King George VI Chase 2020

[Kevloaf]

if he’s double figures and they add a few hills and another 4 furlongs.

[jack1092]

Monalee still a runner unless things change....

[Pendil]

Monalee still a runner unless things change....

Best to wait until declared I would think. Might miss a few points but better than losing a stake

[luisgarciaisgod]

Not really sure I get people calling Santini a boat while fancying Monalee tbh

[Kevloaf]

Not really sure I get people calling Santini a boat while fancying Monalee tbh

Santini doesn't have any gears?
Monalee won a grade 2 over 2m4f last year (2019)

Just different types of horses, one seems to be an 'old fashioned' staying chaser.


Santini might be a better horse, but one being a boat and the other not is just about the type of horse probably.



Boats win Gold Cups too Monalee won't ever win a Gold Cup, but he's more likely to win a KG.

[Istabraq]

Looks a proper renewal but, in light of what Cloth Cap did to his Hennessy field and if you’re prepared to ignore his last run, Frodon has the look of a horse that still has some value in his 33/1 price...

[luisgarciaisgod]

Santini doesn't have any gears?
Monalee won a grade 2 over 2m4f last year (2019)

Just different types of horses, one seems to be an 'old fashioned' staying chaser.


Santini might be a better horse, but one being a boat and the other not is just about the type of horse probably.



Boats win Gold Cups too Monalee won't ever win a Gold Cup, but he's more likely to win a KG.

I wouldn't read too much into Monalee winning over 2m4, he beat Anabel Fly who probably needs further than Santini. Santini also won a grade 2 over 2m4 albeit over hurdles (clutching here)

I just don't think the race is for either of them tbh, Monalee doesn't really have gears either and I think he'll be outpaced around Kempton. Plus he seems to have an allergy to winning races. I'm probably still hurting over his Ryanair performance from 2019 to give him a chance.

Also Boats definitely win Gold Cups, Santini probably my main punt for March as it stands

[Pendil]

Santini doesn't have any gears?
Monalee won a grade 2 over 2m4f last year (2019)

Just different types of horses, one seems to be an 'old fashioned' staying chaser.


Santini might be a better horse, but one being a boat and the other not is just about the type of horse probably.



Boats win Gold Cups too Monalee won't ever win a Gold Cup, but he's more likely to win a KG.

IMO

[Kevloaf]

IMO

shit.

Yes, apologies, IMO Monalee won't ever win a Gold Cup.


Caught me hook line and sinker there.

[Kevloaf]

I wouldn't read too much into Monalee winning over 2m4, he beat Anabel Fly who probably needs further than Santini. Santini also won a grade 2 over 2m4 albeit over hurdles (clutching here)

I just don't think the race is for either of them tbh, Monalee doesn't really have gears either and I think he'll be outpaced around Kempton. Plus he seems to have an allergy to winning races. I'm probably still hurting over his Ryanair performance from 2019 to give him a chance.

Also Boats definitely win Gold Cups, Santini probably my main punt for March as it stands

Yeah to be fair I agree with pretty much all of that.

It's the fact I wanted Monalee in that Ryanair at the back of my mind proving (to me) that I think he has enough speed to win over 2m5f, therefore he's not a boat the same as HMS Santini is...


....as I said though, I agree with everything in the post above.

[Middle_Of_March]

So who is going to be backing HMS Santini?


Nobody thinks it's his optimum track...

Nobody thinks he's got the tactical pace to win this race....



So what price does he drift to, and when does he become a backable E/W put in the race....

Absolutely no chance whatsoever that the boat Santini has a hope in hell of not being outpaced over 3 miles round Kempton. He will absolutely be ridden along down the back straight.

Could not back him with counterfeit.

[Middle_Of_March]

You can put your life on someone like Skybet offering 4 places for this.

Which will make some good each way value here I reckon with the top 2 both going to be around 2/1.

The problem though is working out which of those at juicy prices is the each way thievery.

[Kevloaf]

You can put your life on someone like Skybet offering 4 places for this.

Which will make some good each way value here I reckon with the top 2 both going to be around 2/1.

The problem though is working out which of those at juicy prices is the each way thievery.

None if you have to work it out


Santini in the place only market with everyone in the world out to get him.

Ridden along the back straight, chugs along into the places.

[Middle_Of_March]

I’m a man with a plan folks... hear me out..

Most people would agree this looks a two horse race for win purposes. I’m certainly one of them. Most people would agree Epatante won’t be beaten in the Christmas Hurdle. I’m certainly one of them.

Currently Epatante is 4/9 best priced. Cyrname or CDO to win is best priced 8/13. No way of doubling them though even if we wanted to. That double would’ve paid (if both best prices were with the same bookie) 5/4.

Right.. Paddy Power right now are offering 5/1 about Cyrname and Epatante in a boosted double.

As the defending champion, I’m expecting Clan Des Obeaux to be in the usual ‘on the day’ boosted double across the bookies on Boxing Day with Epatante. The current double for the two at best price is 3/1. I’d expect someone will offer a boost of around 7/2 or 4/1 for the double even. Even if it’s 7/2, that would mean dutching the 5/1 available now on PP for Epatante/Cyrname with the 7/2 on the day double for Epatante/CDO pays 2/1 and 5/4. That’s for the minimum 7/2 double with CDO. I still think there’s a fair chance someone offfers bigger than that.

That’s my plan at 4:58am and I’m sticking to it. Only issue is there’s a max stake for the PP double right now at 5/1 of ?20. Though if you wanted to Dutch at bigger amounts, I suppose we can access other PP accounts.

Level stake means you’re getting 5/4 after Epatante wins for CDO and 2/1 for Cyrname.

Hit me with why this is a bad idea folks..

[Priceiskey]

4:58am! You been up all night thinking about that one MOM haha. I think you will be collecting. Personally if I was doing it I’d play Ep and CDO for a fair bit more and use Cyrname just as a saver. All the bookies will be out to get Cyrname. They know what they are getting with CDO a solid run which will take a very good performance to beat him. Cyrname has a lot more question marks and should be twice the price of COD imo. Good luck though I’ll be surprised if your not collecting.