Argento Chase 2013

[Guest]

£100,000 guaranteed For 5yo+ Weights 5yo.10st 9lb; 6yo+ 11st Penalties after September 2011, a winner of a Class 3 weight-for-age chase or a Class 2 handicap chase 4lb; of a Class 2 weight-for-age chase or a Class 1 handicap chase 6lb; of a Class 1 weight-for-age chase 10lb (half penalties for wins achieved in novices' and beginners' chases in Great Britain and Ireland) Allowances mares 7lb pay £ 500

NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 1321-1 Bobs Worth56 8 Nicky Henderson 171 164 174
12 41-121 Tidal Bay29 12 Paul Nicholls 171 167 174
8 51U1P/ Imperial Commander680 12 Nigel Twiston-Davies 164 — —
14 13PF-4 Weird Al63 10 Donald McCain 164 98 166
5 114-P3 Grands Crus31 8 David Pipe 157 127 158
7 113-P2 Hunt Ball30 8 Keiran Burke 157 142 163
2 110-P4 Calgary Bay49 10 Mick Channon 155 131 161
10 317-3P Midnight Chase29 11 Neil Mulholland 155 153 166
11 P0-112 Quartz De Thaix43 9 Venetia Williams 153 138 154
3 11-051 Cape Tribulation31 9 Malcolm Jefferson 151 131 158
6 1F1-P7 Hey Big Spender21 10 Colin Tizzard 151 76 111
13 47P-21 Wayward Prince49 9 Hilary Parrott Jack Doyle 150 121 155
9 6P07-1 Little Josh49 11 Nigel Twiston-Davies 149 120 152
4 1334-2 Cappa Bleu75 11 Evan Williams 146 147 151

[cheltenham]

Tidal Bay to give Bobs Worth 6lbs ?

[johnno]

Will Hayler

Argento Chase:

Already as short as 3/1 for the Gold Cup, and rightly so with his Hennessy form working out quite so well, Bobs Worth has suffered less disruption than many of his stablemates this season and is understandably likely to go off at a short price to win. His campaign has been kept deliberately light this season and there is nothing but confidence coming out of Lambourn about his chances. However with Tidal Bay probably more likely to run over hurdles in the Cleeve, he may end facing a fairly straightforward task here and it's hard to see how his odds for the Gold Cup could end up dramatically shorter, even were he to win easily.

However Hunt Ball is one to keep an eye on here as his performance is likely to help steer connections towards choosing a Cheltenham target. Owner Anthony Knott has backed Hunt Ball to win a small fortune in the Gold Cup, but the horse could yet be dropped back in trip, especially if he seems not to get the trip up the Cheltenham hill in this contest. He has an alternative entry in the handicap chase over two miles and five furlongs.

Grand National possibles Cappa Bleuand Little Josh would also be worth looking out for if they take their chance. The latter has presumbaly been entered by Nigel Twiston-Davies in the hope that the race cuts up. He needs to finish in the first four in a race over three miles or further in order to qualify for the National and won't be allowed to run unless he can do that in the next two or three weeks. Keep an eye on his entries.

[Lester]

One suspects if Henderson did this there would be uproar

Tidal Bay has a "50-50" chance of running in Saturday's Argento Chase at Cheltenham, Paul Nicholls has revealed.

The rejuvenated 12-year-old will be declared at the overnight stage but he will only take his place in the line-up for the 3m1f110y chase if he responds to treatment for pus in his foot.

The champion trainer has had many horses in this position before, and the Ditcheat handler was upbeat that the Lexus Chase winner would feature at Prestbury Park.

"Tidal Bay has marginally improved and I would now rate his chances of running in tomorrow's Argento Chase at Cheltenham at 50-50," Nicholls said in his Betfair column.

"Without getting technical, we are adopting the normal treatments and procedures in these circumstances.

"A lot can happen in 24 hours. It is all about how he responds to the treatment now, but we are heading in the right direction.

"He will be left in the race at the overnight stage, and we will make a decision in the morning.

"He will be given an hour on the walker this morning, and again this evening, so we will keep him ticking over.

[Yeehaa]

In the absence of Bobs Worth and with Tidal Bay only 50-50 to take part, the Argento Chase may well have been robbed of its significance this year as a genuine Gold Cup trial.

Tidal Bay, who has been suffering from a foot infection this week, is a regular player on this day having finished runner-up twice in this race (including behind Midnight Chase last year) and also winning the Cleeve Hurdle in 2010.

Paul Nicholls has done a fantastic job in bringing this occasionally quirky character back to the top of his game and, after a battling win in a thrilling Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last time (Midnight Chase pulled up), he looks to have a big chance providing the hard race in Ireland - and this troubling injury - do not affect him.

In Tidal Bay's absence, Grands Crus and HUNT BALL would have strengthened claims even though both were pulled up in the Paddy Power Gold Cup here earlier in the season.

After that abject display, Grands Crus was given a breathing operation but it was hard to say if he was back to his best subsequently when third behind Long Run in the King George at Kempton where he travelled as strongly as ever but then emptied somewhat up the home straight.

There has always been a slight suspicion that the grey's stamina wanes beyond three miles and, against rivals most of whom he would beat easily on his best form, this is a day of reckoning.

Hunt Ball's stamina is also not quite assured but he ran very well behind Menorah over two and a half miles at Kempton over Christmas on testing ground and connections are confident he will stay. In receipt of weight from most of the opposition, I just wonder if this hugely improved chaser might be the one to be on.

Of course, the one horse who is thrown-in is former Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander, who receives weight all round. While great to see him back, injury problems have intervened in the last few seasons and, at the age of 12, it remains to be seen if he can return to the form of his glory days.

[Yeehaa]

Aidan Coleman

Quartz De Thaix

I also ride Quartz De Thaix in the Argento Chase. He missed the Welsh National, for which he was among the favourites, due to a small injury.

There are plenty of nice horses in the race and it’s going to be a big test for him.

I think people read too much into the fact that the likes of Tidal Bay have the Gold Cup in their sights instead of the Argento.

Of course Quartz Des Thaix’s big event is the Argento tomorrow, but who knows what else is in store for him down the line? The Gold Cup is a month away and horses like Tidal Bay are still there to do a job. They are fit form racing already this season, this is no prep run and it is still a big prize worth winning at around £50,000. Nobody takes a pot like that for granted.

Of course Imperial Commander is different, as he will improve for a run and is building up to trying to win a second Gold Cup.

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Donn McClean fancies Weird Al.

Might Do Calgary Bay ...won the great yorkshire chase this weekend last year and not convinced by this field. The tidal bay rule 4 is a potential problem though

[Statto]

Argento Chase:
Five of the last seven winners of the Argento Chase have been aged 10 or older
The last favourite to win the Argento Chase was Cyfor Malta in 1999
The last six winners of the Argento Chase were all beaten on their previous start
Midnight Chase has won five of his nine races at Cheltenham

[mayo]

Donn McClean fancies Weird Al.

Might Do Calgary Bay ...won the great yorkshire chase this weekend last year and not convinced by this field. The tidal bay rule 4 is a potential problem though

Donn has a cliff horse


DONN MCCLEAN: WEIRD AGAIN, I’M AFRAID


Weird Al, I said. Ah no, not Weird Al again, he said. ‘Fraid so, I said. (Resigned look, he said.)

Call it a soft spot, call it following Weird Al over a cliff if you will, but perhaps it’s something else. Every race is a puzzle, you try to figure each one out, use all the information and knowledge that you have, try to piece it together, try to decipher the probability and resultant odds that correspond to each horse’s chance of winning the race in your estimation (because every horse in every race has some chance of winning, however small). Then compare that against the odds that are available, and back the one(s) that is (are) most over-priced.

The problem arises when you think that a horse is consistently under-rated and therefore over-priced. If he keeps on losing, there comes a point at which you have to come to the realisation that you might be wrong about him, that, actually, he may not be as good as you thought. Or that you were wrong about his optimum conditions, or that he may not ever have his optimum conditions, or that, actually, the market has been right about him all along and you have over-estimated him.

That point is no doubt coming soon with Weird Al, but it isn’t here yet, and he looks over-priced again at about 13 in this afternoon’s Argento Chase at Cheltenham.

Donald McCain’s horse has a lot in his favour today. Admittedly, he had a lot in his favour in the Lancashire Chase at Haydock last time as well, but there was one key element missing that day: pace.

The Lancashire Chase was a five-runner race, and nothing wanted to lead. As it happened, Ruby Walsh accepted an easy lead on Silviniaco Conti, dictated a pace to suit himself, and rode his rivals to sleep. Not that Silviniaco Conti wasn’t the best horse in the race on the day anyway, he almost certainly was, possibly by a fair way, but the way the race was ultimately run was all against Weird Al.

He was keen early on behind the sedate early fractions, then he got out-paced when they quickened half way down the back straight before staying on again from an impossible positions from the second last fence. He only missed out on third place by a short head, and he finished just seven lengths behind the winner and only four and a half lengths behind Long Run, who won the King George on his next run. Even on the face of it, even without allowing for the fact that the race wasn’t run to suit, that is high-class form.

There should be no problem with pace this afternoon. Midnight Chase likes to be getting on with things, and if anything leads Little Josh, even over an extended three miles, he is probably going too fast. There should be lots of pace on early, and that will be ideal for a hold-up horse like Weird Al, who should be able to settle out the back early, get into a nice rhythm. It should also ensure that stamina will be at a premium, and Weird Al has plenty of that.

The Haydock race was run over three miles dead. The extra furlong and a half today, coupled with ground that will probably be soft and dead, having lain under frost covers for over a week now, will also bring stamina into play, and that should suit well.

There’s more. He has an abundance of talent, as he showed in the Charlie Hall Chase and in the Lancashire Chase last year. Also, he is at his best when he is fresh, so the 63-day break between the Haydock race and today’s is in his favour, as is the fact that this will be just his second run of the season. On top of all of that, he goes well at Cheltenham, he has won twice from four runs there. His two losses were in two Gold Cups, when he burst blood vessels. Both times. So, every time he has run at Cheltenham and hasn’t broken a blood vessel, he has won.

He is risky, a history of broken blood vessels is not a good thing, and you have to factor that in. However, his odds are big enough to allow you do that. He is 10 years old now, he is not a young progressive chaser any more, but he is still lightly-raced for his age. This will just be his 14th race under all codes, and that is not a lot.

You can pick holes in the others. Midnight Chase would surely prefer better ground, Hunt Ball’s stamina is unproven, and he has reportedly been held up a little with the freeze, and Cape Tribulation is probably a better hurdler than he is a chaser. Imperial Commander is obviously very interesting, but the 2010 Gold Cup winner is 12 now, and he hasn’t raced in almost two years and he is only a 6/1 shot.

Tidal Bay has been ruled out of this afternoon’s race after failing to recover from the setback he suffered earlier this week.

The other horse of obvious interest is Grands Crus, and he is a player. However, he still just has to prove his stamina for three miles one and a half furlongs on testing ground at a stiff track off a fast pace. There will be no hiding place today, and, talented performer though he undoubtedly is, that just may not suit David Pipe’s horse.

I’m giving Weird Al another chance at the price. Last chance. Honest.

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