Tweet
Credit where it’s due that’s incredible analysis Severn Towers, take a bow!!
-
-
Btw with so many Elliot horses on your list, William Hill go 6/4 Gordon Elliot trains the winner.......Comment
-
If you then add in the won or placed in a chase over 26f+ you whittle it right down to,Originally posted by Seven Towers View Post
BRISTOL DE MAI
TIGER ROLL
DON POLI
MALA BEACH
ONE FOR ARTHUR
REGAL ENCORE
JURY DUTY
DAKLONDIKE
STEP BACK
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT
GENERAL PRINCIPLE
FOLSOM BLUE
Add in horses that have won or placed in a Chase with 18+ runners and you are left with
TIGER ROLL
MALA BEACH
ONE FOR ARTHUR
REGAL ENCORE
JURY DUTY
STEP BACK
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT
GENERAL PRINCIPLE
FOLSOM BLUE
Add in 3 or more seasonal runs and you're down to
TIGER ROLL
JURY DUTY
SINGLEFARMPAYMENT
GENERAL PRINCIPLE
FOLSOM BLUE
Given that Elliott has certainly not been firing on all cylinders this season and currently has only had 8 winners from his last 90 runners, the fact he has four in that little group is a bit of a worry. The alternative is the highly reliable winning machine Singlefarmpayment!!!!!!!Comment
-
Singlefarmpayment is also 41 in the entries list....so potentially bottom weight!! Do you think he will stay?? The furtherst he’s ran is 27F and from his form data he has never ran at Aintree nor Haydock before??Comment
-
My guess is that he will stay. He is by a grand National winning stallion (and third and fifth). His damsire Shardari is also on the dam side of Pleasant Company, there is multiple four mile winning stallion and dual Grand National runner up stallion Supreme Leader in the dam and the much more rare influence of Raise You Ten five generations back. If terrible bad luck hadn't been a part Raise You Ten would have most probably had a Gold Cup winner in Ten Plus. Raise you Ten also produced the highly talented four mile winner Twin Oaks who went off second fav for the 1992 National and finished fifth. The worry in his pedigree is Irish St Leger winner Royal Highway, who like Raise You Ten, wasn't a prolific stallion but produced one stand out horse who could never quite see out the Gold Cup distance namely Wayward Lad.
The long run in is a bit of a worry. He doesn't always like to go past does he? Plus the Tom George stable isn't exactly firing at the moment. Bar one near miss they had a lamentable Festival including Singlefarmpayment.Last edited by Seven Towers; 25 March 2019, 07:32 AM.Comment
-
I did notice he’s only ever won 1 chase race too but then Rule The World has never won a Chase before winning the GN so stranger things have happened. At 50’s I’m happy to back him. Thanks again for the info and analysis Seven TowersComment
-
I've just been reading an article by Donn Mclean - Sporting Life . Where he mentions the Recent ,
Results of Nationals and how Well the 8 year old's have done.
So as a small experiment I am going to Have a small each way bet on all of them.
Or at least add the ones i haven't already backed.
Any one hazard a guess for the bottom weight this year ??.Comment
-
7Towers great analysis, not sure how much work would be involved but id be interested to see what conduit mare profile (stamina) would be for the placed horses. I tend to try and find big priced placed horses and wonder how the placed horses measured up. Many thanksComment
-
It's another interesting angle.
My head wouldn't let me back Singlefarmpayment even if he hit every single trend though. As you pointed out, that long run in is so obviously not going to suit him and the only way to win with him would be to deliver him AFTER the elbow.
There are enough horses I do like without giving that pansy another chance.Comment
-
Great stuff Seven Towers - immense analysis.Comment
-
How does that affect your model Pads? (If at all)Originally posted by PadstheFish View PostComment
-
We'll see after this year! Pedigree is currently involved, but not to this extent, and it's a little late to change things up right now. Tweaks will, I'm sure, be incoming.Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostComment
-
The slight issue I’d have, although it’d be one of the factors I’d consider. With having too much emphasis on bloodlines and breeding is that they’ll all have had worse records initially and other stamina laden bloodlines will always emerge going forward. I’d be more interested in breeding that has shown itself to be no good for this race.
This years race looks easier than previous and up to press my potential winners list is relatively short compared to previous years.
I normally have around 8 on my side.
Will likely do similar this year.
So far, and they’re fairly obvious
My shortlist is
Tiger roll
Rathvinden
Ms parfois
Noble endeavour
Ramses de teiles
Vintage clouds
I’ll add two or three more I reckon nearer the dayComment
-
Would you do all 8 each way Quevega or a mix of each way and win bets?Comment
-
Nearly all each way.Originally posted by FaugheenTheMachine View Post
Only backed parfois and endeavour so far so will depend on the day and prices.
I doubt I’ll back tiger each way obviously due to price and if he not available 5-1 or bigger I might even leave him or put him in a double with something short in another race.
I used to back a lot more before the day but the £125 free each way money off 365 is a great offer assuming they do it againComment
Comment