Punchestown Festival 2022

[Exar Essay]

Patrick's won on him twice which I don't see as a negative. Patrick was very positive about him running well at the track again last week.I do think he'll have too much pace for Sir G on this track.

We’re both bumpers or did he ride his first win over hurdles?

[Benjy23]

Both bumpers. O'Keeffe rode hurdles debut.

[Eggs]

….Willie Mullins on his runner's;

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/willie-mullins-punchestown-festival-including-energumene-and-chacun-pour-soi/200238

[robith]

Posted in General Chat but Tony Keenan's piece on Mullins is must reading

https://www.attheraces.com/blogs/irish-angle/20-april-2022/fairyhouse-rewind-and-punchestown-preview

In particular this:

[archie]

Wednesday's declared runners:

https://www.irishracing.com/allraces?meeting=Punchestown_Wed_27th_Apr&prc=071&prd=20220427

[Atlantic Viking]

That 3m novice hurdle is a belter of a line-up.

[Spectre]

I think there's a couple of things to bear in mind with the Sir Gerhard vs Dysart Dynamo clash.

Firstly people point to Sir G being turned over by Kilcruit last year as a potential achilles heal at Punchestown this time around, but remember that the suggestion was that Sir G ran flat because of the change in feed and having not fully settled at Closutton after the transfer from Elliott's. He got away with it at Cheltenham, but not by the time Punchestown came around. Willie then said he turned inside out over the Summer and came back a much better and stronger horse this season when he settled into the daily routine and he had adapted to the feed.

Also Willie's decision to push Sir G up to the Ballymore and leave DD to the Supreme, wasn't because he doesn't see Sir G as a 2 miler, just that DD was far too keen to step up in trip whereas Sir G would have been fine for either race. He split them because he wanted to keep them apart which he'd said he's do from the outset.

Essentially I don't buy the reasons put forward for DD winning tomorrow, or that he should be shorter in the betting. That doesn't mean DD can't win, just that I think Sir Gerhard is the better horse on everything I've seen so far. I know Sir G didn't jump particularly well at the DRF, but either side of that he was low and fast, whereas DD has been big and cumbersome, and comes into this having fallen at the Festival. Sir G is just more professional in every way. DD won't thrive until he settles, at which point he will be much better up in trip.

The big prices for Sir G have gone now, and I wouldn't advocate a bet at odds on (perhaps in multis), but I think he's pretty solid tomorrow.

[Odin]

Don't see it happening when it's 44k to the winner of the sales race (Vs 73k to winner of grade 1)... And they specifically got him qualified for the sales race. It would be a flabbergastingly strange bit of race planning if he did go 3 miler anyway
... Or maybe my race planning eye isn't as good as I thought it was!

I officially don't know what I'm talking about any more.

[Odin]

That 3m novice hurdle is a belter of a line-up.

Wonder what prices Sky would give for...

A winner of the race to win at the Festival
2+ winners at next year's festival to come from the race
A horse to lose in the race but win at next year's festival

Doubt they'd price any other than the top, and expect that would be a rubbish price, but if anyone is able to find out any of the above, I'd be grateful

[charlie]

Really like Brides Hill in the opener tomorrow @ 13/2 (boosted to 7/1 with Hills). I couldn't have Dinoblue on my mind at 7/4. Decent maiden but ordinary last twice and she's backing up really quickly after Fairyhouse. I'd oppose Grangee for the same reasons. I think Party Central is too short at 3/1 and were she in different silks and not trained by GE she'd never be that price, so easy to oppose based on what she's actually achieved. Instit is a bit of an unknown but I suspect will want further and lack for experience, and Lunar Display is a classic case of always the bridesmaid never the bride. The horse thats left (cause the others are shit) is Brides Hill. I love a Gavin Cromwell target horse and she pissed in over Xmas beating an Imperial Cup winner and DRF winner really well. At the prices I'd have BH going there fresh over the others.

[Lobos]

I officially don't know what I'm talking about any more.

Me neither. Ignore me.

[Eggs]

Wonder what prices Sky would give for...

A winner of the race to win at the Festival
2+ winners at next year's festival to come from the race
A horse to lose in the race but win at next year's festival

Doubt they'd price any other than the top, and expect that would be a rubbish price, but if anyone is able to find out any of the above, I'd be grateful

….that would fit right with Saxon Warrior analysis, indeed I think he called it the ‘Wow’ race of the meeting when it comes to Cheltenham Festival winners. Difficulty is identifying next years target as this race has impacted BANC, NHC & Stayers, not to mention GDC winning it last year ant turning up in the Turners.

For that reason, I took a flyer (with cash-out) on a couple;

Ramillies 33-1 NHC- Mullins has got a decent record with 8yo in NHC after they have run in this race. He’s already said this is a staying chaser in the making who doesn’t transfer its form in training to the course.

Daily Present 40-1 BANC - can’t understand why this is 20-1 for Punchestown when the horse he beat impressively last time (Bronn) is 7-1. Regardless, this is a very speculative punt as I have no idea if Paul Nolan is sending this fella over fences next season. I haven’t seen a price for NHC or Stayers but I thought he was decent last time (2 behind won next time out).

[Zachx02]

I officially don't know what I'm talking about any more.

to be fair mate i didnt even know he qualified for that sales race so I'm just as bad!

[FinalFurlong91]

First time tongue tie on minella indo

[Odin]

….that would fit right with Saxon Warrior analysis, indeed I think he called it the ‘Wow’ race of the meeting when it comes to Cheltenham Festival winners. Difficulty is identifying next years target as this race has impacted BANC, NHC & Stayers, not to mention GDC winning it last year ant turning up in the Turners.

For that reason, I took a flyer (with cash-out) on a couple;

Ramillies 33-1 NHC- Mullins has got a decent record with 8yo in NHC after they have run in this race. He’s already said this is a staying chaser in the making who doesn’t transfer its form in training to the course.

Daily Present 40-1 BANC - can’t understand why this is 20-1 for Punchestown when the horse he beat impressively last time (Bronn) is 7-1. Regardless, this is a very speculative punt as I have no idea if Paul Nolan is sending this fella over fences next season. I haven’t seen a price for NHC or Stayers but I thought he was decent last time (2 behind won next time out).

Good luck with both - agree re figuring out which race they'll go for - very difficult. I will say though that this could be the best race for Sky's win and any race bet. It's such a deep field that any winner would be entitled to go favourite for RSA and/or NH Chase (maybe 2nd fave for that behind GDM). I dream of a couple of 33/1 offerings like with GDC last year.

With respect to Daily Present, Nolan appears to be in horrendous form looking at his RTF figure on Racing Post so that could (along with connections) could explain his price/chance but 40/1 could easily look a big price next year if they go that way