Saturday 2 march thread

[Guest]

Calling out bitchy

Think old vic is a big fan of catching pigeons ,,,couple of tips here ,,,

A contender alongside Sam Waley-Cohen for being the best-spoken member of the weighing room, De Boinville has gone from strength to strength in the saddle this season and his booking to partner Night In Milan for the William Hill Grimthorpe Chase is most interesting.

The Reveley team are in cracking form at present, as evidenced by a double at Donny on Friday, and this race has been on the agenda for Night In Milan almost as soon as he was edged out in a similar contest at this track in December.

He didn't stay the trip at Catterick subsequently, but has had a long time to get over those exertions and he has a good chance of reversing course form with Court By Surprise - the trainer expects this better ground to suit and reckons stablemate Corkage could even give him a one-two.

Cry Of Freedom shaped with promise on his seasonal return at Musselburgh last month and although the second and fourth-placed horses have been beaten since, the suspicion is that the form of that race is quite strong.

With three winners from eight runners in the last fortnight, John Ferguson's stable remains in decent form and the trainer expects this horse to appreciate the better ground in the two-mile Ladbrokes Supporting Greatwood Handicap Hurdle at Newbury.

However preference in the same race goes for another horse making the trip from East Anglia, The Betchworth Kid. He shaped quite nicely on his first start since rejoining Michael Bell when midfield in the Totesport Trophy last month and seems to be enjoying life back at his old yard. (Bell, incidentally, managed to bring Newmarket to a virtual standstill last week when - just like the good old days - marching most of his string down the High Street on their way to the gallops).

Andy Turnell, one of the most popular trainers in the Lambourn Valley, could do with a pick-me-up after a recent serious health scare and Micheal Flips might just be able to provide it in the Stan James Supporting Greatwood Gold Cup.

Good ground, testing fences and a flat track bring out the best in this horse - as he showed when chasing home For Non Stop in a Grade One at this track last season.

Conditions haven't been ideal for him for most of this season but he ran notably well in a hot jumpers' bumper against some pacier sorts last time out and back down to the same handicap mark from which he was last successful (in a race where the form worked out very well), everything is in place for a big run. Get well soon, Andy.

Bradbury gets a good shout from the Pigeon's Cheshire cousin on his first start over jumps since joining Donald McCain in the Charlton Baker Supporting Greatwood Handicap Hurdle.

He won nicely on the all-weather on his latest start and is fancied to replicate that return to form back over hurdles - especially as he has clearly been crying out for this move up in trip.

Act Alone is a good free-moving type and carries the colours of locally-based owners in the closing bumper. You won't get rich backing Henderson's bumper horses, but he's one of the better ones.

Finally, it was good to see Sir Henry Cecil's team move up a gear with some fast work on the Al Bahahtri all-weather gallop last Saturday.

Shane Featherstonehaugh, for the last two years married to Frankel, has a new partner for the season in Hot Snap, a three-year-old Pivotal half-sister to Midday. Is this a sign of high hopes for the season to come?

[mayo]

The Donn

There are angles. Take today’s feature race, the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury. Garynella has been the talked-about horse all week, and it is easy to see why. A David Pipe-trained nouveau French import, it is no wonder that the bookmakers are playing defensively after Ballynagour was backed from big prices down to 7/4 favourite for a handicap chase at Warawick last Saturday, and won with any amount in hand. 20lb, actually, according to the official handicapper, and he is still favourite for just about every Cheltenham handicap (even the County Hurdle, no kiddin’) even off his revised rating.

Garynella is not Ballynagour. Not yet anyway. Importantly, all Garynella’s good form in France was on soft ground. All five of his wins over hurdles and fences have been on ground that was officially described as either soft or very soft. His only run in Britain was in the two-mile handicap chase that Shooter’s Wood won at Cheltenham’s December meeting, and in which he ran well for a long way until the winner ran away from him from the home turn. But that was also on soft ground.

He may handle today’s ground, he may improve for it, but there is no real reason to think that he will. David Pipe’s comment in today’s Racing Post, that “this sounder surface may suit him better” is non-committal, and watching his action at Cheltenham, it wasn’t screaming good ground.

He may well win today, a mark of 130 may under-estimate his ability, but he was well-backed for his British debut in December, and he was well beaten there off a mark of 132, so it may be that a mark of 130 is no better than fair. He is short enough for all of that at around 4.5.

Taking on Pipe and Nicholls in the Greatwood Gold Cup may not be the most astute course of action ever taken, given that, between them, the Pipes (Martin and David) and Paul Nicholls have produced seven winners of the last seven renewals. Even when there was a dead-heat in the race in 2006, it was between the Nicholls-trained Cornish Sett and the (Martin) Pipe-trained Horus.

The Knoxs is more difficult to take on at a bigger price. It’s not a ground thing with him. On the contrary, The Knoxs should love the ground. It is a worry that Ruby Walsh goes to Doncaster to ride Join Together in the Grimthorpe Chase instead of going to Newbury. Ruby always rides in this race for Nicholls. Even in 2011, when it looked like Meanus Dandy had a better chance of winning the Grimthorpe Chase than Niche Market had of winning the Greatwood, Ruby stayed at Newbury.

Okay, so Join Together is a potential Grand National horse for Ruby, he is going to have to choose between him and Graham Wylie’s two horses at some point and it makes sense to that end that he rides him in a race. And he also rides Themilanhorse and Toubab and Aaim To Prosper at Doncaster. But it is still not a positive.

The Ruby factor aside, The Knoxs is a risky proposition. There is no questioning his ability, and he still has the potential to be better than his handicap mark despite the fact that he is 10 now. He is a lightly-raced 10-year-old. He probably would have beaten Bless The Wings over this course and distance last time had he not crashed out at the final fence, and a 2lb hike for that is no harsh.

His jumping is always going to be a worry. His record over fences reads FF1171F. He has fallen as often as he has won. That said, this has probably been his target for a while, he was probably avoiding the deep winter ground. If you are happy to take a chance on his jumping, then you should probably get him on side at around 6.4. He is a stakes-saver for me.

My main bet in the race is Pepite Rose. She looks over-priced at 8.0. Venetia Williams’ mare has been disappointing on her only two runs this term to date, but both of those were on unsuitably soft ground and, actually, the first of those wasn’t that bad at all, when she finished third in a decent handicap chase at Ascot, on ground that should have been softer than ideal and over a trip that should have been shorter than ideal.

It is probable that Venetia has put her away for the winter, off the deep winter ground, and trained her for a spring campaign. It is probable that the trainer has had this race in mind for a while.

Three big things in the mare’s favour: the ground will be ideal, she loves Newbury, and she seems to come alive at this time of year. Her best run over hurdles was at Warwick in February 2011, and she won four chases on the spin last year between late February and late March. Significantly, two of those races were at Newbury, one of them the novices’ handicap chase on this card last year.

She does have a higher handicap mark to overcome this year, but she was rated 150 after the fourth of those four wins, and she has won off a mark of 135, so a mark of 144 should be more than manageable. She is a lovely mare, a really efficient jumper off good ground, and she is only six with just seven chases on her cv, so she still has plenty of scope for progression. Her trainer’s horses remain in top form, and she should run well.

[mayo]

Pepite Rose added.