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Lexus Chase 2012

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  • #16
    Timeform view

    imeform look back on an eventful Leopardstown Christmas Festival, kicking off with a thrilling renewal of the Lexus Chase...

    The Lexus Chase was arguably as anticipated a Christmas clash as the King George, featuring as it did the two most exciting chasers in Ireland, namely Flemenstar and Sir des Champs, plus an interesting raider from Britain in the shape of Tidal Bay, and it provided one of the most thrilling finishes through the whole of 2012.

    Flemenstar and Sir des Champs, who had finished first and second in the John Durkan earlier in the month, started at odds of 5/4 and 9/4 respectively, but it was the third in the betting, the Paul Nicholls-trained Tidal Bay, who upstaged the pair with a remarkable performance, in the process giving his handler his third win in the race in the last six years.

    Success for Tidal Bay looked unlikely even at the last but, under an expert ride from Ruby Walsh, the mercurial veteran finished strongly to burst between Flemenstar and First Lieutenant close home and get up in the dying strides.

    In form terms, Tidal Bay didn't actually need to reproduce the form he showed when second to Bobs Worth in the Hennessy, his narrow success in a pulsating finish earning him a performance rating of 166 compared to the career-best 174 he achieved at Newbury, but it did prompt a notable change in another area, with a decision taken to remove his much-discussed Timeform squiggle, a symbol that is used to denote a horse that should be approached with caution from a betting perspective.

    The squiggle was first handed to Tidal Bay after a couple of disappointing efforts in the 2008/9 campaign, with a reluctant performance when fifth in that season's Melling Chase seen as the final straw. However, despite still needing careful handling and displaying a trademark high head carriage, it's plain to see he's been rejuvenated since joining Paul Nicholls from the now-disqualified Howard Johnson, meaning it's only fair that the symbol bites the dust - for now, at least.

    The horse who actually shaped best in the Lexus was the favourite Flemenstar, and consequently his Timeform rating has gone up from 173 to 175. Peter Casey's 7-y-o came into the race on the back of seven straight victories and was simply stretched by the trip in the conditions, tanking along out wide under a more patient ride than usual and having everything else in trouble when cruising to front rounding the home turn but finding his earlier exertions taking their toll having touched down two lengths to the good at the last.

    Flemenstar deserves another crack at three miles in the Hennessy Gold Cup back at Leopardstown in February, but he now seems an unlikely Gold Cup contender and a clash with Sprinter Sacre (183p) in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham could be on the cards.

    Second-placed First Lieutenant improved 4lb to a figure of 166 and has developed into a remarkably consistent chaser. He got much closer to Tidal Bay than he had last time, despite being 7 lb worse off with that one, and will have place claims again in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

    Willie Mullins' Sir des Champs wasn't far off his best in bare form terms and is actually now rated 170, after we raised the John Durkan a few pounds. However, it was a performance that asked as many questions as it answered, as it was a rather laboured effort despite being back at a more suitable trip. Sir des Champs was off the bridle well before the other principals due to some indifferent jumps, but he stayed on well late on to almost get up for third and still has time to stake his Gold Cup claim, with the Hennessy in February likely to be his next port of call.

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