Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup

[Rhinestone Cowboy]

Unioniste gets in

NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 F25-21 Wishfull Thinking27 t 9 11-12 Philip Hobbs40 Richard Johnson 162 131 167
2 11P2-1 Cristal Bonus42 6 11-7 Paul Nicholls64 R Walsh 157 138 164
3 2175-P Quantitativeeasing28 7 11-3 Nicky Henderson74 Barry Geraghty 153 143 157
4 345P-2 Walkon28 7 10-12 Alan King65 Robert Thornton 148 143 170
5 715U- Tatenen245 8 10-11 Richard Rowe Andrew Thornton 147 129 167
6 6050-6 Tartak56 t 9 10-9 Tim Vaughan30 Noel Fehily 145 161 171
7 17-13 Nadiya De La Vega28 6 10-9 Nicky Henderson74 A P McCoy 145 163 169
8 1721-4 Astracad29 6 10-8 Nigel Twiston-Davies65 Sam Twiston-Davies 144 166 170
9 1323F- Notus De La Tour275 6 10-8 David Pipe55 Tom Scudamore 144 153 166
10 24-5P6 Micheal Flips14 8 10-6 Andy Turnell50 James Banks7 142 160 173
11 PP-343 Renard14 7 10-4 Venetia Williams59 Aidan Coleman 140 163 171
12 13-51P Golden Chieftain35 tp 7 10-2 Colin Tizzard60 Dave Crosse 138 105 172
13 U047-0 Divers56 8 10-2 Ferdy Murphy28 138 161 171
14 3602-3 De Boitron35 8 10-1 Ferdy Murphy28 Lucy Alexander3 137 138 169
15 211FP Kingsmere28 7 10-1 Henry Daly71 Hadden Frost 137 116 170
16 09P0-2 Hell´s Bay40 10 10-0 Keiran Burke Gavin Sheehan5 135 125 150
17 12432/ Have You Seen Me611 9 10-0 Nigel Twiston-Davies65 Adam Wedge3 131 — —
18 65-113 Unioniste29 4 10-0 Paul Nicholls64 Harry Derham5 137 146 170

[Old Vic]

Fat Jockey Stats

http://www.fatjockey.com/festivals/racing_festivals.php?December-Gold-Cup-Cheltenham-old-Massey-Ferguson-Winners-134

[Old Vic]

Dunwoody stats etc


The December Gold Cup, or to give the race it’s full name - the Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup, is once again an ultra-competitive heat with the Paddy Power Gold Cup runner-up, Walkon, heading the market.

However, if you like your trends then you might be interested to know that this has been a bit of a graveyard for favourites in recent times, with just Poquelin (2009) going in as market leader since 1996.

Last year’s winner from the Henderson yard was Quantitativeeeasing, who we last saw being pulled up in the Paddy Power, will be hoping to become only the second horse to land back-to-back wins in the race since the contest was first run back in 1963.

The Henderson team also have Nadiya De La Vega entered for the race, and racing off the same mark as when last seen running third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup then this lightly-raced mare has been given every chance of at least hitting the frame again, while 4 of the last 10 winners had raced in the PP Gold Cup last time out.

Paul Nicholls will be hoping to land the race for a third time, and will more than likely be pinning his hopes on Unioniste, who at just 4 years-old will be looking to become the youngest ever winner of the race, while he also has Ghizao, who would be an appropriate winner being that he’s part-owned by the sponsors, and Cristal Bonus engaged at the time of writing.

Other key trends to note are that all 10 recent winners have been aged 8 or younger, with in fact 80% of the last 10 being 6 or 7 year-olds. I’ve already talked about the bad record of the favourite, but 8 of the last 10 jollies have also been unplaced.

Henderson (3) and Nicholls (2) have won the race 5 times between then in the last 10 runnings, while if you like following the breeding stats then you’ll know that 7 of the last 10 winners of this race were French bred.

Having a fit horse helps too, with 8 of the last 10 winners having had a run within the last month, but if there is a word of caution then you might want to steer clear of the winner should he/she run later in the season at the Festival – 8 of the last 10 tried to follow-up in a festival race and all failed.

Have a good week.....

December Gold Cup Trends
10/10 – Won 2-4 times over fences previously
10/10 – Won by a horse aged 8 or younger
8/10 - Favourites unplaced
8/10 – Raced within the last month
8/10 – Won by a horse aged 6 or 7 years-old
8/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/10 – Ran at the Cheltenham Festival later that season (no winners)
8/10 – Raced at Cheltenham (fences) previously (4 won)
7/10 – Won by a French bred horse
7/10 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
7/10 – Officially rated 142 or higher
7/10 – Won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously
6/10 – Carried 10-13 or more in weight
4/10 – Placed in the top 5 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup that season
4/10 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/10 – Ran in the Paddy Power Gold Cup last time out (1 won)
3/10 – Won their last race
3/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/10 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
1/10 – Favourites (last winning fav 1996)
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 9.5/1

[johnno]

Andy Gibson

CONCLUSIONS
The ground on Saturday is very likely going to be soft and given that scenario there are plenty of horses that will be inconvenienced by such conditions; namely, Hunt Ball, Astracad, Wishful Thinking, Menorah, Divers and Micheal Flips. In the highly unlikely event of the ground riding good on Saturday I will mark up the chances of Hunt Ball and Nadiya De La Vega.

The Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup is a race with few names on the shortlist providing the early going and weather predictions are accurate. Horses like Tartak and Hell’s Bay could run well for a long way at big prices, whilst Nadiya De la Vega has good place prospects once again. Unioniste could be interesting but is not certain to line up and is also entered in a novice event on Friday.

However, the two obvious contenders for the shortlist are Walkon and Notus De la Tour. I will be backing Walkon to win at a generally available 5/1 and will support the bet by playing Notus De La Tour each-way at 10/1 with Boylesports and Sportingbet.

[Statto]

More stats


STATS THE WAY TO DO IT
Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup (Cheltenham Saturday, 15 December)

Favourites have a modest recent record in the Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup, a two-mile-five-furlong handicap chase due to be run at Cheltenham this Saturday, 15 December.

Only one market-leader - Poquelin, at 7-2 in 2009 - has taken this £100,000 event the past decade.

No second-favourite has collected within that timeframe, during which there have been just nine renewals due to an abandonment in 2008, but three horses who started third-best in the betting - Fondmort (5-1 in 2002), Iris Royal (7-1 in 2003) and Monkerhostin (4-1 in 2004) - have scored.

Successful long-shots have been less common than might be imagined, however, with a mere three winners - Sir Oj (16-1 in 2005), Tamarinbleu (22-1 in 2007) and Poquelin (16-1 when registering his second victory in 2010) - starting at double-figure odds.

Eight of the nine winners from 2002 onwards have been aged either six or seven, with those two age groups each notching four successes.

The victorious six-year-olds were Fondmort, Exotic Dancer (2006), Poquelin (2009) and Quantitativeeasing (2011), while the seven-year-olds to put their names on the roll of honour were Iris Royal, Monkerhostin, Tamarinbleu and Poquelin (2010).

The only other winner in the past decade - Sir Oj - was an eight-year-old.

Just three of the successful candidates during that time - Iris Royal, Exotic Dancer and Tamarinbleu - had collected on their last outing before lining up at Cheltenham.

Three others - Monkerhostin, Poquelin (2009) and Quantitativeeasing - had finished runner-up on their most recent start, while Fondmort has finished third immediately prior to this event.

Sir Oj and Poquelin (2010) managed no better than fifth on their latest run.

Previous successes at the big-race distance are, seemingly, an important pointer, though, since six winners of this prize in the past decade - Iris Royal, Monkerhostin, Exotic Dancer, Tamarinbleu, Poquelin (2010) and Quantitativeeasing - had already scored over two and a half miles or more.

Two of those - Monkerhostin and Exotic Dancer - plus Poquelin (on both occasions) had already registered a victory at Cheltenham before going to post for the December Gold Cup.

Perhaps not surprisingly, given the race's position in the calendar, no winner in the past decade was making his seasonal reappearance.

Rather more interestingly, only one scorer in that time - Monkerhostin - had raced more than twice previously during the relevant campaign.

Winners have come from virtually right across the weight range and four of the last five successful candidates - Exotic Dancer (11st 4lb), Tamarinbleu (11st 8lb), Poquelin (11st 8lb in 2009 and 11st 7lb in 2010) - have figured towards the top of the handicap.

Only one winner in the past decade - Sir Oj (who carried 10st) - has raced from out of the official weights, by 2lb.

Fascinatingly, however, Poquelin (successful from a BHA mark of 163 in 2010) is the sole scorer in that period to have been awarded an official race-rating higher than 151.

Six winners from 2002 onwards - Fondmort (143), Iris Royal (142), Exotic Dancer (149), Tamarinbleu (150), Poquelin (151 in 2009) and Quantitativeeasing (145) - had an official mark within a remarkably narrow 8lb range.

Big stables have dominated in the period under scrutiny, with Nicky Henderson (Fondmort, Iris Royal and Quantitativeasing) leading the trainers' statistics.

Paul Nicholls has lifted the trophy twice, meanwhile, thanks to Poquelin's back-to-back victories, while the other successes in the last ten years have been notched by Philip Hobbs (Monkerhostin), Noel Meade (Sir Oj), Jonjo O'Neill (Exotic Dancer) and David Pipe (Tamarinbleu).

[Hoof]

Unioniste gets in

NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
1 F25-21 Wishfull Thinking27 t 9 11-12 Philip Hobbs40 Richard Johnson 162 131 167
2 11P2-1 Cristal Bonus42 6 11-7 Paul Nicholls64 R Walsh 157 138 164
3 2175-P Quantitativeeasing28 7 11-3 Nicky Henderson74 Barry Geraghty 153 143 157
4 345P-2 Walkon28 7 10-12 Alan King65 Robert Thornton 148 143 170
5 715U- Tatenen245 8 10-11 Richard Rowe Andrew Thornton 147 129 167
6 6050-6 Tartak56 t 9 10-9 Tim Vaughan30 Noel Fehily 145 161 171
7 17-13 Nadiya De La Vega28 6 10-9 Nicky Henderson74 A P McCoy 145 163 169
8 1721-4 Astracad29 6 10-8 Nigel Twiston-Davies65 Sam Twiston-Davies 144 166 170
9 1323F- Notus De La Tour275 6 10-8 David Pipe55 Tom Scudamore 144 153 166
10 24-5P6 Micheal Flips14 8 10-6 Andy Turnell50 James Banks7 142 160 173
11 PP-343 Renard14 7 10-4 Venetia Williams59 Aidan Coleman 140 163 171
12 13-51P Golden Chieftain35 tp 7 10-2 Colin Tizzard60 Dave Crosse 138 105 172
13 U047-0 Divers56 8 10-2 Ferdy Murphy28 138 161 171
14 3602-3 De Boitron35 8 10-1 Ferdy Murphy28 Lucy Alexander3 137 138 169
15 211FP Kingsmere28 7 10-1 Henry Daly71 Hadden Frost 137 116 170
16 09P0-2 Hell´s Bay40 10 10-0 Keiran Burke Gavin Sheehan5 135 125 150
17 12432/ Have You Seen Me611 9 10-0 Nigel Twiston-Davies65 Adam Wedge3 131 — —
18 65-113 Unioniste29 4 10-0 Paul Nicholls64 Harry Derham5 137 146 170

Unioniste is First Reserve actually

[Old Vic]

Unioniste faces Gold wait

Leading contender Unioniste is first reserve for the Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup at Cheltenham on Saturday.

The Paul Nicholls-trained four-year-old has been disputing favouritism with some bookmakers for the prestigious handicap having run so well in novice company when third behind Dynaste at Prestbury Park a month ago.

Connections now face an anxious wait to find out whether he will get a run and that could hinge on whether Doncaster's meeting on Saturday gets the go-ahead.

The Ferdy Murphy-trained duo of Divers and De Boitron have both been declared with the race as their second preference.

Murphy said: "The plan is for both of ours to go to Doncaster if the meeting goes ahead. Divers is going to run in the two-mile-three-furlong race there and De Boitron goes for the three miler.

"But it was no more money for us to declare for Cheltenham as a second preference so with the way the weather is, it was a no-brainer."

The course at Doncaster is currently frozen, but temperatures are due to rise from Friday morning.

However at least one of the Murphy-trained pair would need to be formally withdrawn by 9am on Friday for Unioniste to be allowed to take their place in the final line-up.

Harry Derham will take the ride on Unioniste if he does line up, with his 5lb claim a big help considering he runs from 6lb out of the handicap.

"He's got his weight because he's got a rating of 137, but he gets a 7lb allowance as a four-year-old," said Nicholls.

"Hopefully he will get in because with Harry taking off 5lb he's got a nice-looking racing weight of 9-9."

Ruby Walsh partners stablemate Cristal Bonus, a hugely-impressive winner on his seasonal reappearance at Down Royal.

"Every bit of rain that arrives on Friday will help his chances, because he loves soft ground," added Nicholls.

A total of 18 horses including Unioniste were declared, but Hunt Ball was a notable absentee.

The seven-year-old was one of the major success stories of last season after seven wins catapulted him and his owner Anthony Knott to stardom.

However, he was pulled up on his return in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, with connections blaming the testing ground, and trainer Kieran Burke said that he felt conditions would again be unsuitable this weekend.

Burke said: "We've decided not to run him. It's purely because of the ground and I think they're forecast more rain yet.

"There's no point running him on soft ground as he showed in the Paddy Power he just doesn't handle it at all.

"He's in very good order and the plan is to go straight to Kempton now for the King George on Boxing Day."

Alan King's Walkon is clear market leader with most bookmakers following his excellent second in the Paddy Power.

Philip Hobbs had Menorah and Wishfull Thinking engaged at the confirmation stage, but only the latter has been declared.

He snapped a long losing run at the track last month and carries top-weight of 11st 12lb on Saturday.

Nicky Henderson saddles both Quantitativeeasing and Nadiya De La Vega, ridden by Barry Geraghty and Tony McCoy respectively.

Other leading contenders include David Pipe's Notus De La Tour and Astracad from the local stable of Nigel Twiston-Davies.

The Naunton handler could also be represented by Have You Seen Me who has been off the track since finishing second over the course and distance in a novices' handicap chase at Cheltenham in April, 2011.

He will be ridden by Adam Wedge and Twiston-Davies said: "Have You Seen Me is down there at the bottom of the weights and he is also in good form. It is his first run for a while but hopefully I have him fit enough and he should run a good race."

However, it is Astracad, who won the Jenny Mould Memorial Handicap Chase at The International last year, that leads the stable's attack.

The six-year-old continued his good record around Cheltenham when finishing fourth in the paddypower.com Handicap Chase over two miles at The Open on his seasonal debut in November.

Twiston-Davies said: "Astracad has been in brilliant form since his run at The Open and I think he has come on a bit for that run.

"The extra half mile in the Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup will definitely help him and I don't think soft ground will be a problem either."

[Old Vic]

attheraces.com/barry

Time flies in this game because it doesn’t seem a year ago that I won the Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup on QUANTITATIVEEASING (2.30) and we’re re-united for the first time since on Saturday.

But there’s a different set of circumstances this time because a year ago he was going into the race on the back of good second in the Paddy Power Gold Cup but he pulled up in this season’s renewal last time out and I’m just hoping that he can show a bit of spark.

A year ago AP opted for Sunnyhillboy who started favourite but pulled up though I doubt he’s made the same mistake this time going for Nadiya De La Vega who was third in the Paddy Power. She’s got 12 lengths to find on the second, Walkon, but it’s a bit of a concern that the first run is often the best one for Walkon.

In truth, this year’s running might lack the depth of previous seasons and for that reason I can see Astracad improving for the move up to two and half miles and I’d have respect for both Paul Nicholls’ runners, Cristal Bonus and Unioniste, who is only 1lb out of the handicap after deducting Harry Derham’s claim.

[johnno]

Rowe-trained Tatenen Saturday's Paul Stewart IronSpine Charity Challenge Gold Cup at Cheltenham after the Paul Nicholls-trained Ghizao was scratched at the final declaration stage.

Stewart explained this race is a stepping stone to his main objective, the BetVictor.com Handicap Chase at Ascot next month which he has won for the last two years.

"Tatenen is absolutely fine and his main aim will be trying to win the Victor Chandler handicap at Ascot in January for the third year in a row," said Stewart.

"We did have him in the Hennessy Gold Cup but when it came up bottomless, we thought we could come for my race at Cheltenham.

"Andrew Thornton will ride and I think Richard is quite optimistic. As long as the ground isn't bottomless, it will be fine for him."

Nicholls will still be doubly represented and believes Unioniste is potentially well-treated despite being 6lb out of the handicap.

Conditional Harry Derham takes the ride and can claim 5lb leaving Unioniste to shoulder just 9st 9lb.

"Harry's (Derham) taking 5lb off so he's going to carry 9st 9lb, so it's 1lb away from his mark," the Ditcheat trainer told at The Races.

"He's low down because he got a mark of 137 and a 7lb four-year-old allowance. In effect he's quite nicely in.

"Obviously with the weight he had it was ideal Harry take 5lb off, so 9st 9lb is an attractive weight."

Nicholls also runs Cristal Bonus, who made a successful reappearance in the Grade Two Ladbrokes Chase at Down Royal six weeks ago.

"He won well last time and the more it rains tomorrow, the softer the ground and the more chance he's got," he said.

"He loves really soft ground and we're hopeful of a good run from him."

Alan King has high hopes for Walkon, who was runner-up to Al Ferof in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at Cheltenham four weeks ago.

"I have heard the theory that Walkon might be best fresh, but when he first came to us he ran four times in two months and won three of them," the Barbury Castle trainer told www.alankingracing.co.uk.

"He then finished second in the Triumph and promptly went one better in the Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree three weeks later, so I am not sure how much credence there is that line of reasoning.

"We have never really had a clear run with Walkon since his juvenile season, so for me if the horse is sound, it doesn't much matter whether there is two weeks or six months between his races.

"He did not lose much weight for his Paddy Power run, and there was 12 lengths back to the third, so I have no complaints about going up 5lb, and if he is in the same sort of form, he is the one they all have to beat.

"He did a nice sharp bit of work on Tuesday morning and goes there in top condition - his preparation has gone great and the ground won't be a problem, so now we just need luck in running."

Nigel Twiston-Davies feels the extra distance will play to Astracad's strengths.

The Naunton trainer reports the six-year-old to have thrived since his first run of the campaign over two miles here last month.

"Astracad has been in brilliant form since his run at The Open and I think he has come on a bit for that run," he said.

"The extra half-mile will definitely help him and I don't think soft ground will be a problem either."

Twiston-Davies also runs Have You Seen Me, who is on the comeback trail after being off the track for 611 days.

"Have You Seen Me is down there at the bottom of the weights and he is also in good form," he said.

"It is his first run for a while but hopefully I have him fit enough and he should run a good race."

Nicky Henderson is double-handed with last year's winner Quantitativeeasing and Nadiya De La Vega, who was third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

"They are both in good form. Nadiya De La Vega has been running well all season," said the Seven Barrows trainer.

"Quantitativeeasing won it last year, but he's 8lb higher this time. It's a very difficult mark for him to win off."

Andy Turnell is concerned conditions might be unsuitable for Micheal Flips who could not handle the ground in the Paddy Power Gold Cup and was pulled up.

"He's fine but I'm a bit apprehensive about the weather. I was hoping the forecast might be wrong and the rain might miss Cheltenham," said the Wiltshire handler.

"He patently didn't handle the ground last time, but it might be better being wet.

"I've got James (Banks) taking 7lb off as Nick (Scholfield) wasn't available and nor was Brian (Hughes) who rides a bit for the owner, so I thought we'd take some weight off his back.

"If he does his stuff all well and good, but I'm not particularly optimistic going into the race.

"He has run all right in the wet before, but he does prefer better ground. We'll see, but I think there's a good race in him."

[mayo]

The Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup looks a very competitive heat and antepost supporters of Unioniste were able to breath a sigh of relief when he just scraped into the Grade 3 Handicap Chase as first reserve.

He races from out of the handicap, but when you take into account Harry Derham's 5lb claim he is only 1lb 'wrong'. The 4 year-old is having just his fourth start over fences and this is his handicap debut for the Nicholls team.

He looks well treated on the face of it having finished third to Dynaste and Fingal Bay at Cheltenham last time out and he runs here off a mark of just 137. This is just his third start in the UK as he began his career in France.

He is only 4 though and doesn't have a great deal of experience, so it will be impressive if he were to win this. He is 9/2 joint favourite along with Paddy Power Gold Cup runner up Walkon.

The rain has come in time for him as the softer the better for the Alan King trained runner so he should relish this ground. Cristal Bonus is a 6/1 shot also for Paul Nicholls, Ruby Walsh rides this one and is another unexposed horse.

The rain and softer ground is really up his street and I think he can run a huge race. Notus de la Tour (8/1) also looks unexposed for David Pipe and Tom Scudamore.

This is his first run since falling in the Byrne Group Plate at the festival back in March and this could be season he excels over fences.

Nadiya de la Vega is another 8/1 shot and represents Nicky Henderson and AP McCoy. She has been running well with a win on her first run back at this track and a decent third in the Paddy Power last time out.

Astracad is also 8s for Nigel Twiston-Davies who has his team in good form (he won the Becher Chase last weekend). He needs to jump a bit better than he did last time out though. Quantitiveeasing is 14/1 to repeat his win in this race last year. He has a bit to prove off an 8lb higher mark.

So, in conclusion, this testing ground is sure to make this a real test and a lot of it hinges on whether Unioniste is as well handicapped as he appears. I think it can go to one of the other Nicholls runners though as the ground has come right for Cristal Bonus.

[mayo]

Timeform

Timeform examine each runner in Saturday's Paul Stewart Ironspine Charity Challenge Gold Cup at Cheltenham ...

Wishfull Thinking's overall record is patchy, though fair record at Cheltenham, winning again in 2m conditions event here last month. Trip fine, but plenty on his plate now off top weight.

Cristal Bonus is a promising second-season chaser who made fine return when winning 2½m Grade 2 at Down Royal. Never been a factor in 3 previous runs (2 over hurdles) at Cheltenham but remains unexposed.

Quantitativeeasing kept mistakes to a minimum to land this off 8 lb lower 12 months ago but has struggled since, admittedly possibly needing last month's return in the Paddy Power. Questions to answer.

Walkon produced a fine effort on return to chase home Al Ferof in the Paddy Power here and just 5 lb higher. Didn't go on from promising reappearances previous 2 seasons which tempers enthusiasm a bit.

Tatenen won valuable 21f handicap for second successive year at Ascot in January. Has gone well fresh before, and would be most popular winner here, but looks a shade too high in the weights at present.

Tartak has twice finished fourth in the Melling Chase and respectable return behind Nadiya de La Vega here, jumping soundly. No banker to build on that, though 4 lb lower than last winning mark over C&D.

Nadiya de La Vega continued her good record fresh in landing hotly-contested 2½m handicap here in October and another good run under McCoy when third in the Paddy Power. Unexposed at this sort of trip

Astracad is better over fences than hurdles, and won a competitive 17f handicap at this meeting last year. Let down by jumping on return but could have come on for that and not dismissed

Notus de La Tour is a useful hurdler who hacked up in a couple of 2½m novice chases early last season. Early faller at the Festival when last seen on just first go in a handicap over fences. Still unexposed.

Micheal Flips is better over fences than hurdles and has had excuses for this seasons defeats in good handicaps, inadequate test (17f) latest. Needs to cut out the mistakes.

Renard won 4 handicap chases at up to 2¼m last term but stays this far. Looked beaten on merit at Newbury last time, though, and questionable whether he can defy current mark in race this competitive.

Golden Chieftain was an impressive winner of 2½m Worcester handicap chase in October and shaped well before stamina gave way over 25f at Wincanton. 4 lb drop and fitting of tongue tie makes him of interest.

Divers - NON-RUNNER.

De Boitron is a hold-up performer who hasn't won since landing 2m conditionals handicap chase here in April 2010. Merely plodded on in third on last month's return and opposed over this sort of trip.

Kingsmere won over fences at Cartmel and Stratford in summer and has shaped very well twice here subsequently, racing up with pace in testing conditions for long way in Paddy Power. Interesting.

Hell's Bay is a useful hurdler/chaser who has been unable to rediscover form since returning from injury, remote second of 2 finishers at Kempton on return for new trainer last month. Difficult to assess.

Have You Seen Me is an exuberant jumper who was a good second over C&D when last seen in April 2011. Bit to find from out of the handicap on return but yard in good form and he's won fresh.

Unioniste is an ex-French performer who has made highly promising start for new yard with victory at Aintree and an eye-catching third behind Dynaste last time. Of major interest in handicap now.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Unioniste
2. Notus de La Tour
3. Nadiya de La Vega

Timeform View: It's rare to see a horse as young as Unioniste land a competitive race like this but he looks a smart prospect and his stay in handicap chases could be a short one. Following an eye-catching effort here behind Dynaste last month he gets the vote over Notus de La Tour who remains one to keep on side. Nadiya de La Vega is 113 under McCoy and posted another good effort here last month

[mayo]

Alternative Stats

Winners have been aged six (4), seven (4) and eight.
Winners have carried between 10-00 and 11-8 with four of the last five carrying 11-4+.
Winners have been rated between 132 and 163 with six between 142 and 151.
Winners were priced between 7-2 and 22-1 with one favourite successful (one further favourite was placed).
Three winners were successful on their previous start and all finished in the first five.
Six winners had run in a renewal of the Paddy Power Gold Cup with five contesting the race in the same season.
The last nine winners had had between six and 12 starts over fences.
The last nine winners had run between one and three times during the current season.
Only one of the last nine winners hadn't previously won or been placed at Cheltenham.
All winners had either won or been placed in a class one chase.

Summary

Applying the statistics relating to age and form (recent, class and course) produces a short-list of Walkon, Nadiya De La Vega and Astracad.

The strong recent record of runners to have contested the Paddy Power Gold Cup at the course in November is in favour of the first two named but both have to prove that they can back up a run having shown their best form when fresh.

With that in mind, it may be worth chancing Nigel Twiston-Davies' runner who looked ready for a step back up in trip when fourth at The Open over two miles on his seasonal reappearance.

[mayo]

What do you do when you think that the ground might have turned against you?

When I backed Astracad for today’s December Gold Cup at Cheltenham, the ground was good to soft, they were talking about some rain but not too much and, actually, they were more worried about frost than they were about rain.

Fast forward to Friday: rain, plenty of it, soft ground. They called it heavy at the start of racing Friday, and the times didn’t disagree, getting progressively slower as the day went on: 1.93secs/furlong slower than standard in the opener, slowing to 2.22secs/furlong slower than standard in the concluding novices’ hurdle, with only the 16-length winner Dark Lover breaking the 1.7secs/furlong barrier. Oh it’s heavy all right.

It isn’t that Astracad doesn’t handle soft ground – he won a novices’ chase at Perth last April on soft ground – it’s just that most of his form is on good or good to soft ground, and, crucially, you know that several of his big opponents are at their best on soft.

Okay, so he wasn’t that impressive in winning that novices’ chase at Perth, but that had more to do with the way the race was run than it had to do with ground conditions. Over two miles, a trip that is probably on the sharp side for him now, Sam Twiston-Davies was correct to ride him aggressively, snap at leader Oscar Hill’s heels and keep him honest, ensure a fast pace and consequently a stamina test at the trip.

However, Oscar Hill unseated his rider at the first fence down the back straight, and that wasn’t part of the plan at all. The exit of Gordon Elliott’s horse from the competition meant that Astracad was left on his own in a clear lead, and he didn’t really like that. In an instant, he went from this fluid athlete who was travelling kindly in the soft ground and jumping fluently, to a staccato animal who was pricking his ears, looking around him and jumping to his left.

It looked ominous when Kai Broon joined him at the last fence but, once Nigel Twiston-Davies’s horse had company, he concentrated again and pulled right away on the run-in to win by eight lengths. It wasn’t his ability that was ever in question.

He should get plenty of cover today behind a fast pace that suits him well. He is progressive, he loves Cheltenham, he won over two miles at this meeting last year, and he proved on debut this term that he is in fine form. That was in a good two-mile chase at Cheltenham’s November meeting, when he came under pressure and just got out-paced on the run down the hill, but he kept on really well on the run back up it to hold onto fourth place.

That was a good two-mile handicap chase. None of the first five home have run again since, but all of the other four horses who, along with Astracad, filled the first five places – Shooters Wood, Wetak, Silver Roque and Kid Cassidy – shape like high-class handicap chasers at worst.

That run by Astracad was just another piece of the pie that says that he really does need two and a half miles to be seen to best effect. He won two handicap hurdles over that trip, he won a two-and-a-half-mile novices’ chase at Perth in September 2011, and he seems to always stay on well when he races over two miles, whether he wins or loses.

The handicapper has dropped him 1lb for his run last month, which is a nice if unexpected bonus. It brings him back down to a mark of 144, which may under-rate his ability over two and a half miles by a fair way. He has only run twice over two and a half miles over fences, and his last run over the trip was 13 months and seven runs ago. Enthusiasm is dampened a little by the rain, but there is every chance that he will handle the ground okay and, as long as he does, there could be significant improvement in him at today’s trip. Odds of around 13.0 about him are more than fair.

So, back to the question: you probably back another horse in the race. My shortlist for a second bet in the race (it’s a good each-way race as long as all 16 remaining runners take their chance) on the ground is comprised of (in racecard order) Cristal Bonus, Walkon, Notus De La Tour, Golden Chieftain and Unioniste. Admittedly, it’s not a very original list, with four of the five on it occupying the top four places in the market, but that’s the way the race has shaken down now.

It is a big ask for Unioniste, a four-year-old racing from 6lb out of the handicap (the fact that Harry Derham takes of 5lb is neither here nor there) and having just his fourth run over fences. I think that the soft ground will help him a lot, it will mean that the pace will not be as frenetic as it would be on good ground and that he may get away with his lack of experience, and he is a really exciting prospect, but he is short enough at around 6.0 for all of that.

His stable companion Cristal Bonus also has an obvious chance, he looked good at Down Royal on his seasonal debut, he will love the ground, he hails from the all-conquering Paul Nicholls yard and he will be ridden by the invaluable Ruby Walsh. However, his record at Cheltenham is a bit of a worry. There have been excuses (he was out-classed over hurdles twice and he came home injured once) but the fact remains that his Cheltenham record reads 57P, while his record at all other tracks in Ireland and Britain reads 1121. For that reason, I am happy to let him run at around 7.0.

That leaves Walkon, Notus De La Tour and Golden Chieftain, all of whom are moderately attractive at respective prices. A 5lb hike for Walkon for his excellent run in the Paddy Power Gold Cup (he was the only one to give the high-class Al Ferof a race, and he finished 12 lengths clear of the third horse) is not harsh, he handles soft ground well and he goes well at the track. There is a suggestion that he is at his best on his seasonal debut, but I wouldn’t worry too much about that, he improved all the way through the season as a juvenile hurdler.

Notus De La Tour is 12lb better off with Walkon for an eight-length beating at Exeter around this time last year. Since then, he has run a couple of excellent races in defeat in Ireland, behind Blackstairmountain and Flemenstar, and he has fallen early on in the Byrne Group Plate at the Cheltenham Festival. He looks at least fairly handicapped on a mark of 144, he is only six, he has raced just six times over fences, he will love the ground, this is probably his optimum trip, and he goes well when he is fresh.

Golden Chieftain has to step up a fair bit in class, but he looked very good in winning at Worcester in October in first-time cheekpieces. He ran well for a long way in the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton on his only subsequent run, when the three-and-a-quarter-mile trip probably stretched his stamina beyond its limit, and Joe Tizzard wisely pulled him up before the third last, in a race in which just five of the 12 runners finished. The handicapper has dropped him back a handy 4lb, and he will be much happier back at two and a half miles today.

He did have a wind operation during the summer, so it is a little bit of a worry that Colin Tizzard reaches for a tongue-tie, especially on very soft ground, and he has run poorly twice in two visits to Cheltenham. That said, he was impressive in winning a novices’ hurdle at Exeter in February 2011 in heavy ground, and he is one of the more interesting outsiders in the race.

[mayo]

Heavy going at Cheltenham is likely to make today's feature handicap chase even more of a test than the equivalent race last month, when only six of the 18 starters completed the course behind Al Ferof. Notus De La Tour (2.30) appeals as a nicely handicapped horse, well equipped to cope with conditions and may provide another major handicap success for his trainer, David Pipe.

Still only six, Notus De La Tour may be remembered as a runner-up over hurdles at the Cheltenham Festival two years ago, when he had the misfortune to run into an absurdly well-treated Sanctuaire. He continued to perform creditably in that sphere, finishing a close third in Newbury's Betfair Hurdle last year, from a mark just 3lb lower than the one from which he runs here.

He fared respectably in his first season over fences, barring an early fall at the Festival, his efforts generally suggesting that he needed this sort of trip. He showed in France last summer and on other occasions that deep going is not a problem and he goes well fresh.

The same can be said of Walkon, who is unlikely to improve on his effort when second here last month and is now 5lb higher and a shorter price. Nadiya De La Vega, third that day, probably does not want an even more testing surface.

Unioniste is promising and no doubt well in but lacks experience. Astracad looks a more reliable place prospect, while Hell's Bay is an interesting outsider.