Racing Plus Chase 2013

[Old Vic]

Our bit here.

http://www.fatjockey.com/festivals/racing_festivals.php?Kempton-Racing-Plus-Chase-Trends-179

Confirmations tomorrow ?

[cheltenham]

Opening Batsman

"We didn't want to run from out of the handicap, but with Captain Chris running on Saturday, the weights should be going up," Fry told www.stanjames.com.

"By the sounds of it, What A Friend will end up top-weight, putting us on 10st 5lb, which is a very attractive weight.

"It's a big step up in class, but we're a horse going the right way over fences and we'd rather take our chance while we're on the way up than waiting 12 months when the handicapper's got us.

"He's never been better, he's in great form with himself. We think three miles will suit with the ground drying up, certainly over the weekend and the beginning of next week.

"I'm really looking forward to him taking his chance in that and I'm expecting him to run a very big race."

[Statto]

Not much of a cheltenham trial

Mysilv was remarkably one of eight Cheltenham Festivals winners to have run on today’s Kempton card back in 1994 with that afternoon's Racing Plus Chase featuring no less than four of those winners. However, this three-mile handicap chase has gone very quiet as a Cheltenham pointer of late as La Landiere was the last Festival winner to contest this valuable Grade 3 handicap when winning the now defunct Cathcart Chase ten years ago.

[Morning Glory]

Gary Nutting

ROLLING ACES can come up trumps for Paul Nicholls in a fascinating renewal of the Racing Plus Chase.

Surprisingly the champion trainer has won the big Kempton handicap just once, courtesy of Gungadu five years ago.

But in Rolling Aces he has a fast-improving novice who promises to go on to another level now he steps up to three miles for the first time over fences.

The moral 'winner' of a Taunton hurdle over that distance last season (he was beaten half a length in a driving finish by Imperial Circus, to whom he was conceding 7lb), the seven-year-old is living up to his trainer's prediction that he would be a much better chaser.

A promising third to fancied RSA Chase contender Hadrian's Approach on his fencing debut over 2m3f at Ascot, the gelding impressed with the way he travelled and jumped to land a keenly contested novice handicap over an extended 2m6f at Newbury on Hennessy day.

Carrying top weight, he held off the strong challenge of Merry King with a little up his sleeve and that form received a significant boost when the runner-up was just denied in a bobbing finish by course specialist Cannington Brook in a better-class handicap at Haydock.

He was put up 8lb to a mark of 138 after that success and races off 149 here following his runaway victory in a novice chase at Wincanton on Boxing Day. Again the form has worked out, with runner-up Opening Batsman landing a handicap off 134 next time (now rated 140).

When you consider that Nicholls could have run his Reynoldstown Chase winner Rocky Creek in this off the same mark, the logical conclusion is that he must think Rolling Aces is still ahead of the handicapper and possibly by some way.

So too is ante-post favourite Wyck Hill if David Bridgwater's entry for him in the Gold Cup is anything to go by.

The trainer sent out The Giant Bolster to finish second in last year's blue riband event at Cheltenham, so you have to sit up and take notice when he says Wyck Hill is of a similar calibre.

The nine-year-old's progress over the last season or two has certainly been eye-catching, with four handicap wins from six starts, the latest being his defeat of Katenko from out of the weights at Ascot.

With the latter having since gained impressive wins at Sandown and Cheltenham, and also being talked of in Gold Cup terms by Venetia Williams, it's clear that Wyck Hill remains potentially very well treated off 142, which will see him reoppose Katenko on a staggering 15lb better terms.

The Grand National is also very much on his agenda though and despite having an obvious chance at the weights, I just wonder whether three miles round Kempton on drying ground might prove a bit sharp for him.

The same goes for Katenko, who has done all his winning in very testing conditions. He's a huge horse with physical scope for more improvement, but the handicapper has not taken kindly to his latest success, which may not have been so clear-cut had Our Mick not capsized when still travelling strongly three out.

No preview of this race would be complete without a mention of Nacarat, who has become part of the furniture with two wins, a second and third in the last four renewals. He's only a pound higher than when scoring 12 months ago and can't be discounted despite approaching bus-pass age.

[Cooper]

Dicky Dunwoody

This race was kind to me during my riding days with wins on Desert Orchid, Rough Quest and Dr Leunt , and the last-named was the first of four Racing Plus Chase wins for trainer Philip Hobbs. With that in mind it goes without saying to keep a close eye on anything the Hobbs team run, while with five career victories in the race then in terms of jockeys Richard Johnson has the best record in the contest.

However, the biggest story of all revolves around the popular grey Nacarat. Tom George's charge has won this 3m Chase twice before - In 2009 and, of course, 12 months ago when he turned back the clock to land the prize by 11 lengths. He's only rated a 1lb higher this time and despite his advancing years (now 12 years-old) this has clearly been a big target for him, while after two runs this season connections should have him spot-on for another tilt at this decent pot.

Since 1988 we've seen nine horses aged in double-figures win the race, while Marlborough was the same age as Nacarat (12) when he won the contest back in 2004. The fact he was also placed in the 2010 and 2011 renewals makes him a really solid each-way option, but if there is one word of caution it would surround the ground. He's certainly at his best on a slightly quicker surface (both wins in this race came on good ground), but it is worth pointing out he's been second in this on soft ground and has also won on a heavy surface over in France, albeit back in his younger days.

So if past races are anything to go by we know older horses have gone well, but by far the best age to have on your side (if recent runnings are anything to go by) is the 8 year-olds as they've won 5 of the last 10. While being a handicap then with 9 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more it could pay to focus of those at the head of the weights.

It's also generally been a race that punters get right with 80% of the last 10 winners coming from the top 4 in the market with the average winning SP being 7/1, although we've only seen 2 winning favourites in that period too. Also make a note of any horses that had raced within the last 2 months as 8 of the last 10 fell into that bracket, while 90% of the last 10 finished in the top 5 last time too.

We'll have to keep an eye on final entries later in the week, but at this stage Paul Nicholls, who won this back in 2008 with Gungadu, could have a leading chance with his Rolling Aces. He's won his last two starts in impressive fashion and despite another 11lb hike in the ratings looks a horse on the upgrade with just seven starts under rules to his name.

Wyck Hill, who is also entered in both the Gold Cup and Grand National, is the other horse that's popular in the betting at this stage and a win here will surely see his Aintree odds tumble - he's currently around 25/1.

David Bridgwater's charge was last seen beating Katenko by four lengths at Ascot back in December and we all know what that horse has gone onto do. Yes, a 9lb rise in the ratings makes life harder and, of course, Katenko, who is also entered for this race, has improved since, but Wyck Hill could still be extremely well-in being that there was little between them back in December and because of Katenko's improved form the Venetia Williams-trained horse is now rated a massive 16lbs higher.

There is some talk of another wave of cold weather hitting the country later in the week, let's just hope if that is the case it doesn't venture as far south as Sunbury-on-Thames and put this race in threat. For me, if he takes his chance, and despite his advancing years Nacarat looks the safest option in a race he simply loves.

Racing Plus Trends and Stats

10/10 - Officially rated 141 or higher

9/10 - Won a class 2 chase or better previously

9/10 - Won over at least 3m (fences) previously

9/10 - Placed in the top 5 in their latest race

9/10 - Won with 10-13 or more in weight

8/10 - Priced 8/1 or shorter

8/10 - Raced within the last 8 weeks

8/10 - Winners from the top 4 in the market

7/10 - Won by a horse aged 9 or younger

7/10 - Winning distance - 2 ½ lengths or further

7/10 - Won at least 4 times over fences previously

7/10 - Officially rated between 141 and 150

6/10 - Ran within the last 4 weeks

6/10 - Carried 11-5 or more in weight

6/10 - Won their last race

5/10 - Won by a French-bred horse

5/10 - Won by a horse aged 8 years-old

3/10 - Ran at Cheltenham last time out

3/10 - Went onto run in that season's Grand National (all unplaced)

2/10 - Ridden by Richard Johnson (won it 5 times)

2/10 - Ridden by AP McCoy

2/10 - Ridden by Paddy Brennan

2/10 - Won by the Tom George yard

2/10 - Won by the Philip Hobbs yard (won it 4 times in)

2/10 - Favourites (1 joint)

2/10 - Ran in the King George VI Chase last time

1/10 - Went onto run at that season's Cheltenham Festival (1 winner)

The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 7/1

Note: The 2006 running was run at Sandown Park

Have a great week!

Richard

Follow Richard here:

Twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/DunwoodyRacing

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[Old Vic]

Wyck Hill, Rolling Aces, Duke Of Lucca, Quinz, Hector's Choice, Nacarat, Opening Batsman, Same Difference, Roberto Goldback,
What A Friend, Quantitativeeasing, Summery Justice and Mister Hyde

[Yeehaa]

Andy Gibson another for rolling aces

ROLLING ACES
He won just one of his four races as a hurdler and finished last season rated 128 in that sphere. He has since been upgraded to a 136 hurdler since his exploits over fences. He had a breathing operation in the summer and made his seasonal debut at Cheltenham in October over the smaller obstacles. Paul Nicholls stated pre–race that his horse would need the run and so it proved as Rolling Aces appeared to be the most likely winner at the top of the hill before tiring and fading into fourth place at the finish.

He was held up out the back on his chasing debut over an inadequate trip of two miles and three furlongs at Ascot; he was never in with a chance of winning the race but finished strongly into third place behind Hadrian’s Approach and The Druids Nephew. He improved on his second start over the larger obstacles when stepping up in trip to two miles and six and a half furlongs at Newbury. He jumped impeccably on the day and, although he was a little outpaced early in the home straight he eventually came home very strongly to run out an authoritative albeit narrow winner of the Fulke Walwyn Trophy.

In his latest chase on heavy going at Wincanton he briefly looked in trouble turning in but then ended up winning easily from one of today’s rivals Opening Batsman who will probably be seen in a better light on less taxing ground. An 11-pound rise for this victory against a relatively weak field most of whom could not cope with the conditions does appear rather harsh; conversely, I though he won at Newbury with a lot more in hand than it looked and did well to get away with just an eight pound rise on that occasion.

The form of that contest was boosted by the runner up Merry King being just held at Haydock and the third home Handy Andy winning back at Newbury next time out. Rolling Aces is currently the 7/2 second favourite for the Racing Plus Chase; however, in my opinion, although I think his price is about right, if he lines up on the day I would have him as the clear favourite as I believe he would be the most likely winner of the race.

[mayo]

Barry G

I think you’ll see a different ROBERTO GOLDBACK (3.50) in the Racing Plus Chase and we are certainly contenders in a race that is always tricky.

I would advise putting a line through his last couple of runs simply because he ground was just too heavy and he couldn’t perform.

This will be the best he’s been on since winning at Ascot in early November when he was put up 12lb which was harsh.

He’s been lowered 3lb for his last run on heavy at Sandown and is now only 4lb higher than when he beat Duke Of Lucca in the Ascot race.

But this is a really hard race to call and although I expect him to finish closer that he did to Wyck Hill at Ascot before Christmas it’s still going to be hard despite a stone turnaround.

There are several other improving young chasers to be concerned about, too, including Rolling Aces and Opening Batsman.

It’s also possible that this sharper track might not play to the strengths of my lad who does like a test of stamina. On the plus side, there are going to be several that want to press on, including Nacarat and Wyck Hill so that might help from four out.

[Old Vic]

Simon holt fancies top two and this one

Meanwhile, Same Difference ought to have 6lb more to carry following his excellent third behind two higher-rated rivals, Unioniste and Hadrians Approach at Newbury but that effort came after the weights for this race were published.

Previously, Nigel Twiston Davies's gelding had bolted up at Leicester where he jumped exuberantly on that right handed track and this circuit could suit him well.

To be honest, it is difficult to choose between these three exciting chasers but, to me, Same Difference looks over-priced at around 12/1 and, off just 10st2lb, must have a great each-way chance.

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Donn likes the Duke


All week, the ante post market for today’s Racing Plus Chase has been dominated by Wyck Hill and Rolling Aces. Both progressive chasers, both potentially high-class, both potentially a fair way ahead of their handicap marks.

Wyck Hill’s chance was enhanced on Wednesday when news filtered through that he had been purchased by JP McManus. Not because horses run faster in the go-fast green and gold hoops than they do in any other silks, but because it meant that AP McCoy was going to be on board, and lots of horses do run faster for the champ than they do for anyone else. (Ref. unbeaten in 17 championships, soon to be 18.)

It is difficult to pick holes in Wyck Hill. There is very little not to like about him. He jumps well, he stays, he is progressive, and he showed in his last two races against Fill The Power and Katenko that he has guts a-plenty.

Of the top pair, however, Rolling Aces represents better value for me at respective odds. There is a small chance that people are getting carried away with the Katenko form with Wyck Hill. Here’s the theory: Wyck Hill beat Katenko by four lengths at Ascot, getting just 1lb. Katenko won his next two races impressively, and is now rated 22lb higher than he was for the Ascot race. Wyck Hill gets to race today off just a 7lb higher mark compared to the Ascot race, ergo Wyck Hill could be a really well-handicapped horse.

It is true, he could be a really well-handicapped horse, but not because Katenko is now rated 22lb higher. There is no question that Katenko has improved dramatically since Ascot. He is a seven-year-old staying chaser, the type that can progress through the stratosphere when they happen to get on that upward curve. When he won last time at Cheltenham, he recorded a Racing Post Rating of 162, coincidentally exactly 22lb higher than the Racing Post Rating that he recorded in the Ascot race.

If Katenko was in today’s race, he would be giving Wyck Hill 16lb and he would be challenging him for favouritism. If Katenko was in the race and giving Wyck Hill just 1lb, as he was at Ascot, he would be 7/4 favourite.

There is no doubt that Wyck Hill is progressive in his own right, he has raced just six times over fences and he looked to be on an upward curve even before Ascot. However, he is nine years old, and there is just a chance that his rate of progression may not be as upwardly steep as Katenko’s, or as Rolling Aces’, for that matter. Also, he has run twice at Kempton, and he has been beaten on both occasions. There is a chance that three miles around the Sunbury track on drying ground may not present the stamina test that suits the David Bridgwater-trained horse so well. Remember, he is on track for the Grand National after this, possibly the Gold Cup if he wins today. He is all stamina.

There is at least as much to like about Rolling Aces as there is about Wyck Hill, possibly a little more. Like Wyck Hill, he has won his last two races. The Newbury race that he won on his penultimate run has worked out to be one of the most solid handicap chases run in Britain or Ireland this term. Runner-up Merry King was beaten just a nose by course specialist Cannington Brook in the Tommy Whittle Chase at Haydock on his next run off a 6lb higher mark and is now rated 11lb higher than he was at Newbury. Third-placed Handy Andy won a good handicap chase back at Newbury next time and is now 8lb higher. Fourth-placed Listen Boy won a novice chase on his sole subsequent run. Fifth-placed Bennys Mist won a handicap chase at Taunton on his next run. Even 12th-placed Godsmejudge finished second in the Classic Chase at Warwick on his next run, then won a novices’ chase back at Warwick, and is now rated 11lb higher.

Rolling Aces himself came out and won well at Wincanton next time, galloping on well once his stamina kicked in over an inadequate two miles and five furlongs to beat Opening Batsman, who also won on his next start and who re-opposes today. Even on 7lb better terms (not including the rider’s claim), however, it is difficult to see Harry Fry’s horse reversing placings.

Paul Nicholls’ horse has been raised another 11lb for that, so he is now 19lb higher than he was at Newbury, and that is a significant hike, no question. However, he is only seven (two years younger than Wyck Hill), he has raced just three times over fences in his life (three fewer than Wyck Hill) and just seven times in total under Rules (seven fewer than Wyck Hill). He has more scope for progression than the favourite.

Also, the fact that he had the pace to win over two miles and five furlongs at Wincanton, albeit on heavy ground, suggests that he should have the pace for Kempton’s sharp flat track. By the same token, however, he should improve for stepping back up to three miles. Three miles on a flat right-handed track (he has won twice at Wincanton) is probably his optimum. As well as all that, he has Ruby Walsh – absent for his last run at Wincanton – for company again. He is rock solid and he represents a little bit of value at around 5.4.

It is not a two-horse race, mind you. Same Difference was interesting, although his price has gone overnight since he became the Pricewise horse. Old-stager, course specialist and dual winner of this race Nacarat is interesting on the drying ground, as is Roberto Goldback, a distance behind Wyck Hill and Katenko in the Ascot race, but back on goodish ground now for the first time since he scuppered the Grand National plan by winning at Ascot in November on his first run for Nicky Henderson.

However, Duke Of Lucca may be the most interesting of those available at bigger prices. Philip Hobbs’ horse finished second, nine lengths behind the winner Roberto Goldback in that Ascot race, but he is now 8lb better off. Also, he didn’t have the best of luck in that race, he was hampered at the fourth last fence just as the pace was increasing, and he should be able to get closer to Roberto today.

More than that, however, he was a nicely progressive chaser towards the end of last season as he began to get his jumping together. Second in the Pendil Chase on this card last year, and at his best on good ground, it is probable that Philip Hobbs has had this race in mind for him since the start of the season. The Hobbs horses are flying these days, and this is a race in which the trainer does particularly well, with two winners and four places to his credit in the race in the last 10 years.

Richard Johnson rides Quinz instead of Duke Of Lucca, but Richard Johnson always rides Quinz (he rode him when he was pulled up on his seasonal return at Ascot last term in a race in which his stable companion Balthazar King finished fifth) and Tom O’Brien, who rode Duke Of Lucca last time at Ascot, is a more than capable deputy.

Duke Of Lucca is back down to a mark of 140, which is 4lb below his peak and 9lb below his peak over hurdles. There could be a big handicap in him off this mark, and it could be today. He also looks over-priced at around 14.

[Lester]

It you are having a bet in this Paddy Power are doing a money back if the horse you back finishes 2nd to Wyck Hill, up to a maximum of E/£100 per customer.

So you could have say £20 on Rolling Aces - Paddy Power's current 4/1 second favourite - and have the added insurance of knowing you will get your £50 back if he finishes 2nd to the AP McCoys mount.

If you're not already registered with Paddy Power we have a free bet deal that gives all new customers up to £200 in free bets.

1.Go to Paddy Power on the link here
2.Click on the 'Open Account' tab
3.Fill-in the online registration form – this will only take a minute or two

[Stumpy]

Harry Fry

I remain very confident about Opening Batsman's chances in the Racing Plus Chase. Schooling went very well on Tuesday – Noel came in and sat on him - and we've never had him better at home. So we go there on an upward curve. Yes, he's a novice but he had experience in the point-to-point field before he ever ran under rules so we know he's jumped from an early age. Those point-to-points were over three miles so the trip suits and we think going right-handed on better ground at Kempton will play to his strengths.

Rolling Aces beat us on Boxing Day but we're in receipt of nine pounds this time and it was quite testing at Wincanton. We've been running over two-four, two-five on the winter ground that we've had so far. The idea was always come the spring or whenever we felt the time was right, when we wanted to step up a grade we'd be going up in trip on better ground. It's a big step up for him but we go there hoping for a very big run.

He's been a great fun horse for the owners, The Twelfth Man Partnership. For most of them it's their first involvement in a racehorse and it's a big day out for them. They're thoroughly enjoying where he's taking them and they certainly know how to enjoy it which is the way to treat it.

Wyck Hill holds Gold Cup and National entries so obviously he's highly thought of. He's also just changed ownership. I think he's progressing, he deserves to be favourite and he'll take a bit of beating. But for any horse race, you can never be afraid of one horse and obviously we'll know more in a few hours.

I've seen some tweets suggesting it would be Nacarat's swansong. It's his fifth appearance so we know he loves the place and you've got to love his front-running style. It's going to be a fascinating race and a real spectacle.

[johnno]

Sam Turner

Wealthy owner JP McManus laid out a good sum for WYCK HILL (Kempton, 3.50) this week and the nine-year-old can repay the faith in Saturday Racing Plus Chase.

McManus has never been afraid to snap up horses that have taken his eye, Tap Night and Jezki are just two other examples this season, and in Wyck Hill he has a horse whose form is beginning to stack up nicely.

The selection’s four-length defeat at Ascot of an upwardly mobile Katenko, himself a dual winner subsequently, reads very well and he won’t be inconvenienced if the ground dries at all as he has victories on a decent surface on his cv.

Not that Wyck Hill will have everything his own way as Rolling Aces and Opening Batsman are both working their way through the grades and should find conditions to their liking.

However, David Bridgewater’s strong stayer is just the type of ride that Tony McCoy should excel on as he gives his all and for that reason he gains the nod.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/rac...#ixzz2LiZ8NvRk

[Old Vic]

Going to take a chance that improving ground will see Roberta Goldback in the mix today. Backed ew at 14s.