Irish Grand National 2013

[Lester]

Another one from Gary OBrien

Looking ahead to Monday’s Irish National, having already put up Goonyella I think it’s also worth having something on the progressive COMPETITIVE EDGE. Conor O’Dwyer’s charge battled well to land a gamble at Leopardstown in January before bolting up in a much more competitive affair at Gowran Park earlier this month, resulting in a 14lb rise which still leaves him on a nice weight for this test. Both those successes came over much shorter distances and there is clearly a major question mark over the Presenting gelding as he now steps up to 3m5f. However there is certainly some encouragement in his pedigree as regards his prospects of staying the marathon trip are concerned, and with AP McCoy in the plate I feel odds of 22/1 seriously underestimate the chance of a horse on a serious upward curve.

[Lester]

Quotes

Paul Nolan


The seven-year-old relishes heavy ground and a real test of stamina, and Nolan has booked Katie Walsh with Davy Russell unable to consider him for the ride due to his light weight.

Russell instead partners Panther Claw's stablemate, Sweeney Tunes, while Nolan also runs the outsider Carloswayback.

"If someone had said to me a couple of months ago Panther Claw would be running in an Irish National I'd have asked them what they were on but he's improved and relishes testing conditions," said Nolan.

"The trip shouldn't be an issue but you never know until you try. He has a lovely light weight and hopefully he can give Katie Walsh a nice spin.

"Sweeney Tunes has got the class but also has the weight. I wouldn't have minded it to dry up a bit as he's a nice moving horse but he won't get it.

"Again there's a question mark over the trip but nobody knows what will stay and he deserves to take his chance, he's an improving novice and won his Grade Two the last day.

"Davy's picked him and I hope he's right. Carlos looked a nice horse in his younger days but he's been a savage disappointment. He's got a rating that allows him to run here so the lads wanted to let him take his chance.

"He could win or be pulled up, that's just him."

Despite owners Gigginstown House Stud running five, Russell's choice effectively boiled down to Sweeney Tunes versus Dessie Hughes' Magnanimity, who will now be ridden by man-of-the-moment Bryan Cooper.

"It was very hard picking between the five (Gigginstown horses) but in the end it realistically came down to the weight which meant it was either Sweeney Tunes or Magnanimity, and really it was a toss of a coin between them," said Russell.

"Magnanimity might possibly want a bit nicer ground."

Another Gigginstown representative is Gordon Elliott's Romanesco, third under Nina Carberry in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham.

He will be ridden by Danny Mullins, who said: "I've been talking to Nina Carberry about him and she said he gave her a good feel at Cheltenham.

"He's run in a few big handicaps this year and run well. It's a long way round and you never know, there's plenty of runners and it will be great to have a ride - he must have a bit of a chance."

Noel Meade runs both Muirhead and Cross Appeal but both would prefer better ground.

"Muirhead ran OK last time and although it's an extreme trip, I don't think the distance will be a problem. The biggest worry for him is the ground. If it's drying out, on fresh ground on Monday it would be OK, but he does need it to dry up," said Meade.

"Cross Appeal is in good form too but the ground is the thing with him, too. He twinged his back and hasn't been 100% himself but I'm a lot happier with him. He just could do with it drying out."

Heading the market for the three-mile-five-furlong contest is the Liz Doyle-trained Rich Revival, unbeaten in three starts over fences.

County Wexford-based Doyle feels her progressive nine-year-old has plenty going for him, but is not taking anything for granted.

Doyle said: "He's all set to go. I'm very, very happy with him. He has a nice racing weight (10st 4lb) and it should be nice, safe ground. He's a horse who jumps so well and travels so well in his races - he has won a handicap over two and a half (miles).

"I know he's the favourite, but we're not feeling any pressure, to be honest with you. You can't go there expecting to rock up and win a race like the Irish National, but obviously he's fancied and he has every chance.

"He ticks all the boxes in that he jumps well and he's a progressive novice. Hopefully Noel O'Brien (Irish handicapper) has left us a bit to work with. We just have to hope for a bit of luck in running."

Goonyella is an interesting contender for Jim Dreaper.

The six-year-old is a prolific point-to-point winner and has run well in three hunter chases so far this season, most recently finishing third behind dual Foxhunter hero Salsify at Leopardstown. He makes his handicap debut off a mark of 127.

Dreaper said: "We're throwing him in at the deep end a bit, but it's a big prize and we'll give it a go. He's not the top hunter chaser around, so we're putting him into a handicap for the first time and we'll just have to see how he gets on."

Home Farm looked smart when winning over fences at the third attempt at Fairyhouse in February and trainer Arthur Moore is keen to see how he fares over this longer distance.

Moore said: "We know it's a big ask, but at the same time there is only one Irish National a year and we've got to go for it.

"He jumped very well round Fairyhouse the last day and hopefully it will be a good experience for him. The drying ground isn't really a concern and we're looking forward to seeing how he gets on."

Leading owner JP McManus has two contenders in the Conor O'Dwyer-trained Competitive Edge and John Kiely's Carlingford Lough.

Tony McCoy takes the ride on Competitive Edge, with Niall Madden coming in for the mount on Carlingford Lough.

McManus' racing manager, Frank Berry, said: "Competitive Edge won nicely in Gowran the last day and came out of the race well, but it's a big step up in class and trip for him. We're just hoping for the best.

"Carlingford Lough has been a bit disappointing, but John tells me he's in good form and he creeps into it on a nice weight, so fingers crossed for him as well.

"It's a wide-open race and with the ground the way it is, you never know what will happen. It's nice to have a couple of runners in it and, hopefully, they both have outside chances."

[Lester]

Boyles

Recommended bets
Home Farm @ 12/1

The coming week promises to be an absolute belter for connoisseurs of the jumps game, as they’ll be treated to no fewer than two Grand Nationals within the space of six days – no, that’s not a misprint!
First up before Aintree next Saturday, however, is the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse on Bank Holiday Monday, where the current market leader is Rich Revival on 7/1.
Trained by Miss Elizabeth Doyle, this rapidly improving 9yo novice arrives having won all three of his chase outings to date – the latter being a valuable 3m handicap at Naas three weeks ago (soft) when beating Murchu just under 1l.
So far, he’s done everything right, jumps soundly, and represents the novices who really shone in this race down the years. But, with this bigger, more experienced field in better company over a mile further than he has raced over before, some punters may look elsewhere in the search for value, especially as only one favourite has obliged in the race since 1997.
However, before scanning the field for who might win this year’s renewal, it could pay to digest the following trends based on the last 16 renewals…
15 of the last Irish National 16 winners had a maximum of 13 chase runs.
15 were non-favourites.
15 were Irish or French-bred.
14 took a chase over 2m4f.
14 raced over a minimum of 3m.
14 made the top three during their last four runs.
14 carried 10st12lb or less.
14 were officially rated 121-137.
13 were held up off the pace.
12 were 7-9yo’s.
12 ran in a handicap chase worth £39k or more.
11 raced at Fairyhouse.
Such evidence certainly helps whittle the field down to several likely contenders, and with 14 winners officially rated 137 or lower, Willie Mullins’, Marasonnien, enters the frame having shown enough in three chase runs to suggest he could be suited to this race.
Having had four chase runs in France without success, Marasonnien has since run well in three defeats over fences in Ireland – the last of which was a 5l third over 2m5f here at Fairyhouse (soft). He was fairly one-paced that day, but could be more suited to this kind of trip over 3m6f, though with a career record now reading 0-7 over chases, he’ll need to improve to reward investors taking the 8/1 odds.
Gordon Elliott is a trainer who knows how to win a National, and his 8yo, Romanesco, has shown steady improvement throughout his 15-race chase career, culminating in a career best at the Cheltenham Festival when third in the Fulke Walwyn/Kim Muir Handicap Chase (3m2f, good to soft).
The manner in which he kept on going that day over the longest trip tackled to ate, suggests this kind of test could be what’s required for Romanesco, and should he improve further upped in trip, then 12/1 could look a big price come next Monday evening.
Arthur Moore is another trainer that knows how to ripen a runner for the big day, and has a real chance of going close with the 6yo novice, Home Farm.
Although only raced three times over fences, he showed big improvement here at Fairyhouse last time to win a 2m5f beginners chase by 5l on soft ground when jumping with real zest. If Moore decides to run him, then Home Farm looks attractively priced at 12/1.
However, with four of the last five Irish National winners priced at 33/1, 25/1, 33/1 & 33/1, there are plenty in with chances from that kind of price range, including Jonjo O’Neill’s 7yo novice, Storm Survivor, who lines-up for this having won a small handicap over 3m1f at Bangor in late-February.
While he will need to find much more in this sort of company, the JP McManus runner is going the right way and will represent value at 25/1 if making the cut considering his strong connections.
Sweeny Tunes and Magnanimity are another of the leading contenders for this prestige event at around 12/1, but both are rated 140, which may be a touch too high based on the record of past winners, as mentioned earlier, therefore, the one who looks good at current odds of 12/1, Home Farm makes most appeal at this stage.

[Morning Glory]

Irish Grand National: Timeform's runner-by-runner guide

Timeform look at all 30 runners in the Easter Monday feature, the Irish Grand National over three miles and five furlongs at Fairyhouse.

Junior jumped fluently when making all to regain winning thread in Rehearsal Chase on reappearance. Out of his depth over fences next 2 starts, but produced laboured effort back hurdling at Cheltenham.

You Must Know Me won his sole hurdles start and has quickly made up into a useful chaser, finding only the rejuvenated Dedigout too good in a novice at Naas last time. Jumping already looks a real asset.

Magnanimity put up creditable efforts when runner-up this season, beaten 3½ lengths by Call The Police in minor event at Clonmel on latest. Showed up well for a long way in this last season, but stamina an issue.

Sweeney Tunes has always looked the type to make a better chaser than hurdler and has progressed well since switched to the larger obstacles, scoring easily in a Grade 2 at Naas on latest. Will stay beyond 3m.

Competitive Edge has got his act together over fences recently, following up his Leopardstown win from a 7 lb higher mark at Gowran last time. In good heart, but marked step up in trip looks a real concern.

Cootamundra is yet to strike over fences, but shown plenty of ability in this sphere, including when third to Savello at Leopardstown. Never once shaped as if wanting a test of stamina like this, though.

He'llberemembered is a useful hurdler who has won twice over fences this season, most recently in a 21f Leopardstown handicap. Not so good at Gowran just 6 days later and jumping is a worry in a big field like this.

Home Farm ran out a wide-margin winner of a maiden hurdle at Thurles (2¼m) and transferred that form to fences when beating White Star Line in maiden here on latest start. Should do better and bred to stay well.

Jacksonlady has done well since switched to fences this season, showing useful form to land an 17f handicap at Leopardstown on latest by 3 lengths from Rubert. Fit from Flat, but unproven beyond 2½m.

Muirhead is a hold-up performer who had to work hard to land the odds in minor chase at Galway in September. Best effort since when fourth to Mount Benbulben at Thurles last time, but much more needed now.

Whodoyouthink is a better chaser than hurdler, winning minor event at Punchestown in May. Can be moody, however, and form has been very patchy this term. One to be wary of.

Rich Revival is very lightly raced for a 9-y-o but quickly making up for lost time over fences this season, making it 3 from 3 when landing the Leinster National at Naas on latest. May do better still.

Marasonnien was a Grade 1 winner as a novice hurdler but is yet to prove as effective over fences, third behind Home Farm in a maiden here on latest. Needs to improve, but couldn't be in better hands.

Away We Go showed himself better than ever when winning handicap hurdle here in February and yet to race over fences for this yard. Handicapper taken no chances, but by no means a forlorn hope.

Romanesco's jumping can be sketchy but he posted a useful effort when runner-up to Colbert Station in Paddy Power at Leopardstown in December and ran well when third to Same Difference at Cheltenham on latest.

Cross Appeal won the Paddy Power Handicap Chase at Leopardstown last season, but failed to fire since reappearance and hard to trust on present form.

Jadanli put up his best effort in some time when landing Thyestes Chase at Gowran in January with cheekpieces refitted. Not discredited either start since, but handicapper may well have his measure now.

Questions Answered is a better chaser than hurdler and has produced largely creditable efforts over fences this term, though wasn't quite at his best when only seventh at Leopardstown on latest.

Blazing Beacon is lightly raced for one his age but proved all ability still remains when winning veterans race at Wexford on return, jumping superbly. 8 lb rise should be enough to stop him following up.

Panther Claw is still progressing over fences and beat Saoirse Dun by 1¾ lengths in 16-runner event at Navan on latest, jumping better than last time. Should relish the emphasis being on stamina.

Start Me Up ran creditably when in frame in quite valuable handicap chases earlier this term, but form has rather tailed off since and jumping has long since been a cause for concern.

Carlingford Lough was a winner of 4 of his 6 starts over hurdles, showing useful level of form in the process. Yet to hit same heights over fences, but less exposed than some and could well be on a handy mark.

Imperial Shabra is a prominently-ridden type who is a fairly useful hurdler/chaser on his day. Has been badly out of sorts for a while now, though.

Liberty Counsel often mixes hurdling with chasing, gaining latest win at Kilbeggan in September. Out of sorts last 2 starts and has plenty on from this mark.

Rapidolyte de Ladalka has registered all 3 wins at Catterick, beating Makethe Mostofnow by length for latest success, outpaced back straight but staying on strongly despite looking awkward. Will stay long distances.

Carloswayback was the winner of Punchestown maiden chase last January and third in a Grade 2 the following month. Still went as if in need of the run at Leopardstown on latest, but doubtful stayer here.
*
Goonyella won twice in points prior to taking 3-finisher maiden hunter at Limerick and better form when third the next twice, losing nothing in defeat behind Salsify and Tammy's Hill at Leopardstown.

Our Victoria is a genuine mare who looked on good terms with herself when bagging minor events at Navan and Thurles in September/October. Given a break since failing to fire next 2 starts, but others preferred.

Paddy Pub landed a handicap hurdle last term before finishing fourth in this corresponding race. Looked to be working his way back to form this season, but then had no excuses in Leinster National on latest.

Quietly Fancied was runner-up in Munster National in October, and back to best when taking 11-runner handicap hurdle at Clonmel the following month. Inadequate trip last twice, so entitled to do better here.

Timeform 1-2-3:
1. Sweeney Tunes
2. Home Farm
3. Carlingford Lough

Timeform view:*Sweeney Tunes is an upwardly mobile staying chaser who should relish the emphasis being firmly on stamina and looks the one to side with. Home Farm has the scope to go on improving in staying chases and merits plenty of respect, whilst Panthew Claw, Rich Revival, Goonyella and Carlingford Lough all have to enter calculations.

[Morning Glory]

It is now 49 years since the mighty Arkle lumped 12st to victory under Pat Taaffe for Tom Dreaper, and that family tradition continues, with Dreaper's son Tom saddling Goonyella.

Were the outsider to oblige in the €250,000 handicap, it would constitute the Meath handler's fifth win in the most valuable steeplechase in the land, but that would still leave him five short of his father's mind-boggling record tally.

The legendary Paddy Mullins also won the marathon contest four times, though it is one of the few domestic majors that has so far eluded his champion trainer son Willie. Today, having saddled five winners at Cheltenham last month, Mullins relies on Marasonnien and Away We Go in his quest to etch his name into the race's rich heritage, 15 years after saddling the first of 21 lost causes.

Two-time-winning rider Ruby Walsh has opted for Marasonnien, a popular 10/1 chance to provide a suitable climax to the Closutton stable's all-conquering campaign.

Walsh's sister Katie is booked for the well-fancied Panther Claw, which could make for a tantalising skirmish between the siblings five days ahead of what is increasingly being billed as a showdown between the two on their respective mounts, On Your Own and Seabass, in the Aintree equivalent.

[Morning Glory]

Ray Flanaghan Tips


Fairyhouse 4.50: HOME FARM (11-1, bet 365); CARLINGFORD LOUGH (11-1, General)
My original each way fancy Questions Answered is now a non runner, so I am going to concentrate on a couple of the lightly raced novices who head the market.

Arthur Moore is a man steeped in the traditions of the Irish National having tasted success as both a jockey and trainer and he looks to have a strong contender for this years renewal courtesy of Home Farm.

Although this horse’s inexperience has to be a concern, he created a taking impression winning at Fairyhouse last time and looks to be a horse with plenty of ability. The manner in which he quickened away from a couple of decent yardsticks in Marasonnien and White Star Line was very impressive and he looked a horse with a bright future.

He has another mile plus to travel today but comes from good staying stock and is related to former Gold Cup winner Jodami, through the dam Tynelucy. If his jumping can stand up to the demands of a big-field handicap, he looks to have the engine to make a serious challenge.

Carlingford Lough is too short really based on his chasing form but there is a suspicion that he is capable of producing much more and the drying ground is a significant boost to his chances.

John Kiely’s charge looked a horse on a swift upward curve over hurdles last summer and only seven-years old, there is surely more progression in him. For one reason or another he has failed to sparkle yet over fences, but his early novice form against the likes of Lyreen Legend at Galway looks better now than it appeared at the time.

Kiely has always rated him a stayer and as a half brother to The Tother One, he has fair prospects of staying the distance. He needs to step up considerably to win, but is attractively handicapped if recapturing his form over the smaller obstacles. Encouragingly, he appears to jump fluently enough and perhaps the slightly better ground and longer trip can bring about the improvement needed.

[Old Vic]

Going to have a few £££ on competitive edge. Home farm the other one that interests but pricewised with Carlingford Lough so value gone.

[Old Vic]

Ground has dried out ...


Ground has dried out at Fairyhouse
The going at Fairyhouse is now described as yielding to soft (from soft, soft to heavy in places). The Ladbrokes Irish Grand National (4.50) is the feature on the card. ( 1 hour ago)

[Old Vic]

DESSIE HUGHES last tasted victory in the Irish Grand National in 2003 with Timbera, and has hopes of another victory with Magnanimity in the Ladbrokes-backed marathon at Fairyhouse this afternoon (4.50).

The nine-year-old was pulled up in the race last year, but Hughes believes that a wind op can help Magnanimity's chances this time around, as he said: "He ran well for a long way last year and has had this race as his target again this season. He's had a wind operation, which should help him. I'm expecting a big run."

Magnanimity is one of five Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners in the race for Ryanair boss Michael O'Leary, who is offering a sizeable incentive to the winner of the Racing Post Champion Point-to-Point Bumper (4.10) earlier on the card.

O'Leary will pay connections €200,000 for the winner, and should the horse then land a Graded hurdle next season for Gigginstown a further €25,000 would be paid, with the same amount again due if it can win a Graded chase at any point in its career.

[Old Vic]

4 bookies paying 5 places on the Irish National but not the sponsors

The good guys are ( click on links to get an account)

Bet Victor

Paddy Power

Sky Bet

& Bet365

[mayo]

Donn McClean

f your shortlist for this afternoon’s Ladbrokes Irish Grand National hasn’t really resembled a shortlist for the last few days, then welcome to the empathetic club.

Here was mine. (Mediumsizedlist.) Goonyella, Competitive Edge, Carlingford Lough, Panther Claw, Home Farm, Sweeney Tunes and Jadanli. See what I mean? And Rich Revival.

Actually, I backed Rich Revival a little while ago, when Alfie Sherrin and Back In Focus and Boston Bob and a few others were still among the possibles. Willie Mullins said early on that his two Graham Wylie-owned novices were unlikely, and they were taking a few percentage points out of the market, so it made sense to get involved early. I didn’t expect that Alfie Sherrin would be taken out, mind you. He would have been a player.

Rich Revival is solid though. Liz Doyle’s horse has obviously had his problems, but he was a decent hurdler and he is a better chaser. He is unbeaten in three runs over fences, all three this season, and he looked really good in winning the Leinster National at Naas last time.

He only got home by three parts of a length from Murchu in the end, but that doesn’t tell the full story. He got a little shuffled back as they left the back straight, but he made nice ground from there to strike the front at the second last fence. That was plenty early enough, he doesn’t appear to be a horse who kills himself once he hits the front and, while dour stayer Murchu kept him busy all the way to the line, you always felt that Rich Revival was holding him.

The handicapper has raised him 7lb for that, but that is fair. Murchu is a good handicapper, and Rare Bob was back in third, with the three of them clear of the useful Fever Pitch. It is rock solid form.

There is more. As above, Rich Revival appeared to be only just doing enough, he left the impression that he had more left to give if more had been required. As well as that, that was just his third chase, he has buckets of scope for progression even as a nine-year-old.

Also, that was his first run over three miles over fences, and he put up a career-best. He is all stamina (his dam won over an extended three miles over hurdles) and there is every chance that he will improve again for the step up to three miles and five furlongs.

He won his beginners’ chase on his only run at Fairyhouse, so he is proven over these stiff fences. He is a super jumper, he will relish the testing conditions (he is by soft-ground influence Turtle Island), his trainer’s horses continue in top form and the fact that top weight Junior stayed in the race means that he will race off a lovely racing weight of 10st 4lb. 10/1 about him is more than fair.

Of the others on the mediumsizedlist, Sweeney Tunes just shades it at respective odds. Paul Nolan’s horse ran a cracker to finish second to Farrells Fancy in the Leopardstown Chase over an inadequate two miles and five furlongs in January on his handicap debut, and he was a good winner over two and a half miles at Naas last time. He should improve for the step up to today’s marathon trip, and Davy Russell has chosen to ride him in front of Magnanimity, the other Gigginstown House horse set to carry more than 10st 7lb.

[Lester]

Stan James 5 places now too

[Old Vic]

Two mentions on the thread..

Irish Racing
Liberty Counsel – down the field in the Kim Muir last time. A similar scenario is likely here as she's done her winning on better ground.

Timeform
Liberty Counsel often mixes hurdling with chasing, gaining latest win at Kilbeggan in September. Out of sorts last 2 starts and has plenty on from this mark.

MugsRUS