Tomorrow's juvenile hurdle will be the third held at Warwick this season, and is a regular feature on the calendar. Though one of the stronger races held at the venue, it does not have a rich history of producing top class types. Hawk High and Dhaafer, winners in 2014 and 2011, would finish first and third in respectively their Fred Winters, while 2009 winner Trenchant would follow up in that season's Dovecote at Kempton. Nevertheless, this year's edition looks well up to scratch as it features three previous winners who each look potentially useful. Warwick's average winning DIs of 1.40 median, 1.55 mean, are among the highest in the country, although they drop to 1.00 and 1.23 for this particular contest and with the ground currently riding as heavy, tomorrows race will likely take some getting. The clear round rate of 94.92% is one of the lower ones in the country, and newcomers have a below average record at the venue. Notwithstanding, the high strike rate of odds-on favourites and below average winning SPs indicate that the results are largely straightforward.
Triumph Odds
Sage Advice 33/1 (32)
Goodbye Stranger 33/1 (42)
Fred Winter
Sage Advice 25/1
Cabot Cliffs chg Dan Skelton f4-0-0 (66) 68 j3-1-1 (125) 119 129
Gleneagles (Halling){9-f}(0.71) 2/1 Rougham 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2010
Though no better than a fair maiden on the flat for Charlie Hills, Cabot Cliffs made a winning hurdling debut at Uttoxeter and followed up with an eight length third in the Wensleydale Hurdle. He was last seen in the Prestbury Juvenile at Cheltenham back in November where he was beaten by Duffle Coat by over twice the margin than at Wetherby. While he mostly jumps well when given free reign, this can often be his undoing as his headstrong style has been a factor in his failing to fully see out his races. The sharper circuit at Warwick might help mitigate against this, and the yard is enjoying a good spell of form at the moment. In terms of form already in the book, Cabot Cliffs has the strongest coming into this contest. However, coming back from an eight week break might make him too fresh for his own good and with his constitution being questionable, he may be vulnerable in what is a competitive affair.
Goodbye Stranger bg Nicky Henderson j1-1-0 (-) 114 117
Kapgarde (Muhtathir){14-c}(0.82) 1/0 Romaneda 2nd 3YO Newcomers Hurdle, Pau 2013
Making his racecourse debut in a juvenile hurdle made Goodbye Stranger something of an anomaly for trainer Nicky Henderson. Notwithstanding, this son of Kapgarde and relative of numerous successful juveniles was able to find the winner's enclosure on the first time of asking at Newbury in December. His introduction did not begin with a great deal of promise as he was steady and untidy over the first few flights and looked momentarily in danger of becoming detached. Nevertheless, he picked up the bit after urgings from his rider, settled into a better jumping rhythm and was even taking a pull passing the cross fence. While closer to last than first turning for home, he was within a length of the leaders at the distance and although untidy jumps at the last two compromised his momentum, he was able to rally on the run-in and ran out a fairly comfortable winner to the tune of a length and a quarter. The bare form is not extraordinary but it does carry some substance as the first seven have either placed or finished close on subsequent outings in hurdles or jumpers bumpers. Nicky Henderson has two winners and a second from three runners in this contest and Goodbye Stranger was selected over Heross Du Seuil to participate here. While on bare form, he has the most to find of the three winners, he also has considerable scope for improvement and with this Triumph entry being the likeliest to appreciate the ground, he comes into the race with commanding attributes.
Sage Advice bg Dr Richard Newland f6-1-3 (79) 85 j1-1-0 (-) 124 126
Make Believe (Danehill Dancer){16-g}(1.15) 2/1 Lochalsh 1st Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2015
Progressive in his six runs for Joseph G Murphy in Ireland, Sage Advice won a soft ground, ten furlong Cork maiden on his penultimate flat start, before finishing third in a Tipperary handicap off 80. After fetching 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, whereafter he underwent a wind operation. This in conjunction with his free sweating antics on the flat gave cause for concern ahead of his hurdling debut at Kempton twenty-five days ago. Nevertheless, he attracted support throughout the day and this momentum was sustained in the ring where he was sent off as 7/4 favourite. Though he was certainly keen over the first half mile, he was not lathered in sweat and he settled adequately for the bulk of the contest. Tracking the leaders throughout, he moved into strong contention turning for home and shared the lead jumping the penultimate flight. After being shaken up on the run to the last, he jumped it with an advantage of a couple of lengths which was comfortably extended to half a dozen by the time he passed the line under a motionless Sam Twiston-Davies. Apart from being somewhat large and untidy at the first, and rather skewing at two out when diving to his right, Sage Advice jumped nicely for a hurdling debutant and with his superiority value for a few more lengths than the winning margin, this was a highly promising introduction. While he has shown form on soft, he may not want it quite as testing as it might be tomorrow and his jumping to the right at Kempton is a slight misgiving. Notwithstanding, Sage Advice has every right to hold a Triumph entry and his prospects are difficult to dismiss.
Admiral Balko bbg Nick Williams j1-0-1 (-) 94 103
Balko (Davidoff){5-e}(0.50) 1/0 Singaminnie 6th Prix de Beaune (Listed), Enghien 2015
Admiral Balko was one of eight unraced horses from the Williams yard to make his debut in juvenile hurdles this season, and one of four to runner-up first time when starting out at Bangor back in November. Sharing the pacemaking duties up to the fifth, he established a clear lead shortly after and was the last horse to come off the bridle. He was outpaced by the winner from the distance, but was able to maintain his superiority over the third placed horse. His jumping was decent for a debutant and counted only insignificant errors in the early stages before pressure caused him to be slightly low at the penultimate flight, and close and slow over the last. Due to the race's small field and slow, the bare form is not worth a great deal and only the winning Pyramid Place has since done anything of note. It was still a perfectly satisfactory introduction and he should benefit for the experience, although he would have something to find with the principals.
Alberic bg Nick Williams j2-0-0 (-) 81 82
Poliglote (Kahyasi){2-c}(0.89) 1/0 Khayance 1st 3YO Chase, Enghien 2011
Essentially a stablemate of Admiral Balko, Alberic is related to juveniles but is probably bred to come into his own with a season or two under his girth. Pulled up on his racecourse debut at Huntingdon, he fared not much better when last seen finishing a twenty-five length sixth over this course and distance in December. His jumping improved between those races but still left something to be desired and he makes little appeal in open company at this juncture.
Balzac bg Evan Williams f2-1-0 (82) 81
Lope De Vega (Montjeu){8-f}(0.93) 0.5 Cerberus 6th Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2020
Having two runs for Ed Walker in as many years, Balzac made his debut at Sandown in September 2019 finishing twelve lengths behind multiple Group 1 winner Palace Pier. Following operations to his wind and tackle, his return came at Newbury back in July where he raced freely and made all to comfortably take a twelve furlong novice stakes. After fetching 30,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale, he was withdrawn from engagements at Sandown and Nottingham after refusing to enter the stalls and has since switched to Evan Williams for a hurdling career. The bulk of his new trainer's winning juveniles used to come during the summer months, and his record in the division since 2017/18 reads as one winner from fifty-three starts, although State Crown and Balkardy have ran with credit for him this term. Lope De Vega's record as a sire in this discipline is little better than moderate, but the dam did produce the useful juvenile Cerberus. Balzac would be due some consideration in an ordinary contest, but is in testing company for a newcomer at a venue where experience is invariably a useful asset.
Caldwell bc Michael Scudamore f3-0-2 (-) 73 j1-0-1 (-) 99 86
Dansili (Barathea){13-c}(1.67) 1/1 Quebec 1st Novices' Hurdle, Market Rasen 2015
Placed on the first two of his three starts for Dermot Weld, Caldwell joined his new connections for 28,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. The standard of flat form is perfectly respectable in the context of this discipline and he is a brother to two winning hurdlers. While he was withdrawn on account of heavy ground at Listowel, he was not entirely unsuited by the conditions at Wetherby where he received warm market support through the day. However, a conspicuous misgiving from the flat was his peculiar headcarriage and this translated into a very sloppy round of jumping on his hurdles debut. He steadied into the first where he jumped big and to the left, was big and left at the second, steadied and got close to the third, was close and skewed over the fourth, close again into the fifth, clipped the top and stumbled on landing at the sixth (this was his best jump of the race), skewed and went left at the seventh and eighth and was big and skewed over the last. Tracking the leader throughout, he was taken the scenic route and was still in contention at the top of the straight. The futility of his task revealed itself as the race began to wrap up and rather sensibly, he was given nothing harsher than a hands and heels ride and was allowed to come home in his own time with almost fifty lengths in hand over his remaining opponents. Though he was beaten a distance, it was still a promising debut as in the absence of Hacker des Places, he would have been a very impressive winner in spite of the litany of jumping errors. His jumping absolutely needs to improve and he might also benefit from a date with a pair of scissors which has not happened in the past couple of weeks. Nevertheless, it was his first run for over two months, he should be fitter for the experience and if it does not have the impact of draining him too much, he can be competitive in ordinary company. Michael Scudamore has a low strike rate in the division however and those of his who have won, did so after more than two runs over hurdles.
Yorkshire Gold bg Nikki Evans f4-1-0 (85) 87
Muhaarar (Intikhab){20-c}(1.00) 3/2 Insoumis 1st Claiming Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2016
Currently rated 85 on the flat, Yorkshire Gold brings the highest mark from that sphere into this contest. However, this rating was based on his exploits as a two-year-old where he won a Leicester novice stakes before finishing just over eight lengths seventh in the Acomb Stakes. Afterwards, he finished well beaten in the Rockingham Stakes and was completely tailed off on his sole start at three in a Newcastle handicap last June. Such was his decline, he was allowed to leave Kevin Ryan for 1,500 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale to join Denis Gerard Hogan. Though entered for a couple of races, he never saw the racecourse in Ireland and he changed hands once again to join a Nikki Evans yard without a winning juvenile hurdler in fifteen. There is not a great deal of optimism to be drawn from the pedigree either as while Muhaarar, a son of Oasis Dream has yet to be tested in the sphere, the closest hurdles winner on the damline did so in claiming company. Yorkshire Gold's sole win came on heavy ground, but that is the extent of positives in the profile.
Kimberley bf Oliver Greenall f6-0-1 (68) 74 j2-0-0 (-) 62 52
Oasis Dream (High Chaparral){8-d}(1.00) 0.5 Moon Of Baroda 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2019
Running creditably without winning in six runs for James Fanshawe, Kimberley joined Oliver Greenall for 10,500 guineas. She jumped poorly and weakened tamely on her hurdling debut at Doncaster, and drifted to 150/1 from a third of that price to make amends at Ludlow a fortnight ago. Racing in the rear, she was big, slow and untidy over the early obstacles before losing touch and finishing a forty-one length ninth. Though on form, this was an improvement on her Doncaster outing, she offers little encouragement going forward at this juncture.
Strong prospects
1. Goodbye Stranger
Reasonable prospects
2. Sage Advice
3. Cabot Cliffs
Feasible prospects
4. Admiral Balko
Moderate prospects
5. Balzac
6. Caldwell
Negligible prospects
7. Alberic
8. Kimberley
9. Yorkshire Gold
Triumph Odds
Sage Advice 33/1 (32)
Goodbye Stranger 33/1 (42)
Fred Winter
Sage Advice 25/1
Cabot Cliffs chg Dan Skelton f4-0-0 (66) 68 j3-1-1 (125) 119 129
Gleneagles (Halling){9-f}(0.71) 2/1 Rougham 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2010
Though no better than a fair maiden on the flat for Charlie Hills, Cabot Cliffs made a winning hurdling debut at Uttoxeter and followed up with an eight length third in the Wensleydale Hurdle. He was last seen in the Prestbury Juvenile at Cheltenham back in November where he was beaten by Duffle Coat by over twice the margin than at Wetherby. While he mostly jumps well when given free reign, this can often be his undoing as his headstrong style has been a factor in his failing to fully see out his races. The sharper circuit at Warwick might help mitigate against this, and the yard is enjoying a good spell of form at the moment. In terms of form already in the book, Cabot Cliffs has the strongest coming into this contest. However, coming back from an eight week break might make him too fresh for his own good and with his constitution being questionable, he may be vulnerable in what is a competitive affair.
Goodbye Stranger bg Nicky Henderson j1-1-0 (-) 114 117
Kapgarde (Muhtathir){14-c}(0.82) 1/0 Romaneda 2nd 3YO Newcomers Hurdle, Pau 2013
Making his racecourse debut in a juvenile hurdle made Goodbye Stranger something of an anomaly for trainer Nicky Henderson. Notwithstanding, this son of Kapgarde and relative of numerous successful juveniles was able to find the winner's enclosure on the first time of asking at Newbury in December. His introduction did not begin with a great deal of promise as he was steady and untidy over the first few flights and looked momentarily in danger of becoming detached. Nevertheless, he picked up the bit after urgings from his rider, settled into a better jumping rhythm and was even taking a pull passing the cross fence. While closer to last than first turning for home, he was within a length of the leaders at the distance and although untidy jumps at the last two compromised his momentum, he was able to rally on the run-in and ran out a fairly comfortable winner to the tune of a length and a quarter. The bare form is not extraordinary but it does carry some substance as the first seven have either placed or finished close on subsequent outings in hurdles or jumpers bumpers. Nicky Henderson has two winners and a second from three runners in this contest and Goodbye Stranger was selected over Heross Du Seuil to participate here. While on bare form, he has the most to find of the three winners, he also has considerable scope for improvement and with this Triumph entry being the likeliest to appreciate the ground, he comes into the race with commanding attributes.
Sage Advice bg Dr Richard Newland f6-1-3 (79) 85 j1-1-0 (-) 124 126
Make Believe (Danehill Dancer){16-g}(1.15) 2/1 Lochalsh 1st Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2015
Progressive in his six runs for Joseph G Murphy in Ireland, Sage Advice won a soft ground, ten furlong Cork maiden on his penultimate flat start, before finishing third in a Tipperary handicap off 80. After fetching 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, whereafter he underwent a wind operation. This in conjunction with his free sweating antics on the flat gave cause for concern ahead of his hurdling debut at Kempton twenty-five days ago. Nevertheless, he attracted support throughout the day and this momentum was sustained in the ring where he was sent off as 7/4 favourite. Though he was certainly keen over the first half mile, he was not lathered in sweat and he settled adequately for the bulk of the contest. Tracking the leaders throughout, he moved into strong contention turning for home and shared the lead jumping the penultimate flight. After being shaken up on the run to the last, he jumped it with an advantage of a couple of lengths which was comfortably extended to half a dozen by the time he passed the line under a motionless Sam Twiston-Davies. Apart from being somewhat large and untidy at the first, and rather skewing at two out when diving to his right, Sage Advice jumped nicely for a hurdling debutant and with his superiority value for a few more lengths than the winning margin, this was a highly promising introduction. While he has shown form on soft, he may not want it quite as testing as it might be tomorrow and his jumping to the right at Kempton is a slight misgiving. Notwithstanding, Sage Advice has every right to hold a Triumph entry and his prospects are difficult to dismiss.
Admiral Balko bbg Nick Williams j1-0-1 (-) 94 103
Balko (Davidoff){5-e}(0.50) 1/0 Singaminnie 6th Prix de Beaune (Listed), Enghien 2015
Admiral Balko was one of eight unraced horses from the Williams yard to make his debut in juvenile hurdles this season, and one of four to runner-up first time when starting out at Bangor back in November. Sharing the pacemaking duties up to the fifth, he established a clear lead shortly after and was the last horse to come off the bridle. He was outpaced by the winner from the distance, but was able to maintain his superiority over the third placed horse. His jumping was decent for a debutant and counted only insignificant errors in the early stages before pressure caused him to be slightly low at the penultimate flight, and close and slow over the last. Due to the race's small field and slow, the bare form is not worth a great deal and only the winning Pyramid Place has since done anything of note. It was still a perfectly satisfactory introduction and he should benefit for the experience, although he would have something to find with the principals.
Alberic bg Nick Williams j2-0-0 (-) 81 82
Poliglote (Kahyasi){2-c}(0.89) 1/0 Khayance 1st 3YO Chase, Enghien 2011
Essentially a stablemate of Admiral Balko, Alberic is related to juveniles but is probably bred to come into his own with a season or two under his girth. Pulled up on his racecourse debut at Huntingdon, he fared not much better when last seen finishing a twenty-five length sixth over this course and distance in December. His jumping improved between those races but still left something to be desired and he makes little appeal in open company at this juncture.
Balzac bg Evan Williams f2-1-0 (82) 81
Lope De Vega (Montjeu){8-f}(0.93) 0.5 Cerberus 6th Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2020
Having two runs for Ed Walker in as many years, Balzac made his debut at Sandown in September 2019 finishing twelve lengths behind multiple Group 1 winner Palace Pier. Following operations to his wind and tackle, his return came at Newbury back in July where he raced freely and made all to comfortably take a twelve furlong novice stakes. After fetching 30,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale, he was withdrawn from engagements at Sandown and Nottingham after refusing to enter the stalls and has since switched to Evan Williams for a hurdling career. The bulk of his new trainer's winning juveniles used to come during the summer months, and his record in the division since 2017/18 reads as one winner from fifty-three starts, although State Crown and Balkardy have ran with credit for him this term. Lope De Vega's record as a sire in this discipline is little better than moderate, but the dam did produce the useful juvenile Cerberus. Balzac would be due some consideration in an ordinary contest, but is in testing company for a newcomer at a venue where experience is invariably a useful asset.
Caldwell bc Michael Scudamore f3-0-2 (-) 73 j1-0-1 (-) 99 86
Dansili (Barathea){13-c}(1.67) 1/1 Quebec 1st Novices' Hurdle, Market Rasen 2015
Placed on the first two of his three starts for Dermot Weld, Caldwell joined his new connections for 28,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. The standard of flat form is perfectly respectable in the context of this discipline and he is a brother to two winning hurdlers. While he was withdrawn on account of heavy ground at Listowel, he was not entirely unsuited by the conditions at Wetherby where he received warm market support through the day. However, a conspicuous misgiving from the flat was his peculiar headcarriage and this translated into a very sloppy round of jumping on his hurdles debut. He steadied into the first where he jumped big and to the left, was big and left at the second, steadied and got close to the third, was close and skewed over the fourth, close again into the fifth, clipped the top and stumbled on landing at the sixth (this was his best jump of the race), skewed and went left at the seventh and eighth and was big and skewed over the last. Tracking the leader throughout, he was taken the scenic route and was still in contention at the top of the straight. The futility of his task revealed itself as the race began to wrap up and rather sensibly, he was given nothing harsher than a hands and heels ride and was allowed to come home in his own time with almost fifty lengths in hand over his remaining opponents. Though he was beaten a distance, it was still a promising debut as in the absence of Hacker des Places, he would have been a very impressive winner in spite of the litany of jumping errors. His jumping absolutely needs to improve and he might also benefit from a date with a pair of scissors which has not happened in the past couple of weeks. Nevertheless, it was his first run for over two months, he should be fitter for the experience and if it does not have the impact of draining him too much, he can be competitive in ordinary company. Michael Scudamore has a low strike rate in the division however and those of his who have won, did so after more than two runs over hurdles.
Yorkshire Gold bg Nikki Evans f4-1-0 (85) 87
Muhaarar (Intikhab){20-c}(1.00) 3/2 Insoumis 1st Claiming Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2016
Currently rated 85 on the flat, Yorkshire Gold brings the highest mark from that sphere into this contest. However, this rating was based on his exploits as a two-year-old where he won a Leicester novice stakes before finishing just over eight lengths seventh in the Acomb Stakes. Afterwards, he finished well beaten in the Rockingham Stakes and was completely tailed off on his sole start at three in a Newcastle handicap last June. Such was his decline, he was allowed to leave Kevin Ryan for 1,500 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale to join Denis Gerard Hogan. Though entered for a couple of races, he never saw the racecourse in Ireland and he changed hands once again to join a Nikki Evans yard without a winning juvenile hurdler in fifteen. There is not a great deal of optimism to be drawn from the pedigree either as while Muhaarar, a son of Oasis Dream has yet to be tested in the sphere, the closest hurdles winner on the damline did so in claiming company. Yorkshire Gold's sole win came on heavy ground, but that is the extent of positives in the profile.
Kimberley bf Oliver Greenall f6-0-1 (68) 74 j2-0-0 (-) 62 52
Oasis Dream (High Chaparral){8-d}(1.00) 0.5 Moon Of Baroda 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2019
Running creditably without winning in six runs for James Fanshawe, Kimberley joined Oliver Greenall for 10,500 guineas. She jumped poorly and weakened tamely on her hurdling debut at Doncaster, and drifted to 150/1 from a third of that price to make amends at Ludlow a fortnight ago. Racing in the rear, she was big, slow and untidy over the early obstacles before losing touch and finishing a forty-one length ninth. Though on form, this was an improvement on her Doncaster outing, she offers little encouragement going forward at this juncture.
Strong prospects
1. Goodbye Stranger
Reasonable prospects
2. Sage Advice
3. Cabot Cliffs
Feasible prospects
4. Admiral Balko
Moderate prospects
5. Balzac
6. Caldwell
Negligible prospects
7. Alberic
8. Kimberley
9. Yorkshire Gold
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