Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

[Kotkijet]

This is a busy week coming up so no idea when the reviews for today's races will be done. Hopefully, the sooner the better, but they will have to wait for the time being. I have previewed tomorrow's contests at Leopardstown and Kempton (which to be honest, looks better than the possible Grade One at Chepstow). I will try to get the Wetherby race done for this evening and just do a rough draft for Chepstow to be bolstered and posted should the meeting pass inspection. If it does not then I might use the morning to review Zanahiyr's race before moving onto the remainder of the week's contests which could see some interesting juveniles take on older horses.

PUNCHESTOWN
The maiden hurdle at Leopardstown tomorrow is comfortably one of the most influential of the season and has a better record of producing good hurdlers than many pattern and winners' races. Since 2004, it has delivered a Triumph Hurdle winner in Ivanovich Gorbatov, two winners of the Punchestown Champion 4YO in Hisaabaat and Quatre Heures, and Sir Erec and Mr Adjudicator each won the Spring Juvenile Hurdle since its upgrade to Grade One. Other classy sorts include Ebadiyan, Let's Dance, Plinth, Thousand Stars, Flaxen Flare Sky's The Limit and Buiseness Sivola. While as a rule of thumb, experience generally pays, the past eight winners of this contest were all making their hurdling debuts. They also had a touch of class on the flat, bringing official marks ranging from 80 to 109. This season's newcomers look up to scratch with four rated eighty or above, and the 101 rated Iberia brings the highest mark to the sphere since Sir Erec won this race two years ago. Nevertheless, those with hurdles experience still have respectable form including Dark Voyager's second to Zanahiyr at Ballinrobe, and Ilmig's second to Druid's Altar at Punchestown ahead of the aforementioned. Leopardstown, a largely level racecourse with a slight rise in the straight, is fair in its nature and its clear round rate of 95.84% is broadly average. Though it can still take some getting as its winning DIs of 1.00 median and 1.22 mean attest. The going is currently yielding to soft with occasional showers forecast in the meantime.

Triumph Hurdle
Coltor 66/1
Dark Voyager 66/1
Ilmig 100/1

Fred Winter
Dark Voyager 33/1
Flying Scotsman 33/1
Ilmig 33/1

Ahaziah gbg Mrs Denise Foster f10-0-0 (37) 56 j2-0-0 (-) 99 102
Alhebayeb (Owington){1-a}(3.00) 3/1 Good Buy Bailey's 4th Juvenile Hurdle, Taunton 1988
A lowly rated maiden after ten starts on the flat, Ahaziah jumped poorly when ninth on his hurdling debut at Fairyhouse in November. Keen in the early stages next time at Cork, he jumped better and was still in contention at two out, but would fade into a nineteen length fourth. It was a career best effort and there can be further improvement to come, but he is still a long way from being competitive in this company.

Charlie Bassett bg Noel Meade f10-0-7 (80) 86 j2-0-0 (-) 100 116
Lawman (Xaar){13-b}(2.00) 0.5 Lambeau Field 3rd Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
Charlie Bassett has yet to win in ten starts on the flat but has been running to a respectable level. He was in the process of running a decent race on his hurdles bow at Down Royal and looked likely to finish second to Longclaw before being brought down two out. Following three runs on the flat, he returned to hurdling at Fairyhouse two weeks ago where he jumped well after the first two flights and was still in touch three furlongs out. However, his questionable stamina told as he faded late on and finished a thirteen length fourth. While the yard took this race in 2006, it has not reached the frame in seven subsequent attempts and Charlie Bassett will need a sharper test.

Coltor bg D K Weld f3-1-0 (86) 83
Free Eagle (Red Ransom){14-c}(0.89) 2/2 Limini 1st Dawn Run Mares' Novices' Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
Dermot Weld has not saddled a juvenile hurdler since February 2015, but while he took Group Ones in three different countries this season on the flat, he does have a strong historical record in the sphere. Unaccompanied, Party Airs and Iron County Xmas won graded level juvenile hurdles as did Hisaabaat who was unseated when introduced in this contest in 2011. Despite failing to win, Proper Article (fifth in the Fred Winter), Majestic Concorde (a future big handicap winner) and Diplomat (who eventually won a Grade One hurdle in America) all made their hurdling debuts in this race. Coltar made his racecourse debut in late August and after twice finishing fifth in maidens at Navan, he broke his duck at the third time of asking in an eleven furlong Killarney maiden on soft ground in early October. Sporting a visor and noseband, Coltor was slow to start and ran very green. He made his challenge turning for home and while not completely clued up on the game, was able to stay on to lead inside the final furlong and was a couple of lengths up on the line. The runner up has since scored in a Gowran maiden and the third has placed in this sphere. Free Eagle has made a promising start to his career in the division having produced two winners from his first six runners, and the damline is also encouraging. Along with being out of a half-sister to the dam of Limini, the likes of useful juvenile Call My Guest (3/1) and the yard's brilliant stayer and Champion Hurdle sixth Vintage Crop (4/2) also show on the pedigree. Coltor is a very intriguing recruit to the division and although he might not be forward enough at this stage to do himself justice, he is still entitled to respect.

Complete Fiction bg Sabrina J Harty f8-0-1 (54) 60
Make Believe (Dubai Destination){19-c}(0.78) 0.5 Never Do Nothing 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Musselburgh 2020
Beginning his career in the summer for Dermot Murphy, Complete Fiction's best placing was a thirteen length third at Leopardstown on his second start. Since then, he has not placed better than eighth in six outings including last time on his stable debut. Sabrina Harty does well in the division with three winners from eleven and an improvement rate of 80%. However, her better horses were rated much higher on the flat and neither of her runners in this race fared well. Make Believe has already produced a winner from his first crop and Complete Fiction is a half-brother to two winning hurdlers. However, his flat form is poor and he would be of more interest in a much lesser event.

Dark Voyager bg W P Mullins f7-1-1 (77) 76 j2-0-1 (-) 123 128
Raven's Pass (Montjeu){7-a}(0.83) 0.5 A Wave Of The Sea 1st Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2020
Willie Mullins has won this race twice in recent years with Meri Devie and Mr Adjudicator winning in 2016 and 2017. Both of these were having their first starts over hurdles and of the yard's eleven runners since 2005, only Buiseness Sivola, fifth at odds-on, had ran over hurdles for the yard. Dark Voyager's flat career ended with a win at Galway in August off a mark of 70 and being a half-brother to the high class juvenile A Wave Of The Sea, was well fancied to make a winning hurdles debut at Ballinrobe. However, in opposition that day was Zanahiyr. He set a steady gallop, jumped well apart from at the last and appeared to be travelling best at one stage, trading at 1.2 in-running. He did not appear to give his best in the final battle but was far from disgraced going down by just over two lengths. Next time at Punchestown, he once again started favourite and jumped well for the most part until getting tired in the closing stages. Dark Voyager definitely has class about him but his resolve and, more pertinently his stamina, are questionable. While he should see out a contest which places less emphasis on endurance, a large field contest at Leopardstown would not provide him with such comforts.

Firstman bg A J Martin f12-2-3 FrF 79.2 (69) 76
Zoffany (Teofilo){23}(0.45) 3/1 Samaurai Way 1st Handicap Chase (119), Southwell 2010
Firstman won his final two starts for Jean-Claude Rouget, namely a maiden at Pau in January and a Vichy claimer in May which saw him leave France for €27,016. While his French form gave him an equivalent rating of 79.2, four runs in Ireland have seen him drop to 69 which is a mark which saw him beaten by over nine lenghts at Dundalk eleven days ago. Zoffany is a useful sire in the division and there are winners further back on the damline, but Firstman makes no immediate promise. Especially as his trainer has saddled no first-time-out winners from sixty attempts since 2008/09.

Flying Scotsman bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien 6-2-0 (87) 86 j2-0-1 (-) 105 109
Galileo (Mastercraftsman){1-w}(0.60) 3/1 Sir Frank Morgan 1st Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 2015
Flying Scotsman has a flat rating of 87 courtesy of a quickfire double at the Galway Festival which included a win over Dark Voyager. He was unfancied ahead of his jumps debut at Punchestown where he finished fifth and was beaten by over thirty lengths. His chances there were heavily compromised by forcing to check at the second, but this poor round was entirely of his own doing. Next time at Cork, he drifted again from 6/4 to 3/1. Sweating up beforehand, he approached his hurdles with little enthusiasm and was either close to, or untidy over most of the flights. Held up in midfield, he never landed a blow on the leaders, but he did pass beaten rivals in the straight and was clear of the remainder. More assured jumping is fundamental to his future prospects and a sounder surface will also be helpful. He would not be written off entirely given that the yard previously won this race with Sir Erec for the same owner. Nevertheless, the yards experienced runners both failed to breach the first then and Flying Scotsman would be of more interest sent handicapping.

French Aseel chg Miss Ellmarie Holden f9-1-4 FrF (82.5) 84
French Fifteen (Green Tune){31}(1.40) 3/1 French Crusader 2nd Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (135), Newbury 2019

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/french-aseel

It has been months in the making, but French Aseel is finally going to make his hurdling debut and in one of life's amusing coincidences, he is set to face the similarly named French Asset. While of a similar flat standard to his nearly namesake, French Aseel managed to win a race which came by way of a six length victory at Lyon on his seasonal reappearance. He has subsequently ran creditably without winning and was last seen finishing fifth in a 1,300 metre Saint Cloud handicap off an equivilent 83.6 where he finished strongly having been given too much to do. Ellmarie Holden has done well with her handful of juvenile hurdlers with three of the five winning including sole previous French import Lachares who won twice after costing just €6,000. French Aseel left Philippe Decouz for ten times that amount at the Arqana Deauville Summer Sale but his oft delayed debut was put off further when getting withdrawn at Cork earlier this month due to a Stone Bruise. French Fifteen has yet to be tested as a sire in GB or Ireland, but he has had winning juveniles in France at a lower level his father, Turtle Bowl, is two winners from three in this division. Jumpers don't appear in the pedigree until the third dam who produced the capable hurdler French Crusade, and is the third dam of the magnificent De Bon Coeur. French Aseel is another very interesting recruit but the time it has taken to finally get him to the racecourse is somewhat troubling.

French Asset bg Gavin Cromwell f5-0-1 (75) 80 j2-0-0 (-) 82 82
Siyouni (Galileo){9-c}(0.73) 2/1 No Heretic 3rd Novices' Hurdle, Newbury 2016
Runner-up on his penultimate start for Sir Michael Stoute, French Asset was easy to back ahead of his hurdles debut at Galway in October where he his jumping was marked largely by greenness and he began to lose touch a half mile from home before finishing ahead of only one rival. He once again lacked fluency on his latest outing at Fairyhouse and finished tailed off. He has not come remotely close to matching the best of his flat ability thus far.

Hisnameis Mrdevitt bg Peter Fahey f10-2-0 (67) 72
Epaulette (Diesis){20-c}(0.87) 2/2 Insoumis 1st Claiming Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2016
Peter Fahey saddled Room To Roam to finish second in this contest three years ago at a big price and Hisnameis Mrdebitt will likely also start unfancied. Twice a winner on the flat for John James Feane, his first success came at Limerick in June of 58 and he followed up Gowran Park nine days later. He was not disgraced off 73 at Leopardstown at the end of July but has been lacklustre in three subsequent outings. Epaulette's sole juvenile hurdler failed to win in four starts and his is not a prominent sireline. He is out of a sister to the dam of a winning claimer in France and the mighty Min appears in the distance of the damline at 4/4. Hisnameis Mrdevitt is not a forlorn recruit to the sphere but his profile and form are too patchy to warrant observation in this contest.

Iberia bc J Halley f8-1-3 (101) 108
Galileo (Danehill){8-f}(0.73) 3/2 Addicted 4th Juvenile Hurdle, Wincanton 2006
John Halley has been the recipient of fifteen ex-Ballydoyle horses since 2008/09, including the 103 rated Minneapolis. However, only Foreign Secretary has been a winner and none improved for the switch between codes. With an official mark 101, Iberia is rated higher than most juvenile hurdlers and while his best form came at two, most notably when finishing third in the Royal Lodge Stakes, his reappearance in the Derrinstown Stud Derby Trial was still commendable. He hung left when undertaking pacemaking duties in the Irish Derby and his only other start saw him finish last of ten in a listed race at Leopardstown. Poor though these efforts may be, the RPRs he recorded would still be the strongest in this field. Galileo wins his fair share of races in the division but his improvement rate is just 30.77% and there is a dearth of jumpers on the damline. Furthermore, that he has not joined Joseph O'Brien is quite telling insofar as his esteem is concerned.

Ilmig bg Mrs John Harrington f2-1-1 (-) 83 j2-0-1 (-) 114 120
Galileo (Empire Maker){A4}(0.96) 3/2 Lorikeet 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Listowel 2005
Ilmig started off as a Ballydoyle horse, but began his racing career in early October with Jessica Harrington. He was already off the mark on his second start and well supported ahead of his debut at Punchestown. But for one error, he put in a good round of jumping on and finished a one paced second to Druid's Altar with Dark Voyager and Flying Scotsman upwards of seventeen lengths behind. He started odds-on next time at Fairyhouse and jumped into the lead half a mile out while travelling well within himself. However, he found himself outpaced on the turn for home and would be left behind by his pacier opponents. It was a similar case on his Punchestown outing and being a flat winner over fourteen furlongs on soft ground, he looks likely to need a sterner test than that afforded by Fairyhouse. Tomorrow's conditions ought to suit him better in a race won by the yard by Out Voted in 2008. However, the trainer also saddled twelve losers in the contest and her strike rate in December and January is just 5.17%, compared to 13.79% through the remainder of the season.

Loved Out bg Thomas Mullins f5-0-1 (66) 68 j1-0-1 (-) 105 103
Requinto (Mister Baileys){10-b}(1.15) 3/1 Brightner 1st Novices' Hurdle, Taunton 1988
Loved Out was no better than a fair maiden on the flat, but by dint of poor opposition, was backed into 5/4 favouritism ahead of his hurdles bow at Punchestown last month. His jumping was not good however as he steadied into his early flights and made several errors ranging from getting to close or going too big. Though he started off prominently, these mistakes cost him ground and while he still tracked the leaders, he also gave them too much rope in a critical stage of the race. It is possible that he could have won with a more assertive ride, but this should not detract from the fact that his jumping was an even greater factor in his underperformance. Loved Out is not devoid of ability, limited though it may be, and he can build on that effort with experience. Furthermore, Peckham Springs, who was over four lengths behind Loved Out in third won next time at Fairyhouse ahead of Ilmig. Thomas Mullins' two runners in this contest each finished third so while there is a fair amount to find on form, Loved Out's cause is not entirely hopeless.

Royal Marksman bg Thomas Coyle f7-0-1 (41) 48
Fulbright (Woodman){14-c}(1.67) 2/1 Beseiged 1st Handicap Hurdle (110), Market Rasen 2005
Just the one son of Exceed And Excel's seven to have tried has produced a winning juvenile and Fulbright's first attempt in Royal Marksman looks unlikely to double the tally. His best effort was a third off 45 at Dundalk in late October and the yard has yet to score in this division.

Trebizond bg Henry De Bromhead Unraced
Golden Horn (Night Shift){4-n}(1.25) 0.5 Burns Night 1st Handicap Hurdle (83), Stratford 2013
Initially costing Godolphin 300,000 guineas as a yearling, Trebizond was knocked down for ?34,000 at the Goffs UK September Sale. A half-brother to the dam of Palace Pier and to the winner of a moderate handicap hurdle winner, he joins a yard who was successful in 2019 with Aspire Tower and Havingagoodtime, but otherwise has a low strike rate in the field at 8.33%. Golden Horn is the type to do well as a sire of juveniles and his runner to date, Topaki Star, has been a winner. Racecourse debutants have a moderate record in the division although Sea Beat did finish fourth in the 2013 renewal of this race and Rachael Blackmore is an interesting booking.

Next In Line bf James M Barrett f7-2-1 (80) 84
Excelebration (Makfi){1-e}(2.43) 2/2 Voix du Soir 1st Handicap Hurdle (121), Dieppe 2020
The cross of Excelebration and Makfi is about as dreadful as one could find for the division. However, as Dutch Admiral and Awkwafina have shown this season, dreadful is not the same as hopeless. Next In Line landed a double within the space of a week during the summer, following a Gowran Park win off 65 with success at Galway off 73. She disappointed next time at Tramore but was better on his return at Dundalk a month ago when second in an extended ten furlong handicap off 80. None of the trainer's six juvenile hurdlers have won in fourteen attempts and none of the sire's fifteen have won in forty-five. The ground and trip should not been too much of an issue, but her overall profile is patchy and a tendency to take a keen hold will be detrimental here.

Poetica bf John Joseph Hanlon f6-0-1 (54) 61 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Lope De Vega (Motivator){10}(1.22) 0.5 Lilypad 1st Mares' Handicap Hurdle (98), Uttoxeter 2020
Poetica raced six times on the flat for Mark Johnson with her best performance coming when just over two lengths fourth in a Chelmsford handicap off 58. She since left for ?3,500 guineas at the Goffs UK Silver Yearling Sale and was unfancied ahead of her hurdling debut Cork. Following a mistake at the first, her saddle slipped at the second flight of hurdles and an error strewn round was concluded with her unseating three from home. While that run can probably be ignored, she still has plenty to prove in this field.

Pushover grf Noel C Kelly f6-0-0 (56) 57
Hellvelyn (Petorius){8-k}(3.00) 1/0 Soft Touch 1st Novices' Hurdle, Worcester 1999
Initially rated 59 after four starts for Steph Hollinshead, Pushover's Irish career has seen her finish last in both starts in Dundalk handicaps. Her dam won a poor novices' hurdle, but there are stamina concerns for this newcomer who already has to overcome a huge class defecit.

[Kotkijet]

Reserves
Dashing Diamond bf Martin Hassett f13-0-4 (62) 69 j2-0-0 (-) 0 ?
Excelebration (Raven's Pass){20-d}(7.00) 3/2 Falling Rain 2nd 3YO Hurdle, Fontainebleu 2015
Showed that her Tipperary plunge had some merit when running creditably at Listowel yesterday.

Laralei bf Noel C Kelly f6-0-1 (52) 54 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Hot Streak (Mujadil){7}(1.86) 3/1 Double Account 1st Handicap Hurdle (114), Huntingdon 2003
Jumped atrociously and was detached early on during her hurdling debut at Fairyhouse.

Duck And Vanish bg Denis Gerard Hogan f5-0-2 (72) 77
Lope De Vega (Shaamit){10}(1.67) 0.5 The Tiddly Tadpole 1st Handicap Hurdle (115), Hereford 2012
Broadly consistent in four outings this season for William Haggas, he was twice runner-up in twelve furlong maidens at Lingfield and Pontefract. Fetching 13,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, he joins a yard which gets winners in the sphere, but with a poor strike rate and an improvement rate of 28.57%. Duck And Vanish is a half-brother to two winning hurdlers and Lope De Vega gets winners, albeit with only a fair record overall. Not the worst newcomer to the sphere but Duck And Vanish is known to hang and has already undergone two wind operations.

Strong prospects
1. Coltor
Reasonable prospects
2. French Aseel
3. Dark Voyager
4. Ilmig
5. Loved Out
Feasible prospects
6. Trebizond
7. Flying Scotsman
8. Charlie Bassett
9. Iberia
Moderate prospects
10. Dashing Diamond (R)
11. Hisnameis Mrdevitt
Negligible prospects
12. Ahaziah
13. Next In Line
14. Duck And Vanish (R)
15. French Asset
16. Complete Fiction
17. Firstman
18. Poetica
19. Pushover
20. Royal Marksman
21. Laralei (R)

[Kotkijet]

KEMPTON
In the years leading up to Kempton's juvenile becoming an introductory contest in 2016, it was won by some useful types including Starluck, Irish Saint and Bivouac. Its new conditions have not been too detrimental to the race's quality, with Master Blueyes and Redicean going on to win the course's Adonis Hurdle in February. The winners' mean and median seasonal RPRs of 136 and 137 indicate that the race usually goes to a decent type and this year's renewal looks well up to scratch. Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson have each landed this contest on multiple occasions and are all set to be represented with live prospects tomorrow. Ambassador and Honneur d'Ajonc ran with credit on their respective hurdles debuts while Amy Murphy, Gary Moore and Olly Murphy introduce pricey flat recruits. Kempton is a fair and flat circuit but although it can appear to be a speed track, its winning DIs of 0.98 median, 1.16 mean, are lower than average and the case remains when compared to the average runner. While this is due in part to the quality of horse its races attract, Kempton is a course which can become testing on softer ground. Nevertheless, its clear round rate of 96.86% and completion rate of 91.55% are both above average, emphasising the fair nature of the venue. The going is currently good to soft and while showers are expected overnight, it is forecast to be dry from 8am onwards.

Triumph Hurdle
Heross Du Seuil 33/1

Fred Winter
Her Indoors 25/1

Alborkan bg Amy Murphy f8-2-3 (75) 80
Joshua Tree (One Cool Cat){13-c}(0.60) 4/1 Liwali 1st 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Pau 2002
During the summer, Amy Murphy won four races in the division. Three with Soldier On Parade and another with Topkapi Star. Alborkan was offered at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and the winning bid of 38,000 guineas was made by Venetia Williams. While Ms Williams is no slouch when it comes to training juveniles, Alborkan has returned to his initial home. His latest three outings on the flat were decided by a neck or less, and Alborkan got the best of two of these battles including at Kempton over eleven furlongs, and when last seen at Yarmouth over ten heavy furlongs. The latter contest was a three way go and Alborkan proved himself tougher than the proverbial old boots when fending off a subsequent winner to win on the nod. His rating of 75 looks a fair reflection of his abilities and he should have no problems getting the trip over hurdles. Joshua Tree has only had the one juvenile hurdler thus far, but sons of Montjeu invariably make good stallions in the division including the likes of Authorized, Camelot, Motivator and Pour Moi. This is a tough race in which to be introduced, but Alborkan's form is up to scratch, he has the right attitude, his trainer has been amongst the winners recently so he should not be underestimated.

Ambassador bg Dan Skelton f5-0-2 (61) 66 j1-0-1 (-) 106 107
Invincible Spirit (Galileo){19}(1.00) 2/2 Fin Vin De Leu 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Warwick 2010
Formerly with Richard Fahey and fetching ?16,000 at the Goffs UK Silver Sale, Ambassador has the lowest flat rating in this line-up. Nevertheless, the yard sent the 67 rated Stephen Hero to finish second in this contest in 2013 and Ambassador's hurdling debut at Warwick was not without promise. Tracking the leader throughout, he was slightly baulked at the first and took a fairly keen hold early on. Though he was slightly big over the fourth and clumsy at the penultimate flight, he posted a respectable round of hurdling. He did little wrong when outjumped at the last or outbattled in the closing stages, and has set a nice foundation for his new career. Ambassador would be entitled to be competitive in ordinary company, however, he is unlikely to threaten the upper reaches of the division and this contest features some potentially useful types.

Cloud Thunder grg Heather Main f7-0-4 (76) 82 j1-0-0 (-) 78 85
Poet's Voice (Smarty Jones){22-d}(1.29) 2/2 Uncle Muf PU Maiden Hurdle, Southwell 2015
Cloud Thunder failed to win in seven attempts on the flat, but went into his hurdling career with a succession of runner-up spots and a rating of 76. Though he was suffering a case of seconditis and traded as low as 1.03 when gubbed at Kempton, any suggestion that he might be ungenuine would be an unjust accusation. Nevertheless, starting in the Summit Hurdle, he was thrown in at the deep end and he did himself no favours by being keen early on or jumping in a novicey style. He lost his position turning for home and ultimately finished a tired horse. On breeding, there is little reason for him to surpass his flat ability and unless he improves drastically for the experience, his prospects might hinge on the type of rating he eventually receives.

Heross Du Seuil bg Nicky Henderson f1-1-0 (-) -
Rail Link (Equerry){u}(3.00) 2/2 Defi Du Seuil 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2017

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/heross-du-seuil

Micka?l Seror has, in recent years, supplied the division with two useful juveniles in Fanfan du Seuil and Call Me Lord, and two of his exports are set to make their GB debuts in this contest. The first of the pair, Heross du Seuil, won his sole outing in an AQPS flat race at Moulins back in August. Settled in midfield, he went to the front turning in and ran out a comfortable three length winner. The form does not amount to much as the race has produced just the one minor winner, but he won in pleasing fashion. Three of Nicky Henderson's five ex-French bumper recruits, Vasco du Ronceray, Domperignon du Lys and Grand Roi, have been useful winners and all were successful first time out. Furthermore, although Paros disappointed at Sandown, his other two juveniles this season have won and he also took this race with Charli Parcs and Bivouac in recent years. Just one of Rail Link's sixteen juveniles have been winners in GB/IRE, but his record with three-year-olds in France is a more respectable with a 25% winners to runners rate. His dam finished second over hurdles and half-sister was runner-up in a bumper. However, it gets more interesting beyond this as the dam is also a half-sister to Tommy Whittle second Catamaran du Seuil, and to the dam of Triumph Hurdle winner Defi du Seuil. This is a tough first assignment but Heross Du Seuil is unexposed, has reportedly schooled well and has a most inriguing profile.

Honneur d'Ajonc bg Mrs Jane Williams j1-0-1 (-) 109 113
Diamond Boy (April Night){8-i}(1.00) 0.5 Destin d'Ajonc 1st Prix Pride Of Kildare, Auteuil 2016
Racecourse debutants for Nick and Jane Williams have been a common feature of this season and Honneur d'Ajonc attracted support ahead of his pleasing introduction at Exeter last month. Apart from being big at the first and getting close to the third and fifth, he put in a decent round of jumping first time and he travelled nicely throughout. While he never looked like threatening the Monmiral, subsequently an impressive winner of the Summit Hurdle, he maintained a prominent position and was always doing enough to repel the challenges for second place. Honneur d'Ajonc has solid credentials but does look the type to develop with age and would probably conditions better in Chepstow's Finale Hurdle should that meeting go ahead.

Jalwan bg Gary Moore f8-0-2 (75) 79
Wicked Strong (Cherokee Run){8-h}(3.57) US pedigree
Purchased by and to run in the ownership of Noel Fehily, eight race maiden Jalwan joined Gary Moore from the John Butler yard for 40,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August sale. Despite not picking up a contest, he has run very consistently in races of around a mile mark and the form has generally been solid for the level. The furthest he raced has been over nine and a half furlongs but while he was closing at the end on that occasion, it was likely more a case of the frontrunners slowing rather than him finding an extra gear. Stallion Wicked Strong has his first crop of jumpers this season. A runner up in the Travers Stakes, he never won beyond nine furlongs and neither yet have any of his offspring although his sire Hard Spun did produce Lil Rockerfeller. Damsire Cherokee Run has also had few descendants in the division, but one of them was the useful Unanimite. Being of American stock, there are no jumpers on the damline. There is a distinct lack of stamina and the closest black type relative is Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby at 4/4. No juvenile since 2008/09 started their career with John Butler and Jalwan does not fit the profile of one that can obviously thrive in the sphere. Gary Moore sent Beat The Judge to win the 2018 edition of this contest at 25/1, but his other eight runners have been beaten and this year's renewal looks much stronger.

More Than A Prince bg Olly Murphy f10-1-0 (70) 79
Oasis Dream (Galileo){20-a}(0.93) 3/1 Currahee 1st Handicap Hurdle (104), Cartmel 2009
Five runs as a two-year-old culminated with a win in a Brighton nursery off 73. However, while not disgraced on his second outing this year, More Than A Prince has since finished closer to last than first in five starts including his latest three for Richard Hughes. He switched yards following a 58,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls in July and now has his attention turned to hurdling with Olly Murphy. Oasis Dream has just a 2.9% strike rate in the division and though Olly Murphy has a respectable first time out record, he has not had a winner from his last twenty-six in all races. Furthermore, More Than A Prince looks a suspect stayer and has been tried in different headgear on his last two outings to no avail.

Royaume Uni bbg Gary Moore f3-1-0 FrF 36 (79.2) 75 j1-0-0 (-) 88 90
Galileo (Lagunas){4-r}(0.58) 1/2 Nordano 3rd Finale Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Chepstow 2019

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/royaume-uni

Royaume Uni won one of his three starts on the flat for Andre Fabre and he ran to marks approaching 80. He is also from the family of fair juvenile Nordano and has joined a yard which enjoys success in the division. However, there was a decided lack of fluency on his hurdling debut at Sandown and he was a beaten horse by the distance. He looks like the yard's first string on jockey bookings and the yard's flat imports tend to improve for their debut outings. Nevertheless, this will be very necessary given the substandard nature of his Sandown performance.

Siroco Jo cg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1
Hurricane Cat (Vertical Speed){4-r}(1.86) 1/1 Cyclone Jo 1st 4yo Conditions Hurdle, Compiegne 2018

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/siroco-jo

Paul Nicholls has won this race with Vicenzo Mio, Irish Saint and Ranjaan while Thyme White finished second last year as did San Benedeto who made his stable debut in the 2014 renewal. Siroco Jo comes into the race after a solitaty start which saw him finish second in the Prix de l'Orbiquet at Clairefontaine at the beginning of August. While he was recieving weight from the first and third, the former had won last time at Le Lion d'Angers ahead of Hystery Bere before finishing fifth in a listed hurdle at Auteuil, while the latter had finished fourth in the listed Prix Go Ahead. Setting off into a clear lead and taking a keen hold, Siroco Jo was decidedly green throughout. Jumping left over the first three, he ran wide on the turns and began to steady into his hurdles which saw him forfeit the lead. He got in close to three out, but was decent over the last two and though relegated to third turning in, he battled to regain second on the run-in and only went down by a head on the line. Given the blatant nature of his inexperience, it was a fine debut effort to split the two and he may have won had he been quicker to get the hang of racing. Sire Hurricane Cat has had just the two juvenile hurdlers in GB/IRE, but one of them was the dual winning Thounder and he has a good winners to runners rate of 29.03% in France. Siroco Jo's full-sister won a conditions hurdle at Compiegne and his grandam was a half-sister to Prix des Drags winner Indien Bleu and decent three-year-old Dandy Bleu. He is sourced by the aforementioned Micka?l Seror and his aforementioned graduates, Call Me Lord and Fanfan du Seuil, also had hurdles experience before crossing La Manche. Siroco Jo showed definite signs of ability on his debut and if he turns up at Kempton slightly less backward, he poses a serious threat. Notwithstanding, his jumping out to the left needs to have been ironed out in the interim as it will not help him at Kempton.

Warranty bg Harry Whittington f6-1-1 (68) 67 j1-0-0 96 100
Authorized (Giant's Causeway{16-c}(0.84) 1/1 Fally Jem 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2018
On his final start for Mark Johnston, Warranty won a moderate handicap at Beverley back in July. Lowly though that race was, the form has worked out well and though his racing on better ground on that occasion may have enhanced his superiority, he still did it very easily and it was enough to warrant an auction price of ?36,000. His jumps debut came at Wetherby last month and after being available at 9/1 in the morning, was backed down to 5/1 at the off. However, it was clear from the outset that he was likely to struggle as a string of sloppy and hesitant jumps saw him shuffle back to the rear of the field. While he attempted to make headway on the leaders, he never looked like moving into a challenging position and his sole reasonable jump at the penultimate flight was followed by a steady bunny-hop at the last. It would be difficult to assess his ability in isolation from his jumping as it was the latter which suffocated the former. By Authorized and closely related to dual three-year-old listed chase winner The Revenant, Warranty is well bred for the discipline and he will not want for stamina so it would be too soon to write him off. He might be better suited by a small field affair on a stiff track in testing ground. However, there was little encouragement to be drawn from his debut performance alone and tomorrow's conditions are highly unlikely to suit.

Her Indoors bf Alan King 6-1-2 (76) 80 j1-0-1 (-) 119 117
Raven's Pass (Zafonic){22-d}(2.60) 2/2 Next Round 1st Prix Predicateur (L,126), Auteuil 2014
The listed fillies' hurdle at Aintree had been the target for Her Indoors before she had even run on the flat this season, let alone registering her first success in a twelve furlong Lingfield handicap in September. Though representing a yard with a strong record in that contest, her SP was three times her morning price of 6/1. She was not the fluent jumper on her hurdling debut as she needed encouragement into her hurdles and got in close to the second and fourth while landing steeply at the last. She was no match for the comfortable winner, but was able to out-speed Megan from the elbow. The diminished jumping test certainly worked in her favour and it is unlikely that she would have finished second with a full compliment of hurdles to jump. Nevertheless, she would still have been a long way clear of the remainder and is entitled to become more proficient with experience. Furthermore, Alan King's eight runners in this race have collected three wins and two seconds since 2008 and this contest is the first choice from a series of entries held during the festive period. These conditions are likely to play to her strengths and she receives a useful sex allowance, although she will still need to improve her hurdling.

Sarceaux grf Alexandra Dunn f3-0-0 FrF 30.5 (67.1) 62
Rajsaman (Elusive City){16-g}(0.67) 0.5 Saint Contest 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2016

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/sarceaux

Five of the sixteen Mikel Delzangles exports have been winners in this division, including 2012 Fred Winter runner-up Edeymi. While four of his former inmates fetched upwards of €100,000 at the Arqana sales, Sarceaux left the yard for just €16,016 following a claimer at Dieppe back in July. Finishing fourth on that occasion, the form has not been particularly well advertised and the runner-up, Highlander Madrik may be a familiar name as he was tailed off behind Talking About You at Fontwell in September. Sarceaux did win on her penultimate start at Le Croise Laroche and the form has a better shape to it as the runner-up won next time while the third has since won four times and is currently rated 80. Sarceaux did not look the most determined on that occasion but it can be noted that though her win came on good, her defeat last time was on soft ground. Rajsaman scored in the sphere at the third attempt with stablemate Jersey Grey and Sarceaux's half-brother Saint Contest had fair placed form as a juvenile hurdler. Sarceaux does not have the worst profile, but horses bought through French claimers win less than their fair share and others in this field have stronger cases.

Sly Minx bf Chris Gordon f8-1-3 (74) 77 j1-0-1 (-) 26 27
Sixties Icon (Thousand Words){4-i}(0.57) 3/1 Sattelight PU Mares' Novices' Hurdle, Wincanton 2004
Sly Minx was beaten by around nine lengths in a listed race at Lingfield back in June and that was the margin she won a Catterick maiden the following month. While she is by Sixties Icon, a sire with two winners in the sphere this season, there is nothing on the damline suggesting that she can make a hurdler and this was reflected in a very poor round of jumping when hopelessly tailed off at Fontwell. Chris Gordon saddled King Cnut to finish third of sixth in the 2017 renewal of this contest, but while Sly Minx might be happier on less testing ground, she still has a great deal to prove.

Strong prospects
1. Heross Du Seuil
Reasonable prospects
2. Siroco Jo
3. Her Indoors
4. Alborkan
Feasible prospects
5. Honneur d'Ajonc
6. Ambassador
Moderate prospects
7. Royaume Uni
8. Warranty
9. Sarceaux
Negligible prospects
10. Jalwan
11. Sly Minx
12. More Than A Prince
13. Cloud Thunder

Great preview Again Kotkijet !! , decide to go with Palm beach here ,

Aaaah... That was Awkwa(fina)rd. Going to be fun trying to figure what happened there :/

[BigChaang]

Going with Flying scotsman at leopardstown tomorrow , Becoming a bit of a cliff horse for me ,
having backed for the Triumph hdl , and now the Boodles , keeping the faith for the time being.

[Kotkijet]

The Finale Hurdle is looking likelier than not to get washed off which will be a shame, but hopefully it can be rescheduled for Tolworth Hurdle day, as is tradition.

Though a regular fixture at Wetherby's Rowland Meyrick/Castleford meeting, tomorrow's juvenile hurdle is generally no better than the average contest at the venue and has little bearing on the better races in the Spring. Albert's Back achieved the best seasonal RPR for a winner when beating Turning Gold and Cornerstone Lad in 2017, and there is a chance for one or two useful prospects to emerge from this assembly. Donald McCain's Irish recruit, Danger Money, will be the highest rated flat horse to race in Britain this season and French winner Hacker des Places is likely better than he appeared on his Wincanton showing. Wetherby's winning DIs of 1.00 median, 1.21 mean, put it in the bottom quarter of tracks in the UK and Ireland and those figures are 0.31 lower than that of the average runner. The clear round and completion rates are also lower than average and with the ground already soft with heavy showers forecast overnight, a stern stamina test looks likely.

Hacker Des Places bg Paul Nicholls j3-1-2 (132) 117 108
Great Pretender (Le Havre){7}(0.45) 2/0 Wild Queen 1st Prix Triquerville (L 4yo Chs), Auteuil 2006

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hacker-des-places

Paul Nicholls has won the Wensleydale three times from five attempts since 2008/09, and those have been the only instances of him sending a juvenile hurdler to Wetherby during that time period. While Mr Glass, who runs in the concluding bumper, will likely appreciate the company, Hacker des Places has his own business to attend in Yorkshire. Third behind Paros and Jeu de Paume on his debut at Dieppe in May, Hacker des Places won at the second time of asking at Dax the following month. While Jeu de Paume is firmly established as one of the better juveniles in France, Paros was disappointing on his UK debut at Sandown. Though the runner-up at Dax was a dual winner in minor company, the form of that race has not worked out particularly well. Hacker des Places had also been green on his first two starts in France, and his jumping, while occasionally swift, included several large leaps. He did not settle on his hurdling debut at Wincanton in October and his round was devoid of the swift jumping he had exercised in France prior to his being readily outpaced by his stablemate. Nevertheless, he was still upwards of seventeen lengths ahead of the remainder who have subsequently shown improved form. Though the yard's imported hurdlers have a very good 32.89% strike rate first time, their second time rate is even higher at 36.67% and of the five imported French Hurdlers who were beaten at odds-on first time, three subsequently won including Qualando and Saphir du Rheu. With the experience under his girth and the benefit of a break extended by a pair of withdrawals, Hacker des Places should be able to leave his Wincanton performance behind and will appreciate the return to testing ground.

Kings Creek bg Iain Jardine f5-0-0 (62) 65 j4-1-1 (117) 113 115
Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 2/1 Point Of Origin 1st Handicap Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
Kings Creek had shown fair if unremarkable form in two runs for Alan King in the summer and after a ?12,500 transfer to Iain Jardine, ran to a similar level at Sedgefield in late September. His performances had been marked by an understated professionalism and while he was fresh early on his first run for seventy-seven days at Catterick twelve days ago, he jumped reasonably well once again. Always tracking the leaders, he moved into the lead turning into the straight and galloped on relentlessly under a hands and heels ride to win by five and a half lengths. The break clearly did him a world of good and he posted a new career best. The going was officially soft but the dry weather throughout the day likely made conditions less testing than anticipated and Kings Creek probably won't want much more give in the ground. Furthermore, third placed En Couleur re-opposes with a seven pound pull and while Kings Creek is an honest performer, this is a more difficult task.

Caldwell bc Michael Scudamore f3-0-2 (-) 73
Dansili (Barathea){13-c}(1.67) 1/1 Quebec 1st Novices' Hurdle, Market Rasen 2015
Beginning his career in late August, Caldwell finished third on his first two outings in maidens at Bellewstown and Fairyhouse before finishing midfield at the Curragh on his final start for Dermot Weld. His head carriage has been quite appalling but there is little to qubble about regarding his form as he split subsequent hurdles winners Druid's Altar and Autumn Evening on his debut and finished ahead of Fairyhouse winner Peckham Springs on his second start. Furthermore, with those races coming over ten and twelve furlongs through soft and heavy ground, he should have no trouble handling tomorrow's conditions. Dermot Weld supplies a fair number of winning juveniles but his improvement and strike rates are below average and the very same can be said of Michael Scudamore as a trainer. Caldwell made the switch between the yards for the sum of 28,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and on breeding at least, he has every reason to do just as well in his new vocation. Dansili rarely gets high class juveniles but his winners to runners rate of 36.11% is very healthy and Caldwell is a full brother to a pair of winning hurdlers in Carntop and Quebec. All three of the yard's juveniles to visit Wetherby have been placed including Dinsdale who was runner-up in this contest in 2016. Caldwell has an appealing profile and a good showing would not come as a surprise, although enthusiasm is tempered by his being an entire with a conspicuous head carriage.

Danger Money chg Donald McCain f7-1-0 (92) 92
Nayef (Generous){16-b}(1.18) 0.5 Doyly Carte 2nd Doncaster Mares' Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2014
Andrew Oliver has been the source of numerous talented juveniles over the years including Dodging Bullets, Mega Fortune and Lettre De Cachet. Danger Money fetched 42,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and his rating of 92 is the highest brought to the division in Britain this season. Making his racecourse debut in late June, he broke his duck at the third time of asking at Tipperary, hanging on ahead of useful novice hurdler Dewcup. Since then, Danger Money has been participating in valuable contests and was not disgraced in either the Vinnie Roe Stakes or Yeats Stakes. Following a six week break, he finished down the field in the Irish Cesarewitch and was well beaten in first time cheekpieces when last seen at Leopardstown. A half-brother to Doyly Carte, he is closely related to the decent hurdler Melodic Rendezvous (2/2) while Model Man (4/2) and Rasko (4/3) also appear on the damline. Sire Nayef does get winners in the sphere, but his overall record is a little below average. Donald McCain is one of the stronger trainers in the division and his first time out strike rate with flat recruits is a very respectable 17.1%. However, only one of his last twenty juveniles at Wetherby have been winners and while there are more ticks than crosses in the overall profile, there is a suspicion that Danger Money may have gone sour recently.

El Jefe bg Brian Ellison f7-0-2 (53) 57
Born To Sea (Montjeu){22-a}(0.63) 2/1 Mountain 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2007
Since 2008/09, four of Brian Ellison's twenty-one juvenile hurdlers at Wetherby have been winners including Seamour who took this contest in 2014. The master of Spring Cottage Stables saddles two runners here, the first being flat maiden El Jefe. Rated 53 after seven runs on the level, he was twice able to reach the frame including when last seen when runner-up in a soft ground, ten-furlong Redcar handicap in early October. His first run since wind surgery, he made good headway to run into second during the straight but looked very suspect when asked to go after the leader. The first and second each won next time, but El Jefe would still be the lowest rated horse in this line up. Born To Sea has done well in the division thus far with a 26.09% winners to runners rate, and he is out of a full-sister to winning juvenile hurdler Mountain. However, El Jefe still has moderate form and a questionable attitude to overcome.

En Couleur bg Michael Easterby f3-0-1 (60) 68 j2-0-1 (108) 104 108
Archipenko (With Approval){16}(0.90) 2/1 Circus Maximus 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Naas 2001
En Couleur showed some promise on his flat debut back in March but achieved little in two subsequent outings in October and started at 125/1 ahead of his hurdles debut at Wetherby. Nevertheless he outran those odds to finish just over eleven lengths fourth to First Impression and jumped well apart from getting close to the sixth. Starting at a twenty-fifth of the price at Catterick and making headway early on from a rear position, he also jumped well apart from getting close to the sixth and led the pursuit of the winner up the straight. A slightly untidy jump at the last compromised his chances of finishing second but he was still a good seven lengths clear of the remainder. Michael Easterby has three wins from sixteen at the venue including Albert's Back who won this race in 2017. An unexposed horse who should get the trip in these conditions, he comes into this contest with reasonable prospects.

Fahad bg Danny Brooke f5-0-1 (72) 78 j2-0-0 (-) 84 90
Farhh (Nayef){1-k}(2.50) 3/3 Lisheen Castle 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Wetherby 2019
Initially rated 77 on the flat for Roger Varian, Fahad had begun to show signs of decline before switching to his new yard for 14,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale. His stable/hurdles debut came Catterick in late November where he jumped poorly in the rear before passing beaten horses in the straight to finish a twenty-three length fifth. Returning to the same venue a month later, he jumped moderately better in the rear but would not make any such progress and was be beaten twice the margin.

Flight Command brg Samuel Drinkwater f5-1-0 61 (67)
War Command (Pivotal){9-c}(2.14) 3/1 Sir Pitt 5th Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2011
Set to be Samuel Drinkwater's first juvenile hurdler after 231 National Hunt runners, Flight Command won his final start in Ireland for Michael O'Callaghan before changing hands at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale for 5,000 guineas. This victory came in a mile handicap at Gowran Park off 53 with the fifth and ninth winning next time out. Four of his former trainer's eight ex-inmates have been winners in the division including Veneer Of Charm, Act Of Valour and Alexei Vronsky, although these were all rated higher than Flight Command. War Command has had one winning juvenile from eight and the granddam is a sibling of Triumph fifth Sir Pitt and the useful jumper Farringdon. Flight Command would not be the worst recruit to the division, but may find greater success in more moderate company.

Herbiers bg Oliver Greenall b3-1-0 66
Waldpark (Saddanian){u}(1.00) 1/0 Quanlanke 5th Prix Andre Michel (G3), Auteuil 2008

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/herbiers

After finishing fourth on his debut in a bumper at Vichy in May, Herbiers made amends by winning next time at Moulins the following month. There he made much of the running and though he was headed turning for home, he battled on bravely to score by short neck on the line. The runner-up followed up in a course and distance contest in September before winning on his hurdles debut at Auteuil by seventeen lengths where he had Paul Nicholls' Finale Hurdle entry Houx Gris back in third. The pair finished over five lengths clear of a subsequent winner and Herbiers passed the Arqana ring unsold despite attracting a bid of €100,000. However, whatever he eventually cost must have looked very expensive at Huntingdon back in November as was beaten by sixty lengths in a junior bumper. Incidentally, Mathieu Brasme's other import into the division was the €105,000 Sainte Doctor who was unplaced in four outings last season for Neil Mulholland and JP McManus. Sire Waldpark, the 2011 German Derby winner, has yet to have any juveniles winners either side of the channel from his first two crops, but there are numerous winning jumpers on the damline. Oliver Greenall gets his fair share of winners in the division and Gold Desert has done well for him this season. Furthermore, he has been in good form recently and enjoyed a winner on the first day of this meeting. However, his juveniles typically improve for the run and while Herbiers could still be anything, he does have to account for his Huntingdon showing.

Sir Charles Punch bg Tim Easterby f12-0-2 (68) 79 j2-0-0 (-) 98 105
Sir Percy (Archipenko){1-k}(0.33) 3/1 Cava Bien 126 2nd Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (104), Newbury 2006
Sir Charles Punch had a deteriorating flat mark but this was less due to a loss of ability and more about his capacity to fulfil same as he had a habit of working himself up. He settled better on his hurdles debut in a solid looking race at Newcastle but he was impeded by hesitant jumping which once again prompted his demise at Catterick last time out. Reticence cost him ground at several hurdles and he was unable to make inroads in the straight. While he has not been completely disgraced thus far over hurdles, and his trainer has had two places from five in this contest, he needs to be more assured over his hurdles if is to be competitive.

Spantik bg Roger Fell f15-2-1 (64) 76
Canford Cliffs (Galileo){4-f}(0.74) 3/1 Wily Fox 1st Handicap Hurdle (115), Warwick 2014
Spantik is a dual winner on the flat, including on his penultimate outing at Newcastle in early November where he took a ten furlong handicap off a deflated mark of 61. Canford Cliffs gets his fair share of winners in the division and his progeny have an improvement rate of 60% between codes while the third dam produced a pair of fair hurdlers. Roger Fell rarely runs horses over hurdles and while Spantik has reasonable form, his tendency to pull despite his experience would be a concern.

Strong prospects
1. Hacker Des Places
Reasonable prospects
2. Caldwell
3. En Couleur
4. Kings Creek
Feasible prospects
5. Herbiers
6. Danger Money
Moderate prospects
7. Sir Charles Punch
8. Flight Command
9. El Jefe
10. Spantik
Negligible prospects
11. Fahad

Going with Flying scotsman at leopardstown tomorrow , Becoming a bit of a cliff horse for me ,
having backed for the Triumph hdl , and now the Boodles , keeping the faith for the time being.

Apparently, it's persisting it down which I can't see helping Flying Scotsman. That said, while I can't have him for the Triumph personally, this might turn out quite handy for the Fred Winter. Still, I won't be playing in this or any other race so I hope he's able to come in for you

[Kotkijet]

Almost, but not quite, in for the morning... the preview for yesterday's race at Leopardstown.

Preview review
The strong prospect finished first and his chances were a standalone ahead of the next four amongst whom were unexposed types with credible profiles. The newcomers were afforded plenty of respect but given that it was a falsely run affair, the finishing order was a bit of a mess.

Race review
A quality field was assembled for this contest which was very much in keeping with previous renewals. However, the pace was a very pedestrian one with the winning time upwards of nine seconds slower than the other three races held over the same distance on the card. Despite going very slowly in the opening stages, they were all settled well with only Druid's Altar taking a bit of a hold. Although all of the runners with experience are capable jumpers, the pace did not lend itself to any taking performances in this regard. Furthermore, the field crossed the line in a heap which most likely compromised the finishing order - especially in the case of Saint Sam. Overall, it was a rather unsatisfactory although Zanahiyr excelled despite unfavourable circumstances and the front four look distinctly superior to the remainder.

Zanahiyr quickly established a reputation of a serious racehorse in his first two wins at Ballinrobe and Fairyhouse, and further enhanced his credentials here. He jumped as well as he could in the slow pace and his only errors, going quite big over the third and fifth, can not be held against him as they did not hinder his performance and would not be prevalent in a truly run affair. Tracking the leaders throughout, he briefly looked like getting outpaced turning for home. But after a clean jump at the last, needed only to be shaken up briefly to quickly establish a clear lead of over three lengths and ran out a most comfortable winner. He emerges from the contest with an enhanced reputation as although the bare form is not extraordinary, he added a turn of foot to his already considerable arsenal. Zanahiyr will need a properly run race against top class horses before his true abilities can be established, but at this juncture, he looks a class apart and will bring real intrigue wherever he next appears. 141

Busselton won his sole start in France in a Prix Wild Monarch which is beginning to look like a reasonable edition. His jumping was not fantastic on his debut, particularly in the early stages, but he began to get the hang of things as the race progressed and ran out a clear winner. His round was the cleanest on show in this contest and another who raced prominently, he moved into the lead on the turn for home. He briefly repelled Zanahiyr while under a drive, but while he was readily left behind when his superior opponent moved up a gear, he still had the best part of two lengths in hand over the remainder. While he looks unlikely to turn the tables on the winner, Busselton made a most pleasing Irish debut after a seven month break and should be able to hold his own in the better races over the upcoming months. 131

Ha d'Or was the only hurdling debutant in the contest with his sole previous start coming by way of a six length win in an AQPS bumper at the beginning of July. He was not helped by facing his first public hurdles in a steady manner and he got slightly close to a few early flights. Nevertheless, there was nothing that would provoke trepidation and his hurdling was much more fluent once the pace increased. Held up in the rear, he was still in last position turning into the straight but no more than a few lengths behind the leaders. He jumped into third at the last maintained that position to the line. There is more to be learned of him but this was a solid debut nevertheless and should find plenty of improvement for the experience. 129

Saint Sam was a dual winner over hurdles in France and performed creditably behind Zanahiyr on his Irish debut at Fairyhouse. His jumping decent without being quite as good as last time with his getting close to a few hurdles. He will likely jump better when going a more solid tempo and although he flattened the penultimate flight, he merely flicked it with his lead hoof and did not lose any momentum. Another who raced in the rear, he was unlucky not to finish closer as he found himself boxed in entering the straight, was forced to be pulled out and wide, and ended up jumping the final flight in last position. Being more a staying type, it took him a while to regain his momentum before claiming fourth place in the final strides. Though this confirms Saint Sam's overall ability, it perhaps exposes a palpable need for a sterner test which may not be forthcoming during his initial campaign. 129

Autumn Evening came into the contest undefeated over hurdles and emerged from his Cork success carrying any amount of potential. There was a certain rift in class that needed to be bridged, and this was reflected in the market along with the contest itself. His hurdling at Cork was decent save for minor errors and his only real mistake came at the final flight. It was the same case here as he was slightly untidy at the first, got in close to the second, skewed over the fourth and, saving his worst until the end, flattened the last which cost him several strides worth of momentum. This is a habit which needs to be ironed out, and it is apparent that he is perhaps a notch below top-class. Nevertheless, Autumn Evening would still be an above average sort and along with holding place prospects in the lesser pattern races, should be up to taking a winners' contest and may also end up with a workable handicap mark. 128

Druid's Altar was a commanding winner on his hurdles debut in a gruelling contest at Punchestown, but went off too quickly for his own good next time at Fairyhouse. He led once again but did so under a very tight hold which saw him take a hold, albeit one that was mild in nature. He steadied slightly going into the third and fifth but jumped fine otherwise and though headed and dropped from the turn into the straight, he was more outpaced than tired. From a form perspective, this was a slight improvement on his Punchestown effort, but he is becoming rather exposed and until he perhaps goes over a longer trip, will struggle to be competitive in anything but ordinary company. 127

Jeff Kidder was the outsider of the field having twice met defeat in quite ordinary company before winning a standard maiden at Fairyhouse early last month. He is a reasonable jumper of his hurdles and apart from getting tight into the fifth, put in another fair round. Keeping a midfield position, he was always close enough if good enough. However, he began to fade in the straight and while he was baulked at the last, it made no difference to the outcome. Jeff Kidder is a likeable type and by dint of his proximity to good horses, posted a career best here. However, "above average" would appear to be his ceiling. 125

[Kotkijet]

There is a fillies' juvenile at Doncaster on Friday so that will be sorted before the reviews of today's races (which I am quite looking forward to doing). In the meantime, the following completes the Boxing Day action.

Preview review
Sometimes in life, a 100/1 Kyllachy filly, representing a trainer whose only previous juvenile was well beaten at Down Royal in November 2011, will win a sixteen runner maiden on Boxing Day. Given that horses are not supernatural entities and the races in which they compete exist within a tangible reality, it is possible for everything to be explained... in a fashion. Taking the most positive view of her profile, her official rating was the sixth highest in the field, the trainer had a 40/1 winner at the beginning of the month and damsire Muhtathir (who was missed in the preview) has a very good record in the discipline and Awkwafina has now made it four winning juvenile hurdlers from eight. These reasons alone would not give a horse strong prospects in a race of this nature, but the horse had apparently worked and schooled well and in the delicate ecosystem that is horse racing form, factors such as those can make a telling impact. Call Me Rocky exceed the expectations of the market along with his trainer who had the horse as his second string. Palm Beach went as low as 1.06 in-running so there would be no reason to be critical of his assessment, and the rest of the leading group, who were over thirty lengths clear of the remainder, all had reasonable prospects.

Race review
The most distinct feature of this race is that it went to a long priced outsider. However, if her prominence is completely ignored then even though the front five will have finished in a heap, they all had a right to be there and were a long way clear of a large field. While ran at a reasonable gallop, the winning time was considerably slower than most previous runnings. Although this was the case for every other race on the card and with the following day's meeting abandoned, it is fair to suggest that the ground was very testing. Given the number of runners, the standard of jumping was compromised by some crowding, particularly in the early stages. Nevertheless, there were no real hard luck stories and while the winner's position does come as a surprise, the form would look very feasible in her absence so her performance should not be readily discredited.

Awkwafina failed win in six starts on the flat, her new trainer was nought from one in the division, and Kyllachy's record sixty-three runs without a win is unparalleled. In terms of positives, she was the seventh highest rated horse in the line-up, her trainer had a 40/1 winner earlier in the month and damsire had a fine winners to runners rate of 42.86% going into the race. It was also reported afterwards than Awkwafina had schooled and worked well and apart from skewing at the second, she put in a clean round on her hurdling debut. Setting off in the rear, she moved towards the midfield on entering the back stretch and made steady headway to turn for home among the leading group. She briefly led approaching the penultimate flight where she was outjumped, but regained the lead going over the last and was able to repel the challenge to win by a neck on the line. She clearly has the aptitude for the game and this performance happens to be the joint highest rated achieved by an Irish filly this season. Being that the next five all had solid chances and were a long way clear of the remainder, it would be unfair to dismiss this as a fluke and although it remains to be seen if she can repeat this showing, she may be a fair recruit to the division. 113

Palm Beach won a reasonable maiden on the second of his flat starts and followed up with a good second to Crassus at this venue at the start of the month. His jumping was fairly novicey on that occasion but was better here apart from getting close to three out, and being slightly tired over the last. Tracking the leaders throughout, he appeared to make the winning move when jumping to the front at the penultimate flight. However, he was outjumped at the last and was never able to regain the initiative. This is the second time he has been outbattled in as many races, but does not appear to be one who shirks the duels. Crassus was a more experienced rival and the going, while heavy at the start of the month, was even more testing here and that ultimately made the difference. Palm Beach has the class and aptitude to win one of these things, and with very few miles on the clock, he may still be able to progress beyond this level. 120

Call Me Rocky was the stable's second string behind Zoffanien on jockey bookings, and drifted from 25/1 to 40/1 in the market. His flat form, including a maiden win at Limerick and a second in a heavy ground handicap off 78 on his penultimate start, entitled him to a fair chance on his hurdling debut. However, it got off to a perilous start when he was badly baulked at the first hurdle. Nevertheless, he was able to settle into a rhythm and apart from getting close to the third, put in a solid round of jumping. Tucking behind the pursuers, he was always close enough to launch a challenge but was never able to land a telling blow and finished a length and a half behind the front pair. This was a respectable introduction and the standard of this performance is already in keeping with his flat form so he should continue to be competitive. 118

Complete Fantasy already had the experience of five jumps races to his name and after taking a couple of runs to get the hang of things, has become an honest and consistent performer. One element to his consistency is that while he largely jumps well, he is prone to making the odd error. Despite being ridden into the flight, he was big and slow over the second, got in close to the fifth and steadied into the penultimate flight before tripping over it. Racing just behind the leaders, he was another who was close enough in the concluding stages, yet unable to find that extra gear. Complete Fantasy thoroughly deserves to win a race of his own, but he is typically liable to find one or two a little stronger than himself. 118

Star Of Cashel is a rare juvenile hurdler for Fozzy Stack, but he was the highest rated flat horse coming into the race and had shown himself game in nature. He was a drifter in the market beforehand and he completely lacked fluency on his introduction to the sphere, After making a blunder at the first, he was big and slow over the second, steady and close at the third and especially the fourth, and was close again at the next two before stumbling over the last. It is a appreciable amount of class which allowed Star Of Cashel to finish as close as he did and should he become more fluent, then he might be quite useful. Particularly on a sharper circuit. 115

Zoffanien was a fairly useful dual winner on the flat in France and made a pleasing start to his hurdling career at this venue behind Crassus and Palm Beach. However, his jumping was nowhere near as tidy on his return as after being badly baulked at the first, was hesitant and untidy at the second and while he was better over the next few, his round concluded with a series of untidy jumps. These errors were not serious and it is unlikely his confidence will be too aversely affected in the long run. Zoffanien was unable to match his debut performance but he was still a long way clear of the remainder and he should be able to bounce back from this showing. 114

Willywampus jumped decently on his hurdling debut at this venue and had yet to be asked a question when falling at the fifth at Fairyhouse a fortnight ago. Settling in the rear, he took off a fair way from the first but got over it alright and while he tripped over the fifth, it did not cost him any momentum. He attempted to join the leading group but tripped again over the third last and was never going forward from there apart from passing a beaten horse on the run-in. He has not yet approached his flat form in three outings now and will need a soft mark if he is to be competitive any time soon. 83

Master Rocco finished last in a claimer on his final start for Jane Chapple-Hyam and was completely unfancied her. Taking a keen hold early, he pulled himself to the front which is where he remained until the third last wherever he faded tamely. His jumping was poor over the first two flights but he settled into a rhythm and hurdled cleanly for the most part. Though he was beaten a long way, he was the best placed of the front runners and if he learns to settle better then he may be able to do himself justice in lesser company. 80

Army Of One made her stable/hurdles debut in the Listed race at Aintree early this month, but finished ninety lengths behind the winner and would have been beaten further had they jumped more than five hurdles. Unfancied beforehand, she was always closer to last than first and made errors, some of them quite bad, at each and every hurdle. 44

Stage Power beat only one home on his first two hurdles runs at Punchestown and Cork. Nonetheless, while he was beaten by eighty-five lengths here, was able to double his list of conquests despite jumping slowly and steadily on numerous occasions. 36

Townes ran with a modicum of promise on his hurdling bow at Cork and racing prominently early on, jumped the first three flights quite well. However, he began tripping over his hurdles from the fourth onwards and lost his position even quicker than Master Rocco. 13

Thekeyisnottopanic had not run over hurdles for nearly three months and after steadying at the second, got in very close to the third. Settled in midfield, he was still just about in contention with half a mile to go but soon lost touch and ultimately finished tired and tailed off. 1

Self Assessed was the first to go into the lead, but his jumping did not merit such a position and he was the first of the leaders to be beaten before pulling up two out. Self Assessed has ran no kind of race since leaving Jim Bolger and would make no appear in the near future. 0

The Copper Kid was beaten twenty-two lengths on his racecourse debut at Dundalk earlier in the month, and touched 400/1 in the ring to make a successful start to his hurdles career. However, he lacked fluency and never left the rear of the field before pulling up before two out. 0

Tintean Fein is feasibly bred for the game and has a fair amount of size about him. However, he jumped way too big on his racecourse debut, was already getting reminders passing the stands and was the first horse to be pulled up. 0

Dashing Diamond does not have the most appealing pedigree for the game but was well backed ahead of her hurdling debut at Tipperary back in October. In the event, she fell at the first and was then off the track for fifty-two days. Her return came in a twelve furlong handicap at Dundalk where she was only a neck away from defying odds of 33/1. She once again attracted support in the market, going from 18/1 in the ring to starting at 15/2. However, she almost went again at the first as she got in very close, and was hampered at the second. Her jumping was decent for a while and she managed to reach the leading group turning for home. However, that would be the sum of her achievements and after landing awkwardly after the last, was quickly pulled up and dismounted. Fortunately, she is none the worse for the excursions and while she would have been comfortably beaten, there was still some promise on this showing. 93

High Moor Flyer 27/12/2020 Wetherby 2m3?f Novices' Handicap Hurdle (110)
A daughter of A Media Luz, High Moor Flyer far surpassed anything she achieved on the flat when second on her hurdling debut at Leicester and though utterly outclassed in a Listed race at Aintree, she still finished fourth of eleven. Stepping up half a mile on her handicap debut, she had reasonable chances of getting the trip. However, her rating of 110 does not look kind and her habit of taking a keen hold further compromised her chances. Tracking the leader, she took her first three hurdles well enough, but blundered at the fourth and was close again to the next two. She was getting reminders early in the back straight and quickly lost her position on the turn for home before pulling up shortly after. Unless she learns to settle, she will continue to struggle to run to her inflated mark. 0

I'm Easy 27/12/2020 Wetherby 2m3?f Novices' Handicap Hurdle (98)
Despite being beaten by over thirty lengths on his first two hurdles outing, his handicap mark of 85 is not unduly harsh. However, he was almost a stone wrong at the weights here and although his jumping was reasonable for the first part of the race, it began to deteriorate as he tired along the back. He made some headway before turning in, but it was a short lived effort and he was completely tailed off when hampered and unseating two from home. 0

Naizagai 27/12/2020 Wetherby 2m Handicap Hurdle (115)
Naizagai ran with credit when second on his handicap debut at Sandown earlier in the month and is not harshly treated on his current mark. Held up in the rear, he jumped neatly and settled nicely before moving through the field on the turn for home and joining the leader at the top of the straight. He made his first error of the race when getting in too close at three out and made an even worse error at the next. Nevertheless, he was cleaner at the last which he jumped upsides the leader and despite being hassled by the larger third placed horse on the run-in, plugged on gamely and went down by just three-quarters of a length on the line. The front three were all well fancied and finished upwards of eight lengths clear of the remainder. Running in a first time hood, this is as good a performance posted by Naizagai since winning on his hurdling debut at Cartmel under very different tactics and in very different conditions. Having now proven himself on softer ground, Naizagai can continue his progress and with luck, will not be unduly treated by the handicapper. 119

[Kotkijet]

Sprinter Sacre made his chasing debut at Doncaster on the 9th of December 2011, and the previous race was the first Filles' Juvenile Hurdle to be held north of Fakenham. That contest, won by Dubawi Dancer, amounted to little form wise. Moved to the 29th of December, it has been much the same ever since although the 2019 introduction of the venue's Listed Fillies' race hosted the following month has seen the last two winners collect black type. Tomorrow's renewal looks customarily average, but there are a couple of runners with pretentions of being capable hurdlers. All but two of the nine runners will be making their hurdles debuts and newcomers have a strike rate in the race of 10.71% which is similar to those with experience at 11.76%. The clear round rate of 96.53% is fair and odds-on juveniles at the course win 76.19% of their races which is one of the highest rates in the country. However, Doncaster can be a tricky course for newcomers where the clear round rate drops to 93.33%. Though a flat, galloping track, Doncaster is not an especially taxing racecourse and its winning DIs of 1.20 mean and 1.40 median are on the higher side of standard as well as being close to that of the average runner. While the going is currently soft, Doncaster is a well-draining course and there is little rain forecast ahead of the race.

Breadcrumbs bbf Jennie Candlish b2-0-0 72
Dabirsim (Dr Fong){22-a}(1.67) 1/0 Sister Agnes 1st Novices' Handicap Hurdle (83), Stratford 2008
One of three ex-bumper horses in the line-up, Breadcrumbs twice finished around twenty lengths behind the winner in a pair of races in the Autumn. Three of the first four at Huntingdon finished runner-up next time, although Breadcrumbs was some thirteen lengths behind those. The form of his Market Rasen race has not worked out any better and Breadcrumbs was nearly seven lengths behind Hunter's Dawn. No juvenile by Dabirsim or supplied by Ivan Furtado has won a race in the division, and Jennie Candlish's record is fair at best. The dam was able to win a moderate handicap hurdle, and Christmas Hurdle winner Silver Streak appears at 3/3. However, the overall profile is patchy and bumper horses of Breadcrumbs' ability have a poor record first time.

Call Me Sainte bf Nigel Hawke b1-0-0 36
Saint Des Saints (Pistolet Bleu){1-l}(0.71) 1/1 Saint Call 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Auteuil 2014
By Saint Des Saints and a full brother to the useful Saint Call, Call Me Sainte's dam won a 4yo hurdle, his granddam won the Prix Wild Monarch in 1989, and Robin Des Pres and Robin Des Champs appear at 3/2 on the damline. Nigel Hawke has saddled three winners in the sphere this season, but has yet to win with ex-bumper horses which is how Call Me Sainte made an inauspicious racecourse debut at Exeter over two months ago. She was not unfancied but weakened tamely and along with a subsequent wind operation, she also makes her hurdles debut in a first time hood. Though bred to be a useful tool in the sphere, she comes into the race with many questions to answer.

Flippance bg Alan King 6-0-0 (42) 42
Toronado (Fantastic Light){6-e}(1.00) 0.5 Secular Society 2nd Gran Corsa Siepi di Grosseto Hurdle, Grosseto 2016
Alan King has had two winners and a third from his three runners in this race, but one ran over hurdles in France and the other pair were two stone superior to Flippance on the flat. Finishing in rear on all six outings since her debut in July, Flippance had her wind done before twice being beaten in Chelmsford handicaps off 50 and 48. Though a half-sister to a fair hurdler in Italy from the family of My Immortal and Great Pretender (both 3/2), Toronado has yet to have a winner from fifteen starts in the division. Difficult though it may be to rule out an Alan King trained juvenile, the lowest rated flat recruit he has been able to win with had a mark of 58.

Gilbertina bf Nick Kent f2-0-0 (-) 15 j1-0-0 (-) 90 94
Universal (Teofilo){11-g}(0.82) 0.5 Big Ego 2nd 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Gowran Park 2018
One of two runners with hurdling experience, Gilbertina's previous outing came when an eighteen length third in a filles' race at Leicester. Her starting price of 200/1 was an honest reflection of her flat form and there was no indication in her pedigree than improvement was imminent. Nevertheless, while she lacked fluency in the early stages, she jumped decently enough and though the front pair left her trailing, she maintained her position relative to the remainder of the field. The form has a fairly mixed look about it as while Megan ran well at Aintree and fifth placed Volkovka (who made a bad blunder at the last) won at Market Rasen, the pair that Gilbertina split have each been most disappointing. Trainer Nick Kent has had a couple of winners since Christmas and though Gilbertina needs to prove her Leicester effort was no fluke, she is still unexposed and can not be readily dismissed.

Hunter's Dawn chf Amy Murphy f1-0-0 (-) 36 b3-0-0 82
Hunter's Light (Manduro){11-a}(0.71) 2/1 Moonlight Sapphire 2nd 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Gowran Park 2009
The third ex-bumper horse in the field, Hunter's Dawn showed the best form in that sphere with a twelve length sixth on her debut at Market Rasen, and a near nine length fourth next time at Warwick. Neither of those races have been substantiated and her last two outings have been troubling. After running out when turning into the straight at this venue last month, she finished tailed off on the proper flat at Southwell eighteen days ago. Amy Murphy has done reasonably well in the division this term and though Hunter's Light has yet to produce a winner, Manduro is a useful damsire, the dam is a half-sister to a couple of fair sorts and top National Hunt stallion Old Vic appears at 3/1 on the damline. Nevertheless, the best of Hunter's Dawn leaves her with enough to find without justifying her latest two performances.

Kimberley bf Oliver Greenall f6-0-1 (68) 74
Oasis Dream (High Chaparral){8-d}(1.00) 0.5 Moon Of Baroda 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2019
In a combined 157 starts, Oasis Dream has never produced, not has Oliver Greenall saddle, a juvenile hurdler that has fallen, unseated or refused. However, while the former has a solid record in the sphere, the same can not be said of the sire who has a strike rate of 2.9%, and an improvement rate of just 6.67%. Following a modest start to her racing career at Chelmsford in June, Kimberley ran creditably without winning on three outings during the summer, including a second at Windsor where she finished upwards of seven lengths clear ahead of the remainder. Following a 10,500 guineas transaction at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, she left a James Fanshawe yard with a fair record of supplying juvenile hurdlers to the sphere including the useful Trenchant. However, while she is a half-sister to the placed hurdler Moon Of Baroda, and not too distantly related to the top class Diakali at 3/2, her sirelines are less than enticing. Furthermore, her best form has been on good to firm and she disappointed on her final two starts on the flat.

Licit bf Mohamed Moubarak f12-1-4 (68) 75
Poet's Voice (Oasis Dream){22-b}(1.10) 2/1 Bivouac 1st Novices' Selling Hurdle, Kelso 2009
Kentucky Hardboot has been an unexpectedly useful recruit to the division for Mohamed Moubarak, and in Licit he introduces another juvenile with a less than exemplary profile. A five and a half length winner of a soft ground handicap at Haydock in September, Licit has ran respectably on four of her five subsequent outings. Poet's Voice has a fair record as a sire in the division although his progeny have a clear round rate of 93.1% which is the lowest in the field. The dam is a half-sister to the lesser but still fair namesake of Bivouac, and the niece of a winning maiden hurdler, but Oasis Dream's record as a damsire is no better than as a sire. Bryony Frost is an interesting booking, but Licit's profile is still a patchy one.

Progressive bf Nicky Henderson f4-1-0 (77) 83
Nathaniel (Lomitas){20-c}(0.63) 3/2 Ellazaria 3rd Prix Bournosienne (G3), Auteuil 2006
Nicky Henderson is not averse to running juveniles at Doncaster, and outside of the Summit Hurdle, half of his six runners since 2009 have been winners. Former inmates of Roger Varian's win more than their fair share of races, although they are generally not high-class sorts and most fail to improve for the switch between codes. Following a 55,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls in the Autumn, Progressive will be the first juvenile to bridge the two yards. Her career began with a four length sixth in a Newbury contest won by the dual listed placed Cosmic Princess, where the second, third and fourth were each subsequent winners. She was off the mark at the second attempt with a game success in a ten furlong novice stakes at Newcastle, although the race has produced no subsequent winners/ Progressive was not disgraced off a mark of 78 on her final two flat outings in fillies' handicaps at Yarmouth and Kempton, but again, neither of these races have produced winners. Nathaniel is establishing himself as a fine sire of juvenile hurdlers with above average figures across the board. His first time strike rate is also a very respectable 18.18%, although early indications show that his progeny jump and perform better after a run. Lomitas is a more than capable damsire and although there are no immediate jumpers on the damline, fair sorts do appear from the third dam onwards. With strong, if shaky, flat form, a respectable pedigree and top connections, Progressive is entitled to plenty of respect first time out.

Ronde De Nuit bf Philip Hobbs f1-0-0 FrF ? j1-0-1 (-) 95 96
Doctor Dino (April Night){8-c}(1.67) 0.5 Nuit De France 1st 4yo Chase, Tolouse 2018
The juvenile hurdle at Exeter in November was won by Monmiral, who since ran away with the Summit Hurdle, and the runner-up Honneur d'Ajonc was in the process of running a big race when falling at Kempton. In fifth that day was Ronde de Nuit. having her first run since she was fourth at Angers on her sole flat outing in June.
The form she showed in France was promising without being much better than reasonable, but as she was more inclined to weave away from the whip than run true to the line, she did well to finish as close as she did. By Doctor Dino and out of a winning four year old, her pedigree suggests she can do well in the sphere. While she was fresh in the early stages at Exeter, her jumping was reasonable and after running off the pace, was still in contention turning for home. Her freshness and lack of fitness saw her empty out quite quickly and being hampered at three out, albeit only slightly, effectively ended her race. She was not given a hard time on the run in and allowed to come home without urgency. In keeping with her trainer's record, there was enough to suggest that she can find plenty of improvement for stripping fitter.

Strong prospects
1. Ronde De Nuit
Reasonable prospects
2. Progressive
Feasible prospects
3. Gilbertina
4. Licit
5. Kimberley
Moderate prospects
6. Hunter's Dawn
7. Call Me Sainte
Negligible prospects
8. Flippance
9. Breadcrumbs

[Kotkijet]

Good Ball 29/12/2020 2m?f Introductory Hurdle
Good Ball bg Paul Nicholls f1-0-0 (-) j1-0-1 (-) 120
Doctor Dino (Barathea){6-e}(0.68) 2/1 Great Pretender 1st Prix Achille-Foild (Listed), Auteuil 2004

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/good-ball

Tomorrow's introductory hurdle at Newbury was only opened to three-year-olds last season and the sole juvenile representative, Dan Skelton's Catterick winner Scorched Earth, finished down the field. This year, Paul Nicholls fields Good Ball to fly the flag for the youngsters, who comes into the contest having finished second on his sole hurdles outing in the first division of Auteuil's Prix Emilius in mid-October. Although fairly late in the season for juvenile imports, the newcomers' contest has featured several who would join British and Irish yards including 2011 winner Balder Succes, 2012 winner Rolling Star, and last season's runner-up Solo. Good Ball went into the race having finished down the field at Clairefontaine in August, and started at odds of 15/1. Racing prominently throughout, he got over the second unscathed after being hampered in mid-air and apart from a couple of big jumps, put in a good round of jumping. He was headed on the approach to two out by Teahupoo (now with Gordon Elliott), but did little wrong in defeat and went down by just over a length. The pair were three lengths clear of Haut Les Coeurs who was a twelve length winner at Auteuil on his next outing. Though Good Ball will be Erwan Grall's first expat to run in the division, previous owners M. L. Bloodstock have supplied the Nicholls yard with plenty of good horses including Saphir Du Rheu, Irish Saint and Marracudja. Doctor Dino has produced Sceau Royal and Dino Mite to win in Britain and his winners to runners rate with three-year-olds in France is a very commendable 44.68%. Good Ball is a half-brother to two winners and is out of a half-sister to Great Pretender who won over hurdles before becoming a successful jumps stallion. Insofar as his prospects tomorrow are concerned, the soft ground should not be a problem and Paul Nicholls has a 33% strike rate when running juveniles against older horses. While not in a position to assess the credibility of the opposition, Good Ball looks like a very interesting recruit and a big run would come as no surprise. He is currently available at 40/1 for the Triumph Hurdle.

A quick note on Asharann who runs in a handicap at Doncaster, his rating of 104 is harsh enough already and he won't be helped by being a further three pounds wrong the long handicap. He might benefit from the softer ground and if he learns to settle then the mark is somewhat feasible.

[Kotkijet]

Taunton's first juvenile hurdle of the season will be in its fourth year tomorrow and overall, it is not an especially strong event. Nevertheless, in last year's contest, the first, second and fourth went to the Fred Winter (the fourth finished second while the front two pulled up) and the third filled the same slot in the Victor Ludorum. This year's edition features two winners and some solid yards are represented, but it would still be a stretch to describe it as a good looking affair. A sharp and trappy venue, Taunton's winning DIs of 1.18 median, 1.38 mean, are higher than average and its figures are also tight in relation to the average runner. The clear round rate of 96.01% is very close to standard, although the rate of 91.43% with newcomers is in the bottom ten of British and Irish tracks. The going is currently heavy, soft in places, with moderate rain forecast in the interim.

Can't Stop Now chg Chris Gordon f6-0-2 (73) 74 j3-1-1 (124) 114 106
Starspangledbanner (Ivan Denisovich){1-n}(7.00) 2/1 Aviatorilor 3rd 3YO Hurdle, Argentan 2015
Twice placed on the flat and earning a rating of 73 before for Clive Cox, Can't Stop Now joined his new yard for 7,000 guineas in July. While he ran freely on his hurdling debut at Kempton, his novicey jumping settled down as the race progressed and though he faded to finish fifteen lengths third, it was not an effort without promise. However, he deprived himself of the opportunity to supplement that effort next time at Ludlow when virtually refusing to race and pulling up shortly after the start. The rain softened conditions at Fakenham late last month appeared to play against his strengths, and though he led from the outset, his price nearly doubled in-running as he pulled hard for most of the contest. His jumping was also poor as along with almost falling at the sixth, he got in very close to the first and veered badly right at two out. He also wandered into most of his hurdles including the last where he left his hind legs in the flight. Despite all of this, he finished the race better than any of his rivals and was eight lengths clear at the line, giving Starspangledbanner his first jumps winner. Everything about the performance was so anomalous that it is difficult to take at face value. Even if the best of his flat form and his Kempton experience gave him a chance in this contest, he pulled so hard and jumped so poorly that it is difficult to imagine that his superiority over all of his opponents is to be trusted. Neither of the two runners to come out of the race have achieved much and Can't Stop Now's undoubted speed may be compromised by the heavy ground. Nevertheless, he is still a winner in a moderate looking race so he can not be ruled out entirely.

Fighting Tiger bg Nick Williams Unraced
Elvstroem (American Post){4-i}(1.00) 0.5 Flying Tiger 1st Fred Winter (134), Cheltenham 2017
The unraced Fighting Tiger cost Nick Williams €40,000 as a yearling, and he is a half-brother to the yard's Fred Winter winner Flying Tiger. His dam is also a half-sister to Noble Request who won the Scottish Champion Hurdle, was second in the Fighting Fifth and Christmas Hurdles, and also won two races as a juvenile. The pairing of the dam with Elvstroem is somewhat peculiar if the intention was to produce a jumps horse given that the sire generally produces speedy types and while Danehill is a reliable sire of sires, Elvstroem's dosage index is the highest of them all in this sphere. Nevertheless, his sole three-year0old hurdler in France has been placed three times and American Post has been successful as a damsire. The yard has had three winners and two runners-up at the venue from eight juveniles and its record with unraced newcomers is better than average. However, the fact Fighting Tiger has already had a wind operation would be a concern.

Iron Heart bc David Pipe f8-2-3 (79) 81 j2-0-1 (-) 99 104
Muhaarar (Dubawi){10-b}(1.13) 2/1 Red Riverman 2nd Free Handicap Hurdle (121), Chepstow 2012
A dual flat winner, including on firm in a match at Salisbury on his final start for Andrew Balding, Iron Heart was weak in the market ahead of his hurdles debut at Wincanton in late October despite favourable conditions. His jumping was untidy and though he finished third, he also finished with a wound on his near fore some thirty lengths behind the winner. Following a break of fifty-two days, he jumped with caution at Newbury and was very hesitant and untidy at the first before steadying into the second. Though he was better over the next three, he skewed over the fifth and was close at the next two, stumbling on landing at the penultimate flight. As rotten luck would have it, he was found to have suffered an overreach on the same hoof he injured at Wincanton. That he stayed on up the run-in, albeit as a thirteen-length fifth, is a tribute to his courage and was vast improvement on his debut outing. He has yet to match his flat form and he may be even more reticent when facing hurdles once again. David Pipe gets winning juveniles at Taunton but they tend to come later in the season and his charges often improve with a handicap mark. He saddled Night Edition in last year's renewal of this contest but while he would finish second in the Fred Winter, he could only manage a one paced fourth in this weaker contest. Iron Heart has the ability to be competitive, but his jumping needs to become more assured, the ground is not certain to suit and the trainer may have an eye on other targets.

Masterdream bg Tim Vaughan f4-0-0 (73) 70 j1-0-0 (-) 36 40
Sea The Stars (Danehill Dancer){20}(1.40) 3/1 Vasco Marengo 1st 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2009
Between 2008 and 2013, Tim Vaughan's strike rate in the division never went below 16.67%. However, since October 2014, he has secured just one win from ninety-one attempts. Masterdream, a 56,000 guineas purchase at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, ran four times on the flat for John Oxx without winning, and did little to justify an official mark of 73. Unfancied ahead of his jumps debut in an introductory contest at Sandown, Masterdream lacked fluency and confidence at most hurdles, and was the first horse beaten before finishing completely tailed off. He is probably better that that showing and is taking a step down in class here. Nevertheless, the yard is not in a purple patch of form and Masterdream still has questions to answer.

Numberoneson bg Harry Whittington f5-1-1 (81) 78 j2-0-0 (-) 73 73
Camelot (Gone West){4-j}(1.38) 3/4 La Limagne 1st Prix Tanerko (Handicap Hurdle), Auteuil 2018
By Camelot, this fairly useful winner on the flat for Joseph O'Brien has the qualities to make a useful recruit and in Harry Whittington, joined a stable with a solid record in the sphere. However, despite being schooled by an eventer, he jumped very poorly on his two hurdles runs at Ludlow and Wetherby and was well beaten on each occasion. There is time for him to realise some of his potential, but his trainer's juveniles tend to hit the ground running and have an underwhelming record at Taunton.

Presgrave bg Jimmy Frost f6-0-1 (68) 76
Camelot (Indian Ridge){9-c}(0.84) 0.5 Humble Hero 3rd Novices' Championship Final (127), Sandown 2019
Another Camelot gelding formerly with Joseph O'Brien, Presgrave failed to win in five flat outings and his best effort was a third at Dundalk in March where he finished half a length behind surprise Huntingdon winner Dutch Admiral. He was then well beaten at Naas, finished midfield in a Killarney handicap off 74 and was last seen beaten six lengths in a soft ground, ten furlong handicap at Cork when last seen in mid-August. Shortly afterwards, he fetched 11,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale to join a yard without any winning juveniles from five. Only two of the fourteen that have left Owning Hill to run in the division, the best of whom being Needs To Be Seen who won one from six and cost 70,000 guineas. Presgrave is bred to do fine over hurdles and should have little problem getting the trip. However, he was withdrawn from an engagement at Roscommon due to heavy ground and has been tried in all manner of headgear with little affect on his questionable attitude.

Shutupshirley bg Robert Walford j2-0-0 (-) 91 95
Saddler's Rock (Tragic Role){6-f}(0.78) 1/0 Ede'Iff 1st Handicap Chase (101), Ludlow 2005
Robert Walford has had three winning juvenile hurdlers from just eight runners and while he has yet to send one to Taunton, he has a solid record overall at the Somerset venue. Shutupshirley, a stoutly bred half-brother to minor jumps winners, made his racecourse debut at Wincanton in late October and though jumping soundly, was profoundly outpaced throughout and only passed beaten horses in the straight. He managed to keep in touch with the field at Exeter next time, but was unable to maintain his position in the closing stages and was a one paced sixth. The ability to do well at a low grade is there and he should come into his own in time and over longer trips. However, while these waters are decidedly calmer, he is liable to find a few too quick once again.

Siempre Rapido bg Nick Mitchell f4-0-0 (70) 67
Outstrip (Cape Cross){9-c}(1.36) 2/1 Champagne Champ 1st Handicap Hurdle (124), Ffos Las 2019
Tailed off at Newbury on his debut last October, Siempre Rapido was initially rated 72 on account of a five length sixth on his return to the venue in June, and another sixth place finish at Kempton the following month. That rating was plausible when his first outing was taken in isolation, but the Kempton performance was not as strong and though meeting trouble in running, he faded tamely off the mark when last seen at Sandown in mid June. Since then, he has been gelded and makes his hurdling debut after 167 days off the track. New trainer Nick Mitchell is without a winning juvenile in four and is without a winner of any description since June 2018.
He is out of a half-sister to two winning jumpers, but Outstrip does not have the credentials of a successful sire in the division and Siempre Rapido carries stamina concerns with him into the race.

Theocrat bc Nigel Hawke f4-0-0 (65) 64 j2-0-0 (-) 87 100
Teofilo (New Approach){8-f}(0.52) 1/1 Novus Aditus 5th Juvenile Hurdle, Taunton 2019
Novus Aditus finished fifth in this race last season and Theocrat will be bidding to surpass that performance tomorrow afternoon. Never making the track for Jim Bolger, or reaching the frame in four outings for his current trainer, he was last seen seven weeks ago when tailed off at Ludlow. Five weeks prior, he made a fair introduction to hurdling when a near four length fourth behind Orchestral Rain at the same venue. His jumping improved to a degree between outings, but he was badly let down by his tendency to take a keen hold. No headgear has been applied and he still retains his testicles so that keenness might still be prevalent tomorrow. Nigel Hawke has his fair share of winners in the sphere and he managed to score at Wincanton on Boxing Day. Nevertheless, his record with juveniles at the venue is just one from thirteen and Theocrat was tailed off on his sole outing on heavy ground.

Wightman bg Mick Channon f12-1-4 (69) 77 j1-0-0 (-) 94 99
Anjaal (El Gran Senor){16-h}(1.50) 2/1 Les Arcs 8th Maiden Hurdle, Cartmel 2004
Wightman ran twelve times on the flat at distances up to an extended mile and recorded his sole victory five outings ago in a mile handicap at Salisbury off 67. Since then, he failed to reach the frame, including twice as a favourite, and his last effort in that sphere was an eighth of twelve at Wolverhampton a month ago. Anjaal has had only one juvenile hurdler but makes little appeal as a sire in the division and the damline's most notable jumper was Les Arcs who was famous for flopping at Cartmel before becoming a top class sprinter. He was sent off an unfancied 50/1 ahead of his hurdling debut at Newbury a fortnight ago. Held up just behind midfield, his jumping was rarely catastrophic but it did leave plenty to be desired as he had a habit of landing steeply. He made slight headway passing the cross-fence but never moved into a challenging position and finished quite tired. It was not a disgraceful performance and while he is a doubtful stayer, he may be helped by this sharper circuit.

Zellerate bg Mark Gillard b1-0-0 (-) 39 j2-0-1 (-) 81 69
Gutaifan (Barathea){16-f}(1.50) 2/2 Mirzam 2nd Mares' Handicap Hurdle (98), Worcester 2018
Tailed off in a bumper on his racecourse debut, Zellerate's hurdling debut at Exeter saw him make numerous mistakes in the rear before pulling up. He finished second next time at Fontwell where his jumping was slightly better without being free of errors. He was already getting reminders at the third and was tailed off and detached at the end of the back. However, he was able to pass his tired rivals to grab second on the line. The first time blinkers may have assisted his efforts, but he was still beaten by almost fifty lengths and it was a substandard performance by any general measure.

Volkovka bf Fergal O'Brien f5-1-2 FrF (81.4) 59 j3-1-0 (106) 95 99
Camelot (Anabaa){2-i}(0.71) 1/0 Drole de Dame 2nd 4YO Hurdle, Lyon Parilly 2011
While her last start for Simone Brogi came in a claimer, after which she was bought for €22,500, Volkovka's equivalent rating in the low 80s looks reasonable and would be the highest in this contest. Being a daughter of Camelot and closely related to several winning jumpers in France , she had feasible prospects for the discipline. However, her chances at Fakenham were compromised early on with some very poor jumping and finished by her hanging right. She reappeared at Leicester the following month and managed to complete the course, but not without some novicey jumping and a pair of bad blunders at the sixth and the last which cost her a third placed finish. Her flat ability gave her a strong chance in a weak Market Rasen contest early this month and she was able to take advantage with her best round of jumping to date. She got in slightly close to the penultimate flight but this did not cost her any momentum. Held up for much of the contest, she made headway on the long turn for home and was not hard ridden to run out a rather comfortable winner after getting a clear run a furlong from home. The standard of this form is nothing special and the third was well beaten at Catterick next time. Nevertheless, she won the race a shade cosily and with further improvement a fair possibility, comes into this contest with strong prospects for a yard which has had two winners in the past three days.

Impetuous bf Mark Gillard f7-0-0 (35) 43
Mayson (Mt. Livermore){14-f}(3.00) 3/1 Julius Caesar 1st Novices Handicap Hurdle (G3,116), Sandown 2005
Mark Gillard's second runner in the field, Impetuous ran seven times in Ireland for Edward O'Grady, with her best performance being a three and a half length third in a Sligo handicap off a mark of 45. That came over an extended five furlongs and there is no indication that she can get the trip. She also hung right when last seen in mid July.

Strong prospects
1. Volkovka
Reasonable prospects
2. Can't Stop Now
Feasible prospects
3. Fighting Tiger
4. Iron Heart
5. Wightman
6. Presgrave
Moderate prospects
7. Theocrat
8. Shutupshirley
9. Masterdream
10. Numberoneson
11. Siempre Rapido
Negligible prospects
12. Zellerate
13. Impetuous

[Kotkijet]

Lots of metta for all and probably some for myself as I am trying (and mostly succeeding) not to be vexed for missing Talking About You's race at Taunton today. As much as I enjoy making these contributions, one area which I definitely need to develop is structural time management. Granted, this is something which is inherently incompatible with ADD, it is the time of years for resolutions and all that jazz so this matter will receive some (in)attention. Anyways, this is the last preview for 2020 so it seems like a nice enough time to thank everybody for their input, support and simply just for reading. With this preview pushing the wordcount past 280,000, knowing that anybody would take the time to even skim that ocean of letters and numbers makes the task much less arduous. So to anybody reading this, I wish you a happy and healthy 2021

Tomorrow's juvenile at Punchestown will be the sixth held at the venue this season, and the fourth restricted to maidens. The first saw the introduction of Duffle Coat, though while the other two have produced subsequent winners, neither is likely to impact the season's better races in the manner that this contest has done historically. Since 2008, its hurdling debutants have included Grade One winners Jumbo Rio, Petite Parisienne, Unaccompanied and Pittoni, along with the Triumph Hurdle placed Mourad and Gardens Of Babylon. This year's renewal could potentially be quite influential as while those with Irish hurdling form look rather mediocre overall, Gordon Elliott's French import could have a touch of class and Joseph O'Brien saddles his highest rated ex-Ballydoyle horse of the campaign. Punchestown's average winning DIs of 1.00 median, 1.20 mean are the second lowest of all Irish courses with five or more races, with those figures being lower than those for the average runner. Its clear round rate of 95.63% is also lower than average and with the going forecast to be heavy, stoutness will be a considerable asset.

Anno Maximo bg David Harry Kelly f6-0-1 (62) 64
Maxios (Singspiel){7-f}(0.76) 2/2 Aachen 2nd Veterans' Chase Final (146), Sandown 2016
Although he has the second lowest flat rating in this field, Anno Maximo's profile is not a hollow one. Placed on his penultimate start in a Bath handicap off 60, he left Michael Bell for 10,500 guineas at the Tattersalls August Sale. Those who leave Fitzroy House have a solid winners to runners rate of 32.14% including Allmankind, Ruacana and Grumeti, all of whom were successful in Grade Ones. Maxios has well above-average figures across the board including a winners to runners rate of 43.75%, and the damline includes useful veteran chaser Aachen (2/2), and Atlaal (3/1) who was a decent juvenile ahead of winning the Lanzarote Hurdle the following campaign. There are a couple of negatives in the profile however, as only one of the trainer's ten runners in the sphere has been a winner, and Anno Maximo showed a tendency to hang on the flat. Though his best form came on firm, he is bred to handle softer conditions.

Away To Sea bg Joseph G Murphy f1-0-0 (-) 73
Born To Sea (Danehill Dancer{11-d}(2.00) 0.5 Thomas Hobson 1st Handicap Hurdle (A,143), Fairyhouse 2017
Despite getting worked up in the stalls ahead of his debut in August, Away To Sea ran creditably to finish fourth in a Tipperary maiden and is bred to make a hurdler. Born To Sea has already produced A Wave Of The Sea and Aspire Tower while the dam is a half-sister to Torpichen who can count Thomas Hobson and Fearless among her progeny. Of the yard's eight juvenile hurdlers, only Swamp Fox was a winner, although his hurdling debut did come when third in the 2015 renewal of this contest.

Coventry bc J Halley f2-0-0 (-) 60
Galileo (Dalakhani){23}(0.44) 2/1 Moon Indigo 1st Novices' Chase, Wetherby 2011
Moonstone went one place better than her dam when winning the Irish Oaks in 2008, and at stud, she has produced Ballysax Stakes winner Nelson, and Epsom Derby runner-up US Army Ranger. Coventry is a full-brother to the former, but failed to reach the first ten in a pair of Curragh maidens at two and three years old. The latter outing in June saw him finish ten lengths behind St Leger winner Galileo Chrome, but that was not enough for Aiden O'Brien to persevere with him, and he has since joined John Halley who usually ends up with the lesser Ballydoyle graduates. Galileo wins his fair share of juveniles but no more than that, and the same can be said of Dalakhani as a damsire in the division. The damline does include some useful jumpers with Moon Indigo at 2/1, Point Of Principle at 2/2, and Samurai Way at 3/1.

Duck And Vanish bg Denis Gerard Hogan f5-0-2 (72) 77
Lope De Vega (Shaamit){10}(1.67) 0.5 The Tiddly Tadpole 1st Handicap Hurdle (115), Hereford 2012
Broadly consistent in four outings this season for William Haggas, he was twice runner-up in twelve furlong maidens at Lingfield and Pontefract. Ex-Haggas juveniles have a 31.82% winners to runners rate and a solid improvement rate of 48.39%. Fetching 13,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, he joins a yard which gets winners in the sphere, but with a poor strike rate and an improvement rate of 28.57%. Duck And Vanish is a half-brother to two winning hurdlers and Lope De Vega gets winners, albeit with only a fair record overall. Not the worst newcomer to the sphere but Duck And Vanish is known to hang and has already undergone two wind operations.

Freds Honour bg E D Delany Unraced
Rock Of Gibraltar (Acclamation){16-c}(2.00) 3/1 Secret Spring 1st Novices' Hurdle, Kempton 1997
More often than not, unraced debutants in the division will be National Hunt bred, or cast-offs from large operations. In the case of Freds Honour, he is a homebred by Rock Of Gibraltar whose half-brother was placed over a mile and whose dam was a modest maiden on the flat. Rock Of Gibraltar, sire of Gimli's Rock and Rocky Wednesday, gets his fair share of winners and Acclamation is an above average damsire in the sphere despite being only fair as a sire. Eamonn Delaney has had just five juveniles since 2008, but one of them, Scooping, did win at 50/1 on his first try over hurdles at Down Royal in November 2014.

Kashi bg Karl Thornton f5-0-1 (63) 66
Manduro (Rahy){19-b}(0.89) 3/1 Purple Moon 2nd Scottish Triumph Trial, Musselburgh 2007
Karl Thornton has yet to have a winning juvenile hurdler from five horses running twelve races, although Duke Cass was twice placed in moderate company in 2016. He fields two runners here and while Kashi is the lower rated and less expensive of the pair, jockey Donagh Meyler has ridden considerably more horses for the Skerries trainer. Though a neck second on his racecourse debut at Kempton in June when starting 5/2 favourite, Kashi has been beaten by ten lengths or more on his other four outings and was last seen finishing a twelve length fourth in a two-mile Goodwood handicap off 65 in October. He was running in first-time cheekpieces, headgear is left off on this occasion, and has pulled and hung during his stint on the flat. Costing €22,000 as a yearling, he fetched 8,000 guineas at the Tattersalls to leave an Andrew Balding yard which has supplied winning juveniles such as Flaxen Flare and Hollow Tree, but has an improvement rate of 25.86%. Manduro has a winners to runners rate of 36.36%, including Rashaan and Baradari, although the improvement rate is a below average 29.41% and Rahy is not a prolific damsire. Nevertheless, the damline is a respectable one as along the half-sister was placed six times over jumps in France, the third dam produced three winning hurdlers, and 1999 French Champion Hurdle winner Vaporetto appears at 4/1 while Video Rock, runner-up in the 1985 edition is one row back at 5/1.

Loved Out bg Thomas Mullins f5-0-1 (62) 68 j2-0-1 (-) 105 103
Requinto (Mister Baileys){10-b}(1.15) 3/1 Brightner 1st Novices' Hurdle, Taunton 1988
Despite failing to win in five starts and bringing a moderate rating of 65 (now 62) to his hurdles debut over this course and distance last month, Loved Out began as 5/4 favourite. This was not without justification as the quality of the race was very poor by Punchestown standards and he might have won with a more assertive ride. His poor jumping had a larger bearing on his defeat it was not much better in a much stronger maiden at Leopardstown four days ago. Always in the rear, he was big and skewed over the first few obstables before developing a habit of steadying into his flights. Though he kept on to some degree on the long run-in, he was still over twenty lengths behind the third at the line. His course and distance performance would be the strongest Irish hurdling form brought into the race and the strength in depth is not as pronounced as it was four days ago. Notwithstanding, while Our Legend won after a week's lay-off for the yard last year, he was the only one of five for the yard to finish placed after returning within a week along with being the only one starting at 9/1 or less.

Persia bbc Joseph Patrick O'Brien f7-2-1 (96) 103
Galileo (Giant's Causeway){1-x}(0.77) No jumps relatives
Joseph O'Brien has used this race to introduce two ex-Ballydoyle horses in recent years, with A Year To Remember finishing third in 2016, and subsequent Triumph Hurdle third Gardens Of Babylon winning two years ago. Persia has a higher flat rating than either of those and is also his highest rated ex-Ballydoyle horse to run in the sphere this season. Twice a winner last season at Galway and Chelmsford, his best effort came when beaten half a length by Desgraves in the Group Three Eyrefield Stakes. His seasonal reappearance did not come until September when a three and a half length ninth in the Petingo Handicap off 100, and a midfield finish in another "Premier" handicap at Listowel later that month. Galileo wins his fair share of juvenile hurdles, but nothing more, and while his dam was third in her Irish Oaks, the damline is bereft of jumpers with only Brave Inca's sire Good Thyne being the only relative of note at 4/1. Stamina and ability to handle soft ground are not concerns, but while the yard has a fine first time out rate, they generally improve with experience.

Pretorius chg Gavin Cromwell f2-0-0 DeF
Durban Thunder (Saddex){1-e}(0.54) 2/1 Pahaska 2nd 3yo Newcomers Hurdle, Auteuil 2016
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-ra...external/18272
https://www.racebets.com/en/horse-ra...external/18435
Gavin Cromwell generally has a solid record in the sphere with 25% of his juveniles winning, and 64.29% of them improving for hurdles. However, he has now gone almost a year without a winner in the sphere and none of his six runners in this contest have finished better than eighth. This year he saddles two, and the first string appears to be the ex-German Pretorius. Pretorius finished midfield in two outings during the summer. The first being a Hamburg maiden which has produced just one subsequent winner, and the second another maiden at Cologne ran over nine furlongs. The winner has since done little in listed company and the runner-up is the sole subsequent winner. Sascha Smrczek has been the source of two other juvenile hurdlers, with Charlie Mann's Capone winning two races in 2018/19. However, both of these were rated considerably higher than Pretorius who also pulled extremely hard on his latest start. Durban Thunder, winner of the 2011 Bayerisches Zuchtrennen, has yet to be tested as a sire of juveniles in Britain, Ireland or France, but the Monsun line does quite well in this regard. The dam is a full-sister to fair French three-year-old hurdler Pahaska, and a niece of 2004 Wensleydale fourth Prairie Sun.

Raamez chg Gordon Elliott f8-1-0 FrF 36.5 (80.3) 81
Sea The Stars (Nayef){15-a}(1.86) 2/1 Takjreej 4th Selling Hurdle, Stratford 2012

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/raamez

Fran?ois Rohaut has been the source of six juvenile hurdlers since 2009, but none of them, including €220,000 purchase Military Bowl, were able to win during their opening campaigns. Raamez, a winner at Nantes last October, sold for roughly a tenth of that price at the Tattersalls Autumn sale but might have attracted more bids but for a dip in form that saw his valeur fall by four kilos. Sea The Stars has a very respectable history as a sire in the division but the damline is considerably less enticing and Nayef has only one winner from ten as a damsire. Gordon Elliott has won this contest five times since 2011 with an additional five reaching the first three. However, Raamez was an unused reserve four days ago and the yard has a much stronger candidate in Riviere d'Etel.

Rich Belief bg Karl Thornton f12-1-5 (76) 87
Make Believe (Dark Angel){5-h}(0.82) 2/1 Excellent Result 1st Novices' Hurdle, Kempton 2017
The more expensive and higher rated of Karl Thornton's pair, Rich Belief left James Bethell with a rating of 76 following a 24,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls in October. He twice finished first past the post as a two year old, but was disqualified for hanging left in a Haydock nursery off 78. Though he has failed to win in eight subsequent outings, he has not been disgraced and was last seen finishing a five length second at Catterick in a twelve furlong handicap off 78. None of the six former James Bethell horses won as juveniles and the new trainer's record recalls a similar tale. Winners Excellent Result (2/1) and Front Rank (3/1) appear on the damline and Make Believe's first crop of juveniles have been running with credit. Only Persia and Raamez bring higher flat ratings into the contest and the conditions should not present any major issues.

Saeer chg Gordon Elliott f4-0-1 (63) 65
Australia (Pivotal){6-e}(0.88) 2/1 Persian Warrior 1st Novice Hurdle, Stratford 2009
Saeer achieved only a modest third at Chester in four outings for Sir Michael Stoute and at 9,000 guineas, is one of the less expensive juveniles to leave that yard. King's Parade fetched the same amount before winning in 2010 but allowing for inflation, Saeer would be the cheapest such horse to score in the division should he deign to do so. Moreover, former residents of Freemason Lodge tend to achieve decent ratings as juveniles, although their overall winners to runners rate is 15.56% and only 25% will improve for the switch between codes. Australia has a respectable record in the division and the dam is a half-sister to winning novice hurdler Persian Warrior from the family of Restraint Of Trade (3/1) and Grumeti (4/3). Saeer may be a fair recruit with his sights lowered, but was another unused reserve at Leopardstown and will likely be happier in calmer waters.

Sweet Will bg Gavin Cromwell f3-0-0 (66) 65 j3-0-0 (-) 84 87
Dragon Pulse (One Cool Cat){3-d}(2.43) 2/1 Tapimix 8th Novices' Hurdle, Newton Abbott 2008
Since making his racecourse debut at Killarney in July, Sweet Will has been beaten upwards of ten lengths in three flat maidens, and upwards of thirty-two lengths in three juvenile maidens. His jumping has been reasonable on his last two starts, but there has been little other reason to be enthusiastic about his prospects.

Undercommunication chc Sean P Hennessy f5-0-0 (58) 56
Anjaal (Galileo){1-b}(0.52) 2/1 Tobar Na Gaoise 3rd Lartigue Hurdle (C,115), Listowel 2012
Undercommunication did little to warrant a rating of 64 in three outings for Fozzy Stack and has since finished down the field in a pair of handicaps for his new yard which will be saddling its first runner in the sphere tomorrow. Anjaal had his first winner in the division this afternoon with Wightman scoring at Taunton, and the dam, a half-sister to the fairly useful Tobar Na Goaise, has produced a winning hurdler.

Wonwabbitwon bg Anthony Mullins f5-0-1 (73) 73
Camacho (Langfuhr){20-c}(1.77) 0.5 English Pale 2nd 4YO Maiden Hurdle, Naas 2017
Anthony Mullins has yet to saddle a winning juvenile from seven horses, but Wonwabbitwon is rated higher than all of them. Though winless from five outings, he bookended his flat stint with reasonable performances at Leopardstown and the Curragh. However, the form of the latter, when fourth in heavy ground, has not worked out well as of yet and Camacho's record in the division is no better than standard. The blinkers he wore did not prevent him from edging right and are left off here.

Zanavi grg Denis Gerard Hogan f2-0-0 (-) 76
Champs Elysees (Dalakhani){9-c}(0.78) 2/1 Zebzardee 4th Prix Emilius (Unraced), Auteuil 2019
The second of the two Denis Gerard Hogan runners, Zanavi comes into the race less exposed and with stronger credentials. Though finishing down the field on his racecourse debut at Roscommon in July, he returned from a 100 day break to finish second of seventeen in a soft ground, twelve furlong maiden at the Curragh when last seen in October. He was caught in a box in the straight and still had eight horses ahead of him when angling out for a run a furlong from home. While the winner was not for catching, he stayed on powerfully to grab second in the shadow of the post. The form itself is nothing outstanding, and though Leylak and Caldwell have since come out to finish placed in the sphere, no rating higher than 80 could be justified. Nevertheless, the manner in which Zanavi quickened was likeable and he has a good size about him. Champs Elysees has a solid winners to runners rate of 25% and can get fairly useful sorts from average ones. A descendent of Petite Etoile puts Zanavi in the same family as the likes of Zaidpour, Zaynar and Zanahiyr, with Zarkali (4/1) and Zarkandar (4/2) being closer relatives. Former inmates of Dermot Weld have only a fair record and leaving him to join Denis Gerard Hogan for €34,000 at the Goffs Autumn Online Sale, 'fair' would be a generous way of describing his new handler's exploits. Nevertheless, this month saw him introduce Zoffanien and Call Me Rocky, each of whom ran and jumped creditably on their hurdles debuts.

Lady Kapalua bf J P Dempsey j2-0-0 (-) 22 22
Maxios (Champs Elysees){1-l}(0.76) 3/2 Hills Of Aran 2nd Rendlesham Hurdle (G2), Haydock 2009
Lady Kapalua was tailed off on her racecourse debut in the season's curtain raiser back in August, and on her return at Limerick four months later, was badly hampered by the first flight faller. From there, her jumping was untidy and she was detached from an early stage before pulling up at three out.

[Kotkijet]

Riviere d'Etel Gordon Elliott f1-0-0 (-) j1-0-1 (-) 124
Martaline (Indian River){8-c}(0.57) 1/1 Ria d'Etel 1st Prix Finot (Listed), Auteuil 2015

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/riviere-detel

The Prix Finot, held in early September, is a newcomers race with Listed status split between sexes. The fillies, or pouliches, version is often impactful on both the juvenile hurdling divisions in Britain and Ireland, as well as on the breed. The first two in 2009 produced Irish Grand National hero Burrows Saint and Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris winner On The Go. Insofar as racing careers are concerned, five of the eight imported after the race won in the division including Anniversary winner L'Unique and Finale runner-up Pepite de Soleil, while Gorgeous Sixty ran second in a Grade Three without winning in Ireland. This year's renewal was won by the fancied debutant Obeone ahead of Gordon Elliott's latest recruit, and full-sister to the 2015 winner, Rivere d'Etel, with the pair finishing twenty lengths clear of the remainder. Leading from the outset, Riviere d'Etel showed no benefit from her flat experience at Clairefontaine as she pulled extremely hard. This waywardness was also apparent in her jumping as she veered badly left at the first, and dived right at the second. She was able to settle into something of a rhythm but still made little errors such as steadying into the third and seventh, going big over the fourth, wandering into the eighth and going slightly right over the penultimate flight. Notwithstanding, she responded well to the challenge set by the winner and was passed only inside the final furlong before going down by a length and a half. The winner has not since been out and those who finished a long way behind have only smatterings of placed finishes to their names. Nevertheless, the winning time was over five seconds quicker than that set in the preceding listed handicap, and nearly twelve seconds faster than the four-year-old handicap which concluded the card. Seven of the thirteen juveniles formerly trained by Yannick Fouin have won in the division including the Style De Garde and Ptit Zig alongside the aforementioned Pepite de Soleil and Gorgeous Sixty. This season is set to mark the fourth time Martaline has been the leading sire of three-year-old hurdlers in France and his record in Britain and Ireland is also laudable. As well as being a full-sister to Ria d'Etel, who was later third in the Grabel Mares' Hurdle for Willie Mullins, Riviere d'Etel is also a half-sister to Kapcorse and their dam finished fifth in a Grade Three chase as a four-year-old. Gordon Elliott has won this race five times since 2011, including with Spring Hurdle runner-up Shadow Catcher, and Fred Winter hero Veneer Of Charm - each of who making their hurdling debuts. Incidentally, the only French hurdling import to contest this race since 2008 was another filly in 2013 winner Adriana des Mottes. Overall, Riviere d'Etel has a very strong profile and the only concern going into this race is the degree to which she has matured mentally since last seen, and how much of a detriment her greenness might have on her performance.

Roma Delight bf T M Walsh f10-0-4 UsF 30 j2-0-0 (-) 79 77
Paynter (Devil His Due){8}(2.20) 2/1 Arch Rebel 1st Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Leopardstown 2004
Formerly trained in the United States by Jeremiah O'Dwyer, Roma Delight would have been a peculiar import but for her being closely related to Arch Rebel. However, following a poor Irish debut at Dundalk, she ran a most peculiar race on her jumps bow over this course and distance last month before jumping too exuberantly from the front and getting caught with five furlongs to run nineteen days ago.

Strong prospects
1. Riviere d'Etel
Reasonable prospects
2. Zanavi
3. Persia
Feasible prospects
4. Raamez
5. Kashi
6. Rich Belief
7. Away To Sea
8. Anno Maximo
Moderate prospects
9. Loved Out
10. Wonwabbitwon
11. Saeer
12. Duck And Vanish
Negligible prospects
13. Pretorius
14. Coventry
15. Sweet Will
16. Roma Delight
17. Freds Honour
18. Undercommunication
19. Lady Kapalua

[Kevloaf]

Thanks.

If we ever set up a Fat Jockey awards, I'll back date one for you for either "new member of the year" or "longest essays" if it's a deep year when I look back in terms of new members

[Kotkijet]

Decided to get Musselburgh's one out of the way to free up a couple of hours tomorrow for talking to actual human beings. So yeah, metta for everybody and all that

2021 kicks off with a Northern Lights qualifier at the very Musselburgh where the ?35,000 final is due to be hosted in March. Typically half a stone stronger than the typical race at the venue, it also serves as a step towards the Scottish Triumph Trial with four horses reaching the frame in both races since 2014. Furthermore, Project Bluebook and Nietzsche, first and third in 2017, would go on to finish fourth and third respectively in that season's Fred Winter. Next year's renewal features three previous hurdling winners, alongside winning flat newcomers from the yards of Michael Scudamore, Keith Dalgleish and Donald McCain. A sharp and almost flat track, Musselburgh's average winning DIs of 1.10 median, 1.21 mean are just on the lower side of standard and its clear round rate of 96.24% is as close to average as is possible. Odds-on favourites have a decent strike rate of 68.75%, the median winning SP of 2/1`is the seventh lowest in Britain and the strike-rate of newcomers essentially matches that of experienced hurdlers. All of this combines to indicate that Musselburgh is one of the most straightforward racecourses around. The going is currently good to soft, soft in places, and sleet showers are forecast for the interim period.

Jorgie chg Jim Goldie f8-0-1 (51) 55 j2-1-0 (113) 99 102
George Vancouver (Lahib){9}(1.67) 4/3 Megans Joy 1st Tipperary Hurdle (G2), Tipperary 2008
Rated just 51 on the flat ahead of his hurdles debut at Perth, Jorgie ran out a decisive winner and would have won by further but for a lack of concentration costing him ground and momentum over the final two hurdles. However, it was a race which rather fell for him as his opponents were either poor or underperformed. He was subsequently offered at the Goffs UK Silver Yearling Sale in October but only went to ?2,000 and was retained by his owners. Since then, he posted a career best on the flat when second in a Southwell handicap off 48. A market drifter ahead of his hurdles return over course and distance twenty-five days ago, he was held up in midfield where a lack of confidence over the early jumps translated to an error at the fourth, which preceded a blunder at the next, which nearly saw him capitulate. He was slow over the remainder of his hurdles and was beaten by nearly fifty lengths in the end. Jorgie may be difficult to place for the foreseeable as his best form leaves him struggling under a penalty in ordinary company and his official mark of 113 looks absurdly harsh. Jim Goldie has three winners from twenty-three at Musselburgh, including Sir Chauvelin who won this race in 2016.

Kings Creek bg Iain Jardine f5-0-0 (62) 65 j4-1-1 (117) 113 115
Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 2/1 Point Of Origin 1st Handicap Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
Kings Creek had shown fair if unremarkable form in two runs for Alan King in the summer and after a ?12,500 transfer to Iain Jardine, ran to a similar level at Sedgefield in late September. His performances had been marked by an understated professionalism and while he was fresh early on his first run for seventy-seven days at Catterick twelve days ago, he jumped reasonably well once again. Always tracking the leaders, he moved into the lead turning into the straight and galloped on relentlessly under a hands and heels ride to win by five and a half lengths. The break clearly did him a world of good and he posted a new career best. The going was officially soft but the dry weather throughout the day likely made conditions less testing than anticipated and Kings Creek was pulled out of an intended engagement earlier this week at Wetherby on account of heavy ground. He is an honest horse who should be suited by these conditions, and only Fiveandtwenty has shown superior hurdling form. Iain Jardine's record with juveniles at Musselburgh is slightly better than that elsewhere, and while he has not had many winners recently, his horses are generally running to form.

Ajax Tavern bg Michael Scudamore f7-1-2 (78) 84
Canford Cliffs (Desert Style){14-c}(1.29) 4/1 Soleil d'Hiver 1st Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (72), Hexham 2004
Michael Scudamore probably enjoys his visits to Musselburgh as not only does he get to see the family, but he has also had three winners from nine at the venue. His latest raid includes Ajax Tavern who cost connections 40,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Since winning on his debut at Lingfield last new year's eve, he failed to score again for Richard Hannon in six subsequent starts. Nonetheless, he has still ran with credit on each occasion including when last seen finishing just over a length third in a mile handicap at Chelmsford off 78. However, the record of those formerly trained by Richard Hannon is just below par with a winners to runners rate of 16.28%, and an improvement rate of 38.71%. Furthermore, he never ran beyond a mile and all of his relatives on the distaff side are sprinters. Canford Cliffs does have good figures in the division and have produced decent juveniles including Cliffs Of Dover and Praeceps. However, his winning juveniles have an average DI of 0.89, compared to the 1.20 of his maidens.

Feldspar bg Keith Dalgleish f7-1-0 (59) 64
Champs Elysees (Sadler's Wells){9-e}(1.08) 2/2 Nearby 1st Elite Hurdle (L,145), Wincanton 2010
From Keith Dalgleish's twenty-four juveniles he has sent to Musselburgh, five have been winners and another eight have finished in the first three. He will be double handed in this contest with the first of his representative being the ex-Amanda Perrett trained Feldspar. Costing 6,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, he quickly recouped a good portion of his price tag by winning on his second outing for new connections in a fourteen furlong Wolverhampton handicap at the end of November. Though he finished midfield at Newcastle a few weeks ago, and his new mark of 59 is still one of the lowest in the field, there is reason in the pedigree to imagine that he can progress over hurdles. Champs Elysees has a solid winners to runners rate of 25% and can get fairly useful sorts from average ones. Sadler's Wells has a fine record as a damsire and there are several winning hurdlers on the damline including the fairly useful Badihar (3/1) and Elite Hurdle winner Nearby (2/2).

Go Bob Go bg R Mike Smith f7-0-1 (60) 64
Big Bad Bob (Motivator){21-a}(0.48) 0.5 B Cosmos 3rd 3-Y-O Maiden Hurdle, Down Royal 2015
One of three double handed trainers in this contest, R Mike Smith brings a pair of maiden flat recruits from his Ayrshire base. Go Bob Go is the more experienced of the two with seven runs to his name, and appears to be the first string on jockey bookings. Racing for Eve Johnson Houghton prior to a 10,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls in the Autumn, he was either soundly beaten or utterly trounced in most of his races. Nevertheless, he did get with a neck of winning a good ground, mid September Lingfield handicap off 59 in first time cheekpieces. While he wandered around up the straight, he did not look like he was neglecting his duties and the form looks decent in hindsight as the winner won four of his next five outings, the third was Hiconic, and the fourth won her next two starts. He was not disgraced on his latest start at Kempton as he failed to see out the additional two furlongs from the front. The trainer has yet to have a winner from five in the division, but he did get a couple of placed horses at Catterick earlier in the week. Big Bad Bob wins less than his fair share in the division, and Motivator is not as strong a damsire as he is a sire. Notwithstanding, his half-brother finished placed in the division, his dam is a half-sister to multiple winner Park Lane, and the talented Crystal Spirit appears in the echoes of the damline at 5/3.

Gypsy Traveller bg R Mike Smith f3-0-0 (58) 55
Alhebayeb (Indesatchel{4-d}(11.00) 2/1 Ormskirk 2nd Handicap Hurdle (106), Cartmel 2018
The second of the R Mike Smith pair, Gypsy Traveller has achieved little in three starts as a two-year-old for Kevin Frost, and his two racecourse visits this year each saw him to refuse to enter the stalls. The damline largely consists of speed horses, although the dam is a half-sister to winning hurdler Ormskirk and Alhebayeb has had two winning juveniles this season in Duffle Coat and Blue Slate.

Herbiers bg Oliver Greenall b3-1-0 66
Waldpark (Saddanian){u}(1.00) 1/0 Quanlanke 5th Prix Andre Michel (G3), Auteuil 2008

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/herbiers

After finishing fourth on his debut in a bumper at Vichy in May, Herbiers made amends by winning next time at Moulins the following month. There he made much of the running and though he was headed turning for home, he battled on bravely to score by short neck on the line. The runner-up followed up in a course and distance contest in September before winning on his hurdles debut at Auteuil by seventeen lengths where he had Paul Nicholls' Finale Hurdle entry Houx Gris back in third. The pair finished over five lengths clear of a subsequent winner and Herbiers passed the Arqana ring unsold despite attracting a bid of €100,000. However, whatever he eventually cost must have looked very expensive at Huntingdon back in November as was beaten by sixty lengths in a junior bumper. Incidentally, Mathieu Brasme's other import into the division was the €105,000 Sainte Doctor who was unplaced in four outings last season for Neil Mulholland and JP McManus. Sire Waldpark, the 2011 German Derby winner, has yet to have any juveniles winners either side of the channel from his first two crops, but there are numerous winning jumpers on the damline. Oliver Greenall gets his fair share of winners in the division and Gold Desert has done well for him this season. However, his juveniles typically improve for the run and while Herbiers could still technically be anything, and he forewent his Wetherby engagement in search of better ground, he does have to account for his Huntingdon showing.

Kiss My Face bg Brian Ellison b2-0-2 96 j1-0-0 (-) 98 94
Nathaniel (Dansili){20-a}(0.83) 0.5 Major Snugfit 2nd Handicap Hurdle (79), Sedgefield 2020
Kiss My Face had twice been placed in bumpers and and represents a good yard for the discipline, although Brian Ellison has had just one winning juvenile from twenty-seven at the venue. He was not unfancied ahead of his hurdles debut at Catterick, but his jumping left a great deal to be desired. He made errors at most flights, including getting close on several occasions as well as pecking on landing. There were a couple of incidents where he was baulked and bumped, including on the approach to the penultimate flight. He also covered more ground than most as he switched from an inside position in the back to going widest of all turning for home. These factors will have impacted his performance but not to the extent that he might have finished significantly closer. For a horse so inexperienced, it would be fair to not judge him too harshly on this outing. Nevertheless, he still needs to build on this performance in terms of aptitude and maturity before he begins to reach his potential.

Machios brg Keith Dalgleish f8-1-2 (72) 76 j1-0-1 (-) 93 93
Maxios (Shamardal){3-j}(1.15) 2/1 Hallings Comet 1st Maiden Hurdle, Worcester 2013
Prior to fetching 25,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, Machios had an eight race career for Andrew Balding which included a win and two placings with his best form came on softer ground. He had a tendency to pull hard which was also the case in the early stages of his hurdles debut at this course twenty-five days ago where he was quietly fancied before the off. He was untidy at a few flights and not the quickest getting away, but his jumping had more reasonable moments than otherwise. Making headway into third five furlongs from home, he could not match the front two for speed. Nevertheless, he was able to stay on and increase his gap over the remainder. He was not disgraced on his introduction to the sphere and is likely to come on for the experience, although he would prefer sterner conditions and there is no reason why he might reverse placings with Fiveandtwenty.

Red Missile bg Lucinda Russell f6-1-1 (82) 89 j2-0-2 (106) 97 105
Battle Of Marengo (Notnowcato){4-m}(0.76) 2/1 Carry On Sydney 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Market Rasen 2014
Red Missile's last flat run for William Haggas saw him earn an RPR of 89, which looks fully justified in retrospect. However, some greenness on his hurdling debut at Perth saw him nowhere near to that level, even if it was not a bad outing in isolation. With the cheekpieces reapplied from his Lingfield win, Red Missile jumped much better from the front when last seen at this course in early November, and kept his lead up to the penultimate flight where he made his first slight error of the race. He was also low going through a couple of panels at the last but was a beaten horse by that stage. This was an improvement on his Perth outing and he is capable of being competitive at this level. However, his best flat form is looking like an anomaly and he did sweat up before racing quite keen last time so he does have questions to answer. Lucinda Russell saddled Thorpe to finish second in this race in 2014, but has just one winning juvenile from twenty-five at the venue and while his handicap mark of 106 looks fair, connections have opted to keep him in open company,

Willy Nilly bg Donald McCain f7-2-0 (67) 71
Morpheus (Danehill Dancer){11-d}(1.40) 3/2 Torpichen 1st Fishery Lane Hurdle (Listed), Naas 2009
The first of Donald McCain's two runners in the race, Willy Nilly scored twice during the summer for Clive Cox, including when landing 1/16 odds in a match at Salisbury back in August. Only 13.04% of Clive Cox's former inmates win in the division and all of Willy Nilly's good form came on firm ground on undulating circuits. He joined Donald McCain for 14,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and while the likes of Torpichen (3/2) and Thomas Hobson (3/3) appear on the damline, Morpheus has yet to sire a winning juvenile from six. Donald McCain has five winners, five seconds, and a third from nineteen juveniles at the venue since 2010, but he has a much stronger candidate in Fiveandtwenty.

Fiveandtwenty brf Donald McCain f10-3-1 (78) 86 j1-1-0 (-) 120 119
Farhh (Woodborough){14-c}(2.43) 2/1 Sleepy Hollow 5th Mersey Novices' Hurdle 2010
Fiveandtwenty had ten starts on the flat for Mark Johnston, including three handicap wins which came in the space of four races between July and September. The sequence began with wins over twelve furlongs at Ripon and Catterick on good and heavy ground, and was rounded off with a fourteen furlong success at Musselburgh on good to firm off a mark of 75. She was last seen on the flat finishing weakly at Bath and Nottingham before joining Donald McCain. The three horses who previously made the journey between the yards failed to score in the division. Nevertheless, this season has seen the beginning Middleham Park Racing utilising the services of the master of Bankhouse and it has paid off handsomely thus far with Genever Dragon and Fiveandtwenty making winning starts to their second careers. Though slightly keen early over this course and distance, she put her front running style to good effect and was very neat over her hurdles in the early stages. Her jumping began to unravel as she began to tire late on, but her initial fluency had her rivals in trouble a long way out and she came home unchallenged. It is worth bearing in mind that the jumping in behind was not of the highest standard and that she was a tired horse in the concluding phases. Nevertheless, it was a visually impressive debut, there was much to like about her attitude and aptitude, and the ground is unlikely to be any softer come Friday.

Strong prospects
1. Fiveandtwenty
Reasonable prospects
2. Kings Creek
3. Red Missile
4. Herbiers
Feasible prospects
5. Kiss My Face
6. Go Bob Go
7. Ajax Tavern
8. Machios
Moderate prospects
9. Willy Nilly
10. Feldspar
Negligible prospects
11. Gypsy Traveller

[Kotkijet]

Thanks.

If we ever set up a Fat Jockey awards, I'll back date one for you for either "new member of the year" or "longest essays" if it's a deep year when I look back in terms of new members

Appreciate it Kev, but this is the only award I desire in life