Lexus Chase 2012

[Old Vic]

Last weekend's Hennessy Gold Cup winner Bobs Worth is one of 27 entries for the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on 28 December.

Trainer Nicky Henderson has mentioned the Grade One event as an option for his latest star, although he could decide to keep him at home as he prepares for Cheltenham in March.

The second and third home at Newbury, Paul Nicholls' Tidal Bay and Mouse Morris' bold-jumping First Lieutenant, have the option of re-opposing at the Dublin course.

Other exciting sorts among the entries include Jewson winner Sir Des Champs and the flamboyant Flemenstar, while last season's Gold Cup runner-up The Giant Bolster, Across The Bay, Albertas Run, Cristal Bonus, Midnight Chase and Weird Al could make the trip across the Irish Sea.

There are plenty more interesting possible runners from the home team, such as injury-hit pair Pandorama and Weapons Amnesty plus Bog Warrior, China Rock and Hidden Cyclone while Sizing Europe has the Lexus as an alternative to the William Hill King George VI Chase.

[gigginstown]

Lexus Chase 2012

Can't see a thread and not inspired by Cheltenham tomorrow.

Flemenstar
Sir des champs
Tidal bay

Presume bobs worth won't show?



NO. HORSE AGE WGT TRAINER RTF% JOCKEY OR TS RPR
0 1321-1 Bobs Worth27 7 11-10 Nicky Henderson — 168 178
0 121-11 Sizing Europe43 10 11-10 Henry De Bromhead — 161 178
0 541-12 Tidal Bay27 11 11-10 Paul Nicholls — 171 178
0 2142-3 The Giant Bolster34 7 11-10 David Bridgwater — 166 176
0 111-11 Flemenstar19 7 11-10 Peter Casey — 147 175
0 2/123- Albertas Run259 11 11-10 Jonjo O´Neill — 165 173
0 2-0442 Realt Dubh19 8 11-10 Noel Meade — 127 173
0 45841- China Rock244 9 11-10 M F Morris — 156 172
0 12-P46 Follow The Plan55 9 11-10 Oliver McKiernan — 152 172
0 2154-3 Rubi Light19 7 11-10 Robert Alan Hennessy — 157 172
0 1111-2 Sir Des Champs19 6 11-10 W P Mullins — 159 172
0 F317-3 Midnight Chase55 10 11-10 Neil Mulholland — 157 170
0 13PF-4 Weird Al34 9 11-10 Donald McCain — 102 170
0 23-423 First Lieutenant27 7 11-10 M F Morris — 161 169
0 1233-2 Big Zeb47 11 11-10 C A Murphy — 143 167
0 F13-F1 Bog Warrior27 8 11-10 A J Martin — 109 166
0 110-P4 Calgary Bay20 9 11-10 Mick Channon — 135 165
0 113-33 Quito De La Roque20 8 11-10 C A Murphy — 104 165
0 P3-112 Across The Bay20 8 11-10 Donald McCain — 103 164
0 1113-0 Quel Esprit222 8 11-10 W P Mullins — 147 164
0 1P2-1P Cristal Bonus13 6 11-10 Paul Nicholls — 135 161
0 64-2P1 Forpadydeplasterer29 10 11-10 Thomas Cooper — 149 159
0 51/51- Prince De Beauchene307 9 11-10 W P Mullins — 110 159
0 13-11 Hidden Cyclone34 7 11-10 John Joseph Hanlon — 123 157
0 11P17/ Pandorama651 9 11-10 Noel Meade — — —
0 P0114/ Thegreatjohnbrowne731 8 11-10 Noel Meade — — —
0 F1221/ Weapon´s Amnesty1017 9 11-10 C Byrnes — — —

[mayo]

Time enough looking at this later giggy ...I'll go through the card for you at Cheltenham to get you interested

[Statto]

Bobs Worth looks a shoo in on stats

[Statto]

British-trained runners (6-3-18) have won 6 of the last 10 runnings, including 5 of the last 6, from less than 23% of total runners since 2002. A further boost to their stats is the fact that they have only been represented in 8 of the last 10 renewals.



Price

10 of 10 winners went off at 8/1 or shorter

Not a race to be looking for an outsider with all 10 winners coming from the first 4 in the betting.

Favourites (4-2-11) have a fair record, having won 4 of the last 10 but showing a level stakes loss of 2.68.


Conclusion:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 6 to 8
Finished in the first 3 last time out (posting RPR of 153+)
Ran in last 50 days
Had run once or twice this season
Won over 3M+
Won a Graded chase
Ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup or RSA Chase in March
Ran in Hennessy Gold Cup or Betfair Chase last time
Course winner (or having first start here)
Trained in Great Britain (& ideally ran in 2012 RSA)
Priced 8/1 or shorter

[Old Vic]

Fat Jockey Lexus Chase Stats

[mayo]

Tidal Bay or Midnight Chase would be the stats pick ? British raiders have some record.

First Lieutenant might be overpriced too...

Pandaroma 3 from 3 on the track but obviously something of a shout in the dark.

Same with China Rock - first run since tongue tie did the trick at Punchestown.

[mayo]

Donn

Six o’clock on Friday morning, Lexus Chase morning, and if you are experiencing that sense of can’t-sleep anticipation that only a quality-laden captivating National Hunt race and Christmas Eve can engender, imagine how Peter Casey is feeling.

It’s D-Day for Flemenstar, his L-Day, Lexus day at Leopardstown. This is the day that we find out if he truly stays three miles. This time last year, he was just a progressive two-mile novice chaser. No match for Bog Warrior on his chasing bow, he had been impressive in winning his beginners’ chase at Navan at the end of November on soft ground.

You could never have dreamt up what happened next. Six runs since, six wins, including an Irish Arkle, a Powers Gold Cup and a John Durkan Chase, and Cheltenham Gold Cup talk. We know that he stays two and a half miles, now we are about to find out if he stays three.

He has every chance of doing so. On the plus side, he settled well in front in the Durkan Chase, and he certainly wasn’t stopping at the end of two and a half miles there on soft ground. Also, he is a full-brother to three-mile hurdler Barafundle, and he is from the family of top class staying chaser and stamina-laden Welsh National winner Carvill’s Hill. On the negative side, he shows so much pace over two and two and a half miles, he goes about his business with such zest, that there has to be a chance he won’t be able to carry on going for another four furlongs.

If I had been betting on the stamina-for-three-miles issue after the John Durkan, I would have bet around 4/6 yes, 6/4 no. Now, however, on L-Day morning, confidence has ebbed a little. It’s more like 10/11 yes, 11/10 no. Nothing has changed materially, it’s just a gut feeling. Watching Leopardstown over the last two days, that hill is looking steeper than it has ever looked on this ground. And there was more rain last night. I’m not sure how much, but we’re about 12 miles from the track and there are puddles outside.

Flemenstar’s task is as difficult as it could plausibly be. There are varying degrees of proving your stamina. If you are racing over three miles against a 120-rated three-mile chaser, you don’t have to stay the trip as well as if you are racing against Sir Des Champs. There was a chance that Willie Mullins’s horse was going to go to Kempton for the King George instead of staying here for the Lexus, but that didn’t materialise. This is the right race for him, left-handed, in Ireland, just travelling up the road as opposed to across the water, back at Leopardstown, where he is one for one.

He has five lengths to find with Flemenstar from their running in the John Durkan, but there are three factors that give the Gigginstown horse hope. Firstly, he was making his seasonal debut in the Durkan Chase, whereas Flemenstar had had the benefit of a run. Secondly, he is proven over today’s trip while Flemenstar is not. And thirdly, there is a suspicion that Sir Des Champs may be a little better going left-handed, like at Leopardstown, than he is going right, like at Punchestown, whereas we know that Flemenstar is dynamite going to his right.

You would have thought that the presence of the big two would have scared away at least some of the opposition, but that hasn’t happened. Paul Nicholls said after the Hennessy that this was the race for Tidal Bay, and he hasn’t wavered. Shark Hanlon said at the start of the season that this was the race for Hidden Cyclone, and he has stuck to that plan.

Gigginstown are also allowing Quito De La Roque and First Lieutenant take their chances, Neil Mulholland has taken Midnight Chase over, Noel Meade is allowing the 2010 winner of this race Pandorama take his chance, run for the first time since he raced on ground that was too fast in the 2011 Cheltenham Gold Cup, and Mouse Morris has figured why not with China Rock. Where else would he go?

It is a fascinating contest, the best renewal of the Lexus since Beef Or Salmon beat subsequent Gold Cup 1-3-2 War Of Attrition, Forget The Past and Hedgehunter in the race in 2005, with a more absorbing preamble.

It’s L-Day all right. Maybe F-Day. Careful now.

[mayo]

Mouse Morris is confident First Lieutenant and China Rock will be involved in the finish of the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown today.

First Lieutenant ran a cracker for third in the Hennessy at Newbury, but China Rock hasn't been seen since scoring at the highest level at the Punchestown Festival.

"I couldn't be happier with both of them and I expecting big shows from both. First Lieutenant has had a good start to the season. The ground isn't going to be ideal for him but it's the same for all of them and hopefully he'll be all right," said the trainer.

"China Rock is terribly well and even though it's his first run in a while, he's straight enough. He doesn't take much getting ready. He's a big price, but he doesn't know what price he is and I'm hopeful he's going to run very well. I wouldn't like to split the two of them."

Colm Murphy's Quito De La Roque needs to bounce back to form, with his trainer saying: "He came out of the Aintree race very well, he was as fresh as a daisy afterwards and the Lexus is the obvious race to go for. He won't mind the ground and he has run well round Leopardstown before. He's very well and we just hope he runs a nice race."

Paul Nicholls sends Tidal Bay and is keen to find out how the British form measures up against the best Ireland has to offer in the staying chase division.

He said: "It's going to be interesting taking on the two very good Irish horses but Ruby felt the track and the ground at Leopardstown would suit the horse so we're looking forward to it. His performance off top weight in the Hennessy suggests he's still improving and he deserves to take his chance."

Neil Mulholland acknowledges Midnight Chase faces a difficult task, but could not be happier with his condition. He said: "He's in very good form. He feels well and fresh in himself, so fingers crossed.

"He has come on since his run in the Charlie Hall. He needed that run a bit more than I thought. Hopefully they don't get too much more rain at Leopardstown. It's obviously a very good race, but where else do you go? He has to run in the good races and the ground here is better than it is in England at the moment."

[mayo]

Shark Hanlon is keeping his fingers crossed Hidden Cyclone can handle a marked step up in grade for the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown today.

The seven-year-old has won three of his four outings over fences and was impressive on his return to action at Gowran Park.

His trainer said: "He's all ready to go and he's in great form - I couldn't have him any better. Hopefully he won't mind the ground and we'll just have to see how he gets on."

Hanlon continued: "It's as good a Lexus as I've seen. Our horse is lowest rated in the race (153) and he has to prove he can do it at this level now. In fairness to the horse, he has never been tested at this level, so we don't know how good he is."

The field also includes Noel Meade's long-absent Pandorama.

Meade said: "He's in good form and we are hoping for the best. It might be a bit much to ask him to come back and win a race like this after all that time off, but he's in good shape and we can't do any more with him at home.

"He'll probably come on for the run, but hopefully he'll run a good race."

[Old Vic]

se: Timeform's Runner-by-Runner Guide
Flemenstar: Will be looking to add another win to his CV
View market

Timeform look at the runners in a strong and exciting renewal of the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown on Friday.

China Rock was back to best in first-time tongue tie when showing unexpected stamina reserves to win the Punchestown Gold Cup by 5 lengths from Follow The Plan. Needs to be at the top of his game on reappearance.

First Lieutenant has already posted 2 cracking efforts this season, second in the James Nicholson at Down Royal before chasing home Bobs Worth and Tidal Bay in the Hennessy, best of those ridden prominently in both.

Flemenstar is a bold jumper who has developed into a top-class chaser at 2m to 2½m, ending the unbeaten run of Sir des Champs in the John Durkan last time. Will be hard to beat if he can last home over 3m.

Hidden Cyclone boasts an impressive strike-rate and has earned this step up in class with wins at Naas and Gowran this season. However, did come up short in a Grade 2 novice here last term and needs to improve.

Midnight Chase landed a Grade 2 at Cheltenham in January. Satisfactory return to the fray when third in Charlie Hall at Wetherby last month, but looks to hold place claims at best here.

Pandorama pulled out a high-class performance to win this by 6 lengths in 2010/11 but not seen since mid-field in that season's Gold Cup and needs to be well primed and as good as ever to have any chance.

Quito de la Roque got up late to collar a spent Sizing Europe in last season's James Nicholson at Down Royal but only third on all 3 starts since, including this corresponding race. Needs a thorough test of stamina.

Sir des Champs won first 8 starts under Rules, including a Grade 1 novice (25f) at Punchestown in April, but came unstuck behind Flemenstar in the John Durkan on reappearance. Return to 3m will suit.

Tidal Bay is an enigmatic performer but rejuvenated by current trainer, running a huge race under top weight when second to Bobs Worth in the Hennessy at Newbury last time.

Timeform 1-2-3
1. Flemenstar
2. Sir des Champs
3. Hidden Cyclone

Timeform View: Flemenstar has developed into a top-class chaser and, while his stamina for 3m is not guaranteed, the manner of his recent victory over Sir des Champs certainly indicated that this trip should be within his reach and he should prove hard to beat. Sir des Champs rates the biggest danger, with First Lieutenant, Tidal Bay and Hidden Cyclone all respected in a high-class renewal.

[Royal Tan]

Pat Keane

You simply run out of superlatives when it comes to the riding of Ruby Walsh.

At Leopardstown yesterday he gave Tidal Bay the most extraordinary of drives to land a thrilling Lexus Chase.

One of the more kind words to describe Tidal Bay in the past was ’enigmatic’, but he has greatly benefited from being moved to the Paul Nicholls yard and having, arguably, the greatest National Hunt jockey of all time in the plate.

Walsh hunted him round at the back, as Midnight Chase and Hidden Cyclone carried the field along.

Turning for home Flemenstar, partnered with more restraint than usual by Andrew Lynch, coasted into the lead, looking all over a winner.

At this stage Walsh was rowing away in fifth on Tidal Bay. Flemenstar was still nicely in charge jumping the last, but began to feel the pinch at the back of the fence.

First Lieutenant threw down a determined challenge, but then Walsh switched Tidal Bay between the pair and the veteran swept through to beat First Lieutenant by a head, with Flemenstar a further half a length away in third and Sir Des Champs just another short head behind in fourth.

Nicholls said of Tidal Bay: "He was quirky for a reason, but we have found out how to train him. He has a devastating turn of foot.

"I would love to have had him when he was a younger horse, but am delighted to have him now. He doesn’t know how old he is and, if he was eight, would be favourite for the Gold Cup! He will probably have to go for the Gold after that, but wouldn’t want good ground. The alternative is the Stayers’ Hurdle.

"We had the right man on board, tactically there is no one better than him. The horse is in serious order and I never saw him looking better than he did today.’

Walsh said: "He’s a wonderful horse, has been called every name under the sun and they are all wrong. I got a split between First Lieutenant and Flemenstar, he shot into it and won."

Walsh, however, said he was not in favour of a tilt at the God Cup, favouring the Stayers’ Hurdle.

In a handful of days, Tidal Bay will be a 12-year-old and one could be forgiven for thinking the fact he was able to beat the best we had to offer means Ireland can forget about winning the Gold Cup come March.

We can be certain, however, that it is nowhere near as simple as that. First Lieutenant ran a cracker, is a relatively young horse with a big future, who has shown a major liking for Cheltenham in the past. He now goes straight for the Gold Cup.

You could make a case Flemenstar hit the front a trifle soon, but that would be churlish. Peter Casey indicated he would come back to Leopardstown for the Hennessy. That will tell us even more, but the evidence really is three and a quarter miles at Cheltenham will be too far.

And what of Sir Des Champs? He made a couple of mistakes on the far side and they clearly dragged him out of his comfort zone.

He did remarkably well to finish so close and should not be in any way discounted. He, too, will return to Leopardstown for the Hennessy.

[Yeehaa]

Mordin ( Willie Mullins trains China Rock )

SIR DES CHAMPS SHOULD BE GOLD CUP FAVOURITE

Those with long memories will recall that back in 1995 the Cheltenham Gold Cup was won by the greatest mudlark of recent times in Master Oats. That big race win was the seventh time Master Oats had won in seven completed starts on soft or heavy ground.

TIDAL BAY (41) is beginning to look just as good a mudlark as Master Oats after his win in the Lexus Chase over Christmas. His storming late charge to victory means he has now won four of the last six times the going has been genuinely soft or heavy judged by race times or going stick readings. In his two recent losses on such ground he was a fast finishing one and a quarter length second in the Betfair Chase to Gold Cup winner Imperial Commander and to Gold Cup favourite Bob's Worth in a red hot renewal of the Hennessy.

Like Master Oats Tidal Bay seems to have bottomless stamina. He can get himself a long way behind due to his careful jumping. But if the ground is soft enough he always seems to be able to pull himself back into the race.

84 horses older than ten have lost the Cheltenham Gold Cup since What A Myth won the race as a twelve year old way back in 1969. Tidal Bay will be as old as What A Myth was when this season's Gold Cup is run. But if the ground comes up as soft as it was when What a Myth scored or when Master Oats won you'd have to be pretty brave to oppose him.

Tidal Bay's cautious approach to jumping has ensured that he's never fallen in 38 chase and hurdle starts. But he blundered and got rid of his jockey in last year's Grand National so perhaps Aintree's big fences aren't his thing. Then again if it came up soft for the National and his jockey managed to stay in the saddle he'd surely go close.

Actually Tidal Bay is slightly better over hurdles according to my ratings. So I'd be even more interested in his chances of taking the World Hurdle the Gold Cup if the ground proves soft enough for him at Cheltenham.

Runner up FIRST LIEUTENANT (41) looked sure to win when getting the better of a lengthy duel with Flemenstar only to get caught on the line by Tidal Bay's tremendous late charge.

Trainer Mouse Morris has said in the past and again after this race that First Lieutenant is better on faster ground in the Spring. I go back and forth on this idea and can’t really find strong evidence for or against. The fact that he’s won a Grade 1 on heavy ground during the Christmas of 2010 is however persuasive. It makes it hard to argue he doesn’t handle such going or is best in the Spring.

In fact I don’t really see any strong patterns in First Lieutenant’s form at all. Apart from that one time at Fairyhouse a year ago where he put himself out of the race with an almighty blunder he has run one big race after another - routinely earning ratings in the 39-41 range from me.

Morris says First Lieutenant has strengthened this season. He did look immature a couple of years ago but has filled out significantly since. So I think he’s right. The horse has certainly run three big races in three tries this term. He won two of the three times he ran in Grade 1 races over hurdles and has run second in the four Grade 1’s he’s tackled over fences at this distance of three miles or more. I can’t knock him. He could easily be good enough to win the Gold Cup.

Third placed FLEMENSTAR (41) was cruising between the last two fences and looked certain to score. But his stride began to shorten running up to the last and he visibly ran out of stamina. He ended up getting beat a head and half a length in a race he looked set to win by five or six lengths between the last two fences.

I've been saying for ages that Flemenstar won't stay three miles. But he came a lot closer to doing so than I expected here. I therefore cannot say he won't be able to win the Hennessy over the same course and distance next time. Joncol won the Hennessy off a slow pace despite failing to get home the other seven times he ran beyond 2m 6f. It could just be that a slower early pace or faster ground might well be enough to see Flemenstar score as well.

The concern is that everyone now knows Flemenstar's stamina is suspect. So any time he goes three miles the jockeys on his main rivals will be keen to go a strong pace to ensure Flemenstar's stamina is tested.

Whatever happens in the Hennessy it does seem clear that Flemenstar now has no realistic chance of staying the Gold Cup distance. So I imagine he'll go for the Ryanair Chase if he's sent over for the Cheltenham Festival at all.

Fourth placed SIR DES CHAMPS (41) finished strongly after making three significant jumping errors, the last of which two out looked to cost him around two lengths. Seeing that he picked up five or six lengths in the last quarter mile to get beat less than a length it's hard to argue he wouldn't have won with a clean jump at the second last.

In this race and on his seasonal debut Sir Des Champs has shown seemingly bottomless reserves to pull himself back into the race from near impossible positions. It now looks rather clear that he's much better on more testing tracks than the dead flat Leopardstown. . The previous time he ran at Leopardstown he only got home by half a length in a rather weak Grade 2, running quite some way below his best.

The steep uphill finish at Cheltenham clearly suits Sir Des Champs very well. He's won at the Cheltenham Festival the only two times he's run at the course.

It is worth noting that in recent years the Cheltenham Gold Cup seems to be favouring young horses with records like that of Sir Des Champs. Specifically runners aged seven or less that previously ran first or second in a three mile plus Grade 1 chase which had also earned Racing Post ratings higher than 165.

There have been eleven such runners in the Gold Cup since 1996. This is how they've fared;

1996.......Imperial Call....................WON 9-2

1999.......Florida Pearl....................third

2000.......Gloria Victis....................fell

2002.......Best Mate.........................WON 7-2

2005.......Kicking King....................WON 4-1

2006.......War Of Attrition...............WON 15-2

2007.......Kauto Star.........................WON 5-4

...............Exotic Dancer....................second

2008.......Neptune Collonges............third

2011.......Long Run...........................WON 7-2

2012.......Long Run...........................third

These stats and my interpretation of Sir Des Champs' form and race times suggests that he should be a warm favourite for the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The 7-1 the bookies are offering about his chances for that race looks way too big.

Fifth placed CHINA ROCK (34) crossed the line 5.5 seconds behind the winner. But he was only 1.7 seconds behind landing over the last. Seeing that he was 45 lengths clear of the next horse home I'm inclined to believe his jockey allowed him to coast on the run in. If he'd maintained the 1.7 seconds gap to the line he'd have earned a rating of 39 from me - not far off his best. That's quite some feat for a horse coming into a big race off such a long break.

China Rock had a delayed start to last season due to going lame. He showed signs of a revival when setting too fast a pace for the heavy going but still finishing fourth in the Grade 1 Champion Chase over an inadequate two miles at the Punchestown Festival. Just four days later he won the Punchestown Gold Cup.

China Rock does seem to appreciate a recent run. He has now won four of the last six times he's come into a race off a break of 25 days or less and ran a very good third to Kauto Star and Sizing Europe in one of his losses.

This being so it was worrying that China Rock was attempting to win this race off a break of 244 days. Over the last 17 years 91 horses have run in three mile plus British or Irish chases after the Hennessy worth 65,000 or more off breaks longer than 123 days and they all lost.

The reason China Rock has been off so long is that he went lame again before his intended seasonal debut in October. His trainer Willie Mullins said at the time

"He's lame. He should be OK but he'll be out for a while. I'd be hoping he'll be back for Leopardstown (at Christmas). It's not the old injury, he's just clipped his joint. Hopefully he'll be OK."

China Rock's record suggests he’s best going uphill and down dale over fences rather than running on a flat track like Leopardstown. He’s won four of the six times he’s run two and a half miles plus in Irish chases run on tracks the Racing Post describe as undulating - finishing a close second and third in Grade 1’s in his two losses. On flat tracks he has run in five chases and failed to reach the first three every time. All those four runs were at Leopardstown.

[Yeehaa]

QUITO DE LA ROQUE (19) was allowed to come home in his own time from two out, so I wouldn't take his wide margin of defeat too seriously.

Quito De La Roque’s main claim to fame is that he won the Grade 1 JNWine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal last November.

With three to jump in that race Quito de La Roque looked to have very little chance of winning. He was in a distant third place, twenty lengths behind two leaders who had steadily been extending their advantage over him. He was trading at 279-1 in running.

But soon after the third last the two leaders began to tire in the soft ground, so badly in fact that they took 7.1 seconds longer to cover the roughly three furlongs from there to the finish than Kauto Stone did in the other big chase on the card.

Before the leaders tired Quito De La Roque visibly had trouble going the pace but from three out he started catching them and eventually got up to win on the run in.

The impression I got from that run was that Quito De La Roque was going to prove much more of a Grand National than a Gold Cup horse. Horses that win the Cheltenham Gold Cup don't get outpaced as he did there.

Next time out Quito De la Roque got rather outpaced again on good ground when eleven lengths third in last year’s renewal of the Lexus.

I can’t trace why Quito de La Roque was off for nearly a year after that run. But he returned on soft ground to run a decent third by almost five lengths in this year’s JNWine Champion Chase, two and three quarter lengths behind second placed First Lieutenant.

On his next and latest start before this run Quito de La Roque started favourite for a decent Listed race in Britain at Aintree. There were only four runners around the tight Mildmay course and this enabled the front running second to pick up the pace twice - once after a half mile or so and the second time as they kicked for home with about half a mile left. Both times the pace increased Quito De la Roque was outpaced, stretched into slight jumping errors and lost ground. He kept on well but looked like what he is - a great big lumbering oaf of a horse with no acceleration at all. He would surely have been a lot happier jumping the giant fences on the adjoining National course over four and a half miles.

It's easy to be dismissive of a one paced stayer like Quito de La Roque. But on heavy ground he is quite some horse. In fact he’s won five of the last six times he’s run on heavy ground and finished second by three quarters of a length in a Grade 1 in his only loss.

The race I'd love to see Quito De La Roque go for is the Grand National. If the heavens opened before that race and turned the ground heavy I'd rather fancy his chances. If the ground became heavy for the Hennessy I could see him running big there too.

HIDDEN CYCLONE (12) demonstrated pretty clearly that he does not stay three miles because he tired rapidly to get beat nearly ninety lengths after being headed at the second last. We still don't know whether he'll be competitive in Grade 1 company at shorter trips. But it has to be a worry that his three losses have coincided with the three occasions he's met genuinely top class rivals.

The ground was too soft for MIDNIGHT CHASE and all we learned about PANDORAMA off a near two year break is that he was probably not fit enough to do himself justice.

[mayo]

Race Video http://www.fatjockey.com/festivals/r...hase-Stats-127