Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

[Kevloaf]

I think perhaps their standards are slipping because they see your address and feel you're already in the bag. No point pulling out all the stops, when you're a repeat customer?

You should write them a strongly worded forum post and put a link to it on your next order under delivery instructions. A passive aggressive 'diss' via a horse racing forum will hit them right where it hurts, without any long term damange to the relationship if it can be salvaged?

If things don't improve, I'm happy anointing you the token vegan though, that's a good idea.

[Rooster Booster]

Yes K they did but it lost all credibility when Coneygree was forced to withdraw by the starter on vets advice leading to a war of words between the Bradstocks and Plumpton officials who no doubt had some influence over the vet...

Yes I applied for a job there one year. I don’t think it helped my chances when I tried to help them understand how they could have handled that situation better when they asked me about the importance of PR and marketing plays in winning over a new fan base. They still have the bonus. Lisp would have won it had he won the Grand Annual. This year king entered Edwardstone but pulled it out because of the ground and the race was won by thebannerkingrebel who jumped around on his own because his only other rival strategem fell at the first.

[Kotkijet]

Good morning one and all. With the packing ahead of my move down south (compared to Newcastle at least) and a few other distractions, I have found myself rather too spent to do a preview of the twenty runner at Punchestown. Furthermore, the internet connection where I am is hopeless so watching videos and so forth is not possible. I did the intro, but the bulk will have to be cold, boring, sterile stats I'm afraid. I don't think this field contains the Triumph 1-2-3 but if it does, I can carry the guilt to my grave. I can do a copy paste of the reviews from each horse's latest run, but anything more bespoke requires more mental energy than I can muster.

The columns are winner to runner rate, RPR >107 rate, improvement rate and overall strike rate.



Punchestown used to host a Grade 3 in January which since 2005, produced five winners of the Spring Juvenile, four winners of the Winning Fair, winners of the Fairyhouse Easter, Punchestown Champion and the Fred Winter along with a Triumph runner-up. However, the Grade 3 was last run in 2013 and the maiden hurdle introduced in 2019 has thus far had a negligible impact on the season's bigger races. This years edition looks to broadly match the race's standard, with the newcomers looking fairly ordinary, and the strongest hurdling form coming from those who ran creditably in maiden company last month. Punchestown's DIs of 0.97 median, 1.19 mean, makes it one of the more testing racecourses and the clear round rate of 95.73% is also lower than average. Nevertheless, hurdling debutants are generally not at a huge disadvantage and though racecourse experience can be a useful asset, those who ran at Punchestown last year did not fare particularly well in their respective contests.

Baltinglass Hill bg P J Rothwell f3-0-0 (75) 62 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Cable Bay (Iffraaj){16-a}(2.00) 3/0 Wheeler's Wonder 1st Juvenile Claiming Hurdle, Wincanton 1993
Baltinglass Hill set off with the others but was detached before he reached the first. His jumps that were picked up by the cameras were either slow or clumsy, and he eventually finished seventy lengths behind Dazzling Darren

Call Me Rocky bg Denis Gerard Hogan f6-1-3 (79) 83 j1-0-1 (-) 119 118
Society Rock (Intikhab){2-d}(1.46) 2/1 Boy Royal 1st 4yo Hurdle, Clairefontaine 2018
Call Me Rocky was the stable's second string behind Zoffanien on jockey bookings, and drifted from 25/1 to 40/1 in the market. His flat form, including a maiden win at Limerick and a second in a heavy ground handicap off 78 on his penultimate start, entitled him to a fair chance on his hurdling debut. However, it got off to a perilous start when he was badly baulked at the first hurdle. Nevertheless, he was able to settle into a rhythm and apart from getting close to the third, put in a solid round of jumping. Tucking behind the pursuers, he was always close enough to launch a challenge but was never able to land a telling blow and finished a length and a half behind the front pair. This was a respectable introduction and the standard of this performance is already in keeping with his flat form so he should continue to be competitive.

Coltor bg D K Weld f3-1-0 (86) 83 j1-0-0 (-) 111 112
Free Eagle (Red Ransom){14-c}(0.89) 2/2 Limini 1st Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
Coltor only made his racecourse debut at the end of August, but was not disgraced on his first two outings at Navan, and won on his third start at Navan over eleven furlongs on soft ground. A rare juvenile hurdler for Dermot Weld, he is bred to flourish in the sphere being a son of Free Eagle, and a relative of Limini, Call My Guest and Vintage Crop. He was not unbacked in the market and started the race sixth in the betting at 6/1. Settling well early on, he was held up in the rear and still had some nine horses ahead of him leaving the back. He made headway down the side and would reach the front of the chasing group at the elbow. He had no chance of catching the runaway winner, but in his absence, would have been a comfortable six length winner himself. His round of jumping was one of the cleanest in the field, and the only discernible flaw was where he very slightly skewed and pecked on landing at the third. The distance by which he was beaten puts a dampener on the performance from a form perspective, and he may be seen to better effect with an even sterner stamina test in due course. Nevertheless, it was a very commendable debut effort on his first run for eighty-four days, and he has set a solid foundation for his new career.

Complete Fantasy bg Peter Fahey f5-0-0 (54) 70 j6-0-2 (-) 118 118
Make Believe (Night Shift){42}(1.67) 0.5 Monkeylou 3rd 3-y-o Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2018
Complete Fantasy already had the experience of five jumps races to his name and after taking a couple of runs to get the hang of things, has become an honest and consistent performer. One element to his consistency is that while he largely jumps well, he is prone to making the odd error. Despite being ridden into the flight, he was big and slow over the second, got in close to the fifth and steadied into the penultimate flight before tripping over it. Racing just behind the leaders, he was another who was close enough in the concluding stages, yet unable to find that extra gear. Complete Fantasy thoroughly deserves to win a race of his own, but he is typically liable to find one or two a little stronger than himself.

Easca Peasca bg B R Hamilton f9-1-1 (74) 78
Born To Sea (Cadeaux Genereaux){1-t}(1.86) 0.5 Blues In Cee 4th Finesse Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2009
Formerly with John Oxx, trainer next to no experience in field, won soft ground ten furlong Fairyhouse handicap when last seen in October by five lengths off 65.

French Asset bg Gavin Cromwell f5-0-1 (75) 80 j3-0-0 (-) 82 82
Siyouni (Galileo){9-c}(0.73) 2/1 No Heretic 3rd Novices' Hurdle, Newbury 2016
French Asset has the flat ability and the right trainer to do well in the sphere. However, he achieved very little on his hurdling debut, and managed even less in subsequent starts. Lacking fluency on his first two outings, he was also poor here as he veered left at the first, got in close to the third, and was slow over the fourth

Knight Of Malta bg Denis Gerard Hogan f9-0-3 (78) 76
War Front (Galileo){19-b}(1.21) 3/1 Thunder Rock 1st 2m7f Handicap Hurdle (118), Bangor 2008
Horses formerly trained by Aiden O'Brien have a winners to runners rate of 20.90%, and the figure drops to 18.37% for those not trained by Joseph. Still a maiden after nine starts, he ran his best race to date when third at Dundalk on his stable debut, but finished midfield in a claimer at the same venue ten days ago. Stable has had just one win from forty-one newcomers and has stronger candidates in the race.

Palm Beach bc Joseph Patrick O'Brien f2-1-0 (-) 82 j2-0-2 (-) 120 124
Galileo (Anabaa){8-f}(0.77) 2/1 Armen 3rd Anniversary Hurdle (G2), Aintree 2001
Palm Beach won a reasonable maiden on the second of his flat starts and followed up with a good second to Crassus at this venue at the start of the month. His jumping was fairly novicey on that occasion but was better here apart from getting close to three out, and being slightly tired over the last. Tracking the leaders throughout, he appeared to make the winning move when jumping to the front at the penultimate flight. However, he was outjumped at the last and was never able to regain the initiative. This is the second time he has been outbattled in as many races, but does not appear to be one who shirks the duels. Crassus was a more experienced rival and the going, while heavy at the start of the month, was even more testing here and that ultimately made the difference. Palm Beach has the class and aptitude to win one of these things, and with very few miles on the clock, he may still be able to progress beyond this level.

Pretorius chg Gavin Cromwell f2-0-0 DeF
Durban Thunder (Saddex){1-e}(0.54) 2/1 Pahaska 2nd 3yo Newcomers Hurdle, Auteuil 2016
Pretorius provided viewers with some comic relief during the preliminaries by exuviating his jockey when leaving the paddock, and exploring the vast expanses of Punchestown racecourse. During his adventure in the snow, he even cleared one of the bank fences and while he was not especially tidy, and was slow getting away, he negotiated it safely enough. After joining his equine chums at the start, he became bored with milling around, and galloped along the road back to the saddling enclosure. While we learned nothing of his ability as a juvenile hurdler, Pretorius was still able to demonstrate a willingness to jump large obstacles, and an intelligence which may or may not be helpful in his intended vocation.

Raamez chg Gordon Elliott f8-1-0 FrF 36.5 (80.3) j1-0-0 (-) 8 7
Sea The Stars (Nayef){15-a}(1.86) 2/1 Takjreej 4th Selling Hurdle, Stratford 2012
Raamez won as a two-year-old for John Hammond and was not disgraced on his first outing for Fran?ois Rohaut back in May. However, his form deteriorated in the meantime and he fetched just 20,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Held up in mid-division, he was fluent enough in the early stages but his jumping fell to pieces after getting very close to the fourth and was a spent force with half a mile to run. This performance in conjunction with his regressive flat form leaves him with much to answer

Saeer chg Gordon Elliott f4-0-1 (63) 65 j1-0-0 (-) 88 87
Australia (Pivotal){6-e}(0.88) 2/1 Persian Warrior 1st Novice Hurdle, Stratford 2009
Saeer ran four times for Sir Michael Stoute, and with a flat rating of 63, joined Gordon Elliott for 9,000 guineas. An unused reserve at Leopardstown, horses leaving Freemason Lodge generally struggle to improve on their flat form and he was the least fancied of his yard's three runners. Held up in midfield, he never looked like getting competitive and still had seven ahead of him at the distance. He usurped three of those rivals but was still beaten forty-four lengths in the end. His hurdling had been reasonable prior to a slow jump at the sixth, and the round was capped off by a pair of tired leaps at the final two flights. It was not a disgraceful introduction and wanting for fitness, he likely blew up towards the end. He might be suited by an easier test.

Star Of Cashel bg J A Stack f8-3-1 (89) 95 j1-0-0 (-) 116 115
No Nay Never (Dubai Destination){11}(1.22) 2/1 Woody's Dream 4th 4YO Hurdle, Fontwell 2009
Star Of Cashel is a rare juvenile hurdler for Fozzy Stack, but he was the highest rated flat horse coming into the race and had shown himself game in nature. He was a drifter in the market beforehand and he completely lacked fluency on his introduction to the sphere, After making a blunder at the first, he was big and slow over the second, steady and close at the third and especially the fourth, and was close again at the next two before stumbling over the last. It is a appreciable amount of class which allowed Star Of Cashel to finish as close as he did and should he become more fluent, then he might be quite useful. Particularly on a sharper circuit.

Trebizond bg Henry De Bromhead j1-0-0 (-) 102 103
Golden Horn (Night Shift){4-n}(1.25) 0.5 Burns Night 1st Handicap Hurdle (83), Stratford 2013
Trebizond initially cost Godolphin 300,000 guineas as a yearling, but this close relative of Palace Pier never ran on the flat and joined Henry de Bromhead for nearly a tenth of the original price in September. Unraced newcomers generally have a poor record in the sphere. Nevertheless, Golden Horn has made a solid start as a sire of juveniles, and with Rachael Blackmore on board, Trebizond was sent off third favourite at 5/1. He was fresh early without being worryingly keen, but he made a tremendous blunder at the first and skewed in mid air at the third. The remainder of his hurdlers were taken well enough and having initially been ridden conservatively, he stayed on at one pace on the run-in to reach his best position inside the final half-furlong. Though a long way behind the winner, he will have learned a lot from this experience and can improve sufficiently to be competitive in ordinary company

Turkestan bg Mark Michael McNiff f4-0-1 (72) 74
New Approach (Seeking The Gold){3-c}(1.15) 0.5 Douman 4th 3yo Maiden Hurdle, Punchestown 2014
Left Roger Varian for 11,000gns at the Tatts August sale. Ex Varian horses have a respectable winners to runners rate of 32.14%, but a lesser improvement rate of 26.32%. The horse was twice beaten off 75 in August, but has largely ran to the same level on all four starts. Out of a half-sister to St Leger winner might help his ability to stay the trip. Trainer has not had a first time winner in the sphere.

Zoffanien bg Denis Gerard Hogan f6-2-0 FrF 37.5 (85) 58 j2-0-1 (-) 116 121
Zoffany (Monsun){1-n}(0.87) 2/1 Amarak 1st 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Auteuil 2011
Zoffanien was a fairly useful dual winner on the flat in France and made a pleasing start to his hurdling career at this venue behind Crassus and Palm Beach. However, his jumping was nowhere near as tidy on his return as after being badly baulked at the first, was hesitant and untidy at the second and while he was better over the next few, his round concluded with a series of untidy jumps. These errors were not serious and it is unlikely his confidence will be too aversely affected in the long run. Zoffanien was unable to match his debut performance but he was still a long way clear of the remainder and he should be able to bounce back from this showing.

Army Of One bf Gavin Cromwell f5-0-1 DeF GAG 63.5 (47) 67 j2-0-0 (-) 44 44
Kingston Hill (Authorized){2-n}(0.50) 2/1 Aberwind 3rd Handicap Hurdle (122), Compiegne 2020
Army Of One made her stable/hurdles debut in the Listed race at Aintree early this month, but finished ninety lengths behind the winner and would have been beaten further had they jumped more than five hurdles. Unfancied beforehand, she was always closer to last than first and made errors, some of them quite bad, at each and every hurdle.

Brides Hill bf Gavin Cromwell Unraced
Dylan Thomas (Groom Dancer){5-h}(1.22) 0.5 Count Simon 1st Handicap Hurdle (133), Perth 2019
Gavin Cromwell has had nine juveniles who began the campaign unraced, with only one being a winner and that happened on the sixth start. Two half siblings performed over two and a half miles and dam is half-sister to NH sire Gamut. Yard is still out of form.

Curious Bride bf Noel Meade f9-1-0 (80) 85 j1-0-1 (-) 108 113
Excelebration (Three Valleys){1-n}(3.00) 3/1 Low Sun 1st Handicap Hurdle (B,132), Galway 2018
Curious Bride had ran nine times on the flat but while initially rated 71, had began to look disappointing during the summer. However, she took advantage of a drop to 64 and ran out an easy winner of a twelve furlong Cork handicap in mid September. The runner-up has since won three times and Curious Bride was not disgraced on either of her subsequent outings at Dundalk where fifth on each occasion. The rating of 80 was the joint highest in this contest when counting her sex allowance and trainer Noel Meade won this contest in 2017. Her sire was some cause for concern as none of his thirteen juvenile hurdlers have won a race from forty-three attempts. Nevertheless, she was backed in the ring from 11/4 to 2/1 at the off and apart from reaching at the fourth and getting close to the fifth, jumped well on her debut. Another who raced prominently, she was not the quickest getting away from the last and while she put her head down on the run-in, she was unable to match the winner and was slightly worried out of the battle by her more imposing rival Autumn Evening. Notwithstanding, she was eleven lengths clear of the remainder and this progressive filly likely has more to offer in the coming weeks and months.

Lady Kapalua bf J P Dempsey j3-0-0 (-) 67 66
Maxios (Champs Elysees){1-l}(0.76) 3/2 Hills Of Aran 2nd Rendlesham Hurdle (G2), Haydock 2009
Lady Kapalua had been quite ignominious on her two starts to date coming at Roscommon in August, and Fairyhouse in December. Nevertheless, though she never left the rear and was beaten fifty-eight lengths, she posted her best round of jumping, and her best performance to date.

Poetica bf John Joseph Hanlon f6-0-1 (54) 61 j3-0-0 (-) 27 34
Lope De Vega (Motivator){10}(1.22) 0.5 Lilypad 1st Mares' Handicap Hurdle (98), Uttoxeter 2020
Poetica's first two runs over hurdles could be ignored as her saddle slipped at Cork, and he was hampered and unseated early on at Leopardstown. Starting at 125/1, she was in the rear throughout, was very steady and slow at all of the hurdles where she was picked up by the camera, and finished seventy-three lengths last of seventeen.

RESERVES
Anno Maximo bg David Harry Kelly f6-0-1 (62) 64 j1-0-0 (-) 36 35
Maxios (Singspiel){7-f}(0.76) 2/2 Aachen 2nd Veterans' Chase Final (146), Sandown 2016
Anno Maximo was second off a mark of 60 in a firm ground Bath handicap on his penultimate start for Micheal Bell, but his breeding suggested that he could do reasonably well over hurdles. However, he was unfancied in the betting and made minor errors without ever escaping the rear.

Hisdaywillcome blg Thomas Cooper Unraced
Dragon Pulse (Lucky Guest){1-e}(1.22) 0.5 Niven 1st 1m7f Handicap Chase (122), Catterick 2020
Thomas Cooper has yet to have a first time winner in the division and his three racecourse debutants were all soundly beaten.

Master Rocco chg P C O'Connor f13-0-1 (52) 59 j1-0-0 (-) 81 80
Dawn Approach (Shirocco){14-c}(0.68) 2/2 Mourad 2nd Champion 4YO Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2009
Master Rocco finished last in a claimer on his final start for Jane Chapple-Hyam and was completely unfancied here. Taking a keen hold early, he pulled himself to the front which is where he remained until the third last wherever he faded tamely. His jumping was poor over the first two flights but he settled into a rhythm and hurdled cleanly for the most part. Though he was beaten a long way, he was the best placed of the front runners and if he learns to settle better then he may be able to do himself justice in lesser company.

Other notes
Gordon Elliott has had seven runners in this race with the best placed coming fifth. Fozzy Stack trained the winner in 2019 while Noel Meade saddled the runner up.

Might do an arbitrary prospects list if I wake up early enough and have enough time remaining for the journey prep... Which is no certainty. Palm Beach and Coltor currently head the betting, and I would be more inclined to make the latter the strong prospect.

[dannycraigpirates]

As informative as ever Kotkijet let’s hope the french aseel form gets franked. Do you have this as your most likely winner atm?

[Kotkijet]

Been a very busy week but have got a few reviews done along with the preview for tomorrow's exciting curtain raiser at Ascot.

KEMPTON 9th January
Preview review
The first three were feasible or better on the prospects list, but in effectively the reverse order with strong prospect Kentucky Hardboot disappointing. The latter began to look in trouble before the turn for home and this is not the first time he failed to deliver do it is likely that he is given to inconsistency. The strengths for the winners case were notable, although they were dampened by his temperament which was less evident here. Tinnahalla took a while to settle but his jumping was better than at Newbury while Table Mountain ran a creditable debut without having the pace to be fully effective.

Race review
Historically, this contest is one of the weaker held at the venue and while above average in the grand scheme, it is not a prolific source of quality juveniles. With Bannister running at Chepstow, the race was effectively a maiden contest. Nevertheless, the was some useful hurdling form along with a few pricey recruits from the flat. It was one of these recruits which ran out a promising winner and the second and third pair, who were clear of the rest, were one who ran with promise and another who brought a high flat rating respectively. There is also encouragement from a time angle as the winner past the post under a second slower than the concluding 0-140 handicap with the latter contest having a stronger early gallop. The morning favourite had disappointed but overall, the finishing order and distances were appropriate and there were few alarming errors so the form looks predominantly reliable.

Sage Advice had been progressive in his six runs for Joseph G Murphy in Ireland, winning a soft ground ten furlong Cork maiden on his penultimate start, before finishing third in a Tipperary handicap off 80. After fetching 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale whereafter he underwent a wind operation. This in conjunction with his free sweating antics on the flat gave cause for concern ahead of his hurdling debut. Nevertheless, he attracted support throughout the day and this momentum was sustained in the ring where he was sent off as 7/4 favourite. Though he was certainly keen over the first half mile, he was not lathered in sweat and he settled adequately for the bulk of the contest. Tracking the leaders throughout, he moved into strong contention turning for home and shared the lead jumping the penultimate flight. After being shaken up on the run to the last, he jumped it with an advantage of a couple of lengths which was comfortably extended to half a dozen by the time he passed the line under a motionless Sam Twiston-Davies. Apart from being rather large and untidy at the first, and rather skewing at two out when diving to his right, Sage Advice jumped nicely for a hurdling debutant and with his superiority value for a few more lengths than the winning margin, this was a highly promising introduction. 126

Tinnahalla achieved fair form as a maiden for Jamie Osborne, and his being related to Thomas Hobson, Drifter and Celestial Halo made him an interesting recruit to the division. On his hurdling debut at Newbury, his inability to settle followed him from the flat and his jumping suffered as a result. He was once again very keen here and was still taking a hold deep into the race, although his jumping had improved as apart from getting close to the first, stumbling at two out, and steadying into the last, he round was cleaner for the experience. Leading from the outset, he afforded himself a breather during the middle stages of the contest before progressively increasing the tempo towards the business end of the contest. Though he was caught at the penultimate flight and left in the wake of the winner from there, he still had enough to repel the challenge of the third placed newcomer. Along with improved jumping, he also progressed from a form perspective to post a new career best effort. If he is able to settle better then a race of this nature would be well within his scope. 117

Table Mountain won one of her seven starts on the flat for Andrew Balding, and her official rating of 91 is the highest brought to the division by a filly this term. By Phoenix Reach and from the family of Ranch Hand, Scorned and Desert Quest, she is bred to do well in the disciple and was well spoken of by the trainer who acquired her for 57,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale. However, despite the non-runner, she doubled in price throughout the day having opened as the 5/2 favourite. Furthermore, her jumping was the least fluent of the leading three as she hopped and trailed her legs through the first, reached for the fourth, bunny-hopped the next and lost momentum at three out when steady and slow. Her cause was not helped by being squeezed on landing at the penultimate flight, but having raced prominently throughout, she was too one paced in the closing stages to make a real bearing on the contest. This was some way short of her best flat form, but it was not a debut without promise. She has the ability to win over this trip, although she may be of more interest with experience over a longer distance. 109

Ray's The One twice finished runner-up on the flat for a Michael Bell whose graduates fare well in the division. He earned a rating of 68, which is usually adequate for the sphere, although the 9,000 guineas tag is fairly inexpensive for his type. Held up in touch, he was another who was keen early and his wandering into the flights were exacerbated by several untidy jumps. Ray's The One was prone to hanging left on the flat but while there were traces of this habit over some of his hurdles, it would not be a pressing concern for the time being. He had found himself outpaced halfway through the contest and unable to do much more than keep on up the straight to take fourth from a fading rival. Though rather limited in his ability, this son of Mount Nelson (Penhill), out of a Bob Back mare, has enough scope to find some success over longer trips. 109

Kentucky Hardboot came close to causing an upset on his hurdling debut at this venue and his last time out second at Newbury was the strongest jumps form brought into this contest. He had Tinnahalla nearly nine lengths behind him there and having lost a shoe in the process, was strongly backed to break his duck. However, his confidence appeared to be affected as he gave the first plenty of air, got in close and pecked on landing at the third, was close again at the fifth and was slow and possibly tired going over two out. These errors were not enough to be of such detriment to his performance and he was already travelling uneasily with five furlongs left to race. He was the best part of ten pounds below his best here, but there was no reason for the ground to affect his performance and there were no vet reports after the race. Given that he was disappointing on his penultimate outing at Huntingdon, it is possible that Kentucky Hardboot is disposed to inconsistency. 107

More Than A Prince completed his two-year-old career with a win in a Brighton nursery off 73, but he failed to reach the frame in five outings during 2020 for either Richard Hannon or Richard Hughes. His stamina was not assured ahead of his hurdling debut and neither was his temperament as he had been unsuccessfully tried in different headgear on recent flat outings. Drifting from 18/1 in the morning to 50/1 at the off, More Than A Prince expended plenty of energy early on and his hopping rather than jumping exacerbated the stamina concerns. He was a spent force before the turn for home and well beaten when sprawling on landing at the penultimate flight. Tailed off and the last to finish, there was little encouragement to be drawn from this introduction. 76

Son Of Oz showed next to nothing in terms of aptitude or ability on his racecourse debut at Warwick last month and he was completely unfancied to fair better here. Once again, he lacked fluency in the rear and was pulled up before three out. 0

Epsom Dreamer beat just one of her seventeen rivals home in a pair of all-weather contests and was tailed off on each occasion. She jumped poorly in the rear and was fairing worse than Son Of Oz when pulling up before the same flight. Epsom Dreamer has since finished a detached last in a jumpers bumper. 0

Leylak 9/1/2021 Wincanton 1m7?f Maiden Hurdle
Leylak began his career in June and ran three times in maiden company for Michael Halford without breaching the first five. Nevertheless, he shown a decent amount of promise and this translated into a creditable first time effort when third at Newbury last month. The fourth and the fifth had since finished second and won respectively and Leylak was solid in the market going up against older rivals. However, while he jumped well for a newcomer at Newbury, he made numerous errors here as he was low at half of the hurdles along with wandering and steadying on the approach to a few and making a particularly bad blunder at three out. Keen early and racing prominently throughout, he was ridden turning for home and found himself outpaced on the straight while running green at times. Though no match for the front two, he regained third place on the run-in which is to his credit as he was reported to have bled from the nose. This performance did not quite his Newbury effort, and he still needs to mature and improve on his jumping. Notwithstanding, he is still a promising type and if none the worse following these excursions, he would be of interest in ordinary company following a break. 114

CHEPSTOW 9th January
Preview review
Yggdrasil was largely made the strong prospect as a result of his potential rather than the form he had in the book. In his and tearaway leader Bannister's absence, the prospects list will have matched the finishing order. Adagio had much the strongest tangible form, Nassalam had shown plenty of potential but was overestimated by the markets in comparison to Adagio due to connections. This pair finished a long way clear of the remainder headed by Houx Gris who was a big drifter through the day, with the rest of the field were covered by just over five lengths.

Race review
Historically, the Finale hurdle has a potent history of producing top class horses and while this season's edition perhaps appeared to lack obvious star quality, it was no worse than an average renewal and barring Monmiral, the field assembled was about as strong as possible for British trained horses. The front pair had the strongest form coming into the race and finished clear of the remainder. Their superiority on the day comes with caveats as the jumping outside of this duo was substandard and several were subject to factors detrimental to their performances. Nevertheless, the winning time was a compelling one as it was the fastest set in the contest this century along with being four and a half seconds faster than the novices' hurdle and seven and a half seconds quicker than the mares' handicap. Compared by seconds per furlong, the race was slower than the standard time by the chases on the card, but was much the quickest of those run over hurdles which suggests the ground was slower than on the chase track. Furthermore, while the time was likely exaggerated by Bannister's tearaway exploits, the final two furlongs were still quicker than on the other hurdle races over the distance on the day. As such, while the first and second were the only particiants who ran to their best, they should continue to hold their own in the season's top juvenile contests.

Adagio has improved with each outing since his introduction to the division in early November. Following a win at Warwick, he was quickly tuned out for Grade Two at Cheltenham where he found only Duffle Coat too good. His jumping had, at times, been a cause for concern on his first two starts, but he was decent when making a winning return to Cheltenham and apart from being untidy at the second, posted another good round here. Held up in the rear, he made steady headway along the back and was well in contention turning for home. Tracking the leaders during the first half of the straight, he challenged for the lead on the long run between the final two flights and was a couple of lengths to the good at the last. Though he rather reached at the hurdle, he was over very swiftly and it was much the better jump of the leading pair and though his advantage was not extended on the short run-in, he was always comfortably holding his rival. This performance represented a new career best to the tune of a good ten pounds and it marks Adagio out as a leading juvenile hurdler. It would not match Monmiral's performance at Doncaster and unless Duffle Coat has stagnated since winning at Cheltenham in November, it does not indicate that a reversal of form is an obvious potentiality. Furthermore, while Monmiral is likely to bypass Cheltenham, the likes of French Aseel, Youmdor and Teahupoo have already proven themselves in the heavy ground which would galvanize Adagio's chances. Notwithstanding, while he is unlikely to prove as effective in the Spring ground, he has fully earned a place in the Triumph hurdle and should the ground have some give, he will not be a pushover. 137

Nassalam had been burdened with a reputation of considerable substance despite doing little to warrant same. His debut second in a newcomers race at Clairefontaine in late June was his strongest piece of form to date, and all that was learned from his two Fontwell outings is that he can outrun a tree, and is not the most efficient hurdler. Nevertheless, he was the shortest priced runner in this line-up for the Triumph hurdle, and was sent off even money favourite here. Initially tucked in third or fourth place, he soon led the pursuit of the tearaway leader. As the long time leader was caught on entering the straight, he made light work of his rival for the lead and would jump the penultimate flight with a length's advantage. He was unable to match Adagio's pace on the run to the last, but the pair pulled twenty lengths clear of the remainder. Nassalam was more liable to jump big and left handed at Fontwell and although his inclination to dive left was less pronounced here, he maintained his habit of hopping over his hurdles. While he is unlikely to make many blunders, it is not a style that is conducive to the swift jumping necessary to thrive at the top level in this division. Given his size, he may eventually find more success over fences, although as he is fairly precociously bred, his window of opportunity may be a short one. This was still a high quality performance and there is scope for further improvement. However, there are likely to be one or two too strong for him in the very best races and a switch to a sounder surface is unlikely to boost his performances. 135

Houx Gris fetched €200,000 at the Arqana Deauville Autumn Sale following a four race career in France with Sylvain Dehez. A winner on his racecourse debut in an AQPS maiden, he was second in the same sphere before finishing twenty-one lengths third on his hurdling debut at Auteuil in late September. The following month, he prevailed by a neck on his return to the venue, finishing nine lengths ahead of a horse who subsequently third in a Listed contest. Two of Paul Nicholls' three previous runners in this contest had won, and the Ditcheat trainer also used this event to introduce French recruits Tatabeb, Sang Bleu and Caid Du Berlais. However, Houx Gris was not strongly fancied ahead of his British debut, drifting from 11/4 in the morning to 13/2 at flagfall. Racing prominently amongst the peleton, he was untidy at the first and not a model of perfect fluency at the next three. Nevertheless, he generally jumped adequately enough and jumped three out with a share of the lead. He appeared to be travelling well enough approaching the penultimate jump, however, he steadied on the approach and barely lifted his legs as he flattened the hurdle and lost considerable momentum. From thereon, he faded tamely and it is likely that he wanted for fitness. It was a respectably performance nevertheless and he should come on for the experience, although he has already met defeat three times in his short career and is unlikely to threaten for top honours in the division. 115

Elham Valley was seemingly exposed after a nine race flat career where his latest win came in a seller, and his two outings that followed saw him well held in handicaps. Nonetheless, he validated strong market support when making a successful hurdling debut at Sandown ahead of a subsequent winner. His jumping was not especially fluent there and he also made a series of errors on this occasion as he was big over the first, got in close to the second and fifth, flattened the fourth and stumbled badly at three out. He was also quite keen in the early stages and while he was close enough going into the straight, the aforementioned error put paid to any remaining chance. Though his Sandown performance marked a career best, this effort closer resembles his flat ability and his new rating of 125 is a tough one to justify. 110

Yggdrasil was the most lightly raced runner in the field having finished third behind Elham Valley on his sole outing to date. It was not a debut without promise as his jumping improved during the contest and his faltering during the closing stages was down to his inexperience. Furthermore, he was the first preference of the stable's two original entries with the other falling when holding every chance against Heross Du Seuil at Kempton. However, he was steady and/or untidy at most of his flights and was in trouble when the tempo increased towards the end of the back straight. Nevertheless, he ran the final two furlongs quicker than anything outside of the front pair which indicates that while he can improve with experience, he will likely be suited by a longer trip. 108

Mr Shady had run eighteen times on the flat, picking up a Lingfield handicap last January, before switching his attentions to hurdles in November at Ludlow. There he was a creditable nineteen length fourth and he posted a new career best when last seen at Wetherby where he was second of thirteen in a maiden contest. His good jumping was instrumental in that performance, but it still left him with something to find in this company and his being keen and making a couple of errors did not help his cause. He was not disgraced in finishing just over thirty lengths behind the winner and his mark of 117 is workable, particularly if returned to a sounder surface. 105

Pyramid Place failed to score in four outings for John Gosden, but he made a promising start to his hurdling career when a close second at Lingfield and did not have to improve to comfortably take a weak Bangor contest when last seen two months prior. However, he was not able to get away with being as keen as he was in this company and a few slow jumps early on did not allow him the opportunity to leave the rear. Nevertheless, while predictably outclassed, he ran no worse than his official mark of 104 which is reasonably generous based on his Bangor effort. If he learns to settle better then he should be able to find more success at his level. 105

Bannister won a weak Southwell hurdle in early September before twice racing in France without disgracing himself. However, he went off far too quickly for his own good here, was already tired at the fifth, and had nothing left when headed before three out. Apart from getting too close to the second, he jumped respectably and has the class to be competitive in reasonable company. However, it is imperative that he learns to settle. 0

[Kotkijet]

Sweet Will 12/1/2021 Fairyhouse 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (95)
Sweet Will failed to get competitive in four outings in maiden company, and though his jumping has improved recently, he had yet to run to within half a stone of 95 and this four furlong step up in trip did not suggest that a better effort was imminent. Though the yard had been out of form, he quietly supported before the off. Tucked in just behind the leader, he jumped well throughout apart from being slightly untidy at the second. However, he was beginning to get pushed along four furlongs out and was losing his position turning for home whereafter he was allowed to come home in his own time once the race had passed him. He has since been dropped a pound but that is unlikely to aid his cause. 73

ASCOT PREVIEW
The Aurelius Hurdle, named after the St Leger winner who would go on to win a steeplechase at Ascot's newly established National Hunt circuit, was first held in 1968 where Banquo would reach the frame in both this and the Triumph. Paddy's Return won both races during the nineties and the contest was discontinued with something of a bang in 2003 as it was taken by Tamarinbleu who would win the Clarance House Chase four seasons later. Incidentally, it was on the 2008 card that this juvenile contest was established. One of two juveniles held at Ascot, the other being the handicap towards the end of the season, it has since produced a Triumph winner in Zaynar, an almost Triumph winner in Goshen, Triumph placed Top Notch and Grandouet, along with future Ascot Chase winner Balder Succes. Its most notable winner came in the first renewal won by Binocular, who is the last hurdling debutant to win this contest. This year's edition features only moderate hurdling form, but a few of the newcomers have the potential to be useful types so this particular trend may well be bucked tomorrow. A galloping track with decent drainage, Ascot still has below average winning DIs, although this may largely be due to class and the clear round rate of 98% is one of the highest in the country. With all ten odds-on favourites since 2008/09 winning and a median SP of 2/1, Ascot is not a hotbed of large surprises in the division. The going is currently soft, heavy around Swinley Bottom, and there is no more than light rain forecast in the interim.

Blue Slate grg Barry Brennan f8-0-1 (47) 58 j3-1-0 (110) 105 100
Alhebayeb (Halling){7-f}(1.15) 3/2 Eddiemaurice 1st Handicap Hurdle (122), Ascot 2016
One of two with hurdling experience in the field, Blue Slate also has winning form, courtesy of a success in a Leicester maiden where solid jumping saw him land a 50/1 upset. However, that contest looked decidedly moderate beforehand and the subsequent form has not raised its esteem. Furthermore, Blue Slate's outings prior to his win saw him well beaten in selling company, and he jumped poorly when completely outclassed at Cheltenham last time. There is a level for Blue Slate, but it is leagues below this contest.

Casa Loupi chg Gary Moore f10-1-3 (69) 75
Casamento (Auction House){14}(2.20) 3/1 Capitalist 5th Juvenile Claiming Hurdle, Catterick 1999
Prior to 2019, Gary Moore had seven runners in this contest without any reaching a place. Beat The Judge would finish third in 2019, and last season's renewal was taken very cosily by Goshen. The master of Cisswood Stabes saddles two here, the first being his 69 rated Casa Loupi. Though already a consistent type, he found improvement for the application of cheekpieces and his last four runs have resulted in a win and three seconds - two of those by a neck or less. His flat success came on his penultimate outing in a twelve furlong Kempton handicap off 65 and the runner-up, who was a shade unlucky, has won his next two starts. Casa Loupi was last seen nineteen days ago at Lingfield where he was very wide around the final bend and failed by a neck to reach the winner. His trainer entitles him to due respect, although there is less encouragement on breeding as while Casamento has a fair record in the division, his overall strike rate is just 8.26% and stronger stallions are represented in this line-up. There is little cause for optimism on the damline as the closest relative was very moderate, and Auction House's influence in the sphere is negligible. The cheekpieces are left off for his hurdling debut.

Hooroo bg Olly Murphy f14-1-3 (63) 70
Hallowed Crown (Dubawi){1-t}(1.18) 2/2 Lando Blue 2nd Handicap Hurdle (Listed,123), Clairefontaine 2016
Olly Murphy registered his first Grade 1 success as a trainer last season, and his stable has been in good form recently. However, while he has saddled winners in the division, his overall strike rate is just 6%. Tomorrow sees him introduce Hooroo who was a 10,000 guineas purchase from Karl Burke at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. A winner of a Nottingham nursery at the seventh time of asking, Hooroo broadly ran to the same level in seven outings during 2020 while showing some tenacity from the front without winning. He is likely to handle the trip and ground, and Sean Bowen has won two from seven for the in-form trainer. Hallowed Crown has had a winner from his first crop in Noel Meade's Jeff Kidder, and there are also some minor French performers on the damline. However, Hooroo will need to improve against a few of these and is probably exposed after fourteen outings.

Punctuation bg Charlie Longsdon f8-1-3 (83) 91
Dansili (Galileo){12-c}(0.86) 3/1 King Carew 2nd Handicap Chase (Listed,120), Cork 2003
Andrew Balding had seventeen three-year-olds offered at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, with his top lot going to Saudi Arabia for 185,000 guineas. The next best seller was Punctuation whose bid of 110,000 guineas diverted him from the desert to near Chipping Norton. Former residents of Kingsclere win their fair share of juvenile hurdles, although little over a quarter will improve for the switch between codes. Balding has been responsible for seven juveniles who fetched more than 100,000 guineas and while three were winners, only Flaxen Flare could be described as pattern class. Charlie Longsdon has a respectable winners to runners rate of 29.03%, and Punctuation is set be his most expensive public purchase by some margin, with the next priciest being dual winner Paintball at 70,000 guineas in 2010. Punctuation, as a racehorse rather than a commodity, made his debut last January when a head second to To Nathaniel in a twelve furlong novice stakes at Kempton. The following month, he took a course and distance maiden by eleven lengths from a fairly moderate field. He was stepped up to pattern company for his next two starts at Newmarket and Ascot, but was well beaten on each occasion. The remainder of his four runs came in fourteen furlong, class two handicaps at Haydock, Sandown and twice at York, during which time his mark dropped from 89 to 83. Though he had a questionable headcarriage when last seen in October, he has generally looked quite straightforward although there may be a preference for firmer ground. Dansili has a strong 35.14% winners to runners rate in the division, and Galileo is a stronger damsire than sire. The dam is a half-sister to a pair of minor jumps winners as well as successful national hunt sire Kalanisi. Along with this entry, Punctuation was also declared for the Chatteris Fen at Huntingdon, and a Catterick juvenile, both of which would be abandoned. Quite whether this is indicative of the stable's expectations, or its desire to get a run into him is a matter of speculation, but his flat rating is well above average for a recruit into the division. Brian Hughes is an interesting booking, although the stable is not in the strongest form at the moment and only one of its twenty-nine juvenile hurdlers has won first time out.

Salamanca School bg Warren Greatrex f7-1-3 (65) 76
Rock Of Gibraltar (Pennekamp){9-e}(1.91) 1/1 Sofia's Rock 3rd Listed Hurdle, Kempton 2019
Habitual front-runner Salamanca School ran seven times on the flat for Mark Johnston, winning a seller as a two-year-old, and was last seen finishing thirteen lengths behind Elham Valley when runner-up in another seller at Goodwood at the end of August. Between those outings, he competed in three handicaps, but was well beaten on each occasion and his mark dropped from 79 to 65 during 2020. Joining Warren Greatrex for ?12,500 at the Goffs September sale, he is with a yard that boasts a decent winners to runners ratio of 28%, and a healthy improvement rate of 52.63%. Rock Of Gibraltar gets his fair share of winners but his improvement rate of 32.61% is the lowest in the field and both sire and trainer have below par overall strike rates. Salamanca School is a full brother to the useful Sofia's Rock, and Danny Whizzbang also appears on the damline at 2/3. Nevertheless, while there are positive in the profile and the ground should not be a problem, the regressive flat form and the wind operation prior to his sale at Goffs are not particularly encouraging.

Stepney Causeway bg Dan Skelton f4-1-1 (85) 89
New Approach (Noverre){7-a}(0.67) 2/1 Park's Prodigy 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Sedgefield 2007
A winner of a Chelmsford novices stakes on the second of two outings as a two-year-old, Stepney Causeway ran to a career best on the latest of two three-year-old outings when a neck second in a seven furlong handicap at Leicester in July. The front two were nearly three lengths clear of the remainder, and the winner has developed into a good handicapper who ran in a listed contest at Meydan on Thursday. However, Stepney Causeway did not appear to commit himself to the battle and his Chelmsford win over a mile was the furthest he raced during four runs for Michael Bell. Those formerly trained by Michael Bell have a decent 30.51% winners to runners rate in juvenile hurdles, and Dan Skelton accounts for three of those winners including the highly talented Allmankind who runs in the same colours. While Stepney Causeway has yet to have his stamina tested, New Approach has a fine winners to runners rate of 33.33% and the damline features winning jumpers Tamarillo Grove (2/2) and Dont Take Me Alive (2/2) along with Grade 1 winners Contraband (3/2) and Royal Gait (4/2). The yard has good figures across the board in the division as well as a first time out strike rate of 36.84% with flat recruits rated 70 and above.

Tenfold bg Gary Moore f6-0-2 (74) 80
Born To Sea (Montjeu){13-c}(0.82) 3/1 Darasim 2nd Novices' Hurdle, Cheltenham 2005
Gary Moore's second runner is rated five pounds superior to his stablemate, and has a more compelling sire for the discipline. Tenfold's best effort on the flat came when second of three in a fourteen furlong Yarmouth handicap back in June where he split a pair of subsequent winners. However, he pulled too hard for his own good when a beaten favourite next time at Bath before weakening tamely on soft ground at Windsor on his final start for Martyn Meade. Subsequently sold for ?21,000 at the Goffs UK Silver Yearling Sale in October, he finished midfield in a Lingfield novice stakes last month where he once again failed to settle. The Born To Sea, Montjeu cross is a positive one on paper, and the damline is not short on minor winners. However, Tenfold will likely prefer a sounder surface and his tendency to pull exacerbates the difficult task facing him in this company.

Tritonic chg Alan King 9-2-3 (99) 106
Sea The Moon (Selkirk){4-r}(1.13) 4/3 Le Breuil 1st National Hunt Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2019
Alan King has won this contest with his last three runners. Balder Succes scored in 2012, Gibralfaro in 2016, and Nayati two years later. His representative this season is the much touted Tritonic who will be his trainer's highest rated flat recruit since Mount Helicon in 2008. Alan King is also the strongest trainer represented in this field and his statistics, winners to runners 50.65%, RPR 108 and above 58.44%, improvement rate of 57.94% and overall strike rate of 23.65% are all of a high standard. Furthermore, his already fine first time out strike rate of 29.11% increases to 48.15% with flat recruits rated 80 and above. After finishing fifth in the Zetland Stakes, Tritonic began his three-year-old campaign off a mark of 95 which he carried to second place on his seasonal reappearance at Royal Ascot on soft ground. Though he failed to win in four subsequent outings, he finished second in a listed race at Hamilton, was not disgraced in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer, was runner-up in a Yarmouth handicap off 99, and just under six lengths fourth of seventeen in the Old Rowley Cup off the same mark. Neither of Sea The Moon's juveniles this term have found much success, but his first crop boasted three winners including the talented Allmankind. The damline, which is predominantly American based, is rather threadbare of jumpers prior to Le Breuil at 4/3, and Selkirk's broodmares have a moderate record in the sphere. Though he has been ever present in the Triumph lists since the summer, Tritonic's participation in the sphere was contingent on a gelding operation and a successful round of schooling. Both of these prophesies have been fulfilled and with his trainer, flat quality, and proven ability on soft ground, he makes for an intriguing recruit to the game.

Vulcan bg Dr Richard Newland f11-2-3 (87) 93
Free Eagle (Pivotal){6-e}(1.22) 0.5 Quids In 1st Maiden Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2017
Though he failed to win on his first eight outings, Vulcan was a largely progressive type and after going down by a neck in a mile handicap at Sandown, he broke his maiden off 73 in a soft ground mile contest at Haydock in mid September. Later that month, he doubled his tally at the same venue when defying top weight in an apprentice handicap by seven lengths. While he had shown a tendency to hang under pressure, predominantly to his right, he still appears to be genuine in a battle. His final start for Harry Dunlop came when a staying on fourth at Nottingham, after which he was sold for 170,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, the highest price paid in the UK for a juvenile this season. Former inmates of Harry Dunlop's have a solid 29.63% winners to runners rate, and Richard Newland's already strong record has been boosted this term with wins from Orchestral Rain and recent Kempton scorer Sage Advice. However, the aforementioned was the last winner for the yard who has had twelve subsequent runners without success. Free Eagle is having his first crop of juveniles and has made a very respectable start with two winners from seven, and as well as being a half-brother to winning juvenile Quids In, Vulcan is also distantly related to Elusive Dream at 4/2. While his tendency to hang is of some concern, and his trainer could be in better form, Vulcan remains a compelling recruit and is capable of giving Tritonic something to think about.

Sarceaux grf Alexandra Dunn f3-0-0 FrF 30.5 (67.1) 62 j1-0-0 (-) 85 92
Rajsaman (Elusive City){16-g}(0.67) 0.5 Saint Contest 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2016
The other runner with jumps experience in the field, Sarceaux made her hurdling debut at Kempton almost four weeks ago. A winner of the second of three starts on the flat in France, she was sent off completely unfancied at 150/1. Setting off fairly prominently, she was untidy at the first two and steadied into the fifth and sixth before losing her position on the turn for home. Though it was not a debut outing without promise, she may have a preference for firmer ground and nothing she has achieved thus far suggests that she is capable of making an impact at this level.

Strong prospects
1. Tritonic
Reasonable prospects
2. Vulcan
3. Stepney Causeway
Feasible prospects
4. Punctuation
Moderate prospects
5. Hooroo
6. Casa Loupi
7. Tenfold
8. Salamanca School
Negligible prospects
9. Blue Slate
10. Sarceaux

As informative as ever Kotkijet let’s hope the french aseel form gets franked. Do you have this as your most likely winner atm?

Cheers DCP

I haven't had a proper look at Teahupoo's races as of yet but unless I've missed something then I would have Zanahiyr as the classiest seen to date. There is still the ponderable as to whether he handles Cheltenham but if he does, he has a favourite's chance. French Aseel I like but I want to see him confirm his debut effort first. As mentioned elsewhere, I think Duffle Coat is being seriously overlooked and though we have not seen him in a while, Quilixios appears to have been forgotten. If both of these are sound and well, I would have each of them ahead of French Aseel and Adagio at this stage.

[Kotkijet]

Forgot the Triumph Odds...

Stepney Causeway 33/1
Tritonic 33/1
Punctuation 50/1
Vulcan 66/1

[Faugheen_Machine]

Great write up Kotkijet

Do you know if they are aiming Quilixios and Duffle Coat at the DRF?

[Istabraq]

Kotkijet great reading once again, never gets boring...

[Kotkijet]

The lodger agreement has been signed which means I have one less excuse for any slackness on my part. Nevertheless, the whole "getting into a routine" still carries some validity so I don't feel too guilty about only posting a handful of due reviews at the time being. It turns out I missed a couple from last year which is quite handy as one of them (To Fly Free) is due to race tomorrow. If Wetherby's meeting goes ahead tomorrow then I might post a table with some arbitrary comments. Otherwise, looking forward to the action at Doncaster and Cheltenham (along with the return of Riviere d'Etel at Navan on Friday) will take priority ahead of eating into the forty-seven remaining performance reviews.

To Fly Free 10/11/2020 Hereford 2m Handicap Hurdle (104)
To Fly Free won at the fifth time of asking over hurdles when taking a Fakenham mares' race a fortnight earlier. While the second and third since did little for the form, there were two subsequent winners in behind who underperformed on the day, most notably dual listed winner Talking About You. The complexion and conditions of Fakenham's contest suited her perfectly and the form did not warrant her revised mark of 104. Nevertheless, she was sent off favourite for this handicap and while the ground was softer than at Fakenham, the course configuration was not against her. Tucked in behind the leaders, she got in close to the second and was untidy at the third. She was neat at the next but found herself getting scrubbed along shortly afterwards and was hard ridden by the time she reached the penultimate flight. While she weakened tamely from there, she was still able to fend off the challenge for fourth place. This was the faster of the two divisions and the front two each won since so she was far from disgraced here. Her mark has been left as it is which is still rather stiff, but she may be able to run close, particularly on a sounder surface. 99

Eventful 20/12/2020 Fakenham 2m Mares' Maiden Hurdle
Eventful was bought out of a claimer for ?11,000 ahead of her hurdles debut over this course and distance the previous month. Though she was unable to make any impression on the race, she jumped well for the most part. Nevertheless, this contest looked above her level beforehand and she was accordingly sent off at 40/1. Held up in the rear of the field, she was slightly careful over the first two, but jumped adequately until the sixth whereafter she was ridden along. The race had left her by the time she flattened two out and she came home in her own time from there. This performance broadly matched her debut effort, and would leave her some way off being competitive in ordinary company. 80

Perry Owens 13/01/2021 Naas 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (114)
Last seen two months earlier in a Punchestown winners contest behind Druid's Altar, Perry Owens shaped as though this step up in trip could be suitable and his rating of 114 was very fair. Despite the absence, he started just half a point behind the favourite and was tracking the leaders from the outset. However, his jumping was not as fluent as previously as he was slightly slow into the first, hopped over the second and seventh, and put in some very tired jumps in the straight. He was already being shaken up with five furlongs to go and weakened gradually in the closing stages before being beaten an over thirty-six length twelfth of fourteen finishers. They did not go a breakneck gallop and as he was struggling some way from home, his underperformance is not automatically due to a lack of stamina. Dropped to 113, he is on a kind enough mark if this run can be forgiven. 92

Saga Malta 13/01/2021 Naas 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (102)
Racing exclusively over hurdles, Saga Malta had not achieved a great deal during her first four outings and while her mark of 90 is possibly feasible on her Limerick effort, her being twelve pounds out of the handicap did her no favours here. Racing in the rear, she was untidy at several flights and found herself detached before leaving the back. 78

Eventful 13/01/2021 Plumpton 1m7f195yds Maiden Hurdle (Div1)
Placed five times on the flat and rated as high as 75 at one point, Eventful has yet to come close to that level in two hurdles outings prior to this contest. With three reasonable types representing top yards here, she would have been out of depth at the best of times and this was reflected in her starting price of 66/1. Nevertheless, apart from wandering on the approach to the second and third here, she jumped well if a little tight at times. Held up in the rear, she made some headway down the back before being readily outpaced by the leading trio approaching the final turn. The cause was essentially a lost one from there and the front three finished upwards of twenty-four lengths ahead. Though predictably outclassed, she was clear of the rest and posted her best hurdles performance to date in what was the stronger of the two divisions. Her rating of 98 is far from generous on jumps form, but she can jump well and she could be seen to better effect on a sounder surface. 85

African Sun 13/01/2021 Plumpton 1m7f195yds Maiden Hurdle (Div1)
African Sun achieved very little on the flat for Ed Dunlop and was pulled up on his hurdling debut at Leicester where he jumped poorly. Very keen early on, he put in another poor round of jumping and began to weaken down the back before finishing well beaten. This was not far off his best flat efforts, but it is still a very low standard. 77

Eagle's First 13/01/2021 Plumpton 1m7f195yds Maiden Hurdle (Div2)
Eagle's First was not unfancied on her racecourse bow in a Warwick bumper where she had the services of Richard Johnson. However, she would only beat two home there and her hurdling debut at Fontwell saw her jump poorly and finish completely tailed off. Starting at 150/1 here, she raced fairly prominently in the early stages before settling into midfield. Though big over the first two, she got into a decent rhythm and jumped acceptably well before she was untidy at three out. By that stage, she was already well beaten but she managed to get the better for Rains Of Castamere for a twenty-four length sixth placed finish. This was the best of her three outings to date, but she needs to step up considerably before she is competitive in ordinary company. 81

Rains Of Castamere 13/01/2021 Plumpton 1m7f195yds Maiden Hurdle (Div2)
Coming into this race with a rating of 71 on the back of two handicap wins over a mile, Rains Of Castamere was well fancied in the betting. While 8/1 was available in the morning, he was sent off third in the betting at 11/4. However, he looked anything but a natural hurdler as he made errors at most of the hurdles, typically by skewing badly or showing hesitancy. His rider briefly lost his iron at the third and Rains Of Castamere was struggling from some way out. Though he has the ability to be competitive in this division, even if his jumping improves, his stamina would still not be assured 86

Num Num 13/01/2021 Plumpton 1m7f195yds Maiden Hurdle (Div2)
Though blessed with an amusing name, Num Num does not appear to have been blessed with any discernible racing aptitude. Six races on the flat saw her beat just one of sixty rivals home without even registering a racing post rating. She was steady and close into the first and fourth before pecking on landing at the fifth, but otherwise, her hurdling could have been much worse. Furthermore, she was only really detached towards the end of the back stretch whereafter she was pulled up. Though her only hope of being competitive is the reintroduction of banded racing, this was not the worst performance seen this season. 0

Sure I'm Your Man 14/01/2021 Bangor 2m?f Handicap Hurdle (95)
Though no better than a fair maiden on the flat for Roger Charlton, Sure I'm Your Man was not disgraced on his hurdling debut over this course and distance in November. That form entitled him to a chance on a mark of 95, however, he bled on his next outing at Leicester and was poor at Market Rasen several days later. The month's break may have helped him, although he did have questions to answer and he was a drifter in the market beforehand. Held up in the rear, he got in close to the third where he trailed his rear legs, and tripped over the next in a calamitous fashion. Though he remained upright and was not immediately detached, he would not make any ground on his rivals and was eventually pulled up before the last. His amended rating of 90 is fair on his best form, but he could not be trusted to run to that mark at this juncture. 0

FAIRYHOUSE 16th January
Preview review
Had Youmdor stayed up then while probably not the 1.03 matched in running, there was a strong chance that the first two would have matched the prospects lists. Though upwards of fifteen lengths behind the winner, Autumn Evening and Druid's Altar outran their moderate prospects. Nevertheless, this was more a reflection of their form not matching the front two while lacking some of the scope possessed by the reasonable and feasible prospects. Josh d'Id was somewhat disappointing although confidence was tempered by his yard's moderate form and he was weak in the market in any case. Neither Merry Poppins nor Awkwafina were disgraced and Alexei Vronsky was the last to finish.

Race review
Though a fairly recent addition to the calendar, this contest has already produced several useful types. This year's renewal looked like the strongest to date beforehand, and despite the rather anticlimactic departure of the favourite at the last, it looked like a good quality affair. The pace was solid and with the exception of the Grade A handicap, the winning time fastest on the card by seconds per furlong against standard. It was also 3.66 seconds faster than the course average on the ground. Hurdling quality was also of a useful standard, most of the runners settled nicely, and apart from Josh d'Id, a drifter representing an out-of-form yard, every participant appears to have ran to form. The winner and the faller look like top class sorts for the discipline and the form looks solid.

Teahupoo was the sole representative for a yard which won two of the three previous editions of this race with a scattergun approach. Making his debut for Gordon Elliott, he came into this race having won his sole start in France, the Prix Emilius. A contest for hurdling debutants, it has been the launchpad for the likes of Balder Succes, Rolling Star and Solo, along with domestic stars Milord Thomas and Crystal Beach. Teahupoo's division of this year's renewal was the quicker of the two, and was won in a determined fashion from a pair of subsequent winners including Good Ball of Paul Nicholls. Good hurdling was a prominent feature of his Auteuil success, and he put in another decent round here with his only errors being slightly steady and close at the fifth, and somewhat untidy over the last after his rival had fallen. Tucked in behind the leaders, he moved into a narrow lead at the distance, although Youmdor was travelling the stronger of the pair. Nevertheless, he was responding for pressure before being left a long way clear at the last. Though Youmdor looked the likelier winner at the time, the contest was not so concluded as the odds of 1.03 in-running suggest. On the evidence of his two runs, he is a good jumper with decent speed and attitude along with a capacity to run on testing ground. Strictly on form, this is already one of the leading performances posted in Ireland thus far. Given that Teahupoo was returning from a three month absence, it is likely that he can improve further. Gordon Elliott already has Zanahiyr, Quilixios, Duffle Coat and Riviere d'Etel featuring prominently in the Triumph Markets and all hold entries in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Nevertheless, while Youmdor likely had his measure on the day, there is no reason why Teahupoo should be viewed as the lesser of this quintet and he looks an intriguing prospect for the remainder of the season. 141

Druid's Altar had shown fairly useful form on the flat and has debut win at Punchestown and third last time at Leopardstown were of a similar level. He went off too quickly when soundly beaten at this venue between those outings, but has subsequently been more sensible. Disputing the lead through much of the contest, he jumped well apart from a steady jump at the first. He was slightly outpaced on the turn for home and found himself squeezed against the rails and looked to be faltering when pecking on landing at the penultimate flight. Nevertheless, though he was readily left behind by the two leaders, he was able to stay on again to reclaim second towards the finish. Fairyhouse is likely too sharp a venue for him, but he is a honest and consistent type who is growing mentally with every run. His rating of 122 seems fair and could be exploitable over a stiffer test. 126

Autumn Evening was a fair maiden on the flat prior to making a winning hurdles debut at Cork. He suffered some trouble in running when stepped up in class next time, but while he was beaten on merit, he confirmed himself as an above average sort. His jumping on each outing had followed a pattern of being untidy early on, settling well in the mid section of the race before making a mistake towards the end. Here, he was slightly baulked on landing at the first and got in close to the second, but he put in his best round to date overall and readjusted himself nicely at the sixth when meeting it on an awkward stride. Disputing the lead for much of the contest, he briefly held a narrow advantage turning for home before getting outclassed by his superior rivals and losing second in the closing stage. Though somewhat shy of the best in the division, he is emerging as another consistent and useful sort and his rating of 122 could be fairly generous. 126

Awkwafina fetched just €8,500 at the Goffs Autumn Online Sale and brought a flat rating of just 64 to her hurdling debut at Limerick on Boxing Day. Nevertheless, despite being sent off at 100/1, she jumped fluently on the way to springing an upset. This represented a step up in class and while the oddsmakers were slightly more cautious here, she still had plenty on her plate. Held up in the rear, she put in another decent round of jumping, but was unable to make any impact on the contest and would only begin to pass horses on the straight before finishing eleven lengths behind the third. While her limitations were predictably exposed, she did not quite match her Limerick effort and this closer resembles the strongest of her flat form. Given to inconsistency on the flat, her rating of 113 would only be a fair one if she performs to her best. 108

Josh d'Id came into this contest with an interesting profile, being the winner of his sole start in France, and the sole JP McManus entry in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. However, the stable's recent form has been lamentable and Josh d'Id drifted from 6/1 in the morning, to 16/1 at the off. Settling towards the rear of midfield, the only qualm one could have with his jumping is that he would occasionally get steady and tight into his hurdles. He was unable to make much progress through the field however and finished the race somethat tired. While this was a disappointing debut at face value, the high expectations for Josh d'Id are unlikely to be met first time while the yard is out of form and it would be reasonable to forgive this outing for the time being. 112

Merry Poppins was coming back after 152 days off the track following a successful racecourse debut at Tipperary in mid August. She was the subject of support on that occasion and justified same with a likable display of aptitude and determination. A change of ownership occurred in the interim did not result in a change in yards, and the services of Rachael Blackmore were secured for her return. However, she was not strongly fancied in the market and would beat only one finisher home. Her absence saw her running fresh early on, but she was settled before too long and apart from a couple of tired leaps towards the end, put in a respectable round. She was far from disgraced and there is still opportunity for her to build on her debut success. 104

Alexei Vronsky bookended his 2020 campaign with wins on the flat and over hurdles, the latter coming on his third start over jumps in a below standard Punchestown maiden in November. Though far from a useless sort, he looked out of his depth in this company and the heavy ground was unlikely to be in his favour. His jumping reflected previous outings as he made only minor errors before unravelling in the closing stages due to fatigue. Nevertheless, while he was the last to finish, this was not far off his best hurdles performance and a return to a sounder surface can see him be more competitive. However, he may have to wait for a handicap mark as winners races are likely to be too deep as would be a 0-130 rated event. 104

Youmdor came into the contest with much the strongest reputation due to his most compelling hurdling debut at Gowran Park in November. While his jumping could seldom be described as neat or swift, it did improve as the race progressed and he demonstrated a serious engine by effortlessly putting sixteen lengths between himself and some reliable benchmarks. Despite returning after a near two-month break, he was backed as though defeat was out of the question and contracted from a shade of odds-on in the morning to 4/9 at flagfall. Tucked in behind the leaders, he was ridden with some restraint but was not unruly in the battle of the bit. His jumping was still characterised by some untidiness, but was much cleaner than on his debut and quite takingly neat at times. He cosily made up a few lengths in a matter of strides turning for home and after somewhat hopping over the penultimate flight, was cruising in a share of the lead on the approach to the last. However, while he went into it on a seemingly good stride, he put in one extra which left him with no time to lift his feet and took a tumbling fall as a result. Thankfully, the turf gave way after his fall rather than jarring him, and after rising to his feet, gallopped on much happier than his rider. There is little the rider could have done and the fall looks more a case of lapsed concentration than any form of incompetence. Naturally, while his jumping is still improving, it would be more encouraging to see him post a more fluent round before the end of the season. Nevertheless, there is no questioning his raw talent and with a stronger aptitude, he could be a threat to the very best in the division. 142

[Kotkijet]

Great write up Kotkijet

Do you know if they are aiming Quilixios and Duffle Coat at the DRF?

You would have to imagine that's the way they want to go. I remember Elliott saying he didn't mind missing Fairyhouse in December with Quilixios as he already had the experience under his belt. He bypassed Leopardstown in favour of Chepstow before the cancellation and subsequent travel issues. Then he was entered at Fairyhouse for the winners race before running Teahupoo instead. Other than the Spring Juvenile, there's the Winning Fair which the yard used with outsiders Dinaria Des Obeaux and Authorizo. But that's much nearer the Triumph so preference for the better hopes would be the Spring Juvenile one would imagine.

If he decides to send Quilixios there without a run then that's a 139 day absence to overcome. Barizan finished second in 2010 after a 125 day break, but all others running for the first time that year have all finished unplaced.

[Kotkijet]

Doncaster's Listed filles' race enters its third year tomorrow, and it looks the strongest to date. This would not be difficult as the highest seasonal RPR achieved to this date is the 120 of Giving Glances, a mark already exceeded by Talking About You. Her Indoors, Megan and course winner Progressive also have the potential to reach such levels. While Hiconic, Fiveandtwenty and Table Mountain are absent from this line-up, it is still as strong a contest assembled from British trained fillies. A mostly flat galloping track, Doncaster's winning DIs of 1.19 median and 1.39 mean are just higher than average, while the clear round rate of 96.60% is fairer than standard. Furthermore, the 76.19% success rate of its odds on favourites among juveniles is also one of the highest in the country making the course a fairly straightforward one overall. Some showers are forecast overnight, but being a well draining circuit, it should not ease the ground much beyond the current description of soft.

Talking About You bf Sean Curran f6-0-1 (60) 60 j9-4-3 (135) 124 124
Sixties Icon (Mastercraftsman){9-h}(0.50) 3/1 Princess Caerani 2nd Mares' Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2014
Had it been suggested on the fifth of August last year that Talking About You would, at this point, be the third highest earning British trained juvenile, have two listed wins to her name, and hold an entry in the Triumph Hurdle, incredulity would be the most generous reaction. A moderately progressive maiden on the flat, she went into her Newton Abbot debut on the back of a second in a Windsor claimer, and appeared to excel herself to finish third despite behaving atrociously. Nevertheless, she improved to win on her third outing at Fontwell, and following a dip in form and a wind operation, built on a fair return at Fakenham to land a three timer at Ludlow, Aintree and Taunton. The latest two successes came in listed company among her own sex, the latter against some older mares. The form of that win perhaps should not be overstated as her jumping was not especially fluent, and her rivals likely underperformed. Notwithstanding, she holds Her Indoors and Megan on their Aintree meeting and on all known form, would not have to improve to win this despite the penalty. However, this is contingent on her less experienced rivals failing to build on their efforts and while her superiority at Aintree was quite emphatic, the lack of hurdles helped her cause on that occasion.

Breadcrumbs bbf Jennie Candlish b2-0-0 72 j1-0-0 (-) 69 74
Dabirsim (Dr Fong){22-a}(1.67) 1/0 Sister Agnes 1st Novices' Handicap Hurdle (83), Stratford 2008
Well beaten in two bumper runs, Breadcrumbs made her hurdling debut in a fillies' race over this course and distance last month. Sent off at 125/1, she jumped her first two hurdles in public adequately, but poor jumps at the last two (those in the straight were omitted) saw her get detached. She was able to pass beaten horses on the long run-in, but still has upwards of thirty lengths to find on Progressive and Gibertina and there is no reason why she would eat into that deficit.

Gilbertina bf Nick Kent f2-0-0 (-) 15 j2-0-2 (112) 100 105
Universal (Teofilo){11-g}(0.82) 0.5 Big Ego 2nd 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Gowran Park 2018
Though she achieved nothing in two starts on the flat, Gilbertina belied odds of 200/1 to finish just over eighteen lengths third to Megan on her hurdling debut at Leicester in November. She overcame novicey jumping in the early stages before settling into a decent rhythm, whereas the inverse was true on her next appearance at Doncaster the following month. Taking the initiative from flagfall, Gilbertina jumped the first two correctly but steadied and skewed over the third while stumbling after the fourth. She still held the lead turning for home and got first run over her rivals. Though caught and held by her superior rival, she finished twenty-two lengths clear of the remainder. An unexposed horse who confirmed and surpassed her Leicester performance, Gilbertina should remain competitive in ordinary company and has the capacity for further progression. However, such is the strength of her opposition here, she would need to improve by at least a stone to hold place prospects.

Her Indoors bf Alan King 6-1-2 (76) 80 j2-0-2 (122) 116 117
Raven's Pass (Zafonic){22-d}(2.60) 2/2 Next Round 1st Prix Predicateur (L,126), Auteuil 2014
Black type juvenile fillies' races had been touted for Her Indoors before she had even run on the flat in 2020, let alone registering her first success in a twelve furlong Lingfield handicap in September and developing into a fairly useful sort in that sphere. Her hurdling debut came in Aintree's listed race where she was sent off at three times her morning price of 6/1. She was not the fluent jumper as she needed encouragement into her hurdles and got in close to the second and fourth while landing steeply at the last. She was no match for the comfortable winner, but was able to out-speed Megan from the elbow. The diminished jumping test certainly worked in her favour and it is unlikely that she would have finished second with a full compliment of hurdles to jump. Her reappearance came later that month at Kempton where she deposed Nicky Henderson's Heross Du Seuil as favourite. However, this move was unlikely to be based on exceptional schooling reports as she was less than exemplary once again. After a big hop at the first, she steadied into and was close at the second, close again and the fourth and fifth, slow over the sixth, and steady and close over the penultimate flight. She used her flat speed to gain a place on the run-in at Aintree and did so once again here, gaining half-a-dozen lengths after the last to grab second towards the finish. Her Indoors patently has the ability to win a race and Alan King did win this race in 2019 with Giving Glances, but it is essential that her hurdling improves. Otherwise, she might struggle to maintain superiority with Megan, let alone reverse placings with Talking About You.

Megan chf Stuart Edmunds f6-1-1 Def (77kg) (74) (-) 90 j2-1-1 (120) 114 116
Lord Of England (King's Best){22-c}(0.82) 0.5 Mahe King, 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Italy 2018
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-ra...external/19022 (7th Listed)
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-ra...external/18819 (2nd Auction Race)
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-ra...external/17988 (1st Maiden)
Megan ran six times on the flat in Germany for Dominik Moser, winning once last June at Hannover over 1900 meters. Since then, she took in three races at pattern company and was last seen in early October when finishing last of seven, but just four and a quarter lengths behind Sunny Queen who subsequently took the Group One Grosser Preis Von Bayern. Megan was then sold at the BBAG October Sale for €22,000 with an official German GAG of 77kg. According to available charts, this roughly translates to a BHA rating of 74 although the RPR of 90 for her latest effort at Hanover looks more realistic. She was quietly fancied ahead of her hurdles debut at Leicester and announced herself with a compelling performance. Her early jumping was not brilliant as she steadied into the first, was slow at the second and got in close to the third. Nevertheless, she soon got into a good rhythm and travelled strongly in midfield. She made steady progress in the straight and cruised into the lead approaching the final flight. Clearing the last with a two length lead, she responded well to being shaken up and very quickly extended her advantage to nearly ten lengths at the line. The form looked patchy at the time and has not looked the strongest in retrospect, although third placed Gilbertina and fifth placed Volkovka have subsequently ran with credit, with the three reopposing on the same terms. She was sent off a solid 5/4 favourite at Aintree, and was competent over the five hurdles that were not omitted. However, she wanted for pace in the closing stages of that contest and there is every reason to assume that the lack of hurdles was detrimental to her finishing position given the aptitude of her main rivals. While she perhaps would not have had enough to beat the winner on the day, she emerges from that contest with the most encouraging profile. With the greater scope for improvement and a five pound pull at the weights, this Triumph entry goes into the contest with a solid chance for her shrewd and in-form trainer.

Progressive bf Nicky Henderson f4-1-0 (77) 83 j1-1-0 (-) 104 107
Nathaniel (Lomitas){20-c}(0.63) 3/2 Ellazaria 3rd Prix Bournosienne (G3), Auteuil 2006
Nicky Henderson is not averse to running juveniles at Doncaster, and outside of the Summit Hurdle, four of his runners since 2009 have been winners. The latest of these was Progressive who comes into this race the only runner undefeated over hurdles, courtesy of a win here last month. Successful in a Newcastle novice on the second of four starts for Roger Varian, she changed hands for 55,000 guineas at Tattersalls in the Autumn and was sent off 5/4 favourite for her hurdling debut. Forgivably fresh in the early stages of her first outing for over eighty days, Progressive was suitably settled in midfield after a couple of jumps. She hurdled well over the first and the third where she was ridden into the approach, whereas she slightly skewed over the second and got close into the fourth when steady on the approach. Her pursuit began five lengths in arrears of leader Gilbertina, who got first run at the top of the straight. But she was not hard pressed to steadily eat into that gap, and would head her rival just before the furlong pole before being ridden out for a comfortable two and a quarter length success. The bare form is not worth a great deal at this juncture, but she has shown she can travel and jump well while having scope for plenty of improvement for the experience. There is a gap to be bridged before she matches the likes of Talking About You, Her Indoors and Megan, but she is well worth a place in this company.

Volkovka bf Fergal O'Brien f5-1-2 FrF (81.4) 59 j4-1-1 (116) 102 105
Camelot (Anabaa){2-i}(0.71) 1/0 Drole de Dame 2nd 4YO Hurdle, Lyon Parilly 2011
While her final start for Simone Brogi came in a claimer, after which she was bought for €22,500, Volkovka's equivalent rating in the low 80s looks reasonable and being a daughter of Camelot and closely related to several winning jumpers in France , she had feasible prospects for the discipline. Her chances on her October jumps bow at Fakenham were compromised early on with some very poor jumping and finished by her hanging right. She reappeared at Leicester the following month and managed to complete the course, but not without some novicey jumping, and a pair of bad blunders at the sixth and the last which cost her a third place finish behind Megan. Her flat ability gave her a strong chance in a weak Market Rasen contest early last month and she was able to take advantage with her best round of jumping to date. Four weeks later, she ran a creditable second at Taunton despite drifting from morning favouritism to 11/4 at the off. Apart from minor imperfections at the fourth and seventh, she posted another decent display of hurdling. Initially held up towards the rear of midfield, she moved comfortably through a field that struggled to live with the pace. Reaching the front alongside the winner at the final flight, she plugged on gamely and went as low as 1.1 in-running, only to be denied by the winner's discovery of the rail. This marked a hurdles best to the tune of roughly half a stone, but it would still leave her with enough to find against several of these and she may be better suited by a step up in trip.

Strong prospects
1. Megan
Reasonable prospects
2. Progressive
3. Talking About You
Feasible prospects
4. Her Indoors
Moderate prospects
5. Volkovka
6. Gilbertina
Negligible prospects
7. Breadcrumbs

[Kotkijet]

Forgot to add festival prices for posterity.

Triumph Odds
Riviere d'Etel 33/1
Talking About You 33/1 (Aintree was main target according to latest comments)
Megan 66/1

Fred Winter
Riviere d'Etel 20/1
Her Indoors 25/1
Progressive 25/1
Megan 33/1
Talking About You 33/1

Mares' Novice
Riviere d'Etel 25/1
Volkovka 100/1

Also, Riviere d'Etel is set to run within the hour at Navan. Both the McManus and Fahey horses are drifting in the market which has seen the Elliott filly go odds-on. Can not speak confidently on the form of the others so will just repost the review of her Punchestown performance. Given that she won over eighteen furlongs on her debut, and that Punchestown is stiffer than Navan, the conditions should present no issues.

Riviere d'Etel finished second in the pouliches version of the Prix Finot on her sole hurdles run where the front pair finished a long way clear, and the winning time was a good one. She had been quite wayward on that occasion which was also reflected in her jumping. Some of those tendencies were still apparent here, but running in a first time hood, she was still keen without being alarmingly headstrong and her jumping was never much worse than untidy. Tracking the leaders in the opening stages, she took the lead on turning away from the stands and after being shaken up briefly before the home turn, quickly established a commanding lead. Despite an untidy jump at the last, she was not asked to pick up and passed the post an easy twelve length winner. Though this was not a polished performance, it was still one of considerable potential and by far the strongest seen by any filly this season. She clearly handles testing conditions very well and while it remains to be seen if she can be versatile on better ground, her pedigree suggests that it is not beyond the realm of possibility. Although she could develop into Triumph class, the yard already has an embarrassment of riches in the division and the current favourite is in the same ownership. As such, the mares' novice might be a more feasible target should Irish horses be allowed to compete at the festival.

[Kotkijet]

Naas's first juvenile of the season is scheduled to take place today and while stronger contests are generally held at other venues in Ireland, this race has not been without its useful sorts. Sayo made a winning Irish debut ahead of a third in the 2018 Triumph, Ivan Grozny won in 2014 before following up at Fairyhouse over Easter, and Newberry New finished second here in 2016 prior to taking the Winning Fair. Ebadiyan and Hisaabaat also took in this contest when it was held earlier in the month. This season's renewal features potentially useful newcomers for Gordon Elliott and Joseph O'Brien, while the best hurdling form is brought by Coltor and Zoffanien who renew their rivalry from Punchestown a fortnight ago. Naas is a galloping track with a stiff finish, and its average winning DIs of 1.05 median, 1.10 mean are among the lowest in the country, although its clear round rate of 98.33 is also the kindest in Ireland. The going is currently heavy but raceable, but the meeting is subject to a 7:30 inspection as rain is forecast overnight.

Triumph odds
Coltor 50/1

Fred Winter
Coltor 33/1

Anno Maximo bg David Harry Kelly f6-0-1 (62) 64 j1-0-0 (-) 36 35
Maxios (Singspiel){7-f}(0.76) 2/2 Aachen 2nd Veterans' Chase Final (146), Sandown 2016
Although he has the second lowest flat rating in this field, Anno Maximo's profile is not a hollow one. Placed on his penultimate flat start in a Bath handicap off 60, he left Michael Bell for 10,500 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale. Those who leave Fitzroy House have a solid winners to runners rate of 32.14% including Allmankind, Ruacana and Grumeti, all of whom were successful in Grade Ones. Maxios has well above-average figures across the board including a winners to runners rate of 43.75%, and the damline includes useful veteran chaser Aachen (2/2), and Atlaal (3/1) who was a decent juvenile ahead of winning the Lanzarote Hurdle the following campaign. However, only one of the trainer's ten runners in the sphere has been a winner, and Anno Maximo showed a tendency to hang on the flat. His best form came on firm, though he is bred to handle softer conditions, but he did not cover himself in glory on his hurdling debut at Punchestown where he made minor errors without ever escaping the rear.

Baltinglass Hill bg P J Rothwell f3-0-0 (75) 62 j3-0-0 (-) 60 67
Cable Bay (Iffraaj){16-a}(2.00) 3/0 Wheeler's Wonder 1st Juvenile Claiming Hurdle, Wincanton 1993
Though rated 75 on the flat, Baltinglass Hill did little to justify such a mark after three outings for Michael Grassick last summer. He ran an abysmal race on his hurdling debut in November, but did better last time at Punchestown by virtue of not being immediately detached. His jumping was also reasonable, but he still failed to leave the rear of the field and was ultimately tailed off.

Charlie Bassett bg Noel Meade f10-0-7 (80) 86 j3-0-0 (-) 100 116
Lawman (Xaar){13-b}(2.00) 0.5 Lambeau Field 3rd Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
Though without a win in thirteen races in either code, he has been running to a respectable level and was in the process of running a decent race on his hurdles bow at Down Royal before being brought down two out. Following three runs on the flat, he returned to hurdling at Fairyhouse in December where he jumped well after the first two flights and was still in touch three furlongs out. However, his questionable stamina told as he faded late on and finished a thirteen length fourth - eleven lengths behind Toughari. He was next seen at Leopardstown where apart from not getting particularly high at the fourth, he put in another acceptable round and was disputing second place just before the elbow. However, if anything can be held against Charlie Basset, then it would be a lack of stamina and it was this deficiency which saw him fade quickly in the closing stages, and finish nearly seventeen lengths behind Coltor. He is capable of better, but will need a considerably sharper test to be seen to better effect.

Coltor bg D K Weld f3-1-0 (86) 83 j2-0-1 (-) 111 118
Free Eagle (Red Ransom){14-c}(0.89) 2/2 Limini 1st Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
Making his racecourse debut at the end of August, Coltor twice placed fifth in Navan maidens before winning at Killarney in a soft ground, eleven furlong contest in early October. By Free Eagle and related to Limini, Call My Guest and Vintage Crop, he is bred to flourish in the sphere and was not unbacked ahead of his jumps bow in a traditionally strong Leaopardstown maiden hurdle during the festive meeting. He jumped well for the most part but shaped very much like a stayer when finishing a distant second to French Aseel. Backed into favouritism next time at Punchestown, he raced in much closer order, tracking the leaders throughout. However, he was unable to match the front pair turning for home and could only stay on the one pace up the straight. This was another commendable effort and apart from getting close to the second, posted a solid round of jumping. He is improving with each run, and although he is already looking as though a thorough test is essential to his future prospects, this is as close to one as he is likely to find in juvenile company. The trainer's few recent runners have not been running to scratch, but the sole Triumph entry in the field would still warrant respect.

Halifax bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f1-0-1 (-) - -
Saddler Maker (Apple Tree){u}(1.00) 2/1 Parrain 3rd Prix Cambaceres (G1), Auteuil 2006

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/halifax-1

Joseph O'Brien sent Konitho and Star Max to finish first and third in this race two years ago, and he is set to saddle two newcomers here. Halifax ran greener than the very soft Landivisau turf on his sole run to date when second in a thirteen furlong maiden in October. The form is nothing special as the winner is a 55 rated handicapper who was registering her solitary success in eight starts, and those in behind are similarly moderate. Nevertheless, there is a good amount of encouragement to be drawn from the pedigree. Saddler Maker has had a fine record with his few juveniles in Britain and Ireland and can count Apple's Jade, Apple's Shakira, Bouvreuil, Bristol de Mai and Dinaria des Obeaux among his progeny. The distaff side is also useful as the dam won at Fontainebleu as a juvenile, her uncle Parrain finished second in an Adonis and third in the Prix Cambaceres, and the likes of Blazer (3/2) Osana (4/2) and Notre Pere (4/3) also appear on the damline. Espoir d'Allen is the most notable of Anne-Sophie Pacault's five previous exports into the division and Joseph O'Brien is capable of preparing top class sorts. However, the yard has gone twenty runners without a jumps win and while Halifax has a compelling pedigree and will go in the ground, his bare form is not of a high standard at this juncture.

Hisdaywillcome blg Thomas Cooper Unraced
Dragon Pulse (Lucky Guest){1-e}(1.22) 0.5 Niven 1st 1m7f Handicap Chase (122), Catterick 2020
A half-brother to two winners, and more distantly related to the likes of For Me (3/4), Shaneshill (5/4) and Darlan (5/5), Hisdaywillcome is set to make his debut here having been an unused reserve at Punchestown a fortnight ago. Dragon Pulse has had two winning juveniles from fourteen while trainer Thomas Cooper has had one from nine. None of his charges won first time, but they do have a 100% completion rate.

Iberia bc J Halley f8-1-3 (101) 108 j1-0-0 (-) 87 88
Galileo (Danehill){8-f}(0.73) 3/2 Addicted 4th Juvenile Hurdle, Wincanton 2006
Iberia is the highest rated flat recruit seen to this point, having earned a triple digit rating when third in the Royal Lodge, and vindicating same in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial on his return in June. Though beating just two home in the Irish Derby and finishing last in a listed race at Leopardstown on his final flat outing, even those performances were stronger than anything achieved by the opposition. His joining John Halley instead of Joseph O'Brien dampened his prospects ahead of his hurdles bow at Leopardstown, and he drifted from 15/2 in the morning to 20/1 at the start. Racing in the rear, he was slow at the third and was already getting reminders at that stage. Nevertheless, he still jumped respectably and was moving into contention with intent when getting badly baulked on landing at the last. This effectively put paid to his race and he made no more contribution beyond passing beaten horses. Taken at face value, this was a disappointing effort. However, he was the closest it got to an unlucky horse in this particular contest as it is feasible he could have improved several places but for being badly impeded at a critical stage. His prospects hinge more on speculation than substance, but they are not entirely forlorn even in this company.

Kashi bg Karl Thornton f5-0-1 (63) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 48 53
Manduro (Rahy){19-b}(0.89) 3/1 Purple Moon 2nd Scottish Triumph Trial, Musselburgh 2007
After failing to match his debut second at Kempton in four subsequent outings, Kashi was bought out of the Andrew Balding yard for 8,000 guineas . He is not unfeasibly bred for the discipline but was an unfancied 50/1 ahead of his hurdles debut at Punchestown last month. Though he went right at the first and was untidy at the second, his jumping was largely acceptable. He was unable to leave the rear however and was struggling a fair way from home before finishing tired. While he may strip fitter for the outing and is a probable stayer, he would need to run beyond his best to feature here.

Persia bbc Joseph Patrick O'Brien f7-2-1 (96) 103
Galileo (Giant's Causeway){1-x}(0.77) No jumps relatives
The second of Joseph O'Brien's two runners, Persia is his trainer's highest rated ex-Ballydoyle horse to run in the sphere this season. Twice a winner last season at Galway and Chelmsford, his best effort came when beaten half a length by Desgraves in the Group Three Eyrefield Stakes. His seasonal reappearance did not come until September when a three and a half length ninth in the Petingo Handicap off 100, and a midfield finish in another "Premier" handicap at Listowel later that month. Galileo wins his fair share of juvenile hurdles, but nothing more, and while his dam was third in her Irish Oaks, the damline is bereft of jumpers with only Brave Inca's sire Good Thyne being the only relative of note at 4/1. Stamina and ability to handle soft ground are not concerns, but while he long featured in the Triumph ante-post markets, he is without an entry for the race.

Saeer chg Gordon Elliott f4-0-1 (63) 65 j2-0-0 (-) 98 105
Australia (Pivotal){6-e}(0.88) 2/1 Persian Warrior 1st Novice Hurdle, Stratford 2009
Saeer ran four times for Sir Michael Stoute, and with a flat rating of 63, joined Gordon Elliott for 9,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale. Horses leaving Freemason Lodge generally struggle to improve on their flat form and he was the least fancied of his yard's three runners at Punchestown on new year's eve.. Held up in midfield, he never looked like getting competitive and still had seven ahead of him at the distance. He usurped three of those rivals but was still beaten forty-four lengths in the end. His hurdling had been reasonable prior to a slow jump at the sixth, and the round was capped off by a pair of tired leaps at the final two flights. Though the better fancied of the Elliott pair on his return to the venue a fortnight ago, he was still an unfancied 40/1. While he jumped well enough and made some headway during the contest, he was never better than midfield and finished twenty-three lengths behind the winner. This was an improvement on his debut effort, but he would make little imminent appeal beyond moderate company.

Shantou Lucky chg Gavin Cromwell Unraced
Shantou (King's Theatre){14-f}(1.40) 1/1 Hoi Polloi 2nd 2m3?f Novices' Hurdle, Hereford 2020
Out of a winning jumper, a brother to Hoi Polloi, and half-brother to Eyes Of A Tiger, Shantou Lucky fetched €19,000 as a yearling before getting knocked down for €7,000 as a store horse. While Shantou is one of the most accomplished national hunt stallions of his generation, his record with juvenile hurdlers is moderate and he is without a winner from nine runners in the sphere since 2008/09. He is the chosen mount of Jonathan Moore, but the yard is not in its strongest shape and its record with newcomers is below average with unraced charges failing to win first time from nine.

Sheer Bravado bg S J Mahon f9-3-3 (91) 94
Fracas (New Approach){2-s}(0.67) 3/1 Peoples Cause 2nd 4yo Hurdle, Navan 2006
Though showing little on his first three starts, Sheer Bravado ran a solid third on his handicap debut at Gowran Park in September off a mark of 66. He followed up with a hat trick at Listowel, Tipperary and Killarney at on good and soft ground, over distances of seven furlongs and a mile. Though he has shown a tendency to wander under pressure, he does not appear to be ungenuine as he shows little aversion to passing rivals. However, he did struggle with a rise to 92 at Limerick in October and while he was travelling well at the distance when stepped up to ten furlongs at this distance, he was unable to lengthen and lost two places before the line. Sold for 62,000 guineas out of the Jim Bolger yard at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, he joins a Stephen Mahon yard which has not had a winning juvenile from four since The Quiet Enforcer made a winning debut at Galway in September 2008. Fracas has had two winners this term in Historic Heart and Peat Moss, but the damline is fairly barren and New Approach has yet to make much of an impact as a damsire in the division. Sheer Bravado has quality about him and should have little difficulty with the ground, although this may be too stiff a test on his first run in 105 days.

Showbusiness bg Gordon Elliott f2-0-0 (-) FrF
Camelot (Falco){2-d}(0.86) 3/1 Kamasan 1st 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Toulouse 2004

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/showbusiness

Gordon Elliott won this contest last season with newcomer Battle Of Wills, and while he could have up to three runners here, his first string would clearly be Showbusiness. Racing twice in the summer for Pia and Joakim Brandt, his debut came in June when contesting a twelve furlong newcomers race at Dieppe. Taking a very keen hold, he pulled his way into a lead which he maintained until the turn for home. While passed quite quickly by the first four, he still held upwards of five lengths in hand over his remaining rivals. The winner would go on to twice place in listed company with the second and third winning next time, and the fifth currently rated 76. His second outing came at Clairefontaine in July where he was still keen early, but his rider was able to get him into a more conservative position and while he encountered trouble in running, he managed to eventually snatch third in the shadow of the post. Though not bursting with subsequent winners, the form has largely held up and a rating in the high seventies would not be an unreasonable measure of his performances. He would fetch €76,000 at the Arqana Deauville Summer sale and has since joined this season's outstanding team for juveniles. Though a minor winner is the closest jumps relative at 3/1, Camelot is capable of producing top class juveniles including Sir Erec and Gardens Of Babylon. The trip and ground should not be concerns, and Showbusiness is in the right hands to do well in the sphere. However, he has already been with the yard for a while without seeing the track, does not hold any fancy entries at this stage, and given how headstrong he has been thus far, he is likely to be fresh on his first run for over two hundred days and no headgear has been applied to mitigate against same.

St James's Square bbc J Halley f1-0-0 (-) 50
War Front (Smart Strike){8-f}(3.00) 3/1 Arco Felice 4th 3m Handicap Hurdle (89), Ffos Las 2011
St James's Square cost €2,400,000 as a yearling, but ran only once on the flat for Aiden O'Brien where he finished down the field in a Naas maiden as a two year old. He was withdrawn from an intended engagement last June having been found lame, and has since left Ballydoyle to join John Halley. War Front's sole juvenile to date cut little ice, and sons of Danzig do not typically make juvenile hurdling sires. Smart Strike is winless from four as a damsire and the damline is bereft of hurdling talent. While Rachael Blackmore is booked, her record with John Halley is just one win from nineteen.

Toughari bg Thomas Mullins f7-1-0 (63) 66 j4-0-1 (112) 111 109
Tough As Nails (Imperial Ballet){14-e}(1.00) 2/2 Golden Sage 1st Grande Course de Haies des 4 Ans (L), Cagnes Sur Mer 2018
Toughari achieved little in his first six starts on the flat and one over hurdles, but was able to break his duck at Fairyhouse in a handicap off 53 and put up an improved showing here next time over hurdles when an eight length fifth to Jeff Kidder in November. He was not disgraced behind Youmdor later that month and ran his best race to date when last seen fifty days ago at Fairyhouse. His jumping had already been marked by trepidation and he was still steady going into several hurdles while getting in too close. Prominent in the chasing pack, he was left in the lead turning in but was headed at the last where he was allowed to find his own stride and rewarded his jockey's trust by losing valuable momentum. Though it can not be said for certain that the mistake cost him the race, the cumulative effect of his entire round will have made a telling difference. There is a moderate race in him at a venue similar to Fairyhouse, but he might benefit more from his handicap mark being dropped a few pounds.

Willywampus chg Donal Commins f5-0-1 (73) 82 j3-0-0 (-) 84 83
Zoffany (Medicean){16-h}(3.00) 3/1 Swiss Guard 1st Handicap Hurdle (93), Lingfield 2011
Three promising runs as a two-year-old saw Willywampus begin the year with a rating of 80. He ran nowhere near that level in two starts back in June and was keen early on his hurdles debut at Limerick in early December. He faded with four furlongs to run but his jumping was decent if nothing else. His next outing came at Fairyhouse and though he started at 125/1, he had yet to be asked a question when taking off too early and falling at the fifth. Returning to Limerick on Boxing Day, he settled in the rear and though he took off a fair way from the first, he got over it alright. He also tripped over the fifth but it did not cost him any momentum. He attempted to join the leading group but tripped again over the third last and was never going forward from there, apart from passing a beaten horse on the run-in. He has not yet approached his flat form in three outings now and will need a soft mark if he is to be competitive any time soon

[Kotkijet]

Zoffanien bg Denis Gerard Hogan f6-2-0 FrF 37.5 (85) 58 j3-0-2 (116) 116 122
Zoffany (Monsun){1-n}(0.87) 2/1 116 1st 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Auteuil 2011
Zoffanien was a fairly useful dual winner on the flat in France and made a pleasing start to his hurdling career at Limerick behind Crassus and Palm Beach. However, his jumping was nowhere near as tidy on his return to the venue on Boxing Day as after being badly baulked at the first, was hesitant and untidy at the second. While he was better over the next few, his round concluded with a series of untidy jumps and he was unable to match his debut performance. Though he was easy to back in the market at Punchestown a fortnight ago a return to form was not out of the question, particularly as he jumped soundly save for diving at three out. Held up in midfield, the aforementioned error came as the race was unfolding. A quick, if rash, jump two out put him back among the leading group. The front pair managed to get first run and he still had six horses ahead of him at the distance. Nevertheless, he finished much the fastest of the chasing group and closed to within five lengths of the front two with three and a half lengths in hand of the remainder. He has the capacity to win at this level, and his mark of 116 is very workable. He holds an entry for a four-year-old handicap at Limerick on Tuesday, although several of that race's runners are feasibly weighted and his hurdling form is the strongest in this field.

Brides Hill bf Gavin Cromwell j1-0-0 (-) 81 89
Dylan Thomas (Groom Dancer){5-h}(1.22) 0.5 Count Simon 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (133), Perth 2019
Though starting at 200/1 on her racecourse debut at Punchestown a fortnight ago, Brides Hill is at least related to winning hurdlers. Held up in the rear, she jumped poorly at most flights but was able to make some headway without ever threatening. She can improve for the experience but she has been passed over by the stable jockey for her unraced stablemate here.

RESERVES
Army Of One bf Gavin Cromwell f5-0-1 DeF GAG 63.5 (47) 67 j3-0-0 (-) 44 84
Kingston Hill (Authorized){2-n}(0.50) 2/1 Aberwind 3rd Handicap Hurdle (122), Compiegne 2020
Army Of One made her stable/hurdles debut in the Listed race at Aintree early in December, but finished ninety lengths behind the winner and would have been beaten further had they jumped more than five hurdles. Unfancied beforehand her next outing at Limerick, she was always closer to last than first and made errors, some of them quite bad, at each and every hurdle. Her disappointing form was reflected in her 150/1 price at Punchestown last time and after running keenly, her jumping was slightly better but still featured some nervy errors. She was likely to finish in around thirteenth, which would have been her best effort to date, when her jockey appeared to fall off at the last. Still has plenty to prove.

Pretorius chg Gavin Cromwell f2-0-0 DeF j1-0-0 (-) 104 112
Durban Thunder (Saddex){1-e}(0.54) 2/1 Pahaska 2nd 3yo Newcomers Hurdle, Auteuil 2016

https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-ra...external/18272

https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-ra...external/18435

Pretorius ran twice in Germany for Sascha Smrczek without achieving a great deal, and put on quite the performance when unshipping his rider and running loose ahead of his intended debut on new year's eve. Though he managed to clear a bank fence during his adventure, he all but unseated his rider at the first on his Punchestown debut and Jonathan Moore did as well to maintain the partnership as Pretorius did to stay on his feet. This error was not entirely of his own doing however as he was baulked on the approach to the flight and was also impeded at the second to less dramatic effect. He jumped well afterwards in midfield without moving into a challenging position and his round finished with more cautious jumps as a result of his exertions. It was not an outing devoid of promise, and though he looks rather limited overall, it will be interesting to see how he fares with the benefit of a clear round.

Raamez chg Gordon Elliott f8-1-0 FrF 36.5 (80.3) j2-0-0 (-) 8 15
Sea The Stars (Nayef){15-a}(1.86) 2/1 Takjreej 4th Selling Hurdle, Stratford 2012
Raamez won as a two-year-old for John Hammond and was not disgraced on his first outing for Fran?ois Rohaut back in May. However, his form deteriorated in the meantime and he fetched just 20,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Making his hurdling debut on new year's eve, he was held up in mid-division and fluent enough in the early stages. However, his jumping fell to pieces after getting very close to the fourth and was a spent force with half a mile to run. This performance in conjunction with his regressive flat form left him with much to answer, and he emerged from his latest outing with even greater cause for concern. His hurdling stood up better, but was still completely tailed off which deprives him of excuses related to fitness or aptitude.

Strong prospects
1. Coltor
Reasonable prospects
2. Zoffanien
3. Halifax
4. Persia
5. Showbusiness
Feasible prospects
6. Toughari
7. Iberia
8. Pretorius (RES)
9. Sheer Bravado
Moderate prospects
10. Charlie Bassett
11. Saeer
12. Shantou Lucky
13. Brides Hill
14. Army Of One (RES)
Negligible prospects
15. Willywampus
16. Anno Maximo
17. Kashi
18. Hisdaywillcome
19. St James's Square
20. Raamez (RES)
21. Baltinglass Hill