Punchestown Festival 2022

[Lobos]

Patrick re Sir G versus Double D........

“He was very keen in the Ballymore, particularly on the heavy ground, and he did well to win given that. He jumped better than he did at Leopardstown which was good to see. We wouldn’t have thought two miles would be a problem for him, he’s by Jeremy and with something of a flat-orientated pedigree.
"I don’t see the trip being an issue but with next year in mind you’d want to see him win well here if you’re going to think about taking on Honeysuckle or do you go chasing? This will be a help in that regard.

“I think he’s going to have to go to catch my fellow, though. I know Mikey Fogarty said to me before Punchestown last year he thought Dysart Dynamo was better than Kilcruit and Sir Gerhard. He'd be a fair judge and we’ll find out on Tuesday."

[Saxon Warrior]

It's likely that it's only a stop gap measure because of time pressures and that both horses will have some sort of operation in the summer. Sometimes the tie works and sometimes it doesn't but it can't be seen as a short-term positive or a long-term solution.

Yes, it's never great news, when breathing comes into question

About time Ireland joined GB and made it mandatory to advise when a breathing op has been done, rather than keeping it quiet.

[archie]

Sometimes this is a prelude to a breathing op, if the tongue tie doesnt work.

Its an interesting move, from Henry.

It's likely that it's only a stop gap measure because of time pressures and that both horses will have some sort of operation in the summer. Sometimes the tie works and sometimes it doesn't but it can't be seen as a short-term positive or a long-term solution.

[Odin]

Sometimes this is a prelude to a breathing op, if the tongue tie doesnt work.

Its an interesting move, from Henry.

Yeah that's a logical next step, will be interesting to see how it plays out. I'd love MI to win/run well with the tongue tie on and have his price shorten so I can feel optimistic about my 5/1 Gold Cup place bet over the summer!

Funny though, I didn't think either was particularly struggling with breathing. I was happy to accept Bob had hurt himself at the fourth last and that MI had just been beaten by two faster horses last two runs (Conflated/APT). Reinforces my earlier point that I'm clueless (but somehow profitable) at the moment haha

[robith]

Weird as I have that Bob & HYoneysuckle unbeaten bet still to go with Paddys, but I'm incredibly sanguine about whether Bob wins or not, cos realistically it should already be a loser

[Saxon Warrior]

This positive, negative or indifferent for him in your eyes?

EDIT - just noticed Bob Olinger has first time tongue tie on Tuesday as well. Both decisions have piqued my interest somewhat... dunno how though!

Sometimes this is a prelude to a breathing op, if the tongue tie doesnt work.

Its an interesting move, from Henry.

[FinalFurlong91]

This positive, negative or indifferent for him in your eyes?

EDIT - just noticed Bob Olinger has first time tongue tie on Tuesday as well. Both decisions have piqued my interest somewhat... dunno how though!

It'd be a positive as both his last two races he's not finished off strongly at all

[Odin]

First time tongue tie on minella indo

This positive, negative or indifferent for him in your eyes?

EDIT - just noticed Bob Olinger has first time tongue tie on Tuesday as well. Both decisions have piqued my interest somewhat... dunno how though!

[Odin]

….that would fit right with Saxon Warrior analysis, indeed I think he called it the ‘Wow’ race of the meeting when it comes to Cheltenham Festival winners. Difficulty is identifying next years target as this race has impacted BANC, NHC & Stayers, not to mention GDC winning it last year ant turning up in the Turners.

For that reason, I took a flyer (with cash-out) on a couple;

Ramillies 33-1 NHC- Mullins has got a decent record with 8yo in NHC after they have run in this race. He’s already said this is a staying chaser in the making who doesn’t transfer its form in training to the course.

Daily Present 40-1 BANC - can’t understand why this is 20-1 for Punchestown when the horse he beat impressively last time (Bronn) is 7-1. Regardless, this is a very speculative punt as I have no idea if Paul Nolan is sending this fella over fences next season. I haven’t seen a price for NHC or Stayers but I thought he was decent last time (2 behind won next time out).

Good luck with both - agree re figuring out which race they'll go for - very difficult. I will say though that this could be the best race for Sky's win and any race bet. It's such a deep field that any winner would be entitled to go favourite for RSA and/or NH Chase (maybe 2nd fave for that behind GDM). I dream of a couple of 33/1 offerings like with GDC last year.

With respect to Daily Present, Nolan appears to be in horrendous form looking at his RTF figure on Racing Post so that could (along with connections) could explain his price/chance but 40/1 could easily look a big price next year if they go that way

[FinalFurlong91]

First time tongue tie on minella indo

[Zachx02]

I officially don't know what I'm talking about any more.

to be fair mate i didnt even know he qualified for that sales race so I'm just as bad!

[Eggs]

Wonder what prices Sky would give for...

A winner of the race to win at the Festival
2+ winners at next year's festival to come from the race
A horse to lose in the race but win at next year's festival

Doubt they'd price any other than the top, and expect that would be a rubbish price, but if anyone is able to find out any of the above, I'd be grateful

….that would fit right with Saxon Warrior analysis, indeed I think he called it the ‘Wow’ race of the meeting when it comes to Cheltenham Festival winners. Difficulty is identifying next years target as this race has impacted BANC, NHC & Stayers, not to mention GDC winning it last year ant turning up in the Turners.

For that reason, I took a flyer (with cash-out) on a couple;

Ramillies 33-1 NHC- Mullins has got a decent record with 8yo in NHC after they have run in this race. He’s already said this is a staying chaser in the making who doesn’t transfer its form in training to the course.

Daily Present 40-1 BANC - can’t understand why this is 20-1 for Punchestown when the horse he beat impressively last time (Bronn) is 7-1. Regardless, this is a very speculative punt as I have no idea if Paul Nolan is sending this fella over fences next season. I haven’t seen a price for NHC or Stayers but I thought he was decent last time (2 behind won next time out).

[Lobos]

I officially don't know what I'm talking about any more.

Me neither. Ignore me.

[charlie]

Really like Brides Hill in the opener tomorrow @ 13/2 (boosted to 7/1 with Hills). I couldn't have Dinoblue on my mind at 7/4. Decent maiden but ordinary last twice and she's backing up really quickly after Fairyhouse. I'd oppose Grangee for the same reasons. I think Party Central is too short at 3/1 and were she in different silks and not trained by GE she'd never be that price, so easy to oppose based on what she's actually achieved. Instit is a bit of an unknown but I suspect will want further and lack for experience, and Lunar Display is a classic case of always the bridesmaid never the bride. The horse thats left (cause the others are shit) is Brides Hill. I love a Gavin Cromwell target horse and she pissed in over Xmas beating an Imperial Cup winner and DRF winner really well. At the prices I'd have BH going there fresh over the others.

[Odin]

That 3m novice hurdle is a belter of a line-up.

Wonder what prices Sky would give for...

A winner of the race to win at the Festival
2+ winners at next year's festival to come from the race
A horse to lose in the race but win at next year's festival

Doubt they'd price any other than the top, and expect that would be a rubbish price, but if anyone is able to find out any of the above, I'd be grateful