Red Rum Handicap Chase 2015

[mayo]

First mention

Ian McClean

The Grand Annual is frequently a significant feeder into the Red Rum Handicap Chase at Aintree and this year it may pay to look no further than Turn Over Sivola. For a horse whose ideal conditions constitute a flat track on good ground he was granted neither by 5.15 on the Friday at Cheltenham and, not surprisingly, started an unflattering 33/1.

Yet in spite of the conditions, and at least two serious mistakes in probably the most competitive two-mile handicap chase on the calendar, he managed to stay on into fifth, beaten just over seven lengths. Desperately unlucky in the Red Rum last year, when the winner got first run, Alan King's charge will return to Liverpool with an irresistible chance for revenge off just a 5lbs higher mark.

[Sefton]

FORM	HORSE	AGE	WGT	TRAINER RTF%	JOCKEY	OR	TS	RPR
57F732	Arnaud42	7		C Byrnes		—	83	148
84720	Astracad27	9		Nigel Twiston-Davies		132	133	140
-12213	Baby Mix474	7		Warren Greatrex		135	—	—
1-4930	Bellenos27	7		Dan Skelton		135	113	147
33-402	Claret Cloak159	8		Emma Lavelle		153	123	156
336133	Croco Bay27	8		Ben Case		151	138	161
129123	Darwins Fox48F	9		Henry De Bromhead		—	-1	—
5P-114	Definite Dream47	8		Evan Williams		130	97	131
2-4584	Desert Cry12	9		Donald McCain		152	124	160
F6221F	Dresden27	7		Henry Oliver		137	126	137
3-5P32	Eastlake27	9		Jonjo O´Neill		148	118	152
563590	Enjoy Responsibly23	6		Henry De Bromhead		—	114	136
19-P79	Festive Affair27	7		Jonjo O´Neill		127	61	119
3-1U33	Karinga Dancer61	9		Harry Fry		144	132	146
22-494	Ned Buntline27	7		Noel Meade		—	93	150
5-6041	Next Sensation27	8		Michael Scudamore		151	120	156
63-4F8	Oiseau De Nuit146	13		Colin Tizzard		138	126	148
U1P579	Parsnip Pete20	9		Tom George		144	125	148
42211	Pearls Legend34	8		John Spearing		126	124	129
02P870	Pires40	11		A J Martin		—	125	144
313152	Royal Regatta11	7		Philip Hobbs		144	134	152
0-0215	Sew On Target75	10		Colin Tizzard		142	139	144
P44P35	Softsong54F	7		David Pipe		120	92	128
212P22	Solar Impulse75	5		Paul Nicholls		149	134	150
323222	Surf And Turf165	9		Kevin Frost		132	114	136
811237	Ted Veale27	8		A J Martin		—	107	140
21-60F	Witness In Court98	8		Donald McCain		135	98	145

[Yeehaa]

Stats

http://www.attheraces.com/national/article.aspx?hlid=552562&raceid=866997&day=1

First run in 1977, the Red Rum Handicap Chase it is now one of only a couple of high-class two-mile handicap chases guaranteed to attract a decent field left in the Racing Calendar. If down the years you had looked to a novice, preferably aged eight or younger, who came here on the back of a solid run at the Cheltenham Festival and was towards the lower-middle sector of the handicap, then you will have enjoyed a whale of a time of a time of it. Novices have won seven of the last 13 runnings. The BHA Head of Handicapping has made reference to the excellent record of novices in two-mile handicap chases arguing that they are advantaged by the lesser distance they have to travel. By this late stage of the season a novice should have gained a fair bit of experience so their jumping should become more polished so they close to being on a level footing with their older rivals, who, of course, are unlikely to be improving at the same rate of knots, if they are improving at all.

If down the years you had looked to a novice, preferably aged eight or younger, who came here on the back of a solid run at the Cheltenham Festival and was towards the lower-middle sector of the handicap, then you will have enjoyed a whale of a time of a time of it.

Seven of the last 16 winners had previously taken part in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham Festival. No shock of course that the Grand Annual, won this season by Next Sensation whose running style from the front looks even better suited at Aintree, should be the best guide by a considerable margin given that the Red Rum Chase and Grand Annual are the two most prestigious two-mile handicap chases run all season and take place within a month of each other, but to the extent of winning almost half of the last 16 runnings? Yes, the Grand Annual is well represented in the Red Rum but they are still over-performing in a notable way. Although Grand Annual runners have fared well here, it had proven hard going for the winner to double up until fairly recently but successes for Fota Island and Oh Crick in the last 11 years have changed that. Their recent record reads: 31PF192.

Last season’s renewal can also be a good guide and has featured three of the last eight winners. The last winner to be placed in the previous year’s renewal was Flying Instructor who won the 1999 running having found just one too good 12 months earlier. Last season’s 1-2-3-4 were Parsnip Pete, Turn Over Sivola, Claret Cloak and Asracad. Should last year’s winner run in this race for the sixth consecutive year the record of the defending title holder over the last decade reads: 27P9RF6.

In victory at the age of 11 two years ago Oiseau De Nuit became only the second horse aged 10+ to win this handicap in the last 26 years. Given the high success rate of novices, it will not come as surprise to note that horses aged in double figures have struggled down the years as very few can retain their basic speed once they hit the age of ten so they will have to be very well handicapped to take a race as competitive as this. The only other winner aged 10+ since Prideaux Boy won in 1988 was the Jimmy Fitzgerald-trained Boutzdaroff in 1993 for a stable with a canny knack of winning big handicaps.

Six wins in total for the Irish since this race was first run in 1977 including the very first winner, Skymas, who won under top weight with Mouse Morris in the saddle having won the Queen Mother Champion Chase on his previous start. More latterly, two wins in the last 16 runnings is just an okay return though it is not a race they would tackle in any great depth.

Two years ago the winner became just the second winner in the last 15 years to have carried more than 11st 2lb since 1999. It is also worth noting that two of the last six winners won racing from 5lb out of the handicap so I suggest we stay loyal to horses set to carry not much over 11st at the very least. Eleven of the last 17 winners of this handicap were sent off in the first five in the betting and four of the last seven winners were ridden by conditional jockeys claiming an allowance to compensate for their lack of experience.

[mayo]

Bellenos is pricewise and was overpriced at 25s.

Like Ted Veale and Ned Buntline in this.

[MrMcGoldrick]

Bellenos is pricewise and was overpriced at 25s.

Like Ted Veale and Ned Buntline in this.

Ted Veale has had an unusual campaign this year hasn't he, must be some method in the madness, Tony Martin is a real shrewdie

[mayo]

Ted Veale has had an unusual campaign this year hasn't he, must be some method in the madness, Tony Martin is a real shrewdie

or gangster

had a good weekend at Fairyhouse.

[Istabraq]

Dresden was running a cracker in the Grand Annual before coming down at the 4th last and is one who can go very close in a very tough heat

[Morning Glory]

Dresden was running a cracker in the Grand Annual before coming down at the 4th last and is one who can go very close in a very tough heat

More I looked at this the more confused I got.

[waywardlad]

Surf and Turf is one at a price here. Very consistant type and has an easy win under his belt on the course and ran a good second to Parsnip Pete here in October. 40/1EW a massive price.

[mayo]

More I looked at this the more confused I got.

I know what you mean. Have added Surf and Turf now too.

[Old Vic]

Surf and Turf is one at a price here. Very consistant type and has an easy win under his belt on the course and ran a good second to Parsnip Pete here in October. 40/1EW a massive price.

Brillant tipping.

[Istabraq]

Surf and Turf is one at a price here. Very consistant type and has an easy win under his belt on the course and ran a good second to Parsnip Pete here in October. 40/1EW a massive price.

Hats off to you Sir.....

[Faugheen_Machine]

Wow, excellent work waywardlad. Superb.