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Irish Grand National 2022

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  • Irish Grand National 2022

    Irish Grand National Betting Trends


    17/18 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
    16/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
    17/18 – Won over at least 3m previously
    16/18 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less
    15/18 – Irish bred
    15/18 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
    15/18 – Aged 9 or younger
    14/18 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
    14/18 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
    14/18 – Returned a double-figure (or triple-figure) price
    12/18 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
    12/18 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously
    11/18 – Unplaced favourites
    10/18 – Finished fourth or better last time out
    10/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
    9/18 – Rated between 130-137
    4/18 – Won by an English-based trainer
    3/18 – Ran at Navan last time out
    3/18 – Won last time out
    3/18 – Winning favourites
    The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 28/1

  • #2
    So we want a 3 mile+ winner, who is 9 or younger, carrying less than 11 stone that has run in the last 8 weeks

    surely there wont be another stats buster after a 7yo won the english version

    Comment


    • #3
      I did Velvet Elvis simply because of the name - can't recall a more bizarre name for a horse.

      I see Price wise has tipped him now and caused his price to move.

      Might have a look again tomorrow but really need to stop backing multiple horses in big field handicaps

      Comment


      • #4
        Have had a skim through the field using the trends and the 7 I can see that fit them are

        Velvet Elvis
        Frontal Assault
        Time to get up
        Mister Fogpatches
        Streets of doyen
        Smoking Gun
        school boy hours

        Now to decide which ones to back
        Last edited by FinalFurlong91; 17 April 2022, 09:02 PM.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
          Have had a skim through the field using the trends and the 7 I can see that fit them are

          Velvet Elvis
          Frontal Assault
          Time to get up
          Mister Fogpatches
          Streets of doyen
          Smoking Gun
          school boy hours

          Now to decide which ones to back
          Frontal Assault and School Boy Hours for me, Mister Fogpatches always tends to run a good race too

          Comment


          • #6
            I have backed Mister Fogpatches and Farclas so far , Might add another one later , after a read through the form again.
            Edit..... Just cashed out Farclas and replaced with Time to get Up..
            Double Edit ... added Ten Ten as Mark walsh is riding .
            Last edited by BigChaang; 18 April 2022, 07:22 AM.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by FinalFurlong91 View Post
              Have had a skim through the field using the trends and the 7 I can see that fit them are

              Velvet Elvis
              Frontal Assault
              Time to get up
              Mister Fogpatches
              Streets of doyen
              Smoking Gun
              school boy hours

              Now to decide which ones to back
              Excellent work. I've ruled out Streets of doyen, Smoking Gun and Time to get up, but backed the other 4.

              Comment


              • #8
                Since 2008 a different trainer has won the Irish National every year as well as a different Jockey. Taking these stats into account and using Final Furlongs list, the only 2 that can win are.... Mister Fogpatches and Streets of Doyen.

                Easy this game .....
                Last edited by Lobos; 18 April 2022, 08:56 AM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  My main bet is going to be Early Doors. Looks quite plotty.

                  Frontal Assault and Farclas will probably be my only back ups.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Added Mr Fogpatches, still 16/1 with Boyle sports 7 places, has been cut with a lot of other bookies.

                    Small stakes reverse forecast with Elvis as well, it's now or never

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Ran some fairly similar trends but got down to Ten Ten, Mr Fogpatches, Champagne Platinum and Time to Get Up. Will back them all but Champagne Platinum the most solid on the trends imo, what knocked him out of the list above? 70+ on exchanges looks very generous.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I can't see why Final Furlong knocked him out either Benjy?? Meets my 2 stats as well.

                        Final Furlong, can you explain please??

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          In my very thorough sweep of the runners whilst enjoying a Guinness and watching the golf I must've missed him

                          He fits the trends I was using perfectly and is a huge price on betfair so cam have a couple of quid of my money

                          I've now backed
                          Smoking Gun, Streets of doyen and champagne platinum all huge prices on betfair for small stakes

                          Plus time to get up, Velvet Elvis and Frontal Assault at more sensible prices
                          Last edited by FinalFurlong91; 18 April 2022, 11:04 AM.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Cheers FF. Just the 3 left then. Champagne Platinum, Mister Fogpatches and Streets of Doyen. 3 Ew singles, combination forecasts and tricasts. Job done

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Foul play from Gigginstown with the late non runners?

                              Do you think its a rule needs looked at or addressed? Regarding reserves, declarations etc

                              Obviously no proving what they done, but very suspicious and can see why some could see it as a tactic. Or can it be looked at by stewards?

                              Comment

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