Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

[Kotkijet]

Uttoxeter hosts the eighth juvenile hurdle of the season tomorrow. Nine runners are set to face the starter and while there two horses with flat ratings of 79 and above, the participants have accrued fifty-two races between them without collecting a single win. This race, effectively a maiden, does not appear to have the strongest field which is in keeping with those held at this venue. Although Patman du Charmil and Always Waining won here in 2005, since 2011/12, only three juvenile winners at Uttoxeter earned RPRs of 125 or above during their first season. Two of them were long odds-on shots and the third was a Nick Williams racecourse debutant. The course is a sharp one but can get testing in soft conditions so the stamina demands are rather ground dependent. The median DI of the past 46 juvenile winners is 1.29 and the mean is 1.42, 1.34 without outliers which would support the notion that Uttoxeter is not an inherently demanding racecourse.

Represented in this field are three sires having their first crop over hurdles. Namely Gleneagles, Golden Horn and Hunter's Light. With this in mind, I have had a look at some basic statistics of ten stallions who do well with juvenile hurdlers and ten who do not. The columns read;-

Stallion / Year of Birth / Year to Stud / Latest Stud / Latest Fee / Latest Year / Sire / Grandsire / DI / Height (metres) / Timeform rating / Runs / Wins / Places / Age of First Win / Age of Last Win / Shortest Winning Distance / Longest Winning Distance / Firmest Winning Ground / Softest Winning Ground. The figures beneath are the mean and median averages.

(As Saddler Maker retired a maiden, I have used his places instead of wins)

Leading sires of juvenile hurdlers

Unsuccessful sires of juvenile hurdlers


While the sample size is small and things get less clear cut as more sires are assessed, the figures at these extremities are largely predictable. The better stallions of juveniles have lower DIs, are taller, are unlikely to have won at any distance shorter than a mile and more likely to win on softer ground. The timeform figures are better for the non-juvenile stallions although if you remove the jumper Kapgarde and the maiden Saddler Maker from the reckoning then their average figure rises to 127 which puts them ahead. The relatives on the damline are also in keeping with expectations as the juvenile sires are invariably related to quality horses with stamina, jumpers and/or jumps stallions. There are, however, those with poor records who are still related to stouter stock. Excelebration is from the family of Seymour Hicks, Upgrade and Self Defense while Lilbourne Lad's great granddam won the Irish St Leger as did his uncle. However, these two also have speedy sires in Exceed And Excel and Acclamation respectively.

Insofar as the stallions represented in tomorrow's race are concerned, here are their statistics.



Anything extrapolated from these figures should not be given too much credence before the progeny has had a chance to prove itself. A lower DI or being shorter in stature does not necessarily preclude one from success in the sphere, particularly in the case of Cape Cross whose DI was 3.44. Nevertheless, if one was inclined make tentative observations, there would be nothing immediately off-putting in the stats of Golden Horn or Hunter's Light although while the Sadler's Wells line does well, Gleneagles is rather diminutive and did not win beyond a mile or on anything softer than Good to Yielding. Nevertheless, much more evidence would be required before a more thorough assessment might be made.

Billy The Squid bg F O'Brien f3-0-0 (47) 34 J2-0-0 (-) 94
Requinto (American Post){19}(0.43) 2/1 Edylan 1st 5YO Conditions Hurdle, Angers 2019
Billy The Squid showed almost no promise on the flat and looked equally moderate following his hurdles debut at Market Rasen. However, he put up by far and away a career best in first time blinkers when finishing a six and a half length fourth at Newton Abbot last time. Despite presence of Hiconic, this was not a strong race as the principles either underperformed, jumped poorly or were not inherently speedy types. Furthermore, it looked for a while that he would also be tailed off yet he still managed to grab fourth. The run was not without promise, the yard is still in good form and this does not look like a strong contest. Nevertheless, a reproduction of that form would still not be good enough and can only be assumed to be an anomaly until proven otherwise.

Dutch Admiral chg D Bridgwater f4-0-1 (83) 80 j1-0-0 (-) 79
Dutch Art (Affirmed){9-e}(1.91) American family 6/7 Danny Whizzbang
Dutch Admiral has the best flat form available and David Bridgwater is a capable trainer in this division. However, the yard's horses have not been performing since coming out of lockdown and the stallion Dutch Art creates an even greater concern as his record with juvenile hurdlers is very poor. This concern manifested on Dutch Admiral's hurdling debut where he showed a complete lack of fluency and despite keeping close to the winner would drop back to be beaten twenty-eight lengths into fifth. The best of his flat form shows that he can win races but he looks unlikely to do so over hurdles any time soon.

Fraterculus chg Oliver Greenall f3-0-0 (79) 76 j1-0-0 (-) 83 (Jim Bolger)
Teofilo (Anabaa){5-f}(1.08) 6/7 Optimus Prime 2nd Novice Chase, Punchestown 2018
Fraterculus had flat form with Jim Bolger worthy of a mid-seventies rating and he represents a solid trainer along with a well above average sire and damsire. However, he ran green when well beaten on his debut and his jumping was poor in the early stages. Nevertheless, it would be premature to dismiss his prospects on that basis as it was his first run since a gelding operation, his jumping and position did improve during the middle section of the race and the cheekpieces that he wore in Ireland return here. There is every reason to imagine that he can leave that effort behind but he still needs to demonstrate an improved aptitude first and there is also a chance that he may not enjoy softer ground.

Global Agreement chg Milton Harris f11-0-2 (56) 64 j1-0-0 (-) 110 115
Mayson (Royal Applause){10-a}(2.33) 2/1 Daring Bid 1st Novices' Hurdle, Bangor 1999
Seemingly exposed after eleven winless starts on the flat, Global Agreement produced a career best effort when runner up on his hurdles debut at Cartmel, and may have finished closer but for his rider dropping the whip. At face value, it was an improvement that exceeded a stone and while he was well backed and jumped perfectly well, such a leap forward after eleven starts must be met with suspicion. Particularly as his pedigree did not make much appeal beforehand. The winner at Cartmel was trained by a yard that could do no wrong, the third would strip fitter for the outing, in fourth was the aforementioned Fraterculus and the next two were a pair of moderate stayers who were burned off by the speedy front running winner. Furthermore, there were numerous occasions during the race where Global Agreement struggled to keep up with the main pack of the field. He still sets the hurdles form standard and by some margin but there are enough reasons to have reservations until that form is reproduced.

Hipster Macalo bg Mrs Jane Williams Unraced
Cokoriko (Sabrehill){u}(1.00) 2/2 Sacre Toi 1st Handicap Chase (113), Kelso 2013
Hipster Macalo is the third unraced newcomer of the season representing the Williams yards, the first two having competed at Newton Abbot. Hector de Sivola had his chances ended early after being badly hampered, but Balko Saint ran well to finish runner up despite looking as though a sterner test would suit. As discussed the other day, the strike rate for racecourse debutants in this division is just 2% although that increases to 8% for runners sent from George Nympton. One of those winners was Diable de Sivola, the winning newcomer at this course mentioned in the opening paragraph. Sire Cokoriko was twice a winner over hurdles as a four year old in France and comes from the same Garde Royale sireline as Corri Piano, Kapgarde and Robin des Champs. He has made a fine start in his own right with Polirico, Coko Beach and Five O'Clock among his first crops. The damline offers some encouragement as Hipster Macalo's half-sister, Galice Macalo, fell when holding every chance in Aintree's listed fillies' juvenile hurdle last season. There are numerous other winners on the damline, albeit without any being top class. The prospects of any unraced horse are typically guesswork but Hipster Macalo has a solid profile and the yard sent stable stalwart Aubusson to finish second at the course on Tuesday. In a race as weak as this, Hipster Macalo would have a respectable chance by default.

Navajo Eagle bg Denis Quinn f3-0-0 (50) 50 j1-0-0 (-) 44 57
Gleneagles (Victory Gallop){4-r}(0.91) 3/3 Master Dino 1st Prix Renaud du Vivier, Auteuil 2018
Navajo Eagle's best effort on the flat saw him beaten eighteen lengths in a Chelmsford novice stakes and the switch to hurdles did not induce any improvement. His jumping was poor early on at Market Rasen earlier this week and while it got better as the race went on, he still finished a tailed off last.

Utopian Lad bg David Loughnane f11-0-5 (64) 71
Society Rock (Amadeus Wolf){1-p}(2.43) 2/1 Go Figure 1st Handicap Hurdle (94), Perth 2007
A consistent sort on the flat, Utopian Lad has finished second or third on his eight starts since a gelding operation last August. While he has yet to win a race, he does not appear to be ungenuine and although he has been known to race keenly and is inclined to drift to the left, he appears to have generally settled better in recent outings. He is rated 64 on the flat which possibly underestimates him given that the form of his races is standing up. He should stay the minimum trip over hurdles and he is distantly related to useful jumpers Gardens Of Babylon (4/4) and Mister McGoldrick (5/3). Society Rock has sired a juvenile winner although his better runners have more stamina from the damsire which is not offered here. Furthermore, while David Loughnane saddled Yellow Tiger to win a juvenile last season, his improvement rate between codes is not strong and he is without a winner in thirty-five runs. Comes into the race with reasonable prospects but there are still a few concerns to overcome.

Topkapi Star bf Amy Murphy f9-0-2 (60) 74 (Roger Varian) 7/24 10/68
Golden Horn (Thousand Words){5-h}(1.00) 3/2 Daybreak Boy 1st Conditions Hurdle, Clonmel 2019
Amy Murphy's first juvenile winner, Soldier On Parade, has also been one of the best juvenile hurdlers seen out this season and the yard has enjoyed six winners in the past fortnight. Initially with Roger Varian, Topkapi Star was given an official mark of 74 after she finished third ahead of three subsequent winners in a Doncaster fillies' maiden last July. She then finished fourth off that mark in a Thirsk nursery ran over a mile in September. However, in all five subsequent starts, she has been beaten by at least eleven lengths including four for this yard and three this summer. She has been tried in blinkers and a visor for her last few starts and here she will be trying a hood for the first time. Topkapi Star would be entitled to some respect given her earlier form along with the form of her yard. Furthermore, the tall, solid and classy Golden Horn could make a useful addition to the juvenile stallion ranks. However, there are too many questions pertaining to her current form for there to be much optimism for tomorrow's race.

Unbridled Light chf Anthony Honeyball f5-0-0 (38) 38
Hunter's Light (Poliglote){1-r}(0.63) 2/1 Assureur 2nd 4yo Handicap Hurdle (L), Auteuil 2008
Sire Hunter's Light was a durable racehorse whose granddam was a full sister to Darshaan. Furthermore, damsire Poliglote is a fine source for quality jumpers and Anthony Honeyball has a respectable record in this discipline from few runners. However, after five starts on the flat including two this season in low grade staying handicaps, Unbridled Light has earned an official rating of just 38 which dampens any enthusiasm generated by her sirelines.

After some deliberation, I have come up with an initial codification of the prospect definitions. With the exception of "outstanding", each category can contain as many horses as is necessary. Sometimes, there might be several with strong prospects, sometimes there might be none. But the important thing to remember is that these are not tips and I am not a tipster.

Outstanding - Sets clear standard with no questions to answer.
Strong - Sets or is close to standard and can be reasonably expected to perform to its best OR has such potential in its profile that in the context of a poor or patchy field, can be given strong prospects by default.
Reasonable - Sets or is close to standard OR has a strong profile. Due to profile or conditions, a good showing is not entirely assured but would still not be a surprising event.
Feasible - Something to find on form but aspects of the horse's profile or race conditions could see improvement.
Moderate - Something to find on form and profile not entirely encouraging OR Form is of a reasonable standard but profile or conditions are discouraging.
Negligible - Something to find on form and poor overall profile OR plenty to find on form despite profile.

Strong prospects
1. Hipster Macalo
Reasonable prospects
2. Global Agreement
3. Fraterculus
4. Utopian Lad
Feasible prospects
5. Billy The Squid
Moderate prospects
6. Topkapi Star
7. Dutch Admiral
Negligible prospects
8. Unbridled Light
9. Navajo Eagle

[Kotkijet]

Preview review
There was a strong sense that the race was a poor one and that is the impression given in hindsight. Had the unraced newcomer possessed a modicum of ability then he would have been a threat, but he never travelled a yard. The winner had shown poor form this season and while her stable has been flying as of late, it was still in good shape when she was running poorly. Sire Golden Horn has made the perfect start with his hurdlers but the race took very little winning.

Race review
Prior to the off, the field had accumulated fifty-two starts without collecting a single win between them. While the standard of flat form was not abysmal, the principles all had questions to answer and it ultimately transpired to look a weak race. Very few of the horses travelled well at any stage and the overall quality of jumping was poor. The winning time was over eight seconds slower than the following five runner handicap hurdle.

Topkapi Star was initially given a mark of 74 as a two-year-old with Roger Varian. However, her mark had slipped to 60 after a series of poor runs this season and that would still have been higher than the sum of her efforts. She had been tried in blinkers and a visor on her last few outings and was tried in a hood for her hurdles debut. Backed from 16/1 to 11/1 before the off, she would travel and jump perfectly well for a debutant which also happened to be better than anything else this field could muster. This was a rejuvenation of sorts and she emerges as a horse who at the very least demonstrated she can perform in this discipline. This win gives Amy Murphy her second winner in this division from as many animals and Golden Horn a 100% record as a jumps sire. In terms of competence and attitude, this was a pleasing debut and it would be no surprise to see her improve. However, strictly from a form perspective, it is difficult to justify a rating exceeding the mid-nineties and her penalty might be a factor if she faces stronger opposition than this. 93

Billy The Squid represented another stable that can do little wrong and while he achieved next to nothing in three flat starts, has improved on each of his hurdles outings, posting another career best today. His jumping was atrocious on his debut, but it did not improve a great deal last time at Newton Abbot and he was still big and slow at several hurdles here. He at least travelled better although his lack of experience when being involved in the business end of a race was rather telling. Nevertheless, he demonstrated that his latest outing was not a fluke although his attainment here is also indicative of this contest's weakness. There are races of sufficiently low standard for Billy The Squid to be competitive in the future although he may have better prospects once handicapping. 98

Fraterculus has a nice size about him but is still an immature sort which was much to his detriment on his debut at Cartmel. He made another couple of bad errors here and his mind was not completely on the task at hand, but this was an improved effort and he finished much the best of those who raced prominently. Given his size, greenness and flat ability, he would probably have the most scope for improvement among this field and can win races in the long term. However, these factors may keep him vulnerable in the immediate future. 95

Global Agreement finished thirty-two lengths ahead of Fraterculus at Cartmel but would suffer a fifty-one length reverse here. Despite being a well-supported favourite here, there were suspicions that his debut effort flattered him on the basis of his unconventional and exposed profile and the Cartmel race falling apart. He did not travel particularly well here but that was also the case last time. However, his jumping was not at all up to scratch on this occasion which will have cost him dearly since that was a definite asset on his debut. He was beaten too far for this to be truly representative but while he can do better, the Cartmel performance may have been the result of a perfect storm. 76

Dutch Admiral was fourth in a listed race at Dundalk back in February, but he demonstrated little aptitude for hurdling on his debut at Market Rasen. He demonstrated even less this afternoon. If he is to be competitive, it would much sooner be back on the flat. 56

Utopian Lad is a consistent sort on the flat and has shown enough to be competitive in this sphere. He went slightly to his left at the first but wandered wildly on the approach to the second and was subsequently lit up for a while. Nevertheless, he was not bad over the next few flights, did well to correct himself on the approach to the sixth and was still in the lead leaving the back straight. However, his concentration and jumping went to pieces turning for home and his errors were exacerbated by tiredness to the extent that he almost fell at the last. This was not an effort devoid of promise as he demonstrated a capacity to jump well at speed. Given experience and more favourable conditions, it is reasonable that he can leave this performance well behind. 54

Unbridled Light had shown nothing on the flat but did make faint appeal on breeding. However, she got worked up in the preliminaries and was keen in the early stages. After racing prominently, she eventually weakened and was pulled up in the straight. 0

Navajo Eagle started at 125/1 which was a fair reflection of his prospects. He was hampered at the second whereupon his rider lost his irons. Those irons were not recovered and he was pulled up after the fourth. 0

Hipster Macalo made appeal on breeding, represented a yard with a history of success with newcomers and looked well beforehand. However, he started slowly, jumped slowly and would only lose ground. At one stage, he struggled to put distance between himself and the aforementioned Navajo Eagle who was in the process of being pulled up. To be tailed off so early in such a poor race was an astonishingly bad debut. It would be impossible not to improve on this effort but by the same token, it is difficult to enthuse over his immediate prospects. 0

[Istabraq]

Great preview/review once again Kotkijet.
I’ll get round to watching the race later today...

[Kotkijet]

After losing a couple of fixtures due to the lockdown, racing returns to Sedgefield on Thursday and the card opens with a juvenile hurdle. While it is not the most fashionable racecourse in the country, it has attracted some useful juvenile hurdlers in recent years including Countrywide Flame and Runswick Royal. Despite being an undulating track with an uphill finish, it does not place a great emphasis on stamina with the median average winning being 1.35 and the average winning time per furlong being quicker than average. Furthermore, front-runners have a tendency to be favoured on account of the short run-in. The quality of this field is no better than average although there are a few decent yards represented and interesting profiles on show.

Douglas Fir bg Russell Ross f1-0-0 (-) 44
Australia (Danehill Dancer){14-c}(0.75) 2/1 Rocky Wednesday 3rd Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Fairyhouse 2011
After finishing a twenty-one length last of six in a Chelmsford maiden last October, Douglas Fir was sold out of the Mark Johnson yard for £1,800. Selling out of Kingsley Park for such a low sum does not always make for a forlorn hope in juvenile hurdling as both Linger and Raven's Tower fetched no more than £2,000 before winning three races apiece during their first seasons. Furthermore, both the sire and damsire have good records in the division and their lines crossed to create the decent Lord Lamington - another expat of the Mark Johnson yard. Additional encouragement can be taken from the dam being a half-sister to useful juvenile Rocky Wednesday and multiple jumps winner Bohemian Spirit. Nevertheless, the lack of form, the low price tag and the fact that his trainer has yet to saddle a winner weigh heavily on an otherwise intriguing profile.

Historic Heart chg Nigel Hawke f4-0-1 (75) 67 j1-0-1 (-) 91
Fracas (Giant's Causeway){14-c}(1.00) 3/1 Direct Lady 3rd Festival Hurdle Leopardstown 1992
Historic Heart has the highest UK or Irish official flat rating in the field and his hurdles form is also the strongest of the three runners with experience. While his flat rating almost certainly exceeds what he has shown, his six length third behind the penalised Soldier On Parade at Market Rasen is still worthy of respect. While some of his jumping lacked fluency, he tackled several of his hurdles sufficiently well to expect further improvement. His trainer has a good record in these events and of the four juveniles he has sent on the long journey from Devon to Sedgefield, two have collected wins. If these is a drawback to his profile, it may be that his being a poor traveller might work against his favour at this track.

Mukhtoon bg Tim Easterby Unraced
Mukhadram (Unfuwain){2-n}(1.67) 0.5 Amour de Nuit 2nd Persian War Novices' Hurdle (G2), Chepstow 2017
Two horses without any racecourse experience are set to line up on Thursday, and Mukhtoon has much the stronger profile of the pair. Sire Mukhadram had his first crop of juvenile hurdlers last season and managed a winner from three runners which is in keeping with the Shamardal line's ability to hold its own. Mukhtoon is a half-brother to two winning hurdlers and his pedigree also features classy flat runners Wootton Bassett, Silver Patriarch and Papineau. Damsire Unfuwain and trainer Tim Easterby are each capable of producing winners in this discipline and in Market Maker, Hawk High and Our Thomas, the latter has sent three to win on their hurdling debuts - although they all had form on the flat beforehand. Racecourse debutants have a mere 2% strike rate in juvenile hurdles and Mukhtoon has a few interesting rivals to overcome. However, his is not a bad profile and a strong showing would not come as a major surprise.

Sans Logique bg David Pipe f5-1-2 (80.3)
Toronado (Whipper){22}(0.75) 0.5 No Thanks 6th Novices Hurdle, Uttoxeter 2020
David Pipe has a strong record with juvenile hurdlers and while he initially had three entries for this contest, it is Sans Logique who makes the journey to County Durham. Three other horses of his age have made the journey from Pond House to Sedgefield in recent years with Paricolor winning, Ainsi Fideles falling when looking like winning and squiggly Lucky Quay finishing second at 2/5. Initially with Jean-Claude Rouget, Sans Logique moved to the Fabrice Vermeulen yard and, under his care, won a maiden at Marseille Vivaux before being claimed out of a Vichy contest for €15,001. He won his maiden by three lengths from a strung-out field and the form has stood up well. The runner up has since finished close in handicaps and has an equivalent mark of 70.4. The third placed filly won a handicap next time before finishing a neck second in a competitive handicap at Clairefontaine and is currently rated 74.8. The winner of the claimer has since won a similar contest and while Sans Logique's mark of 80.3 might flatter him slightly, it is still the strongest form available in this race. Though horses bought out of French claimers do not have the best success in juvenile hurdles, David Pipe is an exception to this rule with two winners and recent Market Rasen runner-up To Fly Free from four runners. Toronado failed to win with his first three juveniles from last season's crop although his sole French hurdler has been successful. It is possible to be concerned with the fact that Sans Logique can take a keen hold although he has a strong jockey in Tom Scudamore and his free running style could be an asset at Sedgefield.

Jean Marie chf Stef Keniry f3-0-0 (22) 18 j1-0-0 (-) 0
Cityscape (Hero's Tribute){1-c}(2.33) 2/1 Red Moloney 6th Supreme Novices Hurdle, Cheltenham 2009
Jean Marie showed nothing in three starts on the flat and that she is out of a half-sister to Red Moloney is the only positive in her profile. That positive was rendered moot on her hurdling debut at Bangor where she demonstrated zero aptitude and was pulled up a long way from home.

Swiss Silk bf Anthony Brittain Unraced
Swiss Spirit (Alhaarth){9-f}(4.00) 2/1 Topolski 1st Top Novices' Hurdle (G2), Aintree 2011
The other newcomer in the field, Swiss Silk is out of a half-sister to the very useful Topolski and is from the family of Croco Rouge and Taipan. She is also distantly related to top hurdler Supasundae (6/5) and damsire Alhaarth is capable in this discipline. However, stallion Swiss Spirit is from a very speedy family, which is a negative for an Invincible Spirit sire in this discipline, and his hurdlers thus far have achieved next to nothing. While Anthony Brittain has saddled twenty flat winners so far this season, his sole hurdles runner pulled up after jumping poorly in a Market Rasen hurdle in 2018.

Talking About You bf Sean Curran f6-0-1 (60) 60 j1-0-1 (-) 89
Sixties Icon (Mastercraftsman){9-h}(0.50) 3/1 Princess Caerani 2nd Mares' Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2014
Alongside Historic Heart, Talking About You is the only other runner in the field with worthwhile hurdling form. This came when finishing third to Hiconic at Newton Abbot at the beginning of the month. The only thing worse than her jumping that day was her behaviour as she sweated badly and looked as though she might be withdrawn at the start. She was improving on the flat at a low level and she makes appeal on breeding as both Sixties Icon and Mastercraftsman have very respectable records in the field. If she learns how to jump and settle then she could be capable of eventually winning over hurdles. However, while improvement can be expected on debut efforts, there was still enough amiss with her performance to be too enthusiastic about her prospects.

Ten Thousand Stars chf Brian Ellison f7-1-1 (62) 69
Toronado (Green Tune){1-n}(0.88) 2/1 Le Vagabond 3rd Juvenile Hurdle (G3), Fairyhouse 2015
Brian Ellison has sent out twenty-one winners in juvenile hurdles since 2011/12 and his strike rate is the best of all the trainers in this field. He sends out his first juvenile hurdler of the season in Ten Thousand Stars who won a seven-furlong Newmarket novice auction stakes last year for Adrian Nicholls. That race was not a strong one by Newmarket standards and she was receiving weight from her rivals but the subsequent form still warrants a mark in the high sixties. She has not reproduced that form although she did run creditably in defeat at Windsor in June when less than five lengths fifth in a ten-furlong handicap behind a four time winner and a pair who were each runner up next time. However, following a month off and a switch in yards, she was beaten thirteen lengths at Hamilton where she was held up and ran in a first-time hood. Ten Thousand Stars is a half-sister to winning juvenile Green Etoile and there her pedigree features other winning juvenile hurdlers Le Vagabond (3/1) and Umberto (3/1). Her form is perfectly acceptable for this level and her profile is a solid one. She does however have to put her latest run behind her and a couple of these have more substantial claims.

Strong prospects
Sans Logique
Historic Heart
Reasonable prospects
Ten Thousand Stars
Talking About You
Feasible prospects
Mukhtoon
Moderate prospects
Douglas Fir
Negligible prospects
Swiss Silk
Jean Marie

Great preview/review once again Kotkijet.
I’ll get round to watching the race later today...

Cheers Istabraq. I don't think there was a great deal to watch in that race and York's Melrose Handicap on the same day might have been a more interesting contest for the thread. Particularly as the winner Coltrane has a cracking pedigree for the discipline and plenty of Andrew Balding horses end up in juvenile hurdles. Unfortunately, he won a little too well and it looks like he will be kept on the flat. Such is life..

[Kotkijet]

Since the beginning of the 2011/12 season, there have been 1473 races won by juvenile hurdlers at 63 different racecourses in the UK and Ireland. Using the racecourses which have hosted fifteen or more races, here are the top and bottom ten by average winning dosage index.



The median figures tend to make more sense than the mean figures on account of the outliers. There is nothing controversial about the suggestion that Wincanton (when it is soft), Chepstow and Hexham are demanding racecourses and the presence of Perth, Plumpton and Newton Abbot among the easier tracks is perfectly tolerable. However, while Ascot could be considered challenging with the use of an active imagination, no rational person could suggest the same of Kempton. Nevertheless, there it is.

One explanation could be that Kempton's lower average winning dosage index occurs not because of the demands set by the course configuration, but by the quality of the fields. The application of seasonal best RPRs certainly appears to support this premise.



However, other perfectly reasonable explanations could be that the sample sizes are too small and that dosage indexes are unreliable. There is nothing concrete to be drawn from these findings where specific course characteristics are the focus since there is a fairly even spread of racecourses left and right handed, flat and undulating, and sharp and galloping. Notwithstanding, general ideas concerning certain racecourses being particularly demanding, along with the correlation between classy juvenile hurdlers and lower dosage indexes are still broadly supported.

If anything has been definitively elucidated by this particular exploration, it is that there are very tangible indicators insofar as the typical quality of a racecourse's juvenile hurdle is concerned.

[Istabraq]

Great work Kotkijet, will take some analysing but is surely a great (Starting) reference point for every juvenile race during the season.
Thoroughly enjoying your efforts here...

[Kevloaf]

Now we've got colours too!





It's all very interesting, glad you've chosen to share it here.... as the quality picks up, so will my involvement (and I'm sure plenty others) with questions and so on!

This is a great starting point though, a couple of surprising positions there!

[Kotkijet]

Cheers lads. The colours are the result of using conditional formatting which is a fun but often frustrating toy so I am not sure how much of it we will see in the future!

Northern Ireland, or North of Ireland, hosts its first juvenile hurdle of the season on Friday. Down Royal does not have the reputation of a Leopardstown or Punchestown, but it still hosts above-average juvenile hurdlers and has attracted the likes of Espoir d'Allen, A Wave Of The Sea and Guitar Pete in recent years. Gordon Elliott saddles two runners with one of them a winning hurdler. Joseph O'Brien is also represented as too is Noel Meade. While there are only seven horses declared, with the lowest official flat rating being sixty-seven, this is quite comfortably the highest quality race of the season thus far. It might not match the corresponding race on the November card but if there is a clear-cut winner of this race then designs on pattern company would not be unreasonable. Undulating and galloping in its nature, Down Royal is a fair but demanding racecourse and the average winning DI of 1.09 mean, 1.00 median, along with its seconds per furlong figure, conform to this sentiment.

Longclaw bc Gordon Elliott f6-0-2 (84) 83 j1-1-0 (-) 125
Kitten's Joy (Dixie Union){3-d}(2.38) american family
Gordon Elliott is the leading trainer of juveniles in Ireland by number of winners and is well above average by all metrics. His record at Down Royal with juvenile hurdlers since 2009/10 is also sound with six winners being the most of any trainer, giving him a 17.65% strike rate. He saddles two runners here, the first being Longclaw. Longclaw's flat career began in promising fashion and took him to America where he finished third in a listed contest. He had disappointed in two flat runs this year on his return to Ireland but bounced back to form when making a winning hurdles debut at Roscommon at the beginning of the month. Despite taking an alarming drift in the market, there was little to criticise about the performance as he jumped well in the main and was a clear cut six length winner. The form of that race has also stood up as the runner-up won a handicap on the flat, the sixth and fourth were first and second at Ballinrobe, and the seventh was second at Tipperary. His winning as an entire was also rarity, a feat accomplished by only Solo and Sir Erec in recent seasons. If doubt is to be cast on his prospects then it may come from the fact that conditions were ideal for him at Roscommon and that he may find the extra furlong on softer ground at a more demanding track a different challenge under his penalty. Nevertheless, jockey Keith Donoghue reported after the race that his mount stays well and Longclaw sets the standard here.

Charlie Bassett bg Noel Meade f7-0-5 (84) 86
Lawman (Xaar){13-b}(2.00) 0.5 Lambeau Field 3rd Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2016
Noel Meade is another leading trainer of juvenile hurdlers with well above average statistics including a 75% improvement rate between codes. His record with juveniles at Down Royal is also laudable as three of his eleven runners at the track have won since 2009/10. The yard has sent out three juveniles so far this season, two of who finishing placed, and Charlie Bassett has a higher rating than all of them. While he has yet to win any of his seven starts, he has been placed on five occasions and has finished runner up on his latest couple of outings. In July he was beaten only on the line in a ten-furlong Fairyhouse handicap whereafter the winner has since won a Gowran handicap and the fourth won a Limerick maiden next time. Charlie Bassett also holds Varna Gold who finished two and a half lengths behind in third. On his latest outing, Charlie Bassett was second in a Gowran Park maiden behind Pugin with the pair five lengths clear of the remainder which included the 87 rated Daylight Come. His flat form, certainly from this year, is easily the strongest in the field and his mid-eighties rating is not controversial. Stallion Lawman has a respectable 21.95% winners to runners ratio with juvenile hurdlers and five of the seven runners out of Xaar mares have improved for the switch in codes. However, while the two other Lawman - Xaar crosses have both been flat winners, neither did so at a mile or beyond. Half-brother Xebec (Mizzen Mast) won over twelve furlongs and beat Jer's Girl in a Sligo maiden on heavy ground while the third dam is a half-sister to Prix de Diane runner-up Sheba Dancer. Nevertheless, the damline is otherwise barren of stamina and Charlie Bassett has not looked an assured stayer on the flat. The standard of flat form and the yard he represents entitle him to a great deal of respect but the stamina concerns are difficult to ignore at a venue like Down Royal.

Poets Touch bg Andrew Slattery f1-0-0 (-) 59 j1-0-0 (-) 50
Poet's Voice (Candy Ride){12-b}(3.00) no jumps relatives
Poets Touch was having only his second visit to a racecourse when making his jumps debut at Tipperary eleven days ago. After finishing six lengths behind Longclaw at Killarney, he was backed in to 8/1 from a morning 50/1 ahead of his hurdling bow. Racing prominently in an attritional contest, he jumped well and was the last of the front runners to be beaten. While he finished tired and was beaten fifty-nine lengths in the end, it was still a promising effort. Nevertheless, the standard of this field is stronger and he has yet to show that he is capable of being competitive in this kind of company.

Varna Gold chg Paul John Gilligan f11-0-3 (69) 72 j1-0-0 87
Shooting To Win (Efisio){5-e}(1.67) 3/2 Najaf 2nd Spa Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2010
The best of Varna Gold's eleven flat races came in the Fairyhouse handicap behind Charlie Bassett where he was beaten two and a half lengths while receiving four pounds from the Noel Meade gelding. While he has been placed three times in that sphere, he is exposed and largely inconsistent. He jumped slowly during his hurdles debut at Ballinrobe and although he showed up from the rear three flights out, he would quickly fade again to be beaten twenty lengths. He is capable of being competitive in a low grade but he might be a step below a few of these.

Yulong Voice bbg Shane Nolan f9-1-1 (73) 78
Poet's Voice (Refuse To Bend){1-e}(1.00) 2/1 Dariak 4th Galway Hurdle (122), Galway 2008
Five of the six juveniles who begin their careers with Jessica Harrington before switching to hurdles failed to collect any prize money during their first season in the division. By contrast, five of the twenty-nine she kept for herself over hurdles endured a similar fate. Yulong Voice had eight starts on the flat while living in Moone and won a Bellewstown maiden at two ahead of a next time winner in second and Charlie Bassett in third. That performance, and the official rating of 79 that it earned, has not since been replicated and while his strongest effort this year came when fifth in a Killarney handicap in July, the form of that race has not stood up well. Yulong Voice was sent off at 50/1 on his first start for his new yard in a Galway handicap where he was never better than mid division. Poet's Voice is a sire with a respectable strike rate although his improvement rate is less inspiring and the produce of Refuse To Bend mares are winless from eleven attempts. He is a half-sister to winning chaser Kitty's Light and his dam is a half-sister to Galway Hurdle fourth Dariak. Very decent jumpers can also be found further back in the pedigree including Darlan, Shaneshill, Far Cry and Argocat (all 4/2). Trainer Shane Nolan has never saddled a juvenile hurdler and the vast majority of his jumps winners come in handicap company. There is enough in Yulong Voice's profile to suggest he can have a future over hurdles but there are others in the field with stronger prospects.

Scholastic bf Joseph Patrick O'Brien f12-3-0 (72) 66
Zoffany (Sadler's Wells){5-b}(0.63) 1/1 Severus Alexander 4th Handicap Hurdle (102), Leopardstown 2020
With twelve races under her belt already, Scholastic is the most experienced runner in the field. She is also the winningmost with three victories including last time out in a rated race at Tramore over twelve furlongs. Despite a tendency to hang and her having to be loaded into the stalls without a rider on her penultimate start, she has shown a nice attitude in winning her races and the trip and conditions should not be a concern here. The form of her win in a July Limerick handicap has worked out well but it was still won off just 56 and her current mark of 72 is harsh based on what she has achieved. She is a full brother to former stablemate Severus Alexander who is rated 101 and still without a jumps win in nine attempts. Good jumpers Tatenen and Takelot appear at 4/4 on the damline. The stable has had twelve winners in the past fortnight and has a good record in this discipline. Scholastic is capable of performing well over hurdles although the switch at this stage may be a result of a harsh mark as she was initially entered in earlier hurdles events before opting for the Tramore contest.

Sister Eliza bf Gordon Elliott f4-0-1 (67) 61 j1-0-0 (-) 98
Footstepsinthesand (Imperial Dancer){2-f}(0.82) .5 Smiling Eliza 1st 3YO Maiden Hurdle, Down Royal 2017
Gordon Elliott won the three year old hurdle, ran as a maiden, on this corresponding card in 2017 with the Rock Of Gibraltar filly Smiling Eliza. Her half-sister, Sister Eliza attempts to follow in the family footstepsinthesand by imperially dancing to victory at the same venue tomorrow. Unraced before the back end of June, Sister Eliza was closer to last than first on in three maiden outings but was an eye-catching third when coming from nowhere in a Galway handicap over seven furlongs. Earlier this month, she made her hurdling debut at Ballinrobe and jumped well in the main while racing prominently. She was always close enough if good enough but would find three too good for her and finished two lengths back in fourth. On a strict line through Calidus Mirabilis, she is well held by Longclaw and the race was not the strongest. She did finish nine lengths clear of the remainder and is entitled to improve for the run but she might find a couple of these too strong.

Strong prospects
1. Longclaw
2. Charlie Bassett
Reasonable prospects
3. Sister Eliza
4. Scholastic
Feasible prospects
5. Yulong Voice
Moderate prospects
6. Poets Touch
Negligible prospects
7. Varna Gold

[Ray]

Absolute class work, between longclaw and go another one today i got myself a nice little return at 4/1..top man

[Istabraq]

Great work again Kotkijet.
Quick question, when a horse who you deem to be a feasible prospect or worse and they run better that expected, do you re-visit and analyse or just accept it was an unexpected/unusual result ?

The work you have done on medians at each course is invaluable, but I wonder whether you go back further to test this.
I’m wondering whether any changes made to courses affect your calculations such as moving rails, hurdles etc.
Fascinating stuff...

[Kotkijet]

Great work again Kotkijet.
Quick question, when a horse who you deem to be a feasible prospect or worse and they run better that expected, do you re-visit and analyse or just accept it was an unexpected/unusual result ?

Cheers Istabraq

I think this is why the "preview reviews" have come about along with the structural definitions of the prospects section. I do not believe there is anything wrong with being wrong and I like to use them as opportunities to see if there was anything I missed which might be useful to developing my understanding of the subject. I would certainly like to imagine that I am not so controlled by my ego that I might decry reality for having the impertinence to disagree with my assumptions! If something unexpected does happen then I would always make the effort to find a rational explanation. If after deconstructing a race, my only conclusion was it being "just one of those things" then my time spent reading History at Durham really will have been for nothing!

There have been several instances in this thread where I have misapplied a horse's prospects and it does nobody any favours to ignore or deny this. In the case of Merry Poppins, I overlooked her flat siblings which was completely on me. With Topkapi Star, her prospects were moderate based on recent form and her use of various headgear was disconcerting although it was a poor race and her return to form, particularly after her being backed, was a perfectly acceptable outcome. If there are races, themes or threads that I am getting completely wrong then I am happy to adjust my perspectives and amend my comments as the work evolves. This is largely contingent on my spotting my own errors mind you so if anybody else recognises somewhere I am going wrong then I am more than happy to be prodded back on course.

The work you have done on medians at each course is invaluable, but I wonder whether you go back further to test this.
I’m wondering whether any changes made to courses affect your calculations such as moving rails, hurdles etc.
Fascinating stuff...

The use of dosage indexes are predominantly used as a periphery guide alongside more pertinent factors such as form, training and breeding. They are limited because of the way they are calculated but they can still be used to broadly demonstrate stamina requirements or allude to the "amount" of stamina in a particular horse's pedigree. As such, to apply the fine adjustments demanded by rail movements and so forth will not be overly constructive insofar as the specific study of juvenile hurdlers are concerned and are more the domain of the time figure boffins.

Absolute class work, between longclaw and go another one today i got myself a nice little return at 4/1..top man

Nice one! Appreciate it

Preview review
For the most part, the review was a satisfactory one. Historic Heart travelled better than anticipated although that was down to the race being slowly run due in part to the predicted front runner being predictably restrained by his strong jockey. Sans Logique was a little disappointing, hints to which may have been alluded to in previous reviews pertinent to David Pipe's French flat recruits:-

"David Pipe has won with two claimed horses... neither won until competing in late season handicaps."

"like others at her yard with similar profiles, she may be better with a run or two under her belt."

While these posits were based on brief perusals of a set of profiles, I have since done some research into the progression of RPRs achieved by David Pipe's juvenile hurdlers on a race by race basis. These tables account for the yard's 30 juveniles who since 2011/12 have raced four or more times during their first season in the division.



Here are the seven who were sourced from France who ran in flat races. The mean difference figures closely match the progressions of the three who were sourced specifically from claimers .



And the other twenty-three for comparison.



The sample sizes are small and the data is at times erratic. Nevertheless, there is a discernible propensity for the French flat recruits to find considerable improvement following their third race over hurdles, more so than those brought from the flat in the UK/Ireland, those who started in bumpers or those with hurdling experience in France.

This information might have been pivotal in the performance of Sans Logique in comparison to his rivals and it is feasible that he can strip fitter. Nevertheless, there were reasons to assume weaknesses in his opposition which largely manifested, and San Logique's underperformance was not glaring. As a slight tangent, David Pipe's To Fly Free is the first juvenile of the season to be entered in a handicap, itself due to be contested on Tuesday at Newton Abbot. Her official mark of 96 is four pounds below the one I gave her at Market Rasen where she finished ahead of yesterday’s winner Historic Heart. Purely in the context of her age group, she appears to be kindly handicapped although what that amounts to alongside her older rivals is another matter.

Race review
Yesterday's race at Sedgefield was a controversial one after an incident packed run-in saw the winner interfere with the third placed finisher. While there is the capacity and right to speculate on whether or not the horse should have kept the race, or indeed whether he would have had the third not lost a position on the line, this is a matter more of stewarding than of merit. Stewarding, being based on principles of judgement which vary from jurisdiction to jurisdiction, would not be a predominant concern when analysing the merit of a horse's performance. Nevertheless, in the spirit of polemical willy waving and fanny flapping, the best horse won and he should have been thrown out. Apart from the final seventy odd yards, the race was rather tepid and uncontroversial. While the four form horses pulled a long way clear of the forlorn horses, there was plenty of greenness and dodgy jumping on display. This was not restricted to the racecourse as newcomer Mukhtoon was withdrawn after getting rid of his jockey in the parade ring and going into business for himself. Several of these pulled quite hard and although they had form for this kind of behaviour, it was exacerbated by the slow pace which resulted in the winning time being nearly fifteen seconds slower than the class four handicap later on the card.

Historic Heart is rated 75 on the flat and while he has not quite ran up to that mark, he is capable of being competitive at this level. He made a pleasing debut effort when third at Market Rasen where his jumping was good while having scope for improvement. That improvement was found here as apart from stumbling on landing three out and getting a bit low at the penultimate flight, his round was solid and saved him crucial lengths along the way. He did edge right approaching the last and continued that trajectory on the run to the finish. This move altered the course of his rivals but it did not cost them momentum and while this will have cost the third placed Ten Thousand Stars ground in the geometric sense, they both travelled the same distance and he was putting enough of himself into each stride to suggest that he might have been able to fend off the challenge in any case - just as he had done with the runner-up. From a form perspective, this was an improvement on his Market Rasen run and he has the scope to improve once again. While he is unlikely to venture far from this level, he can still be competitive in an ordinary contest under a penalty. 107

Talking About You caused all manner of havoc at the start at Newton Abbot and as a preventative effort, was mounted at the last possible moment before the off. She still got rather sweaty and was pulling hard early on but there was a massive improvement from her debut effort in terms of her jumping, her disposition and her form. While her jumping lacked fluency at times, this was more due to her greenness and being distracted by the movements of others than an innate inability to jump. This is compounded by the fact that she was good over several of her hurdles but also drifted left on the run-in. She had been improving on the flat and this was another step in the right direction. There are still concerns about her general behaviour, but she can be even more competitive if she is able to mature mentally. 99

Ten Thousand Stars represents a successful yard in the division. Although she had disappointed on her first run for the stable at Hamilton last time, she still had bits and pieces of respectable form for the level and she has a pedigree for the discipline. She was another horse who pulled hard in the beginning but while she would settle before too long, her repertoire of jumping moves included the bunny hop, the twist and jazz hooves. She attempted to walk through, rather than jump, the last which was probably more detrimental to her finishing position than her being hampered towards the line. It is true that there was contact from the winner and that her stride was affected seventy yards from the line. However, she was still wandering independently of the winner, she was not making inroads on the winner and her stride length and frequency was only altered when the race was effectively over as a contest. Perhaps she might have won if she stayed on a perfectly true course and the denial of such an opportunity is what makes her an unlucky loser. Nevertheless, there is no guarantee that she would have run true or have outbattled the winner which is why she would not emerge as best from a strict merit perspective. Notwithstanding, this was still a fair debut although she really needs to brush up on her jumping if she is to maintain and improve on this standard. 100

Sans Logique pulled hard during his races in France and he also took some restraining here. Nevertheless, Tom Scudamore was able to settle him quickly enough and dictate a steady pace without too much resistance. He attempted to turn the screws early in the back straight but was never able to steal a march and though he led over the penultimate flight and had yet to be hard ridden, he had looked vulnerable through the proceeding couple of furlongs. After being headed between the final two flights, he was squeezed out on the approach to the last although this made little difference to his finishing position. His jumping was good at stages but while he never looked in danger of falling or making any bad blunders, there were several errors which cost him momentum. Strictly on flat form, he disappointed to the tune of nearly a stone and it was unusual for a sole Pipe runner at Sedgefield to put up such a lacklustre performance. Nevertheless, he did enough to suggest that he is perfectly capable at hurdling and there is little reason to suspect that he cannot move closer to the standard of his flat form as the season progresses. 104

Swiss Silk was making her racecourse debut and while she is out of a half-sister to Topolski, the rest of her profile lacked substance. Always in the rear, she jumped slowly and was already losing ground when starting the final circuit. She can improve for the experience but there was little promise here and she is not a certain stayer for jumping in any case. 36

Jean Mary led briefly in the opening stages but veered badly right approaching the first flight. She made a mistake at the second, was slow at the third and was soon losing touch. This was a step up on her Bangor debut by sheer virtue of her completing the course. However, there is little else encouraging to extrapolate here. 36

Douglas Fir was having his first start for almost eleven months since finishing last of six in a Chelmsford maiden for Mark Johnson. Bred well enough for the job, he was understandably a bit fresh and jumped rather slowly before completing in his own time. He has the most potential of those who were completely tailed off although he was completely tailed off. 30

The review for today's race at Down Royal will be posted tomorrow at the earliest and I will hopefully be able to look at the Tattersalls sales that happened this week before too long. As well as there being a few interesting flat recruits, there was also the interesting transfer of Calidus Mirabilis from Joseph O'Brien to Amy Murphy. In other transfer news, Orchestral Rain is now with Dr Richard Newland and has been given an entry in Southwell's juvenile hurdle this coming Thursday which is pretty exciting.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Not sure there has ever been a more detailed thread on this forum, Kotkijet.

Can't wait to read this as the season progresses.

[Lobos]

I'm just going to cheat and read the write up prior to flagfall of the Triumph and Fred Winter. Great work Kot !

[Kotkijet]

Preview review
Isolating the three who completed, the winner was a long way clear of the other two but given that the starting prices were 7/4, 50/1 and 28/1, there was nothing revelatory about the analysis. Estimating the finishing positions of the remainder of the field is pure guesswork. Especially when the complexion of the race was altered so dramatically with the best part of half a mile yet to be raced. Working on the assumption that Longclaw would have beaten Charlie Bassett with Sister Eliza in third, the preview was basically a prophecy. Particularly as Scholastic's tendency to hang and having to enter stalls without a rider foretold that she would cause trouble in the race itself. However in truth, there is nowhere near enough evidence to be able determine the accuracy of the preview.

Race review
Above absolutely anything else, one can only be grateful for the fact that all of the horses and jockeys emerged from the incident at the penultimate flight with life and limb intact. It could very easily have ended up going badly wrong and it should serve as a reminder that whatever we may think of the performance of any given horse or jockey on any given day, we must always be appreciative of these brave animals and humans and respect the fact that genuinely risk their lives for us and the sport that we love.

It was a decent quality field that faced the starter but as only one of the main contenders completed the course, we are left with a rather unsatisfactory outcome. The race was peppered with hard luck stories and while Longclaw would most probably have won regardless, the only real conclusive item that can be extrapolated from the race is the superiority of the winner over his lesser fancied rivals.

Longclaw did little wrong when making a winning debut at Roscommon and it is difficult to pick holes in his performance here. Apart from getting slightly close to the fourth, his jumping was spotless. He travelled well throughout the contest and never drifted beyond his starting price in running. Always racing prominently, he cruised up effortlessly to join the leader over half a mile out and only needed to be shaken up to have the rest of the field in trouble two furlongs from home. After being left clear at the penultimate flight, he kept on to put eleven lengths between himself and the runner-up without any fuss. This was an improvement on his debut and it is looking as though he can quite comfortably get this trip over hurdles. Strictly on form, it is difficult to justify a mark exceeding the mid-120s but he is certainly capable of better and it will be interesting to see where he goes from here. 125

Varna Gold is a capable if inconsistent performer on the flat and he showed up briefly on his hurdling debut at Ballinrobe. His jumping was rather slow first time out but while he was still steady on occasions here, there was a definite improvement. He never resembled a threat to the winner and had any of the non-finishers been able to complete, they would all likely have done so ahead of him. Nevertheless, there is still merit to the performance and while it would take a very weak contest in order for him to be competitive in open company, he should be able to hold his own once handicapping. 106

Yulong Voice was able to win a two-year-old maiden on the flat for Jessica Harrington at Bellewstown but has since been unable to replicate that form. He is bred to jump hurdles and apart from wandering approaching the first and being slow over the last, he put in a reasonable round. The value of this form is not quite at the level of his flat runs but again it was not without merit and there are races where he can be competitive over hurdles. 101

Charlie Bassett represents a top yard and his recent flat form is as good as anything in this field. There were doubts about his stamina beforehand but he was travelling well enough prior to being deprived of the opportunity to prove himself. He enjoyed no luck whatsoever as he did not see the second flight until the last moment, he almost slipped up after the second bend, was absolutely blindsided by the loose horse three out while still travelling and after gathering himself together was caught up in the melee two from home. There is no way of being able to ascertain how he would have coped with the final two furlongs but he was looking far from beaten when he was hampered. He was briefly backed into favouritism before the off which could be indicative of a favourable comparison with stablemate Jeff Kidder who was beaten by the winner on his debut. Concerns about his stamina have to remain present until they are dispelled by the horse himself but his jumping and travelling were fine and if he shows no ill effects for this disaster of an outing then he is entitled to respect wherever he next appears. 116

Sister Eliza was placed on the latest of her four flat starts and made an encouraging debut over hurdles when a two length fourth at Ballinrobe. While she was the lesser fancied of the two Elliott runners here, she did not go unbacked in the market and was in the process of running a respectable race when brought down two out. Her jumping was decent although she was not making ground on the winner and was helped by Charlie Bassett being hampered as he was travelling better at the time. This was still another step forward and while she is becoming rather exposed, she can still hold her own at this level. 104

Poets Touch was making only his third racecourse appearance and his second over jumps. He was well beaten on his hurdles debut at Tipperary but he was racing prominently in an attritional contest and was the last of the leaders to be beaten. He jumped well for the most part that day but was much less fluent on this occasion. Nevertheless he ended up taking a lead of a few lengths after being lit up at the third and although he was joined approaching three out, did not look to be in any major trouble. There are concerns about his attitude but while he officially ran out three from home, a closer inspection of the footage appears to show that he was barged out by the loose Scholastic. It looks quite unlikely that he would have been able to fend off his challengers had he been allowed to maintain his course and his waywardness has been duly noted. Nevertheless, he does not lack ability. 109

Scholastic is a smaller than average horse who had hinted at giving trouble on the flat. Perhaps forced into hurdling due to a harsh looking flat rating, Scholastic was big over the first two flights but appeared to take the third fine before Poets Touch landed right in front of her giving JJ Slevin no chance of staying on board. This should have been the end of Scholastic's day but it would only mark the beginning. The loose Scholastic missed the fourth hurdle, jumped over the running rail in order to avoid the fifth and put in a huge harrier-jet type leap over the sixth. She veered badly right approaching three out, taking out Poets Touch in the process, before veering badly left on the same approach to nearly take out Charlie Bassett. Then at the second last, she attempted to jump the flight diagonally, crash landed and tripped up Sister Eliza and Charlie Bassett in the process. It is only fair to give Joseph O'Brien the benefit of doubt as it is entirely possible that she schooled well at home and was somehow made excitable by the occasion. Nevertheless, Scholastic is an absolute menace and if she is ever to run over hurdles again, it should be done after earning an independently verified schooling certificate. Otherwise, somebody could get seriously hurt.

I'm just going to cheat and read the write up prior to flagfall of the Triumph and Fred Winter. Great work Kot !

Perhaps you might find this useful for the Fred Winter...

This shows every David Pipe juvenile hurdler who was sourced from the flat in France. Along with the averages at the top of the table, the columns represent horse, wins, runs, best RPR, valeur (multiply by 2.2 for equivalent rating in pounds), source and trainer. The figures show the RPRs achieved in each race with those in white text, underlined and in italics denote winning performances. The type of race is colour coded with the key in the sheet. The horses in bold italics were bought from claiming races. After the gap are the known purchases who fit the criteria for this season. Free To Fly was bought at the arqana sales although her latest start was in claiming company. The finishing positions with the prices were achieved in the festival's Fred Winter hurdle.



*Adagio and Home Run's valeurs are the official German handicap marks estimated through BHA ratings.

There is not a 100% correlation but the findings are self evident.

[Kotkijet]

Traditionally speaking, Tattersalls is not in the business of selling horses during August. At least not in Newmarket. However, due to this year's befuddling events, they hosted a horses-in-training sale at HQ last week. Though not all was strange and uncharted as most of the top lots were still sold to warm places east of Constantinople to have their names changed and their testicles removed, as is tradition. More interestingly, there were also over a couple dozen lucky souls who get to stay on the Atlantic Archipelago and jump over hurdles in weather best described as sensible. Here is a look at a few sold this week who are more likely than not to go juvenile hurdling.

Camouflaged grg Charlie Mann f12-2-5 (76) 80 (Mark Johnson) 90,000gns
Dark Angel (Singspiel){6-b}(1.33) 2/2 Leoncavallo 1st Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle, Wetherby 2015
Leaving Mark Johnson for Charlie Mann for 90,000 guineas, Camouflaged fetched the highest price of those likelier than not to contest juvenile hurdles this season. With twelve races already under his belt, including two victories in mile and a half handicaps, he will not lack for experience. Ex-Mark Johnson horses have enjoyed success in juvenile hurdles with Sadler's Risk, Nordano, Commissioned, Stars Over The Sea, Duke Street and Broughton all achieving RPRs above 130. Those who started at Kingsley Park are 26.58% winner to runner and 37.97% have RPRs exceeding 107. However, as one may notice in the aforementioned list, many of the more successful horses stayed with the same owners or operations such as Bloomfields or Roger Brookhouse. When accounting for those sold at public auction, the winner to runner rate drops to 22.22% and 24.44% achieve RPRs of 108 or more. These figures are still just above average although the improvement rate from flat to hurdles is just 27.78% which is decidedly below average. Charlie Mann's record in the division is an above average one and the switch between the two yards has yielded winners Fin Vin De Leu and Greyfriars Drummer. Furthermore, Charlie Mann has paid in excess of £20,000 for four juveniles and each of them won at least one race. Dark Angel does get winning juveniles and although his winner to runner rate is a fairly low 15.79%, Camouflaged is a cousin of the decent juvenile hurdler Leoncavallo. He appears genuine and should stay well. There is enough in his profile to suggest he can win races without being a top class prospect.

Tamaris brc Gary Moore f4-1-0 (73) 79 (Roger Charlton) 60,000gns
Dansili (Montjeu){5-h}(0.79) 3/1 Praxiteles 1st Handicap Hurdle (122), Stratford 2011
Making his debut at Kempton at the start of June for Roger Charlton, Tamaris has ran four times on the flat and won last time out in a one mile six furlong handicap at Wolverhampton. While he was only running off a mark of 64, he took that race by over six lengths and the third placed horse was under the care of his new trainer. Gary Moore is behind only Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson for winning juveniles since 2011/12 and his winners to runners rate is a healthy 37.5%. However, that rate drops to 28.57% with those bought at public auction and his six that cost more than £50,000 all failed to win as juveniles. Those formerly trained by Roger Charlton have a 33.33% winners to runners rate, including Old Guard, and the improvement rate of 35.29% is just below average. Incidentally, last season's Winning Fair runner-up Great Bear was also trained by Roger Charlton and his stallion Dansili has above average statistics in the division. Montjeu is a more than capable damsire of juveniles and the granddam, out of Hellenic (Greek Dance, Islington), is a sister to two winning hurdlers and the dam of another. There may be something of a class defecit to overcome, but he won his handicap well and there are more ticks than blanks in his profile.

Dreaming Blue bg Anthony Honeyball f7-1-0 (72) 77 (Richard Fahey) 60,000gns
Showcasing (Duke Of Marmalade){1-l}(0.78) 4/1 King In Waiting 2nd Prelude Handicap Hurdle (128), Market Rasen 2011
Another who fetched 60,000 guineas, Dreaming Blue also won a handicap at Wolverhampton. Running off a mark of 68 over a mile and a half, he wandered around on the straight but was able to knuckle down and lead close home to win by a length. As well as wandering last time, he also ducked right at the start on his penultimate outing. Anthony Honeyball has had two winners from eight juveniles while former inmates of Richard Fahey's have above average records by every metric. Showcasing has two winners from his nine juvenile hurdlers thus far although he is from the inconsistent Oasis Dream line his overall strike rate in the field is a low 6.25%. Duke Of Marmalade has one winner from three as a damsire but his strike rate as a sire was just 5.41%. There are no jumpers on the immediate damline although the third dam is a half-sister to two winning hurdlers along with St Leger winner Millenary. Dreaming Blue has a decent size about him but while his profile is not necessarily a negative one, it is not substantial either and there are concerns pertaining to his temperament and sirelines.

On Guard bg Tom Malone f3-1-1 (86) 88 (John Gosden) 52,000gns
Invincible Spirit (Giant's Causeway){1-e}(1.40) 2/2 Strolling Home 117 1st 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Tramore 2008
When any nondescript footballer makes the switch from one nondescript club to another for an undisclosed fee, Sky Sports News will be sure to alert the public with flashy banners and dramatic music. Horse racing is apparently the second most popular sport in the country but while we know that On Guard has left John Gosden for 52,000 guineas, and we also know that the middle-man is Tom Malone, the public does not yet know where he will be trained. It is highly likely he will be going jumping and with an official rating of 86, he could be an interesting recruit. After a promising debut second at Haydock last year, he won a six runner Yarmouth Novice Stakes from three subsequent winners and two subsequent runners up. Leading from the start, he was headed over a furlong out and drifted out to 20/1 in-running before rallying to regain the lead close to the line. He played up prior to his latest start in the Queen's Vase and refused to settle while being held up before finishing tailed off. It is typical of juveniles whose flat careers began with John Gosden to disappoint over hurdles without even taking into account the heightened expectations. Of the thirty-five horses to have made the switch from Clarehaven to hurdles, only five managed to win a race. Three of those with fruitless campaigns sold for over £100,000 and only Tom George's Petit Palais earned more than £10,000 in prize money. Invincible Spirit's record in the sphere is also poor and though his 12.5% winners to runners rate since 2009/12 could be worse, none of his sixteen juveniles since 2012/13 have won a race between them. There are some positives on the damline however as there the likes of Chivalry (3/2), Sir Erec (3/3) and jumps stallion Mahler (3/2) can be found. On Guard makes appeal on this basis alongside his Yarmouth victory but there must be concerns about his sire, his behaviour at Ascot and the difficulty his new trainer will have improving an ex-Gosden horse.

Jalwan bg Gary Moore f8-0-2 (75) 79 (John Butler) 40,000gns
Wicked Strong (Cherokee Run){8-h}(3.57) US pedigree
Purchased by and to run in the ownership of Noel Fehily, eight race maiden Jalwan joins Gary Moore from the John Butler yard. Despite not picking up a contest, he has run very consistently in races of around a mile mark and the form has generally been solid for the level. The furthest he raced has been over nine and a half furlongs but while he was closing at the end on that occasion, it was likely more a case of the frontrunners slowing rather than him finding an extra gear. Stallion Wicked Strong has his first crop of jumpers this season. A runner up in the Travers Stakes, he never won beyond nine furlongs and neither yet have any of his offspring although his sire Hard Spun did produce Lil Rockerfeller. Damsire Cherokee Run has also had few descendants in the division but one of them was the useful Unanimite. Being of American stock, there are no jumpers on the damline but there is a distinct lack of stamina and the closest black type relative is Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Shanghai Bobby at 4/4. No juvenile since 2011/12 started their career with John Butler and Jalwan does not fit the profile of one that can obviously thrive in the sphere. Nevertheless, Noel Fehily has forgotten more than I will ever know about horses and he is hoping to get Jalwan qualified for one of the Cheltenham Festival races before he progresses to jumping fences so time will tell.

Red Missile bg Lucinda Russell f6-1-1 (80) 89 (William Haggas) 38,000gns
Battle Of Marengo (Notnowcato){4-m}(0.76) 2/1 Carry On Sydney 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Market Rasen 2014
At the time of writing, Red Missile is the only horse sold at last week to appear in the Triumph Hurdle ante-post lists and is currently available at 66/1. Racing on the flat for William Haggas, Red Missile got off the mark at the sixth attempt when lengthening nicely to win a twelve-furlong Lingfield maiden by six lengths in first time cheekpieces. The third placed that day has since won a maiden of his own and the form of the two handicaps he contested this season has stood up well. Battle Of Marengo produced two winners from six juvenile hurdlers in his first crop last season including triple winner Maria Magdalena, and his sole French hurdler last season was also a winner. Notnowcato has yet to have a winning juvenile as a damsire but was a respectable sire in his own right and Red Missile's dam is a half-sister to a winner in this division. William Haggas expats, which include Cracker Factory, Park Paddocks and Prabeni, have above average figures in juvenile hurdles and 52.38% of them also show improvement for the switch between codes. Lucinda Russell has not enjoyed the greatest of successes within the division with only three winners from twenty-seven juveniles and none since Lone Foot Laddie in April 2013. Nevertheless, she has a promising type in Red Missile and while talks of the Triumph are premature, it will be interesting to see how he progresses.

Arranmore bg Kevin Frost f8-1-3 (86) 85 (Jim Bolger) 35,000gns
Oasis Dream (New Approach){9-c}(1.00) 3/1 Whaston 3rd Handicap Hurdle (90), Musselburgh 2010
Following a win in a twenty-one runner Cork maiden last August for Jim Bolger, he was allowed to contest a pair of pattern races without any success. This season saw him run in three handicaps, the best effort coming when third in a Premier Handicap at Naas over a mile off 86. the runner up in that race has since won twice but he was four lengths ahead of Arranmore and those in behind have all been well beaten subsequently. As a yearling, Arranmore fetched ten times the amount paid last week but he would still be the joint highest rated horse in the list. Kevin Frost is a dual-purpose trainer but his only ever juvenile hurdler was winless in five starts and it has not been publicly stated that Arranmore will be going jumping. However, he does not look like an obvious sort for the discipline as sire Oasis Dream has just a 3.64% strike rate with juvenile hurdlers since 2011/12. The closest jumps relative on the damline is a five-race maiden out of the great granddam and New Approach is currently winless from four as a damsire. Arranmore has the class to win races but on paper, his profile suggests he would enjoy more success on the flat.

Several leading and capable jumps trainers were involved in purchases below 30,000 guineas and below.

Milton Harris trains recent Cartmel runner-up Global Agreement and he brought home two three-year-olds in Pyramid Place for 27,000gns, and Raased for 26,000gns. Pyramid Place is by the fantastic sire of juvenile hurdlers in Authorized although damsire Zafonic's record is less exemplary. This four-race maiden has not been seen since February and while his current mark of 69 is workable in the division, his coming from John Gosden does not give him much scope. Raased is by Teofilo, another successful sire in the division, and his dam is out of sister to high class staying hurdler Rostropovich and a half sister to Midlands National runner-up Kamikaze. Ex Saeed bin Suroor inmates have done well largely by virtue of moving to John Ferguson although Most Celebrated (Neil Mulholland) and Istimraar (Philip Kirby) both won in the division after selling at public auction. Raased made just the one racecourse appearance and that came when eight lengths third in a twelve-furlong Novice Stakes at Wolverhampton at the end of July. The leading duo both won since and the sixth-place horse was subsequently a runner up off 70.

Only Alan King has had more winning juveniles than Gordon Elliott since 2011/12 and nobody matches his record of 72 with RPRs exceeding 107. The master of Cullentra House acquired a pair of three-year-olds in Sideshift (27,000gns) and Glorious Zoff (26,000gns). Sideshift is by first crop sire Sidestep whose wins all came at six furlongs. Makfi has yet to be tested as a damsire but his strike rate as a sire of juveniles is a miserly 2.5%. Nevertheless, Sideshift did win a Dundalk handicap off 60 over an extended ten furlongs for Michael O'Callaghan. Half of the six juveniles who started at that yard would win over hurdles including Veneer Of Charm who did so twice for Gordon Elliott. Glorious Zoff will run in the colours of Deva Racing after earning a rating of 72 through six winless starts for Charles Hills. Almost half of the juveniles who started at Faringdon Place won during their first campaign over jumps including Cliffs Of Dover and Doubly Clever although neither Brawny nor Global Quality would collect prize money with Gordon Elliott. Glorious Zoff never raced beyond a mile but Zoffany (Sir Psycho, Lord Justice) gets his share of winning juveniles and damsire Overbury was a successful jumps sire.

Oliver Greenall has saddled four winners from twenty-one juvenile hurdlers, three of whom were able to win on multiple occasions. He parted with the best part of £50,000 to bring home the 71 rated Gold Desert (23,000gns) and the 70 rated North Point (22,000gns). Gold Desert thrice finished in fifth place in Novice Stakes last term and would finish sixth of sixteen in a Haydock handicap over an extended ten furlongs on his return. The form of that race has not worked out and just over a third of ex-Hannon horses improve for the switch to hurdles. Nevertheless, that yard has been the source of some decent types such as Lil Rockerfeller and Who Dares Wins, and Gold Desert has a top juvenile stallion in Mastercraftsman. North Point has finished fifth on his past three outings, all coming in handicaps with the latest two over ten furlongs. Sire Norse Dancer has produced two winning juveniles but his improvement rate is a poor 10%. Nevertheless, Montjeu is a capable damsire in this division (A Wave Of The Sea, Cerberus) and North Point is closely related to the fairly useful hurdler Star Maker.

At the beginning of the season, Amy Murphy had yet to saddle a winning juvenile hurdler. However, both of her charges this season have won races and last week she added another pair to her string. Calidus Mirabilis (17,000gns) has already had three runs over hurdles for Joseph O'Brien with form figures of 424. He was a beaten favourite on his latest two starts although while he was probably beaten purely on merit at Ballinrobe, he will have found conditions too testing last time at Tipperary. If he can find better ground on an easier track then he has the capacity to be competitive in the UK for his new trainer. Amy Murphy also bought Howey (3,500gns) from the Joseph O'Brien yard although as the price suggests, he has not shown much on the track being beaten a combined forty lengths in maidens at The Curragh and Down Royal. Nevertheless, sire Camelot (Sir Erec, Gardens Of Babylon) made a promising start with his first two crops of juvenile hurdlers, Danehill is a very capable damsire in the sphere and Howey's dam is a half-sister to a winning hurdler and pointer in Laurel Seeker.