Ladbroke Hurdle Ascot 2012

[Guest]

BAR A brief interruption by trainers' title favourite Nicky Henderson, reigning champion Paul Nicholls has dominated the major Saturday contests this winter and, following his superb four-timer at Cheltenham, punters have latched on to his Ladbroke Hurdle contender Ranjaan.

Ranjaan, a good-looking Highclere-owned four-year-old who is on a hat-trick, is set to have his first run since January in Ascot's big handicap next weekend, for which he is on 10st 12lb in the long handicap.

The Nicholls-trained runner was available at 16-1 for the Ladbroke on Sunday morning but was widely cut into 10s, with 12-1 (Blue Square and Paddy Power) the biggest price available.
The sponsor's spokesman David Williams said: "Ranjaan is all the rage for our race on Saturday. He is the first major gamble to emerge in the big betting race of the weekend."

Nicholls, who enjoyed a great day at Cheltenham to end what had been a tumultuous week, with Kauto Star's departure from Ditcheat, said on Sunday: "Ranjaan had a little setback and because he's a big horse I've given him plenty of time. He hasn't had a run yet but ours have been running fairly well first time up."

Unless Petit Robin stays in, the weights will rise as Alan King confirmed Raya Star would not run. He will instead saddle Balder Succes, who with Cash And Go is the sponsor's 7-1 joint favourite.

King said: "We were lucky enough to win the Ladbroke last year with Raya Star, but he will wait for the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton this time around, so we will rely on Balder Succes at Ascot. He is in good form and will hopefully have a decent chance in what is always a very competitive handicap."

Balder Succes was mainly 8-1 on Sunday morning but a few firms trimmed him a point to join Ladbrokes at 7-1.

The ground at Ascot on Sunday was soft, with clerk of the course Chris Stickels warning that a wet front is forecast from Thursday.

[mayo]

HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 39-511 Petit Robin14 9 11-12 Nicky Henderson63 155 141 153
2 1FU-31 Balder Succes28 4 11-4 Alan King67 Robert Thornton 147 134 153
3 111U3- Cotton Mill253 5 11-2 John Ferguson50 Denis O'Regan 145 115 165
4 1115-2 Cash And Go34 5 11-2 Nicky Henderson63 145 147 156
5 2F50-1 Olofi34 6 11-1 Tom George40 144 147 155
6 27/243 Bothy21 6 10-13 Brian Ellison38 142 148 155
7 712613 Cause Of Causes34 4 10-13 Gordon Elliott57 142 147 155
8 201316 Rattan34 7 10-13 W P Mullins67 142 149 164
9 32F14 Double Ross28 6 10-13 Nigel Twiston-Davies46 142 154 160
10 1-1114 Discoteca10F 4 10-12 Gordon Elliott57 141 121 153
11 2F11- Ranjaan338 4 10-12 Paul Nicholls65 R Walsh 141 127 153
12 1218-2 Itīs A Gimme49 5 10-11 Jonjo OīNeill38 140 153 157
13 30-067 Starluck14 7 10-11 David Arbuthnot 140 140 161
14 151-62 Princeton Plains93 6 10-10 Edward P Harty 139 140 164
15 04-148 Urbain De Sivola41 4 10-9 Nick Williams75 138 116 146
16 2511-3 Claret Cloak49 5 10-7 Emma Lavelle100 136 153 157
17 1147-0 Kazlian34 4 10-6 David Pipe57 135 153 156
18 F12P72 Thomas Edison49 5 10-6 A J Martin25 135 124 156
19 03-P33 Dan Breen8 7 10-6 David Pipe57 135 142 161
20 1217-1 Lyvius23 4 10-6 Nicky Henderson63 135 121 159
21 133/11 King Of Queens21 7 10-4 Thomas Mullins40 133 142 159
22 68P-52 Rigidity43 5 10-4 Tim Vaughan38 133 118 157
23 638-25 Bar De Ligne28 6 10-4 Steve Gollings100 133 152 156
24 P-1902 First In The Queue29 5 10-3 Nicky Henderson63 132 128 158
25 216-3F First Avenue42 7 10-2 Laura Mongan 131 122 159
26 1146-2 Into Wain14 5 10-1 Steve Gollings100 130 137 154
27 509P54 Capellanus14 6 9-11 Brian Ellison38 126 120 161
28 310-73 Dontpaytheferryman14 7 9-10 Brian Ellison38 125 159 158
29 151-03 Top Wood16 5 9-9 David Pipe57 124 135 149
30 P710B/ Whitby Jack622 5 9-9 Gary Moore40 124 — —
31 23217 Katkeau28 5 9-9 David Pipe57 124 84 156
32 1111- Swing Bowler279 5 9-8 David Pipe57 123 109 141
33 141U-0 Waterunder36 5 9-8 David Pipe57 123 77 141
34 61132 Fleet Dawn14 6 9-8 Brian Ellison38 123 110 152
35 138-31 Cousin Khee20 5 9-7 Hughie Morrison 122 140 14

[Old Vic]

Henderson said: "We've left four in the race and the intention is for all of them to run. The plan will be to take seven off Petit Robin again, who has come out of Sandown really well."

Barry Gergahty was on board both Lyvius and Cash And Go for their most recent runs but he is undecided as to which he will ride. He said: "I haven't really discussed it with Nicky. I have an open mind on it. They are both prominent in the betting and both worked well at the weekend."

[Old Vic]

Clue here in Barrys Blog ...

CASH AND GO went nicely for me in a bit of work and he’s very much going the right way for the Ladbroke at Ascot on Saturday. His second to Olofi at Cheltenham last month still looks very reliable form.

[Statto]

Dunwoody Stats

Onto this week and the ultra-competitive Ladbroke Hurdle is the weekend's feature contest at Ascot. At this stage there are still too many runners entered to have a firm view, but it's a race that the Henderson and Pipe stables, with three wins each in the last 8 runnings, like to target so anything they send to post should be respected. While if you're looking for a profile of horse that the winner has fallen into for each of the last eight winners then you might want to focus on horses aged between 5-7 that have won between 1-3 times over hurdles before.

Have a good week!

Ladbroke Hurdle Trends

8/8 - Won over at least 2m (hurdles) previously

8/8 - Won by a horse aged between 5-7 years-old

8/8 - Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously

6/8 - Officially rated between 127 and 136

6/8 - Raced within the last 8 weeks

5/8 - Carried 10-11 or more in weight

5/8 - Returned 12/1 or bigger

5/8 - Won by a horse aged 5 years-old

5/8 - Favourites unplaced

4/8 - Won their last race

4/8 - Won by an Irish bred horse

3/8 - Trained by Nicky Henderson

3/8 - Trained by the Pipe stable

3/8 - Raced at Cheltenham last time out

[Statto]

Racecaller

Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 5 to 7
Finished in first 3 last time (ideally won)
Posted their highest RPR last time
Posted an RPR of 130+ in last 2 outings
Carrying 10-9+
Finished in first 3 in all starts this season
Second season hurdler
Run 4 to 10 times over hurdles (winning 1 to 3)
Run in 5 or less handicap hurdles (winning no more than 2)
Ran at the 2012 Cheltenham Festival
Finished in first 3 in CF Roberts Electrical Mechanical Services H’cap Hurdle
Trained by N Henderson, D Pipe, G Moore or P Nicholls

[Yeehaa]

Gary Nutting on ATR. Like his logic. I'd actually be more interested in First in the Queue if he gets in


BOTTOMLESS ground is very much on the cards at Ascot this weekend with up to 40mm of rain predicted between now and the start of racing on Saturday.

Historically, testing conditions have favoured low-weighted horses in The Ladbroke, with 2003 winner Thesis the only horse in the last decade to have successfully carried more than 11st on soft ground or worse.

The last time the race was run on heavy, the Nicky Henderson-trained Chauvinist romped home off 10st and I fancy the prize will go to Seven Barrows again (for the fourth time in nine renewals) courtesy of LYVIUS, whose current weight of 10st 6lb is set to be reduced by Jeremiah McGrath's 5lb claim.

Henderson intends to run all four of his entries (although First In The Queue needs three above him to drop out at the final declaration stage), headed by topweight Petit Robin.

Cash And Go, the probable mount of Barry Geraghty according to the trainer, is the obvious place to start based on projected jockey bookings, but I'm wondering whether 11st 2lb might just find him out in the ground.

Interestingly that was the weight Thesis carried but it wasn't the strongest of renewals when you compare his rating of 127 with the likes of more recent winners such as Sentry Duty (144), Acambo (136) and Raya Star (134) a year ago.

By contrast, this year's contest looks well up to standard with Petit Robin running off 155 and the top 26 entries rated 130-plus.

As a half-brother to Catch Me (rated 162 at his peak over hurdles), Cash And Go clearly has the potential to win this off 145 despite a 4lb rise for finishing second to Olofi in the big 2m handicap at Cheltenham's Paddy Power meeting last month.

But the extra weight will make life more difficult for him in the ground, whereas Lyvius will feel like he's been let loose with 10st 1lb on his back.

The four-year-old's victory in the 'Gerry Feilden' at Newbury last month - the race in which Raya Star finished third last season - was a marked improvement on his promising juvenile hurdling form, in keeping with Henderson's assertion that he had matured and strengthened a lot over the summer.

The subsequent 8lb rise is perfectly acceptable considering he beat a good, solid yardstick in Edgardo Sol, especially given that Barry Geraghty later reported in his ATR blog that he "travelled great, jumped brilliantly and was the winner everywhere - he's much more of a horse this season".

Proven in testing ground, like so many German-bred horses, and with scope for further improvement, Lyvius looks the pick of those in the lower half of the weights.

Ranjaan, It's A Gimme and Claret Cloak are other obvious contenders from below the 11st-mark but all three will have a ground question to answer if the weather forecasters have got their charts right.

[Hoof]

Falling only three days before Christmas this year, the Ladbroke Hurdle, a bookie-friendly, fiendishly-competitive handicap, probably isn't going to help everyone pay for the festive-season expenses; a cursory glance at the ante-post market demonstrates how open this year's renewal is, Balder Succes currently heading the field at 7.8. However, those of you wanting to stick the last tenner on a horse as opposed to begrudgingly buying the neighbours a cheap bottle of wine could do a lot worse than siding with the Emma Lavelle-trained Claret Cloak.

Having burst onto the scene with an impressive bumper victory at Wincanton, Claret Cloak has made an encouraging start to his hurdling career, winning a pair of novice hurdles last year before shaping extremely well on his seasonal reappearance over C&D last month, eventually finishing third having arguably been sent for home too soon. He was eventually overhauled by both Raya Star and It's A Gimme, both of whom had been held up, incidentally, but it was the way he travelled through his race, pinging numerous hurdles as he went, that suggested he could yet be a fair way ahead of his mark.

Significantly, Emma Lavelle has hit form again having gone through a relatively subdued period, landing a cross-the-card four-timer on Saturday, signalling her horses are back in rude health at a crucial part of the season. There are any number of dangers, but a horse with Claret Cloak's obvious potential and scope to improve beyond his handicap mark should not be trading at 20.0.

It is easy to see why Balder Succes has been supported in the run up to the contest. Alan King's four-year-old will appreciate any rain that falls at Ascot and was an authoritative winner last time, barely having to come off the bridle to beat a useful hurdler in Hollow Tree. Although that victory came in a fairly uncompetitive four-runner affair, the way in which Balder Succes travels would suggest that a strongly-run competitive handicap should play to his strengths, providing, of course, his jumping holds up.

Another of last season's juveniles that deserves a mention is the Paul Nicholls-trained Ranjaan. Highly touted from the start, Ranjaan let his supporters down twice, but he soon made amends, winning a juvenile event at Kempton before defying a BHA mark of 132 in a well-contested handicap at Taunton. A 9lb rise in the weights looks by no means prohibitive and it would be dangerous to rule out the progressive Ranjaan, for all that conditions are likely to be significantly more testing than what he has faced in Britain.

Saturday sees a host of improving youngsters, aiming to use the race as a stepping stone to graded company, clash with the veterans who regularly turn up in all the major, prestigious handicaps. Olofi may be a regular in these big events, but that doesn't necessarily mean he isn't still a progressive horse himself, having justified strong market support to win on his seasonal return at Cheltenham, posting a career-best performance in the process. This looks tougher, but his finishing effort was stronger than had often been the case and he isn't one to rule out.

Topping the weights is Nicky Henderson's Petit Robin, a one-time very smart chaser who has reinvented himself as a hurdler, winning on his latest two outings. He demonstrated an admirable attitude to prevail at Sandown most recently, but he may struggle to defy a BHA mark of 155. Prior to his Sandown win, Petit Robin had led home a Henderson one-two, beating the less-fancied First In The Queue. However, his stablemate, who had entered the race looking fairly exposed, shaped very nicely and if he can build on that effort could be an interesting alternative at a big price.

King of Queens, trained by Thomas Mullins in Ireland, would be an interesting contender if making the trip over. Off the track for over three years, King of Queens evidently retains plenty of ability, progressing nicely from a few spins on the Flat to prevail in two handicap hurdles, including a competitive race on soft ground at Fairyhouse last time. He still looks fairly well treated and is one of a number of horses that could be ahead of their mark.

In conclusion, Claret Cloak looks to be ahead of his handicap mark and a price of 20.0 looks extremely generous. However, Emma Lavelle's comment that Claret Cloak is a 'good-ground horse' would have to be a slight concern for ante-post players. The issue isn't that he won't prove effective on a testing surface, but simply that he may be withdrawn and saved for another day should Ascot receive plenty of rain. I believe the current price makes up for those concerns, but others may prefer to wait until the day, safe in the knowledge money will be returned should he fail to line up.

[Hoof]

Simon Holt ...


Balder Succes is one of two selections from Simon Holt
The horse who could have the required attributes - and at generous odds too - is Double Ross who showed himself to be a progressive hurdler (after a fall first time out this season over fences) when making all and bolting up over 2m5f in soft ground at Cheltenham's Open Meeting in November.

Again ridden positively at Haydock (2m4f soft) just six days later, Nigel Twiston-Davies's gelding was still in front 150 yards from the finish after a dashing display of pacemaking, eventually fading into fourth place behind Yesyoucan.

It's possible that the Haydock race might have come a bit too soon for Double Ross after his easy win at Cheltenham but, a month on, he should be more than refreshed and will have conditions very much to suit here. I can recall seeing him win at Folkestone last season when the ground was bottomless.

On quicker ground, the drop to two miles would be a concern but his fine third behind Red Merlin in the Swinton Hurdle over the trip at Haydock (soft) in May suggests that the trip on this deep surface and on this stiffer course will not be a problem.

At a best early price of around 20/1, I reckon Double Ross looks great value.

A week on from the four-year-old Unioniste's victory in the big chase at Cheltenham, there are various Ladbroke candidates in the same age group - notably Balder Succes, Ranjaan and Lyvius.

Balder Succes, already twice a course winner, could well be Champion Hurdle material and has run well on both starts this season, easily beating the tough Hollow Tree at Haydock after a reappearance third behind last week's Stan James International winner Zarkandar at Wincanton.

A strong traveller who acts well in soft ground, Alan King's charge seems bound to go close in a race his trainer won 12 months ago with Raya Star.

Both Ranjaan and Lyvius are open to improvement; the former is said to have grown a great deal since scoring twice last season while the latter settled better than in the past when winning at Newbury last month.

Given that these two horses are trained by Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson respectively - the two trainers who, between them, have cleaned up every big Saturday race so far this season - then they just have to be respected.

Henderson is also represented by the top-weighted Petit Robin (closely matched with Into Wain on recent Sandown form), Cash And Go (second to Olofi - with Cause Of Causes third, Bothy fourth, Rattan sixth and Kazlian unplaced - in the Greatwood at Cheltenham) and First In The Queue who is 10lb better off for a narrow beating by Petit Robin here last time.

All of the above are possible contenders along with Jonjo O'Neill's It's A Gimme, a good second behind Raya Star over the course and distance in early November and the mount of Tony McCoy, but, in a typically competitive renewal, there are many with chances.

However, for me, the potential star performer in the line-up is Balder Succes and the horse who could thrive under the conditions (and looks value) is Double Ross.

Earlier, in the absence of the sadly injured Big Buck's, the Long Walk Hurdle has drawn a somewhat uninspiring field.

On his best form, which includes a creditable third behind the champion staying hurdler in the World Hurdle at Cheltenham in March, Smad Place should be good enough to account for the progressive Haydock winner Trustan Times (who now steps up in class).

However, Alan King's grey was none too fluent on his reappearance at Wetherby before finishing a well-beaten third behind Tidal Bay and will need to sharpen up his act in that department. Perhaps a watching brief is the best advice.

1pt e.w. Double Ross
2pts win Balder Succes

[Hoof]

Balder Succes is 5/1 favourite for Alan King. The four year old comes here off the back of a win at Haydock on heavy ground and prior to that he finished 3rd in the Elite Hurdle at Wincanton behind Zarkandar. He is still unexposed with 5 wins from 8 starts (all over hurdles) and is a class act. He likes this track and has plenty in his favour, despite having 11 stone 4 to carry.

Cash and Go is next best at 7/1 for Nicky Henderson who has 4 runners including top weight Petit Robin (20/1), Lyvius (8/1) and First in the Queue (25s). Cash and Go is the pick of Barry Geraghty and Lyvius is interesting with a light weight. This is a race Henderson will be keen to win again with a valuable prize on offer as he is currently trailing Paul Nicholls in the trainers championship.

Olofi (12/1) beat Cash and Go in the Racing Post Hurdle (Greatwood) at Cheltenham last time out. The latter was having his first run for Nicky Henderson having formerly being trained by Edward O'Grady in Ireland and the Tom George trained Olofi was having his first run since being well beaten in the County Hurdle in March.

The latter has a tougher task off an 8lb higher mark as there were some decent efforts from some of the other horses in behind him that day. One of those was Cause of Causes (14/1) who is trained in Ireland by Gordon Elliott. He was staying on up the Cheltenham hill that day and finished third. The horse who finished 6th there, Rattan, is interesting too in Saturday's contest.

He is trained by Willie Mullins and relishes the testing conditions. He is more exposed than some of these, but is the sort of horse I'd be interested in each way.

Ranjaan is 8/1 for Paul Nicholls and Ruby Walsh. He has his first run since January here and has been well supported in the run up to this race, but I'm a bit concerned that he prefers better ground that he will encounter here.

So, to conclude, Cash and Go ran well last time out and although this is a tough race to call I'm going to give him a chance to go one better than last time out.



^alex hammond

[mayo]

The complex puzzle that is The Ladbroke might have been made a little easier by the persistent rain that has seen conditions turn heavy at Ascot this weekend.

I wouldn't want to be chancing anything that hasn't proved itself in really testing conditions before and that includes the likes of Balder Succes, Ranjaan and It's A Gimme.

One of them may well get away with it but I'd much rather have proven mudlarks on my side and with that in mind the 7/1 available about CASH AND GO looks worth taking.

Nicky Henderson has a fine record in the race and this fellow looks the pick of his four entries this year following his good effort in the Racing Post Hurdle at Cheltenham.

The first and third from that race, Olofi and Cause Of Causes, have both gone up 8lb on the back of their efforts in the contest but runner-up Cash And Go was raised only 4lb and he can take advantage in Berkshire.

He travelled into the race at Prestbury Park with real purpose before not quite getting to grips with the winner late on, but with the 4lb pull to aid him it's not hard to envisage him reversing that form on Saturday.

That race is also the only one he's ever lost in soft ground or worse. He revelled in such conditions when trained in Ireland by Edward O'Grady, winning three times on soft or heavy.

A Grade One winner as a novice, there's a real feeling he could go on to much better things and I'd be surprised if a handicap mark of 145 proved to be the ceiling of his ability.

Presuming he comes on for his run at Cheltenham he's the one to beat and I'll take him to add to Henderson's and Barry Geraghty's stunning strike-rate at Ascot.

With four places to play for it's also worth backing something each-way and I considered David Pipe's Kazlian at 20/1.

He was way behind Olofi and Cash And Go at Cheltenham, his chance going after making a mistake three from home but he was going well in a prominent position prior to that.

Pipe always targets his best-handicapped horses at this race but while he's worth considering I'd rather chance RIGIDITY each-way at 25/1.

Tim Vaughan's five-year-old has been running over fences but he loves nothing more than a strongly-run two-mile hurdle and heavy ground is the icing on the cake. He loves it.

The Indian Ridge gelding is back down to a mark just 1lb higher than when he was second to Raya Star in this very race last year and he'll be making his way through tired horses at the business end.

With plenty in his favour, it's worth a bet he makes it into the first four.

2pts win Cash And Go
1pt e.w. Rigidity

[Old Vic]

Sir Nicky sounds positive about Cash & Go.

[Hoof]

Winner romped that ....good call from Jim McGrath. Fine ride from Davy Condon.