Galway Hurdle 2020

[Chris]

Aramon I think will find Galway difficult if he's trying to come from behind, I would much prefer a horse that can keep a front end position and Felix Desjy for me fits the bill plus he has 5lb. in hand of Aramon,

[Quevega]

In the last 20 years, Sharjah is the only top weight to have won. He was rated 146, started at 12/1 and, being ridden by Patrick, was presumably third choice of Willie's runners.

10/1 is a perfectly fair ew price for Aramon but nearly all big handicaps are won by either a champion or a horse who is 7lb or more ahead of its mark. Much as I like the horse, I don't think that he fits in either category.

I'm not in Shanning any more but she is much more like the profile of your typical winner.

Sharjah went off that price cos the ground was soft and he don’t go on it.

[Saxon Warrior]

Aramon I think will find Galway difficult if he's trying to come from behind, I would much prefer a horse that can keep a front end position and Felix Desjy for me fits the bill plus he has 5lb. in hand of Aramon,

I'm all about Felix Desjy in this race.

I really like Aramon, but I am hoping FD is a bit better than these, with unfinished business, and improvement, from his lost season.

I think it was a good idea to duck the Grimes Hurdle, and miss being pushed up in the weights if he performed well there.

The romp on the flat was the best alternative, and he looked in great heart that day.

Then in October, he switches to fences and lands he Arkle at fancy antepost prices.

[Quevega]

I've had 3pts on Wonder Laish at 11-1 and will probably have more on if declared, and his price is anywhere near 8-1 or more.
His run in the Grimes looked obvious practice stuff.
Saver likely to be one or two of Mullins bigger priced horses.

[Saxon Warrior]

I've had 3pts on Wonder Laish at 11-1 and will probably have more on if declared, and his price is anywhere near 8-1 or more.
His run in the Grimes looked obvious practice stuff.
Saver likely to be one or two of Mullins bigger priced horses.

Yep, I'm waiting for final decs to have a low weighted improver, as a back-up to my main bet.
It may well be one of Mullins.

[Quevega]

Yep, I'm waiting for final decs to have a low weighted improver, as a back-up to my main bet.
It may well be one of Mullins.

Jon Snow - 129
Diamond Hill - 125
Fan de Blues - 126

All look handy marks.
Unfortunately, all look like they might just miss the cut.

Diamond Hill 3 wins and 1 place in five runs at Galway and rated as high as 99 on the flat.
The maiden hurdle it won last year looks ok with the next three all winning next time out and with higher ratings.

[archie]

I'd expect the cut-off to be around 134/135. They've paid the entry and forfeit now so not many will pull out. The 2m7f handicap on Friday is an option for several who miss the cut including Q's three but even here, 11 need to come out for Diamond Hill to get a run. That's probably more likely but no gimme.

[Lobos]

I'd expect the cut-off to be around 134/135. They've paid the entry and forfeit now so not many will pull out. The 2m7f handicap on Friday is an option for several who miss the cut including Q's three but even here, 11 need to come out for Diamond Hill to get a run. That's probably more likely but no gimme.

What's the maximum number of runners?

[Saxon Warrior]

What's the maximum number of runners?

The Galway Hurdle is max 20 (37 entries)
The 2M6&1/2F Handicap Hurdle on the Friday is max 18 (49 entries)

[Lobos]

The Galway Hurdle is max 20 (37 entries)
The 2M6&1/2F Handicap Hurdle on the Friday is max 18 (49 entries)

Thanks. In that case then I'd say if Aramax is an intended runner he will run a huge race. 14/1 for anyone betting on the race looks a ridiculously big price. I think he could be a horse who could improve out of all recognition this season.

[archie]

Thanks. In that case then I'd say if Aramax is an intended runner he will run a huge race. 14/1 for anyone betting on the race looks a ridiculously big price. I think he could be a horse who could improve out of all recognition this season.

It's entirely possible but, in terms of his development, I'd be inclined to consider August more a continuation of last season as he won't have had a proper break. The main improvement is likely to show itself later in the year or even next year.

There's only been one 4yo winner in recent times and that was 20 years ago.

[Lobos]

It's entirely possible but, in terms of his development, I'd be inclined to consider August more a continuation of last season as he won't have had a proper break. The main improvement is likely to show itself later in the year or even next year.

There's only been one 4yo winner in recent times and that was 20 years ago.

Didn't know the 4yo stat. If he does go close then that will be all the more impressive. Agree by the festivals in the Spring we could all be talking him up. I like him a lot.

[archie]

Probably well known that Aramon and Aramax are half brothers. Maybe less well known that Aramax's sire, Maxios, is a son of Monsun who is also the sire of Aramon.

[nortonscoin200]

Think the Covid-curtailed racing programme could give punters a bit of an edge in this race.

The last 6 winners have all had a prep race - 4 on the flat, 2 over hurdles.

But only 20 of the 37 entries have had a warm up race this time - the latest the others ran was the Cheltenham Festival more than 4 months ago.

Reckon that'll be a big disadvantage so in order to whittle down the list let's discount them.

In the last 12 years the Galway Hurdle has been won by either a 6 or 7-year-old on ten occasions (83 per cent of the time).

6 years = 6 wins
7 = 4
5 = 1
9 = 1

Five of the winners have carried between 11st and 11st 7lbs.
6 have carried between 10st 4lbs and 10st 12lbs.
The other carried 9st 10lbs and he was ridden by a 5lb claimer called Paul Townend (12 years ago).

To further narrow down the contenders let's say the likely winner must have had a prep run, is highly likely to be aged 6 or 7 and is set to carry between 10st 4lbs and 11st 7lbs.

That only leaves the following:

Felix Desjy
Sayo
Turnpike Trip
Mengli Khan
Due Reward
Hearts Are Trumps


Each of the past 6 winners had solid form in big handicaps, graded races or on the flat - and only one of them (Clondaw Warrior) had won a handicap over hurdles.

The pick of that list for me would be :
Felix Desjy, a proven Grade 1 performer who has 3 times beaten Aramon on soft after losing to him on good. The down side is this will be his first run over hurdles for 14 months. Not ideal.

The best of the others could be:
Turnpike Trip, 4th in the Royal Bond and Betfair Hurdle at Ascot.
Due Reward, 2nd in this last year off a 5lb lower mark.

The going at Galway is currently yielding and the latest forecast says 0.8 inches of rain will fall on the track between now and the race. It's due to be dry on Tuesday and Wednesday with some light rain on race day. So there may not be much change in the going.

But unless Felix Desjy's hurdling is a bit rusty (or Willie puts up claimer Eoin Walsh - not WM's style) Aramon probably need a career best to turn the tables.

Maybe Townend will draw inspiration from his victory on Arctic Fire in the County.

[Quevega]

trainer mentioned turnpike might not run.
just for those tempted, best to check on this.