Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

[Lobos]

No need for me to try and pick the Triumph and Fred Winter winners in March......I'm just following Kot. Superb assessments and amazing results so far. Keep it up !

[Kotkijet]

Ireland's second juvenile hurdle of the season takes place this coming Monday at Ballinrobe and the yards of Gordon Elliott and Noel Meade, who sent out the winner and runner up in last week's curtain raiser, are represented by another pair of newcomers. The fourth, sixth and ninth are also set to make a swift return to the fray. While the decent juvenile Clarcam started his hurdling career at this venue, Ballinrobe is not renowned for being the launchpad of future stars and Monday's race probably won't take too much winning. There is not a great deal of data from which to draw dosage information but the course's characteristics and average times, it would be one of the speedier racecourses and its sharp bends and downhill finish would not lend itself to big chasing types.

A Mere Bagatelle bg John Joseph Hanlon f3-0-0 (56) 50 j1-0-0 (-) 89
Born To Sea (Fasliyev){11}(4.00) 3/1 Kerawi 1st Christmas Hurdle (G1), Kempton 1997
A Mere Bagatelle is one of four in this field with hurdles experience which he gained when beaten by forty lengths last week at Roscommon. He was 66/1 that day which on the basis of moderate flat form and a lengthy lay off seemed fair enough and the bare result also justifies the price. Nevertheless, he led for much of the way jumping well in the process and was entitled to fade given his absence. It would be peculiar to suggest that a horse whose is flattered by a flat rating of 56 comes here with a great chance but his case would not be a miserable one. Born To Sea is a good sire of juveniles, the cross with Fasliyev has created triple juvenile winner Malangen and trainer Shark Hanlon has won prize money with lower rated horses and enjoyed a double at Wexford earlier this week. There are still lingering stamina doubts but Ballinrobe is not a track which would exacerbate such fears. A Mere Bagatelle has already shown that he can jump and will strip fitter for last week's effort and while he would not have a favourite's chance, he should not be 66/1 again.

Bass Reeves bg Noel Meade f6-0-0 (49) 59
Es Que Love (Diesis){11-a}(1.00) 5/1 Old Vic leading National Hunt stallion
One of two Noel Meade newcomers, Bass Reeves is the lower rated of the two with an official rating of 49. He started off with a mark of 58 which was earned when he finished last of eight in a Leopardstown maiden last July and he followed that by finishing well beaten in a pair of Curragh nurseries in the Autumn. His seasonal reappearance came in June when beating only two of seventeen home in a Leopardstown handicap and he has not been seen since. Es Que Love has only had the one juvenile this far (a maiden from four starts) and the Clodovil line has not really been tested although Diesis has a reasonable level success as a damsire. Noel Meade is always worthy of respect in the division and has won juveniles with lesser rated hometrained horses than Bass Reeves. However, the yard is not going through its brightest spell at the moment and the lack of jumping relatives on the damline offers no respite to this one's sallow profile.

Belgoprince chg A J Martin f10-1-2 (70.4) 48 j1-0-0 (-) 79
Prince Gibraltar (Bering){9-f}(0.82) 2/1 Golden Marvel jumps winner in US
He is under the care of a tremendously experienced trainer in this sphere, brings the best flat form into the race, represents an interesting new stallion and has classy french juveniles on his Damline, yet Belgoprince's return to the track is not eagerly anticipated. Drifting from 12/1 in the morning to 25/1 at the off, Belgoprince missed the start, made little effort to join the pack and jumped as though he was having his first ever schooling session. He has the profile, attributes and build to be useful at this game but most people in the general public can only guess as to when that could be. The track may well be too sharp in any case and the yard is not currently among the winners so it might be inferred that he won't be winning on Monday. Nevertheless, if there is an avalanche of money for the horses then his prospects increase exponentially.

Blue Sky Thinker bg Ross O'Sullivan f6-0-0 (40) 44
French Navy (Giant's Causeway) {1-a}(1.60) no jumps relatives
Finishing last or thereabouts in a trio of maidens last autumn, Blue Sky Thinker picked up where he left off, finishing close to the rear in three handicaps this summer. His rating of 40 is not an unfair one and his usual hold up tactics and lack of trackcraft will not suit him here. Ross O'Sullivan can train winning juveniles but is not especially prolific. French Navy is a first season juvenile sire but he is a half brother to decent hurdler Sea Lord and the Shamardal line is not bad for this division. Nevertheless he is still unproven and it would be quite the statement if his career as a jumps sire got off to a winning start.

Calidus Mirabilis bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f12-2-1 (68) 75 j1-0-0 (-) 108
Hot Streak (Oasis Dream){4-j}(1.50) 4/5 La Limagne 1st Prix Tanerko Handicap Hurdle, Auteuil 2018
Calidus Mirabilis brings the best jumps form into the race in the shape of his eighteen length fourth at Roscommon last week and his flat form is also near enough the best on offer in his field. He is respected almost by default for representing the Joseph O'Brien yard which while above average by class and success metrics, does not have an outstanding record given its ammunition. Calidus Mirabilis's jumping at Roscommon lacked fluency but not irredeemably so and can improve on the bare form at such a venue which does not demand a great deal of stamina. It is most unlikely that he will be a contender for any of the better races later on in the season but in a race which lacks strength in depth, he would be one of the likelier types.

Cobb And Co grg M C Grassick f12-0-3 (64) 66
Camacho (Verglas){8-h}(1.12) 2/1 Whiskey Sour 3rd/4th County Hurdle, Cheltenham 2018/19
Initially a stablemate of Calidus Mirabilis, Cobb And Co left Owning Hill after four defeats in races no longer than six furlongs. His initial rating of 75 was stiff but after five more runs for his new yard had fallen by eleven pounds by the end of the year. Cobb And Co's return came in a seventeen runner Naas handicap over a mile where he made every yard up to final furlong before finishing a three and a half length second to a horse who was not disgraced in three subsequent handicaps off ten pounds higher. While Cobb And Co looked as though he would be swallowed by the field turning for home, he did not give up his lead without a fight and had enough to keep the rest of the field, including subsequent winners, at bay. Using the same forcing tactics next time at Fairyhouse over an extra two furlongs, he was once again headed within the final furlong by an easy winner who came out of nowhere but was again able to fend off the rest. The form of that race has not worked out particularly well and he was beaten into fifth at Galway last time out when stepping back down to a mile and half a furlong. The pace he set was a strong one, it was not until late on that he was headed and the impression was that he was outpaced at the finish rather than being particularly tired. Camacho has just fourteen juvenile hurdlers to his name but they include three useful winners in Mr Adjudicator, El Beau and Cafe Con Leche and the dam is a half sister to the very talented Whiskey Sour (Ambobo also appears at 5/4). If there is to be a concern, it is that the stable has not saddled a winner for over a year and is predominantly a flat yard although it does historically have a fair strike rate with its hurdlers. The pedigree makes plenty of appeal and while overall standard of form is sound in the context of this race, the attitude he demonstrated in those races was most striking and his ability to front run could serve him very well at this venue.

Little Brother bg J A Nash f9-1-2 (57) 57 j1-0-0 (-) 87
Gale Force Ten (Thunder Gulch){5-h}(3.00) 4/1 Salamah 3rd Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle, Ascot 1998
Little Brother finished second best of those who ran at Roscommon last week although he was thirty-five lengths behind the winner and seventeen behind Calidus Mirabilis. He was backed into second favouritism from the 16/1 available in the morning but while he finished ahead of the eventual favourite and runner up in a handicap on the flat (and worse off at the weights), he did not give the impression that he had schooled particularly well or had a newly upgraded engine. It was not a bad debut outing but there was nothing to justify the gamble or, standard improvement notwithstanding, any particular excitement about his future prospects.

Money Mike bg D Fitzgerald Unraced
French Navy (Ivan Denisovich){1-a}(2.67) 3/2 Oscar Magic 1st Novice Handicap Hurdle (122), Haydock 2013
Another son of French Navy, the unraced Money Mike is from a yard with no winning juveniles from five horses since 2011/12 and has an overall strike rate of 5% in hurdles. Ivan Denisovich's mares have not yet had competitors in juvenile hurdles but he did sire a couple of winners himself and Money Mike is distantly related to the likes of Black Jack Ketchum, Apache Jack and Fota Island (all 6/5). Overall, this is not a compelling profile for a racecourse debutant.

Perry Owens bg Noel Meade f5-0-1 (70) 74
Free Eagle (Time For A Change){9}(1.53) 2/1 Parker Ridge 1st Claiming Chase, Cagnes Sur Mer 2019
The other Noel Meade runner, Perry Owens is rated a stone and a half superior to his stablemate although one would have to go back thirteen months to see any justification for such a rating. That career highlight came last July when he was third behind an 18/1 winning debutant in a seven furlong Roscommon maiden that has produced not one subsequent winner. In his next race, he was only three lengths behind a Cormorant that would eventually improve to win a Group 3 but taken as a whole, there is very little to get excited about during his two year old campaign. Following a gelding operation, Perry Owens returned in the middle of June in a fourteen runner ten furlong Leopardstown handicap but was always towards the rear when beating just the two home. Free Eagle is another sire having his first crop over hurdles but is an interesting prospect in the sphere being a son of High Chaparral from the family of Archive Footage, Unaccompanied and Plinth so his being unproven is not yet a negative. Furthermore, Perry Owens has good jumpers on his damline including Pythagore (3/3), Special Envoy (4/3), and Zapato (2/3) so on breeding, Perry Owens has a healthy pedigree. However, while it should be reiterated that Noel Meade commands respect in this division, both the form of his yard and of this charge are currently lacking.

Thekeyisnottopanic bg C W J Farrell f3-0-0 (55) 49
Rock Of Gibraltar (Areion){16-c}(2.43) 3/1 Salden Licht 3rd Aintree Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2011
If carrying an amusing name was a key attribute in horse racing then this one would be among the favourites. However, the object is to get from one place to another quicker than the other horses which is something that Thekeyisnottopanic has struggled with thus far in his three attempts in maiden company this year. There have been good horses finishing a long way ahead of him such as Russian Emperor, Tiger Moth, Dawn Patrol and Amhran Na Bhfiann and Thekeyisnottopanic actually led the first named on his debut at Naas but his rating of 55 is harsh based on what he has produced up to this point. Rock Of Gibraltar is capable of siring juveniles and has a roughly average winners to runners rate but his overall strike rate of 6.77% and improvement rate of just 25% will not be of much use here. There are very good jumpers of German stock on the damline such as Saltas (3/1), Serienschock (3/2) and Sternrubin (4/3) but at this stage, his rivals won't have much reason to panic.

Tommy The Hat chg D Broad f8-0-0 (57) 59
Camacho (Pivotal){4-g}(2.38) .5 Blue Havana 9th Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen 2018
Tommy The Hat is still a maiden after eight starts and has an official rating of just 57 but he has finished within five lengths of the winner on three occasions so is not always out with the washing. None of those races have been beyond a mile but on breeding there is reason to imagine him getting the trip here. Apart from disappointing last time, he is generally consistent but he would still be a fair way behind some of these on form and others have more compelling profiles.

Voice Of Hope brg Andrew Slattery f7-0-0 (63) 72
Poet's Voice (Montjeu){14-c}(0.82) 3/1 Pack The Punch 3rd Maiden Hurdle, Wexford 2015
An unused reserve at Roscommon last week, Voice Of Hope was perhaps more entitled to run than a few of those who faced the starter that day. Voice Of Hope has Sholokhov (4/1) and Soldier Of Fortune (4/2) on his damline and sire Poet's Voice has produced handy juveniles such as Nietzsche and Cracker Factory. Unraced so far this season, he raced seven times last year although the best he managed was a fourth on his debut and his harsh looking initial mark of 74 dropped to 63 in the process. However, given the influence of damsire Montjeu, he can be expected to develop as a three year old and his trainer's few runners in this division have usually improved for the switch in code. Nevertheless, there is still an absence to overcome and his form has to be taken on trust.

Sister Eliza bf Gordon Elliott f4-0-0 (67) 61
Footstepsinthesand (Imperial Dancer){2-f}(0.82) 2/1 Holy Show 6th Maiden Hurdle, Listowel 2009
Gordon Elliott won last week's opener at Roscommon with Longclaw and Sister Eliza is set to be his second entry of the season. However, Longclaw was officially rated over a stone superior to Sister Eliza who has yet to justify her rating on bare form alone. Making her debut in late June this year, her first two outings came in mile maidens at the Curragh where she finished midfield while looking like further would suit. After disappointing on her third run at Limerick, she was an eyecatching third on her handicap debut at Galway over seven furlongs where she made up a tremendous amount of ground in the closing stages to snatch a seven and a quarter length third on the line. Paradoxically, while the official mark of 67 which she competed from at Galway exceeds the sum of what she has actually achieved, there is reason to suspect that she is better than the mark implies. Even if we are to assume that 67 is the ceiling of her capacity, Gordon Elliott has still won with eight of the twenty-nine horses who carried lower flat rating into their juvenile career. Footstepsinthesand has an above average winner to runner rate of 28% and though he does not get especially high class juveniles, that will not be an issue at this level. There is less encouragement on the damline as one has to go back 5/4 to Carilo (3rd in the 2012 Prix Camberceres) to find any useful hurdlers and there is also a concern that she could leave herself with too much to do if retaining her waiting tactics here. Nevertheless, she still warrants plenty of respect in a field lacking strength in depth.

Varna Gold chg Paul John Gilligan f11-0-3 (69) 72
Shooting To Win (Efisio){5-e}(1.67) 3/2 Najaf 2nd Spa Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2010
Varna Gold is down as a reserve but his case were he to line up would be more credible than several of these. Starting his career with Dermot McLoughlin, the first six races saw him compete exclusively at Dundalk where after qualifying for a mark of 73, he would finish within six lengths of the winner before a winter break. After interrupting his break with a midfield placing in a Naas handicap in March, he joined his new yard and ran in four handicaps over distances ranging from an extended mile to an extended mile and a half. His best showing was a rather one paced two and a half length third at Fairyhouse off 69. The form of that race has held up reasonably well but it would be the best of his efforts this year as he has become rather inconsistent. He has some useful horses on his damline such as Najaf (3/2) Decoy (3/2) and Bleu Azur (5/4) and from a sample of fourteen descendents, Efisio is an above average damsire of juvenile hurdlers by all metrics. Shooting To Win has yet to have any juvenile runners and evidence of the sireline's competence in the sphere is sparse before arriving at Fairy King. Varna Gold is not without merit in this type of field and would not be written off if lining up on Monday. He also holds a couple of these rivals on previous form but he is inconsistent and he may be too one paced at this type of track.

Strong prospects
1. Cobb And Co
Reasonable prospects
2. Sister Eliza
3. Calidus Mirabilis
Feasible prospects
4. A Mere Bagatelle
5. Voice Of Hope
6. Perry Owens
7. Varna Gold (R)
Moderate prospects
8. Little Brother
9. Tommy The Hat
Negligible prospects
10. Bass Reeves
11. Belgoprince*
12. Thekeyisnottopanic
13. Blue Sky Thinker
14. Money Mike

No need for me to try and pick the Triumph and Fred Winter winners in March......I'm just following Kot. Superb assessments and amazing results so far. Keep it up !

Much appreciated Lobos. As always, it must be stressed that I am not a tipster

[Kotkijet]

Just a quick reflection on the today's race - a full review will be posted tomorrow at the earliest.

I regularly stress that I am not a tipster and I think today's result was a good example of why!

In this regard, it may be inappropriate and possibly egotistical for me to issue an apology but one would still be in order. There would be little call for contrition for the act of being incorrect but I believe I was rather careless when considering Little Brother. There is little irrational about the result itself and the qualities which contributed to his success - hurdling experience, positive tactics, ability to battle - were attributed to other runners in the analysis. This is not to say that I would have given him strong prospects but his chances certainly could not have been considered moderate.

I maintain that I am not a tipster and that I have no control over whether or not people risk money based on my observations or indeed how these sentient creatures perform on the day. I am however responsible for ensuring that whatever I contribute is done to a satisfactory standard and in this instance, I did not perform my best. To this end, I apologise.

When analysing a field of such a size, oversights can occur - particularly when such an analysis is done in one sitting and posted way in advance. In order to mitigate against such events, future previews will probably be posted rather later than they are currently.

tl:dr;- whoops-a-daisy!

[Kevloaf]

Just don't let it happen again. We've got mortgages to pay and kids to feed.






You don't need to apologise to anyone, including yourself. It's impressive that you hold yourself to such high standards, roll on the next instalment.

[Quevega]

Kotkijet.
You are a gentleman or lady.
And your juvenile pieces are an asset to this forum.
Please continue.

You've got one more chance

[Kotkijet]

Perfectionism can be a double edged sword but it was very much more a chuckling "what happened there?" than a full blown hairdryer treatment in the mirror thing. I got a laugh from your comments in any case though and they appreciated so cheers lads!

Monday's apology looks a lot more dramatic than it felt at the time but I suppose tone is difficult to faithfully convey through words over the internet. It was not so much my being harsh on myself as it was an acknowledgement of incorrect form. I view mistakes and errors as opportunities to develop - itself a positive gift seldom afforded by "success". Sentiments such as "that was negative" or "those actions were negative" are unhelpful and a much better approach is "what went wrong?","did it really go wrong?", "what can be learned from this?" and "how can these lessons be applied going forward". So without further ado, let us drag the corpse from the rubble of this unmitigated disaster and flog it for a bit before firing it into the sun...

First item, the process. Given that the winner had conspicuous attributes mentioned numerous times elsewhere in the thread, let alone the very same review, had been missed completely was not a deliberate oversight but it was certainly careless. The analysis was done in one sitting without breaks and posted without a proof read. This led to lapses in concentration and an absence of quality control. This is perhaps due to an atavistic impulse to develop and project ones ideas before they are influenced or pre-empted by others. To mitigate, the following process should help - research, notes, first draft, break including an unrelated activity, final draft, submission. Furthermore, said atavistic impulse, now acknowledged, can be firmly dismissed on the basis that 1) the degree and extent of independent research warrants an indifference to any premature external influence 2) the work justifies itself and 3) the author is not in competition with any other analyst. In the unlikely event that after the first draft has been written, a facet of information has been revealed by another writer's insight then it ought to be acknowledged and celebrated in the spirit of universal collaboration.

Second item, overestimated horses. Corn On The Cob Horse - front running tactics would have been less effective in field with several prominent runners which is something to be mindful of in the future. Good ground possibly an issue in hindsight - firmer than forecast - maybe leave preview closer to race or revisit in event of altered conditions. A Mere Bagatelle - still needed considerable improvement. Maybe being too clever.

Third item, underestimated horses. Little Brother - ability to race prominently without need to lead, battling qualities, fair jumping on debut with anticipated experience should have been given their due attention beforehand. Too much was read into the missed gamble first time. Gambles are placed by human beings backing their judgement and while they can offer clues, are still fallible and can confuse matters. Too dismissive of stallion and trainer due largely to low sample sizes and below average strike rates. Both of their improvement rates were respectable beforehand. Also dismissive of Gale Force Ten as a stallion on the basis of his sire being Oasis Dream. While it is true that Oasis Dream has a poor overall strike rate as a grandsire, in terms of producing stallions who get winners, Oasis Dream is on 75% for those with ten or more sons which puts him below only Galileo, equal to Danehill Dancer and ahead of every other grandsire including the likes of Montjeu and Linamix. When taking French three-year-old results into account, these horses then surpass him but the rate increases to 80% which puts him on a par with Green Desert and Monsun and ahead of Danehill, Dansisli and Sadler's Wells. Notwithstanding, his winner to runner rates and overall strike rates are still the lowest of the fifteen qualifying grandsires. If one wanted to complicate matters further, it could be noted that Gale Force Ten's damsire Kirkwall was predominantly a national hunt stallion. However, the take-away should be that Oasis Dream stallions have a poor strike rate but that does not paint the entire picture - particularly where his less exposed stallions are concerned. Perry Owens was dismissed because his recent form was poor and his trainer's recent form was also below the usual standard. However, a horse having a sole poor run after a break is not necessarily negative - Hiconic being a prime example. Furthermore, Noel Meade is exceptional with his juvenile hurdlers and his 75% improvement rate will automatically improve to 77% once Perry Owens and Jeff Kidder return to the racecourse. The yard was still in decent enough health to send out the latter to finish second last week and is more than capable of getting good performances from lower rated flat horses.

With that out of the way, the preview for Monday's race.

The second race of the Irish season took place at Ballinrobe seven days after the curtain raiser at Roscommon. The former did not look quite as strong as the latter beforehand by virtue of the fact that there was a difference of a stone in the highest official flat ratings. This notion could be further justified by the fact that the first two here were beaten nearly eighteen and thirty-five lengths at Roscommon. Nevertheless, the strength in depth between the races was broadly level, the race itself was run at a good tempo and the winning time was the fastest of the four races on the card at the distance. The front four were also clear of a strung out field. Although given the nature of the track and numerous mistakes by many in the field, it is far from certain that the placings will hold. Notwithstanding, it otherwise has a solid look.

Little Brother was a winner on the flat but where the market is concerned, he disappointed on his hurdling debut last week after being backed into second favouritism. His jumping there was not terrible but left room for improvement and that perhaps remains the case as he did not post a foot perfect round. Nevertheless, he travelled well and close to the front, which helps at Ballinrobe, before knuckling down to draw away from the runner-up. The application of first time cheekpieces possibly helped but the drying conditions certainly did. Little Brother would be vulnerable on either softer ground or a more challenging circuit, especially to the third placed horse. Still, he has a nice attitude and his jumping can improve further so another race of this nature in these conditions would see him with a chance. 111

Calidus Mirabilis was best placed of these at Roscommon and though the winner reversed placings by over eighteen lengths, this was still an improved effort. He dived at his hurdles on a couple of occasions here but he got over those and the rest of the flights quickly and only made one real mistake three out. He helped to set a strong gallop and put in a fine effort overall although he probably won't want conditions much sterner than this. 109

Perry Owens would be the one horse to take from this race. His jumping was rather poor, particularly early on, he wandered into the penultimate flight, became unbalanced turning for home and was still a good ten lengths behind the winner at the furlong marker. Despite all of this, he was able to rally to get within two lengths of the winner. There is plenty to work on in the jumping department but if that improvement can be found then a contest such as this should be within his grasp. 109

Sister Eliza came from nowhere to finish third in a seven furlong handicap at Galway last time but was ridden more prominently here. Her jumping was decent save for a slow jump at the last but she was always close enough if good enough and does not appear to have any excuses. She can come on for this run but her prospects seem limited to this kind of level and it would be surprising if her capacity extended beyond this class. 102

Belgoprince did little in the way of racing on his hurdles debut and it was a similar story here. Though he jumped off with the rest of the field, he still kept himself to himself towards the back of the field while learning how to jump over hurdles. He made something resembling headway after the last and won the battle for fifth place while looking rather confused by the process. He is blatantly capable of much better. 100

Voice Of Hope was making his seasonal reappearance and was a bit reticent with his jumping at times before finishing rather tired. It was not brimming with promise but there was enough there to suggest that he can improve for fitness and experience, particularly on softer ground. 100

Varna Gold raced in the rear while making slow jumps but made good headway to join the leaders three from home. He shortly faded thereafter which could either be indicative of a lack of stamina or that the move took too much out of him. Not without promise but not immediately compelling either. 91

Tommy The Hat is a 57 rated eight race maiden on the flat and although his jumping was good, that was the only positive to be drawn. Other than a potential but unlikely lack of stamina for this particular task, there was no real explanation for his being well beaten beyond a general lack of class. 75

A Mere Bagatelle jumped well enough while leading on his debut at Roscommon but adopted more patient tactics here. There was some headway four out but he would fade shortly after. Perhaps more positive tactics might help in the future but he would still likely need handicaps before finding himself in the frame. 72

Corn On The Cob Horse had acquitted himself with much credit in three honourable front running defeats in flat handicaps this year but was not to repeat the dose on this occasion. Racing wide early on, Corn On The Cobb Horse found himself in a protracted battle for the lead and was lit up by the effort. While he was able to get his lead, it was a disputed one for much of the way and Corn On The Cobb Horse had enough some five furlongs from home. This was a disappointing effort and while Corn On The Cobb Horse does not have the profile of a dour stayer, he was beaten too far out for stamina to have been the key factor. Corn On The Cobb Horse was backed throughout the day but he did drift closer to the off which might be tangential to the ground conditions drying out. Another factor would almost certainly be the fact that Corn On The Cobb Horse did not enjoy fighting for the lead. In fairness to Corn On The Cob Horse, his jumping was absolutely fine and if he is not soured by the experience then he can step up markedly on this performance provided there is the likelihood of a soft lead on a suitable track. However, given that his valour is Corn On The Cob Horse's main asset, that an experience such as this might be detrimental to same could be a concern. 56

Blue Sky Thinker was rated forty on the flat after six starts which is about forty-six pounds superior to what he achieved here. Apart from a hesitant jump at the first, there was not much to complain about in that department. He was simply beaten very very far. 0

Money Mike was making his racecourse debut but apart from being distantly related to good horses, did not look particularly intriguing beforehand. He would finish hopelessly tailed off. 0

[Kotkijet]

Race seven of the juvenile hurdling season comes to us once again from Market Rasen and in Soldier On Parade, features the eleven length winner at the venue from nearly three weeks earlier. With six races already in the bag, the majority of the field comes into the race with hurdling experience. However, while one might assume that the proliferation of jumps form would make for a clearer assessment of the upcoming race, the principles emerge as a fairly tightly knit bunch. Prior to the curtain raiser, the average winning DI from the past fifty-three Market Rasen juvenile hurdles was 1.00 median and 1.40 mean - 1.27 when outliers were removed. Latest winner Soldier On Parade's DI of 4.60 is an inaccurate anomaly given that he is by a Melbourne Cup winner but these figures along with average course times indicate that the track is fairly standard in its stamina demands. The ground is currently good although with rain and humid weather forecast in the interim, conditions may end up rather sticky, placing more emphasis on stamina. Market Rasen juvenile hurdles have been contested in recent years by the likes of Tiger Roll, Fox Norton, Countrywide Flame and Katchit. Although it is unlikely that there is anything of that calibre lining up on Sunday, enough of the field have decent profiles and it could turn out to be a nice race for the time of year.

Soldier On Parade bg Amy Murphy f7-0-1 (65) 68 j2-1-1 (-) 107
Dunaden (Mujadil){1-u}(4.60) 2/1 Out Of Control 1st Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2009
Soldier On Parade's official flat mark has dropped slightly since his jumps debut but it still reads well in the context of this field and the form of his last two runs in that discipline has held up nicely. Such encouragement is extended by the fact that he is almost certainly a better hurdler based on his two runs thus far. Well backed before his debut at Bangor, he jumped and travelled well for a first outing before pulling clear with the eventual winner. Next time at Market Rasen he made all for a comfortable if not effortless success. He was a little keen early on which affected his jumping but apart from being guessy at the last, was neat and tidy at the rest of his jumps. He was entitled to win the way he did and the runner up aside, there was not a great deal finishing behind him. Nevertheless, it was still a performance which affords him respect in this field and his being a course winner representing a still in-form yard gives him few questions to answer.

Bannister bg T George f1-0-0 (-) 66 j1-0-1 (-) 94
Olympic Glory (Kendor){4-n}(1.00) .5 Ciboure 2nd Conditions Hurdle, Far Hills 2019
Bannister was green on his sole flat start last season in a mile novice stakes at Windsor where he finished fourth of thirteen. While that race has not produced many winners, the form of those around him is worthy of a rating in the low seventies. He was also green on his jumps debut at Stratford and early exertions were to the detriment of his jumping and finishing. Nevertheless, it was still a fair effort and he battled well to hold on to second place. The winner since followed up at Newton Abbot and the third was beaten the same distance in the same race. RPR deemed those to be improved efforts but while that is up for debate, it still grants credence to the form. Tom George enjoyed a double at Cartmel with his last couple of runners and in Olympic Glory, Bannister has a very interesting stallion in the division. Winning with two of his five juveniles in the UK and Ireland last season, Olympic Glory is also responsible for Blackiron who is a dual winner in France this season. If Bannister can settle better, which is plausible given the lead he might be given from Soldier On Parade, then the seven pound pull in the weights could prove favourable given an assumed improvement on his debut effort.

Dragon Man bg M Young f3-0-0 (47) 45 j2-0-0 (-) 47
Dragon Pulse (Editor's Note){23}(1.50) 2/1 Mad George winless in two hurdles starts
Dragon Man was nearly one hundred and ten lengths behind Bannister at Stratford on his hurdling debut but got to within sixty-three lengths of Soldier On Parade at Market Rasen last time. Not an atrocious jumper but does not look a natural either and is highly unlikely to make an impact in this field.

Historic Heart chg Nigel Hawke f4-0-1 (75) 70
Fracas (Giant's Causeway){14-c}(1.00) 3/1 Direct Lady 3rd Festival Hurdle, Leopardstown 1992
One of two hurdling debutants in the field, Historic Heart's half-sister is the dam of stablemate Peat Moss who was third at Newton Abbot in the first juvenile of the season. They also share the same sire and both started off with Jim Bolger. However, Historic Heart is officially rated twenty-five pounds superior. Initially rated 78, his being beaten thirteen lengths in a Doncaster handicap suggests that mark was too stiff and this notion is supported by the fact that the form in his better races has not worked out especially well. His stable does well in this sphere with a near 22% winners to runners ratio and has won juveniles with a couple of ex Jim Bolger horses in Repetitio and Level Of Intensity. Although he is probably flattered by his flat rating, he can still make a respectable debut at the course which, a few seasons ago, saw his yard represented by Tiger Roll.

Kings Creek bg A King f5-0-0 (62) 65 j1-0-0 (-) 87
Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 2/1 Point Of Origin 1st Handicap Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
Alan King's record in this type of event is outstanding. Out of every yard with fifty or more juveniles since 2011/12, only Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins have better winners to runners ratios. The stable is set to send out two this Sunday and Kings Creek has the stronger credentials. He was well backed before his debut at Stratford where he finished nearly six lengths behind Bannister. His jumping and travelling that day were fine which while encouraging in and of itself, does not leave much room for improvement. Furthermore, he is not an assured stayer and his already having had a wind operation and the potentially sticky conditions which await this Sunday may prove problematic. Not to mention that the Alan King yard has yet to have a jumps winner from its twenty-one runners since lockdown.

Navajo Eagle bg Denis Quinn f3-0-0 (50) 50
Gleneagles (Victory Gallop){4-r}(0.91) 3/3 Master Dino 1st Prix Renaud du Vivier, Auteuil 2018
Gleneagles won two group races on the flat with his first crop of two year olds last season and will on Sunday make his first engagement with the world of juvenile hurdling. Several sons of Galileo have proven themselves very useful at producing juveniles including Nathaniel, Soldier Of Fortune and Teofilo. Navajo Eagle is related to some decent jumpers such as Ulundi (3/2), Master Dino (3/3) and Palarshan (5/5) but his flat form lacks promise as he his best of three efforts still saw him beaten eighteen lengths in a Chelmsford novice stakes in July.

Party Potential bg A King f7-0-0 (49) 56 j1-0-0 (-) 81
Congrats (Half Ours){8-f}(4.45) US Family
The second of the Alan King entries and the weaker on paper. His flat rating, his jumping fluency and overall attitude are a step below those of his stablemate who himself comes into this race looking vulnerable. Party Potential’s run at this venue twenty days earlier saw him jump better than some of his rivals but he was still twenty-six lengths behind Soldier On Parade and as the potential increase in stamina demands negates the winner's penalty, there is little to suggest that he can close that gap.

To Fly Free bf David Pipe f6-1-1 (72.6) 79 j1-0-1 (-) 89
Soldier Hollow (Canford Cliffs){19-b}{0.57) 3/1 Video Tape 2nd Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil 1985
A winner on the flat in France, To Fly Free would contest a listed race at Bordeaux in May. However, she finished last there and disappointed in her next two races before selling for €6,000 at Arqana. David Pipe has been in form recently with two wins this fortnight and has a respectable record with juvenile hurdlers. A winners to runners rate of 36.54% increases to 66.67% when looking at those imported from the flat in France although To Fly Free would be the cheapest of those with public price tags. She made her UK and hurdling debut at Cartmel last week and after jumping nicely, was still travelling approaching the penultimate flight. However, she weakened shortly afterwards and would finish a twenty-four length third. She had been with the yard for less than three weeks and her pedigree suggests that it was more a lack of fitness than a lack of stamina which saw her fade so quickly. Her amateur jockey's claim of seven pounds on top of her sex allowance of the same amount give her prospects an interesting look on bare form and weights alone before her flat rating or assumed improvement are even taken into account. The yard's juveniles can take a few runs to get going and the conditions may place further emphasis on her unproven stamina, but she is still entitled to respect in this company.

Strong prospects
1. Bannister
Reasonable prospects
2. Soldier On Parade
3. To Fly Free
Feasible prospects
4. Kings Creek
5. Historic Heart
Moderate prospects
6. Party Potential
Negligible prospects
7. Navajo Eagle
8. Dragon Man

[Kotkijet]

Ireland's third juvenile hurdle of the season takes place at Tipperary on Monday and it will be the first three year old hurdle hosted by the venue since 2016. Indeed, only six such races have been hosted at Limerick Junction this century which means that attempting to use dosage indexes to ascertain the stamina requirements of the race might be a forlorn task. For the record, the average DIs of the six winners are 1.92 median and 2.33 mean which would make sense given that it is a fairly sharp and flat track. However, it has also been reported that the track can get very testing when soft which given the forecast is a distinct possibility. This theory appears to be justified by the fact that when the ground is soft, pattern level races over the course and distance have been won by some dour types over the years including Solerina, Jezki, Ivan Grozny and Essex. Half of this field comes into the race with hurdling experience and those without do not bring a high level of flat form which would theoretically make this the least competitive race of the season thus far.

Bass Reeves bg Noel Meade f6-0-0 (49) 59
Es Que Love (Diesis){11-a}(1.00) 5/1 Old Vic leading National Hunt stallion
Noel Meade has an outstanding record with juvenile hurdlers and both of his forays into the division this season have finished in the frame. Bass Reeves, his representative in this race, was initially set to make his debut at Ballinrobe last week but was withdrawn after a going change. Bringing with him an official mark of 49, Bass Reeves started off with a mark of 58 which was earned when he finished last of eight in a Leopardstown maiden last July and he followed that by finishing well beaten in a pair of Curragh nurseries in the Autumn. His seasonal reappearance came in June when beating only two of seventeen home in a Leopardstown handicap and he has not been seen since. Es Que Love has only had the one juvenile this far (a maiden from four starts) and the Clodovil line has not really been tested (Gregorian has zero wins from three juveniles). Diesis has a good record as a damsire and his 40% winners to runners rate is best in this field. Noel Meade is never to be underestimated in the division and has won juveniles with lesser rated hometrained horses than Bass Reeves. Nevertheless, it is still difficult to get from the poor flat record and patchy profile.

Calidus Mirabilis bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f12-2-1 (68) 75 j2-0-1 (-) 108
Hot Streak (Oasis Dream){4-j}(1.50) 4/5 La Limagne 1st Prix Tanerko Handicap Hurdle, Auteuil 2018
Calidus Mirabilis has been ever present in Irish juvenile hurdles this season and with a fourth and a second, brings the highest standard of hurdling form. Boasting an official rating of 68, he also sets the standard for flat form. Twice a winner on the all-weather at the start of the year, he nearly added a third when a neck runner up in a Dundalk handicap in July. After finishing an eighteen length fourth on his jumps debut at Roscommon, he stepped up on that effort in terms of both fluency and form when only losing the lead on the run in at Ballinrobe last week. To reiterate, Calidus Mirabilis easily sets the form standard and his prominent racing style can serve him well here. However, even though he finished a close fourth on soft ground in a seven furlong Down Royal nursery last August, there will be doubts over whether he can maintain his form on this going. Especially as his pedigree and overall form suggests that he might prefer less give.

Clever Currency chg Paul W Flynn f4-0-0 (45) 47
Red Jazz (Intikhab){21-a}(0.60) 2/1 First Symphony 1st Maiden Hurdle, Clonmel 2008
Clever Currency had three runs on the flat for Patrick Neville at up to seven furlongs and while he was never last or completely tailed off, his official mark of 45 seems correct. He made his debut for his new stable at Leopardstown in July but unseated after attempting to jump a roadway. Red Jazz's offspring are without a win from seventeen outings in this sphere which is identical to Intikhab's record as a damsire. The dam is a half-sister to a winning hurdler and Grade One winning juvenile Cherub (5/4) appears in the distance of the damline but there is little else to enthuse over in this profile.

Corn On The Cob Horse grg M C Grassick f12-0-3 (64) 66
Camacho (Verglas){8-h}(1.12) 2/1 Whiskey Sour 3rd/4th County Hurdle, Cheltenham 2018/19
Corn On The Cob Horse went into his hurdling debut last Monday with a compelling profile based on his reasonable flat form, solid pedigree, front running tactics and admirable battling attitude. However, he would prove to be disappointing as he was not pleased with being taken on for the lead and would give up the ghost a long way from home. With Calidus Mirabilis reopposing and potential front runner Summit Rock in the field, Corn On The Cob Horse may once again struggle to get his own way up front. However, he is more likely to enjoy the soft ground than the former and with hurdling experience under his belt, should be able to fend off the newcomer - particularly as his jumping is already decent. Corn On The Cob Horse has been abandoned by Luke Dempsey for his stablemate but while he will ridden by a claimer here, Simon Torrens has tasted success at this venue and on front runners. Furthermore, Corn On The Cob Horse ran a good second at Fairyhouse under another claimer. Anybody risking anything resembling money on Corn On The Cob Horse either deserves the Victoria Cross for bravery or should consider the implications of such a nihilistic approach to life. Nevertheless, on the balance of probability, it is still possible to justify a vastly improved effort from Corn On The Cob Horse.

Differentiate bg Gavin Cromwell f8-0-2 (55) 58 j1-0-0 (-) 88
Maxios (Kris S){2-d}(1.21) 2/2 Maxios 3/1 Exit To Nowhere
Despite improvement in the last two of his eight flat runs, Differentiate's form did not really entitle him to finish better than the thirty-seven length seventh he posted at Roscommon on his hurdles debut. Nevertheless, in this company, he is no more than a stone from the highest rated, the two in front of him in a Sligo handicap have finished first and second over hurdles (albeit both carried more weight) and there was enough at Roscommon to suggest he would make a better hurdler. His jumping was fine, and he kept on towards the end suggesting that a sterner test would enable him to step up on that performance. There is further encouragement to be taken from the fact that both his sire and in-form trainer are well above standard in this discipline. If there are reasons to dampen his prospects, they may lie in his still needing further improvement and that hold up tactics might not suit. However, if he is not ridden too far from the leaders then it is reasonable to expect a fair showing here.

Made In Pimlico chg Brendan W Duke f7-0-0 (42) 47
Dragon Pulse (Giant's Causeway){8-k}(1.25) no jumps relatives
Made In Pimlico came up against classic contenders in his first three maiden races but was beaten a long way on those occasions and failed to finish better than midfield in four nurseries off low marks. While his trainer has an above average record in these races, his sire has just a 3% strike rate and with a long absence to overcome, Made In Pimlico makes little appeal first time out.

Poets Touch bg Andrew Slattery f1-0-0 (-) 59
Poet's Voice (Candy Ride){12-b}(3.00) no jumps relatives
Poets Touch made his racecourse debut last month at Killarney where he was a sixteen length seventh behind the winner and nearly six lengths behind fellow debutant Orchestral Rain who would finish third at Roscommon. One of two representatives for Andrew Slattery, he is also by the same sire as his stablemate although on breeding, Poets Touch would be the less likely of the two to appreciate conditions. His case is not a mediocre one but the likelihood is that a few of these will prove too strong at this juncture.

Strip Light chg M Halford f3-0-0 (68) 67 j1-0-0 (-) 86
Outstrip (Dark Angel){1-p}(2.00) 3/1 Fine Lace 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Chepstow 2010
Michael Halford's first juvenile runner for a long time had his fate sealed early on when making a bad mistake at the first on his hurdling debut at Roscommon. Although his official flat rating of 68 is one of the highest in the field, it almost certainly flatters him and he is unlikely to appreciate the softer ground on breeding. While he has shown enough to suggest he can be competitive in some capacity, he would need to demonstrate more fluent jumping before he can be given serious prospects over hurdles.

Summit Rock bg T G McCourt f8-0-0 (56) 69
Exceed And Excel (Iceman){16-a}(1.00) 2/2 Quick Jack 1st Galway Hurdle (136), Galway 2015
Taken out of his intended hurdles debut at Roscommon with a stone bruise, Summit Rock was initially handed a rating of 74 after three runs in Dundalk maidens for Dermot Weld last year. That rating was based on the sole occasion he was beaten less than four lengths and that came in a maiden that has produced only one subsequent winner. After selling at Goffs for €6,000 in February, Summit Rock has been well beaten in four handicaps and his current rating of 56 is greater than the sum of those efforts. While he is related to winners on the dam's side, including Rodolfo, Ballistic Boy and Galway Hurdle winner Quick Jack, his sire has a poor record in this sphere.

Thekeyisnottopanic bg C W J Farrell f3-0-0 (55) 49
Rock Of Gibraltar (Areion){16-c}(2.43) 3/1 Salden Licht 3rd Aintree Hurdle (G1), Aintree 2011
Thekeyisnottopanic has struggled thus far in his three attempts in maiden company this year. There have been good horses finishing a long way ahead of him such as Russian Emperor, Tiger Moth, Dawn Patrol and Amhran Na Bhfiann and Thekeyisnottopanic actually led the first named on his debut at Naas. But his rating of 55 is harsh based on what he has produced up to this point. Rock Of Gibraltar is capable of siring juveniles and has a roughly average winners to runners rate but his overall strike rate of 6.77% and improvement rate of just 25% will not be of much use here. There are very good jumpers of German stock on the damline such as Saltas (3/1), Serienschock (3/2) and Sternrubin (4/3) and his damsire has produced a winning juvenile in France but at this stage, his rivals won't have much reason to panic.

Voice Of Hope brg Andrew Slattery f7-0-0 (63) 72 j1-0-0 (-) 96
Poet's Voice (Montjeu){14-c}(0.82) 3/1 Pack The Punch 3rd Maiden Hurdle, Wexford 2015
The stablemate of Poets Touch, Voice Of Hope's hurdling debut was delayed by a week as he was only a reserve at Roscommon. As such, his first foray over jumps came at Ballinrobe last week on ground which probably did not suit. Nevertheless, the bare form was an improvement on where he had left off as a two-year-old and much closer to his better efforts on softer ground. Furthermore, in the context of this race, only Calidus Mirabilis brings better hurdling form. His jumping was not altogether fluent but he is entitled to improve for the experience and with the forecast rain and his stripping fitter, there is every reason to suspect that he can leave that effort behind.

Divine Covey grf Padraig Roche f6-0-0 (65) 67
Dark Angel (Paco Boy){2-f}(3.00) 2/1 Sign Manual 1st Handicap Hurdle (110), Catterick 2016
Running in The Queen's colours under the care of Richard Hannon, Divine Covey had earned an official rating of 68. Her final start in England came in a seven-furlong Newbury nursery where she was less than two lengths third, only half a length behind a subsequent winner while finishing ahead of three. She was offered at the Tattersalls Autumn sales and picked up for 15,000 guineas. However, she has finished tailed off on both of her outings for her new trainer this year and while he trained Grade Three winning juvenile Way Back Home, his other four since 2011/12 failed to reach the first three. Divine Covey's dam is a half-sister to a winning hurdler and Dark Angel does get juveniles including Guitar Pete, Silver Streak and recent Cartmel winner Naizagai. However, it would be preferable to see more stamina in her pedigree. Furthermore, of the twenty-two juveniles sold at public auction from the Richard Hannon yard, only two (Pete So High and Lil Rockerfeller) would win during their first season over hurdles. Divine Covey showed a good level of form last season but her recent form and general profile leaves her with many questions to answer.

Merry Poppins grf J Motherway Unraced
Authorized (Peintre Celebre){1-w}(0.68) 2/1 In On The Act 3rd Juvenile Mdn Hurdle, Plumpton 2006
Merry Poppins was set to make her debut at Roscommon but was withdrawn after being reported lame. Only Mastercraftsman (21) has sired more winning juveniles than Authorized (20) in the UK and Ireland since 2011/12 and the latter has done so with fewer runners. Peintre Celebre is also an above average damsire by class, winners to runners and improvement metrics. Merry Poppins will be only the second juvenile hurdler from the yard since 2011/12 and her damline is threadbare insofar as hurdling talent is concerned so a strong argument for her cannot be made based on decent sirelines alone.

Sweet Sixteen bf M C Grassick f7-0-1 (59) 64
Maxios (Second Empire){7-f}(0.69) 4/2 Annie Power 170 1st Champion Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2016
Stablemate of Corn On The Cob Horse, Sweet Sixteen has an appealing pedigree. Counting stallions with ten or more runners, Maxios is in the top ten in terms of winners to runners, class and overall strike rate and the damline features Annie Power (4/2), Sadlers Wings (4/2) and Aachen (4/3). Sweet Sixteen began her career with Amy Murphy but while there were hints of promise on her first three starts in novice auction company, she would be beaten a combined forty-eight lengths in a couple of backend nurseries. After fetching just €4,000 at the Goffs February sales, she finished down the field in a couple of Leopardstown handicaps - the latest coming eleven days ago. Sweet Sixteen should have no trouble getting the trip has every right to make a better hurdler on breeding. However, she was still sold cheaply and her recent form leaves her with something to find on her hurdling debut.

Strong prospects
1. Corn On The Cob Horse
2. Calidus Mirabilis
3. Voice Of Hope
Reasonable prospects
4. Differentiate
5. Bass Reeves
Feasible prospects
6. Sweet Sixteen
7. Poets Touch
Moderate prospects
8. Divine Covey
9. Strip Light
Negligible prospects
10. Summit Rock
11. Clever Currency
12. Thekeyisnottopanic
13. Merry Poppins
14. Made In Pimlico

[BigChaang]

In the 12-30 at market Rasen today .
I decided Soldier on parade and To fly free were .
Strong prospects and Bannister a reasonable prospect .
Very interesting to read your Take on the race Kotkijet.
Look forward to more .

[Istabraq]

I’ve had to follow the advice on Bannister here, 4.2 on fair looks OK given Kotkijets comments...

[Kotkijet]

The case for Bannister is mostly contingent on his improving on his debut run. On strict form, I have Soldier On Parade's performance some ten pounds superior to that of Bannister. Juveniles improve for the debut runs for obvious reasons although the degree to what this happens varies and would require more research. Early findings show that there is an improvement of roughly seven to ten pounds from first run to second run, another few pounds second to third before it tends to plateau. Bear in mind that these are very preliminary findings and the sample size is small.

By my reckoning, Soldier On Parade improved about seven pounds from Bangor to Market Rasen and looked more fluent and neater for the experience. He is still entitled to improve further but there isn't obvious scope. Bannister was very fresh at Stratford and if he settles better then an improvement of at least half a stone would not be at all surprising. The yard is also in better form than a few weeks ago although given the nature of the past couple of months, that may be neither here nor there.

Looking at the ten pound difference, seven of that has gone straight away with the penalty which leaves the question 'Can Bannister improve three pounds further than Soldier On Parade?' I think it is very possible but the answer is not an obvious one. As such, from a value perspective, one horse should not be 1.88 while the other is hitting 5.00 (which were the prices when I started typing but the market has readjusted in the meantime). This could all be moot though since if To Fly Free runs to her official French flat mark then her nose ends up in front...

I should stress that I am a novice when it comes to ratings and everything I just wrote could well be nonsense

[Istabraq]

Far from nonsense Kotkijet, very sound reasoning.
Bannister into 4 now...

[Kotkijet]

Preview review
In terms of overall content, I can only be pleased with that preview. Reasonable explanations for what happened in the race could be found and there were no real surprises. It was not perfect and there are two faults that should be addressed. The first being that the prospects/rankings section needs sorting out. One can ruminate on the fact that the winner was not given strong prospects despite setting the standard and having "few questions to answer" but the problem is that the section has no formal standard. Ambiguity is the enemy of consistency so while I like the actual words and numbers, the strict definitions and structure needs to be standardised. Secondly, Bannister's overestimation was contingent on his settling better which is a far cry from being predictable. While greenness can reduce and jumping can improve with experience, keenness is probably more a trait that dissipates with age than the amount of hurdles jumped.

Race preview
Yesterday's race at Market Rasen looked like a fair contest beforehand and the front running Soldier On Parade repeated his victory at the venue from three weeks earlier. It was ran at a fair pace and while the winning time was just over two seconds slower than the Class 3 handicap (won by confirmed trailblazer Brandon Castle), it was still a second and a half quicker than the closing bumper. There were no hard luck stories but the jumping from most of the participants was below average. Nevertheless while the front five were covered by just over nine lengths, they were all entitled to be there on paper and the form has a reasonably solid look about it.

Soldier On Parade made all to win at Market Rasen on his second hurdles start and did the same thing again here. The winning distance of eleven lengths was reduced to just two and a half lengths this time but the opposition was much stronger. As on his first two starts, his acceleration around four furlongs out made all the difference and while his rivals were closing towards the end, he never looked in danger. While he was less keen than on his latest start, there was not a huge improvement in his jumping as he steadied into the second, made a slight error at the fourth and was not fluent at either of his jumps in the straight. Nevertheless, he was still a decisive winner under a penalty from a reasonable field and though his jumping is not foot perfect, he has a decent attitude. 116

To Fly Free was not an expensive purchase from the flat and is beginning to look like an astute purchase. She jumped well on her debut at Cartmel and was still travelling well before fading quickly two from home. The impression that day was that it was more a lack of fitness than stamina which caused her to drop out and that impression was confirmed as she was the fastest finisher in this field. She miscalculated the penultimate flight of hurdles and rather hopped over the last but was otherwise as close to foot perfect as you can see an early season juvenile and it is possible that she may have been distracted by the winner's jumping in the home straight. This was a satisfactory second outing in this country and given that her yard can bring their juveniles along, she can improve further still on this effort. 100

Historic Heart is officially rated 75 on the flat although that rating almost certainly flatters him. Nevertheless, this was a pleasing debut as he was able to finish ahead of experienced hurdlers of a vaguely similar flat standard. He jumped the first fine but the rest of his round was a bit of a mixed bag which provides room for improvement. Historic Heart also found himself outpaced approaching the business end but was able to plug on to take third place near the finish. He is another who can step up on this performance and be competitive at this level. 103

Kings Creek had jumped and travelled fine on his debut at Stratford but was beaten over fourteen lengths by the winner. Here he finished nearly eight lengths closer to the winner and reversed placings with runner-up Bannister although his jumping had been less fluent, particularly in the first half of the race. It did improve as the race progressed and it is possible that he is a better jumper at a stronger gallop as he was ridden more prominently at Stratford. The downside to this however is that he might struggle to sustain a strongly run effort over jumps which leaves him in something of a limbo. 103

Bannister's fate was sealed from the start as he pulled his way through the first half of the race and was effortlessly dropped by the winner at the start of the home turn. His keenness did his jumping no favours either has he was slow to get away from his early jumps. There is no reason to suspect his heart as he did try to plug on but it was to no avail at the end. Bannister has talent and his jumping was decent at times but until he learns how to settle then he is going to struggle in open company. 100

Dragon Man was having his third start over hurdles and this was his best effort in the division thus far. He also jumped the fourth hurdle well and won the battle up the straight for sixth place. However, he was also poor at a few jumps and was beaten over fifty-two lengths at the end. 57

Navajo Eagle lacked fluency over his first hurdles in public and while his jumping improved through the race, he still finished tailed off. His flat form is not strong and needs to show much more in order to be competitive. 57

Party Potential finished over twenty-five lengths fourth on his hurdles debut and did not improve on that performance here. A stablemate of Kings Creek, he looks to have the exact opposite problem insofar as jumping is concerned. Whereas the aforementioned jumped poorly for being held up, Party Potential jumped poorly for racing prominently. His jumping can improve for being held up but his overall standard of form and suspect stamina might see him continue to struggle in this discipline. 0

In the 12-30 at market Rasen today .
I decided Soldier on parade and To fly free were .
Strong prospects and Bannister a reasonable prospect .
Very interesting to read your Take on the race Kotkijet.
Look forward to more .

Very good shout. I hope to see more good judgement on this thread in the future

[Kotkijet]

The review for today's race at Tipperary will appear tomorrow at the earliest. In the meantime, here is some rather topical research I have done on juveniles winning on their racecourse debuts.

Since the beginning of the 2011/12 jumps season and prior to today's race at Tipperary, there had been 429 horses who made their debuts in juvenile hurdles in the UK and Ireland. Thirty-three of them won during their first season although only eight of those did so on their first outing which works out at a 2% strike rate. Here is a look at those winners, the races they won and what they went on to achieve.

Ballynacree bg C Roche 18th February 2012, 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Gowran Park
Westerner (Montelimar){9-c}(1.80) 2/1 Risk Accessor 1st Slaney Novice Hurdle
By Westerner and out of a half sister to Risk Accessor and Galetollah who was placed over hurdles, Ballynacree was definitely bred more like a store horse than a typical juvenile. His debut came in a seventeen runner maiden where the market was headed by Willie Mullins' 93 rated flat recruit Shamar and another french flat recruit in Gordon Elliot's Cause Of Causes. Ballynacree was not fancied that day at 40/1 but while his task was made easier by a final flight fall by Cause Of Causes, he still ran out a convincing six length winner. He was runner up to Lord Windermere next time at Naas but was soon back in the winners' enclosure when taking a Grade 3 at Fairyhouse. Ballynacree only had two more starts, finishing third in a four year old hurdle at Limerick on Boxing Day before tailing off in a Naas Beginners Chase in March 2014.

Knight Of Pleasure chg Gary Moore 5th January 2013, Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown
Exit To Nowhere (Kaldounevees){1-b}(2.27) 4/1 Sir Fontenailles 3rd Prix Maurice Gillois 1983
Another jumps bred horse, Knight Of Pleasure was out of a dual winning jumper with multiple winning siblings from the extended family of Tamarinbleu. He started at 20/1 in a seven runner affair where the market revolved around 1/3 favourite For Two. For Two, representing Paul Nicholls, had won at Auteuil and finished second at Aintree in two prior starts and the next in the betting was a Plumpton winner with an official rating of 110. Knight Of Pleasure would go on to finish eighth in the Fred Winter and win a handicap at Fontwell that autumn off 124 but that would be his last win. Half of his remaining eight races were comprised of a fruitless novice chasing career and he would be last seen in a Wincanton handicap hurdle in November 2015.

Tiger Roll bg Nigel Hawke 10th November 2013, Juvenile Hurdle, Market Rasen
Authorized (Entrepreneur){31}(0.58) 2/1 Khachaturian 1st Beginners Chase, Kempton 2009
Between his selling for £10,000 as a Darley cast-off at Doncaster in the August and his debut in November, Tiger Roll's half-brother Ahzeemah won the Lonsdale Cup and finished runner up in the Irish St Leger. Stamina is repeated in his pedigree as his dam was runner up in the Vintage Crop stakes, and jumping is not absent either as his granddam won a Haydock Novice Hurdle by twelve lengths and produced dual winning chaser Khachaturian. The race at Market Rasen was a moderate affair and the field was headed by 2/11 favourite Zamoyski whose expectations were based on his winning a flat handicap off 80 and finishing sixteen lengths third in the Wensleydale Hurdle nine days earlier. The only other meaningful contender was a 67 rated horse from the flat. Little can be said of Tiger Roll's subsequent excursions that is not already common knowledge but just in case, he was bought by Gigginstown, finished second in a Leopardstown Grade One, won the Triumph Hurdle and eventually two Grand Nationals.

Alterno bg Desmond McDonogh 17th March 2016, 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Wexford
Fastnet Rock (Vettori){8-f}(3.00) 2/1 Authinger 1st Beginners Chase, Down Royal 2014
That Alterno would start as 9/4 second favourite for the eight runner Wexford maiden in which he made is debut is indicative of how poor a contest it was. Favourite Shamash was a 75 rated flat horse making his hurdles debut and third favourite Windsor Higgins was rated 47 on the flat and lost in her two hurdles races by seventy-one lengths combined. Alterno was also Fastnet Rock's first jumps winner but while the dam's side was better known for its classic winners in Cape Verdi and Aquarelliste, it still contained winning jumpers such as Albert Hall, Forgotten Voice and Boarding School. Alterno would find himself outclassed next time in a Fairyhouse Grade Two and would endure a further thirteen defeats over hurdles before taking a Downpatrick Handicap the following August off 95.

Diable de Sivola bg Nick Williams 24th July 2016, Juvenile Hurdle, Uttoxeter
Noroit (Lost World){3-o}(0.33) 2/1 Gringo 1st Novices Chase, Perth 2010
Diable de Sivola was bred to race over the jumps in France. His dam won hurdle races at Strasbourg and Fontainebleau and his half sisters had also won over obstacles. He faced five rivals at Uttoxeter including two previous winners who went off ahead of him in the market, the next best going off at 20/1. Diable de Sivola would not win again as a juvenile but he did run sound races in defeat including when beaten by less than two lengths in a Grade Two while giving weight to Defi du Seuil as well as finishing fifth in the Fred Winter. Indeed, that debut effort would be his only win to date despite twenty-one attempts over hurdles and fences and earning marks in the mid 130s in both disciplines.

Montestrel bg Jane Williams 14th October 2018, Juvenile Hurdle, Chepstow
Montmartre (Desert King){9-e}(0.57) 2/1 Laveron 1st Grande Course de Haies d'Auteuil 2002
Montmartre had already shown himself a capable sire of juveniles with Petite Parisienne and Kalkir and Montestrel's dam was a half sister to German Derby third and top class French Hurdler Laveron. Furthermore, prior to his Chepstow debut, Montestrel also had three winning siblings over jumps. Sent off at 20/1, he appeared to face stiff competition that one could expect from the race including Auteuil winner Quel Destin, Fontsainebleu winner Fanfan du Seuil and Alan King's 78 rated flat horse Elysees. Nevertheless, he put up a game effort to win by a length and a half. Montestrel has only had two subsequent outings finishing last behing Quel Destin in a Cheltenham Grade Two and a thirty length fifth in a Taunton novice.

Bua Boy bg Denis Gerard Hogan 21st April 2019, 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Cork
Doyen (Priolo){5-h}(0.89) 1/½ Princely Conn 3rd Galway Hurdle 2016
Doyen has spent most of his career as a national hunt stallion and while the dam hails from the family of North Light, Golan, Bonny Scot, Tartan Bearer etc, she collected black type over hurdles and produced the useful Princely Conn. The race that Bua Boy won was so late in the season that it barely passes for a juvenile. Containing sixteen runners, the favourite was a Willie Mullins horse also making his racecourse debut while the next in the betting were a couple of flat winners and a hurdles runner up on the only previous start. Third on his return in a Wexford novice, it would be another six races before Bua Boy regained the winning thread, picking up a brace of handicaps this summer at Galway and Sligo.

Langer Dan bg Dan Skelton 9th October 2019, Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow
Ocovango (Milan){3-i}(0.71) 3/1 Celestial Gold 1st Hennessy Gold Cup, Newbury 2004
Langer Dan was Ocovango's first runner over hurdles and until yesterday, the only one. His other offspring were all introduced to the sport by means of bumpers and Langer Dan's pedigree is all about jumping. Out of an unraced Milan half-sister to five decent jumps winners including Klepht and Welsh Shadow, the granddam produced the top class Celestial Gold and Fiveforthree. A couple of generations back will reveal L'Escargot and The Pilgarlic and after another couple of steps, one can find another Aintree legend in Mr What. The Ludlow race won by Langer Dan was not a strong one with the strongest contenders being a Down Royal third and a Plumpton runner up. He was sent off 11/4 second favourite on the strength of his pedigree and trainer and followed up in the Wensleydale Hurdle at Wetherby. He did not win again last season but did finish second at Cheltenham's December meeting before closing his season with a sixth in the Fred Winter.

[Kotkijet]

Preview review
The front three were 16/1, 10/1 and 66/1 but there were feasible reasons for them all to fill those places as well as for the odds-on favourite to underperform. Tipperary is usually a track that suits those who race prominently although those in front went off too quickly and the race ended up falling apart. The winner's magnificent sire was mentioned but the fact that she had two black type siblings was completely ignored due to the fact that it was flat black type. While flat pedigrees are not that interesting if the horse has already been exposed in that discipline, they carry considerably more weight when the horse is making its racecourse debut. Furthermore, given that the winner was given moderate prospects on her intended debut but negligible prospects in a weaker contest is alarming. The previews would work perfectly fine without a prospects section and I have no designs whatsoever on being a tipster. However, predicting outcomes is a fun part of the sport for many who follow it and while I do not gamble, it serves a useful quality control purpose as it can highlight areas of the sphere which I may be overlooking. Nevertheless, it needs a complete overhaul and definitive codification before the preview for Saturday's race.

Race review
Despite being held at the usually easy Tipperary, Ireland's third juvenile of the season was a truly attritional affair more befitting the end of December than the middle of August. The first three finished a long way clear of the remainder and were all held up off a suicidal pace. While they carried long odds, their prominence was not wholly unpredictable. It was rather contingent on the race being poor one however and that would appear to be the case on initial impressions. The race fell apart from the front and the winning time was five seconds slower than the following 80-109 handicap won by a positively ridden 66/1 shot. This is not to say that those who ran well emerge without promise and can not build on these efforts. Nevertheless, the bulk of the field were unsuited by the conditions which heavily diminished the overall substance of the race. Incidentally, this was the first juvenile of the season which saw either a fall or an unseat. For all that juvenile hurdles have a bad reputation for jumping, that fifty-nine horses running eighty-eight times in nine races without losing their jockey or uprightness is quite impressive.

Merry Poppins started the day at 33/1 but had halved in price before the off. It was said that she had schooled well and that transpired to be true. Nevertheless, there were also clues on breeding beforehand - primarily the fact that her sire Authorized is one the best in the division. Since 2011/12, he is now tied at the top for individual winners, 57% of his juveniles achieve RPRs of 108 and above and 78% of his recruits from the flat improve for switching code. While there are no notable jumping relatives on the damline, Merry Poppins is a half sister to two flat winners with ratings exceeding 100. Furthermore, damsire Peintre Celebre has a respectable record in the sphere with six of his twenty-six juveniles prior to yesterday being winners. In terms of the actual performance, Merry Poppins was as much a beneficiary of a brilliantly patient ride as she was a good jumper. Her willing attitude in the battle to the line was also important to her success here. While it is not easy to gauge her level, only 2% of juvenile hurdlers win on their racecourse debuts and though the bare form is not great, her ability to jump, battle and handle soft will serve her well. 106

Differentiate was beaten thirty-seven lengths on his debut but he was entitled to improve considerably on that outing. His yard does very well in this sphere and being by, and a closely related to, Maxios, these were his conditions. Sweating up beforehand, he made a slight error at the third but got away from it quickly enough and after a lack of concentration caused him to blunder two out, he was good over the last and perhaps could have won with a more spirited effort. This was by far a career best and he can be competitive again on this type of going. Although while he does not look like a nightmare, there are concerns regarding his mentality which might need ironing out if he is to progress further. 112

Sweet Sixteen started at 66/1 but although her official rating of 59 is both low and fairly steep, she is still rated within a couple of pounds of Calidus Mirabilis after her sex allowance. Furthermore, being by Maxios and coming from the same family as Annie Power, Sadlers Wings and Aachen, she is bred to be a juvenile hurdler. Carrying a more experienced rider than her stablemate, she was the first of the front three to make her forward move and though she led turning into the straight, never really looked like being able to fend off her challengers and would fade to be beaten fourteen and a half lengths. This was her best run this year and her jumping was fine. She can improve further for this run although she may be seen to best effect on soft ground in a low grade. 92

Calidus Mirabilis opened at 4/9 with one firm the day before the race and while 4/5 was a more realistic starting price, there were still concerns over his ability to handle testing conditions. He had led last time at Ballinrobe but although he did not force the pace here, he still raced prominently. His jumping was fine until they reached four out where he made a tired blunder. He steadied into the next and finished the race in his own time. This was a below par effort but while the rider was brought in front of the stewards and reported that the horse hung on occasion, his being a non-stayer is a fairly obvious explanation. It was also reported that he suffered a wound on his medial left cannon but he may have picked that up during his tired blunder and was otherwise normal post-race. He is capable of winning a race over hurdles as he had done on the flat but would need much more suitable conditions. 62

Poets Touch, available at 50/1 in the morning, was backed down to 8/1 at the off. He jumped well and was the last of the front runners to be beaten but he was very tired by the time he reached the straight. This was only his second racecourse appearance and there was enough promise here to suggest that he can be a contender at some point. Possibly on firmer ground. 55

Corn On The Cob Horse, everybody's favourite front running grey, was held up at the rear of the field. Although he made some moderate headway in the closing stages, he could not follow the moves made by the placed horses. Corn On The Cob horse has been beaten by nearly one hundred and twenty lengths in two starts over hurdles and though he is capable of better, he likely needs an easy lead on an easy circuit on yielding ground and nothing else before that can happen. It is possible that these early performances might grant him a very favourable handicap mark if he is ever afforded those circumstances. 53

Thekeyisnottopanic was well beaten on three flat starts and although his jumping was perfectly respectable on his hurdles debut, he never threatened to improve from the rear. Needs to find vast improvement in order to become competitive. 33

Clever Currency was involved in a slight skirmish at the second but put in an otherwise fine round of jumping. He raced prominently and ran freely before fading badly towards the end of the back straight. While those exertions finished his chances, he did not appear to have many going into the race to begin with. 1

Voice Of Hope made a promising seasonal reappearance at Ballinrobe and was sent off second favourite. His jumping was better here than it was on his debut but he parted company with his rider at the fifth. He was fine in his approach, but his hind hooves appeared to land just atop the flight which caused him to slip and crumble on landing. The jockey had no chance of staying aboard and it looked much more an unlucky mishap than a serious error. The horse rather faded back when he was running riderless but if he is none the worse for this incident then he can easily be forgiven the outing.

Bass Reeves was representing a Noel Meade yard which had done well thus far this season. He brought with him a low flat rating but that would not necessarily eliminate his chances as the yard has won this type of event with lower rated animals. However. his jumping completely lacked fluency and he was very cautious going into all of his hurdles. His hesitancy going into the sixth caused him to skid on the approach and he tripped over the flight as he attempted a bunny hop.

Made In Pimlico made little appeal before his hurdles debut and was eased from midfield and quickly pulled up at half way.

Divine Covey had shown some promise last season for Richard Hannon but disappointed in two runs in Ireland this season. She was also eased at halfway and would eventually pull up before two out.

Summit Rock had a history of racing freely on the flat and did so again on his hurdling debut. His early jumping was fine save for getting in close to the second. He made a tired leap at the sixth and was dropped approaching three out before pulling up shortly after that flight.

Strip Light made a bad mistake at the first flight on his debut and his jumping here once again lacked fluency. He hinted at ability on the flat but he looks completely unnatural over hurdles.