King George VI Chase 2020

[Garrison Savannah]

My brief take on things:

Black Op: Not up to this level.

Clan des Obeaux: Mustard and my idea of the winner.

Cyrname: Travelled like a travely thing last year, don't buy Ascot bottomed him argument and that 3m Wetherby win not enough to convince me, no interest.

Frodon: Didn't like his last run and don't think he's quite up to this level (I wouldn't be shocked if he was though)

Lostintranslation: His run LTO, coupled with his run last year, coupled with the Tizzard's being barely able to buy a winner make him too short at 7/1 IMO

Real Steel: He's my EW play in the race, 3m+ might find him out but 3m round somewhere like Kempton should suit if he comes on for that first run.

Saint Calvados: First run question marks and 3m question marks leave him of little interest

Santini: I think he'll get outpaced and Nico will be at work earlier than any other Jockey, will stay on but wont have the pace to reel in CDO

Waiting Patiently: Same reasons to oppose SC, first run question marks and 3m question marks.

So all in all, CDO to win, Reel Steal second, Santini to stay on past Cyrname for 3rd.

Charlie the extremely bad news for you is that I almost agree with every word of this and it’s not a race I have a great record in! Reel Steel will have to improve his jumping from last time out at Ascot to figure in the front 3 but I agree he has the engine.

Cannot see CDO not winning, and believe because Cyrname’s price is all wrong, that there’s still value with CDO at 2/1.

[Faugheen_Machine]

Charlie the extremely bad news for you is that I almost agree with every word of this and it’s not a race I have a great record in! Reel Steel will have to improve his jumping from last time out at Ascot to figure in the front 3 but I agree he has the engine.

Cannot see CDO not winning, and believe because Cyrname’s price is all wrong, that there’s still value with CDO at 2/1.

..... charlie sums my thoughts up perfectly too. CDO all the way.

[Captain Chris]

Is there a price anywhere for a Nicholls 1,2,3 ?

11/1 Sky Bet

[Kevloaf]

I've got 3 pts e/w on Real Steel at (33/1)
Clan Des Obeaux at (11/2) in an ante post double with PTKO (20/1)

That's probably enough interest for me to have without getting anything else on.....but.....it's currently a 100% book though, which doesn't happen that often.



The only horses that would shock me winning it would be Black Op. (100/1) If he placed at that price I bet some people collect. There are worse 100/1 shots anyway for place potential? A G1 placed effort over C&D last season is hardly a stick to beat him with.... but what a crap race in hindsight.

I can see why Waiting Patiently (20/1) and Saint Calvados (20/1) would attract some support.

Waiting Patiently went off 4/1 for this race a couple of years ago and got badly hampered and unseated. Since then you could argue has run over trips too short as as we hardly ever see him it's hard to know exactly how good he is. It's not a stupid bet at 20/1 by any stretch!

Saint Calvados' run in the Ryanair behind Min is very good too, Min's a proper Grade 1 horse and you could make a case for him beating Min if it'd have been over further! Min wouldn't be any where near 20/1 in this race, absolutely nowhere near, so I can see why SC is appealing too.

Frodon (28/1) for me definitely wouldn't be a Gold Cup horse and therefore people like to knock his stamina, however I think he's proven he does stay 3m now over the balance of his good little career. However, everything went perfectly when he won the Ryanair and (lifted from RP) "just one Grade 1 win from 13 chase wins; tough to hang on to his lead" and I think that's spot on. Can't see him hanging on.

Real Steel (16/1) is only interesting for one reason, and it could be a complete red herring. The run in the Gold Cup was absolutely ridiculous, a clear non-stayer at 3m2f, but at 3m he's still on the bridle and absolutely dances in to the race around the bend. I've never been more scared watching a race live as he would have been an absolutely abysmal result for me and the way he loomed up stuck with me. Now of course, before then (despite a decent G2 win against Footpad) and after, he's got no form that entitles his to be winning a King George. I took a punt on him ante post based on the GC run visually and the transferring to Paul 'King George' Nicholls. With hindsight, I probably wouldn't have put as much on, but I can see him drifting a bit on the day. Hopefully not!

Lostintranslation (8/1) has pieces of form that mean you can't rule him out. Beating TOTG as a novice at Aintree (who won RSA and ran well in Kauto Star) as well as a close up Gold Cup 3rd are very creditable. Also, you could argue he's got better form where he's needed a bit of speed too, all those runs against Defi Du Seuil (G1 winning 2 miler) mean he isn't a boat? He should have the tools to win this race, and went off 15/8 last year! He flopped though, and was crap on re-appearance at Haydock absolutely walloped 47L. If you knew he'd put his best hoofs forward he's a belting price, but can you trust that?! I'm not sure you can, so if he wins I won't kick myself, but I won't be on him.

Santini (6/1) I think we can all predict pretty well. What Charlie has said above is probably spot on. I think he's going to be steaming home but the race might be gone by that point. If I had to put my neck on the line though I'd say he will get a place, but won't win. I won't back that though as the likely price. If he drifts though it'll be on my mind!

Cyrname (11/4) is so talented, I've never warmed to him though. If he hadn't bounced back last time he'd be a big price here. He was 2nd but absolutely thrashed 21L last year and the race fell apart. He then was beaten when falling at Ascot. Beating Altior in heavy ground beforehand was given as an excuse. Not the strongest bit of defense I've ever heard. Anyway, he then did two things he hadn't done before last time, which was win left handed and win over 3 miles.... but this is the reason I am going to oppose him at the price of 11/4. He was a bigger price (3/1) to win the Grade 2, against Vinndication, than he is to win the King George Grade 1. Now I understand it's not that simple, but when you're looking to oppose a horse, that's a funny and quirky angle that I'll hang my hat on... even if he wins, he was worse value than the race before, so muck.

Clan Des Obeaux (9/4) can't really be knocked. A dual King George winner, the 2nd fav he beat 21L last year, a creditible 2nd at Haydock on his first run of the season, he'll be spot on for this (I know Nicholls said he woudl be at Haydock, but if anyone believes that was the target and not this, they're mental). Having gone through it, whilst nothing would really surprise me, I agree with the chaps above, CDO is the one I'd want to be on!

• Just had 4 pts at 7/2 on the double with Epatante with Skybet

[Quevega]

If Clan is still around the 9/4 mark or gets bigger, he's a 10 pointer for me.
I'd worry about Cyrname as he has been a big bet for me on a couple of occasions, but cannot see why Clan won't win comfortably.

[Kevloaf]

If Clan is still around the 9/4 mark or gets bigger, he's a 10 pointer for me.
I'd worry about Cyrname as he has been a big bet for me on a couple of occasions, but cannot see why Clan won't win comfortably.

Can see me having another 6 points on to join you on the morning to be fair.

I'd also be happy not doing anything though at this stage.

[Outlaw]

If Clan is still around the 9/4 mark or gets bigger, he's a 10 pointer for me.
I'd worry about Cyrname as he has been a big bet for me on a couple of occasions, but cannot see why Clan won't win comfortably.

10pter, do you increase stakes for value or just on strong opinions? If it's the former what would you have him at Q?

[charlie]

If Clan is still around the 9/4 mark or gets bigger, he's a 10 pointer for me.
I'd worry about Cyrname as he has been a big bet for me on a couple of occasions, but cannot see why Clan won't win comfortably.

100% this Q. Will be following suit

[Kevloaf]

10pter, do you increase stakes for value or just on strong opinions? If it's the former what would you have him at Q?

He doesn't have anything but strong opinions

[Outlaw]

He doesn't have anything but strong opinions

So long as they are before the booze and not after He's a fair enough price to have a win bet but braver punters than me whacking 10pts on.

[Quevega]

10pter, do you increase stakes for value or just on strong opinions? If it's the former what would you have him at Q?

Most of the time it's when I believe I can narrow the opposition (likely winners) down to 1 or 2. And the prices are wrong on the main 2.
This looks a bit deeper than some recent renewals.
But I believe the top 2 in the market are the right ones.
But CDO should be 7/4 ish.
So in what I think is a 2 horse race (for the win)
9/4 would be worth a decent bet.
5/2 would be really good value.

So a bit of both.
Especially If I fancy one of them - and they are wrongly priced

[Outlaw]

Most of the time it's when I believe I can narrow the opposition (likely winners) down to 1 or 2. And the prices are wrong on the main 2.
This looks a bit deeper than some recent renewals.
But I believe the top 2 in the market are the right ones.
But CDO should be 7/4 ish.
So in what I think is a 2 horse race (for the win)
9/4 would be worth a decent bet.
5/2 would be really good value.

So a bit of both.
Especially If I fancy one of them - and they are wrongly priced

Fair enough I hope you're confidence bears fruition bud, looks much better than last year and about on a par with 2018s on paper so if they all run to form could be an absolute cracker. I'd have him Fav rather than JF for what it's worth but marginal, I hope it's as good a race as I think it could be this year.

[FinalFurlong91]

Still in the back of my mind I think clan is flattered by both his King George wins

He beat a way past his best thistlecrack in 2018

With native river (too slow) and Politologue (non stayer) in behind

Then last year the jockeys of both his main rivals said they knew they weren't travelling at all after a couple of fences

I'm hoping we see the Cyrname who beat altior and who destroyed the field in that ascot chase. I simply dont think Clan could beat him in that form, and I get the feeling Nicholls thinks that too but doesn't want to say it.

[archie]

All ratings are subjective but...

Best RPR/Recent RPR/Timeform/OR

Clan Des Obeaux 178/175/167/171
Cyrname 181/174/174/176

If they're both in the same sort of form and Cyrname stays the trip at G1 pace, he should win by most measures. It would be disappointing if an admirable but bang average (by G1 standards) horse like CDO was a 3 time winner of such a prestigious race.

[Istabraq]

All ratings are subjective but...

Best RPR/Recent RPR/Timeform/OR

Clan Des Obeaux 178/175/167/171
Cyrname 181/174/174/176

If they're both in the same sort of form and Cyrname stays the trip at G1 pace, he should win by most measures. It would be disappointing if an admirable but bang average (by G1 standards) horse like CDO was a 3 time winner of such a prestigious race.

Are those numbers not skewered by having so many Gold Cup winners win the race archie ?
Previous winners Might Bite 172, Cue Card 172 and Thistlecrack 171 have had similar chase marks to CDO.
CDO will never win a Gold Cup and he could probably win a Ryanair by half the track and not get a Long Run/Kauto Star mark, what I think we have in CDO is a genuine 3m horse on a flat track, something of a Kempton/King George specialist.
If the most suitable races for him are 3m flat track G1s then I can’t see him ever achieving a rating that compares to Gold Cup winners...