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They are back, and so too is this thread.
Been covering for the boss at work this week as well as having a delightful time travelling to the North East due to the train strikes. As such, I am going to start with a couple of stats tables related to trainers and sires, and preview the curtain-raiser in note form. Any ideas or requests for stats/data are welcomed and will be fulfilled if possible. Any questions, comments or suggestions, please feel free to ask.
I AM NOT A TIPSTER. I AM NEVER A TIPSTER. NOTHING I WRITE IS EVER A TIP. THIS CONTENT IS SOLELY INTENDED TO INFORM, NEVER ADVISE
HEXHAM 3RD JUNE – PREVIEW NOTES
Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate (SR) across all juveniles is 9.54%, winner-runner (WR) 19.55%, improvement rate (IMP) 36.90%, clear round (CR) 96.07%, prize money per race (PMPR) ?1107.31
Race History/Stats
* Traditional curtain raiser, held each year since 2008 apart from 2020
* Average winning Dis 0.89 median, 1.14 mean. Figures lower only at Chepstow and Cheltenham.
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR of 103.43 over a stone lower than standard juvenile hurdle.
* Four graduates have gone on to contest the Triumph; Simarian (1st 2008, 7th Triumph), Lindenhurst (2nd 2013, 9th Triumph), Koi Dodville (1st 2021, 11th Triumph), Rupestrian (1st 2009, PU Triumph).
* Dinarius (5th 2008), Ocean Transit (4th 2008) and Linger (UR 2016) eventually earned RPRs exceeding 130
Course Info
* Undulating, galloping, left-handed track.
* Average winning Dis of 0.89 median, 1.11 mean are 0.46 lower than average runner; greatest discrepancy of all racecourses.
* Clear round 97.24% (+1.17 cf. standard), completion rate 77.91% (-9.36 cf. standard) lower only at Southwell.
* Odds-on SR of 40% is lowest of all British courses with 10 or more qualifiers.
* No discernible pace advantage
Ground & Pace
* Good. Dry weather forecast, watering to maintain.
* Three have made running in past. Solid pace anticipated.
City Of Ruins bg Donald McCain Unraced
Nathaniel (New Approach){7-f}(0.53) 2/1 Devilment 150 2nd Anniversary Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2015
Breeding
* Nathaniel 27.5% WR, including Zanahiyr, Burning Victory and Navajo Pass. Won this race in 2019 with Green Etoile.
* Full-brother Tuddenham Green won two Juveniles last term and finsihed second in Wensleydale.
* Nephew of Devilment (2nd Anniversary) and Nasee (minor staying hurdle winner)
Source
* Cost 7,000gns as yearling at Tatts October Sale.
* Donald McCain one win from five with racecourse debutants (Sacre Pierre a three-time winner in 2021/22).
Trainer
* 38.89% WR since 2018/19.
* 12 runners without a win at Hexam, 2nd in 2018 running with Weinberg.
Summary
* Outside of Junior NH Hurdles, previously unraced juvenile hurdling debutants have a first-time-out strike-rate of just 2.35%. Nevertheless, one such winner was trained by Donald McCain and this pedigree is an especially strong one for the time of year.
Hourless bg Alan King f5-1-0 (49) 57
Time Test (Green Desert){14-c}(1.36) 3/1 Blue Bit 107 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle, Tramore 1997
Breeding
* Time Test second season, one juvenile to date; Never No Trouble r9w1 RPR91
* Green Desert below average influence in juvenile hurdles (15.79% WR damsire, 15.38% WR sire)
* Family of Kutub, Blue Bit (3/1) only winning jumper of ten+ relatives from 3rd dam.
Source
* Cost 70,000gns at last year’s Tatts Guineas Sale.
* Self-trained Alan King juveniles 51.06% WR.
* Those rated 61 or below have 15% first time strike rate. However, those rated 56 or below are only one winner from thirteen, with Proprioception’s sole win from six coming in a Southwell mares’ handicap off 92.
Trainer
* Most winners of any trainer since 2004/05, 47.13% WR, 48.57% IMP
* Three runs in this race, one win (Green Etoile 2019), one second (City Dreamer 2017)
Flat Profile
* No show on first three outings, but won handicap debut off 47 at Wolverhampton over 1m1?f.
* Raced keenly in rear off modest tempo, green under pressure but led inside final furlong winning with bit to spare.
* Raised two pounds, still green when one paced 5th last time at Bath
Summary
* Represents most successful trainer in the sphere and does have a win to his name. However, that came at a decidedly modest level and there is also a concern that he could find himself unbalanced around Hexham.
Indication Rocket bg Rebecca Menzies f9-1-2 (61) 64
Dandy Man (Rip Van Winkle){14-c}(0.71) 3/1 Rocky Wednesday 140 3rd Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Fairyhouse 2011
Breeding
* Dandy Man 7.14%WR, 0-12 IMP. Chatez (Alan King rated 96 on flat) only winner.
* Rip Van Winkle 0-3 as damsire, 7.69% WR as sire.
* Third dam produced useful winners Bohemian Spirit and Rocky Wednesday
Source
* 16,000gns as 2yo at Tatts Guineas Sale.
* Sole self-trained flat recruit beaten only hurdles start.
Trainer
* 62.50% Improvement rate since 2018/19 is highest in GB.
* 26.67% First time strike rate, including three such winners last term. First juvenile at Hexham.
Flat Profile
* Most experienced runner in the field courtesy of nine outings. Modest on first three starts over 6f, but has steadily improved for switch to handicaps and step up in trip.
* Runner-up in slowly run 10f Newcastle Nursery in September, off the mark penultimate outing in mile handicap off 55 at same track in early May.
* Had run of race up front, but pulled clear again when caught inside distance to win by 2?l. No subsequent winners but those out since have run to form.
* Last seen ten days later finishing third at Wolverhampton over a further furlong-and-a-half off 61. Travelled strongly but no extra when headed turning for home.
Summary
*Rebecca Menzies is a very capable trainer of juveniles who finds improvement from her charges more often than not; which is very much a positive for a horse who is only a few pounds from the top rated. However, while the damline is sound, the sire and damsire have poor records and stamina around Hexham is not assured.
Uncle Matthew bg Evan Williams f6-1-0 (65) 69
Fast Company (Manduro){13-c}(0.78) 3/1 Scriptwriter 134 5th Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (G2,133), Ascot 2009
Breeding
* Fast Company since 2018/19; 41.18% WR, 22.73% SR (2nd highest) 64.29% IMP (5th highest)
* Manduro 3-12 WR, 62.50% IMP as damsire, 32.14% WR as sire
* Half-brother pulled up sole jumps start. Nephew of Hunter’s Light. Fourth dam produced Darshaan, along with useful jumpers Daraydan and Darialann.
Source
* ?16,000 Tatts Ascot March
* ex-John Gosden’s have below-average record in juveniles; WR 18.35%, IMP 22.97%
* First to join Evan Williams from Gosden’s
* Williams 31.75% WR with those bought at public auction. 29.79% for those costing ?20,000 or less. Ex-Gosdens 18.60% WR <= ?20,000
Trainer
* 27.97% WR, although only 9.52% since 2017/18
* 22.03% Strike rate during summer.
* Two runners in this contest; Simarian (1st 2008 – strongest juvenile graduate from contest; 1st Prestbury, 7th Triumph) Quickdrawmcgraw (2nd 2022)
Flat Profile
* Five-race 2yo campaign starting in Autumn saw him finish no closer than fourth with a BHA mark of 62.
* Made winning return in 1m3f Southwell handicap off 62; starting slowly, prominent halfway and stayed on dourly to prevail by head. Third, fourth and fifth all placed next time.
Summary
* Trainer not as prolific as he was previously, but still managed a second in this contest last year with 52 rated Quickdrawmcgraw. Pedigree is very solid, neither stamina nor attitude would be a concern, and the his Southwell win is as strong as any British form in this line-up. However, those leaving John Gosden’s often underperform when switched to hurdles.
Max Of Stars bf Ollie Pears f4-0-0 (55) 57
Cloth Of Stars (Rock Of Gibraltar){31}(0.67) 3/2 Tiger Roll 174 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2014
Breeding
* Cloth Of Stars first crop. 1st Ganay, 2nd and 3rd in Arc. 2/3 Elgin 3/2 Dodging Bullets, 1.62m
* Sea The Stars 35% WR as juvenile grandsire, 33.33% WR as sire.
* Two juveniles to date in France, each placing at moderate level.
* Rock of Gibraltar 13.95% WR as damsire.
* Third dam, On Air, 4th in Kennel Gate. Produced useful Khachaturian and dam of Tiger Roll
Source
* €8,500 as yearling from Arqana
* Sole placed juvenile My Brother Jack, trained on flat by Pears
Trainer
* 0-6 WR. No runners at Hexham. 100% IMP courtesy of My Brother Jack (sole qualifier)
Jockey
* Sean Quinlan won 2017 running with 8/1 shot Costa Percy
Flat Profile
* Made debut in February. Beaten at least eleven lengths first three outings in maidens at Southwell and Doncaster.
* Handicap debut off 56 at Southwell over 1m4f. Raced keenly with uncontested lead, headed final furlong, flashed tail under pressure. Finished 2?l fourth of six.
Summary
* Distant relative of Tiger Roll and first-season sire not without potential. However, while best form on flat came last time out, it still leaves enough to find and her attitude was not massively encouraging.
Waitara chf David Pipe f6-2-1 (30.0/66) TF68
Recoletos (Hernando){1-t}(0.54) 1/2 Theamoi 62.5 1st 3550m 3yo Handicap Hurdle (59.0), Fontainebleau 2022
Breeding
* Recoletos first juvenile runner. Won Moulin and d’Ispahan, 3rd French Derby. Half-brother to winning hurdler Pedregalejo. 1.63m
* Whipper’s sole juvenile stallion Very Nice Name 14.29% WR. Whipper himself 20% WR
* Hernando 29.27% WR as damsire inc. Punjabi, Adagio and Gaelic Warrior. 60.71% IMP
* Nephew of Timos. 0.5 Thea (1st 4yo Hurdle, Auteuil), 0.5 Ticinello (3rd 4yo Hurdle Enghien). 2/1 Trillion Stars, 3/1 Thagus (both winners)
Source
* David Pipe 7-22 first time ex-French Claimers; including last two winners of this race, Koi Dodville and Free Chakarte (both bought off Flat).
* Waitara second least expensive of such horses, only Jilaijone lower at €10,806; won first time at Fontwell last term for same owner.
* First export of Thierry & Ga?l Lemer.
Trainer
* David Pipe 46.67% WR since 2018/19 (5th highest) 38.46% SR during June.
* Last four runners in this race; Free Chakarte (1st 2022), Koi Dodville (1st 2021), Bathwick Scanno (2nd 2011), Lucky Quay (1st 2010)
Flat Profile
* Beaten by at least 12l on both outings at two, but began 3yo campaign with win in Pau 2000m claimer (retained for €11,001)
* Forgiven sixth place finish next time having missed break. Second penultimate outing; winner (2kg lighter) had run of race, stayed on well from remainder.
* Last seen winning 2100m Toulouse claimer in mid March. Broke slowly but soon in lead racing keenly. Caught at distance but responded generously for pressure; winning decisively by length and a half.
* Fifth placed finisher only subsequent winner. Nevertheless, runner-up has since been consistent in handicaps off 62. Mark in mid-high 60s would be appropriate.
Summary
* Last two runnings have gone to David Pipe trained ex-French claimers, and while Free Chakarte and Koi Dodville had slightly higher ratings, Waitara still emerges on top at these weights. Moreover, she has shown consistent form throughout 2023 and a good attitude to complement same. First-season sire yet to be tested but has perfectly reasonable credentials and the damsire and damlines are encouraging. Only concern would be a lack of form shown on ground better than soft.
Strong Prospects
1. Waitara
Reasonable Prospects
2. Uncle Matthew
3. Indication Rocket
Feasible Prospects
4. City Of Ruins
Moderate Prospects
5. Hourless
6. Max Of Stars
Negligible Prospects
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Been covering for the boss at work this week as well as having a delightful time travelling to the North East due to the train strikes. As such, I am going to start with a couple of stats tables related to trainers and sires, and preview the curtain-raiser in note form. Any ideas or requests for stats/data are welcomed and will be fulfilled if possible. Any questions, comments or suggestions, please feel free to ask.
I AM NOT A TIPSTER. I AM NEVER A TIPSTER. NOTHING I WRITE IS EVER A TIP. THIS CONTENT IS SOLELY INTENDED TO INFORM, NEVER ADVISE
HEXHAM 3RD JUNE – PREVIEW NOTES
Unless stated, all figures relate to British and Irish juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05
For context, the average strike rate (SR) across all juveniles is 9.54%, winner-runner (WR) 19.55%, improvement rate (IMP) 36.90%, clear round (CR) 96.07%, prize money per race (PMPR) ?1107.31
Race History/Stats
* Traditional curtain raiser, held each year since 2008 apart from 2020
* Average winning Dis 0.89 median, 1.14 mean. Figures lower only at Chepstow and Cheltenham.
* Average winners’ seasonal RPR of 103.43 over a stone lower than standard juvenile hurdle.
* Four graduates have gone on to contest the Triumph; Simarian (1st 2008, 7th Triumph), Lindenhurst (2nd 2013, 9th Triumph), Koi Dodville (1st 2021, 11th Triumph), Rupestrian (1st 2009, PU Triumph).
* Dinarius (5th 2008), Ocean Transit (4th 2008) and Linger (UR 2016) eventually earned RPRs exceeding 130
Course Info
* Undulating, galloping, left-handed track.
* Average winning Dis of 0.89 median, 1.11 mean are 0.46 lower than average runner; greatest discrepancy of all racecourses.
* Clear round 97.24% (+1.17 cf. standard), completion rate 77.91% (-9.36 cf. standard) lower only at Southwell.
* Odds-on SR of 40% is lowest of all British courses with 10 or more qualifiers.
* No discernible pace advantage
Ground & Pace
* Good. Dry weather forecast, watering to maintain.
* Three have made running in past. Solid pace anticipated.
City Of Ruins bg Donald McCain Unraced
Nathaniel (New Approach){7-f}(0.53) 2/1 Devilment 150 2nd Anniversary Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2015
Breeding
* Nathaniel 27.5% WR, including Zanahiyr, Burning Victory and Navajo Pass. Won this race in 2019 with Green Etoile.
* Full-brother Tuddenham Green won two Juveniles last term and finsihed second in Wensleydale.
* Nephew of Devilment (2nd Anniversary) and Nasee (minor staying hurdle winner)
Source
* Cost 7,000gns as yearling at Tatts October Sale.
* Donald McCain one win from five with racecourse debutants (Sacre Pierre a three-time winner in 2021/22).
Trainer
* 38.89% WR since 2018/19.
* 12 runners without a win at Hexam, 2nd in 2018 running with Weinberg.
Summary
* Outside of Junior NH Hurdles, previously unraced juvenile hurdling debutants have a first-time-out strike-rate of just 2.35%. Nevertheless, one such winner was trained by Donald McCain and this pedigree is an especially strong one for the time of year.
Hourless bg Alan King f5-1-0 (49) 57
Time Test (Green Desert){14-c}(1.36) 3/1 Blue Bit 107 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle, Tramore 1997
Breeding
* Time Test second season, one juvenile to date; Never No Trouble r9w1 RPR91
* Green Desert below average influence in juvenile hurdles (15.79% WR damsire, 15.38% WR sire)
* Family of Kutub, Blue Bit (3/1) only winning jumper of ten+ relatives from 3rd dam.
Source
* Cost 70,000gns at last year’s Tatts Guineas Sale.
* Self-trained Alan King juveniles 51.06% WR.
* Those rated 61 or below have 15% first time strike rate. However, those rated 56 or below are only one winner from thirteen, with Proprioception’s sole win from six coming in a Southwell mares’ handicap off 92.
Trainer
* Most winners of any trainer since 2004/05, 47.13% WR, 48.57% IMP
* Three runs in this race, one win (Green Etoile 2019), one second (City Dreamer 2017)
Flat Profile
* No show on first three outings, but won handicap debut off 47 at Wolverhampton over 1m1?f.
* Raced keenly in rear off modest tempo, green under pressure but led inside final furlong winning with bit to spare.
* Raised two pounds, still green when one paced 5th last time at Bath
Summary
* Represents most successful trainer in the sphere and does have a win to his name. However, that came at a decidedly modest level and there is also a concern that he could find himself unbalanced around Hexham.
Indication Rocket bg Rebecca Menzies f9-1-2 (61) 64
Dandy Man (Rip Van Winkle){14-c}(0.71) 3/1 Rocky Wednesday 140 3rd Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Fairyhouse 2011
Breeding
* Dandy Man 7.14%WR, 0-12 IMP. Chatez (Alan King rated 96 on flat) only winner.
* Rip Van Winkle 0-3 as damsire, 7.69% WR as sire.
* Third dam produced useful winners Bohemian Spirit and Rocky Wednesday
Source
* 16,000gns as 2yo at Tatts Guineas Sale.
* Sole self-trained flat recruit beaten only hurdles start.
Trainer
* 62.50% Improvement rate since 2018/19 is highest in GB.
* 26.67% First time strike rate, including three such winners last term. First juvenile at Hexham.
Flat Profile
* Most experienced runner in the field courtesy of nine outings. Modest on first three starts over 6f, but has steadily improved for switch to handicaps and step up in trip.
* Runner-up in slowly run 10f Newcastle Nursery in September, off the mark penultimate outing in mile handicap off 55 at same track in early May.
* Had run of race up front, but pulled clear again when caught inside distance to win by 2?l. No subsequent winners but those out since have run to form.
* Last seen ten days later finishing third at Wolverhampton over a further furlong-and-a-half off 61. Travelled strongly but no extra when headed turning for home.
Summary
*Rebecca Menzies is a very capable trainer of juveniles who finds improvement from her charges more often than not; which is very much a positive for a horse who is only a few pounds from the top rated. However, while the damline is sound, the sire and damsire have poor records and stamina around Hexham is not assured.
Uncle Matthew bg Evan Williams f6-1-0 (65) 69
Fast Company (Manduro){13-c}(0.78) 3/1 Scriptwriter 134 5th Holloway’s Handicap Hurdle (G2,133), Ascot 2009
Breeding
* Fast Company since 2018/19; 41.18% WR, 22.73% SR (2nd highest) 64.29% IMP (5th highest)
* Manduro 3-12 WR, 62.50% IMP as damsire, 32.14% WR as sire
* Half-brother pulled up sole jumps start. Nephew of Hunter’s Light. Fourth dam produced Darshaan, along with useful jumpers Daraydan and Darialann.
Source
* ?16,000 Tatts Ascot March
* ex-John Gosden’s have below-average record in juveniles; WR 18.35%, IMP 22.97%
* First to join Evan Williams from Gosden’s
* Williams 31.75% WR with those bought at public auction. 29.79% for those costing ?20,000 or less. Ex-Gosdens 18.60% WR <= ?20,000
Trainer
* 27.97% WR, although only 9.52% since 2017/18
* 22.03% Strike rate during summer.
* Two runners in this contest; Simarian (1st 2008 – strongest juvenile graduate from contest; 1st Prestbury, 7th Triumph) Quickdrawmcgraw (2nd 2022)
Flat Profile
* Five-race 2yo campaign starting in Autumn saw him finish no closer than fourth with a BHA mark of 62.
* Made winning return in 1m3f Southwell handicap off 62; starting slowly, prominent halfway and stayed on dourly to prevail by head. Third, fourth and fifth all placed next time.
Summary
* Trainer not as prolific as he was previously, but still managed a second in this contest last year with 52 rated Quickdrawmcgraw. Pedigree is very solid, neither stamina nor attitude would be a concern, and the his Southwell win is as strong as any British form in this line-up. However, those leaving John Gosden’s often underperform when switched to hurdles.
Max Of Stars bf Ollie Pears f4-0-0 (55) 57
Cloth Of Stars (Rock Of Gibraltar){31}(0.67) 3/2 Tiger Roll 174 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2014
Breeding
* Cloth Of Stars first crop. 1st Ganay, 2nd and 3rd in Arc. 2/3 Elgin 3/2 Dodging Bullets, 1.62m
* Sea The Stars 35% WR as juvenile grandsire, 33.33% WR as sire.
* Two juveniles to date in France, each placing at moderate level.
* Rock of Gibraltar 13.95% WR as damsire.
* Third dam, On Air, 4th in Kennel Gate. Produced useful Khachaturian and dam of Tiger Roll
Source
* €8,500 as yearling from Arqana
* Sole placed juvenile My Brother Jack, trained on flat by Pears
Trainer
* 0-6 WR. No runners at Hexham. 100% IMP courtesy of My Brother Jack (sole qualifier)
Jockey
* Sean Quinlan won 2017 running with 8/1 shot Costa Percy
Flat Profile
* Made debut in February. Beaten at least eleven lengths first three outings in maidens at Southwell and Doncaster.
* Handicap debut off 56 at Southwell over 1m4f. Raced keenly with uncontested lead, headed final furlong, flashed tail under pressure. Finished 2?l fourth of six.
Summary
* Distant relative of Tiger Roll and first-season sire not without potential. However, while best form on flat came last time out, it still leaves enough to find and her attitude was not massively encouraging.
Waitara chf David Pipe f6-2-1 (30.0/66) TF68
Recoletos (Hernando){1-t}(0.54) 1/2 Theamoi 62.5 1st 3550m 3yo Handicap Hurdle (59.0), Fontainebleau 2022
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Breeding
* Recoletos first juvenile runner. Won Moulin and d’Ispahan, 3rd French Derby. Half-brother to winning hurdler Pedregalejo. 1.63m
* Whipper’s sole juvenile stallion Very Nice Name 14.29% WR. Whipper himself 20% WR
* Hernando 29.27% WR as damsire inc. Punjabi, Adagio and Gaelic Warrior. 60.71% IMP
* Nephew of Timos. 0.5 Thea (1st 4yo Hurdle, Auteuil), 0.5 Ticinello (3rd 4yo Hurdle Enghien). 2/1 Trillion Stars, 3/1 Thagus (both winners)
Source
* David Pipe 7-22 first time ex-French Claimers; including last two winners of this race, Koi Dodville and Free Chakarte (both bought off Flat).
* Waitara second least expensive of such horses, only Jilaijone lower at €10,806; won first time at Fontwell last term for same owner.
* First export of Thierry & Ga?l Lemer.
Trainer
* David Pipe 46.67% WR since 2018/19 (5th highest) 38.46% SR during June.
* Last four runners in this race; Free Chakarte (1st 2022), Koi Dodville (1st 2021), Bathwick Scanno (2nd 2011), Lucky Quay (1st 2010)
Flat Profile
* Beaten by at least 12l on both outings at two, but began 3yo campaign with win in Pau 2000m claimer (retained for €11,001)
* Forgiven sixth place finish next time having missed break. Second penultimate outing; winner (2kg lighter) had run of race, stayed on well from remainder.
* Last seen winning 2100m Toulouse claimer in mid March. Broke slowly but soon in lead racing keenly. Caught at distance but responded generously for pressure; winning decisively by length and a half.
* Fifth placed finisher only subsequent winner. Nevertheless, runner-up has since been consistent in handicaps off 62. Mark in mid-high 60s would be appropriate.
Summary
* Last two runnings have gone to David Pipe trained ex-French claimers, and while Free Chakarte and Koi Dodville had slightly higher ratings, Waitara still emerges on top at these weights. Moreover, she has shown consistent form throughout 2023 and a good attitude to complement same. First-season sire yet to be tested but has perfectly reasonable credentials and the damsire and damlines are encouraging. Only concern would be a lack of form shown on ground better than soft.
Strong Prospects
1. Waitara
Reasonable Prospects
2. Uncle Matthew
3. Indication Rocket
Feasible Prospects
4. City Of Ruins
Moderate Prospects
5. Hourless
6. Max Of Stars
Negligible Prospects
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