Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

[Kotkijet]

Thank you NC. There was the slight chance that the Listowel contest might offer an early clue for that race but it would appear we will have to first exercise some patience!

PLUMPTON
Preview review
Winner Peat Moss was underestimated on account of his poor recent run and a perceived need for a stiffer test. However, it has been noted that his potential over jumps is greater than that on the flat and with Calidus Mirabilis going off as quickly as he did, the consequent stiffer test in tandem with more suitable waiting tactics helped him realise the potential he had shown. His underestimation was still somewhat perturbing but had the pace not been so exaggerated then he probably would not have had the gears to win this contest. Apart from Peat Moss, the preview was otherwise satisfactory. Bourbali ran well despite some inexperienced jumping early on and emerges as very much the best in the field. Calidus Mirabilis's chances were indeed compromised by the extended distance. Prince Percy once again disappointed following market support and his uncharacteristically below-par effort last time was replicated as he failed to build on his hurdling debut.

Race review
While not an atrocious looking event, those with experience either had questions to answer or looked fair at best. The pace was a solid one which had the field strung out with over a mile still to be ran. Although the winning time was almost four seconds slower than the maiden hurdle later on the card, a hypothetical weight-for-age allowance roughly aligns the two races. The first two in the betting ran below their best but those runs can be accounted for by a dip in form and incorrect tactics. Otherwise, the first three had every right to fill their respective places and the outsiders were beaten a long way from home. Both the winner and the runner-up demonstrated good battling qualities in their race to the line and with an overall reasonable standard of jumping along with a lack of hard luck stories, the form appears to be solid.

Peat Moss is this season's second winner from as many runners in this sphere for both trainer Nigel Hawke and sire Fracas. He had shown little on the flat and was disappointing last time out but his profile suggested that he could do better over hurdles. There was promise on his debut at Newton Abbot and while racing prominently cost him any real chance at Cartmel, a change in tactics and a strong pace set by the leader enabled him to realise his debut potential. A visor introduced at Lingfield was retained here and it likely helped him settle into a nice rhythm in the rear of the field. He has a neat and quiet way of going over his hurdles and while he is not the type to steal a couple of lengths in the air, his style does allow him to conserve energy. Closing on the leaders after the sixth, his run to the line was more a steady gallop than an explosive burst. Nevertheless, he was game in his effort and was able to get his nose in front in the shadow of the post. Peat Moss had previously never finished closer than seven lengths to a winner but he proved today that he is not averse to a battle. This marks a new career best although the race did pan out perfectly for him here and he might struggle under a penalty at this level. Nevertheless, while he probably lacks the scope of the runner up, he put in an honest performance and his better conditions and tactics are now more apparent. 105

Bourbali has a fantastic pedigree for the game and was only just denied a winning debut at the post. He looked calm and well beforehand and he travelled as well as anything from the outset. His jumping was fairly novicey in the early stages and was not entirely fluent at the final two flights. There was nothing alarming about his jumping and he put in some very good leaps in the middle of the race so while there is room for improvement, he already has a decent foundation. Bourbali looked the likeliest winner from some way out and traded as low as 1.08 in running. Much the best of those who raced prominently, he did not lack for willingness in the closing stages and ran straight and true up to the line. It was only really inexperience that cost him the race and he can emerge a fair deal better than this level. This was a most promising debut effort. 105

Treaty Of Dingle was another making her hurdling debut and put in a creditable performance first time. Following three successive seconds, she was claimed out of a Lingfield claimer at long odds-on. With her sex allowance taken into account, she came into the race with the highest flat rating. She was slightly keen early on but apart from a slightly awkward jump at the fourth, put in a decent round and kept on well enough to the line. While she did not quite match her flat standard here, she should be able to reach a similar level over jumps in due course. 92

Calidus Mirabilis had shown enough to suggest he can win a race of this nature during his first two runs in Ireland for Joseph O'Brien. However, his endurance is suspect which made the tactics employed today all the more baffling. Racing prominently is often advantageous in juvenile hurdles although to do so in an aggressive fashion requires completely assured stamina. He was still in the lead right up to the penultimate flight but was headed immediately afterwards and was beaten by over twelve lengths without being eased. Calidus Mirabilis is an adequate jumper but does lack fluency and as in previous outings, his hurdling did deteriorate once his tank began to empty. This outing was less a regression than a misuse of tactics as there was still evidence of his relative capabilities. He does need an easy test to show his best however and he may continue to disappoint in the absence of optimal conditions. 92

Prince Percy made a fair impression on his hurdling debut at Market Rasen back in July but had disappointed in the interim on the flat. He was backed into favouritism here but was pulled up between the final two flights which would make this the fifth time in his latest six starts that he has been unable to justify market support. He was keen early on and while he jumped well on his debut, was slightly slow at the third and got in close to the fifth and sixth before jumping his last flight slowly. He is obviously thought capable of better than this and there is a level over hurdles where he can be competitive. However, his current disposition does not inspire faith and while his being cast in his box during the summer was probably not too damaging, a session on a horse sized psychiatrist's couch might be helpful. 80

Lightning Bug's starting price of 150/1 was a fair reflection of her chances and while she managed to beat the other outsiders, she was a good dozen lengths off the leading quintet when coming to grief three from home. It was not a blunder that caused her demise, rather she crumpled on landing after the flight had been negotiated. While slightly awkward at a couple of her other jumps, it was not the worst round for a newcomer but she still has plenty to prove going forward. 0

Brown Eyed Girl's official flat rating of 51 looked steep for what she had actually achieved but she was bred to be better over hurdles and her trainer has a good record in this race. However, Brown Eyed Girl was keen early on but was already being ridden with a circuit left to run and would tail off before being pulled up three out. She may do better if she learns to settle and her jumping was fine apart from a slow jump at the first but there is nothing immediately promising about her future prospects. 0

Full Secret had shown a modicum of ability on the flat for Richard Fahey and was another representing a trainer whose charges have outran their odds in this race. However, she was even further detached from further out than Brown Eyed Girl and safe jumping aside, offered little encouragement. 0

LISTOWEL
Preview review
Longclaw was expected to win more comfortably than he did but while Scholastic hit 1.02 in running, she was never in front for any more than half a stride. Scholastic jumped considerably better than she had on her previous two starts which enabled her to close the margin between herself and the winner. At War's jumping was decent enough for him to outrun his odds while Little Brother was a little too headstrong to do himself justice. Made In Pimlico's effort was not expected but his trainer does get winners in the division and with him quickly pulling up halfway through his sole start this year, he was somewhat unexposed.

Race review
Today's race at Listowel lost a great deal of its interest when Duffle Coat was withdrawn this morning after reportedly being found sore. Nevertheless, it ended up being more competitive than originally anticipated. A pair of keen and free running horses ensured a solid tempo although the winning time was slowest by standard on the card as well as being slower than any of the previous renewals ran on similar ground. The standard of jumping was generally decent, especially by the first two home, and although the loose horse briefly involved herself in the back straight, there were no real hard luck stories. The first three home give the form a decent endorsement but it is diminished by the proximity of the 125/1 shot Made In Pimlico. In all, the race was a decent quality for the time of year but it looks unlikely to have a great influence on the season's better races.

Longclaw made it three from three and was made to battle for the first time in his hurdling career. He posted his best round of jumping to date and though he lost some momentum after getting in close to the last, was able to rally and fend off his persistent challenger. While the runner-up got very close to him, she was in receipt of seventeen pounds and her jumping had massively improved since her last appearance. The form is still as good as anything he has produced thus far and his demonstration of battling qualities entitles this performance to stand marginally as his best to date. With the exception of stablemate Duffle Coat, he stands nine pounds clear of the rest of Ireland's juveniles for the time being. However, he appears to be reaching the limits of his potential and unless the better types are slow to emerge, he may struggle once he forced to step up in class. 126

Scholastic is no better on the flat than her official mark of 70 at this juncture and her jumping left plenty to be desired coming into this race. However, apart from being slightly slow over the second, there was a considerable improvement in her hurdling here and she was on occasion very slick. She also displayed a good attitude in running to the line and was held by only a narrow margin. On this evidence, she is more than capable of winning a small race and her newfound zest for hurdling may provoke further improvement. Notwithstanding, she was still receiving plenty of weight from the winner and her form is still a long way from pattern class so her aspirations can only be limited for the time being. 109

At War is officially rated 75 on the flat but his recent efforts have not reflected that mark. He did not run to that level on his hurdling debut at Punchestown either but his jumping was good there and he replicated his proficiency again this afternoon. He was keen early and was running freely when extending his lead as he embarked on the second circuit. Nevertheless, his jumping was always slick and his first slight error came after he was impeded by the loose horse approaching the sixth. He was headed soon after but was still able to keep tabs on the leaders and it was only on entering the straight that the first two pulled clear of him. He will need to learn how to settle but he has the engine and the hurdling ability to be a problem at this standard. 105

Made In Pimlico had no right to be involved in the race based on his previous flat form and he got in close to several of his hurdles along the way here. He was pulled up quickly half way through his debut at Tipperary after apparently being hampered so was arguably unexposed in that regard. His trainer also managed two winners from three juvenile hurdlers last season which is an improvement on what he had achieved previously. Furthermore, Made In Pimlico was trying cheekpieces for the first time along with his tongue-tie which is another possible factor in his dramatic improvement. Strictly on this outing, he is capable of being competitive in moderate company but he would perhaps first need to demonstrate that this was not a fluke. 104

Little Brother was the other winner in the field but he had disappointed on his return to the flat and he did not quite match the form of his Bellewstown win here. Despite being a winner over hurdles, he has not been the best jumper and there were a few flights here where he was not entirely fluent. That he was rather headstrong did not help him either despite the reapplication of the cheekpieces he wore when winning on his penultimate start. Nevertheless, the form he has shown today is not too far off his best so there is no reason to suspect any severe regression and he would still be respected in lesser company. 108

Finsceal Blue was one of two racecourse debutants in the field but while his sire has a fair record in the division, he did not have the most compelling profile beforehand. Always towards the rear of the field, his jumping was not especially fluent in the early stages and he began to get detached before the field reached the back straight. It would not be difficult for him to improve on this effort but there was little immediate promise. 49

Social Distancing was the other racecourse debutant and her pedigree suggested that she would be neither sharp nor forward enough for this test. She jumped slowly and was detached early on in the race. She was completely tailed off when she fell at the last and there is nothing encouraging to be drawn from this performance. 0

Waterville Lady represented a trainer with a decent record in this race but she was not especially well supported in the market. She jumped to her right and unseated her rider at the second and was fairly wild when jumping loose over the next. 0

[Kotkijet]

Scotland's first juvenile hurdle of the season takes place tomorrow at Perth. Races at the venue do not usually take much winning as the average seasonal RPR of 110 for its victors attests. In terms of class, with Lucinda Russell's newcomer a possible exception, the standard of tomorrow's race looks no better than average. Nevertheless, three of the runners have winning flat form and two have been placed over hurdles so it looks far from a desperate contest. Perth is a flat track which while easy from a configuration perspective, can encourage more testing conditions when tactics are involved. The average winning DIs for juveniles are 1.46 mean and 1.12 median which are lower than those for all runners which stand at 1.49 and 1.32. While these figures are in keeping with the general stamina demands of the division, they are only marginally more testing than the average UK racecourse. The completion rate of 88.10% makes Perth a fairer than average racecourse for juvenile hurdlers.

Billy The Squid bg F O'Brien f3-0-0 (47) 34 j4-0-1 (107) 94 99
Requinto (American Post){19}(0.43) 2/1 Edylan 1st 5YO Conditions Hurdle, Angers 2019
After showing what was effectively nothing in three starts on the flat, Billy The Squid ran with only a modicum of promise on his hurdles debut at Market Rasen. Since then however, his jumping has improved with every run and his form is such that he would have twice finished runner up on his latest two starts but for a dramatic error at the last at Southwell which gave his jockey no chance of staying on board. He was a tired horse on that latest outing three weeks ago and it remains to be seen how that run will have affected his confidence. He also appears to be exposed as no better than a 100 rated animal, but he has been consistent recently and has shown enough to be competitive in this company.

Jan Wellens chg Olly Murphy f6-1-0 (63) 67
Dutch Art (Pivotal){6-e}(1.80) 4/2 Elusive Dream 1st Mersey Novices' Hurdle (G2), Aintree 2008
Jan Wellens had six starts on the flat in Ireland for Ger Lyons and was described by his former trainer as one that could be turned into a jumper after winning a Roscommon handicap on his penultimate start back in June. He looked green that day and he more ground out the victory rather than winning after an explosive burst but the second, third and fourth have since either won or been placed so it is fair form for the level. However, after being sent off as 6/4 favourite next time, he could only finish last in a Sligo handicap on his final start for the yard. He has since joined the Olly Murphy stable which has had three winners from fourteen juveniles and the improvement rate of 54.55% is respectable. Figures for those leaving the Ger Lyons yard are also respectable as his former inmates have a 25% winner to runner ratio and an improvement rate of 51.22%. Richard Johnson has a healthy 22% strike rate when teaming up with Olly Murphy although this mount is one of four he has on the card so it is not as though he has come up for the one ride. Jan Wellens is from the family of classy novice hurdler Elusive Dream but the only other jumper on the damline is the low-grade winner Virtus who is a half-brother to the granddam. The sirelines are even less encouraging for the discipline. Pivotal's 16.95% winner to runner rate as a damsire is acceptable if below average but the poor record of sire Dutch Art can not be understated. Only one of his fourteen juvenile hurdlers have won a race from forty-two starts and that came in March 2013 when Nicky Henderson's Little Dutch Girl won an atrocious fillies' race at Taunton at odds of 1/7f. This is not for a lack of quality flat form either as the only reason Dutch Art's improvement rate is 10% instead of 0% is that the 74 rated Aglaophonos finished second in a Ludlow juvenile in 2013. The best of Jan Wellens' flat form merely entitles him to be competitive at this level and given his sire's poor record in the discipline, the improvement needed for him to excel here is not especially likely. A reported preference for softer ground also goes against his favour in tomorrow's race.

Jorgie chg Jim Goldie f8-0-1 (51) 55
George Vancouver (Lahib){9}(1.67) 4/3 Megans Joy 1st Tipperary Hurdle (G2), Tipperary 2008
Jorgie is without a win in eight starts on the flat and his career best in that discipline was a neck second in a soft ground Musselburgh classified stakes on his first start for Jim Goldie three outings ago. The yard was able to win this race in 2009 with Tillietudlem but its other four runners were all well beaten at long odds. There are no notable jumpers on the immediate damline but the likes of Megans Joy (4/3), Happy Diva (4/4) and Embittered (4/5) do appear further back. Lahib has a respectable winners-to-runners rate of 27.78% as a damsire and though George Vancouver is without a winner from two juveniles in the UK, he has had three-year-old winners in France.

Le Magnifique chg Keith Dalgleish f3-0-1 (DeF) 50
Kamsin (Pentire){1-n}(0.88) 2/1 Loup de Mer 4th Grande Course de Haies de Pau (L), Pau 2010
After three starts on the continent for Andreas Wohler, Le Magnifique is set to make his UK debut tomorrow. The latest of those flat efforts came in a Hoppegarten maiden (brown silks, maroon cap) back in May. There he finished seven lengths behind Kellahen who would win his next three starts, including a Hanover listed contest, before finishing well beaten in the German Derby. The runner-up would go on to win a Munich listed race before finishing fifth in the German Derby while the third would take a pair of minor contests at Hamburg and Dusseldorf. It is difficult to measure the value of this form. Working from the front two who have achieved pattern class form, and the horse who finished just ahead of him who is currently rated 64, a mark in the mid-sixties might be a more appropriate assessment of his abilities than the RPR of 50 he earned last year at Saint Cloud. Three of the seven Andreas Wohler imports since 2008/09 have won as juvenile hurdlers although they all had demonstrably better form than Le Magnifique. A quarter of Keith Dalgleish's juvenile hurdlers have also been winners and he also took this prize in 2017 with Eneko who began his career in French bumpers. Kamsin has a respectable record as a sire of juveniles with a third of his runners, including the useful Adjali, winning on both sides of the channel. Le Magnifique's dam is a half-sister to a pair of useful jumpers in Loup de Mer and La Coquette along with 2007 Prix du Cadran winner Le Mirable. Champion Hurdler Punjabi also appears further back on the damline at 5/4. Le Magnifique does not have much in the way of flat form but his profile is such that he should be able to at least match whatever he has achieved in that discipline.

Red Missile bg Lucinda Russell f6-1-1 (80) 89
Battle Of Marengo (Notnowcato){4-m}(0.76) 2/1 Carry On Sydney 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Market Rasen 2014
Local trainer Lucinda Russell does not have the strongest record in the division as her winner to runner rate since 2008/09 is just 14.29% and the last of those winners came in April 2013. However, recent 38,000 guineas Tattersalls purchase Red Missile is her highest rated recruit in a decade and the form of his decisive five length win in a twelve-furlong Lingfield maiden has since been boosted. Third placed Ocean Wind completed a brace with a four-length victory in the Cesarewitch Trial off 89 and the seventh and eighth are also subsequent winners. William Haggas graduates, which include Cracker Factory, Park Paddocks and Prabeni, have above average figures in juvenile hurdles and 52.38% of them also show improvement for the switch between codes. Red Missile's pedigree is not inundated with jumpers but his dam is a half-sister to winning juvenile Carry On Sydney. Sire Battle Of Marengo's first crop of juveniles counted three winners from eight including Wensleydale Hurdle runner-up Maria Magdalena and Prix Alain du Breil fifth Pinaclouddown. The yard's recent form is not brilliant nor is her record in this particular race. However, two of her four winning juveniles since 2008/09 won at first time of asking and Red Missile's flat form is much the strongest seen in the division this season. While the Triumph Hurdle quote is probably premature, Red Missile looks most intriguing in the context of this contest.

Ten Thousand Stars chf Brian Ellison f7-1-1 (62) 69 j1-0-0 (-) 89 100
Toronado (Green Tune){1-n}(0.88) 2/1 Le Vagabond 3rd Juvenile Hurdle (G3), Fairyhouse 2015
Ten Thousand Stars was perhaps unlucky not to win on her hurdles debut at Sedgefield four weeks ago as she was carried off a true course by the winner and went down by just three-quarters of a length. The form of that race has since been well advertised as second placed Talking About You was an emphatic winner at Fontwell while the winner, Historic Heart, ran well to finish fourth in an open-aged handicap at the same venue. Ten Thousand Stars' jumping on her debut was not good and she was keen in the early stages although this was probably exacerbated by the slow early pace. Brian Ellison's record in juvenile hurdles since 2008/09 is much the best of all the trainers represented in this field and record of 27 winners from 75 runners is well above average. With a winner and a second from two participants, his record in this particular race is also decent. While his juveniles largely carry their debut form to their second outing, Ten Thousand Stars left plenty to improve on in the jumping department and as the standard of her first run is already compelling in the context of this race, she should provide a decent test for Lucinda Russell's newcomer.

Strong prospects
1. Red Missile
Reasonable prospects
2. Ten Thousand Stars
Feasible prospects
3. Le Magnifique
4. Billy The Squid
Moderate prospects
5. Jan Wellens
Negligible prospects
6. Jorgie

[Kotkijet]

A quick update on today's race. Lucinda Russell hit a treble yesterday and it escaped my attention that today’s juvenile hurdle is sponsored by Lucinda’s main yard sponsor. Whether anything can be read into that little factoid, I will leave to the reader.

Also, I made an error on Le Magnifique’s family number and DI information as they should read {5-h} and (0.54). Apologies for any inconvenience this may have caused.

[Kotkijet]

Preview review
The prospects list for today's race bore very little resemblance to the race result. The winner was given negligible prospects while the leading contender was a disappointment. Only the credo that Dutch Arts do not make juvenile hurdlers was maintained. Jorgie's victory was mostly a result of his jumping along with his being suited by the step up in trip in conjunction with his rivals underperforming in what was probably a weak contest. While his sire has had jumps winners in France, his winning siblings did so at sprint distances so there was no obvious reason to expect improvement beforehand. In all, it was most probably a rare case of a horse finding its best-case scenario in a poor field that allowed him to win.

Race review
With the potential exception of Red Missile, this looked like an ordinary contest at best beforehand that looks to be the case in hindsight. While there were no spectacular blunders, every horse in the field made numerous errors throughout. Only the winner put in a clear round until he lost concentration in the straight and by that stage, he had more than enough in reserve to repel his challengers. The runner-up dropped from a prominent position to struggling in the rear before finding his way back to the front in the closing stages. The third looked in trouble a long way from home while the fourth, who briefly went odds-on in-running, was representing a yard that is uncharacteristically struggling for winners. As such, the form looks neither strong nor particularly reliable.


Jorgie did not come into this race with strong claims after eight moderate runs on the flat without a win and was easy to back before the off. However, he ran out a decisive winner and would have won by further had a lack of concentration not cost him ground and momentum at the last two hurdles. He is related to good jumpers through his fourth dam but while he is a half-brother to two winners, both of them were sprinters. Sire George Vancouver was without any winning jumpers in the UK or Ireland but he has had a number of lower grade winners in France. Jorgie's best form on the flat came over nine furlongs on soft ground at Musselburgh which is the furthest he had been tried. He handled the trip here and was fit from a recent run at Ayr. Aside from his opponents either being poor or running below par, his jumping is what won him this race. He was fluent at every flight leading to the straight and while he was not so clean at the last two, he had more than enough in reserve to repel his challengers. This was a pleasing enough debut, but it was a race which worked out perfectly for him and while he can build on this effort, he may struggle to defy a penalty in anything but modest company. 102

Billy The Squid started off keen and the number of clean jumps were outnumbered by ones he got slightly wrong. He also went off the bridle and dropped to the rear although that is rather customary for him and he stayed on again towards the finish. But for unseating at the last at Southwell, this would have been the third race in succession that he finished runner-up so for all that he is no better than average, he is at least consistent. His official rating of 107 does not look generous and his pedigree, along with another tired jump at the last, do not suggest that he will find much for a step up in trip. Nevertheless, he can continue to run respectably over hurdles and his flat rating of 47 is looking rather lenient. 95

Red Missile was quoted for the Triumph Hurdle after being bought by Lucinda Russell at Tattersalls and his win in a Lingfield maiden looks even stronger than it did at the time after the runner-up subsequently won a nice handicap. However, any Triumph Hurdle aspirations are looking decidedly fantastical after today's performance. While he jumped the first two fine, he developed a tendency to wander towards and get in close to his hurdles and he was already being niggled along in the back straight. He did plug on again after the last but although his being pulled wide may have cost him ground, he never looked like winning. Based on his recent flat run, this can only be regarded as a disappointment but taken in isolation, this was not a bad introduction to his hurdles career. Red Missile clearly has an engine and perhaps with the reapplication of headgear, he can leave this effort behind. 94

Ten Thousand Stars did not put in the best round of jumping on her debut in a Sedgefield contest which has since worked out well. But while she got in close to a couple here and was hesitant at the fifth, her jumping was better as too was her travelling. After Jorgie made a blunder at the penultimate flight, she looked like she could capitalise and briefly went odds-on in-running. However, her effort was short lived and she would weaken to finish over eight lengths from the winner. While she bettered her debut effort from a mechanical perspective, this represented a slight regression from a form perspective. The yard has not been among the winners recently and he was not always the most consistent on the flat either, so she is still capable of better. 84

Jan Wellens had winning flat form for Ger Lyons in Ireland and he has joined a good jumping yard. However, his being by Dutch Art did not bode well for a hurdling career and he looked anything but a natural here. There were errors to some degree at all of his hurdles here and he never left the rear of the field. He might improve for the experience but there is lot of ground to make up and he is likely to struggle in the short term. 83

Le Magnifique was the most unexposed horse in the field as his only run this year came when down the field in a German maiden. Nevertheless, he has the pedigree to make a juvenile hurdler and was the best backed horse in the race. However, he sweated up beforehand and his hurdling was that of a green and inexperienced horse. He moved up from midfield to lead at halfway, but he was dropped quickly after three out and soon pulled up. He is clearly thought better than this and he may have suffered from a lack of fitness and experience, but he does currently have questions to answer.

[Kotkijet]

The matter of Jorgie's win today not being patently obvious beforehand is something which could haunt me for the rest of my days. It is possible that his proficient jumping first time out was "just one of those things" but those five words are an insult to the many hours spent researching this subject. So I had a look at every trainer who has sent a juvenile over hurdles since the 2009/10 season to see which ones have the most clear rounds. By clear rounds, I am counting each run that resulting in anything except for the charge falling, unseating or refusing.

During this time period, there have been 635 trainers whose juveniles have all remained upright but less than half of these had five or more runs. Nevertheless, there are some trainers who have maintained a 100% record with an impressive amount of runners. The top ten are in the table below and next to them are those with the most runs overall for comparison.



Who else do we see right among the top of the hundreds and hundreds of trainers represented in the division over the years? Why it is none other than Jorgie's trainer, Jim Goldie.

So there we have it. The mystery has been solved and we can all move on with our lives.

[Kotkijet]

Tomorrow’s contest at Market Rasen is traditionally the strongest in the division before October. The corresponding race was a seller in 2003 won by Quick who was bought in for 3,600 guineas ahead of a career which saw him place at the Cheltenham festival. With the exception of 2005, it has since been a Class 2 contest and carries a very respectable roll call. Katchit in 2006 was the most notorious winner when he overcame 4/9 favourite Is It Me before winning the Triumph and the Champion Hurdle. Other good winners include Barizan, Indian Groom, Leoncavallo, Royal Irish Hussar and Unanimite while Cliffs Of Dover, Franchoek, Fox Norton and Vosne Romanee finished placed in this contest before moving on to better things. This year's renewal looks well up to scratch as it features the UK's two highest rated juveniles to date - top three if the sex allowance is taken into consideration. Market Rasen offers one of the stiffer stamina tests for juvenile hurdlers and the emphasis on same is even greater for this particular race. The average winning DIs are 0.97 mean and 1.00 median, significantly lower than those for the average participant which stand at 1.58 and 1.40 respectively. In terms of completion rates, the Lincolnshire venue is ranked fortieth of the sixty-three racecourses used for juvenile hurdle races since 2009/10 but ranked twenty-fifth for fallers and unseats so while the track takes some getting, it is fairer from a jumping perspective. Four of tomorrow’s participants have led in hurdle races this season so a solid gallop looks likely despite the small field size.

Soldier On Parade bg A Murphy f8-0-1 (65) 68 j3-2-1 (117) 112 116
Dunaden (Mujadil){1-u}(4.60) 2/1 Out Of Control 1st Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2009
The highest rated gelded juvenile hurdler in the UK, Soldier On Parade has not been seen in public since completing a double at this venue nearly six weeks ago. On the basis of his debut second at Bangor behind Hiconic, he was entitled to win the first leg of the double and he did so comfortably from a field which has not since achieved a great deal. He had to work harder to earn his latest victory but that did look a stronger contest beforehand and the third and the fifth have since won races of their own. A fair and consistent type on the flat, Soldier On Parade has shown himself to be better over hurdles and while his jumping is not always fluent, it has been enough to put his rivals under the cosh. He also has a useful turn of foot which he employs half a mile from home to telling effect. This acceleration was also seen at Bangor on his but it was not enough to fend off Hiconic and he is now a pound worse off at the weights. Soldier On Parade does have the experience around Market Rasen and his trainer is still in decent form. There is no obvious reason for him to reverse placings with Hiconic and there will be competition for the lead but he should be able to give a solid account of himself.

Hiconic bf A Hales f8-0-3 (58) 60 j4-4-0 (128) 115 121
Sixties Icon (Acclamation){1-n}(0.60) 1/0 Hi Note 2nd 4YO Hurdle, Cheltenham 2012
Hi Note finished second in the 2011 edition of this contest and her daughter bids to go one better in tomorrow's renewal. Hiconic comes into the race with a perfect four from four record in hurdle races and she has impressed in her jumping and manner of victories. She has not exactly been the embodiment of perfection as she does have a tendency to wander on occasion and her latest win at Newton Abbot was a slight regression on her Stratford form. Nevertheless, Newton Abbot is probably not a course which plays to her strengths and she is very intelligent whenever she does make an error. Hiconic already has victories over her two main rivals and as well as being weighted to maintain that superiority, she also holds Soldier On Parade on his Market Rasen win through Bannister and Kings Creek. She was a beaten favourite when going down by half a length in a Lingfield handicap two weeks ago but she is better over hurdles and she will be fit for that outing. If she runs to her best, she has upwards of ten pounds on her rivals and will be happy to sit off a lead that a couple of these are likely to present.

Poker Master bg Philip McBride f2-0-0 (-) 56 j1-0-0 (-) 66 77
Sepoy (Mastercraftsman){4-i}(3.00) 3/3 Hipsters 1st Prix Go Ahead (L), Auteuil 2019
Poker Master had achieved little in two flat outings at Newmarket or Wolverhampton and was sent off at 66/1 for his hurdles bow at Fontwell. He is related to some capable stayers and hurdlers on the damline and damsire Mastercraftsman is one of the best stallions in the sphere, although Sepoy is still without a winner from forty hurdles runs. Poker Master's jumping was decent enough on his debut but he was beaten over thirty lengths by Talking About You and while he could be competitive in moderate company, this standard of competition looks well beyond him.

Utopian Lad bg David Loughnane f11-0-5 (64) 71 j1-0-0 (-) 58 54
Society Rock (Amadeus Wolf){1-p}(2.43) 2/1 Go Figure 1st Handicap Hurdle (94), Perth 2007
Finishing second or third in his last eight runs on the flat, Utopian Lad came into his debut at Uttoxeter with a consistent profile and that standard of form is as good as anything in this field from that sphere. However, while he does not appear to be ungenuine, he has shown signs of greenness which manifested dramatically at the Staffordshire venue. He wandered slightly into the first but was much wilder approaching the second and was lit up for a while afterwards. His jumping did improve, he was clever at the sixth and he still had the lead turning in. However, he was a spent force by that stage and his jumping deteriorated rapidly. He can count decent jumpers in his pedigree (4/4 Gardens Of Babylon, 5/3 Mister McGoldrick, 5/3 Modicum) and the yard won a juvenile hurdle last season at this venue with Yellow Tiger. There was enough on his debut run to suggest he can do better but that was one of the poorest races staged this season thus he will do very well to get competitive in this company.

Talking About You bf Sean Curran f6-0-1 (60) 60 j3-1-2 (103) 95 105
Sixties Icon (Mastercraftsman){9-h}(0.50) 3/1 Princess Caerani 2nd Mares' Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2014
Talking About You improved, albeit to a moderate level, when second in a claimer on her last start on the flat for Mick Channon and her sirelines are very apt for success in the division. However, she was an absolute nightmare during the preliminaries ahead of her hurdling debut behind Hiconic at Newton Abbot (eighteen pounds worse here) and jumped sloppily throughout. It is to her credit she finished five lengths third and she improved again next time at Sedgefield where she was mounted at the last possible moment. Her jumping still left much to be desired and her wandering on the run-in cost her the chance to capitalise on her drifting rivals. Nevertheless, she was able to fulfil much of her potential last time at Fontwell where she was allowed to lead and with her mostly proficient jumping, essentially had the race won before leaving the back straight. She was an emphatic winner although she did stop quickly when eased close to the finish which suggests that there was not a great deal left in reserve. Notwithstanding, this was by far a career best effort and she could improve further now that connections will have a better idea of her optimal tactics although she may struggle to get an uncontested lead in this field.

Outstanding prospects
1. Hiconic
Reasonable prospects
2. Soldier On Parade
3. Talking About You
Moderate prospects
4. Utopian Lad
Negligible prospects
5. Poker Master

[Kotkijet]

Preview review
By giving Hiconic outstanding prospects, anything but a win would have been an overestimation. While I mentioned in her Triumph Hurdle assessment that she had likely hit a plateau, I did not account for the possibility that Soldier On Parade could further improve which proved to be the case. Her regression at Newton Abbot and the tendencies she had shown both there and at Lingfield were also given less consideration than were due. Notwithstanding, apart from the reversal of the first two, the field finished as expected.

Race review
Today's race looked the strongest of the season beforehand and it produced the outstanding performance seen to date. There was a strong pace set although the winning time was slower than than the two other races ran at the distance on the card. Nevertheless, a rudimentary assessment of the early pace put it in line with that set in the feature handicap and accounting for weight for age, the winner posted a good and solid time for the class. While Hiconic veered at the start of the race, it was not enough to affect the result and with the field finishing the way they did, there is little reason to question the reliability of the form.

Solider On Parade won two races at this venue prior to a six week break and he came back better than ever. Electing to track the leader rather than make the running himself, he travelled well with the pace turning for home and ran on strongly when given firm encouragement to win his race. His hurdling is not of the highest standard but it is enough for him at this level and apart from steadying slightly into the first, he put in a clean round here. He has earned the right to take in a race like the Wensleydale although there looks to be a strong crop of recruits for the division this season so he may begin to struggle as the better types begin to appear. Nevertheless, this was still the best performance seen this season and he is due full credit for what he achieved this afternoon. 132

Hiconic had been a revelation over the summer but her winning run came to an end as she echoed her dam by finishing second in this race. Her best performance was when she won at Stratford giving seven pounds and an eight length beating to subsequent winner Bannister. She was less impressive on her latest win at Newton Abbot where she was less straightforward than usual and there were questionable elements to her recent outing on the flat at Lingfield. Today she veered as the tapes flew up and was never travelling as well as she can at her best. Her hurdling was not as good either as she got in close to the first two and was untidy at the fifth before completing her round with a couple of tired jumps. This effort was much more in line with her performance at Newton Abbot than at Stratford. Her four wins disqualify her from ordinary races and as her rating of 128 looks steep, she might be difficult to place from hereon. There is the Fillies' Juvenile at Aintree's Becher meeting for which she will be unpenalised as well as a mares' novice at Taunton at the end of December where she can receive a weight allowance along with several more in the new year. If those such races are poorly subscribed then she may be able to collect some black type but regardless of what happens next, she has still been a cracking horse this summer. 114

Talking About You has been known to give trouble at the start and while she has been better recently, her recalcitrant ways were resumed here. She did set off after being trotted in and soon set a brisk gallop while being closely followed by the winner. Her hurdling was not terrible but she did get in very close to the second and while she stood off at the fourth, her jumping deteriorated as she tired markedly towards the end. Talking About You does not appear to have the stamina for much beyond the minimum trip but she can defy a penalty with an easy lead in a weak contest. If she behaves herself, she is also on a fair mark if connections elect to send her handicapping. 89

Utopian Lad effectively ruined his chances at Uttoxeter when he was lit up after some wayward jumping early on. While he did slightly veer left at the first, he was temperamentally better here even if he was still untidy in his jumping. He is another who finished tired and although this was an improvement on his debut effort, he did not exactly set himself a high marker. There has been enough promise to see him be competitive off a low enough rating but he is unlikely to achieve much in open company for the time being. 84

Poker Master was beaten over thirty lengths by Talking About You at Fontwell but his jumping was respectable if nothing else. However, his jumping was very poor here and after never leaving last position, was virtually pulled up in the end. 48

[Istabraq]

Yet another one you called bang on Kotkijet, great stuff, keep it up...

[Kotkijet]

Cheers Istabraq. With luck, I can get the entire field in the correct order with one of these...

There will be two juvenile hurdles and a handicap featuring a juvenile hurdler on Tuesday.

Sedgefield hosts its second juvenile hurdle of the season on Tuesday and sees the return of a couple of horses who contested the track's first such race at the end of last month. It will also see the first juveniles of the season for trainers Donald McCain and John Quinn who have above average records in this discipline as well as at the County Durham venue. Races at Sedgefield are among the easiest to win in the country from a class perspective but they take some getting nonetheless. Ranked forty-eighth of sixty-three for clear rounds, the track provides a stern jumping test and only Southwell has a lower completion rate in the UK. The field features four horses who achieved flat RPRs exceeding seventy and looks to be a competitive race although unless there is an outstanding winner, it may not have much bearing on future events outside of its class. The ground is currently expected to be good.

Douglas Fir bg Russell Ross f1-0-0 (-) 44 j1-0-0 (-) 26 30
Australia (Danehill Dancer){14-c}(0.75) 2/1 Rocky Wednesday 3rd Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Fairyhouse 2011
By Australia and out of a half-sister to a couple of winners, Douglas Fir does not want for encouragement in his pedigree. However, on his return from an eleven month break, he finished completely tailed off at this venue on his first start since leaving Mark Johnson. He was understandably fresh but he also jumped slowly and while he can improve on that run, it still leaves him with an enormous amount to find in this company.

Genever Dragon bg D McCain f10-0-2 (62) 71
Dragon Pulse (Red Clubs){1-w}(1.29) 3/1 Staunch Rival 2nd Handicap Chase (124), Sandown 1995
Genever Dragon ran ten times on the flat for Tom Dascombe without winning. While he finished second in a Newcastle nursery over a mile last November, he has not matched that form in three starts this season. Thirty-four horses have left the Tom Dascombe yard for a juvenile hurdling campaign and six of those won in their new vocation with 42.31% improving for the switch in codes. Four made the short trip to Cholmondeley including Cuban Piece who won a Bangor Maiden in 2011. Donald McCain has a respectable record in the sphere with a well above average 32.95% winners to runners ratio. His improvement rate of 35.09% is less reassuring considering that his charge likely needs to step up on what he has achieved on the flat. Dragon Pulse's strike rate with juvenile hurdlers is just 2.86% and while the granddam was a half-sister to the decent Staunch Rival, the only other jumper in the immediate damline was Tsaroxy who was winless in four moderate outings. The yard has sent four winners and six seconds to Sedgefield from seventeen but there are others in the field with more substantial profiles.

Kings Creek bg Iain Jardine f5-0-0 (62) 65 j2-0-0 (102) 95 103
Elusive Quality (Indian Ridge){1-l}(3.24) 2/1 Point Of Origin 1st Hcp Chase (86), Huntingdon 2004
Kings Creek has the most hurdling experience in the field having twice finished fourth in the discipline for Alan King. He was beaten over fourteen lengths by Hiconic at Stratford but finished closer to Soldier On Parade at Market Rasen in mid-August. He jumped fine on his debut but was not as clean when going a steadier pace in the early stages last time. This suggests that he is a better hurdler when going a sound gallop but the downside is that he does not look a resolute stayer. He has since joined Iain Jardine after fetching £12,500 at Goffs' UK September sale. The yard has had two winning juveniles from fourteen but while Kings Creek can hold his own in moderate company, he is not an obvious improver and his lack of stamina will make him vulnerable here.

Magna Moralia grg John Quinn f10-2-3 (74) 81
Gregorian (Singspiel){1-h}(0.87) 0.5 Speed Company 1st Handicap Hurdle (119), Chepstow 2019
John Quinn is one of the leading trainers of juvenile hurdlers by all metrics. His winner to runner rate is 40.38% his overall strike rate is 25% and his improvement rate is a very healthy 63.89%. His record in Sedgefield juveniles is also impressive with four winners and a second from nine runners. His first juvenile hurdler of the season is set to be dual flat winner Magna Moralia. Magna Moralia's first win came last year in a Beverley median auction stakes on good to firm and he doubled his tally at the beginning of August in an eleven furlong Hamilton handicap on soft ground. There he had to overcome all manner of traffic issues and looked a most unlikely winner but was able to stay on and snatch victory right at the post. The form of that race has worked out well with the next six horses finishing in first or second in either of their next two starts. He has not been able to follow up in two subsequent starts, finishing second of three at Ripon and sixth of nine back at Hamilton where he was held when getting snatched up a furlong out. Gregorian is winless from three juvenile hurdlers but they were all at least a stone inferior to Magna Moralia and his sire Clodovil has a 25% winners to runners rate in the division. Magna Moralia is a half-brother to winning hurdler Speed Company and his damsire has a fair record in the sphere, counting Kasakh Noir and Cracker Factory among his mares' offspring. Magna Moralia sets the standard on flat form and has an appealing profile overall. If there is a caveat, Magna Moralia does not have the most fetching head carriage and while John Quinn's 'clear round' figure of 94.3% is reasonable, it is still the second lowest of the trainers represented in this race. Confidence would be higher but for these factors but he is still an interesting recruit to the sphere.

North Point bg Oliver Greenall f6-0-2 (70) 72
Norse Dancer (Montjeu){19}(0.83) 2/2 Star Maker 130 1st Handicap Hurdle (B,123), Killarney 2019
Winless in six starts on the flat for David Elsworth, North Point finished placed on a couple of occasions and brings an official rating of 70. He joined Oliver Greenall after changing hands for 22,000gns at the Tattersalls Horses-In-Training sale in August. His two runs this season came in a pair of ten furlong handicaps and his tepid efforts saw his mark drop five pounds as a result. Juveniles formerly trained by David Elsworth do not have the most appealing record in the sphere with only two winners from twenty-two runners and an improvement rate of just 13.33%. Oliver Greenall's record of four winners from twenty-one is roughly average but he did have a double yesterday. Furthermore, he is the leading trainer in the UK and Ireland for clear rounds with juvenile hurdlers so there will be little cause for concern with regards to jumping. Norse Dancer has had a couple of winning juveniles although his overall rate is below average and his improvement rate of 10% is also poor. Montjeu's record as a damsire is more appealing however and he is related to winners Snoqualmie Chief and Star Maker. North Point's profile is patchy and as none of the yard's four winners to date in the sphere did so at the first time of asking, he may improve for the experience. Nevertheless, as he is likely to jump and stay, he can not be ruled out entirely.

Sans Logique bg David Pipe f5-1-2 (80.3) j1-0-0 (-) 96 104
Toronado (Whipper){22}(0.75) 0.5 No Thanks 6th Novices Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2020
After finishing second in a Vichy claimer for Fabrice Vermeulen, Sans Logique changed hands for €15,001 ahead of his debut at this course last month. Sent off the 11/10 favourite, he made much of the running but while he increased the tempo in the back straight, was never able to burn off his rivals and looked in trouble with half a mile left to race. He kept on for fourth and the subsequent form of that race is reasonable with the winner running with credit in a handicap and the runner-up taking a race at Fontwell. Sans Logique is typically a keen sort and he is to be tried in tongue-tie and cheekpieces here while retaining the services of Tom Scudamore. He sets a reasonable standard on his course form although he will be accompanied in the horsebox by To Fly Free who runs in a later handicap. Based on the yard's history with ex-French flat horses, there is a suspicion that he may be seen to better effect in that discipline.

Spit It Out bg Susan Corbett f6-0-0 (46) 48
Swiss Spirit (Sinndar){1-e}(2.43) 3/2 Pintanera 3rd 3yo Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2006
Spit It Out has never finished closer than ten lengths to the winner in six flat starts and was well beaten off low marks in a pair of handicaps this month at Musselburgh and Newcastle. Damsire Sinndar is a quality stallion in the division and Susan Corbett charges improve more often than not for switching to hurdles but Spit It Out has plenty on his plate here.

The Trendy Man bg Liam Bailey f12-1-0 (47) 52 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Dandy Man (Dubai Destination){5-h}(1.15) 3/1 Karshi 1st Stayers Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 1997
The Trendy Man managed to win a handicap at Beverley for David O'Meara although that was off just 46 and he unseated at the third on his hurdling debut at Southwell. He has since joined a yard having its first runner in juvenile hurdles.

Strong prospects
1. Magna Moralia
Reasonable prospects
2. Sans Logique
3. North Point
Feasible prospects
4. Kings Creek
5. Genever Dragon
Negligible prospects
6. The Trendy Man
7. Spit It Out
8. Douglas Fir

Punchestown's second juvenile hurdle of the season takes place on Tuesday, and is only the second such event to be held at the track in September in almost sixteen years. Typically a racecourse which hosts the finest races in the division, Tuesday's being a maiden ran in September rather tempers the quality of the field. None of the fresh flat form looks up to much but some of the best placed form will be represented and a couple of racecourse debutants certainly pique the interest. The average winning DIs of 1.00 median and 1.26 mean are lower than those of the average runner which stand at 1.27 and 1.54 which along with seconds per furlong times, indicate that the track offers a solid stamina test. That it ranks forty-sixth on the 'clear round' table also suggests that good jumping is an important asset. The ground is forecast to be riding as good.

Bigz Belief bg Matthew J Smith f9-0-0 (51) 61 j1-0-0 (-) 99 96
Make Believe (Falco){3-d}(2.00) 2/1 Camouflage 4th Maiden Hurdle, Navan 2007
Bigz Belief never raced beyond a mile on the flat where he registered only fair from in nine flat outings. He was sent off at 66/1 on his hurdling debut at this venue three weeks ago but while he was beaten twenty-seven lengths in the end, he was still leading just before turning for home. It was not a run devoid of promise and there is scope for improvement in the jumping department but he has plenty of ground to make up and his stamina is not assured.

Craic Eile bg David Kenneth Budds f7-0-1 (55) 50
Palavicini (Invincible Spirit){1-k}(0.63) 0.5 Elysian Plains 1st 3-Y-O Hurdle, Killarney 2018
Craic Eile has had seven starts on the flat and on six of those occasions, he achieved next to nothing. However, he finished third to Scholastic at Tramore three outings ago at 125/1 which saw his handicap mark jump nineteen pounds. His new rating was enough to see him beaten nearly seventy lengths in two soft ground handicaps and he now turns his attention to hurdling. A half-brother to winning juvenile Elysian Plains, the likes of Echo Park (2/1), Lake Champlain (3/2) and Modus (5/4) can also be found on the damline. However, sire Palavicini has yet to have any winners over hurdles or beyond nine furlongs on the flat the trainer is also without a win from five runs in the sphere.

Finsceal Blue bg W J Austin j1-0-1 (-) 41 49
Finsceal Fior (Azamour){3-l}(1.09) 6/5 Sadler's Risk 1st Star Chase (G3), Punchestown 2016
Unraced on the flat, Finsceal Blue found himself getting detached with a circuit left to run on his debut at Listowel. His sire has done well with limited opportunities in the sphere but there was very little promise first time.

Gold Coast chg Miss Ellmarie Holden Unraced
Galileo (Elnadim){21-a}(0.78) 5/4 Piedmont 1st Steeple-Chase, Baden-Baden 2008
Ellmarie Holden has sent out four juvenile hurdlers since 2008/09 with three of them winning including Ex Patriot who did so on his hurdling debut. Gold Coast was initially trained by Aiden O'Brien but he never saw the racecourse for Coolmore. Out of a sister to the dam of useful Australian sprinter Zousain, Gold Coast has very little in the way of jumpers on his damline. Galileo is the outstanding stallion of his generation on the flat but while he gets the occasional high class hurdler, his record in this sphere is no better than average. Furthermore, none of his seven juveniles who went straight over hurdles were able to collect any prizemoney, let alone wins. Damsire Elnadim's record in this division is also fruitless. Gold Coast is an interesting recruit for his very capable trainer but the statistics are not in his favour.

Jeff Kidder bg Noel Meade f7-1-2 (68) 73 j1-0-1 (-) 120 114
Hallowed Crown (Rail Link){1-l}(0.71) no jumps relatives
Jeff Kidder made a promising start to his hurdling career when second to Longclaw in the season's curtain raiser at Roscommon in the beginning of August. His jumping there was respectable and while he was no match for the winner, he shaped as though a sterner test would suit. He since returned to the flat and stayed on best of all to win a heavy ground twelve furlong Bellewstown handicap off 65. He showed good acceleration turning in and there was no questioning his stamina. However, he did not need to improve much to win that race and he did not look entirely straightforward in doing so. Jeff Kidder does bring a good standard of form but he may be vulnerable if he is put under pressure.

Lucky Fella bg Gordon Elliott Unraced
Yorgunnabelucky (Hernando){6-e}(0.80) 0.5 Must See The Doc 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Newton Abbot 2019
Gordon Elliott won Punchestown's first juvenile hurdle of the season with a racecourse debutant and his sole representative here is of the same ilk. Like Duffle Coat, Lucky Fella is also a half brother to a winning juvenile although the former's sibling Starchitect was a rung or two above Must See The Doc. Yorgunnabelucky is without a win in eleven juvenile hurdles as a sire but damsire Hernando's record is more respectable with a winners to runners rate of 32.14%. There is a chance that the yard might strike twice but there are rivals whose experience will make it a difficult task.

Varna Gold chg Paul John Gilligan f11-0-3 (69) 72 j2-0-1 (-) 87 106
Shooting To Win (Efisio){5-e}(1.67) 3/2 Najaf 2nd Spa Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2010
While Varna Gold is a fair maiden handicapper on the flat, he is also rather exposed and inconsistent. He showed up briefly before fading on his hurdling debut at Ballinrobe but though his finishing position was flattering due to the wrath of Scholastic, he put up a better effort when second behind Longclaw at Down Royal. His jumping was still rather slow but it did improve from his first outing and he is capable of running to a fair level at his best. Even then however, he would still have something to find with a few of these.

Yulong Voice bbg Shane Nolan f9-1-1 (71) 78 j2-0-1 (-) 104 106
Poet's Voice (Refuse To Bend){1-e}(1.00) 2/1 Dariak 4th Galway Hurdle (122), Galway 2008
A winner of a Bellewstown maiden last year for Jessica Harrington, Yulong Voice finished behind Varna Gold when last of three finishers at Down Royal on his jumps debut. A half-brother to a winning hurdler with a damline which features the likes of Forth Bridge (3/3), Shaneshill (4/2) and Darlan (4/2), Yulong Voice is bred for the game and has shown himself to be a reasonable hurdler. He improved on his debut outing when fifth here last time and he may appreciate the quicker ground forecast for Tuesday. He has yet to show that he can match the two form principles but he is going in the right direction.

Rock Chica bf Thomas Mullins f6-0-0 (38) 40
Rock Of Gibraltar (Bahri){1-l}(1.86) 2/1 Chica Buena 1st Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed), Aintree 2018
Rock Chica's flat rating of 38 is not generous based on what she has achieved and although the stable has won juvenile hurdles with horses rated lower than 60 on the flat, a win here would set a new benchmark for the yard. The records of Rock Of Gibraltar and Bahri in the sphere are above average and the dam is a half-sister to the decent Chica Buena. Nevertheless, the flat form is still very poor and she was taken out of two races in June on account of unsuitably quick ground (yielding).

Scholastic bf Joseph Patrick O'Brien f12-3-0 (70) 66 j3-0-2 101 109
Zoffany (Sadler's Wells){5-b}(0.63) 1/1 Severus Alexander 4th Handicap Hurdle (102), Leopardstown 2020
After losing her jockey following a mid-air collision in the early stages of her hurdling debut at Down Royal, Scholastic embarked on a reign of chaos which saw her eliminate three of her rivals. Next time at Punchestown, she did everything but fall at the first but while she still lacked some fluency, it was a better round overall and she was still in contention until reaching the last. Scholastic took a leap forward on her latest start at Listowel last Sunday where her jumping was actually slick on occasion before pushing Longclaw all the way to the line. While she was in receipt of seventeen pounds from the winner, she surpassed anything she achieved when winning three times on the flat. Scholastic returns to Punchestown where she will appreciate the faster ground and has shown more resolve than Jeff Kidder. Provided she shows no signs of fatigue for a busy schedule, she ought to be difficult to beat.

Valley Of Dreams chf N Dooly f7-0-0 (35) 45
Dream Ahead (Raven's Pass){14-f}(0.71) 2/1 Gilded Age 6th Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2010
Apart from a fourteen length eighth of twelve on her last start for Cormac Farrell in February, Valley Of Dreams' form figures are comprised of duck eggs. Her official mark of 35 looks stiff for what she has shown this summer when she started at triple figure prices in five starts. Dream Ahead's strike rate in the sphere is just 5.88% and Raven's Pass has yet to produce a winner as a damsire.

Strong prospects
1. Scholastic
Reasonable prospects
2. Jeff Kidder
3. Yulong Voice
Feasible prospects
4. Lucky Fella
5. Varna Gold
Moderate prospects
6. Gold Coast
7. Bigz Belief
Negligible prospects
8. Craic Eile
9. Rock Chica
10. Finsceal Blue
11. Valley Of Dreams

[Kotkijet]

16:45 Sedgefield 2m1f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle
To Fly Free bf David Pipe f6-1-1 (72.6) 79 j2-0-2 (98) 92 100
Soldier Hollow (Canford Cliffs){19-b}{0.57) 3/1 Video Tape 2nd Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil 1985
While To Fly Free competed in claiming company in France, she was bought at Arqana for €6,000 from the Ludovic Gadbin yard. Paricolor and Night Edition were other transfers between the two yards - the former winning on his handicap debut on his fourth outing for David Pipe and the latter winning a maiden on his third attempt before finishing runner-up in the Fred Winter. To Fly Free was very weak in the market ahead of her UK/hurdling debut at Cartmel and while she made good headway along the woodside, would fade tamely to finish a twenty-three length third. She was better next time at Market Rasen however, staying on to split subsequent winners Soldier On Parade and Historic Heart. Historic Heart ran respectably off a mark of 110 at Fontwell following his Sedgefield win and To Fly Free looks fairly treated on that basis alone. David Pipe's record with three-year-olds in open aged handicaps is two wins from twenty runners since 2012. However, that record takes a different shape when we revisit the assessment of those who ran on the flat in France.


*nb Paricolor actually won his first two handicaps including one at Sedgefield.

While I am not in a position to comment on the quality of this race or To Fly Free's specific chances, in isolation, she appears to have a solid profile and she should not be let down by poor jumping or a lack of stamina.

[Kotkijet]

Huntingdon's first juvenile hurdle of the season takes place on Wednesday and eight of the ten declarations will be making their hurdling debuts. Winners of juveniles at the racecourse have an average seasonal RPR of 118 which is roughly standard for the UK. Nevertheless, it has attracted good types over the years with the likes of Walkon, Starluck and Nordano winning races held before December. Huntingdon is something of an anomaly in that while it is a fast and flat track with quick seconds per furlong figures, the winning DIs (1.00 median compared to 1.33 for the average runner) indicate that it still places demands on stamina. Notwithstanding, the likes of Compton Place, Invincible Spirit and Bushranger have all sired winning juveniles here suggesting that a blend of speed and stamina is a useful attribute. Only one of the two with hurdling experience has shown worthwhile form and although a couple of the flat recruits have some useful form, the field rather lacks for strength in depth.

Asharann bg Oliver Greenall f6-1-1 FrF (80.3) 73
Zoffany (Linamix){16-a}(0.87) 0.5 Ashutor 1st Handicap Chase (132), Fontwell 2020
Running in the colours of the Aga Khan under the care of Jean-Claude Rouget, Asharann raced six times on the flat, winning one race in the process. That victory came when landing the odds in a colts and geldings maiden at Cagnes Sur Mer over an extended seven furlongs back in February. Under a smooth ride from Christophe Soumillon, Asharann hit the front with a furlong to go and got the best of two separate battles to have his nostril in front on the line. While the third has developed into a useful 92.4 rated handicapper, there is not much to say of the others in behind with the best of them subsequently rated no higher than 71.5. He was beaten ten lengths on his next outing over a mile at Bordeaux but the form is not too bad as the winner has since finished fourth in a Group 3, the runner-up finished eighth in the same class and the third won a listed race at Toulouse on his next start. However, his form has been of a much lower standard in his two races since a spring break. Beaten nearly twenty-three lengths at Salon de Provence on his return in May, he pulled extremely hard when his sights were lowered for a conditions race at Dax in the middle of June. There he finished seventh and the first two have each been beaten in claiming company. He subsequently sold for €9,000 at the Arqana sales to join the Oliver Greenall yard. Oliver Greenall's other import from French flat races was Zalvados and while he failed to win in five starts as a juvenile, he did finish second in the Victor Ludorum and third in the two-mile handicap at the Grand National meeting. Zalvados cost nearly three times the amount Asharann fetched and while the Rouget stable has been the source of some very good juveniles over the years (Petite Parisienne, Brampour, Kazlian), his horses only have a 17.39% improvement rate. Asharann's best flat form is still as good as anything brought to this field and his new trainer, who won a juvenile at Huntington last April, is bound to have his charge well-schooled. Zoffany (Sir Psycho, Lord Justice, Zig Zag) gets more than his fair share of winners in the sphere and Linamix (Peace And Co, Diakali, Thunder Zone) has the best record of the damsires represented here. There is further encouragement on the damline as he is a half-brother to the useful summer jumper Ashutor, his dam is a half-sister to the dam of good French 3yo hurdler Chaptal and the aforementioned Kazlian can be found further back at 5/3. Asharann does have to overcome a decline in form and the yard's juveniles usually come on for the run but he still makes plenty of appeal on his profile.

Calidus Mirabilis bg Amy Murphy f12-2-1 (68) 75 j4-0-1 (109) 108 109
Hot Streak (Oasis Dream){4-j}(1.50) 4/5 La Limagne 1st Prix Tanerko Handicap Hurdle, Auteuil 2018
Amy Murphy’s juveniles continued to impress on Saturday as Soldier On Parade put up the best performance in the division of the season. In Calidus Mirabilis, her 17,000 guineas recruit from the Joseph O'Brien yard, she ought to have another useful addition to her ranks but he once again disappointed on his UK debut at Plumpton ten days ago. Twice a winner on the flat, he gives no reason to suspect that he is ungenuine but he almost certainly has stamina issues which is why it was no surprise that he faded badly after setting a strong pace last time out. The best of his hurdles efforts are more than ample to make him competitive at this level and as he has been seen to hang right, the first time application of blinkers may be beneficial in preserving his energy. Nevertheless, none of Amy Murphy's twenty-nine horses tried in first time blinkers have been winners and it remains to be seen if there is any stamina test over hurdles which is within his capacity.

Crazy Love bf Sheena West f4-0-0 (45) 46
Sixties Icon (Piccolo){3-l}(0.71) 2/0 Keeping The Faith 2nd Juvenile Hurdle, Cheltenham 1997
Crazy love earned an official rating of 47 after three runs over the winter but that proved to be too steep as she finished an eight length ninth in a ten furlong Lingfield handicap in June. She has since left Mick Channon to join Sheena West who has an above average record in the sphere and won this race in 2011 with Alfraamsey. Crazy Love's new trainer has won juvenile hurdles with eight horses rated lower than 60 with two of them rated just 45. One of those was another Sixties Icon who has had another fine season in the division. Crazy Love's granddam was placed in a Cheltenham juvenile in 1997 and is a half-sister to the useful Mystical City. She still has a mountain to climb on form and damsire Piccolo has a bad record in the sphere but given her connections and the remainder of her breeding, a place effort cannot be ruled out entirely.

Donald Llewellyn bg Gary Moore f5-0-0 (50) 53
Pivotal (New Approach){8-d}(1.61) 2/1 Movie Set 1st Selling Hurdle, Fakenham 2019
Gary Moore's winners to runners rate of 40.63% is the best in this field and like Sheena West, he can also get wins in the division from lower rated animals. This is useful for Donald Llewellyn as he is officially rated just 50 on the flat although he did run into his best finishing position when fifth at Lingfield on his latest run. However, the yard is not in its best spell of form at the moment and their last winner was sent out a fortnight ago. Pivotal gets more than his share of success in the division although that is generally with higher rated horses. While there are minor jumps winners on the damline, his yard would perhaps want to be enjoying better form before Donald Llewellyn is able to explore his potential.

Dutch Admiral chg David Bridgwater 4-0-1 (83) 80 j2-0-0 (-) 79 84
Dutch Art (Affirmed){9-e}(1.91) American family 6/7 Danny Whizzbang
Dutch Admiral was fourth in a listed race on the flat for Cormac Farrell but his being by Dutch Art did not bode well for his prospects as a juvenile hurdler. He demonstrated little aptitude on his UK debut when beaten twenty-eight lengths at Market Rasen, and managed to regress on that performance last time at Uttoxeter. There may one day be a race so poor that he can put a fraction of his flat ability to some use but it won't be taking place at Huntingdon this Tuesday.

Little Tipsy bf Adam West f1-0-0 (-) 25
Harbour Watch (Event Of The Year){6-a}(2.43) 1/1 Act Of Valour 2nd Scottish Triumph Trial (L), Musselburgh 2018
Little Tipsy is a full-sister to the useful juvenile Act Of Valour but she was tailed off on her sole flat start last season. Her trainer has yet to collect any prize money with his three juvenile hurdlers thus far.

Now We're Touring bg Alex Hales f3-0-0 (42) 38
Kingston Hill (Footstepsinthesand){A1}(0.68) 3/4 Rock Climber 3rd Handicap Hurdle (Listed), Enghien 2013
Jeremy and Mastercraftsman, each from the Danehill Dancer line, have been two of the most successful sires of juveniles in recent years despite their Dosage Indexes being 1.82. Two other sons, Fast Company and Choisir, have improvement rates of 65% and 73% despite having DIs of 2.06 and 2.60 respectively. Kingston Hill, a St Leger winning son of Mastercraftsman out of a half-sister to the useful hurdler Lord Jim, has a DI of just 0.90 and is a smidge taller than leading juvenile sire Authorized. Naturally, Kingston Hill makes for a most intriguing addition to the ranks of jumps stallions which explains why he was transferred from Coolmore to the operation's National Hunt base at Castle Hyde Stud. Now We're Talking will be the first to represent his stallion over hurdles but before the excitement becomes too much, it must be noted that the Kingston Hills with a official flat marks do not look great and Now We're Touring is the lowest rated of them all. He was last seen at the beginning of the month when he was beaten forty-two lengths in a Wolverhampton Novice Stakes at 250/1 and prior to that, he was last of twelve in a similar contest at Kempton. Trainer Alex Hales had an enjoyable summer thanks to the exploits of Hiconic but he is yet to breach the first four in Huntingdon juveniles in five attempts. Footstepsinthesand has an above average record as a stallion in the division but as a damsire, he is still without a winner from six horses. While Kingston Hill has the potential to make an impact in the sphere before his offspring become exclusively store horses, he is unlikely to do so with his first runner.

Opine bg Jonjo O'Neill f8-0-0 (52) 57
Authorized (Numerous){4-n}(0.94) .5 Tamarix Jode 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2016
From one stallion with promising credentials to another who has proven himself as of the highest quality in the sphere. Since 2009/10, no horse has as many juvenile wins as Authorized and his improvement rate of 78.05% is outstanding. His sale to Turkey is a loss to the breed. Nevertheless, he still has crops that will be running in juvenile hurdles and one of them is the eight race flat maiden Opine. The former inmate of Michael Bell has this year been competing in handicaps from twelve furlongs to two miles but has been beaten by at least eight lengths on each occasion. Graduates of the Michael Bell yard do have an above average record in the discipline and include some classy sorts such as Grumeti, Allmankind and Christopher Wood. However, while Jonjo O'Neill does get winning juvenile winners with low flat ratings, they typically spent their entire careers at Jackdaws Castle and his overall improvement rate is an unimpressive 28.57%. Furthermore, with his being out of a half-sister to Treve, Opine could have been expected to achieve more on the flat, and his siblings that have been tried over hurdles have fared poorly. There are positive elements to Opine's profile, but it is a patchy one overall and he has something to find with a few of these.

Sefton Warrior bg Richard Spencer f8-1-0 (67) 72
Frankel (Danehill Dancer){21-a}(0.78) 2/1 Mastercraftsman leading sire of juvenile hurdlers
Continuing the theme of stallions, it was mentioned in the preview for Punchestown's race tomorrow that while Galileo is the outstanding sire of his generation, his record with juvenile hurdlers is merely average. Nevertheless, with sons such as Soldier Of Fortune, Nathaniel and Australia, he has a better record as a grandsire and his greatest flat horse Frankel has had a decent foray with limited opportunities, including the dual winner Solo Saxophone. Sefton Warrior is set to be his first juvenile hurdler of the season and while the closest useful jumper on the damline is Auteuil winner El Milagro at 3/3, he is out of a sister to the aforementioned Mastercraftsman. Incidentally, leading National Hunt stallion Oscar also appears further back at 5/3. Sefton Warrior has had eight runs on the flat including a win at Yarmouth three starts ago in a fourteen-furlong handicap. He made all of the running there and was well ahead at the final furlong marker. While the runner-up closed to within a neck at the line, the pair were still over five lengths clear of the remainder. However, that form has not been well advertised since and he has been beaten on both of his subsequent starts, although he only faded late on last time out over two miles at Chelmsford. Trainer Richard Spencer is not in the best form at the moment and he does not send many horses over hurdles, but he did have a winner in the sphere with Nucky Thompson in 2016. Sefton Warrior's profile is not entirely substantial but it is still interesting and his blend of speed and stamina will be useful here.

You Owe Me chg Sarah-Jayne Davies f6-0-1 (60) 64
Champs Elysees (Giant's Causeway){10-a}(1.50) no jumps relatives
Racing for Mark Johnson, You Owe Me began 2020 with a rating of 69, but that dropped to 60 after three moderate runs in handicaps during the summer. His latest effort in a Beverley handicap was the better of his efforts this year as he was beaten less than nine lengths but apart from the winner, the rest of the field has subsequently shown little. You Owe Me joined Sarah-Jayne Davies after fetching £19,000 at the Goffs UK Summer Sale. His new trainer has had one winning juvenile from fifteen starts which came when Big John Cannon won a four-runner claimer at Ludlow in 2013. Champs Elysees does do well in the division and his damsire is capable but there are no notable jumpers in the damline.

Strong prospects
1. Asharann
Reasonable prospects
2. Sefton Warrior
3. Calidus Mirabilis
Feasible prospects
4. Crazy Love
Moderate prospects
5. Donald Llewellyn
6. Opine
7. You Owe Me
8. Now We're Touring
Negligible prospects
9. Dutch Admiral
10. Little Tipsy

[Kotkijet]

If that 2,380 word essay on a Wednesday afternoon Huntingdon juvenile hurdle did not quell your appetite for my waffle, the meeting's class five handicap hurdle also happens to feature a three-year-old. Hurray!

15:10 Huntingdon 2m3½f Class 5 Handicap Hurdle
Dragon Man bg M Young f3-0-0 (45) 45 j3-0-0 (74) 54 57
Dragon Pulse (Editor's Note){23}(1.50) 2/1 Mad George 1st Bumper, Plumpton 2011 2-0-0 Hurdles
Dragon Man was his trainer's first runner when making his hurdling debut at Stratford where he was beaten over one hundred lengths. Sporting cheekpieces for his second outing at Market Rasen, he fared marginally better when beaten only sixty-three lengths. He returned to Market Rasen in the middle of August where he posted his best effort to date as he was able to fend off Navajo Eagle on the run-in for a fifty-two length sixth behind Soldier On Parade. That performance earned him an official rating of 74 although he is sixteen pounds wrong in the long-handicap for tomorrow's race. I only felt his Market Rasen run was worth 57 which leaves him with forty-three pounds to find. He does jump the occasional hurdle well and as well as his granddam being a half-sister to Scorpion, he is also distantly related to talented National horses Moorcroft Boy (7/3) and Blue Charm (7/4) so the step up in trip may suit him well. There is also the chance that he has improved for the six week break but unless this race is literally one of the worst ever held in the UK, he does not look like the most obvious candidate.

[Istabraq]

Far from waffle Kotkijet, always an insightful read...

[Kotkijet]

Cheers Istabraq. I was quite shattered after writing the Huntingdon preview and was struggling for a word which is why I went with 'waffle'. In retrospect, the word I was looking for was 'cogency'. Cogency...

Sedgefield
Preview review
Genever Dragon was relatively unfancied on account of his poor recent flat form and the record of his sire in the sphere - becoming only the second winner for Dragon Pulse from thirty-six starts. Nevertheless, his prospects were still deemed feasible on the basis of his trainer's record at the venue and the consistency of Tom Dascombe's former inmates. Magna Moralia had much the likeliest prospects and went as low as 1.04 in running but his jump at the last and questionable disposition were mentioned as caveats. Kings Creek jumped well but did not quite have enough to win, North Point will likely improve for the run and Sans Logique was not ready to do himself justice. Overall, it was a mostly satisfactory preview.

Race review
The field looked no better than average beforehand but the first two pulled clear enough to warrant interest in future events. A few of these were rather keen early but and there was some bustling over the first few flights but they were a well behaved bunch overall and there were no hard luck stories. The pace was no better than fair but the winning time was reasonable in comparison to the later handicaps that had the benefit of less hurdles to jump. The form horses had the outsiders in trouble from some way out and the finishing order is easy enough to explain so while the race looks nothing out of the ordinary, it still seems reasonably solid for the level.

Genever Dragon had not matched his respectable two-year-old form in three starts this season but he looked a different proposition over hurdles for his new trainer this afternoon. While he was hampered at the second, he jumped well on his hurdling debut and travelled strongly behind the leaders. He began to be ridden between the final two flights and looked a little green under pressure, but a quick jump at the last gave him a clear advantage and he stayed on strongly to the line, always repelling the challenge of the runner-up. This was a pleasing performance first time out and represents a career best effort. There is scope for further improvement and while this is not great form, he is capable of defying a penalty in similar company. 109

Magna Moralia set the standard on flat form and represented a trainer who does well both in this sphere and at the track. He was keen in the early stages and his jumping was not particularly fluent but he was still on the bridle approaching the last and looked the likeliest winner as he took off a length in front. However, he jumped the hurdle awkwardly and lost both his stride and valuable momentum immediately afterwards. He did plug on again once he found his rhythm but while he had too much to do, he was always being held in any case. There is obvious scope for improvement and he perhaps had the best engine in the field but while he can be competitive at this level, he may require a clever type of ride if he is able to win a race. 108

Kings Creek had ran respectably in two hurdle races for Alan King where his jumping was characterised by understated professionalism. Apart from skewing slightly at the second, he put in another clean round here for his new trainer and after being in contention approaching the last, only faded on the run-in. His rider had lost the whip before jumping the last but it probably made little difference as he was still running on but with a hint of fatigue. It transpired this morning that his hurdles rating had gone up from a fair 102 to a harsh 108 on the ludicrous premise that as Soldier On Parade had improved during his break, so too must have Kings Creek. His new connections would have every right to be aggrieved by this idiocy because while Kings Creek can hold his own at this level, he has done nothing to deserve his revised rating. That To Fly Free suffered from the same fate while being beaten in the later handicap off her old mark further compounds the irrationality of this action. 102

North Point had twice finished placed on the flat for David Elsworth and was another having his first outing for a new trainer. While horses from the yard are typically well schooled, North Point jumped left at the second and was getting reminders after he was baulked at the fourth. He was slow at the next two jumps but made some headway turning for home. However, he was outpaced on the run to the last and was allowed to get home in his own time as fourth place had been secured. This was not the most promising debut but the yard's horses usually improve for the run so it is reasonable to expect better in the future. 86

Sans Logique was beaten by just over three lengths at this track a month earlier but though he once again attempted to make all, he was beaten much further out on this occasion. While there was some fluency in his jumping first time out, it was less evident here as he veered left after wandering into the first and maintained that form thereafter. The yard's ex-French flat horses usually do better for a handicap rating but there was still much left to be desired from his jumping here and it remains to be see how generous the handicapper is when this one is allotted a mark. 61

Spit It Out was the first of the outsiders to finish. Apart from being untidy at the first and slow at the fourth, his jumping was reasonable and he made some headway in the back straight without getting near the leaders. If banded racing ever returns then Spit It Out would be of interest but there is not much enthusiasm for the immediate future. 58

Douglas Fir was fresh and jumped slowly when having his first start in nearly eleven months last time out. He jumped better here and improved to the tune of half a stone but was still a tailed-off last. 37

The Trendy Man only made it to the third flight at Southwell but made it to the third last here. He challenged for the lead early on but had dropped to the rear with a circuit left to race and his jumping also lacked fluency. 0

Punchestown
Preview review
The comfortable winner was described as "ought to be difficult to beat" and her closest challenger filled the same spot in the prospects list. The other reasonable prospect did show enthusiasm but went off too quickly while the well fancied newcomer was given a lukewarm review. The third had shown promise on his debut without seeing out the trip and while the fourth was given negligible prospects, there were reasons given on breeding that she could better her lacklustre flat form. While I like to aim for perfection, I can still only be happy with that preview.

Race review
This looked like a potentially useful contest beforehand and it was ran at a solid gallop. However, with the exceptions of the winner and the sixth, no horse made less than three untidy jumps. As such, the race did not take much winning and the form would only be of an average standard.

Scholastic's jumping was initially a matter of grave concern but she had improved in that department with every run. Her latest outing saw her post a career best as she ran Longclaw to a short-head at Listowel and a replication of that effort was enough to run out a decisive winner. Chasing the leader and travelling strongly throughout, she jumped into the lead at the penultimate flight and opened up a gap between herself and her rivals. Her jumping was essentially immaculate at every hurdle and after popping over the last, she was never in danger of getting caught. Given that her rivals collectively jumped themselves out of the race, she did not have to improve on her Listowel performance to win here. As such, while she very much deserved her win today, she may be vulnerable carrying a penalty in better company. Nevertheless, she can jump well and shows an admirable willingness to win so she would still be no pushover at this level. 109

Jeff Kidder brought a decent level of form in his second to Longclaw at Roscommon back in early August and had since collected his first flat win at Bellewstown in the interim. However, his jumping was atrocious here as he either dived at, or got in too close to, most of his hurdles. He obviously has the ability to win a race of this nature and will likely be seen to better effect with more cut in the ground. However, his jumping and questionable attitude make him far from certain to do so. 110

Bigz Belief was no better than fair on the flat but while his jumping was not brilliant, he was still in the lead until turning for home on his hurdling debut at this course three weeks earlier. Ridden more patiently here, his jumping still lacked fluency and he got especially close to the fourth. Nevertheless, he was left a beaten third at the last and put up a career best in the process. Provided there are no great stamina demands, he may be competitive in a weak enough contest provided he can improve his jumping. 102

Rock Chica was poor on the flat but her breeding suggested that she could at least do better in this sphere. She effectively tripped over the first two flights and barely lifted her legs for the fifth. Nevertheless, there were some good jumps during her round and though she had to avoid the faller after the last, she stayed on to post by far her best performance to date. This was still no better than average in terms of form but it was not entirely devoid of promise. 94

Lucky Fella was representing a yard which had won with a racecourse debutant three weeks earlier and he was well fancied to repeat the trick. His profile was not quite as compelling as his stablemate's however and his jumping was nowhere near as polished. He was big and slow over the first, got in very close to the second, jumped right at the third and was slow again over two out. Disregarding his market support, this was not a bad first effort and he is likely to improve for the experience. Nevertheless, he looks unlikely to be one of the leading lights for his powerful yard this season. 95

Craic Eile had only a 125/1 third to Scholastic to show for six starts on the flat and her mark of 55 looked harsh. However, while she was beaten nearly twenty-four lengths here, her jumping ranged from clean to very good. She made some headway towards the second last and while she weakened on the run in, was still clear of the remainder of the field. Her sirelines are not conducive to stamina but she is related to several winning hurdlers and given an easier test, hers might not be a hopeless cause. 93

Gold Coast was unraced for Aiden O'Brien and instead made his debut for a yard that has done well with limited numbers in the sphere. His jumping was far from fluent however and while he travelled well for a long way, he faded tamely on the run in. This was not a devoid of promise but he needs to show more before he can become competitive in open company. 83

Yulong Voice had some reasonable flat form and was going in the right direction over hurdles prior to today. However, he set off quickly from the front but steadied almost to a halt before just about clearing the first. He maintained his strong gallop but his jumping never justified such a tactic and after being headed two from home, weakened very quickly. This was a disappointing effort but it is one that can likely be ignored in the grand scheme of things. 55

Valley Of Dreams almost unseated on numerous occasions and was essentially detached from the outset. While she eventually completed the course, this run was entirely devoid of promise. 0

Finsceal Blue jumped poorly in the rear on his racecourse debut at Listowel and did the same here before unseating his rider two from home. 0

Varna Gold is not the most consistent sort but he is capable of running respectably and was in the process of doing so here when falling at the last. He was slow at a couple of hurdles but his round was not the poorest on display and was while he jumped the last fine, he stumbled and fell on landing. He was two lengths ahead of the fourth placed horse at the time but as it was a rather tired fall, it is uncertain as to whether or not he would have maintained his place. The most important thing is that he got up safely and should he show no ill-effects for the experience, he may or may not post another respectable effort in the near future. 101

To Fly Free 29/9/2020 Sedgefield
Ahead of a scheduled six pound rise on account of her second to Soldier On Parade at Market Rasen, To Fly Free's mark of 98 looked fair beforehand. Due to the low sun, only five hurdles were jumped here. Settling in mid division off a steady gallop, she got fairly close into the first and was also slightly steady going into the second. Better at the third, she travelled well along the hurdleless back straight and had no problems keeping up with the leaders as the pace increased. After being bumped by the disqualified winner turning for home, she once again got in close to the penultimate flight but was able to avoid the concertina effect caused by another swerve by Major Snugfit. She led briefly on the run to the final flight but was unable to quicken and while she jumped well over the last, was one paced on the run-in and hung her head under pressure. This was a fair effort and the performance roughly matched what she achieved at Market Rasen. To Fly Free can improve again with experience but her revised mark will make things more difficult. 99

To Fly Free is also one of two juveniles declared to run in a Ffos Las handicap on Thursday...

Thursday 1st October 15:35 Ffos Las 2m Class 4 Handicap Hurdle
Since 2008/09, no three-year-old has competed in a Ffos Las handicap hurdle nor has Oliver Greenall ran a juvenile in such a race so any statistical analysis where Fraterculus is concerned would be redundant.

Fraterculus chg Oliver Greenall f3-0-0 (79) 76 j2-0-1 (104) 91 95
Teofilo (Anabaa){5-f}(1.08) 6/7 Optimus Prime 2nd Novice Chase, Punchestown 2018
Fraterculus had shown some useful form on the flat for Jim Bolger and his three hurdles runs have had some promise to them. However, he has been rather immature thus far and though his jumping was as good as it had ever been at Southwell last time, he did not go well in the ground. Ffos Las is one of the easiest tracks in the country for juveniles although it is currently riding good-to-soft which will not entirely suit Fraterculus. His rating of 104 is stiff on what he has shown thus far and although he has scope for improvement, he will need to have developed mentally over the past four weeks if he is to be competitive.

To Fly Free bf David Pipe f6-1-1 (72.6) 79 j3-0-2 (99) 92 100
Soldier Hollow (Canford Cliffs){19-b}{0.57) 3/1 Video Tape 2nd Grand Course de Haies d'Auteuil 1985
To Fly Free is also a declared runner and if she lines up, would have the better chance of the pair. She is set to be a pound wrong at the weights and was unable to take advantage of her mark today at Sedgefield but if she strips considerably fitter then this will be as good as any opportunity for her before she goes up six pounds for no justifiable reason. Notwithstanding, David Pipe has only the one winning juvenile from seven at the track which came when Kazlian won at odds of 1/4 in December 2011.

[Kotkijet]

Preview review
After all I have written on Dutch Art, watching his son post the fifth best performance to date in the UK brought the credit theme of Curb Your Enthusiasm to mind. Based on all that could be inferred of Dutch Admiral's qualities, while he has the capacity to do what he did this afternoon, the only reasonable conclusion that can be drawn is that his schooling must have improved dramatically since he was last seen. Front runners do have an advantage in this kind of race but this was the first time in Dutch Admiral's seven starts that he set the pace himself. Opine's jumping was not great but he is by Authorized and was well supported in the market. Calidus Mirablilis does not stay well enough for hurdling, Asharann pulled in the early stages and Sefton Warrior showed little fluency. Taking out the winner and the disappointing newcomers, it was not the worst preview. However, other than Dutch Admiral having flat ability and hurdling experience to his name, I am unsure as to what make of this race's teachings going forward. If we are to assume that the statistics accumulated from over a decade of results are meaningless then so too is every other facet of form study.

Race review
This race appeared to lack strength in depth beforehand and that appears to be the case in hindsight but it was a good performance by the winner who jumped flawlessly throughout. The runner up was less fluent but he was representing a good sire and trainer and was supported in the market. These two pulled a long way clear and the winning time was a second and a half quicker than the novice hurdle ran an hour later. There was some poor jumping on display and most of the field had patchy profiles so the value of the form should not be overstated. Nevertheless, given the winning time and the manner of victory, it would not be fair to take too much away from the winner.

Dutch Admiral managed to finish fourth in a listed race at Dundalk in February and while he failed to win a maiden on his return to that venue, was still thought good enough to be declared for a Curragh Group 3 in June before being withdrawn on the day. However, while his new trainer does get his fair share of winners in the sphere, his pedigree was very uninspiring ahead of his new vocation. With no jumpers nearby on his damline, his sire Dutch Art offered no encouragement as his record in the sphere consisted of one long-odds on winner from forty-three starts prior to today. There was little encouragement to be drawn from his two hurdles outings in the summer either as he lacked fluency and was beaten a combined seventy-two lengths. Even accounting for the fact that he was hampered early on at Uttoxeter, he still had a mountain to climb on all that was known of him. However, he led from the outset here and his jumping was an absolute revelation as he jumped every flight with great efficiency. Credit must go to rider Brendan Powell who judged every stride to perfection giving precisely the right instructions at precisely the right moment. While there was nothing dramatic like a rodeo style recovery or a driving navigation through a big handicap, it would not be hyperbolic to describe this ride as a fine example of horsemanship. Dutch Admiral did not beat a great deal in behind but the winning time was good and strictly on form, it was one of the better performances seen in the UK this season. If he can maintain his enthusiasm and standard of jumping then he will be a player in any ordinary race under a penalty. 111

Opine had not shown a great deal in eight starts on the flat for Michael Bell over distances ranging from seven furlongs to two miles. Nevertheless, former inmates of that yard have a respectable record in this sphere and his sire is one of the best around for juvenile hurdlers. His new trainer is more than capable of training good juveniles and while his improvement rate is not the highest, Opine was the subject of market support here. There was much left to be desired in the jumping department as he was big at several of his hurdles as well as getting in close to a few so it is to his credit he was able to finish as well as he did. This represents a new career best and with improvement anticipated in his jumping, he can step up further on this effort. 109

Calidus Mirabilis already had four runs over hurdles going into this race and had shown enough ability to be competitive at this level. However what he has not shown was the requisite stamina and even on an easy enough track like Huntingdon, he struggled to see out the trip. While he usually leaves his poor jumping for when he is tired at the end of a race, he was snatching up in the early stages here and there were no hurdles where he was conspicuously fluent. Calidus Mirabilis is becoming disappointing and while he can run creditably, it does not appear that he can win an ordinary contest. His official rating has dropped from 109 to 107 and if that decline continues then he may find a suitable opportunity in time. 90

Donald Llewellyn was rated only 50 on the flat but had finished closest to the winner on his latest outing at Lingfield. Along with his stablemate who won later on the card, he was another who attracted market support but while his jumping was reasonable before he ran down the last, he finished too tired to do himself justice. This was not a debut without promise and he broadly matched his flat form here, but he will need to improve before he is competitive at this level. 84

Little Tipsy was well beaten on his sole start on the flat last year and his trainer is yet to have a winner in the division, but he is a full-brother to the useful juvenile Act Of Valour. While he wandered and got close into a couple of early flights, he was able to stay on past beaten horses to secure a remote fifth. This was better than what he achieved last year but he still looks fairly limited. 75

Sefton Warrior won a one mile six handicap at Yarmouth in early August and was sent off favourite here. However, the form of that win has not worked out and he was sporting a first time hood and tongue-tie for his hurdling bow. Settling in the rear, his jumping lacked fluency as he either got in close to, or dived right at, most of his hurdles. He was outpaced prior to turning into the straight and eventually finished well adrift. There is not a lot of encouragement to draw from this outing. 74

Now We're Touring was the first of Kingston Hill's offspring to be seen over hurdles but while he was decent at a few hurdles, he got in very close to a couple of others and did not get very high at the sixth. Furthermore, he had little in the way of promise in his three flat outings and accordingly finished well beaten here. He would not make much appeal for the immediate future. 73

Asharann came into the race with the strongest flat form, achieved during his time with Jean-Claude Rouget in his native France. However, his recent form had not been his best and he showed a tendency to pull hard in his races. A subsequent gelding operation did not quell that issue and his chances took a blow when he was badly hampered at the fourth. That incident would not have been enough to account for this performance but he was not given the harshest of rides thereafter. While he steadied slightly into the first and rather skewed the sixth, his jumping was otherwise of a reasonable standard and as his yard's runners tend to improve for the run, he should fare best of those well beaten here. 70

You Owe Me managed a third last year when with Mark Johnson but his form has been moderate since and he went off unfancied for his new yard. His jumping was poor throughout as he was way too big over several of his jumps and he eventually finished a tailed off last. He has shown hints of ability on the flat but there is plenty of improvement needed before he can show same over hurdles. 68