Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

[Kevloaf]

Hahaha, fantastic.

[Istabraq]

I had a good 2 mins looking at that image and still can’t tell whether that’s an uneaten meal or a meal that’s been eaten and thrown up...

[Kotkijet]

Tomorrow's juvenile has been a regular fixture on Sandown's Tolworth card, although its winners' seasonal RPR tends to be a few pounds lower than that of the average type at the course. This is not to say that it does not feature reasonable types as the contest has was won by 2015 Chatteris Fen winner Arabian Revolution, and 2017 Victor Ludorum winner Don Bersy. Nevertheless, nothing from this race has gone on to be competitive in pattern company. This year's edition would probably be of a similar standard as while the field contains winners from bumpers and hurdles in France along with some fair types from the flat with questionable hurdling experience. An undulating, galloping track, its winning DIs of 0.97 median and 1.22 mean indicate that it is a testing circuit at the best of times, and the heavy going will place further emphasis on stamina. The clear round rate of 97.37% is one of the fairest in the country, although it can be somewhat trickier for newcomers. Odds on favourites have only a 55% strike rate and the median winning starting price of 4/1 is only higher at Cheltenham for British courses with five or more races which should deter analysts from complacency.

Hystery Bere bg Tom Symonds f3-0-0 (67.1) 56 j5-1-2 (134.2) 117
Pedro The Great (Mystery Storm){5-i}(1.00) 0.5 Chabal'ozor PU 4YO Conditions Hurdle, Auteuil 2013

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hystery-bere

Finishing down the field in three outings as a two-year-old, Hystery Bere was one of the outsides on his hurdling debut at Compiegne in a race won by Quilixios. Though he was towards the rear of the field, he was still in touch when giving his rider no chance of maintaining the partnership three from home. Following a respectable ten length fourth to Baladin de Mesc at Angers, he twice finished runner-up in conditions events. At Senonnes, he jumped untidily in what was a fairly moderate contest, but after a five week break, he handled a step up in class at Le Lion-d'Angers with merit. His jumping was as good as it had been to date, and while he found Blackiron six lengths too good, the winner beat Siroco Jo next time conceding seven kilos, and the remainder were upwards of nince lengths behind. Returning to the venue three weeks later, Hystery Bere finally got off the mark where, save for getting close to the fourth, he capped off another neat round of jumping to run out a decisive eight length winner. Third placed Harrisburg is a subsequent winner currently rated 136.4, but the rest of the field have done little to bolster the form. Four of Jo?l Boisnard's five previous graduates into the sphere failed to win, but the one who did, Song For Someone, is developing into a very talented hurdler for Hystery Bere's connections. Tom Symonds has a solid record in this division, and he also saddled the fairly useful Don Bersy to win the 2017 renewal of this contest on his second start. Just one of his fifteen juveniles has won first time out, but Hystery Bere has been given positive mentions in public. Pedro The Great has not had any juvenile hurdlers outside of France, but Hystery Bere has already shown himself a proficient jumper. However, his latest three efforts all came on good ground which will be a world apart from what he is set to encounter at Sandown. While Pedro The Great won the Phoenix Stakes on soft, and his half-brother Footstepsinthesand won the Kilavullan Stakes on the same ground, his sire Henrythenavigator was much better on a sounder surface and it is a trait often passed onto their progeny by the aforementioned. Hystery Bere is a very intriguing recruit for an in-form trainer, but it is difficult to ignore the highly conspicuous ground concerns.

Cloud Thunder grg Heather Main f7-0-4 (76) 82 j2-0-0 (-) 78 85
Poet's Voice (Smarty Jones){22-d}(1.29) 2/2 Uncle Muf PU Maiden Hurdle, Southwell 2015
Although Cloud Thunder failed to win in seven starts on the flat, and ended his first spell with a series of seconds, he ran to a fair level and could not be accused of being ungenuine. However, he was less convincing in his attitude and aptitude on his hurdling debut in the Summit Hurdle, and was decidedly capricious six days ago at Kempton when running out when passing the stands, and taking Warranty with him. Cloud Thunder's flat ability is not negligible, but he does not look a safe conveyance over hurdles and the yard has gone two months short of a decade since its last hurdles winner.

Hudson de Grugy bg Gary Moore FrB 4-1-1 j1-0-1 (-) 112 113
Falco (April Night){u}(3.44) 2/1 Rose de Grugy 2nd Grand Prix de la Ville de Nice (G3), Cagne-Sur-Mer 2013

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hudson-de-grugy

Gary Moore habitually sends his best juvenile hurdlers to Sandown, and Hudson de Grugy made his UK debut in the same introductory hurdle used by the yard for Goshen and Sussex Ranger. Hudson de Grugy ran four times in French bumpers, finishing unplaced on his first two outings, snatching second behind subsequent Grade 3 winner Hallatienne at Les Sables d'Olonne, before making all for a facile win at Le Gacilly in July. Although the form of that win is much of a muchness, the runner-up on that occasion did win next time out. He since left Adrien Fouassier to join a Gary Moore yard that won this race in 2013 with Knight Of Pleasure. Hudson de Grugy's most notable relative is the yard's top chaser Sire de Grugy, who appears at 3/2 on the damline. However, that is not the only winner in the family as half-brother Django de Grugy won a chase, the dam has three winning siblings, the third dam won three cross country chases while champion of the late eighties Oteuil (5/1) and 1997 Prix Jean Stern winner French Kankan (5/2) appear further back. He more than doubled in price in the ring ahead of his course and distance debut, from an opening 15/2 to 16/1 at flagfall. Prominent from the outset, he was encouraged into his flights which appeared to be a necessity as an absence of instruction at the fifth saw him get it completely wrong. He was still in contention approaching the last, but a blunder at the final obstacle gave the winner an advantage that proved critical. Hudson de Grugy was still able to maintain his lead over the remaining rivals and he emerged from the contest with plenty of potential. While on balance, he has probably achieved less than Hystery Bere, his course and distance form on heavy ground, along with a fitness edge, should be to his advantage.

Letter At Dawn bg Nigel Hawke f1-0-0 (-) 50
Dawn Approach (Galileo){19-b}(0.68) 2/1 Roches Cross 1st Gran Corsa Siepi Nazionale Hurdle (G1), Pisa 2017
Historic Heart and Peat Moss have both won this season for Nigel Hawke, having initially been under the care of Jim Bolger. Letter At Dawn is another such horse, although in the interim, he finished down the field in a Curragh maiden in early November for Brendan Duke. While a big horse who settled nicely in the rear, he never made any real impression on the race and was beaten by just under twenty lengths. Dawn Approach has yet to have any winners in the sphere from eight horses, but Galileo is a decent damsire and along with being out of a half-sister to a Grade One winning hurdler in Italy, is also related to useful jumpers Circus Star and Pole Star at 3/2. The trip and the ground should not be concerns, but more is needed in the way of proven ability and the yard's runners, whose first time out rate is just 4.55%, typically benefit from experience.

Warranty bg Harry Whittington f6-1-1 (68) 67 j2-0-0 (-) 96 100
Authorized (Giant's Causeway{16-c}(0.84) 1/1 Fally Jem 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2018
On his final start for Mark Johnston, Warranty won a moderate handicap at Beverley back in July. Lowly though that race was, the form has worked out well and while his racing on a better strip of ground may have enhanced his superiority, he still did it very easily and it was enough to warrant an auction price of ?36,000. His jumps debut came at Wetherby in November and after being available at 9/1 in the morning, was backed down to 5/1 at the off. However, it was clear from the outset that he was likely to struggle as a string of sloppy and hesitant jumps saw him shuffle back to the rear of the field. While he attempted to make headway on the leaders, he never looked like moving into a challenging position and his sole reasonable jump at the penultimate flight was followed by a steady bunny-hop at the last. It would be difficult to assess his ability in isolation from his jumping as it was the latter which suffocated the former. By Authorized and closely related to dual three-year-old listed chase winner The Revenant, Warranty is well bred for the discipline and he will not want for stamina so it would be too soon to write him off. The way he jumped the first at Kempton six days ago was more encouraging, but that effort was cut short as he was carried out by Cloud Thunder on passing the stands. In the preview prior to that contest, I wrote that he might be better suited by a small field affair on a stiff track in testing ground. This is precisely what he will encounter at Sandown and on a track where the results can be muddling, Warranty might find himself being underestimated, even if the yard could be in better form.

Strong prospects
1. Warranty
Reasonable prospects
2. Hudson de Grugy
3. Hystery Bere
Moderate/Negligible prospects
4. Letter At Dawn
5. Cloud Thunder

I had a good 2 mins looking at that image and still can't tell whether that's an uneaten meal or a meal that's been eaten and thrown up...

Just because something looks a bit rank, doesn't mean it won't feel absolutely amazing...

[Istabraq]

Just because something looks a bit rank, doesn't mean it won't feel absolutely amazing...

That could almost have been a 1.45am nightclub moto from the 80s only not talking food menus.

Keep up the good work here Kotkijet, an invaluable thread (minus the D grade kebab photos)

[Kotkijet]

Forgot to review a couple of handicap performances from Boxing Day, so this with the proceeding batch of reviews should bring us up to the 27th I think.

Bourbali 26/12/2020 Wincanton 1m7?f Handicap Hurdle (104)
Bourbali's racecourse debut came at Plumpton in September where he was narrowly denied a winning start by Peat Moss. He shaped well enough next time at Chepstow, but following a six week break, he disappointed in what should have been more suitable conditions at Exeter where he jumped and travelled lead before fading late on. He pulled hard in the early stages, but was able to settle better before too long. However, his jumping was not as good as it can be as he made a blunder at the second, was untidy over the next, steadied slightly at the fourth, went through the top of the fifth, and steadied while failing to get high enough at two out. Leading or disputing for much of the contest, he was still in contention turning into the straight but lost touch shortly afterwards. From a form perspective, this essentially matches his Exeter performance, and while he was superior to Peat Moss here, Bourbali is not progressing as much as could have been expected from his earlier outings. He has since been dropped to 101 which might become a generous mark, possibly over a sterner test. 95

Peat Moss 26/12/2020 Wincanton 1m7?f Handicap Hurdle (103)
Peat Moss ran in the first juvenile hurdle of the season, and posted his best performance when winning at Plumpton in September. He was making his seventh start over hurdles, and fourth in the handicap company where he was not disgraced last time at Doncaster over half a mile further. He jumped fine on that occasion, and while there was a slight regression as he veered left at the first and took off long at the fourth, this was not a poor round of hurdling. However, from a racing perspective, this was his worst showing since August as he never left the rear of the field and finished the race a thirty-five length twelfth of fourteen finishers. He was dropped to a mark of 99 which could be a fair mark over further and on a sounder surface. 81

LEOPARDSTOWN 27th December
Preview review
The front two were the correct two but in the wrong order, Ilmig's prospects were enhanced by the conditions, Dark Voyager, Flying Scotsman and Charlie Bassett were compromised by the rain, and Trezibond was given feasible prospects for a newcomer. The only concern regarding the preview is that French Aseel (who was a tissue 16/1) may have been given strong prospects were it not for withdrawals. On the one hand, a series of withdrawals might indicate a difficult in training and a diminished level of fitness. Conversely, it may also indicate that the trainer thinks a lot of the horse and would not allow it to compete until it was completely ready. A case repeated at Wetherby by Hacker Des Places. Otherwise, this was a satisfactory preview.

Race review
Previous renewals of this race have produced four Grade One juvenile wins, a further twelve Grade One places, and six wins in other graded contests since 2005. This year's edition lacked somewhat in depth, but the winner was a very impressive one and a few in behind could also be competitive in pattern company during the second half of the season. The pace was a solid one and apart from some chaos at the first two flights which resulted in a couple of unseats, there were no hard luck stories insofar as the protagonists were concerned. However, the winning time was 3.6 seconds slower than the hanicap hurdle, 4.6 seconds slower than the Grade One novice, and despite Zanahiyr's race the previous day being ran at a snail's pace with two additional hurdles to jump, it was still 2.2 seconds slower than that contest. Furthermore, it was also the slowest of all bar one of the previous ten renewals and while this might be indicitive of a lack of class, it more reveals that the ground was deeper than the soft, yielding in places suggests. The winner won the race with impetuous ease from a strung out field consisting of acceptably placed horses. Though it would be an exaggeration to describe it as top class form, there would be little reason to suggest it is anything but reliable and above average.

French Aseel won one of his nine starts in France for Philippe Decouz, but earned an equivalent mark of 82.4 and despite never racing beyond a mile, shaped as though a trip would suit. Heavy ground would also be beneficial and the skies opened nicely ahead of his delayed Irish debut. He had been entered in earlier races, and was withdrawn from an intended debut at Cork with a stone bruise. Nevertheless, he was well supported from double digit figures the previous day and started the race as 7/2 favourite. Tracking the leaders throughout, he was keen early and was still taking a grip towards the end of the back straight. His jumping was not impressive either as he was very big over the first, steadied and got in close to the second, was close again the fourth, big over the fifth and close again into what would be the last. He was left in front after leaving the back after the leader faded, and without so much as being shaken up, extended his advantage to twenty-two lengths on the line. For a performance so visually impressive, it is worth probing for negatives in order to gain perspective. Firstly, the winning time, however it is cut, is poor and while French Aseel won on the bridle, it is not guaranteed he would have found the several seconds needed to make it more respectable. Secondly, the way he travelled and jumped were not characteristic of a top class horse. And thirdly, he beat a hurdling newcomer, a horse who already needs four miles, a racecourse debutant, and a succession of horses who did not go in the ground. All of this notwithstanding, there is time for him to improve his jumping and travelling, the experience will do him good, and the form would still be in the top-five performances seen this season. While he still needs to prove himself against more substantial opposition, and on a sounder surface, French Aseel is still an exciting recruit to the division and will attract plenty of interest wherever he next appears. 137

Coltor only made his racecourse debut at the end of August, but was not disgraced on his first two outings at Navan, and won on his third start at Navan over eleven furlongs on soft ground. A rare juvenile hurdler for Dermot Weld, he is bred to flourish in the sphere being a son of Free Eagle, and a relative of Limini, Call My Guest and Vintage Crop. He was not unbacked in the market and started the race sixth in the betting at 6/1. Settling well early on, he was held up in the rear and still had some nine horses ahead of him leaving the back. He made headway down the side and would reach the front of the chasing group at the elbow. He had no chance of catching the runaway winner, but in his absence, would have been a comfortable six length winner himself. His round of jumping was one of the cleanest in the field, and the only discernible flaw was where he very slightly skewed and pecked on landing at the third. The distance by which he was beaten puts a dampener on the performance from a form perspective, and he may be seen to better effect with an even sterner stamina test in due course. Nevertheless, it was a very commendable debut effort on his first run for eighty-four days, and he has set a solid foundation for his new career. 112

Ilmig began his racing career in October but he already managed a win by his second outing and was a promising second on his hurdling debut at Punchestown the following month. He failed to justify odds-on favouritism at Fairyhouse a fortnight prior to this outing, but was sent off second favourite to make amends here. There has been little cause for complaint in his hurdling thus far and apart from steadying and getting close to the second, jumped well once again. Held up in midfield, he moved to within a length of the lead approaching the last. However, he lacked the acceleration to maintain his place and would need most of the long run-in to regain his lost positions. Ilmig is probably more consistent than appears on the surface as he does not run bad races. Rather, and despite having an American pedigree in which includes Breeder's Cup Filly And Mare Sprint winner Covfefe at 2/2, and champion sprinter Green Desert at 4/2, he has a distinct lack of pace. It is also worth noting that the yard's juveniles rarely do well this time of year, and the stable has not been in good form in any case which would also paint this performance in a more sympathetic light. Ilmig is certainly talented enough to win a race of his own, and could also be a productive sort beyond the juvenile division. 106

Trebizond initially cost Godolphin 300,000 guineas as a yearling, but this close relative of Palace Pier never ran on the flat and joined Henry de Bromhead for nearly a tenth of the original price in September. Unraced newcomers generally have a poor record in the sphere. Nevertheless, Golden Horn has made a solid start as a sire of juveniles, and with Rachael Blackmore on board, Trebizond was sent off third favourite at 5/1. He was fresh early without being worryingly keen, but he made a tremendous blunder at the first and skewed in mid air at the third. The remainder of his hurdlers were taken well enough and having initially been ridden conservatively, he stayed on at one pace on the run-in to reach his best position inside the final half-furlong. Though a long way behind the winner, he will have learned a lot from this experience and can improve sufficiently to be competitive in ordinary company. 103

Flying Scotsman landed a double at the Galway Festival, and ended his first stint on the flat with a mark of 87. However, he drifted from short prices on his first two outings and went from 7/2 to 11/2 in the ring ahead of this contest. His jumping has lacked assurance in the past and there was little discernible improvement third time out. He kicked his legs out at the first, steadied into the second, was slightly untidy over the fourth and fifth before steadying again into the last. Though he was certainly close enough going into the last, he was unable to find anything on the run-in and finished beaten by thirty-seven lengths. The first time application of a tongue tie was of no real assistance and the ground would have been unsuitable in any case. He has come nowhere near reaching his flat mark, but he could emerge as a well treated sort. Particular on dryer ground. 97

Charlie Bassett has now gone thirteen races without a win, but he is a consistent type as well as a reasonable jumper. Apart from not getting particularly high at the fourth, he put in another acceptable round and was disputing second place just before the elbow. However, if anything can be held against Charlie Basset, then it would be a lack of stamina and it was this deficiency which saw him fade quickly in the closing stages. He is capable of better but will need a much sharper test to be seen to better effect. 96

Ahaziah is rated just 37 on the flat, and though he improved between his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse and his latest effort at Cork, he still had plenty to find. He was big over the first at it was the same case here, but beyond that, he posted an adequate round of jumping. Initially tracking the leaders, he lost his position towards the end of the back. However, once he was absorbed by the pack, he did not really lose any further ground. While finishing seventh off 125/1 implies he outran his odds, this performance was no stronger than that of his second outing. He is a good stone off this sort of level, but is showing himself a fair type who can be competitive in moderate company. 95

Dark Voyager's second to Zanahiyr looks better with each performance by the former, and it was much the strongest hurdles form brought into this race. He was sent off at 11/10 to break his duck next time at Punchestown, but while he jumped well enough, he stopped quickly and was beaten twenty-two lengths. Some had retained faith in him as while he drifted from 11/4 in the morning, he still started as third third favourite. However, his jumping was not the cleanest it had been as he was steady into the second, close into the fourth, and he dived at the next. Although he was still in a clear second at the top of the straight, he faded quickly from thereon and was eventually beaten forty-one lengths. His stamina and resolve had been debatable going into this race and there was nothing here to alleviate those concerns. He may be rejuvenated by a speedier test or maybe a handicap mark, but his profile is also beginning to look precarious. 94

Iberia is the highest rated flat recruit seen to this point, having earned a triple digit rating when third in the Royal Lodge, and vindicating same in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial on his return in June. Though beating just two home in the Irish Derby and finishing last in a listed race at this venue when last seen in July, even those performances were stronger than anything achieved by the opposition. His joining John Halley instead of Joseph O'Brien dampened his prospects, and he drifted from 15/2 in the morning to 20/1 at the start. Racing in the rear, he was slow at the third and was already getting reminders at that stage. Nevertheless, he still jumped respectably and was moving into contention with intent when getting badly baulked on landing at the last. This effectively put paid to his race and he made no more contribution beyond passing beaten horses. Taken at face value, this was a disappointing effort. However, he is the closest it gets to an unlucky horse in this particular contest as it is feasible he could have improved several places but for being badly impeded at a critical stage. 88

Next In Line won twice on the flat and earned a rating of 80 in the process. However, her breeding is not especially conducive to her new vocation and the trainer has no winners in the division. A quietly fancied outsider, she was hampered at the first, got in slightly close to the next and veered left at the fifth. Kept in mid-division, she never got into the body of the pack and would come home in her own time. Not a disgraceful introduction, not an encouraging one either. 80

Hisnameis Mrdevitt is another dual winner from the flat, but had not shown good form on his latest three starts and other than being a distant relative of Min, is not bred for the division either. He doubled in price from 40/1 in the morning, to 80/1 at the off, and his cause was not helped by getting baulked at the first. He then steadied into the next, got in close to the third and jumped left at the fifth. He managed to join the rear of the pack turning for home and kept up for about a furlong, but would fade in the closing stages. 83

Loved Out began as 5/4 favourite ahead of his hurdling debut at Punchestown, but it was by dint of the low quality in opposition. Had he been ridden more ambitiously, it is possible he may have won first time over hurdles. However, his defeat can more be attributed to his poor jumping and his round was little better here. Always in the rear, he was big and skewed over the first few obstacles before developing a habit of steadying into his flights. Though he kept on to some degree on the long run-in, he was still over twenty lengths behind the third at the line. He is capable of better and while he was subsequently beaten twenty-seven lengths back at Punchestown on new year's eve, he was very well backed to finish third of the sixteen finishers. 81

Pushover achieved nothing better than moderate form on the flat, and also had stamina concerns coming into the race. She started completely unfancied and never left the rear of the field before finishing tailed off. Save for jumping left at the first, her hurdling was fine, but there is little else to be drawn from this outing. 24

Royal Marksman's best effort from seven flat outings was a third off 45 at Dundalk over seven furlongs in October. His sire is not likely to make an impact in the sphere and the trainer has yet to saddle a winner in the division. Starting at 150/1, Royal Marksman led from the start and developed a lead for half a dozen lengths. He was very big over the first, also gave the second some air, and was very slow over the third which cost him his advantage. He regained some of his advantage along the back, and was still in front at the beginning of the home turn, but he was a tired horse by that stage and would weaken dramatically to finish hopelessly tailed off. 0

French Asset has the flat ability and the right trainer to do well in the sphere. However, he achieved very little on his hurdling debut, and managed even less in subsequent starts. Lacking fluency on his first two outings, he was also poor here as he veered left at the first, got in close to the third, and was slow over the fourth. 0

Complete Fiction is not unfeasibly bred for a hurdling career and has joined a solid trainer in the division. However, his flat form is no better than moderate and while he jumped the first two flights reasonably well, he was soon getting reminders whereafter his jumping deteriorated. He was getting detached before leaving the back and finished the race almost two-hundred lengths behind the winner. 0

Firstman won twice on the flat in France and while generally finishing nearer last than midfield in four runs for his new yard, was not running abhorrently in the context of this discipline. He was not fancied in the market, but received little luck in any case as he was badly hampered at the first before a loose horse separated Firstman from Peter Carberry at the second. Perversely, this was not an introduction without some promise however as he continued jumping with the rest of the field and while he steadied going into his other flights, the riderless Firstman still passed the post in third position. 0

Poetica's best flat effort for Mark Johnston was a fourth off 58 at Chelmsford, two races before joining the Shark Hanlon yard. Her debut at Cork can be ignored as her saddle slipped at the second and she unseated at the fifth. This effort can also be ignored as she was hampered and unseated at the first. 0

[Kotkijet]

KEMPTON 27th December
Preview review
The strong prospect finished first, although it can not be said for certain if he would have gotten the best of feasible prospect Honneur d'Ajonc had the latter not capitulated at the last. Honneur d'Ajonc made a promising debut at Exeter and although he may have been better suited by the demands of Chepstow than of Kempton, the easing of conditions were in his favour. Her Indoors would finish second by virtue of her noted flat speed which offset her noted poor jumping. Siroco Jo was a disappointment, but he was backward on his French outing and a drift in the market foreshadowed his moderate jumping.

Race review
A race with a history of producing good juveniles, it has continued in this vein since becoming an introductory hurdle in 2016. The latest edition had every potential to be a useful affair and despite Siroco Jo disappointing, the winner and the final flight faller could be decent recruits. The front two approaching the last were clear of the remainder who were headed by benchmarks who while flawed and limited, also set a helpful standard.Despite a quicker early gallop, the winning time was over two seconds slower than that set in the concluding handicap hurdle. Although the ground will have dried through the day and being a Class 3 contest, the juveniles recorded a reasonable time for the division.

Heross Du Seuil came into the race as something of an unknown quantity as he was a comfortable winner of an ordinary AQPS flat race back in August. Nevertheless, he joined a leading yard which does well with his type, and is closely related to Defi du Seuil. Held up towards the rear, he settled well for a fresh and inexperienced horse, and while he was slow and steady at several of his flights, it was not enough to warrant strong trepidation and he also put in a few clean jumps along the way. Making headway to join the front rank turning for home, a steady approach to the penultimate flight cost him a length on the leader. He got to within half a length at the last and, with his rival's capitulation, was left unopposed on the run-in. It is difficult to speculate on whether he would have won had Honneur d'Ajonc stayed on his feet as while his opponent did get first run and Heross du Seuil was going through the gears, the former jumped the last quicker and while the latter was ridden out for much of the run-in, his stride was not lengthening and it took him nearly eighteen seconds to get from the last to the line. Nevertheless, it was still a highly promising introduction to hurdles and with fitness, experience and more fluent jumping, Heross du Seuil can develop into a useful sort. 125

Her Indoors had been destined to become a juvenile hurdler before she developed into a fairly useful sort on the flat, and her being thrown into Listed company on her jumps debut at Aintree was rewarded with an encouraging second. Four hurdles were omitted on that occasion which very probably helped her finish second instead of first as there was much to be desired from her jumping. While she was backed into favouritism, it was unlikely to be based on exceptional schooling reports as she was less than exemplary once again. After a big hop at the first, she steadied into and was close at the second, close again and the fourth and fifth, slow over the sixth, and steady and close over the penultimate flight. She used her flat speed to gain a place on the run-in at Aintree and did so once again here, gaining half-a-dozen lengths after the last to finish second by a half length. An improver on the flat, Her Indoors patently has the ability to win a race and progress beyond this level. However, it is essential that her hurdling improves beforehand. 108

Ambassador bookended his flat career for Richard Fahey with a pair of third placed finishes, and made a respectable start to his hurdling career at Warwick seventeen days earlier. Save for a couple of errors, he posting a decent enough round of jumping, and other than skewing at the first and getting the last wrong, was competent once again. Racing wide behind the leaders, he was on the premises turning in without being able to make a challenge and was weak in the concluding stages of the race. Nevertheless, it was an improved effort from a form perspective and while he is quite limited in his scope, the ability to win an ordinary contest is there. 115

Royaume Uni won on the flat in France for Andre Fabre and is bred to be a capable hurdler. He completely lacked fluency on his British debut at Sandown three weeks earlier, but while he was weak in the market beforehand, posted an improved round of jumping second time out. He was slightly baulked at the first and fifth, but apart from steadying at the fourth and being slow over two out, gave a honest hurdling display. Despite winning over 2900 meters on soft ground at Angers, he finished tired here and may show more when reaching a better standard of fitness. 103

Sarceaux won the second of her three starts for Mikael Delzangles, which came in a provincial race on good ground. While the trainer has already had a large priced winning juvenile this season, Sacreaux went into this race completely unfancied having missed her intended hurdling debut at Aintree on account of the ground. Setting off fairly prominently, she was untidy at the first two and steadied into the fifth and sixth before losing her position on the turn for home. This was not a debut without promise and while she may end up being no better on fair, there are moderate enough races on better ground in which she might be competitive in due course. 92

Alborkan had won two of his last three starts on the flat for Amy Murphy, and despite being purchased by Venetia Williams, has stayed in Newmarket for his hurdling career. While his flat rating of 75 alone is enough to warrant respect in this discipline, his tough attitude made him especially endearing. He went over the first two flights adequately, but his jumping deteriorated away from the stands as he steadied slightly into the third, got in close to the fourth, clipped the top of the fifth and got in especially close to three out where his stride was awkward in its aftermath. Nevertheless, he still moved well enough to briefly go into second on the turn for home, but had nothing else to give from thereon in and would fade in the straight. It is worth noting that while generally a consistent sort, his two worst efforts on the flat came after a break. Having returned here after a sixty-eight day lay-off and demonstrating ability and aptitude in certain stages of this race, it would not be unreasonable to expect him to build on this outing. 98

Sly Minx began her three-year-old campaign well enough with a seventh in a listed race, a second in a Beverley maiden and a win at Catterick in early July. However, she was well beaten on her final two starts for Mick Channon and poor jumping saw her hopelessly tailed off on her hurdling debut at Fontwell. Completely unfancied and keen early here, she was very untidy at the first, skewed badly at the third, went left at the fifth and got in too close to three out. Never leaving the rear, she ultimately finished tailed off. She reportedly lost her near-fore shoe. 29

Siroco Jo split a pair of reasonable types at Clairefontaine in August and would likely have won but for being so inexperienced. Representing a yard which has won this race with good sorts over the years, he started the day at 3/1 but was nearly double that price at the start. Though he settled nicely enough just behing the leaders, he was steady and close at the first two flights, got the fourth flight wrong, tried to jump the road after four out, and was steady again at three out. While still in contention entering the home turn, he was being hard ridden and quickly lost touch prior to pulling up before the penultimate flight. This was obviously a disappointing performance but he should not yet be written off. The first time out strike rate for the yard's French recruits is 34.18% for hurdlers and 24.00% for flat imports. However, while these are impressive figures, Siroco Jo's underperformance is not inherently exacerbated by the trainer's good record as the second time out rates increase to 37.1% and 44.44% respectively. Ex-French Paul Nicholls juveniles beaten first time amount to fifty-two, of which twenty-four won their next start in the division including Anniversary winner All Yours, Finale winner Quel Destin and Fred Winter winner Qualando as well as future talents such as Frodon, Saphir du Rheu and Brampour. This season alone, Viroflay and Hacker des Places are both flat recruits who obliged after disappointing first runs. However, it should also be noted that none of these redeemers were actually pulled up first time so while the statistics offer Siroco Jo some saving grace, he still has to account for his own actions. 0

Jalwan never raced beyond an extended nine furlongs on the flat and there is no indication on breeding that he will make a jumper. Though shorter in the market than stablemate Royaume Uni, Jalwan was still relatively unfancied ahead of his hurdles bow, and first run since August. Held up in the rear, he was untidy over the second and not much better at the third, and began to get detached on the stretch before the turn before pulling up after three out. He reportedly bled through the nose. 0

Warranty was a good winner of a Beverley maiden handicap on his final start for Mark Johnston, a race which worked out better than its description suggests. However, he jumped sloppily and without confidence first time at Wetherby and was beaten nineteen lengths. Running in first time blinkers here, he jumped the first flight well and brushed through the top of the second. That was the end of his examination as he was carried out at the bend shortly afterwards. While it is difficult to assess such a limited performance, the way he jumped the first was encouraging and it will be hoped that the drama does not curtail this improvement. 0

Cloud Thunder finished runner up on his final three flat outings, and was thrown into the deep end on his hurdling debut in Doncaster's Summit Hurdle. Keen in the early stages and was a novicey jumper, he finished that race tired and tailed off. These were calmer waters but his participation was short lived as he made a mess at the first, was better at the second, but chose to run out rather than have anything else to do with the hurdling business. He is not short on flat ability and seemed genuine enough in that sphere. However, his regard for his new profession is dubious. 0

Honneur d'Ajonc had not seen the racecourse prior to his Exeter bow in November, but he travelled well and apart from a few errors, jumped very acceptably before finishing second to Monmiral. His pedigree and style of racing suggested that he may have preferred conditions at Chepstow than here. Nevertheless, he was not short of supporters in the market and made a good impression second time out. Though he was keep early, he jumped quickly and tidily and went into the lead left by the drama at the first turn. This lead, while threatened up the straight by Heross du Seuill, was only relinquished at the last where though he took off well enough, he was unable to get his front feet out in time, consequently knuckling and going arse over tits. Fortunately, he appeared to get up happily enough and though his shins will likely be a bit sore, it will be hoped that his confidence will not be aversely affected. While Honneur d'Ajonc still has a fair amount to learn, he has quickly shown himself a horse with strong potential in terms of ability and aptitude. 125

WETHERBY 27th December
Preview review
The strong prospect was a very long way clear of the sole remaining reasonable prospect, and the sole remaining reasonable prospect was even further clear of the remainder. The task of Hacker Des Places was made considerably easier by the withdrawal of three competitive rivals, and the fact he could jump and go through the ground turned the contest into a formality. Caldwell did not appear to have any issues with the ground and the yard's record at the venue was noted, although so too was his conspicuous headcarriage which translated into a poor round of jumping. Sir Charles Punch lacked conviction in his jumping once again and Danger Money is still some way off showing his better form. Other than erroneously stating that Brian Ellison had two runners in the race due to a late night brain-fart, there is nothing really to revisit and address.

Race review
With the withdrawals of En Couleur, Herbiers and Kings Creek turned this into a one horse race. The going was heavy and there was driving rain throughout the race so conditions were especially demanding. Most of the field did not go through the ground and those who did jumped poorly. The pace was set by the winner and was sufficient to demolish his opponents. The winning time was just a second and a half slower than the earlier novice which is quite laudable given that the aforementioned was somewhat competitive and was not run a heavy shower. The field finished well strung out and in a feasible order, but in strict terms of pounds per length, the form would only really be of interest on the rare instances that they return to running on a ploughed field.

Hacker Des Places finished third to Paros on his debut before winning his own race at Dax in June. He was a well supported favourite on his UK debut at Wincanton, and did not run poorly behind his stablemate. However, in the context of his starting price of 4/9, that performance could only be viewed as a disappointment. He missed a couple of engagements prior to his return to the track, but the patience of the connections was rewarded with an emphatic success. He had been fresh on all three starts to date, which was particularly to his detriment at Wincanton, and was also prone to some sloppy jumping. While he was somewhat keen early on, he settled before too long and his hurdling prior to the straight was fine with his transgressions limited to jumping slightly to his right. He got in close to three out, and rapped the top of the last two, but he was still the best jumper in the race by a considerable margin. Leading throughout and taking the shortest route rather than searching for better ground, his main rival was within a length jumping the third last. That margin doubled without any stimulus from the rider by the penultimate flight, and after being shaken up on the approach to the, the gap extended to well over a dozen lengths and he was pushed out to finish with a superiority of a distance. In the review of Siroco Jo's performance, the record of Paul Nicholls horses who failed to win on their first starts was addressed in detail. Insofar as what happens in the third race of a stable's juvenile who won after a defeat is concerned, one overcorrection is met with another overcorrection as only two of the nineteen qualifiers sustain their redemption. Notwithstanding, the return to heavy ground saw Hacker des Places in a much more favourable light and while rating the performance of such an isolated winner is generally much of a muchness, it would be fair to say that he is not without talent and should continue his progress when facing these conditions. 124

Caldwell first saw the racecourse in late August and was placed on the first two of his three starts for Dermot Weld. The standard of form is perfectly respectable in the context of this discipline and while he was withdrawn on account of heavy ground at Listowel, he was not entirely unsuited by the conditions here. A more conspicuous misgiving from the flat was his peculiar headcarriage and this translated into a very sloppy round of jumping on his hurdles debut. He steadied into the first where he jumped big and to the left, was big and left at the second, steadied and got close to the third, was close and skewed over the fourth, close again into the fifth, clipped the top and stumbled on landing at the sixth (this was his best jump of the race), skewed and went left at the seventh and eighth and was big and skewed over the last. Tracking the leader throughout, he was taken the scenic route and was still in contention at the top of the straight. The futility of his task revealed itself as the race began to wrap up and rather sensibly, he was given nothing harsher than a hands and heels ride and was allowed to come home in his own time with almost fifty lengths in hand over his remaining opponents. Though he was beaten a distance, this was still a promising debut as in the absence of Hacker des Places, he would have been a very impressive winner in spite of the litany of jumping errors. His jumping absolutely needs to improve and he might also benefit from a date with a pair of scissors. Nevertheless, having his first run for over two months, he should be fitter for the experience and if it does not have the impact of draining him too much, he should be competitive in ordinary company. 86

Sir Charles Punch's Achilles heel on the flat was that while he had ability, his propensity to get worked up preventing him from exercising same. Over jumps, he has settled better but instead, has a complete lack of confidence over his hurdles. While the round also featured some untidiness, his penchant for steadying into his hurdles is proving costly and unless this is addressed then this now fifteen race maiden will continue to underachieve. 38

Danger Money finished his flat career for Andrew Oliver with a rating of 92 which is one of the highest seen in the division this season. However, his last two starts in Ireland were regressive and there was a suspicion that he was growing sour. Though not unfancied ahead of his hurdles debut, he showed no sign of a rejuvenation and his jumping left a lot to be desired as he lacked fluency and made several quite bad errors. Although bad jumps debuts from good flat horses can often be forgiven, Danger Money is making a habit of running poorly. 38

Spantik is a dual winner on the flat, including on his penultimate outing at Newcastle in early November where he took a ten furlong handicap off a deflated mark of 61. He skewed over the first, was somewhat big over the third, was slow over the seventh and went through the top off two out. Nevertheless, his round was not the worst on display and he settled better than he had done on the flat. He was still completely tailed off although it was reported that he lost his near-fore shoe. 28

Fahad jumped poorly but passed beaten horses on his hurdling debut at Catterick on good ground, then returned to the venue where he jumped marginally better but was well beaten on soft ground. Here in heavy ground, he jumped poorly and never left the rear. He also lost his near-fore shoe. 11

El Jefe was moderate on the flat, but his best effort came last time when second in a Redcar handicap off 51. That was his first outing after a wind operation, and eighty-five days later, he was very well backed to make a winning hurdles debut here. However, while he jumped well enough save for going left at the second and steadying at the fourth, he took a keen hold up from the start to the home straight where he faded to finish over a hundred lengths behind the winner. 9

Flight Command won a mile handicap off 53 on his final start in Ireland and Samuel Drinkwater's first juvenile hurdler is not unfeasibly bred for the sphere. However, without being bad, his jumping was untidy and he was dropped from a midfield position at the end of the straight whereafter he was pulled up. 0

[Kotkijet]

I tend not to preview juveniles in non-juvenile races as a matter of course due partially to time constraints, partially to my accidently missing them, and largely because I have no idea what to make of the older horses. Nevertheless, there are a few interesting ones running tomorrow. Not interesting in the sense that they might be Triumph horses, but interesting nonetheless.

1.20 Plumpton 2m Handicap Hurdle
State Crown chg Evan Williams f3-0-2 (78) 79 j2-0-2 (116) 106 117
New Approach (Dubawi){10-a}(0.75) No jumps relatives
Since leaving Charlie Appleby for ?24,000 at the Goffs UK September Sale, State Crown has finished runner-up twice in as many starts over hurdles. The form of his debut outing at Ludlow has worked out very well, with winner Talking About You following up in a pair of listed races, runner-up Naizagai filling the same position in handicaps at Sandown and Wetherby off 115, and the fourth placed Mr Shady finishing second next time at Wetherby. Next time at Newcastle, he finished second by a neck to Son Of Red who since ran with credit at Cheltenham. There is little cause for concern insofar as jumping is concerned and though he could learn to settle better, his resilience in battle is not in doubt. Plumpton is one of the easier courses in the country, and his in-form trainer has won three from sixteen with handicapping juveniles in the past five years. On known form, he is fairly treated and with improvement, his mark would be kind. A more pressing concern would be that he has yet to run on anything slower than good and while there are mixed messages in the pedigree, there is a lean towards better ground.

PROSPECTS: Reasonable

1.45 Fairyhouse 2m?f Handicap Hurdle
Crassus bg Noel Meade f10-0-3 (68) 76 j4-1-2 (119) 110 125
War Command (Seeking The Gold){4-m}(1.89) 0.5 Indian Chief PU Maiden Hurdle, Sedgefield 2019
It took Crassus thirteen races to get off the mark before winning at Limerick early last month. Prior to that, he finished second to Duffle Coat and Glorious Zoff, and was in the process of running a fine race against Zanahiyr at Bellewstown before falling. Though lacking confidence at Sligo following his fall, the clear round did him a world of good and he jumped as well as ever on his latest start over hurdles. The form of his Limerick race has worked out respectably as runner-up Palm Beach came very close to winning on Boxing Day, Zoffanien ran creditably in the same contest, and the well beaten fourth, Saga Malta, ran a similar race on new year's eve. There were concerns that Crassus did not respond well to the whip, and tomorrow's rider Lisa O'Neill has been more whip than hands in close wins in the past. Nevertheless, when Crassus was last seen in a Dundalk handicap, he closed well after a slow start without his rider making much use of the whip so it is assumed that these will be the instructions. On form, Crassus is fairly treated on his debut run, and well treated on his outings at Ballinrobe and Limerick. The conditions should present no concerns and in isolation from what the opponents might be able to produce, Crassus goes into the race with a nice profile.

PROSPECTS: Strong

Rock Chica bm Thomas Mullins f6-0-0 (36) 40 j4-1-0 (108) 104 105
Rock Of Gibraltar (Bahri){1-l}(1.86) 2/1 Chica Buena 1st Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed), Aintree 2018
Though moderate on the flat, Rock Chica has done better over hurdles and she followed a career best fourth on her jumps bow at Punchestown with a bloodless win in a fillies' maiden at Tipperary in October. Only the first flight faller has been seen since, but she enjoyed the testing conditions and jumped well to win by twenty-six lengths. She has subsequently been outclassed in a winners' race at Punchestown where she jumped poorly, and in a Grade Three at this venue when flattered to finish close to Druid's Altar. The yard has not been in great form recently, and her even her best effort would not leave her kindly handicapped. Conditions ought to suit, but she will need to improved since last seen to challenge Crassus.

PROSPECTS: Feasible

2.02 Catterick 2m3?f Novices' Hurdle
Gold Desert chg Oliver Greenall f4-0-0 (71) 74 j4-2-2 (123) 115 124
Mastercraftsman (Galileo){9-f}(0.76) 3/1 Triple Sharp 1st Mares' Handicap Hurdle (81), Fakenham 2001
Though his hurdling debut at Sedgefield in September was a winning one, he needed almost every yard to win what was a moderate contest. He built on that performance when third in a better on his return to that venue the following month and doubled his tally on good ground here at Catterick a fortnight later, once again needing every yard. A step up in class followed and he acquitted himself well in the Grade Two Summit Hurdle at Doncaster. Jumping well except for when his concentration caused minor errors, he was no match for the promising Monmiral, but lost little credit in defeat as he still ran on well and was a long way clear of the remainder. The additional half mile here should come as a gift to Gold Desert and his yard had a 50/1 runner-up in a Musselburgh juvenile on Friday. His winner's penalties eat into most of his age allowance however and while Monticello is coming back after a long lay-off and Finisk River gives him the best part of a stone, Frimeur du Lancray ran well at Haydock on his first run since a wind operation and that form has worked out well. Gold Desert has proven himself a hardy battler and comes here with every chance, but if that is enough to offset the apparent class advantage of Frimeur du Lancray is a matter to be resolved at the track.

PROSPECTS: Very Reasonable

[Kotkijet]

With no juveniles running tomorrow and few races scheduled for the coming week regardless of the cold snap, I have eased off a little and have just got the reviews up to the 29th for the time being.

Before I post them, a quick note on Crassus's race today at Fairyhouse. I will preface this by saying that I am generally very reticent about criticising the rides given by jockeys. Not only can it be mean spirited and unduly personal (which should never be anybody's intention), but making a good "wine glass" shape on a mechanical horse is the extent of my lived race riding experience. Nevertheless, in my amateur opinion, I thought the ride given to Crassus this afternoon was not good. She pulled him when he was very nicely settled up front and going a sensible gallop. She made no effort to turn the screws when there was still a lot of horse beneath her on the turn in. She rode him going into the final flight, but pulled him at the last moment even though he is an habitually sound and clever jumper whose leap at the last at Limerick sealed the race. Then, her actions in the finish consisted of pulling Crassus with one hand and whipping him with the other which was precisely what should not have been done with the particular horse. It is entirely possible that with the perfect ride, Crassus may have still been beaten by the plot horse. Nevertheless, were I the owner of Crassus, I would be asking Noel Meade for an explanation.

Now it will likely be a day or two before I review the performance properly and if anybody can point out where I am mistaken then I will gladly amend my perspective. I would much rather be correct than proud in my contributions, and I am not a fan of being critical of human beings when the error is fundamentally harmless in the grand scheme of things. I actually feel like a bit of a rotter now so to lighten the air a bit, here's a clip of a doggy watching a horse race.

https://i.imgur.com/Um6UnHW.gifv

Good Ball 29/12/2020 Newbury 2m?f Introductory Hurdle
Good Ball came into the race having finished second on his sole start in France where the front pair were clear from a subsequent large margin winner. Coming from the same race as the yard's Solo and Stratagem and through the same connections as Saphir du Rheu and Irish Saint, Good Ball was following exalted hoofsteps. He jumped big a couple of times during an otherwise fine debut performance, and apart from slightly steadying into the first, hurdled very well for his new yard and was not fazed when bumped in mid air at the penultimate flight. Though he is bred to excel at the minimum trip, Good Ball shaped very much as though he would be suited by further. Shadowing the leaders for much of the contest, he was badly outpaced and dropped to midfield passing the cross fence. He had six ahead of him jumping three out, four ahead of him at the penultimate flight, and still had half a dozen lengths to find after clearing the last. Nevertheless, he finally found the necessary gear to take the lead at the half-furlong marker and won comfortably going away. Measuring the form is not straightforward as the next four finishers were all unexposed, and all covered by two lengths. The winning time was half a second faster than the preceding handicap hurdle and the early pace was similar in both races. Given the manner of the success and some weight for age faffery, a mark in the mid 120s would not be absurd. Good Ball is a decent stamp of a horse who might be the type to do better with another year to his name. Nevertheless, although he took a while to get going, he did most things right for a newcomer and with the benefit of experience, there is no reason why he can not do useful things this campaign. 124

Asharann 29/12/2020 Doncaster 2m?f Handicap Hurdle (107)
On his hurdles form thus far, Asharann was not especially well treated before being three pounds wrong here. Nevertheless, he jumps reasonably well, would not be harshly treated on his best flat form and could feasibly improve to such a mark if learning to settle better. The early tempo here was so slow that a horse who refused to race at the start was able to make up twenty-odd lengths before the field went a furlong. While such courtesy is seen as good sportsmanship in professional cycling, it is a rarer occurrence when bikes are replaced by horses. Asharann was somewhat keen early, but was lit up when he saw an upcoming set of hurdles and was difficult to settle from there. He still jumped all four of his hurdles ok and while he never progressed beyond midfield, was still in contention at the distance. Asharann faded in the final furlong which will likely have been his early pulling taking its toll. This essentially matches his best hurdling form to date and once again, he has the capacity to improve if learning to settle. 100

Preview review
This one was quite disappointing. Taking Ronde De Nuit aside, the front three of the prospects list matches the race result. However, despite Progressive having all of the credentials that typically carry weight in the previews, a newly built formula showed that horses in general do better with experience at Doncaster and because of the recency bias, this stuck with me. That there were less hurdles jumped perhaps altered the impact of the course's configuration, but in any case, Progressive should not have been underestimated. Insofar as the reasoning behind Ronde De Nuit's prospects were concerned, they were mostly sound but while the Exeter debut was disappointing, this was just lamentable. Given the finishing positions and distances, nothing else was either under or overestimated.

Race review
A maiden hurdle restricted to fillies, this would not be an especially classy affair and traditionally, it has been some way off the standard juvenile ran at the venue. With the introduction of the listed race at the end of January, this maiden has more recently been used as a trial for that contest and this year's winner would not be out of place. Due to the low sun, only four hurdles were jumped which in itself, reduces the relevance as an examination of hurdling ability. Nevertheless, the winner has a solid profile, the runner-up showed her debut at Leicester was not a fluke, and this pair were clear of the rest. The strength of the form lacks real substance at this juncture, but the winner should progress.

Progressive, a daughter of Nathaniel, was a progressive winner on the flat for Roger Varian, and has joined a top yard for her new vocation. She was fresh in the early stages of her first outing for over eighty days, but was suitably settled in midfield after a couple of jumps. She hurdled well over the first and the third where she was ridden into the approach, whereas she slightly skewed over the second and got close into the fourth when steady on the approach. She began her pursuit five lengths in arrears of the leader who got first run at the top of the straight, but was not hard pressed to steadily eat into that gap and would head her rival just before the furlong pole before being ridden out for a comfortable two and a quarter length success. The bare form is not worth a great deal at this juncture, but she has shown she can travel and jump well while having scope for plenty of improvement for the experience. There is a gap to be bridged before she matches the likes of Hiconic, Talking About You and Fiveandtwenty, but she would be receiving weight from all of those should they meet at the venue and Progressive would be well worth a place in that company. 107

Gilbertina achieved nothing in two starts on the flat prior to her hurdling debut at Leicester where she belied odds of 200/1 to finish third. There she overcame novicey jumping in the early stages before settling into a decent rhythm and while she was beaten eighteen lengths in the end, she maintained her position relative to the remainder. Taking the initiative from flagfall, Gilbertina jumped the first two correctly but steadied and skewed over the third while stumbling after the fourth. She still held the lead turning for home and got first run over her rivals. Though caught and held by her superior rival, she finished twenty-two lengths clear of the remainder. An unexposed horse who confirmed and surpassed her Leicester performance, Gilbertina should remain competitive in ordinary contest and has the capacity for further progression. 105

Licit was backed from 7/1 in the morning to 10/3 ahead of her hurdling debut, a move which replicated that for her stablemate Kentucky Hardboot's debut at Kempton. While the yard is not noted for its jumpers, it has sent out two placed juvenile hurdlers from as many horses this season. A winner of a soft ground handicap at Haydock in September, Licit is feasibly bred for her new career and the services of Bryony Frost were employed. Her jumping left plenty to be desired as she essentially got too close to and hopped over all four of her hurdles. Still in last position on the approach to the final flight, she tracked the winner's move along the final turn. While she was soon left in her wake, she was able to put a sizable margin between herself and the remnants of the race. Licit was not disgraced on her debut, but her hurdling needs a lot of work and the bare form is not outstanding. 83

Breadcrumbs had been well beaten in two bumpers and was sent off rank outsider here. Always towards the rear, she jumped the first two adequately, but steadied into and got too close to the final two with her last jump causing her to get detached. She was able to pluck off beaten horses one by one, and would take a remote fourth in the concluding furlong. Breadcrumbs was not given too hard a time of things, and may do better with a trip. However, there is no cause for immediate enthusiasm. 74

Kimberley ran creditably without winning in six runs for James Fanshawe, albeit her latest two starts for that yard were below par. Following a 10,500 guineas sale, she joined a Oliver Greenall yard which can do well with juveniles, although sire Oasis Dream does not have a strong record in the division. Chasing the leader from the start, she got in close to all of her hurdles and was involved in a barging match along the stretch away from the stands. Though still in second when entering the straight, she weakened thereafter and was ultimately beaten by fifty-five lengths. Along with still being green, Kimberley's jumping was not up to scratch and her lack of stamina was conspicuous. She may be entitled to improve on her return after three and a half months off the track, and the yard's runners do improve with experience. However, she has plenty to prove at this juncture. 52

Call Me Sainte is bred to make a juvenile hurdler, but she made an inauspicious debut in an Exeter bumper seventy days earlier. Subsequent wind surgery and the application of a hood did nothing for her performance as she pulled hard early, went through the top of the first and hopped over the remaining three while steadying and getting too close. 48

Hunter's Dawn brought the best bumper form to the race, but the sum of which was no better than moderate and she ran out when competing at this venue in late November. A subsequent flat outing at Southwell saw her tail off and she was very keen here. The other participant in the barging match, this battle hindered her early jumping and was exacerbated by her keenness. She was the first of those racing prominently to be beaten and was beaten nearly eighty lengths. 29

Ronde De Nuit ran with promise on her sole flat outing at Angers, and though she was beaten over fifteen lengths on her hurdles debut at Exeter in November, she shaped with enough promise to justify being sent off the second favourite here. However, while she was always in a good position and jumped well save for clipping the second and getting distracted at the last, she finished extremely weakly. The trainer's rep suggested she was unsuited by the going and given that she raced on the inside throughout, and that Doctor Dino's progeny act on good ground, there may be merit to this theory. Nevertheless, Ronde De Nuit's constitution is not appealing and she will need to prove herself in this regard before she can rekindle her reputation. 23

Flippance opened in the morning at 16/1 but this was by sheer virtue of her trainer as her flat form is poor and she has already undergone a wind operation. Though baulked on landing at the first, her jumping was poor nevertheless and after pulling hard in the early phases, was dropped from her midfield position after the last and finished hopelessly tailed off. 0

[Might_Bite]

The bookies have priced up the irish entries in the Finale Hurdle at chepstow. I feel like they could be making the market for a few seeing as they cant travel over (Unless that rule has changed ).

Adagio at 13/2 3Places with Hills looks big to me, as he looks to have the best proven form of these. What do you reckon Guru (Kotkijet)?

[Kotkijet]

The bookies have priced up the irish entries in the Finale Hurdle at chepstow. I feel like they could be making the market for a few seeing as they cant travel over (Unless that rule has changed ).

Adagio at 13/2 3Places with Hills looks big to me, as he looks to have the best proven form of these. What do you reckon Guru (Kotkijet)?

The best priced overround excluding the Elliott horses is 110.7% so I am guessing any clerical oversight has been factored into the books.

Will want to have a proper look at the race first but in the likely absence of Quilixios and Duffle Coat, 13/2 would be a decent enough price. He has achieved the best British form to date in the line up and should have no problems whatsoever with the ground. Nassalam has looked good beating trees so I suspect we will learn a lot more of him should Saturday's race go ahead. Since 2005, Paul Nicholls has won the race twice from thirteen runners. Four of those runners were French recruits making their British debuts with Tatenen, Sang Bleu and Caid Du Berlais all finishing second. Elham Valley and Yggdrasil's form was boosted with Hudson De Grugy's win the other day but it still leaves them short of Adagio. Yggdrasil might be of interest since he was making his debut at Sandown and was the selected of two runners for the intended race ahead of Honneur d'Ajonc who came close to winning at Kempton the same day. Bannister and Gold Desert are admiral but probably a notch below these while Mr Shady and Pyramid Place look to be making up the numbers.

[Might_Bite]

The best priced overround excluding the Elliott horses is 110.7% so I am guessing any clerical oversight has been factored into the books.

Will want to have a proper look at the race first but in the likely absence of Quilixios and Duffle Coat, 13/2 would be a decent enough price. He has achieved the best British form to date in the line up and should have no problems whatsoever with the ground. Nassalam has looked good beating trees so I suspect we will learn a lot more of him should Saturday's race go ahead. Since 2005, Paul Nicholls has won the race twice from thirteen runners. Four of those runners were French recruits making their British debuts with Tatenen, Sang Bleu and Caid Du Berlais all finishing second. Elham Valley and Yggdrasil's form was boosted with Hudson De Grugy's win the other day but it still leaves them short of Adagio. Yggdrasil might be of interest since he was making his debut at Sandown and was the selected of two runners for the intended race ahead of Honneur d'Ajonc who came close to winning at Kempton the same day. Bannister and Gold Desert are admiral but probably a notch below these while Mr Shady and Pyramid Place look to be making up the numbers.

Top banana! Top Man! and just all round top work once again!

I think im going to keep my pennies dry for the time being. Cheers though K

[Kotkijet]

With this batch, we are now up to date with the reviews. Hurrah! Juveniles I'm Easy, Monash and Wightman as set to contest "jumpers bumpers" tomorrow. However, as my concerns with the division are based on hurdlers, these outings will likely receive little attention outside of future previews.

TAUNTON 30th December
Preview review
Could have been worse. Flying Tiger drifted before his racecourse debut and reportedly made a noise but without Can't Stop Now falling at the last, the prospects list and finishing order would not have been too distorted. Strong prospect Volkovka was the cleanest jumper of the race, went down by a narrow margin and may well have won had her rival not found the rail. Wightman had feasible prospects and his imperfect jumping was once again prevalent, but slightly diluted since his debut and the noted sharper test was very much to his advantage. Can't Stop Now was in the process of running a fine race, but the free running sort was still prone to making errors and with the Taunton not being as sharp as Fakenham, the moderately higher demands proved telling. Iron Heart received plenty of market support, but was once again let down by his jumping.

Race review
This did not look a bad contest beforehand, but by the same token, it was not especially strong either. The principles had every reason to finish as they did and the distances were very reasonable.. Nevertheless, while the race was run at a solid pace, it was still some three and a half seconds slower than the race won by Talking About You later on the card. Nevertheless, the tempo was sufficient to thin the field out before too long, and those that remained were a class ahead of the outsiders. The form looks reliable enough, but since the principles are not obvious penalty defiers, the contest overall has about it a "division three" quality.

Wightman won one from twelve on the flat and his latest official rating of 69 is just above average for the division. Staying with Mick Channon for a hurdling career, he ran with some promise at Newbury where he was an eighteen length sixth in a better race. His jumping was not catastrophic, but he did have a tendency to land steeply which re-emerged to a lesser degree here. He also rather failed to see out the trip, but this sharp circuit will likely have been the upper end of his limits. Along with being steep over the second and the seventh, Wightman skewed at the first, was slow over the third, close at the fourth and stumbled slightly at the seventh. Again, none of these errors were catastrophic, and after being prominent in the pursuit of the clear leader for much of the contest, had bridged the gap at the turn for home and jumped the last in a marginal lead. The battle with Volkovka along the entirety of the run-in was tight and well contested throughout. He briefly played second fiddle, but his drifting to the rails proved advantageous as he regained the lead at the line to score by a head. This was good improvement on his Newbury bow, and it brings Wightman closer to the best of his flat form which came over a mile. Life will be more difficult under a penalty and though there is scope for improvement in the jumping department, he will probably need another test as sharp as this in order to perform. 106

Volkovka had shown fair form on the flat in France and despite being bought out of a claimer, her flat ability is above average for the sphere. She flopped badly on her British debut at Fakenham and was in the process of running only a fair race when blundering badly next time at Leicester. She got off the mark at Market Rasen just over a fortnight later thanks to moderate opposition and her best round of jumping to date. Apart from minor imperfections at the fourth and seventh, she posted another decent display of hurdling and traded as low as 1.1 in-running to double her hurdles tally. Initially held up towards the rear of midfield, she moved comfortably through a field that struggled to live with the pace. Reaching the front alongside the winner at the final flight, she plugged on gamely and was only denied by Wightman's discovery of the rail. This marks a hurdles best to the tune of roughly half a stone, and there may be further to come if stepped up in trip. 105

Iron Heart's three strongest performances on the flat for Andrew Balding came when 'firm' appeared in the going description. His first two jumps appearances were marked by reticent hurdling, although he also picked up minor injuries during those outings which might have accounted for same. He built on his Wincanton form when last seen at Newbury where he finished five lengths ahead of Wightman, and was backed into favouritism to get off the mark here. There was less apprehension in his hurdling here, but it was not an error free round as was somewhat untidy at the first, got close into the second and sixth and was steady approaching the fourth. He was never far off the leaders but simultaneously, never got to within a threatening position and was left in third after the last. Though many juveniles from the yard find their footing when switched to handicaps, the market support beforehand suggested that improvement may have been forthcoming here. Were it the case that Iron Heart had become more assured at his jumping then the confidence was partially vindicated. However, his jumping remains far from polished and he has yet to show himself proficient on softer ground. His fresh rating of 107 is not especially harsh based on his hurdles form and could be quite viable on his flat form, especially on a sounder surface. 95

Shutupshirley has a stout pedigree for a juvenile hurdler and in the two runs since his racecourse debut in October, he has found himself decidedly outpaced. Always in the rear, he was unable to live with the early tempo on this sharp circuit and finished a never nearer eighteen length fourth after passing beaten rivals. His jumping was fine as per usual and the trainer afterwards reported a respiratory noise. Though his mark of 101 does not reflect his hitherto achievements, it is not unreasonable to assume that a step up in trip and a breathing operation should foment improvement. 87

Theocrat made a fair hurdling introduction at Ludlow in early October when less than four lengths fourth to Orchestral Rain, but pulled too hard for his own good when returning to Shropshire the following month. He pulled again in the early stages here but had settled better after around three furlongs. Though slightly untidy at a few of his hurdles and putting in a tired leap two out, his jumping is essentially passable for the sphere. While this was a step up on his last outing, it was still a long way from his debut performance and unless he is able to replicate same, his mark of 100 will be difficult to reach. 70

Masterdream cost 56,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, but his flat form with John Oxx did not particularly warrant such a price and his two subsequent hurdles outings have been disappointing. He had lacked fluency and confidence at most hurdles at Sandown, but in fairness, he was only steady at a couple here and was generally quite tidy. He was also impeded slightly at the first and at two out, but was never in a position to challenge in any case. Masterdream bettered his Sandown performance, but he still needs to show considerably more before he can be competitive. 68

Can't Stop Now rather defied expectations when third on his hurdles debut at Kempton, and though he essentially refused to race next time at Ludlow, he was successful at Fakenham at the end of November. Despite running freely and jumping poorly, his free-running style enabled him to run out a rather decisive winner. He employed the same tactics here and despite wandering at the first. putting in a long leap at the third, going through the top of the fourth and getting close to the next two, he was only caught at the last. There, he failed to take off in time and took a tumbling fall. Though he held a commanding lead for most of the contest, he never traded odds-on in-running and was probably a spent force by the last flight. Thankfully he got up from his fall and he can post similar performances at this kind of level provided it is as a sharp track. While he might benefit from settling better, it appears that his potency lies in his immoderate style. Though he has subsequently been dropped two pounds to 122, this mark is still a good stone off his flat or jumps ability. 103

Numberoneson had won off 79 on his final start for Joseph O'Brien in July, but was most disappointing on his first two starts over hurdles at Ludlow and Wetherby. His hurdling and travelling had been poor on each occasion, but running in first time blinkers, he tracked the leader for most of the contest and was still in second jumping the third last. He weakened quickly thereafter and was pulled up on entering the straight. While it is difficult to draw positives from such a performance, apart from steadying at the fourth and fifth, he jumped better than usual as well as travelling prominently for longer. Notwithstanding, while this perhaps betters his debut run despite pulling up, there is still clearly something missing and Numberoneson continues to have plenty to prove. 0

Zellerate managed to finish runner-up last time at Fontwell, but he was almost fifty lengths behind the winner and those placed behind him ran abysmally. Otherwise, his career consists of tailing off in a bumper and now two pulled-ups. Never nearer than midfield, he was slightly baulked at a couple of hurdles, but still steadied into a few himself while jumping untidily at times. His rating of 83 is a low one, but it still flatters him on what he has achieved thus far. 0

Presgrave is another former inmate of Joseph O'Brien's and while he did not win on the flat, his form in that sphere was at least average. He had been tried in all manner of headgear however and though he travelled easily enough, there was a discernible lack of fluency. He began the race in a prominent position, but was already losing ground entering the back straight and was pulled up before the turn for home. 0

Impetuous finished her flat career with a rating of just 35 and was completely unfancied ahead of her hurdles bow. She was steady, big and untidy over her first few jumps and while she was marginally better at the fourth, she was already ridden and detached by that stage. She got in close to the next and was pulled up afterwards. 0

Fighting Tiger is a half-brother to Flying Tiger who won the Fred Winter for the yard in 2017. Making his racecourse debut, he had already gone a wind operation and was a drifter in the market beforehand. He was untidy over his hurdles and pulled up before the sixth, reportedly having made a respiratory noise. 0

Siempre Rapido has a flat rating of 70, but carried stamina doubts into this contest and was not fancied in the market. Though he hopped slightly over the first, he jumped his next four reasonably well. However, he weakened quickly and was pulled up before the next having also made a noise. 0

Talking About You 30/12/2020 Taunton 2m?f Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed)
The transformation Talking About You has undergone since her jumps debut in early August has been little short of remarkable. While the began her hurdling career as an outlandishly temperamental sort, she was able to win on her third start at Fontwell before appearing to revert to form in her next couple of races. Returning after a wind operation and short break, she ran creditably at Fakenham before taking a large leap forward at Ludlow with a fine hurdling display resulting in a decisive victory. While her jumping was not as sound at Aintree, she gained her first black type and would double her pattern tally here. Disputing the lead for most of the contest, her jumping was once again lacking as she steadied into half of her hurdles as well as getting in close to a couple in a rather alarming fashion. Turning into the straight with a length advantage, she was very untidy and slow to get away from the last. Nevertheless, she was ridden out under a moderate drive to cross the line with a definitive two and a quarter length lead. While this marked a second listed win, the form should not really be overstated as even though the third was rated 140, she is flagrantly better on good ground. Nevertheless, she has reaffirmed her abilities against older horses and should remain a force to be reckoned with against her own sex in the division. Although talks of Cheltenham were dismissed by connections, Aintree has been a stated option. While she would be some way off the best colts in the division, particularly if the Irish contingent will be allowed to compete, a race like Doncaster's fillies' race later in the month could be a good target as she need only carry a five pound penalty. 124

Marta Des Mottes 30/12/2020 Taunton 2m?f Mares' Novices' Hurdle (Listed)
Finishing well beaten on the flat in February, Marta Des Mottes was an 18/1 winner of an Angers claimer on her hurdling debut in May. After finishing an eleven length fourth in a better race at Clairefontaine, she won a good ground conditions event at La Teste De Buch in July, conceding upwards of five kilos from her strung out rivals. The form of neither of her wins has any real value, but her hurdling improved between these outings with neater jumps outnumbering those lacking fluency. Tom Symonds has done well with a small number of French hurdling recruits in the division, but Marta Des Mottes has only one behind her in the betting ahead of her British debut. Keen early while tracking the leaders, she was no worse than untidy with her worst error coming at the fifth where she was steady and skewed in the air. However, she was the first to come off the bridle in the back straight and would soon lose touch before finishing over thirty-five lengths last of five. There is little reason to suspect that this was her true showing as it was her first run in over five months and though she won a claimer on soft ground, she may be happier on a sounder surface. 84

[Kotkijet]

PUNCHESTOWN 31st December
Preview review
With Zanavi jumping poorly and Persia being withdrawn due to a bereavement, Riviere d'Etel's task was a simple one. Though she was keen in the early stages, it was not to the detriment of her performance and she ran out a very cosy winner. Zanavi's trainer has a 100% clear round record with his first time juveniles so his poor round could not really have been foreseen. He was badly baulked at the first which may have affected his confidence. The next four to finish had moderate and negligible prospects so in this regard, they were all underestimated by the preview and, barring Loved Out, the market. Coventry has a strong flat pedigree and just two runs to his name, was less exposed than most Ballydoyle cast-offs. Loved Out was well beaten four days earlier, but there was promise on his debut at this venue and though the record of his yard's juveniles returning quickly was poor, it was noted that the one placed horse was also the shortest priced and Loved Out started the race at a fifth of his morning price. Roma Delight had shown pace when free-running on previous outings, and a better round of jumping enabled her to stay in contention for longer. Saeer was given moderate prospects, but finished seventeen lengths behind Roma Delight in any case. Given that those who underperformed had only feasible prospects, the only real take aways would be to be more mindful of unexposed horses with potential, and those with experience of front running.

Race review
Following the withdrawal of Persia and the underperformance of Zanavi, Riviere d'Etel had not a great deal to beat. But though she was not always the tidiest, she was undeniably convincing. The winning time was over sixteen seconds quicker than the later handicap and while that was a moderate race and the ground may have been extremely testing at that point, Riviere d'Etel's time is still half a second per furlong superior to those posted in the other races against the standard. This is all the more noteworthy as the race was run through a veritable blizzard with moderate visibility. The overall standard of jumping could have been cleaner, but in fairness, these youngsters did quite well given the conditions. The winner was a different class, but the despite the long prices, those who finished behind had feasible reasons to do so and were very well strung out. Since the circumstances were quite exceptional, the form may not translate beyond its environment. Nevertheless, with the possible exception of Zanavi's confidence being shot at the first, there is little reason to not take the form at face value.

Riviere d'Etel finished second in the pouliches version of the Prix Finot on her sole hurdles run where the front pair finished a long way clear, and the winning time was a good one. She had been quite wayward on that occasion which was also reflected in her jumping. Some of those tendencies were still apparent here, but running in a first time hood, she was still keen without being alarmingly headstrong and her jumping was never much worse than untidy. Tracking the leaders in the opening stages, she took the lead on turning away from the stands and after being shaken up briefly before the home turn, quickly established a commanding lead. Despite an untidy jump at the last, she was not asked to pick up and passed the post an easy twelve length winner. Though this was not a polished performance, it was still one of considerable potential and by far the strongest seen by any filly this season. She clearly handles testing conditions very well and while it remains to be seen if she can be versatile on better ground, her pedigree suggests that it is not beyond the realm of possibility. Although she could develop into Triumph class, the yard already has an embarrassment of riches in the division and the current favourite is in the same ownership. As such, the mares' novice might be a more feasible target should Irish horses be allowed to compete at the festival. 131

Coventry is by Galileo and out of an Irish Oaks winning daughter of an Irish Oaks runner-up. He began his career at Ballydoyle, but failed to reach the first ten in a pair of Curragh maidens either side of early 2020. Prior to Coventry's run, John Halley saddled seventeen juveniles since 2008/09 with all of them formerly trained by Aiden O'Brien, and only Foreign Secretary winning a five runner Limerick contest in March 2019. Drifting from 22/1 to 50/1 in the ring, Coventry was at the head of the chasing group and moved into a prominent position towards the end of the back. Though his pursuit of the winner was a hopeless task, he was able to forge clear of the remainder over which he held a fifteen length advantage at the line. There is work to be done on his jumping as he was close at the first and fifth, slow over the second, steady and untidy at two and and somewhat careful over the last. This is the strongest debut performance from a John Halley trained juvenile during the past decade and it remains to be seen how long Coventry stays with his current handler as those who show promise, such as Ballyglasheen, Enchanted Forest and Great Trango, are usually moved along quite quickly. 119

Loved Out failed to justify strong market support ahead of his hurdling debut here in November, partially due to an imperfect ride, but largely due to poor jumping. He was not much better at Leopardstown four days earlier where he finished down the field, but was well supported to make amends here. Having opened at 25/1 in the morning, he started this contest at a fifth of that price. Racing in tandem with Coventry for most of the race, he was left behind by his partner of convenience turning for home where his task switched to a long and protracted battle for third with Roma Delight. He prevailed by a short head although his drifting into the filly may have made the difference and probably would have been challenged in the stewards room had they been first and second past the post. Loved Out was very untidy over the first and slow over the second, but apart from getting close to the fifth, jumped reasonably well. This effort matches his debut course and distance performance and while he is limited in his potential, is capable of being competitive at a moderate level. 104

Roma Delight spent the first portion of her career in the United States where she largely contested maiden claimers and ran to a fair level. In November, she ran no kind of race at Dundalk on her Irish debut and was subject to a peculiar ride on her hurdling bow over course and distance later that month. The strategy was less convoluted next time at Fairyhouse as she went to the front, jumped exuberantly, and tired five furlongs from home. Similar tactics were employed here and though she was somewhat keen, she was hardly pulling the rider's arms out and was settled behind the winner by the back straight. Her jumping had also improved as apart from hopping over the first and steadying slightly into the fourth, she posted her clearest round to date. Class began to tell in the concluding stages, but she was still an engaged participant in the battle for third which she ceded by the tightest of margins. This was a vast improvement on her previous efforts and she has clearly learned from her experiences. Though she has no pretentions to any higher level, she can make her presence felt in modest company. 97

Saeer ran four times for Sir Michael Stoute, and with a flat rating of 63, joined Gordon Elliott for 9,000 guineas. An unused reserve at Leopardstown, horses leaving Freemason Lodge generally struggle to improve on their flat form and he was the least fancied of his yard's three runners. Held up in midfield, he never looked like getting competitive and still had seven ahead of him at the distance. He usurped three of those rivals but was still beaten forty-four lengths in the end. His hurdling had been reasonable prior to a slow jump at the sixth, and the round was capped off by a pair of tired leaps at the final two flights. It was not a disgraceful introduction and wanting for fitness, he likely blew up towards the end. He might be suited by an easier test. 87

Away To Sea got worked up in the stalls before his sole flat outing at Tipperary back in August, but ran with credit to finish just over a four length fourth. The subject of support ahead of his hurdling debut, he was sent off at 6/1 from a morning show of 16/1. However, his jumping was not up to a decent standard and he made errors at every flight, ranging from steadying on the approach, getting too close and landing steeply. Tracking Coventry and Roma Delight, he was still in contention with a third of a mile to go, but was left behind by the principles and faded quickly thereafter. Though he is decidedly inexperienced, he has shown some ability on both of his outings and given that he is bred to do well in the sphere, he can still mature into something more compelling. 86

Sweet Will was the most experienced runner in the field courtesy of his runs at Sligo, Fairyhouse and Limerick. The closest he had finished to the winner had been thirty-two lengths, but his jumping had been reasonable on his previous two outings. Save for a blunder at the sixth, he put in another acceptable round of hurdling without ever threatening to get remotely competitive. This effort matched his best in the sphere, and he is establishing himself as a consistent, if moderate performer. A handicap mark may help him more than a trip. 86

Zanavi ran creditable race on the second of his two runs for Dermot Weld to finish runner-up in a Curragh maiden ahead of his €34,000 switch to Denis Gerard Hogan. By Champs Elysees and from the Petite Etoile damline, he has the credentials to do well in the sphere but was significantly uneasy in the market ahead of his hurdling bow. His introduction got off to an inauspicious start as he was badly baulked at the first. This may have had a significant effect on his confidence as he jumped poorly thereafter. Reticent and very close at the second, he was careful over the third, close to the next three and low and skewed at the third last. Though he was positioned on the more prominent end of midfield, he began to lose touch leaving the back and was never able to regain momentum. Due to his being impeded at the first, it is reasonable to forgive this performance even though the drift beforehand is not easy to ignore. 85

Lady Kapalua had been quite ignominious on her two starts to date coming at Roscommon in August, and Fairyhouse in December. Nevertheless, though she never left the rear and was beaten fifty-eight lengths, she posted her best round of jumping, and her best performance to date. 66

Kashi was bought out of the Andrew Balding yard for 8,000 guineas after failing to match his debut second at Kempton in four subsequent outings. He is not unfeasibly bred for the discipline and though he went right at the first and was untidy at the second, his jumping was largely acceptable. He was unable to leave the rear however and was struggling a fair way from home before finishing tired. 53

Rich Belief had a higher flat rating and price tag than stablemate Kashi and starting at 22/1, was also half his odds. However, he was always in the rear and jumped poorly before finishing eighteen lengths behind his travelling companion. 35

Anno Maximo was second off a mark of 60 in a firm ground Bath handicap on his penultimate start for Micheal Bell, but his breeding suggested that he could do reasonably well over hurdles. However, he was unfancied in the betting and made minor errors without ever escaping the rear. 35

Raamez won as a two-year-old for John Hammond and was not disgraced on his first outing for Fran?ois Rohaut back in May. However, his form deteriorated in the meantime and he fetched just 20,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Held up in mid-division, he was fluent enough in the early stages but his jumping fell to pieces after getting very close to the fourth and was a spent force with half a mile to run. This performance in conjunction with his regressive flat form leaves him with much to answer. 7

Wonwabbitwon finished third at Leopardstown on his racecourse debut in June, and was not disgraced when fourth in a Curragh maiden when last seen in early November. His three outings in between had been moderate and he drifted from 12/1 to 50/1 through the day. Taking a keen hold and racing prominently, he was low over the first but otherwise jumped adequately. However, he lost his position leaving the back and would weaken rapidly from there before finishing hopelessly tailed off. Though the fact that he was beaten by over 161 lengths should not be ignored, this effort was not devoid of promise and he might provide a better insight into his ability in a less demanding contest. 0

Undercommunication is not a forlorn hope for the division on his breeding, although he barely warranted his low flat rating and is a doubtful stayer. Nearer last than first, his jumping went from acceptable to poor from the fourth onwards and was also completely tailed off. 0

Duck And Vanish was largely consistent on the flat for William Haggas and twice finished second in maidens at Lingfield and Pontefract. 13,000 guineas looked a reasonable price for a horse of his ability, but he has already undergone a pair of wind operations and was weak in the market beforehand. Apart from being big over the first, he was largely adept at his hurdles and was still just about in touch leaving the back. However, he weakened tamely and finished a further twenty-one lengths behind Undercommunication. 0

Freds Honour is a homebred son of Rock Of Gibraltar and was making his racecourse debut here. He was not without some backers as he went from 80/1 to 66/1 before the off, but he jumped very untidily at the second and was slow over the next before fading and pulling up before three out. 0

Pretorius provided viewers with some comic relief during the preliminaries by exuviating his jockey when leaving the paddock, and exploring the vast expanses of Punchestown racecourse. During his adventure in the snow, he even cleared one of the bank fences and while he was not especially tidy, and was slow getting away, he negotiated it safely enough. After joining his equine chums at the start, he became bored with milling around, and galloped along the road back to the saddling enclosure. While we learned nothing of his ability as a juvenile hurdler, Pretorius was still able to demonstrate a willingness to jump large obstacles, and an intelligence which may or may not be helpful in his intended vocation.

[Kotkijet]

MUSSELBURGH 1st January
Preview review
The strong prospect did not win in the fashion of a 1/4 shot, but was still the clear best on the day. Runner-up Herbiers started at a 50/1 which completely disregarded the multitude of factors which made him a reasonable prospect. Kings Creek ran close to form despite a lesser round of jumping and Red Missile also ran in keeping with his ability. Feldspar surpassed expectations which were broadly based on his moderate flat form, but there were factors within his profile which justified his improvement. There were no discernible oversights in the preview.

Race review
Fiveandtwenty followed up her course and distance success, but it was not as visually impressive and this is also reflected in the winning time which was 1.77 seconds slower than her debut win. Nevertheless, the early pace was almost identical and accounting for the additional eighteen yards and six pound penalty, it is essentially an identical performance. It was only 1.3 seconds slower than the Hogmaneigh Hurdle and although the front two in the contest were outsiders, neither were forlorn hopes. In assuming Fiveandtwenty matched her debut outing, the application of according ratings for Feldspar, who improved by over a stone for his hurdles debut, and for Kings Creek, who surpassed his Catterick win despite jumping poorly ,reveal potential inconsistencies. Nevertheless, the former had elements in his profile which made such improvement feasible, and the latter might well have improved for stripping fitter. Overall, it was a truly run contest and the concluding protagonists were credible. The first five were covered by just over seven lengths and the standard of jumping was rather moderate, but while a few might shift positions, the form looks reliable enough at face value.

Fiveandtwenty won three times on the flat for Mark Johnston was a resounding twenty-six length winner of her hurdling debut over course and distance last month. She was backed from 8/15 to 1/4 to land the double and while she never looked like failing in her endeavour, was not quite as impressive. Making all as she had done the first time, she was untidy over the fourth, tripped over the next and was slightly untidy over a few others while being slow to get away from the last. Her advantage in December was of several lengths from the start, half a dozen on the turn and much further at the line, whereas in this instance, the pursuers were always within a couple of lengths and the gap never extended beyond the two lengths at the line. Fiveandtwenty did not see out the race like a fresh horse, but did not do so last month either. A winner over fourteen furlongs on good to firm at this track in September, it is plausible that this is as testing a circuit she can manage on soft ground, but may be adept at other venues on better ground. Though largely consistent and able, her rating of 129 looks harsh on what she has accomplished. The Scottish Triumph Trial has been suggested as a potential target. 118

Herbiers was beaten sixty lengths on his British debut in an Exeter bumper, but his win at Moulins in June was sufficient for owners to reject a €100,000 bid at Arqana. There, he showed a fine battling attitude to win form a subsequent winner who has the measure of Ditcheat recruit Houx Gris. Eschewing Wetherby for the better ground here, he was unconsidered in the market and drifted from 20/1 in the morning to 50/1 at the off. Racing wide and tracking the leader throughout, he was briefly caught for pace on the home turn, but was able to stay on up the run-in and had enough to fend off the the late challenge from the third. He settled well into the race and apart from being untidy at the second, was largely a proficient jumper. Though it remains to be seen how far he can progress, the Oliver Greenall yard appear to have a nice recruit on their hands. 117

Feldspar made his racecourse debut in June, and showed only moderate form in four starts for Amanda Perrett. Following a 6,000 guineas sale in October, he won a Wolverhampton handicap on the second of his three flat outings for Keith Dalgleigh off a mark of 57. His latest rating of 59 was the second lowest in this race, but being by Champs Elysees and closely related to useful hurdler Nearby, a switch to hurdles was not an unreasonable move. Tracking the leaders in midfield, Feldspar made steady progress on the run-in and got to within a length of the runner-up on passing the post. Besides missing the penultimate flight and landing steeply at the last, he hurdled well for a debutant and demonstrated decent athleticism during the journey. Time will tell if this performance was a true reflection of his ability, but there is little obvious reason to doubt this showing at face value and he could improve further with a more demanding test. 117

Kings Creek got off the mark at the fourth time of asking, ninth under both codes, when winning at Catterick last month. Formerly with Alan King, his initial performances had been professional without exuding noteworthy class. However, a seventy-seven break appeared to do him a world of good and he ran out a comfortable winner. His jumping was not as clean here as while he was fine over the first four flights, he was close to the fifth and sixth, untidy at the next, steady and low at two out, and untidy again at the last. The immediate impression is that he underperformed here. However, despite less than fluent hurdling, which has previously been compromised by racing at speed, the time, collateral form and weights indicate that this was a new career best. Evidently, for all that Kings Creek is a professional and consistent type, he probably needs kinder conditions and lesser company to be seen to full effect. 120

Red Missile appeared in Triumph lists at 66/1 prior to his hurdles bow at Perth where he was a fairly disappointing third in a moderate company. He went to Musselburgh the following month to fill the same position, albeit in stronger company. His jumping improved between those outings and though he made three consecutive errors at the fifth, sixth and seventh, he still emerged with some credit in this regard. He had led on his previous jumps outings but opted to track the leaders here which while not eliminating his keenness, helped him to settle better. He was outpaced on the turn for home and was never able to make inroads from there, but stayed on nevertheless and was fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. Red Missile is edging closer to his flat form with each outing and with maturity and a spin around a more demanding circuit, his unchanged rating of 106 could look very generous. 112

Go Bob Go finished second at Lingfield off 59 on his penultimate outing on the flat in a race which looks stronger in hindsight. Leaving Eve Johnson Houghton for 10,000 guineas, Go Bob Go joined a yard which is not as well stocked as others and this was reflected in his pre race drift from 33/1 to 100/1. He was keen early, never emerged from mid division and was ultimately beaten by just over twenty-two lengths. Notwithstanding, he jumped reasonably well as he was only slightly untidy over a couple of early jumps and slow to get away from three out. Go Bob Go is unlikely to challenge the principles should their rivalries be renewed. Nevertheless, there is no reason why he can not match and surpass his flat performances. 97

Kiss My Face was second on each of his bumper outings and was well supported ahead of his hurdling debut at Catterick. However, despite his talented trainer and sire, his inexperience resulted in some very untidy jumps and this performance marked a further regression. Getting in close to the first two, he was long and skewed over the third and would jump to his left, sometimes wildly, at each flight in the back straight. He was slow and untidy over his remaining jumps and was never able to leave the rear of the field. Curiously, his jumping to the left only occurred at the hurdles along the back and while it is possible that he will be helped by going left handed, this could have been a trait specific to Musselburgh. The more pressing concern is his maturity and until this is resolved, Kiss My Face does not inspire much confidence at this juncture. 90

Ajax Tavern cost connections 40,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale following a seven race flat career with Richard Hannon which resulted in a win, two places, and a rating of 78. Though he never ran beyond a mile and is from a family of sprinters, he was backed from 18/1 in the morning to 12/1 at the off. However, his jumping was substandard throughout with a litany of errors including skewing at the first, being big and untidy at the second, trailing his hind legs through the fourth and steadying into the fifth. His round was completed with tired jumps and he finished tailed off. Early keenness exacerbated the stamina concerns and it is difficult to envisage him replicating his flat ability over hurdles. 64

Gypsy Traveller is a stablemate of Go Bob Go, but his flat exploits were moderate and he was withdrawn for unruly behaviour as often as he actually raced. He was completely unfancied here and played up at the start. After jumping very moderately in the rear throughout, he finished tailed off. 31

Poetica 2/1/2021 Cork 2m Maiden Hurdle
Poetica's first two runs over hurdles could be ignored as her saddle slipped at Cork, and he was hampered and unseated early on at Leopardstown. Starting at 125/1, she was in the rear throughout, was very steady and slow at all of the hurdles where she was picked up by the camera, and finished seventy-three lengths last of seventeen. 34

SANDOWN 2nd January
Preview review
The award of strong prospects to Warranty was partially an attempt to be clever, partially a consideration of the below average performances of odds-on favourites in juvenile hurdles at Sandown and the suitability of the race for Warranty. Nevertheless, Warranty traded at 2.12 in-running having opened at 14/1, and the odds-on favourite went traded at 5.1 during the race so the ambition was not entirely misplaced. While the strong prospect was surpassed by the reasonable ones in the correct order, the three finished clear of the other pair whose chances were moderate/negligible.

Race review
This contest is traditionally one of the lesser juvenile hurdles held at Sandown, and while a few came carrying some potential, it was not an especially compelling affair. Nevertheless, the winner confirmed his debut promise and the runner-up ran well in unsuitable conditions. The winning time was over ten seconds slower than in the Tolworth, and over six slower than the concluding handicap. However, all this really informs is that the early pace was very moderate as the first half of the race was ran at a comparative crawl. Though the first three were guilty of some untidy jumps, the overall standard of hurdling was perfectly acceptable and the first two especially look better than average.

Hudson de Grugy is notably related to the yard's Sire de Grugy, but has plenty of other winners closer on the damline. After winning an AQPS bumper on the last of his four runs in France, he belied a pre-race drift to finish a creditable second on his jumps bow at this venue last month. Though novicey at several hurdles, he was better when given instruction from the rider and it was a similar case here. Getting in close to the third and fifth, he was much better when ridden into the final three flights even if he pecked slightly on landing at the last. Leading from the start at a steady tempo, he was very briefly headed approaching the penultimate flight. However, after taking the time to organise himself, he stayed on strongly up the hill and had the best part of three lengths in hand passing the post. His bare achievements to this point amount to not much above average. Nevertheless, as he still has plenty to learn about racing, it can be assumed that he can progress further and develop into a nice type in the long term. 115

Hystery Bere ran with credit on his first three completed starts in France before winning at Le Lion-d'Angers back in July. Making his British debut in a first time tongue tie following a break of 157 days, he was slightly untidy over the first couple of flights and got in close to the sixth and seventh. Nevertheless, he was neat more often than not and was slightly baulked on landing after the winner crossed his path. Though he was beaten entirely on merit, this was still a promising introduction and he may be seen in an even better light on a sounder surface. 118

Warranty won a maiden handicap at Beverly on his final flat start which has worked out well, and was supported in the market ahead of his hurdles debut at Wetherby. However, a series of sloppy and hesitant jumps saw him shuffled back through the field and he was never able to reach a challenging position. His attempt at redemption was curtailed at Kempton as he was carried out after just two jumps, but he jumped the first hurdle well and the race conditions here appeared to look suitable. The slow early gallop compromised his jumping, but it was never disastrous and it improve as the tempo increased. Racing wide and tracking the leaders, he moved menacingly turning into the straight and traded close to evens before finding himself outpaced by the front pair. Nevertheless, he finished within eight lengths of the winner and eighteen lengths clear of the others and the performance marks a new career best in either discipline. 107

Cloud Thunder was a fair maiden on the flat, but was pitched in at the deep end on his hurdles bow at Doncaster where he failed to convince in his attitude or aptitude. He ran out at the paddock bend at Kempton over the festive period, but went from 16/1 to 11/2 in the market to redeem himself here. However, while he settled quite quickly and passed the paddock bend without any fuss, his jumping still left plenty to be desired as he was steady and overly cautious over the first three, got in close to the next two, and was steady and slow over the penultimate flight. Slightly detached for most of the contest, he managed to run into fourth up the straight, but never threatened to look competitive. Although this is his best hurdles performance to date, it still leaves him way short of his flat ability and there is work to be done before he can be competitive. 89

Letter At Dawn finished down the field on his sole flat outing at the Curragh in early November, and received only mild support in the morning to fare better on his hurdles bow. Held up in touch, he gave his hurdles plenty of air and was untidy in the closing stages where he faded tamely. There is plenty of time for him to develop, although the foundation is quite low at this juncture. 74

State Crown 3/1/2021 Plumpton 2m Handicap Hurdle (116)
State Crown finished runner-up over hurdles twice from as many starts since joining Evan Williams, and was fairly treated in the weights ahead of his handicap debut. The ground was likely softer than ideal and he drifted from 11/8 in the morning, to 11/4 at flagfall. His jumping had given no cause for trepidation on his previous outings, but he was steady and close to the second, close again at the third, and made a blunder at the sixth. Notwithstanding, he was better at those where he was ridden into the approach. Fairly keen in the early stages and racing prominently throughout, he went into the lead midway through the back straight. However, he was headed on the turn for home and would weaken from thereon in to finish a nine length third of six finishers. He was far from disgraced on this outing, and his unchanged mark is still workable on his best form. Nevertheless, he will likely appreciate a return to better ground. 109

Crassus 3/1/2021 Fairyhouse 2m?f Handicap Hurdle (119)
Crassus has performed very creditably during his hurdling career to date, and came into this contest on a very fair handicap mark. However, his chances were heavily compromised by what can be fairly described as unsuitable. While Crassus habitually jumps and travels well, he was restrained in the early stages to an inappropriate degree. A point illustrated by the first eight being covered by just over seven lengths, and the winning time being the slowest jumps race on the card by seconds per furlong against the standard. The rider also had a tendency to pull on the approach which resulted in Crassus getting too close to the third, and losing momentum at the last where he second guessed himself and hopped through the flight before landing awkwardly. By contrast, his being ridden into the last at Limerick was rewarded with a fine leap which put the seal on the race. Furthermore, Crassus had shown an aversion to the whip and though he lengthened nicely and established a lead between the final two prior to the last flight error, his ride on the run-in consisted of being pulled with one hand and whipped with the other which caused his head to go up and his stride to shorten. This is in no way a commentary on the rider's overall ability as a horseperson and certainly not a denigration of the human being in the saddle. However, assuming the winning plot horse did not have several additional lengths to spare, this riding performance very likely made the difference between victory and defeat. A rise of two pounds is not ideal for Crassus, but his best form is still superior to the tune of a few pounds so it is hoped that this experience has not eroded any of that edge. 119

Rock Chica 3/1/2021 Fairyhouse 2m?f Handicap Hurdle (108)
Rock Chica enjoyed the conditions when winning her second hurdles outing at Tipperary, and was outclassed in better company on her next two starts. The ground will have suited here, but her mark was fairly harsh based on her achievements. Usually a reasonable jumper, apart from getting close to the first and low at the last, she put in another fair round. Her mark remains unchanged however which will keep life difficult unless she either improves or finds a weak enough contest. 102

[Kotkijet]

Chepstow's Finale card looks quite likely to go ahead so the preview for that race will likely be up at some point today. If the meeting is abandoned then at least I will have some templates prepared for when the horses next appear. For now, the Kempton preview.

Kempton hosts its third juvenile hurdle of the season tomorrow, and while it is routinely above average in the grand scheme, it has generally not been amongst the strongest held at the Sunbury venue in recent years. Apart from when the Lanzarote was held at Carlisle in 2006, and frozen off in 2009, this juvenile has been a fixture on the card since 2002. Spectroscope, fourth in the 2003 renewal, would win that season's Triumph while the following year, Cherub took this contest ahead of landing the Grade One at Punchestown. L'Unique won this and the Anniversary in 2013, but the most prominent recent participant would be Redicean who was successful in both this and the Adonis in 2018. The latest edition could be a maiden if Bannister runs in the rescheduled Finale Hurdle, but it would still feature some interesting types including Kentucky Hardboot and Tinnahalla who renew their rivalry from Newbury, and three pricey flat recruits in More Than A Prince, Sage Advice and Table Mountain. Though a fair and flat right-handed circuit not stiff in nature, Kempton's winning DIs of 1.00 median, 1.19 mean, are in the lowest third of racecourses which emphasises its class demands. The clear round rate of 96.74% is fairer than average and the 97.78% rate for hurdling debutants makes it one of the most straightforward in the country. The low median SP and above average record of odd-on favourites also testify to the venue's reliable nature. The going is currently riding as soft, good to soft in places, and there is no rain forecast in the meantime.

Bannister bg T George f1-0-0 (-) 66 j5-1-2 (132) 114 125
Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) 0.5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/bannister-1

Starting his hurdling career earlier than most, Bannister ran with some credit at Stratford and Market Rasen in the summer before scoring at Southwell when left well clear in an attritional contest in early September. Since then, he competed in a pair of contests in France, finishing second at Compiegne and fifth at Auteuil when last seen in October. On both instances, he ran keenly and quickly established a clear lead. At Compiegne, he began to tire leaving the back, but while he was headed inside the final furlong, he still battled back bravely and was held by only a neck. The first three pulled well clear and winner Martator capped his campaign with a three length third in a course and distance Groupe III. Bannister's performance at Auteuil saw him employ similar tactics and though he steadied at the third and tenth while trailing his hind legs through the fourth, he jumped the remaining eight flights very neatly. Caught at the final flight, he was a spent force and weakened quickly, losing fourth at the line and beaten eight lengths. The winner has not been seen since, the runner-up competed in a pair of listed races before winning a Cagnes-Sur-Mer Chase, and the third and fourth have valeurs of 58 and 57 respectively. Though measuring this performance is not an exact science, a rating in the mid 120s looks appropriate. Bannister brings the strongest hurdling form to this contest and is a very good hurdler at best. However, the yard is not in good form at the moment and the eighty-four day absence might exacerbate his habitual keenness.

Kentucky Hardboot chg Mohamed Moubarak f11-1-2 (62) 66 j3-0-3 (118) 110 116
Starspangledbanner Danehill Dancer{14-c}(3.00) 2/1 Persistent 2nd Handicap Hurdle (123), Galway 2017
While Kentucky Hardboot won on his seasonal reappearance back in June, this came in a seven furlong Yarmouth handicap off 55 and his five subsequent outings saw him fail to match that effort on three occasions, and refuse to enter the stalls on the other two. Nevertheless, he was backed from 28/1 in the morning to 12/1 at the off ahead of his hurdling debut at this course and distance in October and while assisted by the winner's waywardness, he still finished within half a length and was upwards of fifteen lengths clear of two subsequent winners. He failed to match that effort next time against older horses at Huntingdon, but posted a new career best at Newbury last month when splitting useful recruits Goodbye Stranger and Leylak. There he hurdled quite well, if somewhat cautious, and it emerged afterwards that he lost his near-fore shoe which demonstrates his courage and perhaps explains his jumping and drift to the right on the run-in. Kentucky Hardboot should appreciate the return to Kempton and as the ground also looks suitable, his prospects are not readily dismissed.

More Than A Prince bg Olly Murphy f10-1-0 (70) 79
Oasis Dream (Galileo){20-a}(0.93) 3/1 Currahee 1st Handicap Hurdle (104), Cartmel 2009
Olly Murphy has yet to send a juvenile hurdler to Kempton, but is set to saddle two tomorrow. More Than A Prince had five runs as a two-year-old which culminated with a win in a Brighton nursery off 73. However, while not disgraced on his second outing this year, he has since finished closer to last than first in five starts including his latest three for Richard Hughes. He switched yards following a 58,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls in July and now has his attention turned to hurdling with Olly Murphy. Oasis Dream has just a 2.9% strike rate in the division and though Olly Murphy has a respectable first time out record, he has not had a winner from his last twenty-six in all races. Furthermore, More Than A Prince looks a suspect stayer and has been tried in different headgear on his last two outings to no avail.

Ray's The One bg Gary Moore f6-0-3 (68) 72
Mount Nelson (Bob Back){5-e}(1.50) 0.5 Barwick 1st Maiden Hurdle, Worcester 2016
Thrice placed in six outings on the flat, Ray's The One's two seconds in July came behind Sly Minx in a twelve furlong Catterick maiden, and Tamaris in a fourteen furlong Wolverhampton handicap off 70. Incidentally, each of those horses has since ran in juvenile hurdles, with the latter twice finishing third in ordinary company for Gary Moore. Horses formerly trained by Michael Bell have a healthy 31.58% winners to runners rate in the sphere, although none of the eleven who fetched less than 10,000 guineas at auction were able to win or post an RPR exceeding 108 during their initial hurdling campaigns. Ray's The One joined Gary Moore for 9,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale and is now in the hands of a trainer with a solid record in the division who has had three winners from six similarly priced horses. However, his record with juvenile hurdlers at Kempton reads as just one win from thirty-six since 2008/09. Sire Mount Nelson has had two winning juveniles from sixteen, which is a below average record, but the dam produced Barwick (Beat Hollow) to win a Worcester maiden, and the decent Father Time appears at 3/1 on the damline. Though he is an habitual front-runner who is likely to stay the trip, Ray's The One has been prone to hanging left which will not help him around Kempton.

Sage Advice bg Dr Richard Newland f6-1-3 (79) 85
Make Believe (Danehill Dancer){16-g}(1.15) 2/1 Lochalsh 1st Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2015
Joseph G Murphy has supplied five horses to the division since 2008/09, the most recent being the top class Mr Adjudicator. The progressive Sage Advice is set to be the latest recruit, with his six race flat career culminating with success in a seventeen runner Cork Maiden, and a third in a Tipperary handicap off 80 in October. Though drenched in sweat and running very green, he was able to run down the long time leader at Cork, with the next three being subsequent winners. Green and sweaty once again at Tipperary, he was not as effective in the finish, but still kept on into third without threatening the leaders. Fetching 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, he joins a Dr Richard Newland yard with the strongest winners to runners ratio in this field. The yard has had a winner this term in Orchestral Rain, although the even more expensive Indigo Lake could only manage a fourth placed finish on his hurdles debut at Catterick, and the stable's juveniles invariably improve with the benefit of experience. Make Believe's first crop of juveniles can already count a winner and a couple of placed horses, and the damline includes maiden hurdle winner Lockalsh (2/1) and the useful Father Sky (3/1). Sage Advice has a largely positive profile for a new recruit, although his temperament and the fact that he had a wind operation shortly after moving home are not ideal.

Son Of Oz chg Robert Stephens j1-0-0 (-) 66 65
Australia (Monsun){2-n}(0.49) 0.5 Normal Norman 1st Handicap Hurdle (120), Musselburgh 2019
Though a son of Australia and relative of several capable hurdlers, Son Of Oz fetched only 3,000 guineas as a yearling and was unfancied ahead of his racecourse debut in a Warwick juvenile last month. Always in the rear, his slow and cautious jumping evolved into slow and untidy jumping, and he finished the race last of nine. Trainer Robert Stephens saddled Beltor to win the Adonis Hurdle here in 2015, but Son Of Oz lacks any of the aforementioned's credentials.

Tinnahalla bg Olly Murphy f7-0-4 (75) 79 j1-0-0 (-) 103 107
Starspangledbanner (Sadler's Wells){1-s}(0.64) 2/1 Celestial Halo 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2008
While Tinnahalla failed to win in seven starts on the flat for Jamie Osborne, his efforts in three novices stakes at Lingfield, Ripon and Nottingham justified his rating of 75. The pedigree is a very interesting one for a recruit to the division as along with Starspangledbanner showing himself to be competent in this regard, Tinnahalla is a half-brother to Thomas Hobson and Drifter as well as being out of a just over half-sister to Triumph Hurdle winner Celestial Halo. There were concerns over his inability to settle and while he was not unfancied ahead of his hurdling debut at Newbury, those concerns did manifest in the contest. Though he was not fighting for his head, he did pull himself into a clear lead passing the stands. His jumping also suffered as he wandered into several of his flights while also getting in close on numerous occasions. He would maintain this lead until the approach to the penultimate flight and while he was readily outpaced by the front three, he was able to preserve an advantage of three lengths over the remainder of the field. It was not a disheartening introduction by any stretch of the imagination and he remains an interesting recruit to the division. Nevertheless, a demonstration of better jumping and settling is required before he inspires significant confidence.

Epsom Dreamer bf Michael Attwater f2-0-0 (-) 36
Raven's Pass (Dalakhani){9-c}(1.00) 3/1 Halla San 2nd Handicap Hurdle (125), Ayr 2009
Beaten by sixty-seven lengths on his racecourse debut at Lingfield in June, Epsom Dreamer bettered that performance with a near twenty length seventh of eight at Kempton in late November. Ravens Pass has a moderate winners to runners rate of 16%, but his improvement rate of 61.11% is more encouraging and fair handicapper Halla San appears at 3/1 on the damline. However, being out of a half-sister to Cracksman, better will have been expected on the flat and the trainer has yet to have a winner in this discipline from four runners.

Table Mountain bf Tom Symonds f7-1-1 (91) 93
Phoenix Reach (Mount Nelson){22-c}(1.00) 2/1 Ranch Hand 1st Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 2020
Though he is not one to produce champions, Phoenix Reach is one of the unheralded stallions of recent times. His winners to runners rate of 50% is surpassed only by Poliglote and Soldier Or Fortune for sires with twelve or more juvenile hurdlers since 2008/09. His progeny typically win their races during the summer months which is understandable given that the average official flat rating of such horses is just 56. Table Mountain is unique in this regard as her mark of 91 is twenty-three pounds higher than any other of Phoenix Reach's offspring. Her damline is also intriguing as along with winning novice Ranch Hand, Scorned (3/1), Passing Glance (3/1) and Desert Quest (4/2) are other notable relatives. Running with promise on the second of her first three flat outings, she improved considerably for the step up to two miles when second to Alphabetical at Ascot, with the pair twelve lengths clear of a subsequent triple winner. Travelling well into the race, she took the lead at the distance, but was worn down late on by the winner who was completing a four-timer. She flashed her tail repeatedly up the straight and drifted left close to the finish, although these movements all corresponded to the impact of the whip. Although five pounds out of the handicap, she very comfortably broke her maiden over the same course and distance a fortnight later, travelling comfortably into the race and being pushed out hands and heels to win by nearly five lengths She ran flat when stepped up in grade for the March Stakes at Goodwood, but was beaten by just over ten lengths in a listed race at Ascot where her weakening was exacerbated when the whip was drawn. She left Andrew Balding for 57,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale to join a Tom Symonds yard with a solid rate of four winners from seventeen in this discipline including stable star Song For Someone. However, three of these winners had gained hurdling experience in France and the other was a French flat recruit who won at the end of April. None of his nine flat recruits trained in Britain has won in the division from thirty-two attempts. Table Mountain is a tremendously curious and intriguing recruit and she was well spoken of in a recent stable tour. However, while it is plausible that she can handle the forecast ground effectively, there are concerns regarding her yard's record with flat recruits and the uncertainty as to how she might be ridden should she find herself under pressure.

Strong prospects
1. Kentucky Hardboot
Reasonable prospects
2. Table Mountain
3. Bannister
Feasible prospects
4. Tinnahalla
5. Sage Advice
Moderate prospects
6. More Than A Prince
7. Ray's The One
Negligible prospects
8. Son Of Oz
9. Epsom Dreamer