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Moriko De Vassy runs in the next at Doncaster (12:45). I know a few didn't miss that debut run over fences Interesting to see if he jumps better today!
Edit: Nowhere near as entertaining today
Last edited by Benjy23; 29 December 2022, 12:52 PM.
Most of these were picked out last night, after a few drinks.... so.... :-)
12:10 - Weveallvenncaught, think he'll come on a bit from his first run, similar to Hillcrest how he just powers through he race. New course and slightly slower ground from last time. Hermes Allen boost boost
12:45 - Backing two The Wolf was send to this and second again here earlier in the season. 12/1 each way Rapper 8/1, trainer doing well, will appreicate the step up in trip
13:20 - Thunder Rock, fancy this today, and think he could end up at the fez being single digits
13:55 - Brave Seasca, to repeat Aso win for V. Williams a few years back. The field (handicap wise) feels compressed to me, so backing who I think is a potential Grade 1 horse who's on the up. Top weight, but a lot of these have been found by the handicapper
14:30 - Going for a risky bet on Dashel Drasher - Connections/trainer have targeted this race today for Marie's Rock, and I still had her in front of the 3 that were in the International before it was canned. Surprised to see her drift so badly this morning, 4th, fav in places now... I dont like I Like to Move It - I think his OR and his RPR of 160 is over the top, and although First Street has form line with State Man, he's a weird horse for Henderson (handicapper.... going up to graded company... ??) - cant side with him. Botox Has is giving away a little too much for my liking here.
The horse which I discounted but I'm coming back round to is Dashel Drasher, would have preferred the ground to be softer, and yeah, he's now 10 years old... but I'm looking for a 2 and a half miler, who can probably stay 3 miles. Apart from Marie's Rock, there arent many others in that category.
Dashel's hurdle form reads 334111111. He doesnt have to carry around a penalty. At 10/1, think he's a decent each way bet in what looks to be a good race, but messy from a betting perspective
Cheltenham 1:50 Your Darling 10/1 E/W (Bet365 - 5 places) - I really like this horse as a potential for the Plate at the festival itself, so to be in off 132 amongst this crop I think he's a fantastic price for the weekend, I really do. I would advise anyone who hasn't seen his runs to go back and look at the display he put in at Ascot over 2m5f for his win, and the run at Kempton where he was beat over 3m. To me it's clear as day that He's plenty more to give over the intermediate trip. He scooted some 10 lengths clear over the last at Ascot before being heavily eased down to only score by 3 3/4 lengths. He was the last one off the bridle at Kempton before stamina gave way and he toiled in the final furlong and a half to finish 5th (just done for 4th on the line) by only 9 3/4 lengths. Ben Pauling has said the Plate at the festival is the target, the problem at the moment is that there is no guarantee he'll get in as he's only rated 132, prior to the last two years he wouldn't be getting in off that, so he does need to put his best hoof forward on Saturday to get a rise in the weights to be guaranteed a run in the plate. It tells me, that if the Plate is still the aim, then he will be a 'trier' on Saturday, and I think he still has bundles of ability left in him to give.
So, what about the opposition he is facing. I think Il Ridoto is a horrible price. He's run 4 times (including in France) over 2m3f+ and has yet to win. He's not a horse I think is crying out for the intermediate trip personally, and think the continuation of entries at the trip is more a mark reducing effort for him. Fugitif could well have more to give over the trip, but I'd like to see him back it up, although he did win in the same manor as Your Darling, so I couldn't discount him wholly. I think Brave Seasca is weighted to the hilt now, and his last run over c&d is one to forget, so I think he is easily opposable. Karl Philippe for all that he is a consistant type, I just think he is definitely towards the limits of his ability and struggle to see him winning a race of this nature. Silver Hallmark is weighted to go well, especially against the re-opposing Fugitif but he seems like one who has been difficult to get to the track, so no idea how he's going to perform off the back of that run, this will be the shortest time frame he's gone in back to back races, he seems to usually have a minimum 50 day break in between, for whatever reason. I'm not going to list every other horse in the race, but of the others, obviously a notable shout out to Coole Cody but how much longer can he keep doing it?
I think Your Darling is going to go very well indeed, so I opted for just the 5 place bet and the bigger price (some bookmakers are paying 6 places). IF I had to have one doubt it would be the track. He pulled up in his only start at the course, however he seems a much improved horse this season already so I'm not going to let that get in the way of a big bet on him for the race.
Nice write up. Going to watch his last two races as suggested.
You've already pointed it out but the fact that he was pulled up on this card last year when well fancied stands out as a bit of a negative. Not sure if there was any reason for that?
Going to have a look through the card myself shortly. Looks some interesting races. Tough time of year though. Especially with some not actually wanting to win.
Had a spin over hurdles, I imagine to get him ripe. Has the beating of Sounds Russian (now rated 161) already and now 2lbs better off with that one from their last meet. Has form to make up on Ahoy Senor, but that one is woefully out of form this season anyway. He's extremely lightly raced for his age and is 3 from 4 over fences. He looks to prefer better ground, currently soft but no rain forecast, so could go end up Good/Soft. He's not entered in the Gold Cup, so is this his Gold Cup performance? 14/1 to find out, I'm having some of that.
Last edited by ComplyOrDie; 27 January 2023, 03:15 PM.
In his blog Henderson says aims Scottish National for Dusart and it's all about building him up to that in Spring, so could be a clever mark exercise for a spin round the back
Cheltenham Trials Day has consistently thrown up Festival winners since the turn of the century, and this Saturday's nine-race card looks sure to shine a light on several hopefuls - but who will come out of leftfield?
Nice write up. Going to watch his last two races as suggested.
You've already pointed it out but the fact that he was pulled up on this card last year when well fancied stands out as a bit of a negative. Not sure if there was any reason for that?
After that I think it's very much a case of not liking Cheltenham, whether it's going left handed, the fences or the undulations on the track.
Hopefully he won't turn up in the Plate now as he's no chance based on that run.
Too late now but given tip by a bookie of all people re Rock My Way today. Same connections as Hunt Ball who Famously won at Fez some years ago. Certainly helped me into profit today. One to look out for in March definitely.
Really like the chances of Freedom To Dream on Saturday. He's got a great chance off 126 if running to the form of some of his hurdle races last year. Hoping I haven't given the kiss of death to his owner and FJ member!
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Interesting to see if he jumps better today!
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