Announcement

Collapse

Fat Jockey Patrons

Fat Jockey is a horse racing community focused on all the big races in the UK and Ireland. We don't charge users but if you have found the site useful then any support towards the running costs is appreciated.
Become a Patron!

You can also make a one-off donation here:
See more
See less

Juvenile Hurdlers 2020/2021

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Tomorrow's juvenile hurdle will be the third held at Warwick this season, and is a regular feature on the calendar. Though one of the stronger races held at the venue, it does not have a rich history of producing top class types. Hawk High and Dhaafer, winners in 2014 and 2011, would finish first and third in respectively their Fred Winters, while 2009 winner Trenchant would follow up in that season's Dovecote at Kempton. Nevertheless, this year's edition looks well up to scratch as it features three previous winners who each look potentially useful. Warwick's average winning DIs of 1.40 median, 1.55 mean, are among the highest in the country, although they drop to 1.00 and 1.23 for this particular contest and with the ground currently riding as heavy, tomorrows race will likely take some getting. The clear round rate of 94.92% is one of the lower ones in the country, and newcomers have a below average record at the venue. Notwithstanding, the high strike rate of odds-on favourites and below average winning SPs indicate that the results are largely straightforward.

    Triumph Odds
    Sage Advice 33/1 (32)
    Goodbye Stranger 33/1 (42)

    Fred Winter
    Sage Advice 25/1

    Cabot Cliffs chg Dan Skelton f4-0-0 (66) 68 j3-1-1 (125) 119 129
    Gleneagles (Halling){9-f}(0.71) 2/1 Rougham 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2010
    Though no better than a fair maiden on the flat for Charlie Hills, Cabot Cliffs made a winning hurdling debut at Uttoxeter and followed up with an eight length third in the Wensleydale Hurdle. He was last seen in the Prestbury Juvenile at Cheltenham back in November where he was beaten by Duffle Coat by over twice the margin than at Wetherby. While he mostly jumps well when given free reign, this can often be his undoing as his headstrong style has been a factor in his failing to fully see out his races. The sharper circuit at Warwick might help mitigate against this, and the yard is enjoying a good spell of form at the moment. In terms of form already in the book, Cabot Cliffs has the strongest coming into this contest. However, coming back from an eight week break might make him too fresh for his own good and with his constitution being questionable, he may be vulnerable in what is a competitive affair.

    Goodbye Stranger bg Nicky Henderson j1-1-0 (-) 114 117
    Kapgarde (Muhtathir){14-c}(0.82) 1/0 Romaneda 2nd 3YO Newcomers Hurdle, Pau 2013
    Making his racecourse debut in a juvenile hurdle made Goodbye Stranger something of an anomaly for trainer Nicky Henderson. Notwithstanding, this son of Kapgarde and relative of numerous successful juveniles was able to find the winner's enclosure on the first time of asking at Newbury in December. His introduction did not begin with a great deal of promise as he was steady and untidy over the first few flights and looked momentarily in danger of becoming detached. Nevertheless, he picked up the bit after urgings from his rider, settled into a better jumping rhythm and was even taking a pull passing the cross fence. While closer to last than first turning for home, he was within a length of the leaders at the distance and although untidy jumps at the last two compromised his momentum, he was able to rally on the run-in and ran out a fairly comfortable winner to the tune of a length and a quarter. The bare form is not extraordinary but it does carry some substance as the first seven have either placed or finished close on subsequent outings in hurdles or jumpers bumpers. Nicky Henderson has two winners and a second from three runners in this contest and Goodbye Stranger was selected over Heross Du Seuil to participate here. While on bare form, he has the most to find of the three winners, he also has considerable scope for improvement and with this Triumph entry being the likeliest to appreciate the ground, he comes into the race with commanding attributes.

    Sage Advice bg Dr Richard Newland f6-1-3 (79) 85 j1-1-0 (-) 124 126
    Make Believe (Danehill Dancer){16-g}(1.15) 2/1 Lochalsh 1st Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2015
    Progressive in his six runs for Joseph G Murphy in Ireland, Sage Advice won a soft ground, ten furlong Cork maiden on his penultimate flat start, before finishing third in a Tipperary handicap off 80. After fetching 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, whereafter he underwent a wind operation. This in conjunction with his free sweating antics on the flat gave cause for concern ahead of his hurdling debut at Kempton twenty-five days ago. Nevertheless, he attracted support throughout the day and this momentum was sustained in the ring where he was sent off as 7/4 favourite. Though he was certainly keen over the first half mile, he was not lathered in sweat and he settled adequately for the bulk of the contest. Tracking the leaders throughout, he moved into strong contention turning for home and shared the lead jumping the penultimate flight. After being shaken up on the run to the last, he jumped it with an advantage of a couple of lengths which was comfortably extended to half a dozen by the time he passed the line under a motionless Sam Twiston-Davies. Apart from being somewhat large and untidy at the first, and rather skewing at two out when diving to his right, Sage Advice jumped nicely for a hurdling debutant and with his superiority value for a few more lengths than the winning margin, this was a highly promising introduction. While he has shown form on soft, he may not want it quite as testing as it might be tomorrow and his jumping to the right at Kempton is a slight misgiving. Notwithstanding, Sage Advice has every right to hold a Triumph entry and his prospects are difficult to dismiss.

    Admiral Balko bbg Nick Williams j1-0-1 (-) 94 103
    Balko (Davidoff){5-e}(0.50) 1/0 Singaminnie 6th Prix de Beaune (Listed), Enghien 2015
    Admiral Balko was one of eight unraced horses from the Williams yard to make his debut in juvenile hurdles this season, and one of four to runner-up first time when starting out at Bangor back in November. Sharing the pacemaking duties up to the fifth, he established a clear lead shortly after and was the last horse to come off the bridle. He was outpaced by the winner from the distance, but was able to maintain his superiority over the third placed horse. His jumping was decent for a debutant and counted only insignificant errors in the early stages before pressure caused him to be slightly low at the penultimate flight, and close and slow over the last. Due to the race's small field and slow, the bare form is not worth a great deal and only the winning Pyramid Place has since done anything of note. It was still a perfectly satisfactory introduction and he should benefit for the experience, although he would have something to find with the principals.

    Alberic bg Nick Williams j2-0-0 (-) 81 82
    Poliglote (Kahyasi){2-c}(0.89) 1/0 Khayance 1st 3YO Chase, Enghien 2011
    Essentially a stablemate of Admiral Balko, Alberic is related to juveniles but is probably bred to come into his own with a season or two under his girth. Pulled up on his racecourse debut at Huntingdon, he fared not much better when last seen finishing a twenty-five length sixth over this course and distance in December. His jumping improved between those races but still left something to be desired and he makes little appeal in open company at this juncture.

    Balzac bg Evan Williams f2-1-0 (82) 81
    Lope De Vega (Montjeu){8-f}(0.93) 0.5 Cerberus 6th Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2020
    Having two runs for Ed Walker in as many years, Balzac made his debut at Sandown in September 2019 finishing twelve lengths behind multiple Group 1 winner Palace Pier. Following operations to his wind and tackle, his return came at Newbury back in July where he raced freely and made all to comfortably take a twelve furlong novice stakes. After fetching 30,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale, he was withdrawn from engagements at Sandown and Nottingham after refusing to enter the stalls and has since switched to Evan Williams for a hurdling career. The bulk of his new trainer's winning juveniles used to come during the summer months, and his record in the division since 2017/18 reads as one winner from fifty-three starts, although State Crown and Balkardy have ran with credit for him this term. Lope De Vega's record as a sire in this discipline is little better than moderate, but the dam did produce the useful juvenile Cerberus. Balzac would be due some consideration in an ordinary contest, but is in testing company for a newcomer at a venue where experience is invariably a useful asset.

    Caldwell bc Michael Scudamore f3-0-2 (-) 73 j1-0-1 (-) 99 86
    Dansili (Barathea){13-c}(1.67) 1/1 Quebec 1st Novices' Hurdle, Market Rasen 2015
    Placed on the first two of his three starts for Dermot Weld, Caldwell joined his new connections for 28,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. The standard of flat form is perfectly respectable in the context of this discipline and he is a brother to two winning hurdlers. While he was withdrawn on account of heavy ground at Listowel, he was not entirely unsuited by the conditions at Wetherby where he received warm market support through the day. However, a conspicuous misgiving from the flat was his peculiar headcarriage and this translated into a very sloppy round of jumping on his hurdles debut. He steadied into the first where he jumped big and to the left, was big and left at the second, steadied and got close to the third, was close and skewed over the fourth, close again into the fifth, clipped the top and stumbled on landing at the sixth (this was his best jump of the race), skewed and went left at the seventh and eighth and was big and skewed over the last. Tracking the leader throughout, he was taken the scenic route and was still in contention at the top of the straight. The futility of his task revealed itself as the race began to wrap up and rather sensibly, he was given nothing harsher than a hands and heels ride and was allowed to come home in his own time with almost fifty lengths in hand over his remaining opponents. Though he was beaten a distance, it was still a promising debut as in the absence of Hacker des Places, he would have been a very impressive winner in spite of the litany of jumping errors. His jumping absolutely needs to improve and he might also benefit from a date with a pair of scissors which has not happened in the past couple of weeks. Nevertheless, it was his first run for over two months, he should be fitter for the experience and if it does not have the impact of draining him too much, he can be competitive in ordinary company. Michael Scudamore has a low strike rate in the division however and those of his who have won, did so after more than two runs over hurdles.

    Yorkshire Gold bg Nikki Evans f4-1-0 (85) 87
    Muhaarar (Intikhab){20-c}(1.00) 3/2 Insoumis 1st Claiming Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2016
    Currently rated 85 on the flat, Yorkshire Gold brings the highest mark from that sphere into this contest. However, this rating was based on his exploits as a two-year-old where he won a Leicester novice stakes before finishing just over eight lengths seventh in the Acomb Stakes. Afterwards, he finished well beaten in the Rockingham Stakes and was completely tailed off on his sole start at three in a Newcastle handicap last June. Such was his decline, he was allowed to leave Kevin Ryan for 1,500 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale to join Denis Gerard Hogan. Though entered for a couple of races, he never saw the racecourse in Ireland and he changed hands once again to join a Nikki Evans yard without a winning juvenile hurdler in fifteen. There is not a great deal of optimism to be drawn from the pedigree either as while Muhaarar, a son of Oasis Dream has yet to be tested in the sphere, the closest hurdles winner on the damline did so in claiming company. Yorkshire Gold's sole win came on heavy ground, but that is the extent of positives in the profile.

    Kimberley bf Oliver Greenall f6-0-1 (68) 74 j2-0-0 (-) 62 52
    Oasis Dream (High Chaparral){8-d}(1.00) 0.5 Moon Of Baroda 2nd Maiden Hurdle, Ludlow 2019
    Running creditably without winning in six runs for James Fanshawe, Kimberley joined Oliver Greenall for 10,500 guineas. She jumped poorly and weakened tamely on her hurdling debut at Doncaster, and drifted to 150/1 from a third of that price to make amends at Ludlow a fortnight ago. Racing in the rear, she was big, slow and untidy over the early obstacles before losing touch and finishing a forty-one length ninth. Though on form, this was an improvement on her Doncaster outing, she offers little encouragement going forward at this juncture.

    Strong prospects
    1. Goodbye Stranger
    Reasonable prospects
    2. Sage Advice
    3. Cabot Cliffs
    Feasible prospects
    4. Admiral Balko
    Moderate prospects
    5. Balzac
    6. Caldwell
    Negligible prospects
    7. Alberic
    8. Kimberley
    9. Yorkshire Gold

    Comment


    • Going to drop some reviews then post the preview for Catterick's contest tomorrow. This batch should take us from the 18th to the 23rd of January but if I miss anything then let me know...

      PUNCHESTOWN 18th January
      Preview review
      No real preview was written for the race and while Coltor looked the stronger of the two market leaders, which was eventually reflected in the betting, this did not play out in the race. Curious Bride did have her formline with Autumn Evening highlighted in the write up along with Noel Meade's record in the race and the natural improvement was sufficient for her success.

      Race review
      The first couple of editions of this maiden hurdle have hardly set the world alight, and the latest renewal looked par for the course. Nevertheless, while the front nine were covered by just over sixteen lengths, they all had the potential to be reasonable types. There was some bunching issues over the first couple of flights, but none of the first five were badly affected. The pace was an even one and though the winning time was four seconds slower than in the handicap, the first six furlongs were also run four seconds slower. Moreover, the winning time was still faster than those posted by Alexei Bronsky and Druid's Altar earlier in the season so there is little cause for concern on that front. Call Me Rocky made a forced error at a critical stage of the race, but his performance excepted, the finishing order is perfectly feasible and the form looks reliable as it stands.

      Curious Bride had began to disappoint on the flat, but went into her hurdling debut at Cork in progressive form and was well backed prior to finding only Autumn Evening too good. She jumped well for the most part, and the form has since been vindicated by the winner's creditable performances in better company. After missing an intended engagement back at Cork a fortnight earlier, she was a steady fourth favourite in a contest which her trainer saddled the runner-up in 2019. Leading from the outset, she set an even gallop and apart from going through the top at the first and seventh, her cause was helped by another good round of jumping. She was briefly headed on the approach to the last, but jumped cleaner than her rival who, despite being more substantially built, rather shirked the battle and allowed Curious Bride to gallop strongly to pass the line the best part of two lengths to the good. Her progression has continued since winning a Cork handicap in September and she is proving herself a solid recruit to the division. Versatile with regards to the ground, there is evidence in her pedigree that suggests she can continue to improve with age which, in conjunction with her fluent hurdling, could see her make an impact beyond this level. 121

      Palm Beach won a reasonable maiden on the second of his flat starts and followed up with a good second to Crassus at Limerick at the start of December. His jumping was fairly novicey on that occasion but apart from getting close to three out, and being slightly tired over the last, was better on his return to the venue on Boxing Day. Sent off odds-on favourite he appeared to make the winning move when jumping to the front at the penultimate flight, but was outbattled in the second time in as many races against a 100/1 shot. He was given the benefit of the doubt insofar as his resolve is concerned, but was uneasy in the market here and after another reasonable round capped off by an untidy jump at the last which cost him momentum, wanted nothing further to do with the battle for first place. Nevertheless, this performance still marks a new career best for this lightly raced colt, and the rating of 119 is likely a generous one. The talent is there for him to win either a maiden or a handicap, but he would not be the safest conveyance if finding himself in a physical duel. 126

      Zoffanien was a fairly useful dual winner on the flat in France and made a pleasing start to his hurdling career at Limerick behind Crassus and Palm Beach. However, his jumping was nowhere near as tidy on his return to the venue on Boxing Day as after being badly baulked at the first, was hesitant and untidy at the second. While he was better over the next few, his round concluded with a series of untidy jumps and he was unable to match his debut performance. Though he was easy to back in the market here, a return to form was not out of the question, particularly as he jumped soundly save for diving at three out. Held up in midfield, the aforementioned error came as the race was unfolding. A quick, if rash, jump two out put him back among the leading group. The front pair managed to get first run and he still had six horses ahead of him at the distance. Nevertheless, he finished much the fastest of the chasing group and closed to within five lengths of the front two with three and a half lengths in hand of the remainder. He is another with the capacity to win at this level, and his mark of 116 is very workable. 122

      Coltor began his career at the end of August, and was able to win a Killarney maiden on the third time of asking. By Free Eagle and related to Limini, Call My Guest and Vintage Crop, he is bred to flourish in the sphere and was not unbacked ahead of a traditionally strong Leopardstown maiden hurdle during the festive meeting. He jumped well for the most part but shaped very much like a stayer when finishing a distant second to French Aseel. Backed into favouritism here, he raced in much closer order, tracking the leaders throughout. However, he was unable to match the front pair turning for home and could only stay on the one pace up the straight. This was another commendable effort and apart from getting close to the second, posted a solid round of jumping. He is improving with each run, although he is already looking as though a thorough test is essential to his future prospects. 118

      Complete Fantasy is the most experienced juvenile hurdler trained in Ireland, and was making his seventh appearance of the season here. He is a consistent sort having reached the first four in as many recent outings, but two facets of that consistency are that he usually finds a few too strong and is prone to making occasional errors. This outing was no different as he reached at the first, was hesitant and slow at the second, steep at the fifth and steady going into the last. He was always racing prominently and was close enough if good enough when the race entered its concluding phase. However, he could neither match the pace of the front two or repel the challenges of the third or fourth. His mark of 112 is undoubtedly fair, but he will remain vulnerable at this level and against better handicapped sorts. 117

      Star Of Cashel won three times on the flat, and his flat rating of 89 is the highest brought into this contest. He was a drifter before his hurdling debut at Limerick and completely lacked fluency on his introduction to the sphere. It was an appreciable amount of class which allowed Star Of Cashel to finish as close as he did in fifth and could be quite useful should he become more fluent. The early signs were not encouraging here however as he was very steady approaching the first where he blundered, and was not much better at the next. His jumping did improve before unravelling again in the closing stages and a steady jump at the last surmised his endeavour. He kept on to just regain sixth from the tenderly ridden Trebizond, but did not build on his debut effort and needs to improve his hurdling before he can match his flat ability. 114

      Trebizond initially cost Godolphin 300,000 guineas as a yearling, but this close relative of Palace Pier never ran on the flat and joined Henry de Bromhead for nearly a tenth of the original price last September. Unraced newcomers generally have a poor record in the sphere. Nevertheless, with Rachael Blackmore on board for his debut at Leopardstown, Trebizond was sent off third favourite at 5/1. He was fresh early without being worryingly keen, but made a tremendous blunder at the first and skewed in mid air at the third. The remainder of his hurdlers were taken well enough and having initially been ridden conservatively, he stayed on at one pace on the run-in to reach his best position inside the final half-furlong. Halving in price throughout the day, he somewhat learned from his debut while still leaving plenty of work to be done having made novicey errors at the third, fourth and last. While he tracked the leaders throughout, he was unable to ever look threatening and was allowed to coast home after his final flight blunder. Despite being comfortably held in seventh, he improved from a form perspective and he has plenty of scope to progress further. 114

      Easca Peasca won a Fairyhouse handicap off 65 on the last of his nine starts for John Oxx, and was the best placed finisher of the five hurdling debutants in this contest. Racing just behind the leading group, he jumped well for a debutant until getting close to the penultimate flight and making a sloppy mess of the last. He was never able to reach a threatening position and ultimately finished rather tired. Nevertheless, this was his first outing after 109 days and as he hurdled fluently for much of the contest, there is every reason to imagine he can build on this performance. 112

      Pretorius ran twice in Germany for Sascha Smrczek without achieving a great deal, and put on quite the performance when unshipping his rider and running loose ahead of his intended debut at this venue on New Year's Eve. Though he managed to clear a bank fence during his adventure, he all but unseated his rider at the first and Jonathan Moore did as well to maintain the partnership as Pretorius did to stay on his feet. This error was not entirely of his own doing however as he was baulked on the approach to the flight and was also impeded at the second to less dramatic effect. He jumped well afterwards in midfield without moving into a challenging position and his round finished with more cautious jumps as a result of his exertions. This was not an outing devoid of promise, and though he looks rather limited overall, it will be interesting to see how he fares with the benefit of a clear round. 112

      Saeer ran four times for Sir Michael Stoute, and with a flat rating of 63, joined Gordon Elliott for 9,000 guineas. Horses leaving Freemason Lodge generally struggle to improve on their flat form and he was the least fancied of his yard's three runners at Punchestown on new year's eve.. Held up in midfield, he never looked like getting competitive and still had seven ahead of him at the distance. He usurped three of those rivals but was still beaten forty-four lengths in the end. His hurdling had been reasonable prior to a slow jump at the sixth, and the round was capped off by a pair of tired leaps at the final two flights. Though the better fancied of the Elliott pair here, he was still an unfancied 40/1. While he jumped well enough and made some headway during the contest, he was never better than midfield and finished twenty-three lengths behind the winner. This was an improvement on his debut effort, but he would make little imminent appeal beyond moderate company. 105

      Call Me Rocky was the stable's second string behind Zoffanien both here and on his jumps debut at Limerick where he drifted from 25/1 to 40/1 in the market. His flat form, including a maiden win at Limerick and a second in a heavy ground handicap off 78 on his penultimate start, entitled him to a fair chance. However, it got off to a perilous start when he was badly baulked at the first hurdle. Nevertheless, he was able to settle into a rhythm and apart from getting close to the third, put in a solid round of jumping on his way to finishing ahead of his stablemate in third. Best fancied of the Hogan runners this time, he was getting niggled along but was still in contention when squeezed out on the approach to the penultimate flight where he made a terrible blunder which effectively ended his chances. An attempt was made to regain momentum but the race was over by the time he jumped big over the last. This was a regression on his debut but it is probably fair to draw a line through this outing. 96

      Lady Kapalua has ran exclusively over hurdles to this point, and her first two outings at Roscommon in August, and Fairyhouse last month, were poor. She posted her best effort to date at the venue on new years eve, but was still beaten by nearly sixty lengths. Unfancied once again, she raced in the rear, made mistakes at several flights but managed to pass several rivals to finish a thirty-two length twelfth. Though a long way from useful, this was another career best and her mark of 86 is probably a fair one if she is able to run off such a perch. 89

      Brides Hill was making her racecourse debut, but while she started at 200/1, she is at least related to winning hurdlers. Held up in the rear, she jumped poorly at most flights but was able to make some headway without ever threatening. She can improve for the experience. 89

      French Asset placed second on his penultimate flat outing for Sir Michael Stoute, but was disappointing on his hurdles debut at Galway in October and has been poor in two subsequent starts. Unfancied at 150/1, he was no better here racing keenly in the rear and making several mistakes, some bad, before finishing tailed off. His mark of 95 is generous on the best of his flat form, but is entirely unwarranted on what he has shown over hurdles. 76

      Knight Of Malta placed twice for Aiden O'Brien, and again for his stable debut in a Dundalk maiden last month. However, he finished down the field in a claimer ten days prior to his hurdling debut where he was completely unfancied in the market. Racing in rear, he completely lacked fluency and was ultimately tailed off. He is capable of better on his flat form, but will need to show some aptitude in the meantime. 75

      Baltinglass Hill had a rating of 75 after three flat outings for Michael Grassick, but that was at least a stone higher than his performances and he did next to nothing on his hurdles debut at Gowran Park in November. He was better here by virtue of his not being detached from the start, and apart from tripping over the first, did not jump abhorrently. Nevertheless, he probably sweated more before the race than during and did not leave the rear of the field. 67

      Turkestan was twice beaten off 75 in a pair of handicaps for Roger Varian before joining his new yard for 11,000 guineas at the Tattersalls August sale. Following a 150 day break, he was keen in the early stages, but jumped reasonable save for slight errors at the second and eighth. There was no other promise in this debut but he might be capable of better when less fresh. 47

      Raamez won as a two-year-old for John Hammond and was not disgraced on his first outing for Fran?ois Rohaut back in May. However, his form deteriorated in the meantime and he fetched just 20,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Making his hurdling debut on new year's eve, he was held up in mid-division and fluent enough in the early stages. However, his jumping fell to pieces after getting very close to the fourth and was a spent force with half a mile to run. This performance in conjunction with his regressive flat form left him with much to answer, and he emerged from his latest outing with even greater cause for concern. His hurdling stood up better, but was still completely tailed off which deprives him of excuses related to fitness or aptitude. 15

      Poetica's first two runs over hurdles could be ignored as her saddle slipped at Cork, and she was hampered and unseated early on at Leopardstown. Starting at 150/1, she managed to complete at Cork a fortnight prior, but was in the rear throughout, was very steady and slow at all of the hurdles where she was picked up by the camera, and finished seventy-three lengths last of seventeen. Less could be made of this performance as she was in the rear but jumping better before missing the sixth and taking a careless fall. 0

      Army Of One made her stable/hurdles debut in the Listed race at Aintree early in December, but finished ninety lengths behind the winner and would have been beaten further had they jumped more than five hurdles. Unfancied beforehand her next outing at Limerick, she was always closer to last than first and made errors, some of them quite bad, at each and every hurdle. Her disappointing form was reflected in her 150/1 price and after running keenly, her jumping was slightly better but still featured some nervy errors. She was likely to finish in around thirteenth, which would have been her best effort to date, when her jockey appeared to fall off at the last. Still has plenty to prove. 84

      Comment


      • Sweet Sixteen 19/01/2021 Clonmel 2m Mares Maiden Hurdle
        Fair at best as a two year old for Amy Murphy, Sweet Sixteen's first efforts over hurdles were not without promise finishing third at Tipperary and fourth behind Duffle Coat at Punchestown. She came into this contest after a break of 133 days, and drifted from 13/2 in the morning to 11/1 at the off. Held up towards the back, she jumped reasonably well save for being slightly untidy at the third, and steady going into the sixth. From there, she was pushed along and was left well behind by the leaders. Though better placed than six rivals, she was still beaten almost a hundred lengths and ultimately posted a flat performance. 25

        Presgrave 19/01/2021 Exeter 2m1f Maiden Hurdle
        Presgrave managed a third in a Dundalk maiden for Joseph O'Brien last March, and was finishing midfield off 74 and 70 prior to joining Jimmy Frost. He lacked fluency when unfancied on his hurdling debut at Taunton prior to pulling up, and was sent off at 400/1 here. Held up in the rear, his jumping was not attrocious to begin with, merely clipping the second and the third. However, he was never able to progress through the race, and his jumping deteriorated as he finished a tired horse. He has come nowhere near matching his flat form thus far. 47

        Call Me Sainte 19/01/2021 Exeter 2m1f Maiden Hurdle
        Though bred to make a juvenile hurdler, Call Me Sainte made an inauspicious debut in a bumper here in October, and a wind operation and application of hood did nothing for her performance at Doncaster last month. While she settled somewhat better here, her hurdling was even more erratic as she went badly left at several flights and rarely jumped without making an error. This was a regression on an already poor hurdling debut. 39

        Island Nation 20/01/2021 Newbury 2m?f Novices' Hurdle
        Island Nation won two of his last three starts on the flat, with those wins coming either side of a short head second at Kempton. These efforts all came over around twelve furlongs on the all-weather where the ground was riding slower than standard, and several of those who reached the frame on the last two outings have several subsequent wins amongst them. Ending his spell with Heather Main rated 75, he joined Olly Murphy for 21,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Sire Ruler Of The World had one winning juvenile from five prior to this outing, and the damline featured a couple of winners including the useful Tomorrow Mystery at 2/1, and Montefeltro at 3/1. While not totally unfancied ahead of his hurdling debut, Island Nation drifted from 10/1 to 14/1 in a market dominated by the winning favourite. Starting off somewhat keen in mid division, he got in very close to the first where he badly skewed and caused his rider to lose his irons. This saw him demoted to a rear position and his jumping was still novicey along the back where he was steady and slow over the second, big and slow over the third, and wandered on the approach to the fifth where he jumped left and hampered himself in a violent fashion. He was still able to make steady progress towards the end of the back and was just behind the leading group turning for home. He began to be niggled along and lost further momentum when reaching at three out and was slow to get away from the penultimate flight. From here, he was unable to make any impression before finishing fifth by the best part of forty lengths. There were hints of promise here, but he will need to improve his hurdling considerably before he reaches his flat ability. 97

        Simply True 20/01/2021 Newbury 2m?f Novices' Hurdle
        Rated 85 after winning a Killarney handicap on his penultimate start for Andrew Oliver, Simply True was thrown in at the deep end for his hurdling debut and beat just one home at Cheltenham behind Adagio in December. These were calmer waters and he was backed in from 66/1 in the morning to 18/1 at the off. Settling in the rear, he had a tendency to wander on the approach to his flights, but was much more assured and competent than at Cheltenham, making his only real error when pecking at the third. However, he was already losing touch leaving the back and was pulled up before jumping the first in the straight. While there is some talent there, and he is clearly thought better than this, Simply True is becoming rather disappointing. 0

        Masterdream 20/01/2021 Chepstow 2m Novices' Hurdle
        A fair maiden on the flat for John Oxx, Masterdream joined Tim Vaughan for a 56,000 guineas which looked quite steep at the time. His first two outings over hurdles did little to alleviate that impression as he jumped poor when tailed off at Sandown, and was last to finish at Taunton near the end of December. Sent off at 150/1 here, he was initially fairly keen in a prominent position, but after blundering at the first, he began to drop back to midfield where he was big over the second flight. His jumping tidied up somewhat but he was never able to make an impression before finishing nearly seventy lengths behind the winner. Though he managed to beat three home, this was a regression on his Taunton showing. 58

        Naizagai 20/01/2021 Newbury 2m?f Handicap Hurdle (118)
        Naizagai had finished in the first three in all five of his hurdles outings prior to this contest, and had acquitted himself well last time when second at Wetherby off 115. Potentially a victim of his own consistency, he was raised three pounds for that effort, but was sent off a steady 6/1 third favourite in this fifteen runner affair. Held up in last place, he was characteristically keen in the early stages but jumped well up to getting close to the fifth. He had only one behind turning for home, but made steady headway in the straight prior to getting close to the penultimate flight. This slight error did not cost him a great deal of momentum, but he still had the best part of a dozen lengths to make up on the fourth and would only pass a fading horse on the run-in to reach this position at the line some twenty lengths behind the third. It would be harsh to suggest he was given too much to do, and the likelier explanation for the distance beaten is that he simply found the ground too testing. An increasingly polished and straightforward type, he remains unchanged off 118 which, while fair on his best form, requires more optimal conditions to reach such a mark. 99

        Frankly Mr Shankly 21/01/2021 Ludlow 2m Novices' Hurdle
        The winner of a ten furlong Chelmsford handicap last August off 72, Frankly Mr Shankly was subsequently thrice beaten and had a wind operation before leaving Michael Bell for the Olly Murphy yard. Sired by Maxios and a sister to the dam of useful French hurdler For Me, he went into his hurdling debut with a tongue tie and hood applied. A race featuring a pair of previous winners, he was sent off a stable 16/1 shot. Having his first run in 101 days, he was very keen in the early phase while held up in the rear of the field. His jumping left plenty to be desired as he made errors at every flight, typically in the form of getting too big before some tired leaps in the closing stages. Some headway was made towards the end of the back, but he was never able to make an impression on the race and would finish a thirty length sixth. There is plenty of scope for improvement, but he needs to settle and jump better before he can leave this outing behind. 93

        Kimberley 21/01/2021 Ludlow 2m Novices' Hurdle
        Kimberley ran creditably without winning in six runs for James Fanshawe before joining Oliver Greenall for 10,500 guineas. She jumped poorly and weakened tamely on her hurdling debut at Doncaster, and drifted to 150/1 from a third of that price to make amends here. Racing in the rear, she was big, slow and untidy over the early obstacles before losing touch and finishing a forty-one length ninth. Though on form, this was an improvement on her Doncaster outing, she offers little encouragement going forward at this juncture. 75

        North Point 21/01/2021 Ludlow 2m Novices' Hurdle
        The stablemate of Kimberley, North Point twice reached the frame for David Elsworth and his hurdling debut at Sedgefield was not without promise despite being well beaten in the end. He had not been seen for 114 days and was very easy to back in the market. Settled in the rear, he was slightly impeded at the first before somewhat hopping over the next two. His jumping was largely fluent from there, but he found himself completely detached and was virtually pulled up in the straight. He might have been in need of this run, but this was still a very flat effort nevertheless. 9

        Brodick 22/01/2021 Musselburgh 2m Mares' Novices' Hurdle
        Rated just 55 on the flat for Karl Burke, Brodick ran green on her hurdling debut over this course and distance in early November. Following wind surgery and an eleven week absence, she was not especially well fancied on her return against older rivals. Running fresh in the rear of the field, she gave the first two flights a fair deal of air and also had a habit of wandering into her hurdles. She was outpaced on the turn for home but plugged on in the straight without threatening to get involved for win or place. Though her inexperience was telling, this was a slight improvement on her debut and there may be more to come if she jumps and settles better. 88

        Breguet Boy 22/01/2021 Musselburgh 2m Handicap Hurdle (115)-1
        Three times a winner on the flat, Breguet Boy finished his initial spell on the level with a mark of 76. His hurdling debut came at this course and distance on good ground in early November where he put in a decent round of jumping to win by three quarters of a length. He was less fluent on his return to the venue in December and while he finished runner-up, it was by some twenty-six lengths behind the winner. His jumps rating of 114 was not unduly harsh ahead of his handicap debut, and while he was a pound out of the weights, he still started the day at 11/2. He had drifted to twice that price by the off, but he jumped and settled well tucked in just behind the leaders. The only real error he made came at the fifth where he was very untidy, although his being baulked on the approach probably contributed to his mistake. While he was still in a prominent position turning for home, he had to be kept up to his work to keep tabs on the front pair who managed to draw away from him. He looked booked for third approaching the last when badly hampered by a faller. He was then passed on the run-in although had he not suffered interference, it is likely he would have finished runner-up. In any case, this effort likely marked a new career best and his being dropped to 113 is a fair move from the handicapper. Though largely exposed after eighteen starts, Breguet Boy is a consistent type who can continue to be competitive at this level. 115

        Jorgie 22/01/2021 Musselburgh 2m Handicap Hurdle (115)-2
        Rated just 48 when making his jumps debut, Jorgie landed an upset when taking a six runner maiden at Perth in September. He only attracted a bid of ?2,000 at Doncaster in October and was retained by his owners for whom he would finish a nose second in an eleven furlong Southwell handicap. A drifter prior to his return to hurdling over this course and distance in December, his jumping lacked confidence and fluency and he was ultimately beaten a near fifty lengths. After a spin on the flat, he came back to Musselburgh for his handicap debut where he was completely unfancied, drifting from 16/1 to 50/1. Racing off 115, he looked harshly treated without being two pounds out of the handicap. Nevertheless, he travelled sensibly in the rear and jumped cleanly apart from clipping the top of the fifth and being slightly untidy over two out. Though beating just two home while nearly seventeen lengths behind the winner, he most likely ran a career best given his ungenerous mark. Subsequently dropped to 111, he is still a couple of pounds short of his rating, but it is not an unfeasible target if he can maintain this progress. 109

        Pyramid Place 23/01/2021 Taunton 2m?f Handicap Hurdle (104)
        While Pyramid Place failed to score in four outings for John Gosden, his hurdling debut at Lingfield was not without promise and he did not have to improve on that performance to win at Bangor next time. He was unsurprisingly outclassed in the Finale Hurdle on his return from a two month break, but his mark of 104 was generous based on his previous outings. Positioned in the rear, habit of racing keenly was prevalent in the early stages here, but he travelled strongly on the second lap and took a narrow lead entering the straight. Though he was not entirely straightforward in lengthening up the straight, his efforts were not laboured either and his scope was probably superior to the three and three quarter length margin at the line. His jumping was not always tidy and his better leaps came when ridden into the jumps, but he was invariably quick in the air and this manner of hurdling is effective enough for this level. His new mark of 112 is at the absolute ceiling of what he has shown thus far, but he is still fairly unexposed and can continue to improve if settling and jumping better. 110

        State Crown 23/01/2021 Taunton 2m?f Handicap Hurdle (115)
        After showing fair form in three starts for Charlie Appleby, State Crown joined Evan Williams for ?24,000. Placed at Ludlow and Newcastle on his first two hurdles runs, he was feasibly handicapped on 116 for his debut in the discipline at Plumpton three weeks prior. However, the ground was softer than ideal and his jumping was not as fluent as usual as he finished just over nine lengths third. Though dropped a pound here, the ground still would have been a disadvantage and he was very weak in the market, drifting from 11/4 in the morning to 17/2 at the off. Leading through much of the way, he had a habit of slightly wandering on the approach to the flights, sometimes to the left but not to extreme levels. While he turned for home with a share of the lead, he weakened quickly thereafter and his jumping also deteriorated. He ran on the inside but this is unlikely to have been a major detriment as the winner of the previous race took a similar route. Although he was clearly unsuited by the ground, he has been dropped to 113 which, if not soured by these defeats, could leave him a fairly treated horse on a sounder surface. 105

        Comment


        • ASCOT 23rd January
          Preview review
          The strong prospect did not land the spoils in a straightforward manner, but he likely had more in hand than the winning margin suggests. Casa Loupi was underestimated and while his yard and progressive profile were noted, his fitness relative to his opponents was rather overlooked. Nevertheless, even conservative estimates of his performance suggested he ran a career best by an appreciable margin. The next three held similar positions in the prospect lists without getting particularly close. Though Stepney Causeway lacked fluency, his cause was not helped by his pulling hard, which may have been exacerbated by his freshness and the fact he largely raced over seven furlongs on the flat.

          Race review
          Though not a "named" contest, Ascot's sole non-handicap juvenile hurdle of the season often throws up good types and while the hurdling form brought to this year's renewal was mediocre, there were some potentially useful sorts among the newcomers. The most prominent was Tritonic who has been a feature of the Triumph ante-post lists since the summer, and is currently one of two for Alan King holding an entry for same. He was given plenty to do by Casa Loupi who had enough to find on form, but was representing a strong yard and jumped as well as any hurdling debutant this term. These two pulled a long way clear of a strung out field headed by the likelier types. The pace was very honest and the winning time was a reasonable one. when compared to standard times on the card, and those posted in previous renewals on similar ground. The prominence of Casa Loupi does cast some doubt on the form, but he was well backed throughout the day and his jumping was such that a decent step up on his flat form is not an unreasonable assessment. While this field might progress according to fitness and aptitude, the form looks solid as it stands.

          Tritonic failed to win in five outings during 2020, but his flat form is as strong as anything brought to the division by a British trained horse. A runner-up off 95 on his seasonal return, he filled that position on another couple of occasions in a listed race at Hamilton and a Yarmouth handicap off 99. He also ran creditably in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer, and the Old Rowley Cup. His participation in the division was the subject of some speculation, and was contingent on his schooling well. This criteria was apparently met and he was a solid favourite to make a winning start to his new career for a yard which used this contest with some good horses through the years. Settling well in mid division, he was travelling well on the run to the home turn, but did not have the natural pace to move to the front and was still a few lengths in arrears entering the straight. The two length gap between himself and Casa Loupi was maintained over the final two flights, and would not erode until well within the final furlong with Tritonic taking the lead within the final few strides. His jumping was sound as while he rather reached for the last, the only discernible error he made came at the fifth where he got in rather close and was slightly untidy. While he would wanted to have beaten a 69 rated horse more convincingly if he is to hold realistic Triumph aspirations, this was his first run for 106 days against a race fit rival who jumped very well, and the pair did pull a long way clear of some capable sorts on the flat. It would be preferable for him to have more experience prior to the Triumph and either the Adonis or the Dovecote (won by Alan King's Trenchant and Grumeti as four-year-olds) have been earmarked for his next target. 133

          Casa Loupi was one of a pair of runners for a Gary Moore yard whose last two runners in this contest finshed first and third. A consistent type who found further improvement since mid-October, he won one and finished runner-up three times in his latest four outings, bringing a flat rating of 69 to the sphere. Though opening at roughly the same price as his stablemate, Casa Loupi found himself the subject of strong support and was sent off the 15/2 third favourite. Sent off into the lead, he was rather big over the first two but still cleared his hurdles quickly enough. From there, his hurdling became very quick and nimble to the extent that it was one of the most polished rounds of jumping seen in the division this term. He held an advantage of a couple of lengths entering the straight which was maintained until well inside the final furlong. His stride shortened more dramatically than that of Tritonic, but his final furlong time was still quicker than all but the graded race winners on the card. This performance far outstrips anything Casa Loupi achieved on the flat. While he had a fitness edge over his rivals, such was his aptitude that he looks a natural over hurdles and if this exhibition is to believed then any ordinary race should be well within his capacity. 132

          Vulcan was a useful sort on the flat for Harry Dunlop, landing a brace in October including a seven length success off 77 in a Haydock handicap on his penultimate outing. Fetching 170,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, he was the most expensive publicly sold juvenile in the UK this season. Representing a strong yard in the discipline and with the services of Richard Johnson secured for his hurdling debut, Vulcan attracted plenty of market support through the day and on the course. Held up in midfield and fairly keen early on, he jumped reasonably well for a debutant making only minor errors at the first, third and fifth. Making steady headway after passing Swinley Bottom, he entered the straight in second place a couple of lengths behind the leader. However, he was unable to bridge the gap and an untidy jump at the penultimate flight cost him momentum which saw the race get away from him. He would finish eighteen lengths behind the front pair, but still had fifteen lengths in hand over the remainder. While he was the best part of a stone below his flat best, this was a satisfactory introduction to the sphere and should be able to leave this effort behind with fitness and experience. 114

          Punctuation was not quite as expensive as Vulcan, but the 110,000 guineas paid for him at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale was still a considerable outlay. A winner of the second of his eight outings for Andrew Balding, Punctuation ran to a fairly useful standard on the flat including a midfield finish in the Melrose Handicap off 87 on his penultimate start. He had missed a couple of engagements due to recent weather, but the stable was not in strong form going into this contest and he drifted from 11/2 in the morning to 12/1 at the off. Running keenly and pulling somewhat to his left, he raced prominently and briefly disputed the lead heading towards Swinley Bottom. He would lose his position on the run to the straight and continued to lose ground in the straight, finishing thirty-four lengths behind the winner. Though he wandered into the first couple of flights, he got over them OK but his jumping was lacking from there as he was close into the next three, reached and pecked at the sixth and was steady and untidy over the penultimate flight. Based on his flat ability, this was a disappointing first outing, and while he may do better when the yard is in better health, he still needs to improve on his hurdling. 99

          Stepney Causeway won at Chelmsford on his second start as a two-year-old, and would build on that performance in two outings at three with his latest effort seeing him narrowly defy a mark of 81 at Leicester in mid-July. Joining the same yard and running in the same colours as Allmankind, Stepney Causeway opening in the betting at 10/3 for his hurdling debut. However, he was a huge drifter during the day and was sent off at 14/1. Due to a 190 day absence and possibly his racing predominantly over seven furlongs on the flat, he pulled hard in the early stages and was difficult to settle in the rear. His hurdling suffered as a result as he got in close to several flights as well as showing a tendency to jump to his left. Though making moderate headway during the final mile of the contest, he never remotely looked like getting involved and was ultimately well beaten. The excuses for the poor run are apparent, and he can probably leave this behind with the freshness ran out and going left handed. Nevertheless, he has something to prove in the short term. 99

          Sarceaux won on the flat for Mikel Delzangles at a moderate level, and was one of two coming into the contest with hurdles form. She had finished twenty-seven lengths fifth at Kempton last month and was not well fancied to improve on that showing here. Held up in touch, she raced keenly but jumped well in the main before steadying and hopping over the fifth when beginning to lose ground. Modest ground was made during the final two furlongs and she might be the type to get a trip on better ground. However, she looks little better than moderate at this juncture. 87

          Hooroo won once and placed three times from fourteen runs on the flat for Karl Burke, and had shown fair form for the discipline. However, following a 10,000 guineas sale at Tattersalls, he was thrown into the deep end for his hurdles debut and despite representing an in-form trainer, was not well fancied to make an impact. Racing in the rear throughout, he was steady and slow over several flights without hurdling particularly cleanly and was unable to make any headway. He might be better assessed in calmer waters but at the moment, he does not appeal as an intriguing sort. 82

          Salamanca School won at Nottingham as a two-year old for Mark Johnston and began 2020 with a flat rating of 79. Furthermore, he joined a stable with a good record in the sphere and is bred to be competitive in the division being a brother to the useful Sofia's Rock. However, his flat form had been regressive and a wind operation followed his thirteen length defeat in a seller when last seen in late August. Unfancied ahead of his hurdling debut, he was slightly untidy over the first two flights, but would jump better from there and would maintain his position behind the leaders until the approach to the home turn. However, he weakened very quickly through the final half-mile and would finish tailed off. There were glimmers of promise here, and if it is just a case that fitness caught him flat footed then he should be able to progress. 82

          Blue Slate was the only hurdles winner in the field, but that came in a weak contest at Leicester and his efforts either side have been no better than plating standard. Racing in midfield, he jumped the first two fine, but made mistakes at the next three before getting detached and pulling up in the home straight. Though he has been highly tried on his last couple of outings, he subsequently ran poorly on his return to the flat and would not offer encouragement before he shows a return to form. 0

          Tenfold is rated five pound superior to stablemate Casa Loupi on the flat, but had drifted from 20/1 to 40/1 through the day. His recent flat form had been regressive for Martyn Meade and his tendency to pull was apparent here. Held up in the rear, he made slight errors in the early stages and was unable to make any impression on the contest before pulling up entering the straight. He might do better on a sounder surface but will need to settle better before becoming competitive. 0

          Comment


          • Despite being frozen earlier this week, Catterick's third juvenile hurdle of the season looks likely to go ahead, albeit in very testing ground. While hosted eight times since 2010, it is generally little better than the average race held at the venue, and its roll call is fairly tepid with 2013 winner Hidden Justice finishing tenth in that season's Triumph, and the first two in 2016 running down the field in the Fred Winter. Nevertheless, while tomorrow's renewal has few pretentions to being a serious Triumph trial, it does feature an entry for the race and with a few of the participants having shown respectable placed form, it looks a nice little race for its level. A sharp circuit which seldom gets too testing, Catterick's average winning DIs of 1.20 median, 1.26 mean suggest that the North Yorkshire venue is not too demanding. The clear round rate of 95.87% is lower than standard, but while newcomers generally find the track more tricky to jump, their overall strike rate suggests that they would not be at a discernible disadvantage. Nevertheless, with the going expected to be more testing than usual for the circuit, there will likely be an additional emphasis on stamina here.

            Triumph Odds
            Homme Public 50/1

            El Jefe bg Brian Ellison f7-0-2 (53) 57 j1-0-0 (-) 15 9
            Born To Sea (Montjeu){22-a}(0.63) 2/1 Mountain 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Sandown 2007
            Brian Ellison has the most juvenile hurdle winners of the trainers represented in this field, and has five wins from twenty-two juveniles at this venue since 2009. His runner here, El Jefe, was moderate on the flat, but his best effort in that sphere was also his latest one when second in a Redcar handicap off 51 after a wind operation. He was very well backed to make a winning hurdles debut at Wetherby in late December, starting the day at 33/1, opening in the ring at 9/1, and setting off at 16/5. However, while he jumped well enough save for going left at the second and steadying at the fourth, he took a keen hold up from the start to the home straight where he faded to finish over a hundred lengths behind the winner. It is possible that the run was too bad to be deemed reliable and El Jefe is at least bred to do better as a hurdler. Nevertheless, even his strongest flat form is the weakest available in this company.

            Feldspar bg Keith Dalgleish f7-1-0 (59) 64 j1-0-1 (-) 110 117
            Champs Elysees (Sadler's Wells){9-e}(1.08) 2/2 Nearby 1st Elite Hurdle (L,145), Wincanton 2010
            Leaving Amanda Perrett for 6,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, Feldspar quickly recouped a good portion of his price tag by winning on his second outing for new connections in a fourteen furlong Wolverhampton handicap at the end of November. Though he went into his hurdling debut at Musselburgh on new year's day unfancied and with the lowest rating in the field, his being by Champs Elysees, and a close relative of useful hurdler Nearby, the switch to hurdles produced a creditable performance. Tracking the leaders in midfield, Feldspar made steady progress on the run-in and got to within a length of the runner-up on passing the post. Besides missing the penultimate flight and landing steeply at the last, he hurdled well for a debutant and demonstrated decent athleticism during the journey. Time will tell if this performance was a true reflection of his ability, but there is little obvious reason to doubt the showing at face value and he could improve further with this more demanding test. Keith Dalgleish has not been among the winners recently, but his charges have not been massively underperforming although on jockey bookings, Feldspar appears to be the yard's second string.

            Homme Public bg Oliver Greenall j2-0-2 (-) 118
            Cokoriko (Voix Du Nord){u}(0.33) 1/0 Uddy 4th Prix La Barka (G2), Auteuil 2014

            Established in 2012, the Prix Isopani is an eighteen furlong contest for AQPS juveniles making their hurdling debuts. Despite its position on the calendar, it has been the source of several including juvenile imports including Consul de Thaix, Box Office, and most notably, Bristol de Mai who won the race in 2014. Calett Mad and Alcala also made their debuts in the race before performing creditably in the UK while Figuero, eighth in 2018, is currently one of France's leading steeplechasers. This season's renewal was won emphatically by Historien, but the runner-up, Homme Public, is set to participate at Catterick tomorrow. Sent off at odds of 7.9, he was slightly big over the first few flights but jumped more neatly as the race progressed and was not discernibly affected by getting hampered over a couple of the jumps. Held up in midfield, he made progress during the back and while the winner had effectively ran away with the race, Homme Public battled on well to take second on the run-in. Paul Nicholls' Finale Hurdle third Houx Gris was four lengths behind while the fourth placed Hetre Rouge since won at Pau and is currently rated 127. Homme Public and Houx Gris reopposed in October with the latter turning the tables, but not without a hard fought battle with the pair pulling three and a half lengths clear of the third with a further five lengths back to Invite Special who subsequently finished third in a listed race before winning two chases at Pau. His jumping was not without some errors as he got rather close to two out before reaching for the last, but there were more neat jumps than otherwise. Francois Nicolle has already supplied three winners to the division this term in Hacker des Places, Monmiral and Quilixios, while his sole juvenile to join Oliver Greenall thus far was Gris de Pron who won two of three starts in 2016/17. However, while the yard has a decent record in the division, its first time out strike rate is just 3.57% with most of its charges improving for the experience. Sire Cokoriko was a very talented juvenile hurdler in France and has already produced some talented types in the division such as Polirico and Coko Beach. Out of a pattern class mare, Homme Public's damline is also compelling as he is a half-brother to a useful chaser and from the family of champions including Ucello II (3/1), Bipolaire (3/3) and 1987 King George winner Nupsala (4/1). Sure to enjoy the ground, Homme Public could bring a touch of class to proceedings. While the yard's first time out record is a concern, this Triumph entry may not need to be at his absolute best to take this contest.

            Lanval bg Sam England f3-0-1 (58) 61
            Camelot (Woodman){8-c}(1.00) 2/2 Den Maschine 1st Handicap Hurdle (115), Sandown 2012
            Making his debut in September, Lanval ran three times on the flat for David Menuisier with the best performance coming last time when beaten eighteen lengths in a Chelmsford novice stakes. Since then, he joined Sam England for 1,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale - a yard without a winner from seven starts in the division. Camelot is a useful stallion in the sphere and his 55 rated Hen managed to win a very modest handicap at Uttoxeter last season. However, there no other cause for enthusiasm in the profile.

            Machios brg Keith Dalgleish f8-1-2 (72) 76 j1-0-1 (-) 93 93
            Maxios (Shamardal){3-j}(1.15) 2/1 Hallings Comet 1st Maiden Hurdle, Worcester 2013
            Prior to fetching 25,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, Machios had an eight race career for Andrew Balding which included a win and two placings with his best form came on softer ground. He had a tendency to pull hard which was also the case in the early stages of his hurdles debut at Musselburgh in early December where he was quietly fancied before the off. He was untidy at a few flights and not the quickest getting away, but his jumping had more reasonable moments than otherwise. Making headway into third five furlongs from home, he could not match the front two for speed, but he was able to stay on and increase his gap over the remainder. He was not disgraced on his introduction to the sphere and as well as being likely to come on for the experience, should also enjoy the ground conditions. Furthermore, he could not be readily dismissed with Brian Hughes in the saddle, although his tendency to pull might be an issue following a two month absence.

            North Point bg Oliver Greenall f6-0-2 (70) 72 j2-0-0 (-) 88 86
            Norse Dancer (Montjeu){19}(0.83) 2/2 Star Maker 1st Handicap Hurdle (B,123), Killarney 2019
            Earning a rating of 70, North Point twice reached the frame for David Elsworth and his hurdling debut at Sedgefield was not without promise despite being well beaten in the end. He had not been seen for 114 days and was very easy to back in the market prior to his return at Ludlow a fortnight ago. Settled in the rear, he was slightly impeded at the first before somewhat hopping over the next two. His jumping was largely fluent from there, but he found himself completely detached and was virtually pulled up in the straight. He might have been in need of the run, but it was still a very flat effort and did nothing to provoke confidence here.

            Salamanca School bg Warren Greatrex f7-1-3 (65) 76 j1-0-0 (-) 76 82
            Rock Of Gibraltar (Pennekamp){9-e}(1.91) 1/1 Sofia's Rock 3rd Listed Hurdle, Kempton 2019
            A winner at Nottingham as a two-year old for Mark Johnston, Salamanca School began 2020 with a flat rating of 79. Furthermore, he joined a stable with a good record in the sphere and is bred to be competitive in the division being a brother to the useful Sofia's Rock. However, his flat form had been regressive and a wind operation followed his thirteen length defeat in a seller when last seen in late August. Unfancied ahead of his hurdling debut at Ascot two weeks ago, he was slightly untidy over the first two flights, but would jump better from there and maintain his position behind the leaders until the approach to the home turn. However, he weakened very quickly through the final half-mile and would finish tailed off. There were glimmers of promise, and if it is just a case that fitness caught him flat footed then he should be able to progress. Warren Greatrex sent the fairly useful Earl Of Harrow to finish second in last year's renewal of this contest, but the yard has been in weak form recently which does not bode well given that Salamanca School still has questions to answer.

            Tinnahalla bg Olly Murphy f7-0-4 (75) 79 j2-0-1 (110) 113 117
            Starspangledbanner (Sadler's Wells){1-s}(0.64) 2/1 Celestial Halo 1st Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2008
            Tinnahalla achieved fair form as a maiden for Jamie Osborne, and his being related to Thomas Hobson, Drifter and Celestial Halo made him an interesting recruit to the division. On his hurdling debut at Newbury, his inability to settle followed him from the flat and his jumping suffered as a result. He was once again very keen at Kempton four weeks ago and was still taking a hold deep into the race. Nevertheless, his jumping had improved as apart from getting close to the first, stumbling at two out, and steadying into the last, his round was cleaner for the experience. Leading from the outset, he afforded himself a breather during the middle stages of the contest before progressively increasing the tempo towards the business end of the contest. Though he was caught at the penultimate flight and left in the wake of the winner from there, he still had enough to repel the challenge of the third placed newcomer. Along with improved jumping, he also progressed from a form perspective to post a new career best effort. If he is able to settle better then a race of this nature would be well within his scope. The Olly Murphy yard has been in decent form recently, and though he has yet to send a juvenile to Catterick, his overall record at the venue is respectable. However, while Tinnahalla goes on soft and the sharp circuit can mitigate against his keen nature, there are doubts on form and breeding as to whether he will appreciate the ground being quite so testing tomorrow.

            Warranty bg Harry Whittington f6-1-1 (68) 67 j3-0-1 (-) 99 107
            Authorized (Giant's Causeway{16-c}(0.84) 1/1 Fally Jem 1st 3yo Conditions Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2018
            Another former inmate of Mark Johnston's, Warranty won a maiden handicap at Beverly on his final flat start which has worked out well for the grade. He was supported in the market ahead of his hurdles debut at Wetherby. However, a series of sloppy and hesitant jumps saw him shuffled back through the field and he was never able to reach a challenging position. His attempt at redemption was curtailed at Kempton as he was carried out after just two jumps, but he jumped the first hurdle well and the race conditions at Sandown early last month appeared to look suitable. The slow early gallop compromised his jumping, but it was never disastrous and it did improve as the tempo increased. Racing wide and tracking the leaders, he moved menacingly turning into the straight and traded close to evens before finding himself outpaced by the front pair. Nevertheless, he finished within eight lengths of the winner and eighteen lengths clear of the others and the performance marks a new career best in either discipline. Notwithstanding, the yard has been having a quiet time of things recently and while the ground should not be too much of a problem, Warranty may be better suited by a stiffer track.

            Strong prospects
            1. Homme Public
            Reasonable prospects
            2. Tinnahalla
            3. Feldspar
            Feasible prospects
            4. Warranty
            5. Machios
            6. Salamanca School
            Moderate prospects
            7. El Jefe
            8. North Point
            Negligible prospects
            9. Lanval

            Comment


            • Hi Kotkijet, I completely understand that you may not wish to disclose any of your secret sauce but I cant help but wondering what ingredients go into your ratings?

              Comment


              • Hi Might Bite

                I'm happy to show my process as it is an area where I myself am still learning... I am currently doing the review for Doncaster's fillies' race so I can show you in real time how I am coming about the ratings.

                In the broadest sense, I make it up as I go along. Obviously, it helps when the entire field already has ratings but during the earlier races where hurdles experience is threadbare, I generally go off the principles of;

                the difference between flat and hurdles ratings is 35 for juveniles (40 for older horses)
                juveniles typically need a few runs to reach that mark and generally improve in the region of half a stone from their debut outings

                Some show a natural aptitude and might even exceed their flat ratings first time (particularly unexposed or improving sorts), others either jump poorly, fail to stay/handle the ground, or post tepid efforts in the new environment

                When there is a mixture of debutants and experienced sorts, the performance ratings can be measured against one another.

                In any individual race, collateral comparisons are the first port of inquiry, but I will also look at how well the field jumps in general as well as times of the other races to gauge both pace and quality. The latter factor is not an accurate measure of quality but can usually give an idea of pace if nothing else. From here, I tend to stick with pound per length unless pace and/or ground suggest the need for adjustments.



                On the left is the sheet with date, course, position, performance rating, distance beat (weight taken into account but excludes jockey allowances), best performance rating to date, flat OR/source, flat peak, latter figures +35

                On the right are the winning times of the races on the card, time of the leader through the first mile, time of the winner during the final furlong. I also look at the weights and (estimated if no OR) ratings of the other winners. Where there is no race ran over the same distance, I might look at standard time divided by furlongs run.

                Her Indoors already surpassed her flat form at Kempton and while she did not post a polished round, it was still probably her strongest to date. Three pounds improvement on her Kempton run might be slightly stingy but anything more is difficult to justify given the winning time. Volkovka is already seven pounds ahead of her previous best despite this being her fifth start, and this can only be rationalised that she is becoming much more settled in the UK as she was mediocre on her first two outings. Talking About You looked much better when beating Her Indoors at Aintree so rather than assume that Her Indoors has improved much further than her Kempton outing, I would be more inclined to imagine that Talking About You ran a little flat given this is her tenth run of the season, and fifth since her wind op. Progressive travelled well into the straight but was keen for a while and sketchy in her jumping before finding little off the bridle. I am happy that she has improved since her debut, but not as much as she could have done and she certainly did not travel or jump well enough for me to be satisfied that she is matching her flat ability at this stage. Gilbertina was outclassed but probably matched rather than improved on her previous run behind Progressive.

                Being an embryonic art, this is about as well as I can explain something I don't fully understand myself If there is something where I am decidedly unclear then please don't hesitate to ask as it will help me as much as anybody.

                Furthermore, any suggestions and critiques would be most welcome.

                Comment


                • Thanks K, a hugely insightful response. Sounds like you’re doing a bit more than just ‘making it up as you go along’ .

                  How have you found the ratings from your system standing up to the test and when considering a horses chances how much ‘weight’ will you place on the rating?

                  Comment


                  • Cheers MB

                    In answering your first question, I will post a couple of tables which show, no, expose just how far I still need to go...

                    Here is the record for all "strong prospects" this season. Selections, winners, Morning Line (opening show taken from irishracing.com), Starting Price, hypothetical "best odds guaranteed" using ML and SP, Betfair SP, Betfair place.



                    And these are all the top rated.



                    Backing all SP favourites blind shows a loss of ?8.70 so while it could be worse, I am still light years away from going pro with this thing

                    As for the weight I give the ratings, I would have been better off going with them blind this year! They are usually a starting guide and if I deviate from same, I ask myself if there's a good reason to do so. Last week at Warwick and Catterick, I went against the top rated because they were both fresh sorts who could struggle to see out their races. Although I also mentioned in those previews that both courses could be sharp enough to mitigate against same and it turned out, they were. Conversely, while I did not preview yesterday's race at Musselburgh, the top two, Fiveandtwenty and Historic Heart were split by only a pound by my reckoning and it is possible I could have thought the latter's fitness edge and course and distance record could tip the balance.

                    All part of a very imprecise process...

                    Comment


                    • Just as a horse might take a while to settle into its new surroundings, so too does a Kotkijet. Though the cold snap should have been used to catch up on the reviews, it was mostly spent kicking up bedding and using scent to establish my territory. However, with racing returning to a full schedule, the backlog had to be trimmed lest it become indestructible. This batch of reviews brings us to the Fifth of February, and leaves a backlog of just twenty-seven. If there is anything missed then please let me know.

                      Balkardy 25/01/2021 Plumpton 2m Maiden Hurdle
                      Though by Balko and closely related to top French juvenile Roll On Has, Balkardy was not well supported ahead of his hurdling debut at Warwick. Nevertheless, he overcame some early trepidation and ran a creditable race to finish third among capable sorts. He was available to back at 16/1 during the morning, but a spate of withdrawals saw him sent off as the even money favourite by default. Racing in third position of the five runners, he was steady and close at the first, but jumped the next two flights decently enough. However, after being hampered by the wretched Glass Of Bubbles, his jumping became more nervy as he steadied into his remaining flights and took off with caution. Insofar as the race itself was concerned, he was always close enough, but found himself outpaced on the turn for home and was not given a hard time thereon. His allotted mark of 110 is based considerably more on potential than achievement, but the unexposed Balkardy can progress if this race has not badly affected his confidence. 99

                      Glass Of Bubbles 25/01/2021 Plumpton 2m Maiden Hurdle
                      Gave the second and third flights plenty of air. Looked to do the same at the fourth but took off too early and did not get a great deal of purchase with her hind legs. She fell on to the hurdle with her forelegs still on the take-off side, causing her to trip over and land directly on her head. Her neck was likely broken instantly. Her jumping had been untidy first time out, but was cleaner on her second outing and though cautious, did not appear to be putting herself at undue risk during this contest. The flight was omitted in the next race due to low sun. The meeting was close to being abandoned due to the state of the ground and the surface, in conjunction with the filly probably jumping a shadow, contributed to her fall. The death of Glass Of Bubbles was preventable.

                      Sweet Will 28/1/2021 Gowran Park 2m Handicap Hurdle (94)
                      Sweet Will was having his sixth start over hurdles, and his second in handicap company. He was beaten thirty-six lengths at Fairyhouse a fortnight earlier over half a mile further, and his mark being eased to 94 still left his with plenty to find on what he has shown over hurdles. His jumping is generally reasonable and though he is not particularly nimble, he got through this round without causing alarm with his biggest blemish being that he steadied into the first. He travelled comfortably enough in the rear, but while he made some minor headway along the back, he was labouring some way out and would ultimately finish fifty-seven lengths behind the winner. He has been dropped a further two pounds, but unless better ground brings about considerable improvement, it is a mark on which he may continue to struggle. 50

                      Ahaziah 28/1/2021 Gowran Park 2m Handicap Hurdle (99)
                      Ahaziah is rated just 37 on the flat, but though he had yet to finish within nineteen lengths of a winner in three outings, his form has been stronger in this sphere. He improved between his first and second outings, and did not need to do so again to outrun his 125/1 odds when seventh behind French Aseel at Leopardstown over Christmas. His rating of 99 was a fair one on balance, and he was quietly fancied to take advantage having been backed from 16/1 to 11/1 before the off. Racing keenly in a prominent position, he clipped the second but otherwise jumped cleanly. However, he began to fade on the climb at the five furlong point and stopped alarmingly quickly shortly afterwards. His stamina is not entirely assured for a thorough test in this discipline, but this performance was so bad that there was likely something amiss. He has been dropped to 97 as a result which is a workable mark if he can regain his form. 0

                      DONCASTER 29th January
                      Preview review
                      Strong prospect Megan did not travel as well as she had done previously and was quickly pulled up in the straight as though something were amiss. Nevertheless, Megan aside, the prospects list was still rather skewiff. Progressive made minor progress on her debut outing, but not to the extent anticipated and ran keenly without being able to see out the race. Talking About You slightly underperformed but still ran a reasonable race. Her Indoors was underestimated but the trainer did state that she had schooled better and that Doncaster would suit her better than Kempton. The improvement was not especially dramatic and while the words of connections can sometimes be heeded, given their sparsity and inconsistencies, they would not be something worth utilising as a matter of course.

                      Race review
                      The second of the season's two listed open contest for fillies and the third renewal of this particular event. Bringing together the first three of Aintree's edition, it looked the strongest running thus far although Megan ran no kind of race and Progressive was unable to find sufficient improvement. The winning time was quicker than the fair looking novice hurdle on the card, although they went no gallop and the novice handicap won by a 94 rated animal was run in a faster time. The standard of hurdling was not abysmal, but none of the field posted particularly fluent rounds. The form looks broadly reliable for what it is, but could not be considered particularly strong. Especially not for pattern class.

                      Her Indoors had been progressive during a light flat career, and vindicated the connections' expectations with a respectable debut second at Aintree in December. She did not need to improve on that performance when left in the same spot by a faller at Kempton over Christmas. Alan King reported that she schooled well since her last run and intimated that Doncaster would suit her better than Kempton. While she had a five pound pull with Talking About You for a seven length defeat at Aintree, she was still fairly uneasy in the market drifting from 9/2 in the morning to 11/2 at the off. Her Indoors had not jumped particularly well on either of her previous outings, nonetheless, Adrian Heskin was more proactive on the approaches on this occasion. While she was still far from polished, missing the fourth and fifth while very untidy at three out, she put in more good jumps than bad and though going slightly left over the last, she was still quick and the momentum was enough to carry her to the line. Held up but always in contention, she hit the front after being ridden at the distance. She did not see off the challenge of Talking About You until the final half furlong but her rival faded to leave her with a good five lengths in hand. While this was largely a listed win in name only, it still marks a new career best and this progressive filly can find more success this season. More probably, as suggested by her rider, on another galloping track going left handed. 120

                      Talking About You has been the revelation of the season, going from decidedly suspect squiggle bearer out of claiming races to a four time winner over hurdles, twice in listed company. These victories meant that she had to carry a five pound penalty here, but she was still favourably weighted on ratings and was sent off a steady 5/2 second favourite. Her jumping has rarely been clean at the best of times and she made several minor errors once again as she was steady over the first and last while clipping three hurdles and getting close to another two. Though she disputed the lead throughout, she never gained a clear advantage and while she saw off Gilbertina by the third last, she was unable to repel the challenge of Her Indoors and had given best on the run in. Talking About You was far from disgraced but while she was approximately level best at the weights, the performance did fall a little short of her peak efforts and she might again benefit from freshening up. 120

                      Volkovka was tried in an Italian listed race on the flat, and while her spell with Simone Brogi ended in claiming company, she still achieved form which is above average for the sphere. While she was mediocre in her first couple of runs over hurdles, she was able to win at the third time of asking at Market Rasen and was able to build on that performance with a narrow second at Taunton last time. She had yet to match her flat form and while she was progressing in the sphere, the fact she still had something to find with her rivals was reflected in her starting price of 14/1. Held up in the rear, she still had all but a pulled-up rival ahead of her turning for home. Headway was made throughout the straight, but it was not sufficient to make a serious challenge and she finished a never nearer eight lengths third at the line. Her jumping was not as tidy as it had been at Taunton as she was steady, close and untidy at several of these. Nevertheless, by virtue of her relative finishing position, it still represents a career best over hurdles. Volkovka's being raised to 119 is harsh based on what she has achieved to this point, but she is a progressive sort who may benefit from stepping up in trip. 112

                      Progressive landed a Newcastle fillies' novice stakes on the second of her four starts on the flat for Roger Varian, building on her success with respectable efforts in middle distance handicaps. Her hurdles/stable bow came over this course and distance a month prior, and while her task was simplified by the omission of several hurdles and the underperformance of her market rival, her two-and-a-quarter length defeat of Gilbertina was of sufficient promise to allow her to start the relatively uneasy 9/4 favourite here. Racing keenly just behind the leaders, her early jumping was marked by greenness as she hopped over the first, wandered on the approach to the second before missing the flight, and getting in close to the third. Given more encouragement by the jockey, she jumped the next few better and appeared to be travelling strongly approaching the penultimate hurdle. However, she was steady going into the flight and found little off the bridle whereafter she was slow going over the last and lost third place on the run-in. The additional hurdles and stronger pace alongside her inability to settle properly likely contributed to her being unable to see out the race. Though this was an improvement on her debut outing, it was not to the extent anticipated and her rating of 118 is not yet justified. Nevertheless, Progressive's hurdling career is still in its embryonic stages and there is no reason why she can not build on this performance as she matures. 110

                      Gilbertina achieved nothing in two flat outings, but belied odds of 200/1 to finish just over eighteen lengths third to Megan at Leicester on her hurdling debut. She showed that this was not a fluke performance when second to Progressive over this course and distance last time out. Nevertheless, she still had plenty to find on the principals and was easy to back in the market. She had been error prone on her previous outings another untidy round here as she got in tight to the early obstacles while steadying and getting close to the three in the straight. Disputing the lead for much of the contest, she lost her position jumping three out and would only fade from there before being the last of five to finish. This broadly matches her previous course and distance outing, but still leaves her short of her 112 rating. 105

                      Breadcrumbs has finished ahead of rivals on her two bumper outings as well as her hurdling debut behind Progressive the previous month. However, she had been well beaten on each occasion and her starting price of 250/1 was a fair reflection of her chances here. Initially tracking the leaders, she was tight and untidy at most flights and found herself getting detached before the turn for home before pulling up. 0

                      Megan's flat form in Germany is not readily quantifiable, but she had been competing in pattern company and she looked a very useful prospect when scoring on her hurdles debut at Leicester in November. On the strength of that performance, she was sent off favourite at Aintree next time and while she could only finish third, there was a case for her turning the tables on Talking About You and Her Indoors. This was not immediately apparent in the betting, but she did half in price through the day and started at 11/4. Held up in midfield, she put in the cleanest round of jumping, but was never travelling as well as she had done in the past. Though she was still well in touch turning for home, there had been some minor distress signals and she was pulled up very quickly after jumping the third last. This was clearly not her showing and it has transpired that she had burst a blood vessel. 0

                      Asharann 29/1/2021 Doncaster 2m?f Novices' Handicap Hurdle (102)
                      Asharann showed fair form on his first three flat starts, but was poor on his latter outings and continued that regression on his first two runs over hurdles. His fourth at Market Rasen marked something of a resurgence and while he was not kindly treated on his handicap debut debut over this course and distance a month prior, he was not disgraced in finishing fifth. His drop to 102 was much closer to his hurdles best and with experience in the conditions, his starting price of 15/2 looked fair. Half of the flights were omitted which may have been to his detriment as he is usually a reasonable jumper and apart from getting close to the second, jumped well enough once again. However, an inability to settle has been a feature of his outings to date and despite the trialling of a hood, it was repeated here. Initially held up in the rear, he made some headway to move into a midfield position, but would fade again once the race began to unfold. Asharann has been dropped again to 100, a mark off which he could feasibly be competitive on the proviso that he settles better. 79

                      Riviere d'Etel 29/1/2021 Navan 2m1?f Rated Novice Hurdle
                      Riviere d'Etel had shaped with promise when second on her hurdling debut at Auteuil in September, and was very impressive when winning on her Irish introduction on New Year's Eve. Despite taking on older horses, including one who had contested a Grade One last time, and being worst at the weights due to her mark of 133, she had been backed from evens to 8/13 during the day. The reverse happened in the ring and she started an uneasy 11/10 favourite. There had been headstrong tendencies on her first two outings and with none of her opponents electing to make the running, Riviere d'Etel ran keenly when setting her own pace. Though not to an alarming extent, this did impact her jumping as she skewed over the third and got in close to the fifth while showing a general tendency to go slightly right over her hurdles. While headed towards the end of the back straight, she was still travelling easily enough in contention at the first two in the straight where she jumped neatly. However, she began to get tapped for toe on the run to the last where she jumped big and was hampered by a more imposing rival in the aftermath which made her less inclined to fight for second place. Nevertheless, this was not a massive disappointment as she was beaten by inexperience as much as anything and this helped substantiate her Punchestown success. Though Riviere d'Etel is bred to flourish as a juvenile, and there is no reason why she can not supplement her profile this season, she is shaping as though experience and potentially more of a trip will be to her benefit. 133

                      Laralei 29/1/2021 Navan 2m1?f Rated Novice Hurdle
                      Finishing third in claiming company on her final flat outing, Laralei shown no aptitude or promise on her hurdles debut at Fairyhouse last month and the 300/1 starting price was not a generous one. Held up in the rear, she made errors and was detached before pulling up prior to the straight. She apparently made a noise. 0

                      En Couleur 30/1/2021 Doncaster 2m3?f Handicap Hurdle (108)
                      En Couleur showed some promise on his racecourse debut when third in a Southwell maiden, and after achieving little on his next two outings, outran odds of 125/1 to finish just over eleven lengths fifth to First Impression at Wetherby in November. He broadly matched that performance when third at Catterick in December and his allotted mark of 108 was a fair reflection of same. While not crying out for a trip, the additional half mile was not patently beyond his scope and he started the race fifth in the market at 9/1. Slightly keen initially while held up in mid-division, he got in slightly tight to the first three hurdles and went slightly to his left on the three away from the stands. Nevertheless, apart from being untidy and pecking at four out, there was nothing especially alarming about his jumping. After making steady headway, he entered the straight travelling well although he soon began to wander in a green rather than tired fashion. However, he was never able to bridge the gap on the leaders and after reaching for the last, he would weaken into fifth on the run-in. While he likely found the final furlong a bridge too far at this stage, it was still a solid performance in what was likely a competitive affair and dropped to 107, he has the scope to be reasonably treated in a less taxing contest. 104

                      Comment


                      • NAAS 31st January
                        Preview review
                        The strong prospect, aided by the stiff nature of the contest, won the race, the four reasonable prospects filled the next four places, and the leading feasible prospect finished sixth. Willywampus did well to finish within twelve lengths of the winner but his jumping was very good and had been noted in the preview.

                        Race review
                        The meeting passed an inspection with the ground described as barely raceable. While this was a maiden containing only one Triumph entry, there were several potentially useful sorts in the line up. The race was taken by the Triumph entry and though the first six were covered by just over five lengths, they each had a right to finish as they did. Despite some bunching in the early stages, the overall level of jumping was to a decent standard and there were no obvious hard luck stories among the principals. The pace was steady but honest and while the winning time was the slowest over the distance on the card, it still creditable in relation to the handicap hurdle. While the contest has no pretentions to being of a high calibre, it has an above average shape to it and should produce winners.

                        Coltor was lightly raced on the flat, winning at the third time of asking in a soft ground Killarney maiden in October. By Free Eagle and closely related to Limini, there was every chance he could thrive in the discipline and he made a decent impression first time when a commendable, if one-paced second to French Aseel at the December Festival. Though a beaten favourite at Punchestown next time, he still substantiated his debut performance while shaping as though a thorough test of stamina was necessary. His jumping had largely been decent and apart from steadying and getting tight at the first, and reaching before slightly stumbling at the last, he posted another decent round and was particularly fluent over a few in the back. Always tracking the leaders, he jumped into the lead at the penultimate flight and while the slightly untidy jump at the last cost him momentum, he was always doing enough to fend off two challengers on the run in. He was trimmed just ten points to 40/1 for the Triumph which is a fair reflection of his standing in the division. Nevertheless, while he would not be one of the leading juveniles of the season, he is an above average type with a future in this game with give in the ground. 125

                        Showbusiness fetched €76,000 at the Arqana Summer sale ahead of joining the powerful Gordon Elliott yard. While he did not receive an entry for the Triumph, he is bred to do well in the discipline and this twice raced maiden achieved enough during the summer to suggest he can be competitive here. Though he drifted from 7/2 to twice the price during the morning exchanges, he was fairly steady in the ring and was sent off at 11/2. He was keen during the early stages on his first run following a 208 day break, but had clearly been schooled well as apart from getting low at the first, put up an error-free round of hurdling. Tucked in behind the front runners, he moved well into the straight and was within a length of the leader jumping the last. However, while his rider became more animated with a furlong to go, he was unable to bridge the gap quick enough and failed by a neck to make a winning debut. It can not be said for certain that a more proactive ride would have seen him succeed, but this was still a taking debut performance in any case and with his class and aptitude already apparent, a contest of this nature should be well within the scope of a fitter Showbusiness. 125

                        Zoffanien won twice on the flat in France for Yan Durepaire and was third at Limerick and Punchestown either side of a mildly disappointing sixth at the latter venue on Boxing Day where he had not jumped as well as in his other outings. His latest third at Punchestown had seen him finish over three lengths ahead of Coltor and was the strongest hurdling form coming into this contest. Another who settled just behind the leaders, he jumped the penultimate flight with a share of the lead but was unable to take the initiative and while he saw the race out well enough, he was relegated to third behind two better stayers. Notwithstanding, this was another career best and while he made a few minor errors during the course of the race, he is largely a proficient hurdler. Along with being fairly treated on 116, he can also continue to progress. 125

                        Persia achieved a strong level of form as a two-year-old, the highlight being a useful second in a Leopardstown Grade 3. While he did could only finish down the field in a pair of Autumn handicaps, his form was still of a good standard and his switch to Joseph O'Brien saw him enter the early Triumph markets. Despite being by Galileo, his pedigree is not an obvious one for the sphere and an entry was not made for that contest. Nevertheless, while he started the day at 8/1, he was backed into as low as 2/1 before drifting back out to 7/2 at the off. Tracking the leaders throughout, his jumping left something to be desired as he wandered into the first, went through the top of the third, got in close to the next and despite being ridden on the approach to three out, missed the flight and pecked on landing. He was always close enough if good enough, but while he was able to pass two rivals on the run-in, he never looked threatening. Notwithstanding, this was a fine effort in first time tongue tie on his first run for 129 days and having subsequently been gelded, there is reason to assume that he build on this performance. 122

                        Halifax came into the contest with a sole piece of flat form in the shape of a second in a modest provincial contest. However, by Saddler Maker and related to the likes of Parrain, Blazer and Osana, Halifax is much more traditionally bred for a jumps career than the bulk of his juvenile counterparts. Initially something of a forgotten horse in the market, he attracted nibbles during the day before plunging from 9/1 to 7/2 in the ring. He raced freely in France and was fairly keen for much of this contest while getting a lead. Without making any serious errors, his hurdling was marked by inexperience as he was cautious over the first two and slightly close to several others along the way. He began to lose his position to pacier types turning for home, but did not fade in the manner of a tired horse and plugged on at the one pace to finish within four lengths of the winner. For a horse with such obvious scope and little experience, this was a likeable debut and while his future looks brighter in the long term, he can be competitive at this level as a juvenile. 121

                        Toughari looked no better than moderate prior to his hurdling debut last Autumn, but after a tepid introduction to the sphere, was able to get off the mark in a low grade Fairyhouse handicap and has largely been progressive without winning. He was last seen running to a career high when runner-up in mid December maiden back at Fairyhouse. Toughari had not been the most confident hurdler on his four previous outings, but there was likely some improvement in his schooling during his fifty day sabbatical as while he was easy to back in the marked, he posted his best round to date here. Racing from the front, he slightly reached at the second but got over it quickly and was decent over his jumps along the back. Toughari entered the straight leading the field, but would be headed on the approach to two out where he made his first real error as he steadied and did not get particularly high. This was most likely due to his getting tired and although he did not fold completely, he was passed by the remaining leaders. Notwithstanding, Toughari's decent hurdling enabled him to reach a new level of form which has now seen him exceed his official mark of 112. While he may be vulnerable to better stayers in similar contests, Toughari would pose a real threat on a sharper circuit. 120

                        Willywampus began his three-year-old campaign with a rating of 80, but was twice well beaten in a pair of handicaps last June and three uninspiring efforts saw him start this race at 125/1. Nevertheless, there had been doses of good hurdling amidst the form figures of 8F7 and his round here was probably the best in this contest. Racing in midfield, he was rather lit up entering the back but after reaching at the third, was noticeably quick at the next three and turned for home in shouting distance of the leaders. His stamina would give out following his earlier exuberance, but he still had enough to finish best of the remainder, putting up his best performance since his two-year-old days. This was not the first time he failed to see out a race and stamina will continue to be a concern in the future. Nevertheless, he did not fade as dramatically as previously and if he can find a sharp enough contest then his mark of 106 could see him well treated. 113

                        Brides Hill is related to winning hurdlers, and did not see a racecourse until a fortnight prior at Punchestown where she started at 200/1. She jumped poorly in the rear but was able to make some headway without threatening. She once again started at 200/1 and was settled in the rear of midfield. Her hurdling was still unfurnished as she was big and untidy over several and went left over the penultimate flight. Nevertheless, she was never in danger of getting detached and was able to pass a couple of rivals in the straight to finish a thirteen and a half length eighth, six lengths ahead of the remainder. The jockey's report that she hung left up the straight was corroborated by video evidence. Brides Hill improved significantly on her racecourse debut and though she still has some way to go at this stage, there is time left in the season for her to be competitive in moderate company. 112

                        Iberia was kept to pattern company in all seven outings following a winning debut at the Curragh in June 2019 and his rating of 102 is the highest brought to the division. His switch to John Halley rather than Joseph O'Brien tempered enthusiasm ahead of his hurdling debut at Leopardstown in December where he drifted from 15/2 to 20/1. Nevertheless, he was jumping and travelling creditably enough before getting badly baulked on the last and was the closest thing to an unlucky loser in that contest. Steady in the market on this occasion, he raced fairly prominently, but was prone to making errors and began to lose his position prior to leaving the back. He was not tailed off in finishing just under twenty lengths behind the winner, and this marks a step up on the bare form of his debut effort. Nevertheless, it also paints a more reliable depiction of his credentials in this sphere and while he would not be a forlorn hope in ordinary company, there is a discernible gap between this and his flat ability. 106

                        Baltinglass Hill ended his first spell on the flat with a rating of 75, although nothing he did on the racecourse justified such a figure. He ran no sort of race on his hurdling debut at Gowran Park, and though he jumped better at Punchestown earlier in the month, he still finished tailed off. Held up in the rear, he had most of the field ahead of him turning into the straight, but was able to pass three rivals prior to the race's conclusion to post a new career best in either code. His allotted rating of 95 is potentially feasible if this outing is a true reflection of his ability, although his inability to consistently hurdle neatly will likely keep him vulnerable. 101

                        Saeer joined Gordon Elliot for 9,000 guineas after a four race flat career with Sir Michael Stoute saw him earn a mark of 63. His first three outings over hurdles have come within the space of a month with his first two outings coming in Punchestown maidens. The in-running comments of "unfancied, held up, minor headway, jumped reasonably before finishing fairly tired" could be replicated on each occasion. Saeer's jumps career has hitherto been one of absolute anonymity, and though he is not devoid of some talent, will likely continue in that vein until he is allotted a handicap mark. 99

                        Anno Maximo placed second off 60 on his penultimate start for Michael Bell and while his flat form is unremarkable, his pedigree suggests he could potentially fare better over hurdles. He did not create a favourable impression on his debut at Punchestown when making minor errors without leaving the rear, and he was slow over a few here while running a similar race. Anno Maximo finished closer on this occasion, albeit he was still beaten by nearly forty lengths and does not conjure any real enthusiasm at this juncture. 87

                        St James's Square cost $2,400,000 as a yearling, but finished towards the rear on his sole outing at Naas as a two-year-old for Aiden O'Brien before being withdrawn from an intended engagement at Gowran Park last June. Another to join John Halley, there is no indication on breeding that he might flourish in the sphere, but the booking of Rachael Blackmore retrained his starting price to 25/1 at the off. Held up in touch, his hurdling lacked fluency as he missed the first couple and was steady and/or untidy at the fourth, fifth and sixth. He was still alongside the runner-up three furlongs from home, but would fade tamely from there. This being his first outing for over sixteen months, he was entitled to finish the race quite tired and he hung in for long enough. It might be rash to assume he can be competitive next time out and his stamina for the discipline is not assured. Nonetheless, a better assessment of his capacity would come with more evidence. 86

                        Kashi failed to progress after his debut second at Kempton for Andrew Balding and was sold for 8,000 guineas. Not unfeasibly bred for his new vocation, Kashi overcame some early errors to jump reasonably at Punchestown without getting involved in the race. However, nothing in that performance suggested he could be competitive here. Starting at 250/1, he raced keenly and made made a succession of errors without leaving the rear. 83

                        Sheer Bravado showed little on his first three outings for Jim Bolger, but would develop into a fairly useful type and land a hat-trick in handicaps during the Autumn. Subsequently sold for 62,000 guineas, had the quality to fare well in the division along with a somewhat feasible pedigree. However, he was lukewarm in the market, drifting from 16/1 in the morning to 80/1 in the ring before being nibbled into 50/1 at the off. Racing keenly while tracking the leaders on the inside, Sheer Bravado was still in the leading group turning for home, but would fold very tamely from thereon. Apart from being slightly big over the second and rather close to three out, he jumped reasonably for a debutant and it is possible that he just blew up on his first start for thirteen weeks. Nevertheless, all of his winning on the flat was done over a mile and less and even if he learns to settle, stamina will remain an unresolved concern. 78

                        Shantou Lucky, making his racecourse debut, was the chosen mount of Jonathan Moore. He fetched less as a store horse than as a yearling and was easy to back in the market before jumping poorly and never leaving the rear. 60

                        Charlie Bassett reached the frame on seven occasions on the flat and jumped reasonably well on his two hurdles outings in December. However, his stamina is not assured for the discipline and after racing in midfield, would stop quickly prior to leaving the back straight. This performance was bad enough to assume that something may have been amiss, but he still has questions to answer. 0

                        Hisdaywillcome is a half-brother to two winning jumpers but was sent off at 400/1 for his racecourse debut. Very keen in the early stages, he was untidy at the first, steep at the second and was pulled up after the third as his saddle had slipped. 0

                        Bigz Belief 31/1/2021 Naas 1m7?f Handicap Hurdle (114)
                        Though without a win from fourteen starts under either code, Bigz Belief had been improving with each run over hurdles and was not harshly treated on his best form. He had not been seen in over ten weeks, but was the subject of some support in the market, backed in the ring from 8/1 to 13/2. His hurdling had been generally decent prior to his break, but he was somewhat rusty on his return as he steadied and hopped over the first couple while getting close and reaching at several others. Tracking the leaders for much of the race, he was getting pushed along while still in the back straight. To his credit, he did not lose his position although by the same token, he did not make any real headway either. He made a bad blunder at the penultimate flight after being bumped by a more imposing rival on the approach, but was able to stay on one paced to finish sixth. His mark remains unchanged and while he did not run to his best on this occasion, it was satisfactory reappearance nevertheless and he ought to be competitive at this kind of level if he can regain his fluency. 109

                        Comment


                        • WARWICK 3rd February
                          Preview review
                          The review of the preview for this race is a rather frustrating one. The winner had much the highest rating coming into the contest, but was not given the strong prospects on account of his potentially being fresh after his absence. Nevertheless, it was noted that this freshness might be mitigated by the sharp nature of Warwick which proved to be the case. Otherwise, the race appeared to very much be between the first three which is what transpired with the trio pulling a long way clear.

                          Race review
                          Historically a strong contest for the venue without being one which produces top class sorts, this year's renewal looks to have a similar shape. Three horses came into the contest with above-average, winning form, and this trio dominated proceedings. The quality of hurdling was below the standard usually expected from horses of the class, but the pace was solid enough and the winning time respectable in comparison with the class 3 handicap which closed the card. The front three pulled clear of the remainder to a satisfactory degree, and while the principles are at different stages of their developments, the form looks reliable at this juncture.

                          Cabot Cliffs was no better than a fair maiden on the flat for Charlie Hills, but he immediately showed himself better over hurdles with a debut win at Uttoxeter and a third in the Wensleydale Hurdle a fortnight later. He ran too freely for his own good next time at Cheltenham and was given an eleven week break prior to his return here. There were concerns that his absence might exacerbate his free going tendencies, but a circuit like Warwick would help mitigate some of that damage. As it transpired, while he was still fairly keen, Harry Skelton was able to restrain him to a satisfactory level as he made the running at a sensible tempo. The more pressing concern was his jumping as although he never looked in danger of making any serious errors, he did expend a fair amount of energy by hopping over his hurdles and on one occasion could be described as "flamboyant". There was also a tendency to wander on the approach to the flights, but neither of these foibles were massively to the detriment of his performance as he posted a new career best in beating a useful looking, unexposed pair. It is likely that he physically developed during his break and with scope for improvement in the psychological sense, he can continue to progress as a hurdler. Though it might be fanciful to consider an early chasing career for Cabot Cliffs, his trainer has sent Pretty Reckless, Pain Au Chocolat, Notnowsam and Allmankind to win chases as four-year-olds with the latter pair being flat recruits. 131

                          Sage Advice had a progressive profile on the flat, winning a Tipperary handicap off 73 on his penultimate for Joseph G Murphy before fetching 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale. Following a wind operation and a four month break, Sage Advice recouped some of that outlay with a taking introduction to hurdles at Kempton. Settling better than he had done on the flat and jumping well for a debutant, he ran out a very comfortable six length winner from a Tinnahalla who would frank the form with a win of his own. Holding a Triumph Hurdle entry, Sage Advice was the subject of solid support in the market and started the race as even money favourite. Once again racing fairly keenly, he settled in behind the leaders and jumped the first five hurdles better than anything else in the field. His first error of the race came at three out where he missed the flight and blundered badly, costing him momentum in the process. Though he recovered enough to get on an even keel with Cabot Cliffs at the penultimate flight, he was not altogether tidy and he conceded the impetus once again. Asked for a big one at the last, he cleared it decently enough, but while he plugged on gamely, he was unable to make inroads on the winner. While Sage Advice might have finished closer with a clear round, there is no guarantee that he will have mastered Cabot Cliffs and his Triumph entry looks ambitious in light of this performance. Nevertheless, it was still a respectable second outing in the sphere and with further progress likely, his mark of 127 looks very fair. 129

                          Goodbye Stranger joined a rare class of animal when winning a juvenile hurdle on his racecourse debut in December, and while the bare form gave him something to find here, it had been substantiated in the interim. Furthermore, Goodbye Stranger was decidedly immature at Newbury and of those in this particular line-up, his scope for improvement was the greatest. Ridden less conservatively than he had been last time, he was held up in touch for much of the contest. However, while he was able to eventually move into contention on the approach to the final flight, he had not travelled quite as strongly on this occasion. Furthermore, he was prone to making errors including getting close to the first and sixth, flattening the fourth, being untidy over the next and landing off-stride over the final two. Goodbye Stranger closed to within a couple of lengths of the winner and passed the post alongside Sage Advice, and while he was not as visually impressive, he did step up from a form perspective. Goodbye Stranger holds a Triumph entry, but while he is probably the most compelling long term prospect to emerge from this contest, he will likely need more time to fulfil his potential. 129

                          Caldwell, a full-brother to a winning novice, was placed on two of his three starts for Dermot Weld before joining Michael Scudamore for 28,000 guineas at Tattersalls. His hurdling debut came at Wetherby in late December and while he was no match for Hacker des Places, he still had fifty lengths in hand over the third. Though he handled the heavy ground well enough on that occasion, his hurdling was far from impressive and he was similarly moderate here as he hopped and skewed his way around the Warwickshire venue. Initially settled towards the rear, he made headway along the back and began the turn for home in second place. However, he quickly found himself outpaced and a tired jump at the penultimate flight marked the end of his involvement whereafter he finished nineteen lengths behind the third. Notwithstanding, he still improved on his Wetherby outing and while he has yet to match his flat form, his allotted mark of 102 could be workable if he is able to brush up his hurdling. 104

                          Admiral Balko, another whose sole racecourse appearance came in a juvenile hurdle, had finished second in a Bangor maiden twelve weeks earlier behind subsequent Finale also-ran and Taunton handicap winner Pyramid Place. He shaped well for a newcomer as he jumped soundly and travelled cosily before succumbing under pressure. Racing prominently here, he was less proficient this time around as he developed a habit of steadying into his hurdles while getting too close in the process. While he jumped three out a length behind the leader, he soon found himself outpaced and would come home in his own time some twenty-four lengths behind the winner. Hurdling at speed around a sharp venue, Admiral Balko was unable to match his Bangor performance. Nevertheless, he is still in the early stages of his career and while he can be competitive in moderate company as a juvenile, Admiral Balko is probably one for next season and beyond. 101

                          Alberic, a de-facto stablemate of Admiral Balko, was pulled up at Huntingdon on his racecourse debut, and fared little better when beaten twenty-five lengths over this course and distance in December. Held up in the rear and overly cautious over the first two, he made minor headway along the back before an error three from home sealed his race. Alberic posted his strongest performance to day, but it still leaves him short of his allotted mark of 95 and he will likely need another season before he comes into his own. 86

                          Kimberley ran creditably without winning for James Fanshawe, but following a 10,500 guineas sale, has achieved little to date over hurdles. She was untidy over the first and while she moved to a midfield position, a skewed and slow jump at the fifth saw her fall to the rear and she was struggling when steady and untidy over the next. This was no better than any of her previous outings and her new mark of 75, while very generous on her flat form, is difficult to justify on recent evidence. 52

                          Balzac finished twelve lengths behind Palace Pier on his sole outing as a two-year-old, and after operations to his wind and tackle, made all to comfortably score at Newbury last July. Switching to Stuart Williams for the sum of 30,000 guineas, he was twice withdrawn for refusing to enter the stalls and his attentions were diverted to hurdling. While Balzac's flat form and pedigree (half-brother to useful juvenile Cerberus) made him potentially interesting in this company, he was very weak in the market beforehand having drifted from 9/1 in the morning, to 33/1 at the off. Racing prominently on the outside while running fairly keenly, he made a succession of novicey errors and quickly lost his position towards the end of the back before pulling up at the top of the straight. As this was his first outing for over two-hundred days, he was entitled to want for fitness and although he has questions to answer, his profile remains feasibly credible for the time being. 0

                          Yorkshire Gold managed to win on his debut as a two-year-old and was not disgraced in the Grade 3 Acomb Stakes on his next start. However, he was tailed off on his next two outings and was allowed to leave Kevin Ryan for just 1,500 guineas last July. Racing in the rear, Yorkshire Gold got over the first well enough, but was very slow and untidy from there and was detached a long way from home. 0

                          Sergeant 4/2/2021 Wincanton 1m7?f Novices' Hurdle
                          A dual winner in Germany on the flat, Sergeant had been disappointing over hurdles thus far, beginning with a thirty-five length fourth in a poor Leicester contest on his British debut before pulling up at Musselburgh the following week. He showed some promise when a running on fifth in a Lingfield jumpers bumper, but was allowed to start at 125/1 for this novice event. Outside of the front two, this contest was much of a muchness with few ever getting involved. Sergeant can count himself amongst the anonymous as apart from pulling early in the rear and getting close to the first, he did nothing of note, positive or negative. Beaten sixty-four lengths in the end, he probably ran a career best over hurdles but is still some way short of his 74 rating. His flat form entitles him to be better and he might be able to make an impact in modest company over further. 69

                          Comment


                          • CATTERICK 5th February
                            Preview review
                            Similar to the Warwick preview, the winner was passed over despite bringing the strongest flat form into the race on account of his free running style. Once again, it was noted that the sharp nature of the Catterick circuit might mitigate against this problem. Homme Public brought strong credentials from France, but his trainer's record with debutants should have dampened confidence. Nevertheless, the expressed sentiments were belied in practice by the caveats. Frustrating though this can be, the pair finished a long way clear of the remainder in keeping with the less exacting details of the preview. Warranty arguably disappointed, but he might have performed better but for returning lame on his off-hind.

                            Race review
                            Though traditionally little better than the average race for the venue, this year's renewal featured a Triumph entry making his British debut, the nephew of Triumph winner who had shown respectable form over hurdles. The withdrawal of Feldspar deprived the race of some depth, but the quality of the front two was apparent as they pulled twenty-three lengths clear of their opposition. The ground was very testing and the fog was such that the fourth flight was invisible to the cameras. Notwithstanding, it was still the quickest race on the card by second per furlong against the standard, although much the slowest juvenile at the venue this term which emphasises the bottomless state of the ground.

                            Tinnahalla ran to a fairly useful standard in a flat career with Jamie Osborne which saw him finish runner up on four occasions. By Starspangledbanner, who is beginning to look proficient in the division, and closely related to Thomas Hobson, Drifter and Celestial Halo, Tinnahalla had every chance of doing better in this sphere. Though sporting a hood for his hurdling debut at Newbury in December, he still pulled to hard for his own good which caused him to make several errors. It was to his credit that he was beaten by just ten lengths and he built on this effort with a good second to Sage Advice at Kempton. While he was still unable to settle, an improved round of jumping led to an improved performance from a form perspective and he enjoyed solid support ahead of starting a 13/8 joint-favourite here. Sent straight to the front from the outset, he was still fresh within himself but was noticeably calmer than on previous outings. His jumping was also as strong as it had been to date and while he still made errors, they mostly came in the form of him clipping the top of his flights as he attacked them at speed. Carrying an advantage of around a length for most of the contest, he was joined at the penultimate flight where his rival's blunder returned Tinnahalla to a clear lead. From there, he was able to sustain his momentum and extended his superiority to just under three lengths passing the post. A better attitude was rewarded with a win and a new career best. His progression should be sustained and he looks capable of defying a penalty at this level. However, the handicapper saw fit to raise him sixteen pounds to 126 for this performance which is just beyond what has been achieved thus far. 123

                            Homme Public made his racecourse debut in an AQPS newcomers' hurdle at Auteuil in September, before returning to the Paris track the following month finishing second on each occasion. The form of both contests has been subsequently bolstered and while his jumping has not always been error free, he hurdles more neatly than otherwise and has shown a good attitude in defeat. Homme Public has since joined an Oliver Greenall yard which while sending out safe jumpers, tends to leave work on its first time out runners. Nevertheless, the strength of his French form did not require him to be fully wound for his British bow and he started the race in a share of favouritism. Tracking the leader throughout, he hurdled cleanly for much of the contest save for getting slightly tight to a couple of flights. Though tapped for toe turning into the straight, Homme Public moved alongside Tinnahalla approaching two out, but his stumbling on landing saw him concede the impetus to his rival and a slow jump at the last put paid to his chances. It would be speculative to suggest that better hurdling might have won him the day, but it can be assumed that he will have learned plenty for the experience. The 100/1 available for the Triumph looks appropriate, but while his mark of 125 exceeds his bare form, it ought to be a fair mark given his stable's charges typically improve from their introductions. 120

                            El Jefe's second off 51 on his latest flat outing did not warrant his being backed from 33/1 to 16/5 for his hurdling debut at Wetherby, and though he jumped well enough, he was eventually beaten by over a hundred lengths. Though not the subject of such a dramatic plunge for his return, he still attracted outside support, starting at 12/1 having opened at 18/1. Held up in the rear, he posted another safe round of jumping making only minor errors at the fifth and sixth. El Jefe made headway from the turn for home, and although he stood no chance with the front two, he was able to run on into a twenty-three length third at the line. This marks a new career best under either code and while he would need to find a modest contest in order to be competitive in open company, his safe hurdling could see him make an impact from a low enough mark. 97

                            Machios ran eight times on the flat for Andrew Balding, earning a win, two places and a rating of 72 in the process. By Maxios and related to jumps winners, his price tag of 25,000 guineas looked reasonable for a hurdling prospect and he was quietly fancied ahead of his jumps bow at Musselburgh in December. A tendency to pull hard on the flat followed him over hurdles and while his jumping was more reasonable than otherwise, he was still beaten thirty-three lengths by Fiveandtwenty. Steady in the market following a two month break, he sweated in the preliminaries and was keen in the early stages which caused him to make errors early on. His hurdling settled along the back but he had already lost his prominent position which he would not regain. Essentially matching his Musselburgh form, his mark of 103 looks stiff at this juncture, although there is the possibility of him bridging that gap if he learns to settle better. 93

                            Warranty was a comfortable winner of a Beverley maiden handicap on his final start for Mark Johnston and his pedigree suggested he could do well in his new vocation with Harry Whittington. His introduction to hurdling at Wetherby was a disappointing one as a series of sloppy jumps mark a lacklustre performance and his quest for redemption at Kempton was curtailed as he was carried out in the early stages. Nevertheless, the conditions at Sandown early in January appeared to suit as he ran a new career best to finish third to Hudson de Grugy. However, his sloppy jumping re-emerged and though he hung onto the leaders for much of the race, he began to falter towards the end of the back and would only fade from thereon. It transpired that he was found lame on his off-hind which would go some way to explaining this performance. If he is able to recover both physically and mentally then he can be competitive in the right scenario, although his rating of 114 is a stiff one on all available evidence. 89

                            Salamanca School is another former inmate of Mark Johnston's, but after collecting a win and two places from three runs as a two-year-old, was unable to replicate that form during his second season and he left Middleham after finishing a thirteen length second in a Goodwood seller. Following a wind operation and a near five month break, he was thrown in at the deep end for his hurdling debut at Ascot where he weaken quickly after holding a prominent position up to the home turn. Salamanca School might have been expected to perform better for stripping fitter, but despite being in calmer waters, was a big drifter in the market. Always in the rear, his early jumps were not especially tidy and while he hurdled better from there, he was never able to progress through the field and was ultimately beaten by just over forty lengths. Though it might be too soon to write off Salamanca School, he is becoming disappointing. 82

                            North Point was rated seventy on the flat for David Elsworth and though comfortably beaten on his hurdling debut at Sedgefield in late September, it was not an effort devoid of promise. However, he would not be seen again for four months and his reappearance against older novices at Ludlow saw him virtually pulled up. Completely unfancied on his return to the juvenile ranks, he sweated in the preliminaries, jumped big at the first, and while he was alright over the next three hurdles, his jumping deteriorated from the fifth and he would finish completely detached. North Point's rating of 92 exceeds his achievements to this date and he is in need of a revival. 36

                            Lanval achieved very little in three outings during the Autumn for David Menuisier and joined Sam England for just 1,000 guineas. Though sire Camelot can get good juveniles, there was no other cause for encouragement in his profile and Lanval jumped poorly in the rear before pulling up before two out. 0

                            Park Lane Dancer 5/2/2021 Catterick 2m3?f Handicap Hurdle (92)
                            While no better than moderate on the flat, Park Lane Dancer's hurdling career began with a fair third in a weak Sedgefield contest in October. Though he was beaten into seventh on his next two outings at Musselburgh and Market Rasen, he broadly ran to the same level. He reportedly bled on his penultimate outing and although he jumped safely enough on his first two runs, his round of jumping last time was the poorest to date. Following a two month absence, Park Lane Dancer's return came in handicap company over half a mile further, and on ground softer than anything previously encountered. His mark of 92 did not seem generous and he drifted from 9/1 in the morning to 28/1 at the start. The closing contest on a card ran on bottomless ground, there was no indication on breeding that these conditions would suit, although he did hint at staying prowess on his Sedgefield bow. Initially racing in mid-division, his jumping was marked by his getting slightly tight to his hurdles without any major cause for alarm. However, he drifted back through the field and was under a strong drive for most of the back stretch without making any real inroads. He turned into the straight in closer order, although his progress was glacial and his tripping over the last did not help his cause. Nevertheless, the race took on a dramatic evolution on the run-in where the leader's saddle had slipped, and though Park Lane Dancer appeared to be treading water with a furlong left to run, he finished quicker than anything else and looked briefly as though he could snatch victory on the line only to run into the rear of the faltering leader with his turnoff blocked by his other rivals. While beaten into fourth, it can be argued that Park Lane Dancer was an unlucky loser - his being a beneficiary of the leader's tack malfunction notwithstanding. In a move sure to infuriate connections, he has since been raised a pound to 93. Nevertheless, he has shown that a trip has brought about improvement and if he can maintain this level of form then he could feasibly be well treated in the appropriate circumstances. 100

                            Comment


                            • Hereford typically hosts a couple of juvenile hurdlers per season, although most tend to be moderate affairs. The last time one was held in February was in 2009 which was taken by Tim Vaughan's Ski Sunday who would finish second in that year's Fred Winter and Anniversary Hurdles. While only a maiden contest, this year's renewal looks above average for the venue with fairly useful place form brought by Herbiers, Mr Shady and Table Mountain, and the newcomers including an ex-French chaser and a Triumph Hurdle entry. Said to go in the wrong direction, Hereford racecourse is a flat, right handed one with a sharp home turn and slightly downhill finish. Despite its nature, the average winning DIs of 0.86 median, 1.07 mean are below average due largely to the ground often being testing. The clear round and completion rates are also below average, but while newcomers are more prone to making errors here, their strike rate is higher than those with experience. The going is currently soft with showers forecast in the meantime.

                              Triumph Odds
                              Green Book 66/1

                              Balzac bg Evan Williams f2-1-0 (82) 81 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
                              Lope De Vega (Montjeu){8-f}(0.93) 0.5 Cerberus 6th Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2020
                              Having two runs for Ed Walker in as many years, Balzac made his debut at Sandown in September 2019 finishing twelve lengths behind multiple Group 1 winner Palace Pier. Following operations to his wind and tackle, his return came at Newbury back in July where he raced freely and made all to comfortably take a twelve furlong novice stakes. After fetching 30,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale, he was withdrawn from engagements at Sandown and Nottingham after refusing to enter the stalls and has since switched to Evan Williams for a hurdling career. His introduction to the discipline came at Warwick a fortnight ago and while his flat form and pedigree (half-brother to useful juvenile Cerberus) made him potentially interesting, he was very weak in the market beforehand having drifted from 9/1 in the morning, to 33/1 at the off. Racing prominently on the outside while running fairly keenly, he made a succession of novicey errors and quickly lost his position towards the end of the back before pulling up at the top of the straight. As this was his first outing for over two-hundred days, he was entitled to want for fitness although he has questions to answer in what is a fairly useful looking contest.

                              Bourbali bg Colin Tizzard j4-0-1 (101) 93 108
                              Sinndar (Saint Des Saints){1-b}(1.18) 2/1 Tamarinbleu 1st Clarence House Chase (G1), Ascot 2008
                              By Sinndar, out of a half-sister to Tamarinbleu and related to numerous other winning juveniles, Bourbali looked to have a bright future when narrowly failing to make a winning racecourse debut at Plumpton in September. He shaped well despite finishing fourth next time at Chepstow, but his next two efforts at Exeter in December, and on his handicap debut at Wincanton on Boxing Day, have been disappointing. Given nearly eight weeks to freshen up, he returns to the track just as his yard is regaining its form and the conditions at Hereford tomorrow are likely to suit. While he needs to find a good half-stone with a few of these, a respectable showing would not be entirely ruled out.

                              Cabot Hills bg Rebecca Curtis f4-0-1 (76) 80
                              Gleneagles (Danehill){8-f}(0.88) 0.5 Desert Island 2nd 3m Maiden Hurdle, Tipperary 2020
                              A half-brother to Fillies' Mile runner-up September, out of dual Oaks winner Peeping Fawn and from the extended family of El Gran Senor, connections will not have had a juvenile hurdle at Hereford in mind for Cabot Hills. Nevertheless, his best efforts on the flat, namely a second at Leopardstown on his debut in 2019, and a midfield finish in a Fairyhouse handicap last time out in June, were not enough to keep him in the Coolmore colours. Since his last racecourse appearance, he has had surgery on his wind and privates before joining a yard whose record in the sphere is little better than fair, and is without a first time winning juvenile from eleven attempts. The quality of his flat form is respectable. On his penultimate outing, he finished within seven lengths of classic winners Galileo Chrome and Serpentine, and two and a half lengths in front of Zanahiyr, with his latest start seeing him finish fourth off 81 at Fairyhouse where he finished ahead of a pair of subsequent winners. Gleneagles has made a reasonable start as a jumps sire and Cabot Hills is a half-brother to a placed hurdler over three miles. Nevertheless, there is a lengthy absence to overcome and the ground will be much more testing than anything encountered to this point.

                              Green Book bg Venetia Willams f11-0-7 FrF (75) 77
                              Authorized (Oratorio){1-c}(0.71) 5/3 Salar Fircroft 2nd Corsa Siepi dei 4 Anni Hurdle (G2), Merano 2012

                              Green Book started his career with Brian Ellison before being sent to race in France under the care of Patrick Monfort. A veteran of thirteen races, Green Book has yet to get his head in front, but he has reached the first three on eight occasions and his rating of 75 is fair for the division. While a maiden with his ability and experience might raise eyebrows, there is little in his races to suggest that he is of a dishonest disposition. Following a €30,000 sale at Arqana in the Autumn, he joined a Venetia Williams yard which has handled the likes of Houblon des Obeaux, Stow and Zamdy Man as juveniles. While the stable has been without a winning juvenile since March 2015, they have seen fit to give Green Book an entry for the Triumph Hurdle. However, while Authorized is an excellent sire in the discipline, there is little hurdling prowess on the damline and the flat form is not especially outstanding in this particular contest. Furthermore, while Venetia Williams is in decent form at the moment, her first time out strike rate with juveniles is just under 7% with none of her French recruits scoring first time. Green Book is an interesting recruit to the sphere, although he is probably not Triumph class and will likely improve for the experience in any case.

                              Herbiers bg Oliver Greenall b3-1-0 66 j1-0-1 (-) 109 117
                              Waldpark (Saddanian){u}(1.00) 1/0 Quanlanke 5th Prix Andre Michel (G3), Auteuil 2008

                              After finishing fourth on his debut in a bumper at Vichy in May, Herbiers made amends by winning at Moulins the following month. There he made much of the running and though he was headed turning for home, he battled on bravely to score by short neck on the line. The runner-up followed up in a course and distance contest in September before winning on his hurdles debut at Auteuil by seventeen lengths from Homme Public and Houx Gris. The pair finished over five lengths clear of a subsequent winner and Herbiers passed the Arqana ring unsold despite attracting a bid of €100,000. Whatever he eventually cost must have looked very expensive at Huntingdon back in November as was beaten by sixty lengths in a junior bumper. Eschewing Wetherby for the better ground at Musselburgh on New Year's Day, he was unconsidered in the market and drifted from 20/1 in the morning to 50/1 at the off. Racing wide and tracking the leader throughout, he was briefly caught for pace on the home turn, but was able to stay on up the run-in and had enough to fend off the the late challenge from the third. He settled well into the race and apart from being untidy at the second, was largely a proficient jumper. That form is already as strong as anything brought into this contest and has since been substantiated with the first and third filling the same places at in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle. Oliver Greenall's juveniles invariably improve on their debut outings and though the yard was badly out of form recently, it did enjoy a couple of placings and the booking of Paddy Brennan is another positive.

                              Hooroo bg Olly Murphy f14-1-3 (63) 70 j1-0-0 (-) 80 82
                              Hallowed Crown (Dubawi){1-t}(1.18) 2/2 Lando Blue 2nd Listed Handicap Hurdle (123), Clairefontaine 2016
                              A winner of a Nottingham nursery at the seventh time of asking, Hooroo broadly ran to the same level in seven outings during 2020 while showing some tenacity from the front without winning. Sold out of the Karl Burke yard for 10,000 guineas, he joined an Olly Murphy yard with a reasonable record in the division. He was thrown in at the deep end for his hurdling bow at Ascot and was not well fancied in the market. Racing in the rear throughout, he was steady and slow over several flights without hurdling particularly cleanly and was unable to make any headway. He might fare better in calmer waters and appears to be the stable's first string on jockey bookings, but there are several rivals here who have already established themselves as fairly useful.

                              Island Nation chg Olly Murphy f10-2-2 (75) 80 j1-0-0 (-) 86 97
                              Ruler Of The World (Raven's Pass){16-a}(0.66) 2/1 Tomorrow Mystery 1st 2m?f Handicap Hurdle (124), Newbury 2020
                              Island Nation won two of his last three starts on the flat, with those wins coming either side of a short head second at Kempton. These efforts all came over around twelve furlongs on the all-weather where the ground was riding slower than standard, and several of those who reached the frame on the last two outings have several subsequent wins amongst them. Ending his spell with Heather Main rated 75, he joined Olly Murphy for 21,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Making his hurdling debut against older novices at Newbury four weeks ago, Island Nation drifted from 10/1 to 14/1 in a market dominated by the winning favourite. Starting off somewhat keen in mid division, he got in very close to the first where he badly skewed and caused his rider to lose his irons. This saw him demoted to a rear position. His jumping was still novicey along the back where he was steady and slow over the second, big and slow over the third, and wandered on the approach to the fifth where he jumped left and hampered himself in a violent fashion. Island Nation was still able to make steady progress towards the end of the back and was just behind the leading group turning for home. He began to be niggled along and lost further momentum when reaching at three out and was slow to get away from the penultimate flight. From here, he was unable to make any impression before finishing fifth by the best part of forty lengths. There were hints of promise, but he will need to considerably improve on his hurdling and he does not appear to be the stable's first string.

                              Mr Shady grg J S Moore f19-1-5 (61) 72 j3-0-1 (117) 111 117
                              Elzaam (Definite Article){4-i}(2.00) 3/1 Fontaine Fables 1st Novice Hurdle, Fairyhouse 1996
                              A veteran of twenty races to date, Mr Shady was able to collect a Lingfield handicap on the flat and his rating of 63 in that sphere is justified. He made an encouraging hurdles debut when fourth of eleven at Ludlow in November and while he started at 80/1 and was still beaten by nearly twenty lengths, the performance broadly matched his flat form. He made errors at half of his jumps, but his trainer's juveniles are not known to fall and he put up a better round next time at Wetherby when second to First Impression. Mr Shady was cast in exalted company next time in the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow, but his being keen and making a couple of errors did not help his cause. He was not disgraced in finishing just over thirty lengths behind the winner and his mark of 117 is a fair reflection of his ability. Mr Shady returned to the flat eighteen days ago and was not disgraced in finishing just over five lengths fifth in a Lingfield handicap. This will have sharpened him up and he would not be easily ruled out, although a sounder surface would be more appropriate.

                              One Last Glance bg Tom Gretton Unraced
                              Passing Glance (Tomba){7-a}(1.15) 2/1 Brigadier Miller 3rd Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 2015
                              Racecourse debutants have a strike rate of 2.12% in juvenile hurdles since 2008/09 and Tom Gretton has not saddled a winner from ten horses. Passing Glance is one of the more successful, if unheralded, sires of juvenile hurdlers and One Last Glance is out of a half-sister to the fairly useful Brigadier Miller. The damline becomes even more intriguing by the next generation as his granddam is a half-sister to 1992 Champion Hurdler Royal Gait, with decent sorts General Miller (3/3), Lieutenant Miller (3/4) and Contraband (4/3) appearing further back. Notwithstanding, intriguing though the pedigree may be, the lack of experience and the trainer's record are not insignificant concerns.

                              Saint Palais bg Richard J Bandey j2-0-1 (-) 68
                              Saint Des Saints (Turgeon){26}(1.29) 1/1 Lord Du Mesnil 2nd National Hunt Chase (G2), Cheltenham 2020

                              Cutting his teeth in the point to point field, Richard Bandey began training under rules in 2018 and Saint Palais is set to be his first juvenile hurdler. One of Francois Nicolle's four runners in the Prix d'Essai des Poulains back in March, Saint Palais was the third string in the market, just ahead of stablemate Quilixios. In the event, Quilixios won with ease and is now a leading fancy for the Triumph, while Saint Palais lacked fluency and finished a tailed off last. Following a break of close to eight months, he returned in a nineteen furlong steeple chase at Maure de Bretagne. A contest worth just €12,000, it resembled more a cross country chase and Saint Palais jumped rather inconsistently before closing on the leaders and failing to win by a narrow margin. The quality of the form is negligible outside of the provinces, but race did hint at the very likely future for Saint Palais. A full brother to Lord du Mesnil, his dam and two other siblings won over fences as four-year-olds, and the Scottish National runner-up Goonyella along with the excellent French stayer Shannon Rock appear at 3/2 on the damline. Bred to make a staying chaser, Saint Palais is unlikely to make much impact in this discipline outside of very moderate company.

                              Simply True chg D J Jeffreys f18-4-1 (85) 87 j2-0-0 (-) 74 76
                              Camacho (Beat Hollow){5-h}(1.46) 2/1 Dr Livingstone 1st Novices' Hurdle, Leicester 2009
                              Rated 85 after winning a Killarney handicap on his penultimate start for Andrew Oliver, Simply True was thrown in at the deep end for his hurdling debut and beat just one home at Cheltenham behind Adagio in December. The waters at Newbury four weeks ago were calmer ones and he was backed in from 66/1 in the morning to 18/1 at the off. Settling in the rear, he had a tendency to wander on the approach to his flights, but was much more assured and competent than at Cheltenham, making his only real error when pecking at the third. However, he was already losing touch leaving the back and was pulled up before jumping the first in the straight. While there is some talent there, and he is clearly thought better than this, Simply True is becoming rather disappointing and there is no obvious reason why he might reverse placings with Island Nation.

                              Yorkshire Gold bg Nikki Evans f4-1-0 (85) 87 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
                              Muhaarar (Intikhab){20-c}(1.00) 3/2 Insoumis 1st Claiming Hurdle, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2016
                              Yorkshire Gold managed to win on his debut as a two-year-old and was not disgraced in the Grade 3 Acomb Stakes on his next start. However, he was tailed off on his next two outings and was allowed to leave Kevin Ryan for just 1,500 guineas last July. Making his hurdling debut at Warwick a fortnight ago, Yorkshire Gold got over the first well enough, but was very slow and untidy from there and was detached a long way from home before pulling up.

                              Sarceaux grf Alexandra Dunn f3-0-0 FrF 30.5 (67.1) 62 j2-0-0 (-) 85 92
                              Rajsaman (Elusive City){16-g}(0.67) 0.5 Saint Contest 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2016
                              Beginning her career with Mikel Delzangles, Sarceaux won at Le Croise Laroche before leaving France for €16,016 after finishing fourth in a Dieppe claimer. She finished twenty-seven lengths fifth on her hurdles debut at Kempton in December and was not well fancied to improve on that showing at Ascot next time. Held up in touch, she raced keenly but jumped well in the main before steadying and hopping over the fifth when beginning to lose ground. Modest ground was made during the final two furlongs and she might be the type to get a trip on better ground. However, she looks little better than moderate at this juncture and while this competition is less demanding, she still has something to find.

                              Table Mountain bf Tom Symonds f7-1-1 (91) 93 j1-0-1 (-) 104 109
                              Phoenix Reach (Mount Nelson){22-c}(1.00) 2/1 Ranch Hand 1st Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 2020
                              Winning one of her seven starts on the flat for Andrew Balding, Table Mountain's official rating of 91 is the highest brought to the division by a filly this term. By Phoenix Reach and from the family of Ranch Hand, Scorned and Desert Quest, she is bred to do well in the discipline and was well spoken of by the trainer who acquired her for 57,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale. Table Mountain's hurdling debut came at Kempton in January. However, despite the non-runner, she doubled in price throughout the day having opened as the 5/2 favourite. Furthermore, her jumping was the least fluent of the leading three as she hopped and trailed her legs through the first, reached for the fourth, bunny-hopped the next and lost momentum at three out when steady and slow. Her cause was not helped by being squeezed on landing at the penultimate flight, but having raced prominently throughout, she was too one paced in the closing stages to make a real bearing on the contest. While there was no disgrace in finishing behind Sage Advice and Tinnahalla, second at Warwick and first at Catterick next time out, it was some way short of her best flat form. Table Mountain has the ability to win over the minimum trip, although she may be of more interest with experience over a longer distance when the yard is in better form.

                              Strong prospects
                              1. Herbiers
                              Reasonable prospects
                              2. Table Mountain
                              3. Bourbali
                              4. Green Book
                              Feasible prospects
                              5. Mr Shady
                              6. Cabot Hills
                              7. Saint Palais
                              8. Balzac
                              Moderate prospects
                              9. Sarceaux
                              10. Hooroo
                              11. Island Nation
                              12. Simply True
                              13. One Last Glance
                              Negligible prospects
                              14. Yorkshire Gold

                              Comment


                              • Held regularly up to 2011, tomorrow's juvenile hurdle at Fontwell went on an hiatus before returning in 2018. Though falling victim to the weather last season, the previous two renewals with 2018 seeing the introduction of the useful Monsieur Lecoq, and 2019 being taken by subsequent Anniversary Hurdle third Christopher Wood. This year's edition has attracted just four runners, but it is a tidy little contest nevertheless with three having already won over obstacles, and the fourth being a flat winner for fairly local trainer Gary Moore. Fontwell's average winning DIs of 1.14 and 1.44 are each above standard, but they drop dramatically to 0.63 and 0.72 for juvenile hurdles contested during February. The forecast heavy ground and scheduled inspection for tomorrow morning offer a very viable explanation for same.

                                Triumph Odds
                                Sage Advice 50/1

                                Fred Winter
                                Sage Advice 25/1
                                Hystery Bere 33/1

                                Hystery Bere bg Tom Symonds f3-0-1 (-) 56 j6-1-3 (125) 117 118
                                Pedro The Great (Mystery Storm){5-i}(1.00) 0.5 Chabal'ozor PU 4YO Conditions Hurdle, Auteuil 2013

                                Finishing down the field in three outings as a two-year-old, Hystery Bere was one of the outsiders on his hurdling debut at Compiegne in a race won by Quilixios. Though he was towards the rear of the field, he was still in touch when giving his rider no chance of maintaining the partnership three from home. Following a respectable ten length fourth to Baladin de Mesc at Angers, he twice finished runner-up in conditions events at Senonnesand Le Lion-d'Angers. Returning to that venue three weeks later, Hystery Bere finally got off the mark where, save for getting close to the fourth, he capped off a neat round of jumping to run out a decisive eight length winner. Third placed Harrisburg is a subsequent winner currently rated 136.4, but the rest of the field have done little to bolster the form. Four of Jo?l Boisnard's five previous graduates into the sphere failed to win, but the one who did, Song For Someone, is developing into a very talented hurdler for Hystery Bere's connections. Making his British debut at the start of the year, Hystery Bere the ground at Sandown was the softest encountered to date and his starting price doubled in the ring to 5/1. Sporting a first time tongue tie following a break of 157 days, he was slightly untidy over the first couple of flights and got in close to the sixth and seventh. Nevertheless, he was neat more often than not and was slightly baulked on landing after the winner crossed his path. Though he was beaten entirely on merit by Gary Moore's Hudson de Grugy, it was still a promising introduction. Nevertheless, he would likely be seen in a better light on a sounder surface.

                                Naizagai bg Fergal O'Brien f5-0-4 (76) 78 j6-1-4 (118) 113 120
                                Dark Angel (Galileo){9-b}(0.90) 3/1 Oxymeron 1st Handicap Hurdle, Lingfield 1990
                                Winning well on his hurdling debut at Cartmel back in August, Naizagai had wind operation shortly afterwards. His return was somewhat disappointing behind Cabot Cliffs at Uttoxeter, but was a respectable second to Talking About You at Ludlow before switching his attentions to handicaps. After finishing second in the Sandown mud, he ran very close to his best when second at Wetherby off 115 on Boxing Day. Potentially a victim of his own consistency, he was raised three pounds for that effort, but was sent off a steady 6/1 third favourite in a fifteen runner affair at Newbury four weeks ago. Held up in last place, he was characteristically keen in the early stages but jumped well up to getting close to the fifth. He had only one behind turning for home, but made steady headway in the straight prior to getting close to the penultimate flight. This slight error did not cost him a great deal of momentum, but he still had the best part of a dozen lengths to make up on the fourth and would only pass a fading horse on the run-in to reach this position at the line some twenty lengths behind the third. It would be harsh to suggest he was given too much to do, and the likelier explanation for the distance beaten is that he simply found the ground too testing. An increasingly polished and straightforward type, his unchanged mark of 118 is a fair reflection of his capacity. However, this would still leave Naizagai a good half-stone behind Sage Advice and the forecast conditions will not be ideal.

                                Sage Advice bg Dr Richard Newland f6-1-3 (79) 85 j2-1-1 (127) 124 129
                                Make Believe (Danehill Dancer){16-g}(1.15) 2/1 Lochalsh 1st Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2015
                                Progressive in his six runs for Joseph G Murphy in Ireland, Sage Advice won a soft ground, ten furlong Cork maiden on his penultimate flat start before finishing third in a Tipperary handicap off 80. After fetching 65,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn sale, he joined a Dr Richard Newland stable with a good record in the sphere. Following a wind operation and a four month break, Sage Advice recouped some of that outlay with a taking introduction to hurdles at Kempton. Settling better than he had done on the flat and jumping well for a debutant, he ran out a very comfortable six length winner from a Tinnahalla who would frank the form with a win of his own. Subsequently given a Triumph Hurdle entry, Sage Advice was the subject of solid support in the market next time at Warwick and started the race as the even money favourite. Once again racing fairly keenly, he settled in behind the leaders and jumped the first five hurdles better than anything else in the field. His first error of the race came at three out where he missed the flight and blundered badly, costing him momentum in the process. Though he recovered enough to get on an even keel with Cabot Cliffs at the penultimate flight, he was not altogether tidy and he forfeited the impetus once again. Asked for a big one at the last, he cleared it decently enough. But while he plugged on gamely, he was unable to make inroads on the winner. Sage Advice might have finished closer with a clear round, although there is no guarantee that he will have mastered Cabot Cliffs and his Triumph entry looks ambitious in light of this performance. Nevertheless, it was still a respectable second outing in the sphere and with further progress likely, he comes into this contest with the outstanding form profile. While Sage Advice won on soft at Cork and Kempton, and ran very well on heavy at Warwick, this will still represent his stiffest stamina test to date. Nevertheless, his main form rivals will also carry similar concerns into the contest so the uncertainty surrounding conditions might not be hugely detrimental in that respect.

                                Albert Van Ornum bg Gary Moore f4-1-0 FrF 29.0 (63.8) 30 j1-0-0 (-) 92 98
                                Authorized (Librettist){4-n}(0.73) 2/2 Verawal 3rd Juvenile Hurdle (G3), Fairyhouse 2014

                                Gavin Hernon supplied the division with two juveniles last term, and though with neither won in eight combined starts, they each posted RPRs of 110 and above. His latest export, Albert Van Ornum, fetched 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale and is a winner of one flat race from four. That success came on his penultimate flat outing in a €10,000 conditions race at Auch over 2650 meters where he made all to win by half a length. The standard of that form is not the highest and his ability is reflected by the fact that he was well beaten next time in a Saint Cloud handicap off 30 (BHA 66). There is more encouragement in his pedigree as he is a son of leading juvenile stallion Authorized, and is related to useful sorts in Verawal (2/2), Young Poli (4/3) and Nasirabad (4/3). Local trainer Gary Moore has a fine record in this division and his strike rate with juveniles at Fontwell is a very healthy 36.36%. His British debut came in a fairly useful contest at Newbury in December where he started at 10/1 following some outside support. However, while he attempted to track the leaders, he was keen early and an unbroken sequence of moderate jumps were detrimental to his efforts. He was a tired horse in the closing stages and through lines with Tinnahalla and Goodbye Stranger, has a great deal to find with Sage Advice. Following a break of six weeks, Albert Van Ornum returned in a jumpers bumper at Lingfield and was the subject of each-way support during the day, started at 11/1 from the 28/1 available in the morning. Keen in the early stages, he settled better after a few furlongs and went into a marginal lead with a circuit to run. This lead was maintained until the turn for home whereafter he drifted back into fourth. Nevertheless, it was not an instance of him bottoming out as he still completed the final furlong in a faster time than those in behind, and was less than three lengths behind the winner at the line. The form was respectable for a race of its nature, with the runner-up having scored twice this season, the third being the very useful Talkischeap, and the winner franking the performance by comfortably following up next time. Though Albert Van Ornum has a chasm to bridge with his three rivals on known hurdling form, he is perhaps the likeliest to handle the conditions on paper and on breeding. Furthermore, his ability to front run could be to his advantage around Fontwell and after a very satisfactory effort at Lingfield last time, he might be able to exploit the ground concerns of his rivals.

                                Strong prospects
                                1. Albert Van Ornum
                                Reasonable prospects
                                2. Sage Advice
                                Feasible prospects
                                3. Naizagai
                                4. Hystery Bere

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X