Daily National Hunt Racing Tips

[Supermaster]

Colonial Empire looks good value in the Wincanton 3.55

Kept on well for 4th despite some idiosyncratic jumping. The front two given too much of a lead in this one.

[Supermaster]

Aintree 4.45 Corach Rambler/Premier D'troice

edit:
Corach Rambler wins 5/2 - form plus for McCain's Minella Trump

[Supermaster]

Lady Excalibur/Solway Molly/Miss Chantelle in the final mares' bumper at Aintree

edit:
I was hoping for an outsider previous winner like at Chelt yesterday but 5/1 was a good price for Lady Excalibur who looks useful

[opatcho]

Charlie Hall

Early thoughts
- Cyrname is short, pulled up twice now. Even keen on backing grade 1 horses who have PU next to their name, particularly two in a row. I think once they know they can pull up they are likely to get into a routine of 'giving up' when pushed. Also think he needs soft ground, weather watch as we go through the week
- Shan Blue, I've backed this at a price for the King George and the more I look at this, the less I like that bet. Think he needs to improve a lot, and this isnt a race which is won by a horse coming out of novice company. Has won twice tough on this course, so no concerns there
- Fusil Raffles is entered for a handicap at Ascot on the same day. Says it all really
- The rest dont look good enough to win this

The horse that stick out at the moment is Clondaw Castle. Appreciated the step up in trip last season, winning a handicap at kempton, then ran a second to Clan Des Obeaux at Aintree. Yeah, he finished some way back but feel there is still scope to run up to his mark over 3 miles. He's 6 lbs beind Cyrname on best RPR's last season and if I work it out correctly (based on race conditions) he'll get 2 lbs aswell (will double check this when confirmations are out)

[7barrows]

Minella Drama & Ahoy senor double 5/1 looks nice tomorrow

[charlie]

Two main Saturday bets:

Her Indoors @ 11/2 in the 13:55 at Wetherby looks a good bet to me. Some really solid form in the book and unlike all her rivals, had a spin on the flat recently, presumably to get her fit and ready for this. I loved the way she quickened up the hill LTO at Cheltenham and I think she's better than a 133 horse, and facing some rivals that might need a run.

Cyrname @ 11/8 in the Charlie Hall. Won last year without coming out of second gear and he's the best horse in the race by a long way. I expect Shan Blue to make it and jump well, but I'm not sure they think of him as a proper 3 miler, and I think Cyrname will be far too strong for this lot. The market can't decide but I think big money will come late and he'll be backed into even money.

The above + PTKO to place in the QMCC @ 52/1
The above + Editeur Du Gute @83/1

With some generous place terms on offer the following EW acca appeals:

Wetherby 13.55 - Her Indoors @ 11/2 (3 places)
Ascot 14:10 - Miss Heritage @ 22/1 (5 places)
Down Royal 14.15 - Glorious Zoff @ 9/1 (5 places)
Ascot 15:20 - Regal Encore @ 11/1 (5 places)

Treble @ 10/1

Envoi Allen
Frodon
Cyrname

GL all.

[opatcho]

Early fancies

Ascot - Boothill and Johnbb

Down Royal - Champion Chase
Small field, with...
1) A AB, RSA, Gold Cup winning horse
2) A horse that's ran over 3m 6f
3) A potential Gold Cup, Cross Country, National horse - basically a proper proper stayer
4) A GE horse that struggle with his jumping and has been "outpaced" several times now over 3 miles
5) A front running Ryanair/King George winning horse
6) A 11 year old ex National Hunt winner

This will be a tactical race, which Frodon will be able to dominate at the front. Soft ground not ideal for Frodon
I like the way Henry rests both of his GC horses, so less likely to have marks from a heavy previous season. Runs well fresh so not too worried
I still think Delta Work has some unfinished business this year, but will need to be on dead slow ground

Frodon / MI reverse forecast for me
MI + Envoi Allen double

[jack1092]

Antepost punted Frodon

Backing Gua Du Large in the 2m handicap. HDB does well with his hurdlers at the track. The horse looked talented early doors, possibly graded class. Lost his way, but other than the run at Fairyhouse which was a big field handicap the rest hint at decent potential. Last run was a nice run and would've been closer but for getting caught in a pocket.

Also taken a daft flyer on Meade's in the bumper. On American Mike for March, so probably not ideal if mine was to beat him lol, but Meade is in form and had a 4yo bumper winner at Galway which is a good sign. Nice pedigree and good pilot. Meade doesn't do bad here with bumpers 13 runners, 3 winners and 6 others in first 4.

[Supermaster]

Thoughts on the Ladbrokes Champion Chase at Down Royal

Minella Indo Has won some of these tactical grade 3m Irish chases but against lesser opposition and no Down Royal experience. His best form has been at Cheltenham!
Disappointed in the Savills and the Paddy Power last year. The best horse in the race but not so much in this type of race

Frodon - Ravenhill might be there to be a pest but it's doubtful he'll be good enough to dispute the lead - Sub Lieutenant failed to match Frodon in the 2019 Ryanair.
The soft ground is more of a concern. Frodon has won on soft and heavy but in these better races now seems to prefer good/good to soft. That disappointing end of season run against Mister Fisher - was that a sign of waning powers or the after effects of the Gold Cup (or MF better than I think)? On the plus side Frodon handles RH better now and goes well fresh. In the mix.

Delta Work - Has been a bit disappointing recently but was running on behind Kemboy in last season's Paddy Power and won that well in 2020, Lots of Down Royal experience inc 2 reasonable runs in this race - 3rd time lucky? He was very exciting as a novice.

Galvin - a big step up in class for this win machine who just does enough each time. I find Elliott's "this is a national horse line" a bit odd since if Galvin wins or runs well here he's bound to be top wt or nearly top wt: a big ask for a then 8-y-o with no National fence experience. This seems more like a prep for this season's Gold Cup

Even if Ravenhill comes back to his best his best is not good enough here imo. Likely in to pester Frodon.

I expect a much better showing from Frodon than in the Gold Cup but in what could well be a muddling race I think Delta Work is good value with his finishing speed.
Galvin is yet to prove himself at this level and Minella Indo is too short a price for me here.

Selection: Delta Work
Horse I want to win: Frodon

[Clinker]

215 Down Royal - Glorious Zoff will not be running due to ground being too soft. Not sure if this helps anyone.

[jack1092]

Frodon - Ravenhill might be there to be a pest but it's doubtful he'll be good enough to dispute the lead - Sub Lieutenant failed to match Frodon in the 2019 Ryanair.
The soft ground is more of a concern. Frodon has won on soft and heavy but in these better races now seems to prefer good/good to soft. That disappointing end of season run against Mister Fisher - was that a sign of waning powers or the after effects of the Gold Cup (or MF better than I think)? On the plus side Frodon handles RH better now and goes well fresh. In the mix.




Even if Ravenhill comes back to his best his best is not good enough here imo. Likely in to pester Frodon.

I expect a much better showing from Frodon than in the Gold Cup but in what could well be a muddling race I think Delta Work is good value with his finishing speed.
Galvin is yet to prove himself at this level and Minella Indo is too short a price for me here.

You might end up right, but not sure Ravenhill’s really ever been a front runner and the owners of Ravenhill are very local, so it’s more probable they wanted him to run for their benefit.

[opatcho]

I was thinking GE would send Raven out up front, but I’m struggling to see how he’d be quick enough to maintain a pace that will trouble frodon early on

One of the Irish needs to be up there with frodon, even if it’s a slight distraction and to prevent frodon from slowing the pace down early on

im going to have a bet in this, but I’ll be waiting until I see how they line up before the off

[opatcho]

This is my last post on this race, and its more of a record of my thoughts to review back later in the season

_____________________________

MI - fairly tricky race for him, first time out. This isnt his target, retaining his Gold Cup crown is. Dont think race tactics today will suit. Think he'll run a good race but will find one one thats better suited with today's conditions. There is a reason why Henry was so successful in March, he was able to get all of his horses peaking for the festival. So, I'll be looking at the others here, trainers who will have theirs in peak condition for today

Frodon - Actually had two tough races towards the back of the year. Running over the Gold Cup extended 3 mile, and then being pushed hard at Sandown, narrowly beating Mister Fisher. If Mister Fisher was in this race, I'm sure he'd be double figures. Irish have the upper hand over the GB horses. I think he'll travel ok, but will come under pressure 3 out. Last seasons efforts + going will be his downfall

Delta Work - not good enough, doesnt jump well enough. 3 times in this race, so unless Gord has him proper wired up for this, I'm struggling to see him win this one. Cliff horse for me, was tempted to take the 10/1's but concerned he will need the run

Galvin - Not sure how i've fell on Galvin. But here I am. There's been plenty of discussion about this horse on this forum, especially after his last race. Why would Gordon add to his handicap mark if they're targeting the grand national? Maybe Galvin was his National Horse up until Envoi Allen was moved out, is this desperation from GE to find a replacement? Or does he has a proper GC horse here.


Outcome: Meh!

[Supermaster]

Minella Indo could be the one to take on Frodon as he prefers a test of stamina. It is a trappy race even with only 5 runners

In the Charlie Hall there's a lot of trust needed to side with Cyrname so Clondaw Castle appeals more. Mighty Thunder could well be placed. I tend to think it's better to have too much stamina than too little. CC seems to stay 3m ok now. Shan Blue disappointed twice behind Chantry House - maybe the Kauto Star was not too strong a race? Can jump well when in the mood.

Selection: Clondaw Castle
ew: Mighty Thunder (only 7 runners )

[Supermaster]

Other tips in early races:
Ascot 1.35 Sizable Sam
Wetherby 1.55 Molly Ollys Wishes
Ascot 2.10 Miss Heritage e/w Bathsheba Bay
Wetherby 2.30 Thomas Darby/Indefatigable