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Tough day today, with most of the ones I like looking too short now.
Main bet - Caltex 1.42 Ayr (5/2 last night - was 2s this morning when I last checked)
He's placed off this mark (127) before in a much stronger contest behind Ballyhill at Aintree. That horse then placed in a couple of Grade 3 handicaps at Cheltenham. A couple of runs after that, back at Aintree again, Caltex finished 8th in the 2m4 Handicap Hurdle during the National meeting ahead of Mohaayed, Esprit Du Large, Mount Mews, Project Bluebook etc. Just spotted, whilst writing this, that he also finished a head 2nd to The Conditional in a maiden hurdle 2 years ago. Not relevant, but interested me!
He then moved from Henry Oliver to Claire Dyson (5 winners from 204 runners in the last 5 years), which succeeded in getting him very well handicapped. On his first run for Michael Scudamore in February, he won by 22 lengths at Leicester off 118. The 2nd place horse won next time out, albeit a hunters chase, but there were a couple of good horses in behind - Sir Mangan & More Buck's.
He goes well on heavy ground (form figures of 2211) and Scudamore has a very good record when sending horses North of the border. He has a strike rate of 33% in the last 5 years compared with an overall 12%. His stable are in decent form, with 3 winners from 5 in the past week. Having Richard Patrick claiming 3lbs is also very useful. I've always been amazed that he's still a claimer.
Others I like -
1.55 Ascot - Capeland - As long as the ground doesn't go too soft
2.45 Wetherby - Roksana - Price is far too short for me now
3:20 Wetherby - Vinndication - Took 4s earlier in the week, but again is very short now. I'm happy to take on Cyrname, who seems to be a different horse over 2m5 at Ascot compared with anywhere else. Ballyoptic is the danger, IMO, if the ground goes soft
3:40 Ascot - Valtor - Assuming that the ground does go soft, he seems a cracking bet (or at least was when he was double figures...). Won off 148 and finished 2nd off 150 in similar races before. Gutted that I missed the price as the plan was to wait to see the rain come before getting involved. Lesson learned - place the bet early if you like the price and then cashout/lay off if the conditions don't go how you want them to.
Good luck all.
Main bet - Caltex 1.42 Ayr (5/2 last night - was 2s this morning when I last checked)
He's placed off this mark (127) before in a much stronger contest behind Ballyhill at Aintree. That horse then placed in a couple of Grade 3 handicaps at Cheltenham. A couple of runs after that, back at Aintree again, Caltex finished 8th in the 2m4 Handicap Hurdle during the National meeting ahead of Mohaayed, Esprit Du Large, Mount Mews, Project Bluebook etc. Just spotted, whilst writing this, that he also finished a head 2nd to The Conditional in a maiden hurdle 2 years ago. Not relevant, but interested me!
He then moved from Henry Oliver to Claire Dyson (5 winners from 204 runners in the last 5 years), which succeeded in getting him very well handicapped. On his first run for Michael Scudamore in February, he won by 22 lengths at Leicester off 118. The 2nd place horse won next time out, albeit a hunters chase, but there were a couple of good horses in behind - Sir Mangan & More Buck's.
He goes well on heavy ground (form figures of 2211) and Scudamore has a very good record when sending horses North of the border. He has a strike rate of 33% in the last 5 years compared with an overall 12%. His stable are in decent form, with 3 winners from 5 in the past week. Having Richard Patrick claiming 3lbs is also very useful. I've always been amazed that he's still a claimer.
Others I like -
1.55 Ascot - Capeland - As long as the ground doesn't go too soft
2.45 Wetherby - Roksana - Price is far too short for me now
3:20 Wetherby - Vinndication - Took 4s earlier in the week, but again is very short now. I'm happy to take on Cyrname, who seems to be a different horse over 2m5 at Ascot compared with anywhere else. Ballyoptic is the danger, IMO, if the ground goes soft
3:40 Ascot - Valtor - Assuming that the ground does go soft, he seems a cracking bet (or at least was when he was double figures...). Won off 148 and finished 2nd off 150 in similar races before. Gutted that I missed the price as the plan was to wait to see the rain come before getting involved. Lesson learned - place the bet early if you like the price and then cashout/lay off if the conditions don't go how you want them to.
Good luck all.
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