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Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

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  • With Chepstow's card looking likely to be given the go ahead, the juvenile division's first Grade 1 of the season is finally upon us. Since 2005, the Finale Hurdle has produced two Triumph Hurdle winners in Defi du Seuil and Countrywide Flame, four runners-up in Kentucky Hyden, Walkon, Franchoek and Fair Along, and last season's winner Allmankind would place third at the festival later in the campaign. We Have A Dream won Aintree's Grade One in 2018, and other stars to emerge during this time period include Bristol de Mai, Reve de Sivola and Twist Magic. Earlier editions have been graced by the likes of Bilboa, Bradbury Star, Crystal Spirit, Jair du Cochet, Kadastrof, Mysilv, Mister Banjo, Oh So Risky and Royal Derbi. With the exception of Jair du Cochet who was something very special, it will have been speculative at the time to imagine that most of the aforementioned would achieve the heights that they did. Nevertheless, while this season's edition looks a good quality affair, it does appear to be lacking somewhat. The best British form on offer comes from Adagio who was readily put in his place by Duffle Coat at Cheltenham, and the Irish crop looks decidedly stronger at this juncture. Nevertheless, with the exception of Monmiral and possibly the undefeated pair of Heross du Seuil and Good Ball who each ran recently, this is about as strong a field that could have been assembled at this stage of the season. With the Welsh National being one of the most gruelling races on the calendar, it is no surprise that Chepstow's average winning DIs for juveniles of 0.83 median, 1.13 mean, are among the lowest in the country. With the winners of this race taken in isolation, those figures drop to 0.80 and 0.93 which makes the race quite exceptional. The going is currently forecast to be heavy and with freezing temperatures expected overnight, the moisture in the ground will not be evaporating. The clear round rate of 96.28% is broadly average, and the high odds-on strike rate and low median SP make it a reliable enough racecourse.

    Triumph Hurdle
    Nassalam 14/1
    Adagio 20/1
    Houx Gris 25/1
    Elham Valley 50/1

    Adagio bg David Pipe f3-1-2 GAG 39.5 (87) 81 j3-2-1 (136) 122 127
    Wiener Walzer (Hernando){9-e}(0.73) 3/3 Labaik 1st Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2017

    Horses bought out of French flat Claimers have a fair winners to runners ratio of 21.43%, although when accounting for those costing upwards of €21,000, that rate increases to 50% with six of the twelve since 2008/09 finding success. That record has been bolstered this season due to the wins of Fergal O'Brien's Volkovka, and David Pipe's Adagio. Following two outings as a two-year-old, his first run for the Pavel Vovcenko stable saw him run out a convincing eight length winner of a twelve furlong Clairefontaine claimer under Christophe Soumillon. The form of that race has worked out fairly moderately, but such was his superiority, a rating in the early-mid eighties would be appropriate.Though he was publicly offered for sale after joining David Pipe for €25,555, he ended up with high profile owners of the yard and the relative of recently lost Labaik was a comfortable debutant winner at Warwick in early November. The form of that race is much of a muchness, but Adagio overcame some sloppy jumping to run out a convincing seven and a half length winner on ground that was probably firm enough. He was out eight days later in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham where he was a steady third in the market. Settling in midfield, he still lacked fluency on numerous occasions and though he moved into the lead turning for home, he would be passed at the furlong marker and was unable to quicken from there. Finishing five lengths behind Duffle Coat was an improved performance, and he continued that momentum on his return to the venue a month later. Apart from being slightly untidy at the first two, he put in a nice round of jumping on ground which would have been ideal. Held up near the rear, he was still in midfield turning for home before cruising into a prominent position at the distance and jumping into the lead over the last. From there, he ran on strongly, increasing his superiority to nearly five lengths on the line. Given his clear round and ground preference, he was able to run his best race to date. His official rating of 136 is behind only Nassalam whose British form does not yet have the same substance. The ground tomorrow will be the heaviest he has encountered outside of France, but while his pedigree is not inundated with plodders, it is stout enough to suggest he can handle the conditions. Especially given that his Clairefontaine win came on heavy ground. David Pipe has not had a runner in this race since outsider Sinndar's Man in 2014, but Adagio is one of his strongest candidates he has had in a while and with the yard in a good spell of form, Adagio's prospects are very tangible.

    Bannister bg Tom George f1-0-0 (-) 66 j5-1-2 (132) 114 124
    Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) 0.5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019

    Starting his hurdling career earlier than most, Bannister ran with some credit at Stratford and Market Rasen in the summer before scoring at Southwell when left well clear in an attritional contest in early September. Since then, he competed in a pair of contests in France, finishing second at Compiegne and fifth at Auteuil when last seen in October. On both instances, he ran keenly and quickly established a clear lead. At Compiegne, he began to tire leaving the back, but while he was headed inside the final furlong, he still battled back bravely and was held by only a neck. The first three pulled well clear and winner Martator capped his campaign with a three length third in a course and distance Groupe III. Bannister's performance at Auteuil saw him employ similar tactics and though he steadied at the third and tenth while trailing his hind legs through the fourth, he jumped the remaining eight flights very neatly. Caught at the final flight, he was a spent force and weakened quickly, losing fourth at the line and beaten eight lengths. The winner has not been seen since, the runner-up competed in a pair of listed races before winning a Cagnes-Sur-Mer Chase, and the third and fourth have valeurs of 58 and 57 respectively. Though measuring this performance is not an exact science, a rating in the mid 120s looks appropriate. Bannister brings decent hurdling form to this contest and is a very good hurdler at best. However, the yard is not in good form at the moment and the eighty-four day absence might exacerbate his habitual keenness.

    Elham Valley grg Fergal O'Brien f9-2-0 (74) 76 j1-1-0 (-) 116 116
    Tin Horse (Peintre Celebre){1-p}(1.33) 2/2 Gardens Of Babylon 3rd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2019
    A dual winner on the flat for Andrew Balding, Elham Valley left Kingsclere after winning a seller at Goodwood by thirteen lengths. Though he did not attract any bids afterwards, he still changed ownership and would run twice run for John Gallagher, finishing well held in a pair of soft ground handicaps off 78 and 75. Following a date with a pair of scissors, he joined a Fergal O'Brien yard which has enjoyed a fine season with its juveniles, including winners Naizagai and Volkovka. Though his hurdles debut came in a Sandown contest featuring the highly touted but disappointing Paros, was the subject of sustained support throughout the day, moving from 14/1 in the morning to 11/2 at the off. He was not the most fluent or natural of jumpers as he was big and slow to get away from the first, reached at the third, was slow over the next and met the last wrong, costing him momentum in the process. Fortunately for him, the runner-up was also untidy and he was able to build an advantage on the run-in before being eased close home. It was not a bad performance and he should be able to improve with tidier jumping. Furthermore, runner-up Hudson de Grugy paid the form a compliment when winning at the venue last week. However, this was his tenth run under rules which gives him less scope than most of his rivals.

    Houx Gris grg Paul Nicholls b2-1-1 h2-1-1 (-) 110 ?
    Gris de Gris (Network){u}(0.33) 3/1 Franco 3rd Prix Robert de Clermont-Tonnerre (G3), Auteuil 1999

    The bulk of Paul Nicholls' most succesful imports are typically acquired through private transactions, although he will still get horses who pass through the Arqana ring. The most pricey of these was 2016 Adonis Hurdle winner Zubayr at €380,000, while the useful Ptit Zig cost €100,000, and the exciting Sanctuaire was a relative snip at €80,000. Some did prove to be expensive however as Monsiuer Co (€155,000) won just the first of his six races for the yard, Marc Aurele (€180,000) left the yard with a rating of 116, and Al Amaan (€140,000) managed only a third in a Plumpton maiden. Costing €200,000 at the Arqana Deauville Autumn sale, Houx Gris carries hefty expectations. Nevertheless, his four runs for Sylvain Dehez are not without potential. After winning on his racecourse bow in a Cluny AQPS bumper in late June, he was denied by a length and a quarter at Vichy on the first of August while conceding eight kilos. His jumps debut came in an AQPS contest for hurdling debutants where he started at 9/1. Very keen early on, he was bustled on numerous occasions and made errors over the majority of the hurdles. He had settled behind the leaders but lost his position along the back straight, and while he eventually finished third, he was twenty-one lengths behind the winner. A direct form line leaves him behind Oliver Greenall's Herbiers, who was second at Musselburgh last week, but he was successful next time at the same venue in an ordinary conditions event. Though he made a few untidy jumps, it was a much better round than on his debut and after progressing from midfield, he moved into the lead approaching the last from where he battled well despite a high head carriage. The runner-up Homme Public has since joined Oliver Greenall, while the horse who was nearly nine lengths back in fourth has subsequently improved to finish third in a listed race ahead of winning a Pau steeplechase by seven lengths. A precise measure of Houx Gris' accomplishments is difficult to reach given that most of the opposition are unexposed and lightly raced. Nevertheless, the form likely exceeds the RPR of 116 by a good ten pounds. Paul Nicholls has won this twice from seventeen runners, although those two wins came from his last three charges in the contest with Dolos' third splitting the wins of Adrien Du Pont and Quel Destin. He has also introduced four French hurdles recruits in this contest, three of whom, namely Tatabeb, Sang Bleu and Caid Du Berlais, finished second. Gris de Gris has one winner from five in the division, but his record in France is much stronger and along with being a full-brother to a winning French juvenile, the third dam produced four winning jumpers in Declic, Impact, Azure and most notably, the graded class Franco. Houx Gris is something of an unknown quantity, but he ticks most boxes and is the representative of a strong trainer.

    Mr Shady grg J S Moore f18-1-5 (63) 72 j2-0-1 (117) 111 117
    Elzaam (Definite Article){4-i}(2.00) 3/1 Fontaine Fables 1st Novice Hurdle, Fairyhouse 1996
    A veteran of twenty races to date, Mr Shady was able to collect a Lingfield handicap on the flat and his rating of 63 in that sphere is justified. He made an encouraging hurdles debut when fourth of eleven at Ludlow in November and while he started at 80/1 and was still beaten by nearly twenty lengths, the performance broadly matched his flat form. He made errors at half of his jumps, but his trainer's juveniles are not known to fall and he put up a better round next time at Wetherby. Keen in the early stages, he was in the front line throughout the race and after going through the top of the first, he hurdled very well before flattening the first in the straight. He made a blunder at the penultimate flight and was not especially tidy at the last either, but he only lost the lead at the half-furlong marker and still kept on to the line. Despite his vast racing experience, this performance marked a new career best for Mr Shady due to his good hurdling during the bulk of the race. Though he is a tough and consistent sort, he has not shown enough ability to be seriously competitive in this type of contest. Furthermore, Stan Moore's four runners in this contest have failed to reach a better position than Foleys Quest's fifth of six in 1997.

    Nassalam chg Gary Moore j3-2-1 (140) 140 126
    Dream Well (Shirocco){14-b}(0.80) 0.5 Msassa 4th Champion Four Year Old Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2018

    The shortest priced British trained horse in the Triumph Hurdle markets, Nassalam found himself in that position by virtue of two demolition jobs at Fontwell in November and December. To suggest that he beat trees on those two outings does a disservice to the speed of some species as the Moluccan albizia has been documented reaching nearly eleven meters in just over a year. Perhaps the most reliable measure of his ability came on his French debut in a newcomers race at Clairefontaine in the end of June. The winner subsequently took a chase at Fontainebleau in October and another one at Auteuil in December. He is currently rated 143 while the horse who finished third is on 132, although that is a falling mark. Fourth placed Mistersister, who was less than two lengths behind, joined Charlie Mann after winning a Le Lion d'Angers claimer, but was pulled up on his British debut in the Summit Hurdle. Nassalam got big at a couple of the early flights at Clairefontaine and it was the same case on his UK debut at Fontwell. However, he became more fluent as the race progressed and while he was not foot perfect over the last, caution was the prevailing sentiment as his win was under no equine threat. The former inmate of Guillaume Macaire could not have won his race any easier having cruised into the lead turning for home before extending his advantage without being asked to accelerate. Though the runner-up had won in France, he disappointed again at Market Rasen and that is the only real measure for his UK form. He did win the race in a relatively good time, and followed up in an even weaker contest last month. Setting the pace throughout, he jumped left at every flight but was a bit neater than on his debut. He effortlessly drew clear to win by forty-nine lengths although the ineffectiveness of his opposition can not be understated. From a time performance on the ground and an assessment of the sectionals, he performed no better here than on his debut. Nassalam is clearly a useful horse but his latent superiority entitled him to win as he did and his further contraction in the Triumph markets was not justifiable on the basis of this outing alone. Gary Moore has yet to win this contest in ten attempts, with Sussex Ranger coming closest when second in 2018. Nevertheless, the yard has been among the winners recently and Nassalam is very much fits the "could be anything" trope. His overall form profile lacks discernible substance, but it will be exciting to see what he can produce in this company.

    Pyramid Place bg Milton Harris f4-0-0 (69) 66 j2-1-1 (104) 97 107
    Authorized (Zafonic){20-a}(0.81) 0.5 Jukebox Blues 9th Novices' Hurdle, Kelso 2020
    Pyramid Place did not reach the frame in four starts for John Gosden during the winter, but he was a consistent animal who ran to a fair level and subsequently sold for 27,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August sale. Horses who leave the Gosden yard rarely do well in juvenile hurdles, but with seven months to physically develop, he made a fine start in his new vocation at Lingfield. Keen early and held up in the rear, he had a tendency to jump to his left and like the winner, was none too fluent in the straight. He made slow and steady headway along the back and got to within five lengths of the winner at the last. He did not get away from it quickly and took time to find his stride on the run-in. Ultimately, he only failed by a short head, but given his freshness and lack of fitness or experience, he was entitled to improve and he made good on his promise when winning at Bangor in November. While he started the day at 2/5, he drifted out to 11/10 before starting at evens. He actually drifted out to 8.4 in-running although he never looked beaten at any stage. Tucked in behind the leaders in a slowly run contest, Pyramid Place took a bit of a hold, but it was still less pronounced than it was on his debut. He was always travelling comfortably enough and his jumping was also better than first time out with the only flaws being that he was slightly skewed over the third, fourth and at three out. He did not show an explosive turn of foot to take the lead between the final two flights, but he had a clear advantage by the last and stayed on strongly to the line. He did not have to improve from his debut to win last time, and from a form perspective, this effort leaves him with a lot to find here. Milton Harris saddled Mondul to finish second in the 2003 renewal of this contest, but his only other runner was well beaten at 100/1 in 2011.

    Yggdrasil bg Nick Williams j1-0-1 (-) 107 109
    Kapgarde (Le Balafre){4-m}(1.67) 0.5 Siruh du Lac 1st Mildmay of Fleet (G3,141), Cheltenham 2019
    Named after the home of Ratatoskr, Norse Mythology's only interesting character, Yggdrasil made his racecourse debut at Sandown early last month. Keen early on, he did not attack the initial jumps with any real conviction and got especially close to the fourth. His jumping was tidier from there and he was still in contention at the distance. However, his inexperience became conspicuous as he steadied into the penultimate flight and did not know what to make of Elham Valley squeezing past him. Though readily outpaced by the front pair, he still plugged on to win the battle for third. A Kapgarde half-brother to Siruh du Lac, Acta Est Fabula and Txamanxoia, out of a dual chase winner and closely related to 1995 Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil winner Matchou, Yggdrasil is bred to be a viable prospect in both the short and long term. He was one of two entries for the Williamses in the original iteration of this contest, with stablemate Honneur d'Ajonc (33/1, generally 25/1 for the Triumph) coming close to winning the alternative engagement when falling at the last at Kempton. Nick Williams has won this race twice from eight runners, with Me Voici winning in 2009, and Le Rocher scoring in 2013. He has also sent talented horses to run into third including Coo Star Sivola, and Reve de Sivola. Yggdrasil will still need to find improvement from his debut outing, but he ran with plenty of promise and has considerable scope for a yard that should not be underestimated in this contest.

    Strong prospects
    1. Yggdrasil
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Adagio
    3. Nassalam
    4. Houx Gris
    Feasible prospects
    5. Bannister
    Moderate prospects
    6. Elham Valley
    Negligible prospects
    7. Mr Shady
    8. Pyramid Place

    Comment


    • Kotkijet As the resident juvenile expert, what did you make of Adagio over the weekend?

      The general response on here wasn't that positive, which I found surprising as I thought he was really quite impressive. Had they finished in a heap then I'd concede on race depth arguments, but the top two in the market have well and truly strung out the field, including beating the French import you talk about above 21L (I think I read on the RP that the French Handicapper had a horse back in forth at Auteuil rated the equivalent of 130). Adagio clocked 3m56s which is the fastest time in 11 years (albeit soft not heavy), he's travelled strongly, winged the last and put a well fancied 140 rated Nassalem firmly in his place. To me he looks to be improving significantly.

      I think his loss to Duffle Coat remains the fly in the ointment. People have the Irish pecking order already established in their minds and DC isn't near the top of it, so if Adagio can't beat what would potentially be Gordons third string, then why would he beat first of second? I maintain that run came very soon after debut vs a race fit rival that started the season much earlier. Do you have any stats/thoughts on juveniles running within a week of one another, cause that seems like a fast turnaround to me, and perhaps a legitimate reason for the blemish on his CV?

      Keen to hear your thoughts - this is such a good thread btw - I am sure everything appreciates the hard work

      Comment


      • The reviews for the weekend's action have yet to be done as the past few days were spent in a state of agitation over the prospect of a move to a shelter or the streets (which the more lucid of the homeless people I spoke to claim is preferable to the former). Fortunately, I may have been offered a reprieve as a friend of a friend might be looking for lodger. Naturally, this has prompted a new series of matters that require attendance, but priorities being priorities, here is an essay for the juvenile at Catterick which may or may not be sleeted away.

        Corresponding race held on the North Yorkshire Grand National card each season since 2010
        Eight of the ten winners had UK/IRE hurdling experience
        Cockney Sparrow was beaten in this race at 1/6 in 2013 before winning handicap hurdle at Aintree festival
        Cornerstone Lad won in 2018 prior to close second in Victor Ludorum
        Intense Tango won in 2015 ahead of win in Doncaster Mares' Hurdle
        Though a maiden in all but name, race has some useful placed form as well as expensive flat recruit.
        Seven of the trainers and all but one of the sires have above average records in the sphere
        Average winning RPRs of 114.5md and 115.8mn are slightly higher than course average, but lower than standard
        Course winning DIs of 1.20md, 1.26mn roughly average
        Median SP 4.00 higher than average, but record of odds-on favs 70.59% above average
        Going currently soft with sleet forecast overnight. Precautionary inspection at 7.30am

        Balkardy chg Evan Williams j1-0-1 (-) 97 99
        Balko (Limnos){1-e}(0.50) 2/2 Roll On Has 1st Prix Alain du Breil (G1), Auteuil 2014
        Few racecourse debutants outside of France will have been better bred than Balkardy. A son of Balko (Blacko, Gitaine du Berlais, Ubaltique), his granddam was a dual winning juvenile in France and is the matriarch of a line which includes Royale Cazoumaille (fourth in the 2005 Grand Prix d'Automne and dam of Venetia Williams' promising Royale Pagaille), Royal Satarania (first in the 2015 Prix Murat), Inoxe Royale (winner of a four year old Listed Chase) and top French juvenile hurdler Roll On Has. While not well fancied ahead of his Warwick introduction last month, drifting from 18/1 in the morning to start at 33/1, he still ran with promise. Held up in rear, his first three jumps were big and untidy but he was soon hurdling with more fluency. Though he never got close to the leaders, he stayed on well up the straight to finish a clear third. Runner-up Ambassador is the only prominent horse to have come out of the race, but he did build on his debut when left in third at Kempton. Evan Williams has had only one winner in the past fortnight, but that did come in the Welsh National and most of his shorter priced charges have been running close. His overall record with juveniles is a solid one and though he has gone just over a year without a winner in the division, both of his juveniles have been placed this term. Balkardy has a good all round profile and though he has around ten pounds to find on hurdling form with Wise Eagle, he did shape like an obvious improver first time out.

        Caldwell bc Michael Scudamore f3-0-2 (-) 73 j1-0-1 (-) 99 86
        Dansili (Barathea){13-c}(1.67) 1/1 Quebec 1st Novices' Hurdle, Market Rasen 2015
        Placed on the first two of his three starts for Dermot Weld, Caldwell joined his new connections for 28,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. The standard of flat form is perfectly respectable in the context of this discipline and he is a brother to two winning hurdlers. While he was withdrawn on account of heavy ground at Listowel, he was not entirely unsuited by the conditions at Wetherby where he received warm market support through the day. However, a conspicuous misgiving from the flat was his peculiar headcarriage and this translated into a very sloppy round of jumping on his hurdles debut. He steadied into the first where he jumped big and to the left, was big and left at the second, steadied and got close to the third, was close and skewed over the fourth, close again into the fifth, clipped the top and stumbled on landing at the sixth (this was his best jump of the race), skewed and went left at the seventh and eighth and was big and skewed over the last. Tracking the leader throughout, he was taken the scenic route and was still in contention at the top of the straight. The futility of his task revealed itself as the race began to wrap up and rather sensibly, he was given nothing harsher than a hands and heels ride and was allowed to come home in his own time with almost fifty lengths in hand over his remaining opponents. Though he was beaten a distance, it was still a promising debut as in the absence of Hacker des Places, he would have been a very impressive winner in spite of the litany of jumping errors. His jumping absolutely needs to improve and he might also benefit from a date with a pair of scissors which has not happened in the past couple of weeks. Nevertheless, it was his first run for over two months, he should be fitter for the experience and if it does not have the impact of draining him too much, he can be competitive in ordinary company. Michael Scudamore has a low strike rate in the division however and those of his who have won, did so after more than two runs over hurdles.

        El Jefe bg Brian Ellison f7-0-2 (53) 57 j1-0-0 (-) 15 9
        Born To Sea (Montjeu){22-a}(0.63) 2/1 Mountain 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2007
        Brian Ellison has the strongest record of the trainers represented in this field, and has five wins from twenty-two juveniles at this venue since 2009. His runner here, El Jefe, was moderate on the flat, but his best effort in that sphere was also his latest one when second in a Redcar handicap off 51 after a wind operation. He was very well backed to make a winning hurdles debut at Wetherby eighteen days ago, starting the day at 33/1, opening in the ring at 9/1, and setting off at 16/5. However, while he jumped well enough save for going left at the second and steadying at the fourth, he took a keen hold up from the start to the home straight where he faded to finish over a hundred lengths behind the winner. It is possible that the run was too bad to be deemed reliable and El Jefe is at least bred to do better as a hurdler. Nevertheless, even his strongest flat form will leave him short in this company.

        Lanval bg Sam England f3-0-1 (58) 61
        Camelot (Woodman){8-c}(1.00) 2/2 Den Maschine 1st Handicap Hurdle (115), Sandown 2012
        Making his debut in September, Lanval ran three times on the flat for David Menuisier with the best performance coming last time when beaten eighteen lengths in a Chelmsford novice stakes. Since then, he joined Sam England for 1,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Camelot is a useful stallion in the division and his 55 rated Hen managed to win a very modest handicap at Uttoxter last season. However, there no other cause for enthusiasm in the profile.

        Masterdream bg Tim Vaughan f4-0-0 (73) 70 j2-0-0 (-) 70 68
        Sea The Stars (Danehill Dancer){20}(1.40) 3/1 Vasco Marengo 1st 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2009
        Though he fetched 56,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, Masterdream did not really achieve enough during three runs for John Oxx to warranty such a price. He was unfancied ahead of his hurdling bow where jumped poorly and finished tailed off, and quadrupled from a morning show of 20/1 when last again at Taunton just over a fortnight ago. He jumped better on that occasion and managed to finish closer to the winner, but he was still beaten nearly forty lengths and was the last of the six finishers.

        Punctuation bg Charlie Longsdon f8-1-3 (83) 91
        Dansili (Galileo){12-c}(0.86) 3/1 King Carew 2nd Handicap Chase (Listed,120), Cork 2003
        Andrew Balding had seventeen three-year-olds offered at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, with his top lot going to Saudi Arabia for 185,000 guineas. The next best seller was Punctuation whose bid of 110,000 guineas diverted him from the desert to near Chipping Norton. Former residents of Kingsclere win their fair share of juvenile hurdles, although little over a quarter will improve for the switch between codes. Balding has been responsible for seven juveniles who fetched more than 100,000 guineas and while three were winners, only Flaxen Flare could be described as pattern class. Charlie Longsdon has a respectable winners to runners rate of 29.03%, and Punctuation is set be his most expensive public purchase by some margin, with the next priciest being dual winner Paintball at 70,000 guineas in 2010. Punctuation, as a racehorse rather than a commodity, made his debut last January when a head second to To Nathaniel in a twelve furlong novice stakes at Kempton. The following month, he took a course and distance maiden by eleven lengths from a fairly moderate field. He was stepped up to pattern company for his next two starts at Newmarket and Ascot, but was well beaten on each occasion. The remainder of his four runs came in fourteen furlong, class two handicaps at Haydock, Sandown and twice at York, during which time his mark dropped from 89 to 83. Though he had a questionable headcarriage when last seen in October, he has generally looked quite straightforward although there may be a preference for firmer ground. Dansili has a strong 35.14% winners to runners rate in the division, and Galileo is a stronger damsire than sire. The dam is a half-sister to a pair of minor jumps winners as well as successful national hunt sire Kalanisi. Along with this entry, Punctuation is also declared in the Chatteris Fen at Huntingdon. Quite whether this is indicative of the stable's expectations, or its desire to get a run into him is a matter of speculation, but his flat rating is well above average for a recruit into the division. Brian Hughes is an interesting booking should he take this engagement, and the yard's only other juvenile to have ran at Catterick finished second in the 2015 renewal of this contest. However, the stable is not in the strongest form at the moment and only one of its twenty-nine juvenile hurdlers has won first time out.

        Rains Of Castamere chg Mick Channon f12-4-2 (71) 75 j1-0-0 (-) - 73?
        Harbour Watch (Cadeaux Genereux){5-g}(3.00) 3/2 Quill Art 1st Novices' Handicap Hurdle (97), Doncaster 2016
        Winning a seller on his final start as a two year old, and a handicap on his first run after a winter break, Rains Of Castamere went into October with nine races to his name. Nevertheless, while he was well beaten when third in a Leicester handicap, he wrapped up his latest campaign with a double in a pair of mile handicaps at Windsor and Newmarket. The form of those outings has been patchy at best and though he was not unfancied, he lacked fluency when well beaten at Plumpton on his hurdling debut less than twenty-four hours ago. It would be a surprise is he makes the long journey after such a poor showing.

        Saint Palais bg Richard J Bandey j2-0-1 (-) 68
        Saint Des Saints (Turgeon){26}(1.29) 1/1 Lord Du Mesnil 2nd National Hunt Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2020

        Cutting his teeth in the point to point field, Richard Bandey began training under rules in 2018 and Saint Palais is set to be his first juvenile hurdler. One of Francois Nicolle's four runners in the Prix d'Essai des Poulains back in March, Saint Palais was the third string in the market, just ahead of stablemate Quilixios. In the event, Quilixios won with ease and is now a leading fancy for the Triumph, while Saint Palais lacked fluency and finished a tailed off last. Following a break of close to eight months, he returned in a nineteen furlong steeple chase at Maure de Bretagne. A contest worth just €12,000, it resembled more a cross country chase and Saint Palais jumped rather inconsistently before closing on the leaders and failing to win by a narrow margin. The quality of the form is negligible outside of the provinces, but race did hint at the very likely future for Saint Palais. A full brother to Lord du Mesnil, his dam and two other siblings won over fences as four-year-olds, and the Scottish National runner-up Goonyella along with the excellent French stayer Shannon Rock appear at 3/2 on the damline. Bred to make a staying chaser, Saint Palais is unlikely to make much impact in this discipline outside of very moderate company.

        Salamanca School bg Warren Greatrex f7-1-3 (65) 76
        Rock Of Gibraltar (Pennekamp){9-e}(1.91) 1/1 Sofia's Rock 3rd Listed Hurdle, Kempton 2019
        Habitual front-runner Salamanca School ran seven times on the flat for Mark Johnston, winning a seller as a two-year-old, and was last seen finishing thirteen lengths behind Elham Valley when runner-up in another seller at Goodwood at the end of August. Between those outings, he competed in three handicaps, but was well beaten on each occasion and his mark dropped from 79 to 65 during 2020. Joining Warren Greatrex for ?12,500 at the Goffs September sale, he is with a yard that boasts a decent winners to runners ratio of 28%, and a healthy improvement rate of 52.63%. Rock Of Gibraltar gets his fair share of winners but his improvement rate of 32.61% is the lowest in the field and both sire and trainer have below par overall strike rates. Salamanca School is a full brother to the useful Sofia's Rock, and Danny Whizzbang also appears on the damline at 2/3. Nevertheless, while there are positive in the profile and the ground should not be a problem, the regressive flat form and the wind operation prior to his sale at Goffs are not particularly encouraging.

        Simply True chg D J Jeffreys f18-4-1 (85) 87 h1-0-0 (-) 74 76
        Camacho (Beat Hollow){5-h}(1.46) 2/1 Dr Livingstone 1st Novices' Hurdle, Leicester 2009
        Four times a winner on the flat for Andrew Oliver, earning a rating of 85 in the process, Simply True joined David Jeffreys for 50,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Pitched in at the deep end on his hurdling debut at Cheltenham last month, he was weak in the market beforehand, drifting from an opening show of 9/1 out to 18/1 at the off. Though he led for all but the last three furlongs of the race, his reticent jumping and relative keenness prevented him from looking a serious threat. He lost his position turning for home and dropped back quickly through the field as he trailed in by nearly fifty lengths, and beating only one home. His ability to set the pace over hurdles is a positive and he should benefit for the experience in this softer contest. Furthermore, the yard had a couple of thirds at this venue eleven days ago so Simply True would not be a forlorn hope.

        Wise Eagle chg Adam Nicol f6-1-0 (67) 74 j1-0-1 (-) 106 110
        Free Eagle (Exceed And Excel){9-e}(1.00) 3/2 Cardinal Palace 2nd Persian War Novices' Hurdle (G2) Chepstow
        Although he won a Lingfield maiden in February on his second flat start, Wise Eagle had subsequently finished seventh on four consecutive outings in handicap company. Leaving Tom Clover for 7,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, he was sent off at 66/1 for his, and his new trainer's, first attempt in a juvenile hurdle at Wetherby last month. His latest rating of 67 was a reasonable reflection of his ability although he did pull extremely hard at Yarmouth in October. The blinkers he wore on the flat were left off for his stable/hurdling debut and he settled well in midfield from the outset. Apart from getting close to the sixth, he posted a respectable round for a newcomer and while he could not get near the winner, a better jump at the last enabled him to finish second. It was not the highest quality contest, but the field was strung out and though the winner was beaten at Musselburgh at the start of the month, he appeared to maintain his form nevertheless. Those previously placed in the first three in Catterick juveniles have nine wins from twenty-eight runners, and with the form of Wise Eagle being the strongest shown over hurdles in this contest, he would be entitled to plenty of respect.

        Strong prospects
        1. Wise Eagle
        Reasonable prospects
        2. Balkardy
        3. Punctuation
        4. Simply True
        Feasible prospects
        5. Caldwell
        Moderate prospects
        6. Salamanca School
        7. Saint Palais
        8. El Jefe
        Negligible prospects
        9. Masterdream
        10. Rains Of Castamere
        11. Lanval

        Comment


        • It's important not to let real life get in the way of a juvenile hurdle at Catterick.


          Who has been your favourite ever juvenile.... not who has gone on to be the best, but who was your favourite... (they can be the same)...

          Comment


          • Originally posted by charlie View Post
            Kotkijet As the resident juvenile expert, what did you make of Adagio over the weekend?

            The general response on here wasn't that positive, which I found surprising as I thought he was really quite impressive. Had they finished in a heap then I'd concede on race depth arguments, but the top two in the market have well and truly strung out the field, including beating the French import you talk about above 21L (I think I read on the RP that the French Handicapper had a horse back in forth at Auteuil rated the equivalent of 130). Adagio clocked 3m56s which is the fastest time in 11 years (albeit soft not heavy), he's travelled strongly, winged the last and put a well fancied 140 rated Nassalem firmly in his place. To me he looks to be improving significantly.

            I think his loss to Duffle Coat remains the fly in the ointment. People have the Irish pecking order already established in their minds and DC isn't near the top of it, so if Adagio can't beat what would potentially be Gordons third string, then why would he beat first of second? I maintain that run came very soon after debut vs a race fit rival that started the season much earlier. Do you have any stats/thoughts on juveniles running within a week of one another, cause that seems like a fast turnaround to me, and perhaps a legitimate reason for the blemish on his CV?

            Keen to hear your thoughts - this is such a good thread btw - I am sure everything appreciates the hard work
            Thank you Charlie for the compliments along with the thought provoking angle.

            I have yet to have a proper look at the race due to personal circumstances, but my initial thoughts were that the performance gave a boost to the credentials of Duffle Coat, and that while Adagio has probably improved since his second outing, he has a marked preference for the type of soft ground not typically seen at the festival. Furthermore, though the front two did pull clear, they might have been entitled to do so without improving a great deal as Houx Gris may have lacked fitness, Elham Valley is not a pattern class horse, Yggdrasil likely needs further, Mr Shady and Pyramid Place were outclassed and Bannister ran too strong for his own good. The latter's antics may have also exaggerated the winning time but again, these were my impressions on a single viewing of the race I will have to look at it all more closely. Your insight has given me food for thought.

            Regarding those coming back after a week or less (not including those who competed on the flat), There have been 560 such horses since the 2008/09 season, 62 of whom were able to win following this break. Narrowed down to those who did so on their second outings, this leave 12 winners from 194. Given that there have been 2118 winners from 21086 runs, you're looking at a standard of 10.04% so while the quick reappearance rate of 11.07% appears to have a negligible impact, the rate of those having just their second start is just 6.19% so you may be on to something.

            In going through this, I just spotted that Adagio ran eight days after his debut so let's increase the turnaround to ten days for the sake of argument.

            All juveniles - 141 wins from 1320 runs = 10.68%
            Second outing - 33 wins from 512 runs = 6.45%

            Adagio won first time out, so taking first time out winners in isolation

            First time out winners = 553
            Second outing in ten or less days - 7 wins from 29 runs = 24.14%
            Second outing in eleven or more days - 141 wins from 524 runs = 26.91%

            This appears to be less clear cut... FWIW, by my ratings, I had Adagio improving seven pounds from Warwick to Cheltenham, but only two pounds on his return to the Cotswolds. I am not of the opinion that he ran flat second time out.

            Insofar as Duffle Coat being the nth string of the Elliott yard, I am of the opinion that he is a dangerous horse to underestimate. He was completely unfancied on his racecourse debut and the yard assumed he was effectively a job lot. Even at Wetherby, he was passed over by Richard Johnson in favour or stablemate Longclaw. Though he is not a fashionable type representing big owners, and he clearly does little at home, he has done everything asked of him on the racecourse and more. This is not to say he beats Zanahiyr and Quilixios, but if I was to choose between the Triumph and the Fred Winter, sending him to the Triumph would be an instant decision.

            Hopefully, I can have the Finale review done before too long although that largely depends on circumstances and whatnot.

            Will be interested if you have any further ideas on the matter.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
              It's important not to let real life get in the way of a juvenile hurdle at Catterick.


              Who has been your favourite ever juvenile.... not who has gone on to be the best, but who was your favourite... (they can be the same)...
              I completely agree. If you're not completely enthralled by the opening race on a midwinter Thursday card at Catterick then I don't believe one is truly alive...

              I think I am spent for the day and will probably go to bed in a moment (while I still have one lol) so I might be forgetting a really obvious one. As a pure juvenile, I thought that Our Conor was the complete article. As for one that captured my imagination as a juvenile and continued to do so in his later career, Jair du Cochet was something special and I am convinced to this very day that he would have beaten Best Mate in the Gold Cup.

              How about yourself?

              Comment


              • Well, in 2013 I backed Rolling Star to win the Triumph... so I can't even boast about backing Our Conor's main rival and collecting for 2nd place despite the 15L walloping.

                Not aware of Jair du Cochet but I'll research for next time.



                For me, embarassingly, Charli Parcs. The day he was due to face Defi Du Seuil (before getting pulled) I have what is without a doubt one of the biggest singles I've ever placed. Hindsight says getting my stake back is probably the luckiest I've ever been.


                I have to also admit that Beltor absolutely suckered me in. I thought he was an absolute good-thing after his Adonis win. That's not even that long ago is it. 2015? I thnik he ran alright in the Triumph to be fair, and I think I already had a bet on the winner, Peace and Co? I remember him winning as I had an "Peace and Un De Sceaux" double... and UDS won the Arkle. "Peace and Sceaux" I called it... I probably only won a few hundred in hindsight.... and what was that JP horse that yuear, was it Hargam, that for about 5 years afterwards I (and I'm sure plenty of others) thought was a handicap plot hahha
                Last edited by Kevloaf; 14 January 2021, 01:56 AM.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by Kotkijet View Post

                  Thank you Charlie for the compliments along with the thought provoking angle.

                  I have yet to have a proper look at the race due to personal circumstances, but my initial thoughts were that the performance gave a boost to the credentials of Duffle Coat, and that while Adagio has probably improved since his second outing, he has a marked preference for the type of soft ground not typically seen at the festival. Furthermore, though the front two did pull clear, they might have been entitled to do so without improving a great deal as Houx Gris may have lacked fitness, Elham Valley is not a pattern class horse, Yggdrasil likely needs further, Mr Shady and Pyramid Place were outclassed and Bannister ran too strong for his own good. The latter's antics may have also exaggerated the winning time but again, these were my impressions on a single viewing of the race I will have to look at it all more closely. Your insight has given me food for thought.

                  Regarding those coming back after a week or less (not including those who competed on the flat), There have been 560 such horses since the 2008/09 season, 62 of whom were able to win following this break. Narrowed down to those who did so on their second outings, this leave 12 winners from 194. Given that there have been 2118 winners from 21086 runs, you're looking at a standard of 10.04% so while the quick reappearance rate of 11.07% appears to have a negligible impact, the rate of those having just their second start is just 6.19% so you may be on to something.

                  In going through this, I just spotted that Adagio ran eight days after his debut so let's increase the turnaround to ten days for the sake of argument.

                  All juveniles - 141 wins from 1320 runs = 10.68%
                  Second outing - 33 wins from 512 runs = 6.45%

                  Adagio won first time out, so taking first time out winners in isolation

                  First time out winners = 553
                  Second outing in ten or less days - 7 wins from 29 runs = 24.14%
                  Second outing in eleven or more days - 141 wins from 524 runs = 26.91%

                  This appears to be less clear cut... FWIW, by my ratings, I had Adagio improving seven pounds from Warwick to Cheltenham, but only two pounds on his return to the Cotswolds. I am not of the opinion that he ran flat second time out.

                  Insofar as Duffle Coat being the nth string of the Elliott yard, I am of the opinion that he is a dangerous horse to underestimate. He was completely unfancied on his racecourse debut and the yard assumed he was effectively a job lot. Even at Wetherby, he was passed over by Richard Johnson in favour or stablemate Longclaw. Though he is not a fashionable type representing big owners, and he clearly does little at home, he has done everything asked of him on the racecourse and more. This is not to say he beats Zanahiyr and Quilixios, but if I was to choose between the Triumph and the Fred Winter, sending him to the Triumph would be an instant decision.

                  Hopefully, I can have the Finale review done before too long although that largely depends on circumstances and whatnot.

                  Will be interested if you have any further ideas on the matter.
                  As far as replies go Kotkijet that's one of the most detailed / well researched replies I've ever had!! Thank you.

                  Your point re Bannister's antics exaggerating the winning time in Adagio's race is an interesting one. A lot was made of Zanahiyr's time at Fairyhouse, but I think the same theory could apply. There was a lot of excitement about his winning time and tipsters analysed this by comparing his run to other races on the card. To me that seems futile given how those other races were run. Druid's Alter went off like a lunatic and was beaten 48L by Zanahiyr, then lost 8L when they reposed off a more sedate pace. To me that strongly supports the point you raise re Adagio's race time being exaggerated, and can also apply to Zanahiyr.

                  That 6.19% figure re second start in 10 days is interesting, made perhaps more interesting by trainers being less likely to target big pots and more competitive races in such a quick turnaround time, meaning a low percentage win rate off a short turnaround is probably based on races not too dissimilar in depth from debut company, so in Adagio's case vs better horses in a much more competitive race, it is perhaps even more understandable why he didn't win. It certainly lends itself to thinking Adagio's turnaround time could have been his undoing that day, but at the same time I don't want to play down Duffle Coat.

                  I completely agree re Duffle Coat and he is a dangerous horse to underestimate. If he wore the CPS colours he'd be 5/1 or less, of that I have little doubt. He's 14/1. I am going to do a piece on Zanahiyr and stick him in the 'favourites bin' thread cause I think he's been overhyped and his price makes him very opposable.


                  Comment


                  • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                    It's important not to let real life get in the way of a juvenile hurdle at Catterick.
                    Am I alone in completely ignoring any horse with Catterick form ? I do the same with Plumpton (Pentland Hills of course did win here).
                    I just don’t see either course attracting quality horses and if a trainer sends their horses to these tracks it usually (odd exception granted) tells me plenty about that horses ability...

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                      Well, in 2013 I backed Rolling Star to win the Triumph... so I can't even boast about backing Our Conor's main rival and collecting for 2nd place despite the 15L walloping.

                      Not aware of Jair du Cochet but I'll research for next time.



                      For me, embarassingly, Charli Parcs. The day he was due to face Defi Du Seuil (before getting pulled) I have what is without a doubt one of the biggest singles I've ever placed. Hindsight says getting my stake back is probably the luckiest I've ever been.


                      I have to also admit that Beltor absolutely suckered me in. I thought he was an absolute good-thing after his Adonis win. That's not even that long ago is it. 2015? I thnik he ran alright in the Triumph to be fair, and I think I already had a bet on the winner, Peace and Co? I remember him winning as I had an "Peace and Un De Sceaux" double... and UDS won the Arkle. "Peace and Sceaux" I called it... I probably only won a few hundred in hindsight.... and what was that JP horse that yuear, was it Hargam, that for about 5 years afterwards I (and I'm sure plenty of others) thought was a handicap plot hahha
                      That you are unfamiliar with Jair du Cochet is the first time I have actually felt old! I used to read about old fogies going on about that sea bird who used to nest with a pigeon during the night when a nurse would attend to the monks in the field near Lanzarote and it was a real comedy of dramatists errors. I thought they were all senile but now it's happened to me. One day, you're going to casually mention "The Machine" and some kid will look at you blankly.

                      I think I was at Kempton when Charli Parcs fell when probably beaten by Master Blueyes. I don't think I was fully engaged that season and in hindsight, I did not miss much, although it is interesting to see that Silver Streak was plodding around in handicaps. 2014/15 was some season though. Hargam disappointed at Cheltenham in November, but made amends the next month on the same day Peace and Co dotted up in the Summit, Bristol de Mai looked like the next big thing in the Finale Hurdle then Top Notch (who won the same race as Quilixios) cruised home on his long awaited debut at Newbury. Petite Pairisenne took care of Kalkir at Leopardstown then out of nowhere, Beltor.

                      Originally posted by charlie View Post

                      As far as replies go Kotkijet that's one of the most detailed / well researched replies I've ever had!! Thank you.

                      Your point re Bannister's antics exaggerating the winning time in Adagio's race is an interesting one. A lot was made of Zanahiyr's time at Fairyhouse, but I think the same theory could apply. There was a lot of excitement about his winning time and tipsters analysed this by comparing his run to other races on the card. To me that seems futile given how those other races were run. Druid's Alter went off like a lunatic and was beaten 48L by Zanahiyr, then lost 8L when they reposed off a more sedate pace. To me that strongly supports the point you raise re Adagio's race time being exaggerated, and can also apply to Zanahiyr.

                      That 6.19% figure re second start in 10 days is interesting, made perhaps more interesting by trainers being less likely to target big pots and more competitive races in such a quick turnaround time, meaning a low percentage win rate off a short turnaround is probably based on races not too dissimilar in depth from debut company, so in Adagio's case vs better horses in a much more competitive race, it is perhaps even more understandable why he didn't win. It certainly lends itself to thinking Adagio's turnaround time could have been his undoing that day, but at the same time I don't want to play down Duffle Coat.

                      I completely agree re Duffle Coat and he is a dangerous horse to underestimate. If he wore the CPS colours he'd be 5/1 or less, of that I have little doubt. He's 14/1. I am going to do a piece on Zanahiyr and stick him in the 'favourites bin' thread cause I think he's been overhyped and his price makes him very opposable.

                      You're welcome Charlie

                      I am a novice when it comes to looking at times and sectionals etc. But I can imagine it being a useful tool when it comes to looking at the pace of a race, and if two or more races on the same card are ran at a similar tempo then we can also get a gauge on the class of a contest. A lot was made of Simon Rowlands' analysis and he has probably forgotton more than I could learn on the matter. Nevertheless, if we take those times from Fairyhouse at face value, what they tell us in the most literal sense is that Zanahiyr is some forty-five pounds superior to Ballyadam which is too absurd to be true and needs a lot of contextualisition.

                      That being said, I have been a fan of Zanahiyr's since he was set to make his debut at Ballinrobe and while no juvenile is bombproof, I think he deserves to be the favourite for the Triumph at this stage on known form. Although while he was second at Navan on the flat, he has not ran to a high level on an undulating track over hurdles and as the trials image I posted on the Triumph thread shows, form at Cheltenham is a huge benefit as after the Spring Juvenile, the next three most prolific stepping stones were all Cheltenham races.

                      The turnaround thing probably takes in many variables such as a horse's experience, constitution, trainer and career plans to name a few. Incidentally, if we take David Pipe in isolation, his strike rate for all juveniles returning after ten or less days is 12 from 48, which considering it doesn't even take last time out performances into account, is a huge 25%. Although apart from Hunterview, who was having his third hurdles run, the others already had at least five races to their names. Conversely, Nicky Henderson has only run seven with such a turnaround with none of them winning.

                      You touched on the French handicap ratings in your previous post and while I do look at them and use them in previews, I tend to add a pinch of salt because many of the marks seem to overestimate modest horses, almost arbitrarily. Cases from this season alone using BHA translations would be Bannister being lumbered with 132 after finishing midfield in a ordinary race at Auteuil, Hacker des Places getting 132 on the basis of a June win at Dax, and Mistersister and Shentri starting with marks of 130 despite being claiming class. While I am often perplexed by how RPR arrive at some of their ratings in the division, their French marks tend to get as much weight in my assessments as the valeurs. Flat ratings are a different matter as I have found, at least by memory rather than concerted study, that they are more tangible given there is more form to work from over a range of climatic seasons.

                      Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                      Am I alone in completely ignoring any horse with Catterick form ? I do the same with Plumpton (Pentland Hills of course did win here).
                      I just don’t see either course attracting quality horses and if a trainer sends their horses to these tracks it usually (odd exception granted) tells me plenty about that horses ability...
                      Didn't Plumpton used to do that Festival double bonus thing? I know that attracted some useful sorts, particularly from Alan King who used to farm that four-year-old chase, including with Voy Por Ustedes IIRC.

                      In general terms though, you are correct. Plumpton's best juveniles have been Pentland Hills and Devilment while the only Catterick juvenile to achieve an RPR of 140 the same season was Orsippus. It isn't to say horses who eventually become high class don't spend some of their formative time at the lesser venues as Balder Succes, The Young Master and Violet Dancer span around Plumpton as youngsters while Cornerstone Lad and Cockney Sparrow did the same at Catterick. But compared to the larger venues, it is a different kettle of fish. Neither Ascot nor Sandown host any "named" contests, but since 2008/09, the former has had fifteen juveniles who would eventually have official ratings of 150 and above while the latter has had twenty-two.

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by Kotkijet View Post
                        Didn't Plumpton used to do that Festival double bonus thing? I know that attracted some useful sorts, particularly from Alan King who used to farm that four-year-old chase, including with Voy Por Ustedes IIRC.
                        Yes K they did but it lost all credibility when Coneygree was forced to withdraw by the starter on vets advice leading to a war of words between the Bradstocks and Plumpton officials who no doubt had some influence over the vet...

                        Comment


                        • Haha, now I've not had a few beers, I do recognise the name Jair du Cochet, (I should have said it out loud last night rather than just reading it!) the only horse to beat Best Mate is his claim to fame? Best Mate is before my time though, to me Jim Culloty was just an average and 'random' trainer, I didn't know he'd ridden a Gold Cup winner until he's trained a festival winner

                          I remember watching that season and the jockey being at absolute pains to settle Peace and Co, probably Barry, trying to get cover in a really small field. It was quite an exciting race to be fair, I just got carried away with Beltor

                          Comment


                          • Saturday's juvenile hurdle at Fairyhouse is only the fourth iteration in its current format and has featured only sixteen runners to date. Nevertheless, it has been a very dense contest in terms of quality with fourteen of those also taking in other notable races. The 2018 edition saw Winning Fair victor Michouka score from Fred Winter winner Veneer Of Charm, 2019 was fought out between Spring Juvenile third Surin and Triumph third Gardens Of Babylon while last season had Spring Juvenile runner-up Wolf Prince hold Fred Winter winner Aramax in third. This season's renewal is set to have the largest field and could also be the strongest one to date. All of the declared runners have won races, five of them are undefeated, and two have ran in graded company. Youmdor is the standout on Irish form, but Gordon Elliott and Gavin Cromwell also introduce a pair of French winners with the former's representative having his form boosted at Newbury recently. These three along with Awkwafina, hold entries in the Grade One Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Fairyhouse is one of the less demanding tracks in the country and the average winning DIs for juveniles of 1.20 median, 1.27 mean would attest to this premise. The clear round rate of 97.78% is the third highest in Ireland, and the record of favourites and odds-on shots is close to average. The going is currently heavy and though it looks to be dry before tomorrow evening, there is heavy rain forecast overnight.

                            Triumph odds
                            Youmdor 18/1
                            Autumn Evening 50/1
                            Teahupoo 50/1
                            Druid's Altar 100/1

                            Fred Winter odds
                            Teahupoo 25/1
                            Autumn Evening 33/1

                            Alexei Vronsky bg Padraig Roche f6-1-0 (68) 71 j3-1-0 (-) 107 105
                            Power (Fasliyev){11-d}(3.00) 0.5 Maria Padilla 7th 3YO Maiden Hurdle, Thurles 2013
                            Alexei Vronsky began his 2020 campaign with a win in a Roscommon handicap off 62, end ended it with a win in a Punchestown maiden on his third hurdles outing. He had the best hurdles form going into a weak contest for the venue with a ten length fourth to Perry Owens at Galway, and an eighteen length sixth at Fairyhouse behind Jeff Kidder. He jumped well on each occasion before his attempts to close wore thin in the closing stages. Ridden more positively, he put in a decent round at Punchestown which only began to loosen in the latter stages. Prominent throughout, he took the lead after the penultimate flight. Steadying into the last with a clear advantage, he had enough in reserve to hold off the challenge of the runner up. He did not have to improve on his previous hurdling form to win, and while the race has produced a winner which looked unlikely at the time, he still would prefer a much sounder surface to what he might encounter on Saturday.

                            Autumn Evening chg Mrs John Harrington f4-0-2 (78) 78 j2-1-0 (-) 122 128
                            Tamayuz (Manduro){1-t}(1.25) 2/1 Menelaus 1st Handicap Hurdle (98), Towcester 2007
                            First appearing on the racecourse in late August, Autumn Evening followed a pair of reasonable outings with two successive third place finishes at Navan and the Curragh. He was sent off a well backed 5/4 favourite on his hurdling debut at Cork last month and obliged in pleasing fashion. A solid stamp of a horse, he was always racing prominently and jumped nicely for the most part. He got in slightly close to three out but travelled smoothly to the penultimate flight where he jumped into a slender lead. He cruised towards the final flight but an untidy leap saw him skid on landing and lose some momentum. Nevertheless, he only needed a hands and heels ride to regain superiority and carried a length advantage over the line. The form of the race has worked out moderately at this juncture, and Autumn Evening failed to build on his success in the Grade Two on Boxing Day. Unfancied in the market beforehand, his jumping profile was much the same as at Cork as he was slightly untidy at the first, got in close to the second, skewed over the fourth and, saving his worst until the end, flattened the last which cost him several strides worth of momentum. Nevertheless, he was still beaten entirely on merit and while he would still be an above average sort, this is very much an above average contest. Though his place claims are not slender, he may find at least a couple too strong and his yard is not in flying form at the moment. Incidentally, Jessica Harrington did run Got Trumped to finish fourth in this contest prior to a tilt at the Fred Winter hurdle.

                            Druid's Altar bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f5-1-2 (86) 79 j3-1-0 (-) 121 126
                            Mastercraftsman (Sadler's Wells){13-c}(1.20) 0.5 Waterlord 4th Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle (G2), Haydock 2018
                            An above average sort on the flat, Druid's Altar was a commanding winner on his hurdles debut in a gruelling contest at Punchestown, albeit one which has not worked out brilliantly. He went off too quickly for his own good next time at Fairyhouse when fading behind Zanahiyr, and was another unfancied in the Boxing Day Grade Two. He led once again but did so under a very tight grip, and though he was still keen, it was fairly mild in nature. He steadied slightly going into the third and fifth but jumped fine otherwise and though headed and dropped from the turn into the straight, he was more outpaced than tired. From a form perspective, this was a slight improvement on his Punchestown effort, but he is becoming rather exposed and another trip around Fairyhouse looks unlikely to suit. Joseph O'Brien has been in good form recently, and he sent Gardens Of Babylon to finish second in this two years ago. However, this is a tough assignment and unlike his predecessor, Druid's Altar is not entered in the Spring Juvenile.

                            Josh d'Id bg Gavin Cromwell j1-1-0 (-) - -
                            Joshua Tree (Okawango){26}(0.63) 0.5 Ladygaya 2nd 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Mont-de-Marsan 2015
                            https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/josh-did (yellow, orange sleeves, orange cap, noseband)
                            Daniela Mele has supplied just one horse to the division thus far in the fairly useful Stratagem, and Josh d'Id could be another useful recruit. His sole run to date came in an ordinary conditions event at Saint Brieuc in mid November. Initially steady and untidy at his jumps, he lost his prominent position along the back of the second circuit. However, his jumping improved by the time they reached the final lap and he pursued the clear leader before taking his place on the turn for home. From there, he did not have to be ridden hard and though he was green, he ran out a comfortable twelve length winner. Being a race of its nature at a provincial venue, it probably took little winning. Nevertheless, the runner-up had previously been beaten a shorter distance by Houx Gris at Auteuil, and the thirty-eight length fourth won next time at Nantes. Sire Joshua Tree is on his second crop in the division and though he has yet to be tested in Britain or Ireland, he has done well in France thus far and already has a listed winner to his name. The immediate damline has only minor winners, but leading juvenile Don Lino appears at 4/2, with useful sorts Olofi and Gumball at 4/3. Gavin Cromwell has a healthy winners to runners rate of 25% although he is without a win from eighteen runs this term and his recent form is modest. Nevertheless, Josh d'Id is clearly held in some regard as he is entered for the Spring Juvenile, a race the trainer has had just three runners in Jer's Girl, Espoir d'Allen, and Wolf Prince who won this contest last season. Incidentally, he is also the only JP McManus owned horse who holds an entry. A compelling recruit to the division, Josh d'Id would be a most compelling contender in any ordinary contest. However, this is a strong race of its type and while his immaturity last time is not a major concern, the form of his stable tempers enthusiasm. Furthermore, the contest he won in France was run over eighteen furlongs which would not be conducive to elucidating the suitability of a sharp venue like Fairyhouse.

                            Teahupoo bg Gordon Elliott j1-1-0 (-) 121 -
                            Masked Marvel (Sassanian){12-g}(0.50) 1/0 Droit d'Aimer 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Enghien 2010

                            Teahupoo has had just the one race to date, which came in the Prix Emilius on Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris day in mid-October. Although fairly late in the season for juvenile imports, the newcomers' contest has featured several who would join British and Irish yards including 2011 winner Balder Succes, 2012 victor Rolling Star, and last season's runner-up Solo. Teahupoo started in a prominent position, but was baulked at the first by a rival jumping across him and he dropped back to midfield. Though impeded again at the second, he cruised up to settle behind the leader ahead of the final circuit. Travelling strongly into the straight, he jumped into the lead at the last and though his running against the rail helped his cause, he still ran on strongly to run out a length and a quarter winner. Despite suffering interference in the early stages, Teahupoo jumped very well with his getting slightly close to the seventh being hardly worth a mention. The form has been boosted in no uncertain terms, with runner-up Good Ball winning on his debut for Paul Nicholls at Newbury, and third placed Haut les Coeurs was a twelve length winner next time out. Masked Marvel has a solid record thus far in the division, and along with the dam winning her first three starts over hurdles, Prix Rush winner Kanto (4/1) and the classy juvenile Top Notch (4/3) also appear in the pedigree. The Leenders family were responsible for Gordon Elliott's Anniversary Hurdle runner-up Clarcam, and though the stable is already saturated with talent, Teahupoo could be yet another exciting recruit. Furthermore, he already holds an entry for the Spring Juvenile, and though the yard usually has a scattergun approach to this contest, it has won two of the three renewals from six runners, Teahupoo is the trainer's sole charge here. However, similar to Josh d'Id, the Prix Emilus is also run over eighteen furlongs and again, Gordon Elliott has not been firing at his usual high standard.

                            Youmdor bg Willie Mullins f8-2-4 (82.5) 83 j1-1-0 (-) 133 141
                            Youmzain (Kentucky Dynamite){2-s}(0.89) 3/1 Attiki Oddo 2nd Handicap Hurdle, Enghien 2012

                            Starting his career with Freddie Head, Youmdor finished first or second in all of his five starts following a switch to handicaps. He broke his duck on his handicap debut just before Christmas 2019 at Chantilly where he produced a very late burst to grab victory on the line. He was twice runner-up at the same venue in the new year and filled that position for a third time in a ten furlong Saint-Cloud handicap in May, finishing late once again. His spell of seconditis was ended last time out however when he ran out a neck winner of a "Quinte+" handicap over ten furlongs at Deauville at the end of May. A half-brother to Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere third Anodor, Youmdor's pedigree is not inundated with hurdlers with the closest relative being handicapper Attiki Oddo at 3/1 (Burning Victory shows up at 5/4). Nevertheless, he was chosen to follow in some illustrious hoofprints as he was introduced in the same Gowran maiden used by Willie Mullins for Buiseness Sivola, Diakali and Footpad. Very strongly fancied in the market beforehand, he made a very striking impression despite imperfect early jumping. He steadied on his approach to the first couple of flights, going big over the first and close into the second. However, while he got quite close to the fourth and the penultimate flights, and could not be described as particularly neat or swift, his jumping did improve once he learned his job and he put in his best jump when getting ridden into the last. Tracking the leaders throughout, Youmdor eased into the lead after two out and after a clean jump at the last, extended his advantage to sixteen lengths at the line. The only encouragement from the jockey came in the request for a good jump at the last and it would be a stretch to suggest that Youmdor was even shaken up. He treated his rivals with utter contempt and while the runner-up has not been seen since, the third and fourth have each continued their progressive form by running creditably in maidens at Limerick and Fairyhouse. Already a winner on good and heavy, the only quibble is that he will need to improve his jumping. Should he become more fluent, which is a reasonable expectation, then Youmdor could be a very serious horse and unlike French recruits, the Mullins yard is in good health at the moment.

                            Awkwafina bf S Curling f6-0-1 (64) 72 j1-1-0 (-) 113 113
                            Kyllachy (Muhtathir){1-l}(1.33) 2/1 Lone Ranger 3rd Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2013
                            After placing third in a Leopardstown maiden for Jack Davison, and running without disgrace in a soft ground Naas handicap off 69, Awkwafina changed hands for €8,500 at the Goffs Autumn Online Sale. She joined a Sam Curling whose only previous juvenile hurdler prior to Boxing Day was unplaced at Down Royal November 2011.
                            Her dam is a full-sister to maiden hurdle placed Lone Ranger and is herself, out of a half-sister to Prix Tanerko winner Baguette Magique. However, sire Kyllachy has a lamentable record in the division and since 2008/09, had failed to produce a winning juvenile from twenty-four offspring. That was until Awkwafina caused a 100/1 upset at Limerick. It was reported afterwards that Awkwafina had schooled and worked well and apart from skewing at the second, she put in a clean round on her hurdling debut. Setting off in the rear, she moved towards the midfield on entering the back stretch and made steady headway to turn for home among the leading group. She briefly led approaching the penultimate flight where she was outjumped, but regained the lead going over the last and was able to repel the challenge of Palm Beach to win by a neck. She clearly has the aptitude for the game and her performance happened to be the joint highest rated achieved by an Irish filly before Riviere d'Etel appeared on New Year's Eve. Being that the next five all had solid chances and were a long way clear of the remainder, it would be unfair to dismiss this as a fluke and although it remains to be seen if she can repeat this showing, she may be a fair recruit to the division. Furthermore, with her sex allowance, her win leaves her with no more than half a stone to find on most of these. While she still would be a surprise winner in this company, she is not an absolute certainty to finish last.

                            Merry Poppins grf J Motherway j1-1-0 (-) 102 106
                            Authorized (Peintre Celebre){1-w}(0.68) 2/1 In On The Act 3rd Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Plumpton 2006
                            From an undefeated filly whose sire has a lamentable record but with a respectable damline, to one with a poor damline but is also a daughter of an outstanding stallion in the sphere. Merry Poppins made her racecourse debut at Tipperary in mid-August, and started the day at 33/1 before halving in price before the off. It was said that she had schooled well and that transpired to be true as the only semblance of an error came when slightly steady going into the first. Merry Poppins was also as much a beneficiary of a brilliantly patient ride as she was a good jumper. Her willing attitude in the battle to the line was also important to her success as she threw herself into every stride to fend off Gavin Cromwell's Differentiate. The runner-up was beaten in a flat handicap on his only subsequent run, but third placed Sweet Sixteen was beaten a similar distance at Punchestown behind Duffle Coat, Crassus and Scholastic and the front three were nearly forty lengths clear of the remainder. Though Merry Poppins is coming back after a long layoff, and her form is largely unquantifiable, she is now in the same ownership as Teahupoo and Rachael Blackmore is a notable booking. Furthermore, her ability to jump, battle and handle soft will serve her well.

                            Strong prospects
                            1. Youmdor
                            Reasonable prospects
                            2. Teahupoo
                            3. Josh d'Id
                            Feasible prospects
                            4. Merry Poppins
                            5. Awkwafina
                            Moderate prospects
                            6. Autumn Evening
                            7. Druid's Altar
                            Negligible prospects
                            8. Alexei Vronsky

                            Originally posted by Istabraq View Post

                            Yes K they did but it lost all credibility when Coneygree was forced to withdraw by the starter on vets advice leading to a war of words between the Bradstocks and Plumpton officials who no doubt had some influence over the vet...
                            Ah yes, I had forgotten about that.

                            Originally posted by Kevloaf View Post
                            Haha, now I've not had a few beers, I do recognise the name Jair du Cochet, (I should have said it out loud last night rather than just reading it!) the only horse to beat Best Mate is his claim to fame? Best Mate is before my time though, to me Jim Culloty was just an average and 'random' trainer, I didn't know he'd ridden a Gold Cup winner until he's trained a festival winner

                            I remember watching that season and the jockey being at absolute pains to settle Peace and Co, probably Barry, trying to get cover in a really small field. It was quite an exciting race to be fair, I just got carried away with Beltor
                            One of four along with Wahiba Sands, Beef Or Salmon and Florida Pearl. Jair du Cochet is probably well remembered for failing to win the RSA due to a very ill-judged ride, but he also had a snug way of jumping fences which was either the most beautiful and majestic thing imaginable, or a complete horror show. I don't believe I have seen one like him since.

                            By the by, did you know that Jonjo O'Neill was pretty useful in the saddle back in the day?

                            Comment


                            • I knew Jonjo must have been good at something once upon a time, because it's certainly not training winners.

                              ZING. Have that Jonjo! Out for the count. I can hearhim now, looking up at me...."how many winners have you trained ?"... Doesn't matter Jonjo, you don't need to be a chef to know the Vegan Suprise tastes good!

                              Comment


                              • Oddly enough, the last couple of LUCKY 9 VEGAN MEGA BOXES have been pretty disappointing. I might try one more before I head back down south but if that fails to redeem itself then I can no longer call myself an advocate for same.

                                The skewered beancurd in satay sauce from Red Dragon in Glossop is pretty good, but the name is not as amusing as LUCKY 9 VEGAN MEGA BOX

                                If the next LUCKY 9 VEGAN MEGA BOX fails to deliver, what about something like "Juvenile hurdler expert - token vegan"? That way, when the Grand National comes around and the antis crawl from under their hemp yurts to gather the masses of fickle, hamburger munching virtue signallers, you can be all "Horse racing can't be cruel... our juvenile hurdler expert is a vegan!"

                                Obviously, if the LUCKY 9 VEGAN MEGA BOX does redeem itself then nothing needs to be changed...

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