Tweet
bit if fluffyness from JP, floats out another possible supplement.
Fat Jockey Patrons
Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated.
Become a Patron!
You can also make a one-off donation here:
Become a Patron!
You can also make a one-off donation here:
See more
See less
-
bit if fluffyness from JP, floats out another possible supplement. -
Is Il Est francais still turning up here? it's horses for courses at the end of the day and I'd fancy him to go well again at 12/1Comment
-
Hope so. Wouldn't back him again though. Too many ifs and buts.Originally posted by JamieSensible View PostComment
-
That’s why he’s 12/1 Sir.Originally posted by Lobos View Post
With no ‘if’s and but’s he’s 9/4.
With ‘ifs and buts he’s 12/1.
It’s called ‘probabilty’ and ‘liability’.Comment
-
I've had a big bet 12/1, price is too big for a horse who can dominate round the course like that.Originally posted by Lobos View PostComment
-
Be a shocking KG if Il Est Francais dominates and wins. His form is absolutely ordinary. The best horse he's beat is Hermes Allen, who wasn't near grade 1 class. His win last year looked good as and when it was happening, but the subsequent form is terrible and his runs since haven't been any good.Comment
-
It’s the course and distance that’s the positive for Il Est Francais but there’s no way I can back a horse that PU lto
Such a weird race this year, will have plenty to mull over during Christmas Day (lol) when we’ll have a firm view on who’s lining u
but couldn’t back IEFComment
-
If Ill Est Francais has anything remotely wrong with him that would keep him out of the King George, there would have been an announcement by now. I fully expect next week’s gallop to prove what they already know, an announcement soon after, and a shortening straight into 5/2.
No news in the last fortnight on I’ll Est Francais I would suggest is fairly positiveComment
-
Giovinco was also in that race, and he ran a blinder in the Brown Advisory at Cheltenham (RIP), so the form isn't entirely awful.Originally posted by DenmanSacre View Post
Course form can't be overlooked here, with the exception of the two Irish winners nearly all the other winners have ran at the track before.
the only dangers I see are Banbridge and Corbetts Cross if the current entries.Comment
-
... and out of those two, Bandbridge has yet to run over 3 miles chase (a big negative for me, loads of middle distance horses have tried this at single prices and failed). Despite that, he is quality here, and I may consider if the field cuts up and there is no obvious front runnerOriginally posted by JamieSensible View Post
I was impressed with Corbetts two runs at the end of the season, but he's a proper stayer whilst not the quickest of jumpers. Course form is a big positive, failing that for the Irish, I'd want them to be a horse you'd likely see come down in trip, not up. Corbett looks like a GC or National type, the opposite you want for a KG on a sharp track, which is likely going run on quickest ground
I cant bring myself to back a 10 year old, so there goes the likes of Envoi Allen
Grey Dawning is way too short for me. I dont mind horses going to the betfair chase, in the mud, and finishing 3-4th. But horses that are pushed all the way out, and then stopping like that, that has to have left a mark. Reminds me of when Clan Des Obeaux pushed Bristol, and then finished 8L back from Frodon in the King George. Too short now and he'll have to be one hell of a horse to come back fit and ready from that last race
Il Est Francais, I love a CD winner. But that PU... if I can get a free bet on him, great but I have to stick to my guidelines, which include "dont back horses for grade 1's if they pulled up LTO"
I kind of like L'Homme Presse, Venetia is so good with getting her horses to peak and he could come in here and run well.
I'd be disappointed if Hewick won this again, think he won a strange renewal last year (oh, there was some big names in that race but most have failed since that race)
I already backed Bravemansgame before the Charlie Hall. Yup, ouch. Backed him each way as I thought he would be there in the place mix, and the KG field tends to cut up. I have a very very small chance of seeing some cash back from that bet
The one horse I have backed, a mad outsider, is Jungle Boogie. Not sure he'll turn up though, but the way he travelled in the gold cup suggests to me that he would be quick enough and stay a gold cup. He's the one horse in the field which could throw up a Torando flyer / Hewick type shock. If he turns up, and the ground is soft, I could add to my bet again.
This could all come down to the going and pace
If good ground and limited front runners, Banbridge may break some of the trends
If softer, and we have pace, and he turns up, the big outsider :-)Comment
-
Connections are adamant CC is not a true stayer - they feel he didn't properly stay at Aintree, and his error in the Albert Bartlett was because he was running empty. He won the NHC because the rest were shit and his class got him through with the slow pace. It will be Kempton then Ryanair for him.
See how he gets on at Kempton - him and Spillane's Tower would be my idea of the winner and not decided yet until we see the final field.Comment
-
Any murmurs around the likelihood of Spillanes Tower being supplemented?Comment
-
Just for fun…
CC dosage (CD) is -0.67 which is normally a strong indicator of a horse that has more stamina in his pedigree than speed
just for reference… out of the last 9 winner, 7 of them had a CD of 0.00 or higher. Only two had a negative CD, Might Bite (-0.38) and Thistlecrack (-0.4)
does this help me find this years KG winner? lol not really lol. I think the going and the field line up will be the way to tackle this. Where’s the pace angle, who’s going to really enjoy the ground.Comment
-
-
Comment