2022 Grand National

[Ron]

Runs again tomorrow (Tuesday)

That's 2 prep runs so if he turns up I trust he will be ready to do justice under 10.2 with Harry riding - 66/1

[Hurricane fly]

Easyland out

@kfordequidia
On @equidia @davidcottin confirms that Easysland will not line up in the @AintreeRaces Grand National. He has begun his summer break in Ireland and will return in the autumn. @AtTheRaces

[callhimgamblor]

I always fancy Magic Of Light for this and I have no idea why!

[Quevega]

...Cloth Cap to win at Kelso on Saturday & GN 66-1 Hills

Only just catching up with this thread after backing a few today NRNB.
must admit the favourite looks a good thing and I’d have bet this special all day long. Easy to say in hindsight but with no weight penalty he was always going to go short.

if he’s anywhere near 8-1 on or around the day that’s a cracking price.

discorama would be my second choice if he were to come over.

[i3enno]

Discorama is 40-1 on Bet365 if anybody is interested NRNB

[Eggs]

Only just catching up with this thread after backing a few today NRNB.
must admit the favourite looks a good thing and I’d have bet this special all day long. Easy to say in hindsight but with no weight penalty he was always going to go short.

if he’s anywhere near 8-1 on or around the day that’s a cracking price.

discorama would be my second choice if he were to come over.

.....Cloth Cap was 250-1 to win the Ladbroke & GN. That’s not looking too bad now.

[Quevega]

.....Cloth Cap was 250-1 to win the Ladbroke & GN. That’s not looking too bad now.

Yeah
i saw you’d had that one.
lovely to be sat on that now.
wouldnt have fancied prior to Ladbroke myself but would buy it off you now

[FaugheenTheMachine]

Anyone a clear view on what Rachel Blackmore will ride? Minella Times? It’s the obvious one to back now as a massive shortener on the day if we can decide which one she’ll definitely ride

[Old Vic]

Anyone a clear view on what Rachel Blackmore will ride? Minella Times? It’s the obvious one to back now as a massive shortener on the day if we can decide which one she’ll definitely ride

Possible but she rides more often for Gigginstown than JP. I would imagine the horse that ran in the X Country was the plan but that looks less so now.

[Shergar]

Afternoon all, relatively new forum member here who has been dealing with the post-Cheltenham comedown by trying to narrow down the GN field. I've applied 12 trends to the top 60 odd weights and so far 8 horses meet 10 of 12 trends, including Cloth Cap. There are another 3 or 4 which just miss a few categories and I will add them when I get the chance.

Not a full-proof method to find the winner by any means but perhaps a useful staring point. Thoughts, musings, criticisms welcome. The more holes picked the better;


1. Lake View Lad (10/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won over 24f Y
• Placed over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR Y
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences Y
• 1+ run at Aintree Y
• 1st Grand National N (2019 PU after 27fences)
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f+ N (7 run 24f+)

*Note - last win at Aintree. 0 chase falls/URs


2. Mr Malarky (11/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won over 24f Y
• Placed over 26f N
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR Y
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences Y
• 1+ run at Aintree Y
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f+ Y

*Note No runs over 29f+. 1 chase falls/URs

3. Beware the Bear (10/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won over 24f Y
• Placed over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR N
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences Y
• 1+ run at Aintree N
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f+ Y

*Note best place 7th in over 29f+. Multiple DNFs. 0 chase falls/URs

4. Kimberlite Candy (10/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won over 24f Y
• Placed over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR N
• Last ran 22-49 days N
• <2 falls over fences Y
• 1+ run at Aintree Y
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f+ Y

*Note won previously over 29f+. 0 chase falls/URs

5. Lord du Mesnil (11/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won over 24f Y
• Placed over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR Y
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences N
• 1+ run at Aintree Y
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f+ Y

*Note 2nd previously over 29f+. All wins on soft/heavy. 3 chase falls/URs

6. Potters Corner (10/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won over 24f Y
• Placed over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences N
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR Y
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences N
• 1+ run at Aintree Y
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f+ Y

*Note won previously over 29f+. PU LTO. 2 chase falls/URs

7. Cloth Cap (11/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won over 24f Y
• Placed over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR Y
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences Y
• 1+ run at Aintree N
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f+ Y

*Note last RPR 165, 17lbs above OR 148. 1 chase falls/URs

8. Canelo (10/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won over 24f Y
• Placed over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k N
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR Y
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences Y
• 1+ run at Aintree Y
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f+ N

*Note no runs over 29f+. 0 chase falls/URs

[mayo]

Welcome Shergar.

How many of those are Trevor Hemmings horses ? Incredibly simplistic but have always thought JP McManus looks to buy Champion Hurdlers, Gigginstown Gold Cup winners and Hemmings Grand National winners.

[Shergar]

Welcome Shergar.

How many of those are Trevor Hemmings horses ? Incredibly simplistic but have always thought JP McManus looks to buy Champion Hurdlers, Gigginstown Gold Cup winners and Hemmings Grand National winners.

Cheers Mayo. Hemmings owns Cloth Cap and Lake View Lad. Also #71 Deise Aba who I haven't reached yet but doubt gets in.

[mayo]

Added Lake View lad ew. Going to follow the Hemmings colours throughout the meeting.

[Shergar]

A few I missed and a few more who were close to 10/12 or just of interest;

9. Give Me a Copper (10/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won chase over 24f Y
• Placed chase over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR Y
• Last ran 22-49 days N
• <2 falls over fences N
• 1+ run at Aintree Y
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs YY
• 8+ runs 24f Y

*Note 2 chase falls/URs. Pulled Up LTO. Inclined to discount based on falls/URs.


10. Burrows Saint (9/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won chase over 24f Y
• Placed chase over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR N
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences Y
• 1+ run at Aintree N
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f N

*Note won previously over 29f+. 0 chase falls/URs


11. Ok Corral (9/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won over 24f Y
• Placed over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR N
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences Y
• 1+ run at Aintree Y
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs N
• 8+ runs 24f N

*Note 0 chase falls/URs


12. Talkischeap (8/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won chase over 24f Y
• Placed chase over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR N
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences Y
• 1+ run at Aintree N
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs N (9 chase runs)
• 8+ runs 24f N (7 runs 24f+)

*Note won previously over 29f+. 0 chase falls/URs


13. Bristol de Mai (10/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs N
• Won chase over 24f Y
• Placed chase over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR Y
• Last ran 22-49 days N
• <2 falls over fences Y
• 1+ run at Aintree Y
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f Y

*Note no runs over 29f+. 1 chase falls/URs. Top weight.


14. Ballyoptic (9/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won chase over 24f Y
• Placed chase over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR N
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences N
• 1+ run at Aintree Y
• 1st Grand National N
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f Y

*Note 2nd previously over 29f+. 2 chase falls/URs, both at Aintree.


15. Magic of Light (7/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won chase over 24f N
• Placed chase over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR N
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences N
• 1+ run at Aintree Y
• 1st Grand National N
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f N

*Note 2nd 2019. 2 chase falls/URs.


16. Acapella Bourgeois (9/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won chase over 24f Y
• Placed chase over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR N
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences N
• 1+ run at Aintree N
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f Y

*Note 3rd previously over 29f+. 2 chase falls/URs.


17. Anibale Fly (10/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won chase over 24f Y
• Placed chase over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR N
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences Y
• 1+ run at Aintree Y
• 1st Grand National N
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f Y

*Note 5th in 2019 off 11-10. 4th in 2018 off 11-8. 10-12 2021. 1 chase falls/URs.


18. Any Second Now (9/12)

• Age 8-11 Y
• Weight 10st 3lbs-11st 3lbs Y
• Won chase over 24f Y
• Placed chase over 26f Y
• Won 31k Chase or Placed 51k Y
• Best RPR in last 12months run in last 3 starts over fences Y
• Best RPR in last 12 months 5lbs higher than current OR Y
• Last ran 22-49 days Y
• <2 falls over fences N
• 1+ run at Aintree N
• 1st Grand National Y
• 10+ previous Chase runs Y
• 8+ runs 24f N

*Note 2 chase falls/URs.

[Shergar]

Not wanting to back half the field I am inclined to eliminate the following;

• Beware the Bear (10/12) - Best place 7th over 29f+. Multiple DNFs.
• Potters Corner (10/12) - Won twice 29f+. Too many falls. No form this year. Pulled up LTO. NR at Cheltenham due to inflamation.
• Ballyoptic (9/12) - 2 falls at Aintree.
• Magic of Light (7/12) - 2nd 2019. Never won chase over 24F+. Too many falls.
• Acapella Bourgeois (9/12) - Too many falls.
• Any Second Now (9/12) - Won big handicap chase at Cheltenham. Looks nicely weighted based on recent RPR. Lack of experience over 24f+. Too many falls.
• Give Me A Copper (10/12) - Looks nicely weighted based on recent RPR. 2 chase falls/URs. Pulled Up LTO. No runs in last 22-49 days.
• OK Corral (9/12) - Pulled Up LTO when jumping looked an issue. Inexperienced over 24f+.
• Canelo (10/12) - Meets a lot of trends. Looks nicely weighted based on recent RPR. Only 4 runs 24f+. No runs 29f+. Hasn't beaten much.

Leaving these as my shortlist for the time being;

1. Cloth Cap (11/12) - Meets trends. Well in with weights, last RPR 165, 17lbs above OR 148. *Wants good ground. 4-1
2. Mister Malarky (11/12) - Meets trends. Looks nicely weighted based on recent RPR. No runs over 29f+. Never placed over 26f+. Inexperienced over 26f+ but only 8yo and beaten some decent types. 50-1
3. Lord du Mesnil (11/12) - Meets a lot of trends. Looks nicely weighted based on recent RPR. All wins/places on soft/heavy ground. 3 falls/UR but none in last 11 chases. *Wants soft/heavy. 28-1
4. Lake View Lad (10/12) - Meets trends. 7 runs at 24f+. Won at Aintree. 0 falls. Looks nicely weighted based on recent RPR. 33-1
5. Anibale Fly (10/12) - Gets around clear. 5th in 2019 off 11-10. 4th in 2018 off 11-8. 10-12 now. No form in last 2 years. 33-1
6. Bristol de Mai (10/12) - top weight though looks nicely weighted vs recent RPR, lack of experience of extreme distances. 25-1
7. Kimberlite Candy (10/12) - No recent run. won over 29+ previously. 2nd twice around Aintree. *Wants soft/heavy. 14-1
8. Burrows Saint (9/12) - Won over 29f+. 14-1
9. Talkischeap (8/12) - 7 runs at 24f+ & 9 chase runs. Won over 29f. Beaten some decent types. 66-1