Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

[Kotkijet]

Southwell has been in the news recently due to a spate of fatalities at the racecourse. There is a theory that as the track is so flat and easy, the horses go too quickly which leads to their getting tired and making mistakes. While this is just a theory, the statistics bear out the notion that Southwell is a very challenging National Hunt course. Since the 2009/10 season only two horses have won at the Southwell as juveniles and those came as four-year-olds. Their average DI of 1.21 does not tell us anything but despite being such a fast track, it is the fifth slowest in the country in terms of seconds per furlong. What is more illuminating, and worrying, is the attrition rate of juvenile hurdlers at the track. Eighty-four juveniles have raced at Southwell during this time period yet twenty-four of them failed to complete the course. This completion rate of 71.43% is a chasm behind any other racecourse in the UK or Ireland with Galway next at 78.46% just behind Sedgefield on 78.47%. Incidentally, 98.48% of juveniles hurdlers completed races at Killarney with Haydock leading UK racecourses with a rate of 94.31%.

The last time Southwell hosted a juvenile hurdle was in February 2006 which saw just seven of the thirteen starters complete and two of those were tailed off. It is set to host one for three-year-olds this Thursday but in truth, such a race should not be taking place. Particularly while the racecourse is still under investigation. Should it go ahead then I will review the race for the sake of continuity. However, as interesting a little contest this race might be, I do not feel comfortable endorsing such an unnecessarily risky and potentially damaging spectacle by previewing it ahead of time.

[Istabraq]

Yes I remember the same questions were levied at Aintree a few years ago, especially if they allow the ground to get quick....

[Kotkijet]

Yes I remember the same questions were levied at Aintree a few years ago, especially if they allow the ground to get quick....

Those who do not learn from the past are doomed to repeat it. Those who do learn from the past are doomed to watch on as others repeat it.

Insofar as the Grand National was concerned, there was a fair amount of faffing around with the ground and fence heights and for a while and some of the cures were worse than the symptoms. Nevertheless, the figured out that speed kills and while the sanitised race we have today probably isn't a huge deal safer than the old school big fences on soft ground editions (save for Beecher's Brook), it has taken a huge amount of heat away from the sport which is ultimately in the best interests of all involved.

With Southwell, there were commentators who could see Thursday's unmitigated disaster coming from a mile away and the BHA had access to decades worth of precedents and solutions along with an overabundance of opportunity to appreciate same. It took more effort create this PR calamity than it did to avoid it yet it happened anyway and the only saving grace is that this took place during the quietest possible meeting. If people are not going to resign over this shambles then they are completely shameless.

Preview review
I did not preview the race as I did not agree with it going ahead in the first place. While there were no reported injuries in this race, most of the horses were spent forces a fair way from home. Although Billy The Squid dispatched of Connor Brace in spectacular fashion at the last, it is only through sheer luck that all of the horses stayed on their feet as there was some very awkward and very tired jumping in the home straight. That two very experienced and typically safe jumpers would lose their lives earlier on the card is very sad. That those deaths came as no surprise to anybody is disgusting. That the meeting was allowed to go ahead while under investigation over safety concerns is nothing short of astonishing. There is somebody at the BHA whose job it is to avoid this incident but yesterday was an emphatic demonstration of profound ineptitude. If the BHA is to be taken remotely seriously insofar as welfare is concerned, then they clearly need to employ people who are not so pathetically unqualified.

Race review
While the standard of form was unexceptional, it had an intriguing line up for the level as it contained four runners who had been placed over jumps and three newcomers with winning flat form. However, the majority of the field finished tired and the time per furlong was slow despite the race being run on fast ground. Most of the field finished tired and insofar as future races are concerned, the caveat of how much this race will have taken out of them will applies across the board. Furthermore, given the anomalous circumstances, the reliability of the form cannot be readily accepted which makes for an entirely unsatisfactory and unnecessary contest. If there is never another jumps race held at Southwell, it will not be soon enough. There was money for Thunder King while Ranco drifted in the market but there were valid reasons for both of these movements on paper. There were no hard luck stories during the race.

Bannister's sole effort on the flat last season along with his finishing second at Stratford were marked by greenness but they were not without promise. He did disappoint last time at Market Rasen but was able to settle much better when allowed to lead here. Apart from being slightly untidy at the fifth, he jumped well from the front and though Billy The Squid went odds-on in-running, Bannister never really looked in any serious danger. He almost certainly had the measure of Billy The Squid and while he was ridden out to the line, he showed no reluctance to do so. Strictly on form, he did not achieve much more than he did on his Stratford run but it does represent some fulfilment of his promise and if the race leaves no ill effects, he can progress further from here. 106

Thunder King represented an Amy Murphy yard which has already tasted success in juvenile hurdles this season through Soldier On Parade and Topkapi Star. A fast finishing winner of a Windsor handicap on his penultimate start off a mark of 60, Thunder King's form entitled him to be competitive at this level. There were reservations to be had about his resolve when tired as he has a tendency to drift in the closing stages and while his stallion has some solid qualities, he is predominantly from a family of sprinters. In yesterday's conditions, the stamina of most juveniles would have been given a searching test and while Thunder King finished very tired, he was still able to beat a few home. His jumping was not assured in the early stages, he was being ridden before halfway and he was tired and awkward over the last few flights. He also reportedly lost a near hind shoe. This was not an outing without promise as there is scope for him to improve but it was a long way from a kind introduction and though he is capable of being competitive, his willingness would first need to be demonstrated. 86

Fraterculus has the strongest flat form from the UK or Ireland in the field though he has yet to match that level over hurdles. He has the size to jump and there was encouragement to be drawn from his second run at Uttoxeter but this effort represented a backwards step. His jumping was as good as it has been thus far but it did fall apart as he tired quite badly which was also the case at Cartmel. There is still a chance for him to mature into the hurdler his flat form suggests he can be, but he would prefer more forgiving conditions. 77

Jean Mary had shown nothing in either three starts on the flat or two starts over hurdles, and the 999/1 starting price on the exchanges was a fair reflection of her chances. Her jumping was a little more fluent than what she had previously shown, and it would be fair to describe this as a career best, but it was still poor from a form perspective. That she was only six lengths, or a mistake from those ahead, from running into a place reflects badly on the reliability of the form. 64

I'm Easy had shown next to nothing in three starts on the flat although he is related to several winning hurdlers. Nevertheless, he lacked fluency first time out and was beaten by nearly fifty lengths. He needs to improve considerably before he is competitive in any company. 60

Ranco is a dual winner on the flat in France and was claimed out of the Jérôme Reynier yard after winning last time out at Vichy. The second and the fifth from that race have subsequently won three claimers between them and while claiming form is still claiming form, it was still the strongest in the field. Apart from getting close to the third, he jumped fine over the first few flights but he was another whose jumping fell apart as he got tired and after initially racing close to the lead, he would finish a tailed-off last. Much has already been written about David Pipe's French imports so without belabouring the point, it suffices to say that he will probably leave this form a long way behind. 57

Billy The Squid has improved with every race over hurdles and while his going odds-on in-running did not appear to be justified, he was probably going to finish runner-up and match his latest Uttoxeter effort in the process. He is not a characteristically good traveller and was already getting reminders at the halfway stage. However, he was also getting tired and got in very close to the sixth and seventh flights. He was barely able to lift his feet over the last and while the jockey was catapulted from the saddle, Billy The Squid was very lucky to find a hoof otherwise he would have taken a very nasty head-first fall. He can continue to be competitive at this level if showing no ill effects from the race. 99

Global Agreement made a promising start to his hurdles career when finishing second at Cartmel and recorded the highest performance rating over hurdles in this field. However, at Uttoxeter he seemed to lose interest after a bit of a barging match over an early flight. This lack of interest was carried over to this race where he was being given reminders immediately after flag-fall. He never travelled, made a mistake at the third and was steady at the fourth before pulling up with three left to jump. It might make sense to reevaluate his Cartmel performance, as while he did not travel well there either, he still plugged on for second. Nevertheless, there is also the chance that he has simply gone sour on the sport.

The Trendy Man managed to win one of his twelve races on the flat although that was off a mark of just 46 in a race where the only subsequent winner did so in a poor Ripon seller. His granddam is a half-sister to Stayers Hurdle winner Karshi but sire Dandy Man has a poor record in this sphere. In any case, The Trendy Man screwed over the third and lost his jockey in the process. 0

[Kotkijet]

To wash out that sour taste, Fontwell hosts an interesting juvenile hurdle tomorrow which sees the participation of a previous winner along with imports from France and Ireland representing strong stables. Fontwell is one of the more challenging racecourses in the UK as the average winning DIs for juveniles are 1.32 mean and 1.00 median and those figures are approximately 0.2 points lower than the standard course participant. The average seasonal RPR of 116 is just below middling but this is not to say that top class juveniles are averse to visiting Fontwell as the Sussex venue has attracted the likes of Goshen, Christopher Wood and Sussex Ranger over recent years. The early September juvenile hurdle is a regular feature on the card and while this year's renewal looks no better than standard, it would still be one of this season's stronger contests thus far.

Incidentally, those with sharp eyes and little else to do will notice that Nyah and Topkapi Star are from the same thoroughbred family. They each share a tenth dam in the 1930 Phalaris mare Carpet Slipper. Carpet Slipper’s filly Godiva completed the Oaks/1000gns double in 1940, and her son Windsor Slipper completed the Irish triple crown in 1942. Punjabi, Agrapart and Valiramix are just a few of the top hurdlers to have descended from this influential classic broodmare…

Big Jimbo chg G Moore f4-0-1 (49) 46 j1-0-1 (-) 80 83
Helmet (Pastoral Pursuits){9-c}(0.45) 3/1 Tiger Trek 1st Maiden Hurdle, Thurles 2014
Gary Moore has a healthy overall strike rate of 18% at his local track and with sixteen winners from forty-four outings since 2009/10, his record with juvenile hurdlers is even stronger. Tomorrow he will be represented by Big Jimbo who finished third on his hurdling debut at Bangor. He was beaten nearly thirty lengths that day but that was still better than anything he had achieved on his three flat outings as a two-year-old. He since returned to the flat to finish runner-up in a 0-50 Classified Stakes over ten furlongs at Bath. He was beaten six lengths off level weights there and the winner was well beaten five days later over the same course and distance off just 53. On bare form, Big Jumbo looks completely out of his element in this company and if he came from any other yard then it would be easy to dismiss his prospects. However, Gary Moore won the 2017 and 2018 renewals of this race with horses sent off at 14/1 and 16/1. While those horses had marginally better form and pedigrees, and the yard has sent out short priced horses that were beaten in this race, such a record means that Big Jimbo cannot be wholly discounted.

Highlander Madrik chg David Pipe f6-1-1 (72.6) 69
Masterstroke (Redback){1-b}(0.33) 2/1 You're The Top 1st Novices' Chase, Kempton 2009
Horses claimed out of French flat races do not have a strong record but the exception to that rule is David Pipe who prior to this year, had won with two of three such purchases over the past decade. However, records have shown that they usually take a few races in the UK before hitting their stride and the yard's Sans Logique and Ranco both disappointed on their first starts on these shores. Highlander Madrik was claimed after finishing second over fifteen furlongs at Dieppe and while a couple of subsequent winners were in behind, the form of the race is fairly standard. The equivalent flat rating of 72.6 is the strongest official mark in the field by some margin although it is still lower than those carried by the aforementioned pair as too was the price tag of €12,333. Masterstroke, who this year joined Yorton Farm Stud after standing in France, is a Monsun stallion out of a half-sister to Galileo. He has yet to have a UK/IRE jumps winner from his first three crops but does have a 33% winners to runners rate with his French jumpers including the useful three-year-old of 2018, Floridee, recent three-year-old chase winner Hades and Nicky Henderson’s new inmate Paros. Redback mares have produced three winning juveniles from five and Highlander Madrik's dam, who is from the family of You're The Top and Old March, won four times over jumps including a chase at three years old. Furthermore, David Pipe is two from eight with juveniles at Fontwell since 2009/10 and won this race with Talimos in 2009. Highlander Madrik is unlikely to be hitting the ground running on his first start in the UK and he was taken out of his intended first run early last month at Newton Abbot due to a reported temperature. Nevertheless, he otherwise has the profile to be very competitive in this field and is another who cannot be wholly discounted.

Nyah bf Emma Lavelle Unraced
Assertive (Singspiel){5-h}(1.18) 2/1 Rosecliff 1st Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2006
Emma Lavelle sent out Talent To Amuse to win a pair of hurdles during the 2016/17 season but has otherwise failed to strike with her other six juveniles since 2009/10. Heez A Cracker is the only other racecourse debutant from the yard to start in such a contest and he did not begin to show form until tackling longer distances. Stallion Assertive has been standing since 2009 yet only five of his offspring have raced over jumps and none of them have collected prizemoney. Nyah is out of a half-sister to a winning hurdler but that is the extent of jumping on the immediate damline and while Singspiel has a fair record as a damsire, it is not outstanding among these runners. Unraced horses have a low strike rate in juvenile hurdles and there is not nearly enough within Nyah's profile to make her sufficiently compelling at this stage.

Orchestral Rain bg Dr Richard Newland f1-0-0 (-) 69 j1-0-1 (-) 116 111
Born To Sea (Val Royal){23}(2.43) 2/1 Crafty Codger 1st 3YO Hurdle, Punchestown 2014
Orchestral Rain made a promising debut on the flat and his finishing third on his hurdles bow at Roscommon was similarly encouraging. As with his flat debut, he was rather green and somewhat lacking pace at stages but other than being slightly wary approaching the third, he put in a decent round of jumping with scope for further improvement. That Roscommon race has since worked out well as from those who finished in the first seven with subsequent runs, the winner followed up at Down Royal, the runner-up won a flat handicap, the sixth won at Ballinrobe and the fourth and seventh were each second on their next hurdles outings. In Dr Richard Newland, he has joined a trainer whose winner to runner and upper quartile RPR ratios are the best in this field. His juvenile form figures at Fontwell read 3132 and he sent Vosne Romanee to win this race in 2014. Born To Sea counts the classy A Wave Of The Sea and Aspire Tower along with triple winner Malangan among his early crops of juveniles, and Orchestral Rain's dam is a half-sister to winning juvenile Crafty Codger from the family of Alflora, Ardross and Scorpion. Any stamina concerns from the Born To Sea x Val Royal cross appear to be mitigated by the damline and Orchestral Rain's racecourse performances. Even if one looks at the fact that none of the ten ex-Willie McCreery juveniles over the past decade have won in the UK, Orchestral Rain's run at Roscommon already exceeds anything produced by that group. The only blemish on this profile is that Orchestral Rain has yet to actually win a race but if he is happy with being in front then he will be a most interesting contender.

Poker Master bg Philip McBride f2-0-0 (-) 56
Sepoy (Mastercraftsman){4-i}(3.00) 3/3 Hipsters 1st Prix Go Ahead (L), Auteuil 2019
Poker Master was beaten by nearly thirty-five combined lengths in a couple of midsummer flat runs at Newmarket and Wolverhampton, and was 150/1 when refusing to enter the stalls prior to a Yarmouth maiden in July. Poker Master has some handy French stayers (2/1 Bathyrhon, 3/2 Brigatin) and jumpers (Besakih 3/2, Please God 3/3) on his damline and damsire Mastercraftsman is one of the best sires in the division. However, the yard's sole hurdles runner was tailed off in a 2016 Warwick juvenile and Sepoy's progeny are winless from thirty-seven hurdles runs.

Topkapi Star bf Amy Murphy f9-0-2 (60) 74 j1-1-0 (-) 90 93
Golden Horn (Thousand Words){5-h}(1.00) 3/2 Daybreak Boy 1st Conditions Hurdle, Clonmel 2019
Topkapi Star ran some fair races for Roger Varian on the flat last year but shown poor form in a variety of headgear in three flat races this summer. She would enjoy a resurgence of sorts at Uttoxeter when she made a winning hurdles debut in a first time hood. Backed before the off, she was the only horse in the race to jump and travel comfortably and showed a professional attitude in the finish. The runner-up that day looked set to fill the same position at Southwell before unseating although the third and fourth were both well beaten in that same race. The most generous evaluation of that form will leave her with something to find here and she will have been done no favours by her penalty. Notwithstanding, if she does not revert to her inconsistent ways then her ability to jump and run to the line affords her ample credibility.

Talking About You bf Sean Curran f6-0-1 (60) 60 j2-0-2 (101) 89 99
Sixties Icon (Mastercraftsman){9-h}(0.50) 3/1 Princess Caerani 2nd Mares' Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2014
Prior to making her hurdling debut at Newton Abbot, Talking About You looked likely to be withdrawn due to her recalcitrance. She did consent to race but while her keenness and poor jumping seemed likely to see her finish tailed off, she was able to plug on for third place. Mounted at the last possible moment prior to her latest start at Sedgefield, she still sweated and pulled hard but there was a discernible improvement in her attitude and jumping. Nevertheless, she did drift on the run-in and was unable to take advantage of the winner taking the third on a very scenic route to the line. Talking About You has the ability to be competitive at this level and has improved with every run during the summer. She also has solid sirelines for the division and curiously, juveniles by Sixties Icon have two wins, a second and four thirds from twelve runs at Fontwell since 2013. There are concerns over her overall form, and her attitude, while improving, still leaves plenty to be desired. Nevertheless, there are still enough positives in her profile to grant her some respect.

Strong prospects
1. Orchestral Rain
Reasonable prospects
2. Topkapi Star
Feasible prospects
3. Talking About You
4. Highlander Madrik
Moderate prospects
5. Big Jimbo
Negligible prospects
6. Nyah
7. Poker Master

[Kotkijet]

There has been a huge move for Big Jimbo who is currently a best priced 9/2 after being available at 14/1 yesterday. While this was alluded to in the preview, Big Jimbo needs to find at least thirty pounds worth of improvement out of thin air in order to win this race. For the sake of integrity, I am hoping this is a wild over-adjustment based on the trainer's record than it being a full blown plot.

[Istabraq]

There has been a huge move for Big Jimbo who is currently a best priced 9/2 after being available at 14/1 yesterday. While this was alluded to in the preview, Big Jimbo needs to find at least thirty pounds worth of improvement out of thin air in order to win this race. For the sake of integrity, I am hoping this is a wild over-adjustment based on the trainer's record than it being a full blown plot.

These types of races are ripe for a plunge though Kotkijet, a bit like the average 2yo maiden full of debutants, any positive word will see prices plunge especially if it;s a relative outsider where liabilities are greater for layers...

[Kotkijet]

That's a fair point. There won't be much liquidity in the books for that type of race either.

Big Jimbo running into a place is perfectly feasible but a win would require quite the leap. Plus the favourite is steady so it may well be each-way money for the Moore horse...

[Middle_Of_March]

I’ve just stumbled across this thread and although it’s been said already, I just wanted to add my praise. This is astonishingly brilliant research. I can’t imagine the time you’re putting into this Kotkijet but I Thankyou for the brilliant insights into a race type that i personally would say is my weakest. Juvenile racing is notoriously difficult unless you’re prepared to put in the time and effort you have been doing so thanks for that.

[Priceiskey]

I’ve just stumbled across this thread and although it’s been said already, I just wanted to add my praise. This is astonishingly brilliant research. I can’t imagine the time you’re putting into this Kotkijet but I Thankyou for the brilliant insights into a race type that i personally would say is my weakest. Juvenile racing is notoriously difficult unless you’re prepared to put in the time and effort you have been doing so thanks for that.

What MOM said. Cracking write ups.

[Kotkijet]

Genuinely appreciate it lads.

There has been a break in juvenile hurdling during which time I have extended the big spreadsheet to include every juvenile hurdler since 2008/09. Apologies for missing the preview for the Punchestown race and there are a couple of reviews due which will be posted now.

FONTWELL

The field assembled for Fontwell's first juvenile of the season was no better than average but there were winners from the flat and jumps along with a promising import from Ireland. It was taken by an improving maiden who set a searching gallop which secured her the race before the turn for home. The winning time was nearly six seconds slower than the opening novice hurdle taken by penalised 128 rated front-runner. This puts the quality of the form in perspective and it is fair to assume that a couple of these ran below par for whatever reason. Nevertheless, the first four places were filled by horses with hurdling experience and the winner was the best on the day.

Talking About You's disposition had looked suspect on her previous two starts over hurdles but a pre-race routine of being kept from her rivals saw improvement on her debut effort and the same precautions were employed here. She was keen in the early stages but once she was allowed her head, she settled into a comfortable rhythm. She wandered into the fourth flight before walking through it but otherwise she put in a polished and effcient round of jumping which clearly helped her cause. There was already a gap between herself and the field after the third flight and that gap never looked like being closed. She could be called the winner some way from home but it would be unfair to suggest that James Davies somehow stole the race as her rivals has ample opportunity to make inroads and most were tired before the home straight. She was ultimately a decisive winner and was eased to a walk at the line. However, her superiority ought not be overestimated as she hung quite badly after the last and stopped very quickly when eased which would suggest that she did not have a great deal left in reserve. Nevertheless, this marked another step forward and as connections learn more about her, she is capable of further improvement. 105

Big Jimbo had little right to be involved here on the basis of his debut run at Bangor and a more recent spin on the flat still left him with plenty to find. Representing a yard that does well with juveniles at the track, he was the subject of a market move throughout the day although this was not sustained in the ring. Kept towards the rear for much of the race, he stayed on past beaten horses and while he never threatened the winner, he finished clear of the remainder. He was slightly big at the first and late going into the sixth but his jumping was otherwise fine and this represents a career best. The improvement can be put down to an appreciation of a trip which rather belies his pedigree but it must also be noted that he was gelded since his debut effort. There is scope for further improvement although he is probably not a great deal better than this level. 102

Orchestral Rain's UK bow can only be regarded as a disappointment since a mere reproduction of his promising Roscommon run would most likely have been enough to win this race. While he was big at the first, his jumping was fine although he was late at consecutive flights in the back straight. He was the last of those tracking the winner to be beaten but was a spent force in the straight and barely clambered over the final two flights. He shaped like a the trip would be fine in his two prior runs although there were some marginal doubts on his sirelines. It is possible that a lack of concentration caused a few of his errors and consumed more energy than was necessary so he could benefit from the application of headgear. This inexperienced horse has already shown himself to be better than this and can be forgiven this outing for the time being. 96

Topkapi Star won at Uttoxeter but was another who failed to build on a promising debut. She was not as fancied in the market on this occasion and while she jumped and travelled well enough for a long way, she weakened tamely when turning for home. She was not the most consistent type on the flat and this was not a going day for her. Furthermore, the race she won at Uttoxeter looked poor at the time and has not worked out brilliantly either. Topkapi Star is better than this but a reproduction of her best form is not assured and would still leave her vulnerable under a penalty in any case. 81

Poker Master had only two of his fifteen rivals behind him in a couple of flat races during the summer so there was not a great deal expected of him here. His jumping was perfectly acceptable here and he could be competitive in a weak enough contest in the future but there was little else immediately encouraging about this effort. 77

Highlander Madrik won on the flat in France and was sent off second favourite here but finished a tailed off last. He was not fluent at the first and found himself rather squeezed out early on but was already tired by the back straight. He was beaten a long way from home but like others from his yard with his background, it is not unfair to assume that he can eventually build considerably on this effort. 49

Nyah was making her racecourse debut for a yard not renowned for its juvenile hurdlers. Setting off in the rear, she skewed badly over the first and while he was fine over the second, he effectively refused at the third and got rid of her jockey in the process. 0

PUNCHESTOWN

Punchestown is one of the elite jumps tracks in Ireland and its autumnal juvenile hurdles have a fine roll call over the years including the likes of Espoir d'Allen, Aspire Tower and Mitchouka. The race back on the eighth was something of an anomaly for the venue as while the course stages maiden hurdles fairly regularly, it has been almost sixteen years since it hosted any juvenile in the month of September. It was a well contested affair for the time of year as the line-up contained the highest rated flat horse seen thus far this season along with three other winners from that sphere. There was also placed hurdling form, representatives from three top yards, and a pair of well related newcomers. The race was ran at a solid tempo and the winning time was quicker than both maiden hurdles and one of the bumpers on the card.

Duffle Coat was making his racecourse debut and while he was naturally green, he still travelled and jumped like a seasoned professional. After settling in the rear for much of the race, he effortlessly progressed to the front rank on the approach to the straight. Taking the widest route on the final turn, he needed only hands and heels encouragement to lead before the last and he won going away from the field. He provided his sire with his first winning juvenile although his dosage index is considerably lower than those of his paternal siblings. There were stronger clues on the damline as Duffle Coat is a half-brother to the highly talented but ill-fated Starchitect along with winning hurdler Redemption Song. His granddam was a half-sister to the useful Rio De Janeiro as well as the dam of Royal Bond runner up triplicate. Duffle Coat was a big drifter in the market beforehand but he could hardly have made a more favourable impression first time out. The bare form is some way off pattern class but it would still be as good as anything seen so far this year and with improvement for the experience almost guaranteed, it would be no surprise to see him compete with merit in good races. 127

Crassus represented a Noel Meade yard with typically does very well in this sphere. While he has yet to send out a winning juvenile this season, three of his four runners have ran with credit and Crassus did the same here. His recent flat form has not matched the best of his two-year-old efforts but this outing would mark a new career high. Finishing best of those who raced prominently, Crassus jumped and travelled well for the most part and was comfortably on top of all bar one of his rivals. He is not especially bred for a jumps career, nor is he an obvious type for the better races but he ran to a fair standard first time and should be very competitive at this kind of level. 117

Scholastic has won three races on the flat at distances up to twelve furlongs but she made an alarming spectacle of herself as a loose horse on her jumps debut at Down Royal. She made an almighty blunder at the first flight here but while she lacked fluency at a few of her other jumps, she put in a more respectable round overall. Her official flat figure of 70 probably represents the ceiling of her ability but she has enough scope to reach a similar level over hurdles. 103

Sweet Sixteen outran her 66/1 odds when third in an attritional contest on her hurdles debut at Tipperary and put up another creditable performance here. Her jumping was sound and after being hampered half way, she stayed on well without threatening the leaders. Her form is no better than average at this juncture but she has shown promise and when she encounters softer ground as she matures then she can improve further on these efforts. 102

Yulong Voice was last of three finishers in an eventful Down Royal contest on his hurdles debut but that was not a run without promise and he at least maintained that level here. Apart from getting close to the last, his jumping was fine and while he may struggle to be competitive in open company, he should have a future in handicaps. 106

Poets Touch was rather unfairly maligned as a dodgy character when his being carried out on his second outing was erroneously recorded as a refusal. There appeared to be nothing wrong with his attitude on this occasion and apart from steadying into the fifth, put in a perfectly respectable round of jumping here. He had yet to be asked any serious questions when still in contention at Down Royal but was beaten on merit on this occasion and is probably quite limited. There are races where he can be competitive but perhaps not at this level. 97

Bigz Belief has shown nothing better than modest form in nine runs on the flat and his jumping was not the most fluent on his hurdles debut. He raced prominently however and was not headed until just before the home turn so there were hints of promise. This matches the best of his flat form and there is potential for improvement although he would still be some way off threatening the judge in this class of race. 96

At War is a half-brother to the good handicapper Baltimore Rock and his best flat form entitles him to be competitive at this level. However, he has been out of sorts recently and similar comments apply to the form of his yard. Nevertheless, while he was comprehensively beaten in the end, he did jump well here and if his yard can regain the winning thread then he is capable of leaving this form behind. 81

Estepona Sun is the highest rated flat horse to have ran in juvenile hurdles this season and was being prepared by Ger Lyons for a jumps career before he was bought out of a Leopardstown claimer for €25,000. However, he completely lacked fluency on his hurdles debut and almost fell after getting in way too close to the fourth. He is obviously capable of better but there was little encouragement to be drawn from his first outing over hurdles. 65

Sister Eliza had run creditably on her first two starts over hurdles but while she jumped well enough in the front ranks, she dropped away very quickly with plenty of the race still to be run. She was was below her best here and she may benefit from freshening up. Particularly as all of her seven career starts have occurred since the end of June and she was on the ground for a while after being brought down on her previous outing. 49

A Mere Bagatelle showed very little on the flat in three starts on the flat as a two-year-old and while there was a modicum of promise on his hurdles debut at Roscommon, he has regressed on his two subsequent starts. There was initially an attempt to race prominently but a blunder at the second along with his slow jumping dragged him to the rear of the field. 48

Cardinal Rule was winless in eight starts on the flat but he came into this race on the back of a career best fourth in a fourteen furlong Killarney handicap on heavy ground. Although his stable is not renowned for its juvenile hurdlers, Cardinal Rule was the subject of significant market support which saw him backed from 16/1 to 9/2. However, his chances were effectively ended by a pair of decidedly reluctant jumps at the first two flights and while his jumping did improve from thereon, he never regained his position and ultimately finished tailed off. Better was clearly expected and his stamina for the game is no concern but there have to be doubts regarding his aptitude. 53

Dawn Over Owning started the race as favourite and his win over a mile and six in a Killarney handicap accounted for any stamina concerns brought by his precocious sire. However, while his jumping was largely fine, he never looked like landing a blow and was eased after dropping away three flights from home. A gelding operation might help him move on from this effort but he has plenty to prove on this evidence. 52

FONTWELL

And so that every juvenile hurdler gets a review, even in handicaps, here is one for Historic Heart's run at Fontwell.

Historic Heart came into the race on the back of a maiden victory in a Sedgefield juvenile sixteen days earlier. The form of that race was subsequently boosted when runner up Talking About You ran out an emphatic winner at Fontwell. What was noticeable here was the size difference between himself and his older rivals which suggested that every one of his eighteen pounds WFA allowance was justified. Historic Heart was bumped after the first but he subsequently enjoyed a trouble free passage and while his jumping did not feature the efficiency of a champion hurdler, it was perfectly acceptable for the level at which he is competing. Just as he had done at Sedgefield, he wandered around in the home straight and got in close to the last two as a result. Nevertheless, he plugged on well enough to finish seven and a half lengths fourth and was eleven lengths clear of the remainder. He ran off a mark of 110 which is three pounds higher than what I gave him for his Sedgefield win. All things considered, he probably ran right up to that mark and though the allowances will become less generous as he matures physically, he has the potential to improve further if he matures mentally. 107

[Kotkijet]

Juvenile hurdling returns to the UK at Plumpton and while the field is not of an obvioulsly high standard, it does feature a couple interesting recruits. Since the 2009/10 season, there have been 54 winning juveniles at the East Sussex venue and this particular contest has been held every year. The average winning DI is 1.19 median, 1.47 mean which increases to 1.45 and 1.69 when this race is taken in isolation. The latter figures are actually higher than that of the average runner whose figures are 1.40 and 1.57. However, all of these races were ran over a distance two furlongs shorter than Sunday's scheduled contest which may significantly alter the complexion and stamina demands. A more tangible statistic is that the average seasonal best RPR for this race's winners is 110 median and 108.18 mean which indicates that this contest does not typically take a great deal of winning. Indeed, City Dreamer and Alfraamsey are the only winners since 2009 whose seasonal RPRs would exceed 120. Sunday's contest features no previous hurdles winners but there is some placed form available and there are also two winners from the flat. The most interesting runner however is one making his racecourse debut.

Bourbali bg Colin Tizzard Unraced
Sinndar (Saint Des Saints){1-b}(1.18) 2/1 Tamarinbleu 1st Clarence House Chase (G1), Ascot 2008
Between the start of the 2011/12 season and Merry Poppin's win at Tipperary, 8 of 429 juvenile hurdlers won on their racecourse debuts. Since then Duffle Coat added to that tally at Punchestown and when figures going back to the 2008/09 season are included, the strike rate becomes 13 winners from 629 debutants. The stability of these figures emphasise the challenges faced by hurdling newcomers who lack racing experience. Nevertheless, Bourbali's profile is about as strong as it gets for juvenile hurdling. He reprepresents the penultimate crop of his stallion Sinndar whose record as a sire of juveniles is exceptional. As well as producing top class types such as Hargam, Mourad and Diakali over the years, his record across the ranks is of the highest standard. Of the sixty-nine stallions with at least twenty-five juvenile hurdlers since 2008/09, Sinndar leads the way with his winners to runners ratio of 43.75% and his overall strike rate of 21.19%. Only Authorized heads him for improvement rates and his sole superior in terms of RPRs exceeding 107 is Saint Des Saints. Bourbali is out of a Saint Des Saints mare who has produced a winning hurdler and whose own dam won a handicap at Auteil. She is also a half sister to Tamarindor who won his first two outings in juvenile hurdles at Pau along with Tamarinbleu who make a winning racecourse debut in an Ascot juvenile hurdle ahead of a top class career. Trainer Colin Tizzard is more famous for his staying chasers than his juvenile hurdlers and has only sent out ten of the latter since 2008/09. Nevertheless, half of them, including the useful Third Intention and Padleyourowncanoe, have been winners and he also picked up a handicap hurdle at this venue with one of the two he has sent to Plumpton. It should be reiterated that newcomers do not have a strong record in juvenile hurdles but the strength of Bourbali's profile warrants him considerable respect in this type of company.

Brown Eyed Girl bf Sheena West f3-0-0 (51) 46
Sixties Icon (Fraam){4-k}(0.67) .5 Brilliant Barca 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Warwick 2011
Brown Eyed Girl ran three times on the all-weather for Mick Channon between November and March over distances of seven furlongs and a mile. In these contests, she beat just three of her thirty-six rivals home and was beaten a combined forty-six lengths. Her attitide left much to be desired as she was given to running freely and hanging to her right. Racecourse evidence gives her profile an unfavourable appearance but her breeding and connections offer encouragement. Sixties Icon came into this season with a respectable record of six winners from thirty-one runners and his stock has since increased with both Hiconic and Talking About You winning in this sphere. He also won this particular contest two years ago with another Sheena West trained horse. Sheena West has had five juvenile winners at Plumpton since 2009 and her record in this particular contest is three winners, including the last two renewals, a second, a third and a faller. Incidentally, her winner in 2011 was by Brown Eyed Girl's damsire Fraam. Brown Eyed Girl is a full-sister to multiple winner Sixtie's Idol and a half-sister to another stablemate Brilliant Barca who won as a three-year-old. Her flat form leaves her with plenty to find and even if she improves significantly, she is unlikely to be an above average sort. Nevertheless, she was the chosen one of two entries for a stable who like to target this race, the yard has an impressive improvement rate of 73.33% between codes and there is plenty in her pedigree to suggest that she has a more promising future over hurdles.

Calidus Mirabilis bg Amy Murphy f12-2-1 (68) 75 j3-0-1 (109) 108 109
Hot Streak (Oasis Dream){4-j}(1.50) 4/5 La Limagne 1st Prix Tanerko HcH, Auteuil 2018
Amy Murphy began this season without a winning juvenile hurdler from eight runners but a rich vein of form post-lockdown saw her win with two of her three representatives. She bought a couple of new recruits from the Joseph O'Brien yard at Tattersalls' August sale, one of them being Calidus Mirabilis who changed hands for 17,000 guineas. Twice a winner on the flat, his official rating has dropped to 68 but it is still the highest in this field. With three starts over jumps, he is also the most experienced hurdler and his first two starts at Roscommon and Ballinrobe provide the strongest hurdling form on offer. He was a beaten odds-on favourite on his most recent start at Tipperary but that was an attritional affair which would have been unsuitable regardless of the minor injury he collected along the way. His jumping is fine when he is not tired and the application of a tongue tie may help negate the stamina concerns that his efforts have provoked. If Sunday's race was to be contested at the minumum trip then the case for Calidus Mirabilis would have been a very strong one as an easy trip on good ground would be ideal. However, although Amy Murphy is still sending out winners, the additional two furlongs does temper confidence.

Full Secret bf Neil King f6-0-0 (51) 56
Footstepsinthesand (Green Desert){3-g}(1.60) 3/1 Davoski 2nd Castleford Chase (G2, 144), Wetherby 2000
Full Secret ran five times on the all-weather for Richard Fahey at trips up to a mile and was initially given a rating of 58. However, after joining Neil King for 6,300 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale, that mark dropped to 51 when she was well beaten in a ten furlong Bath handicap on her turf debut. Her new trainer does have a strong record with juvenile hurdlers however with a 43.33% winners to runners rate and a 64% improvement rate. He also enjoys success with his value purchases as of the seven horses who cost less than Full Secret at public auction, four would win during their juvenile campaigns. It is worth noting however that the same can not be said of those sold out of the Fahey yard at similar prices as none of the four qualifiers collected a race between them. Nevertheless, Neil King has also sent out two runners up and a fourth in this particular contest including Witch From Rome who was a 50/1 second in 2014. Footstepsinthesand has above average figures in the sphere and while there are no jumpers in the immediate pedigree, Full Secret's granddam was a half-sister to decent chaser Davoski. It is reasonable to imagine Full Secret at least matching the best of her flat form over hurdles and while she still has plenty to find, she could be the type to outrun large odds.

Lightning Bug bf Suzy Smith f6-0-0 (37) 45
Starspangledbanner (Dansili){2-e}(0.71) 3/1 Satchmo 3rd Bader Preis Hurdle (Listed), Baden-Baden
Not seen on a racecourse since last October, Lightning Bug had six races as a two-year-old from six furlongs to an extended mile. During these starts, she neither finished better than seventh nor closer than ten lengths to the winner. Her flat rating of 37 is warranted and there is little on paper to suggest that she can find the dramatic and neccesary improvement required to figure here. Her sire is without any jumps winners and there is little of note on the damline in the sphere. Trainer Suzy Smith has had the one juvenile winner from six horses and everything else in the field has a stronger profile.

Peat Moss bg N Hawke f5-0-1 (47) 50 j2-0-1 (-) 91 84
Fracas (Dalakhani){14-c}(0.71) 4/1 Direct Lady 3rd Festival Hurdle, Leopardstown 1992
Rated 50 on the flat after three fruitless runs, Peat Moss made a somewhat promising debut over hurdles at Newton Abbot in the season's curtain raiser back in June, jumping well enough and shaping as though a sterner test would suit. He regressed on his second jumps outing at Cartmel however where he paid the price for trying to keep up with a fast and fluent front-runner. Since then, he was beaten twenty-four lengths in a lowly Southwell handicap on the flat over two miles where he was finished a long way from home. He may still have a future in a low enough grade but this contest looks beyond him.

Prince Percy bg G Moore f7-0-1 (57) 65 j1-0-1 (-) 96 101
Sir Percy (High Chaparral){1-u} 3/1 Walk In The Park 5th Listed Hurdle, Auteuil 2007 - NH Sire
Prince Percy made a hurdling debut at Market Rasen back in July and though he could not match subsequent winner Soldier On Parade, he did finish eleven lengths clear of the remainder. His yard has a fine record in juvenile hurdles as it does in this race with the 2010, 2013 and 2016 renewals going to Gary Moore. Prince Percy's flat form is just about good enough to be competitive in this field but there are a couple of notes of caution. He has been supported in the market on numerous occasions without winning and while he is generally a consistent sort, he was well below form on his latest outing in a Lingfield handicap. There are encouraging elements to his profile including his successful sirelines and the yard recently sent out Big Jimbo to post a career best at Fontwell. However, that encouragement is mitigated by questions pertaining to his current form and attitude.

Treaty Of Dingle bf Sean Curran f14-2-5 (67) 70
Roderic O'Connor (Sakhee's Secret){6-b}(0.60) 4/1 Surrey Dancer 138 2nd Fighting Fifth Hurdle (G2), Newcastle 1994
Behind Calidus Mirabilis, Treaty Of Dingle is the most experienced horse in the field, has the most wins and boasts the highest flat rating. He is also another having his first run for a new yard after a public sale although his transfer came after winning a Lingfield claimer just over three weeks ago where he left the Hughie Morrison yard for £12,000. It is not unheard of for horses bought out of UK races to go on to better things. Maoi Chinn Tire won the Wensleydale Hurdle after being claimed for £7,000 and Orsippus won the Anniversary Hurdle at Aintree after being claimed out of a seller for just £4,500. Nevertheless, the general record of those who emerge from claimers and sellers is below average and less than a quarter will improve for the switch between codes. Expats of Hughie Morrison's yard do win their fair share in juvenile hurdles although neither of those who left through sellers won races nor did Sean Curran's sole purchase by that method. Sean Curran has not enjoyed the best of success in the division over the years but he did saddle Talking About You to win at Fontwell recently which incidentally, was his first winner in the sphere since Prince Pippin won at Plumpton in November 2009. Treaty Of Dingle was as entitled to win his claimer as the odds of 4/9 suggested but he was keen during the race and made hard work of the task. He is a consistent type though as he was runner up on three consecutive outings beforehand. Roderic O'Connor has a fair record of two winners from nine but his overall strike rate of 10.34% is poor as is the 16.67% improvement rate. Though the likes of French Holly and Deano's Beeno do appear on Treaty Of Dingle's damline at 4/2. He is capable of performing at this level and his prospects can not be readily dismissed but his profile is still rather patchy in the context of this field.

Strong prospects
1. Bourbali
Reasonable prospects
2. Calidus Mirabilis
3. Prince Percy
Feasible prospects
4. Treaty Of Dingle
5. Brown Eyed Girl
6. Full Secret
Moderate prospects
7. Peat Moss
Negligible prospects
8. Lightning Bug

[Kotkijet]

Listowel hosts its annual juvenile hurdle on Sunday and although only one race of its type per year is staged at the Kerry venue, it is typically a decent affair. Previous winners include Guitar Pete, Chief Justice, Rashaan and Al Eile while the likes of A Wave Of The Sea and Gimli's Rock have met defeat in this contest. The average winner goes on to achieve a seasonal RPR of 123 and that standard has already been met by the two Gordon Elliott runners. While that pair look a class apart from their rivals, there is still a hurdles winner, a hurdles placed flat winner and a Jessica Harrington newcomer to keep them honest. Barring accidents or a muddling place, whoever wins this race will earn the right to compete in this season's better races. Listowel is a very sharp track and the average winning DIs of 1.67 median and 1.78 mean are all the more remarkable when compared to the DIs of the average participant which stand at 1.40 and 1.68. The expected good ground should place further emphasis on speed over endurance. Notwithstanding, while Listowel does not place a great demand on stamina, its completion rate of 82.5% is one of the lowest in both the UK and Ireland which makes assured jumping all the more essential.

At War bg Thomas Cooper f12-0-3 (75) 78 j1-0-0 (-) 79 81
War Command (Definite Article){15-a}(3.00) .5 Baltimore Rock 1st Imperial Cup (G3,125), Sandown 2014
A half-brother to Baltimore Rock with a triple hurdle winning third dam, there is reason enough to imagine At War being a proficient hurdler. This was demonstrated when he put in a decent round on his jumps debut at Punchestown. However, while the best of his flat form entitled him to be more competitive in that race, he was well beaten in the end. He has not been at his best recently and it will be a huge ask for him to be competitive in this company. Nevertheless, he has shown himself a decent jumper and the course should suit him so it is not unreasonable to expect some improvement.

Duffle Coat grg Gordon Elliott j1-1-0 (-) 124 127
Alhebayeb (Sadler's Wells){4-k}(1.40) .5 Starchitect 2nd Summit Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2014
Duffle Coat was friendless in the market prior to his debut at Punchestown and his sire from the hitherto uninspiring Dark Angel line had yet to produce a jumps winner. However, this half-brother to Starchitect made a most pleasing start to his career as he belied his greenness to travel and jump with ease before running out an emphatic winner. That he will likely to improve for the experience makes him an exciting prospect and while stablemate Longclaw is the other leading Irish juvenile seen thus far, Duffle Coat receives four pounds and retains the services of Keith Donoghue. It is usually bad practice to take a solitary performance as a gospel indicator of a horse's ability or potential. However, unproven stallion aside it is difficult to find reasonable holes in his profile. Gordon Elliott has won this particular race only once from six runners but with three winners and two seconds yesterday alone, the yard is in flying form. Unless there is a dramatic and unexpected improvement from those not trained at Cullentra House, the Gordon Elliott pair appear to have the race between themselves and Duffle Coat would have the most scope of the two.

Finsceal Blue bg W J Austin Unraced
Finsceal Fior (Azamour){3-l}(1.09) 6/5 Sadler's Risk 1st Star Chase (G3), Punchestown 2016
One of two racecourse debutants set to line up, Finsceal Blue represents a Willie Austin yard that has sent out just the one juvenile hurdler since 2008/09. His granddam is a half-sister to the top class American horse Lemon Drop Kid and while one must go a long way back to find any notable jumpers on the damline, his sire Finsceal Fior has a decent record with juvenile hurdles from limited opportunities. Three of his five offspring have won races in the sphere including the dual winner Sacchoandvanzetti. Azamour was a capable sire in the division although his strike rate of 3.85% as a damsire is less encouraging. There are hints of promise in Finsceal Blue's profile but he is being set a huge task on his debut.

Little Brother bg J A Nash f10-1-2 (55) 57 j2-1-0 (-) 107 111
Gale Force Ten (Thunder Gulch){5-h}(3.00) 4/1 Salamah 3rd Kennel Gate Novices Hurdle, Ascot 1998
A winner of a Sligo handicap on the flat in early July, Little Brother doubled his career tally in a Ballinrobe maiden on his second outing over hurdles. He was well backed prior to his debut where he finished thirty-five lengths behind Longclaw but he redeemed himself at Ballinrobe and reversed Roscommon form with Calidus Mirabilis. That did not look like a strong contest beforehand however and apart from Sister Eliza running a good race prior to being brought down at Down Royal, the subsequent form has not held up. Furthermore, while that Ballinrobe win was a career best effort, he failed to capitalise on what was theoretically a lenient flat mark in a soft ground Down Royal handicap just over a fortnight ago. Notwithstanding, the quicker ground along with his prominent racing style will suit him much better on Sunday so a ressurgence is not out of the question. He does however still have plenty of ground to make up on the principles.

Longclaw bg Gordon Elliott f6-0-2 (82) 83 j2-2-0 (-) 125 125
Kitten's Joy (Dixie Union){3-d}(2.38) American family
Longclaw has done little wrong in winning both of his races over hurdles and the form of his runs in conjunction with the manner of his victories make for a solid profile. Each of the first seven from his Roscommon win that have ran again have either won or been placed and while he was left with little to beat at Down Royal, two horses have since been placed and the well beaten third at least matched that effort last time at Punchestown. Prior to Duffle Coat's debut, Longclaw was unquestionably the best juvenile hurdler seen this season and with the benefit of experience along with potential improvement following a gelding operation, his claims here can not be readily crabbed. Nevertheless, he has shown vulnerabilities in his inconsistency on the flat and while it is only four pounds, he still has to concede weight to a completely unexposed rival who was even more striking in his jumping and performance. His prospects are clearly the best of the remainder and would take all the beating in the absence of Duffle Coat.

Made In Pimlico chg Brendan W Duke f7-0-0 (42) 47 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Dragon Pulse (Giant's Causeway){8-k}(1.25) no jumps relatives
Made In Pimlico's official flat rating of 42 was earned in seven starts as a two year old and gave him little hope ahead of his hurdling debut at Tipperary last month. In the event, he was pulled up at half way. A case can not be made for him in this company.

Scholastic bf Joseph Patrick O'Brien f12-3-0 (70) 66 j2-0-1 (-) 101 103
Zoffany (Sadler's Wells){5-b}(0.63) 1/1 Severus Alexander 4th Handicap Hurdle (102), Leopardstown 2020
A triple winner on the flat, the loose Scholastic managed to take out three of her rivals in what looked like an act of vengeance for having her rider unshipped in the early stages of her hurdling debut at Down Royal. She began her next hurdles start with a huge error but while she was not entirely fluent at the other hurdles, her jumping did settle down and she was able to finish a thirteen length third to Duffle Coat. Joseph O'Brien won this race in 2017 with Grey Waters although his A Wave Of The Sea was beaten in last year's renewal. Scholastic is capable of winning over hurdles but she would need to surpass anything she achieved on the flat to win here and her lack of fluency will take a toll around Listowel.

Social Distancing bf Neill McCluskey Unraced
Leading Light (Alflora){13-c}(0.68) .5 Moores Road 1st Handicap Hurdle (111), Cork 2017
The second of the racecourse debutants, the topically named Social Distancing is bred much more like a jumper than a flat horse. As well as being a half-sister to winning hurdler Moores Road, she is out of a half-sister to Persian Gates, her granddam is a full-sister to the dual Tommy Whittle winner Bobby Grant and her third dam is a sibling of Arkle chase runner up Boreen Daw. Leading Light failed to win with any of his first crop juveniles last term but the majority of his progeny are store horses and similar sentiments apply to those produced by Alflora's mares. There is some talent in the pedigree but it is generally late developing and it would be a big upset if Social Distancing was either sharp or forward enough to win on her debut.

Waterville Lady bf Mrs John Harrington f12-0-2 (65) 67
Starspangledbanner (Marju){1-k}(0.71) 2/1 Gladiator King 1st Maiden Hurdle, Leopardstown 2015
Since 2008/09, Jessica Harrington has sent ten runners to compete in this race with three winners, a second and two thirds. She is represented here by Waterville Lady who will be making her hurdling debut. A maiden after twelve starts, she has twice reached the frame, most recently when second off 65 in a nine furlong Tipperary handicap back in June. Since then however, she has finished nearer last than first in a pair of good ground handicaps while being beaten by a total of over forty lengths. Starspangledbanner has yet to produce a jumps winner and Marju's record as both a sire and damside is a below average one in the sphere. Nevertheless, there are some capable jumpers on the damline including Gladiator King (2/1), Rock Relief (2/1) and Cardinal Walter (3/2). Jessica Harrington has a good record in the sphere and her winners to runners percentage of 26.67% increases to 30.95% with those that she trained herself on the flat. Furthermore, two of her previous winners in this race had shown less on the flat than Waterville Lady although both of them had shaped with promise on previous hurdles outings. The case is predominantly supported by the trainer's record in this race but while it is interesting that Waterville Lady is the chosen representative, the remainder of her profile is a comparatively weak one.

Strong prospects
1. Duffle Coat
Reasonable prospects
2. Longclaw
Feasible prospects
3. Little Brother
4. Scholastic
Moderate prospects
5. At War
6. Waterville Lady
Negligible prospects
7. Finsceal Blue
8. Social Distancing
9. Made In Pimlico

[BigChaang]

Excellent , Excellent , Excellent Kotkijet !! , I really like your'e previews.
Gone for Prince percy myself at Plumpton today. .

[Kotkijet]

Duffle Coat has been taken out of today's Listowel contest which certainly depletes the race of much of its interest. I did say beforehand that whoever wins the race would take a step up in class by default although given Longclaw's superiority, a victory on his part might not be especially revelatory. The following amendment to the prospects list might end up making me look very silly. Nevertheless, with at least ten pounds in hand over his rivals along with potentially further improvement for being gelded, Longclaw's superior jumping and proven ability in the conditions make his prospects outstanding.

Outstanding prospects
1. Longclaw
Reasonable prospects
2. Little Brother
3. Scholastic
Feasible/moderate prospects
4. At War
5. Waterville Lady
Negligible prospects
6. Finsceal Blue
7. Social Distancing
8. Made In Pimlico

Excellent , Excellent , Excellent Kotkijet !! , I really like your'e previews.
Gone for Prince percy myself at Plumpton today. .

Nice one BigChaang! I was at a slight risk of getting burnt out before the break but writing these reminded me of how much pleasure I get from doing them. If others enjoy reading them or find them in any way useful or informative then the satisfaction is exacerbated.

My thoughts on the race have already been recorded and although Bourbali has been rather weak in the market, I am still content that the preview is the best reflection of my opinion. I have noticed that Prince Percy has been the subject of support this morning but while this did precede an improved showing from Big Jimbo at Fontwell, Prince Percy has been backed in the past without winning. I will not be betting on this or any race in this thread as it is not a facet of the sport in which I indulge. As such, I will be quite pleased for my opinion to be erroneous if it means a fat jockey is a beneficiary!

[nortonscoin200]

Great write-ups Kotkijet - very much enjoy reading them. Can't wait to see you untangling the Triumph form this winter!!