Troytown Chase 2012 Navan

[Statto]

You lot are slacking around here ...should have this race in your Big Races list. Had to go to racecaller

The Ladbrokes Troytown Handicap Chase takes place at Navan on Sunday 25th November and is one of the highlights of Navan’s National Hunt calendar. A grade B handicap chase run over 3 miles it is a very strong trends race with the majority of winners being unexposed chasers prominent in the market.



Below we take a look at the trends for the past 10 years:



Age (Win-Place-Runners)

5yo: 1-1-2

6yo: 1-3-19

7yo: 4-9-46

8yo: 2-5-44

9yo: 1-6-34

10yo: 1-1-11

11yo+: 0-0-6

Horses aged 5 to 7: 6-13-67

Horses aged 8+: 4-12-95

Both winners aged 9+ had run in 10 or fewer chases (and just 3 handicap chases).



Breeding

Irish bred: 9-22-133

French bred: 1-1-11

British bred: 0-2-16

Other: 0-0-2

Irish bred horses have won 9 of 10, though they represented almost 81.1% of total runners.

Both French bred horses to make the frame were aged 7.



Weight (Win-Place-Runners)

Horses carrying 10-10+: 1-8-59

Horses carrying 10-9 or less: 9-17-103

2008 winner, Notre Pere, was the only horse in the past 10 years to win carrying more than 10-9 and he subsequently won the Welsh National and the grade 1 Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup.

Top Weight: 63705534945 (0-4-11)



Official Ratings

Horses rated 133 or higher: 2-7-34

Horses rated 118 to 132: 7-12-100

Horses rated 97 to 117: 1-6-28

6 of last 7 winners were officially rated between 118 and 129.



Recent/Past Form

9 of 10 winners had last run in past 30 days

9 of 10 winners finished in the first 5 on their last completed start

9 of 10 winners posted an RPR of 125+ on last chase start

10 of 10 winners had won over 2M 4F+

6 of 10 winners had previously won at Navan

9 of 10 winners had previously run in 6 to 16 chases

10 of 10 winners had won 1 to 4 chases

8 of 10 winners had run in 4 or fewer h’cap chases (2 exceptions had run in 6 & 9 h’caps)

9 of 10 winners had won no more than 1 handicap chase (exceptions had won 2 handicap chases)

9 of 10 winners were second season chasers (exceptions was a 3rd season chaser)

7 of 10 winners had run in a Grade B or higher chase (2 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 or 2 hurdle)



Other Races

Ladbrokes Supporting Longford GAA Beginners Chase winner (Crash): 1 (1-0-1)

Woodlands Park 100 Club Novice Chase winner (Medical Card): 109P5 (1-0-5)

Flyingbolt Novice Chase winner (Donnas Palm): P (0-0-1)

Kiltoom H'cap Chase winner (Orpheus Valley): 8P (0-0-2)

2 of 10 winners ran in that year's Irish National, finishing 53

2 of 10 winners ran in the EBF Novices Handicap Chase here in March, finishing 12

2 of 10 winners ran in the Woodlands Park Novice Chase, finishing 1F

2 of 10 winners ran in the PJ Moriarty Novice Chase, finishing F6

5 of 10 winners (4 of last 6) ran in a handicap chase at Punchestown Festival, finishing 2P1P3



Trainers

Willie Mullins (1-1-10) trained the winner in 2009 and is only trainer with an entrant to have won the Troytown in last 10 years.

Noel Meade (0-3-17) has managed just 3 places from his 17 representatives.

Michael Hourigan (0-2-3) has saddled 2 runners-up from 3 runners since 2002.



Price

10 of 10 winners were priced 10/1 or shorter

There have been no major shocks since 2002, all 10 winners coming from first 5 in betting.

Favourites (3-1-12) have won 3 renewals in past 10 years & show a level stakes profit of 4.33.



Summary:

Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:

Aged 5 to 7
Carrying 10-9 or less
Officially rated 118 to 129
Finished in first 5 on last completed chase start (posted RPR of 125+)
Ran in the last 30 days
Won over 2M 6F+
Course winner
Run in 6 to 16 chases (winning 1 to 4)
Run in 4 or fewer handicap chases (and won no more than 1)
Second season chaser
Previously contested a grade b or higher chase
Ran in a handicap chase at 2012 Punchestown Festival
Trained by Willie Mullins or Michael Hourigan
Priced 10/1 or below

[Statto]

Date Track Winner Odds Trainer Age Weight OR Jockey Going Distance
27.11.2011 Navan Groody Hill (IRE) 10/1 Roche, C 5 10-3 124 Crowe, A P Soft To Heavy 3m
21.11.2010 Navan Jack The Bus (IRE) 9/1 Casey, Peter 10 9-12 119 Crowe, A P Soft To Heavy 3m
22.11.2009 Navan Beroni (IRE) 7/1 Mullins, W P 7 10-7 119 Townend, P Heavy 3m
23.11.2008 Navan Notre Pere (FR) 6/1 Dreaper, J T R 7 11-7 138 Lynch, A E Heavy 3m
25.11.2007 Navan Royal County Star (IRE) 100/30 Martin, A J 8 10-0 124 Colgan, R C Yielding 3m
26.11.2006 Navan Cane Brake (IRE) 10/1 Taaffe, T J 7 10-6 129 Geraghty, B J Soft 3m
27.11.2005 Navan Prince Of Tara (IRE) 11/2 Mahon, S J 8 10-4 118 Geraghty, B J Soft 3m
21.11.2004 Navan Jack High (IRE) 5/1 Walsh, T M 9 9-11 113 Cotter, G Heavy 3m
23.11.2003 Navan Cloudy Bays (IRE) 3/1 Byrnes, C 6 10-2 119 Geraghty, R Good To Yielding 3m
17.11.2002 Navan Takagi (IRE) 4/1 OGrady, E J 7 10-4 135 Williamson, N Soft 3m
18.11.2001 Navan Lyreen Wonder 11/2 Moore, A L T 8 10-6 134 Cash, B M Yielding To Soft 3m
19.11.2000 Navan Lyreen Wonder 9/1 Moore, A L T 7 10-9 125 Cash, B M Soft 3m
14.11.1999 Navan Foxchapel King (IRE) 11/2 Morris, M F 6 10-5 120 Barry, J R Yielding 3m
15.11.1998 Navan Ryhane (IRE) 4/1 Moore, A L T 9 11-1 111 Treacy, T P Soft To Heavy 3m
16.11.1997 Navan Heist 7/2 Meade, Noel 8 10-8 0 Titley, J F Heavy 3m

[Navanman]

1 Tharawaat(139) (GElliott) MissJMMangan(7)(T) 11,09
2 Donnas Palm(135) (NMeade) Davy Condon 11,05
3 Start Me Up(134) (CFSwan) MsNCarberry 11,04
4 Tofino Bay(134) (DTHughes) Davy Russell 11,04
5 Medical Card(133) (NMeade) PCarberry 11,03
6 Faltering Fullback (GB)(131) (EMcNamara) Danny Mullins(B) 11,01
7 Crash(130) (MHourigan) Barry Geraghty 11,00
8 In Compliance(130) (DTHughes) Bryan Cooper 11,00
9 Jadanli(128) (PJGilligan) BMCash 10,12
10 Orpheus Valley(128) (TGibney) APHeskin(T) 10,12
11 Like Your Style(126) (EPHarty) Mark Walsh(T) 10,10
12 Romanesco (FR)(125) (GElliott) RWalsh(T) 10,09
13 Kyle's Turn(124) (MrsJBRoss) David Splaine(5) 10,08
14 Sean Airgead(123) (MMMcNiff) Michael Darcy(T) 10,07
15 Corskeagh Royale(122) (NMeade) Niall P. Madden 10,06
16 Mister First (FR)(121) (RAHennessy) AELynch 10,05
17 The Hard Hat(121) (CAMurphy) Robbie Power 10,05
18 Ballyburke(120) (PJRothwell) DJCasey 10,04
19 Zardsky(118) (TJNagle Jr.) Tom Doyle 10,02
20 Glenquest(117) (TO'Brien) Paul Townend(B) 10,01
21 (R1) Healys Bar(116) (OMcKiernan) Shane Crimin(7)(C)(T) 10,00
22 (R2) Miss Pepperpot(116) (FFlood) Phillip Enright 10,00
23 (R3) Bangonform(113) (DEFitzgerald) Declan Bates(5) 9,11

[mayo]

rode CRASH (2.25) for Michael Hourigan at Clonmel at the start of the month when we were tailed off but I’d be inclined to ignore that because it was his first run back and he needed it badly.

I’d expect him to put in a much better performance in the Ladbrokes Troytown Handicap Chase where conditions, trip and ground should all suit him.

[Sizing]

Gary O'Brien

Despite a reduced safety limit this year’s Troytown Chase looks as competitive as ever and THE HARD HAT appeals as one likely to go well. Colm Murphy’s eight year-old is nicely perched towards the foot of the weights, and while he must defy a career-high mark there was plenty of encouragement to be taken from his fourth at Galway on his return from a break. He has reportedly been aimed at this for some time – though in fairness he is hardly alone there – and as a previous course scorer who handles testing ground should give a good account of himself.

[Sizing]

Ruby on his

When I knew Willie Mullins wasn’t going to be represented in the Troytown one of the horses I hoped I might get on was Romanesco and was delighted when it happened.

I suppose jumping has been the big issue with this horse, but he got his act together for Timmy Murphy last time when winning at Fakenham. This is not a vintage Troytown, but will be seriously hard to win and I can only hope for the best.