Galway Hurdle 2020

[Lobos]

What price Aramax who is set to carry 10st 5lbs

Here are the entries:

https://status.hri-ras.ie/entries/Microsoft_Word__2020_ONOR175.PDF?id=1&v=20200720032755

Only 1 four-year-old has won it since 1988 - Perugino Diamond carried 9st 8lbs in 2000.

It's also one of the few big races in Ireland that Gordon has yet to win.

Can't see any odds yet - double figures would be nice on Aramax.

Aramax 14/1 with Corals?

[Saxon Warrior]

Aramax 14/1 with Corals?

David Jennings didn't even pick him in his RP column today.

I thought he loved him like no other horse has been loved by a human.

He picked Grade 1 placed novice, Mt Leinster.

[Lobos]

David Jennings didn't even pick him in his RP column today.

I thought he loved him like no other horse has been loved by a human.

He picked Grade 1 placed novice, Mt Leinster.

Based on that maybe he knows he won't run ?

[Saxon Warrior]

Based on that maybe he knows he won't run ?

Maybe, he didnt even mention him. Which isnt like him, to be so coy, if he knew he was a runner.

[Run4Home]

Based on that maybe he knows he won't run ?

Elliot said he runs in RP

[Saxon Warrior]

Elliot said he runs in RP

Yes, I read that, and Felix Desjy going in the race too.

To be realistic, at this time of year, Galway sticks out on its own as a target week of races.

If you are in training and entered there in the NH races, then probably only ground conditions training or a horse getting a knock/having a bad scope would knock them out of running in these bigger races.

[Kevloaf]

Aramon backers might like to note that Ballinrobe is yielding, soft in places today.

Aramon


OR - Ground
154 - Soft
153 - Gd/Y
152 - Soft
149 - Soft
148 - Yielding
148 - Yielding
148 - Yielding


RPR - Ground
155 - Soft
152 - Yielding
151 - Gd/Y
148 - Soft
148 - Soft
148 - Gd/Y




You doing a rain dance ?

[archie]

Plenty of people backing him on the basis that it would be decent ground (dangerous at Galway). His current OR is 155, earned on Gd/Y at Tipperary. Prior to that his highest OR of 154 came after finishing a close second to Klassical Dream on Good.

[Kevloaf]

Plenty of people backing him on the basis that it would be decent ground (dangerous at Galway). His current OR is 155, earned on Gd/Y at Tipperary. Prior to that his highest OR of 154 came after finishing a close second to Klassical Dream on Good.

Seems alreet on any ground given the figures... just seems to be in the best form he's been in.

He's a standout 10/1 with 365, as short as 6/1 with PP.

So I'll have a little bet on him now, and assess closer to the time.

[Quevega]

Aramon.
Another horse that is labelled a ground specialist (which is bullshit).
Probably related to trainer or jockey comments at some stage in the past.
Form is comparable on all grounds.
Not really ran on heavy going yet, but would probably love it

[archie]

You guys should really learn to understand shades of grey. If connections think he's better on decent ground, even if he's not hopeless on soft, then I'm not going to argue. They definitely thought his chance in the Supreme was gone when it softened up and the distance between Aramon and KD, compared to Leopardstown seems to confirm that.

Without talking to anyone recently, I'd say that Aramon was high enough in the weights for a race where at least half a dozen will be well ahead of their mark. He might even be in there to keep other weights down.

[nortonscoin200]

You guys should really learn to understand shades of grey. If connections think he's better on decent ground, even if he's not hopeless on soft, then I'm not going to argue. They definitely thought his chance in the Supreme was gone when it softened up and the distance between Aramon and KD, compared to Leopardstown seems to confirm that.

Without talking to anyone recently, I'd say that Aramon was high enough in the weights for a race where at least half a dozen will be well ahead of their mark. He might even be in there to keep other weights down.

Agree with you on the ground Archie.

It is all about shades of grey and I was a little disappointed in him in the County even though looking back he probably had an impossible task giving 12lbs to Saint Roi. Even so, after travelling well into contention he didn't find much up the hill on the soft ground.

I'd hope for a stronger finish on better ground. I see the current forecast is for good ground according to the RP.

My five-star Norwegian weather app says Galway will receive 1/3 of an inch of rain between tomorrow and the Galway Hurdle.

Thankfully , the forecast says there will be hardly any rain in the 48 hours leading up to the race.

Afraid I don't buy the argument Willie's entered him to keep the weights down for some of his others. Be very surprised if Townend is not on board next week.

C'mon Aramon
You can come on a ton
With a bit of Galway sun
Win it for the Forum
Old son
At juicy odds of 10-1

[Kevloaf]

You guys should really learn to understand shades of grey. If connections think he's better on decent ground, even if he's not hopeless on soft, then I'm not going to argue. They definitely thought his chance in the Supreme was gone when it softened up and the distance between Aramon and KD, compared to Leopardstown seems to confirm that.

Without talking to anyone recently, I'd say that Aramon was high enough in the weights for a race where at least half a dozen will be well ahead of their mark. He might even be in there to keep other weights down.

Is saying a horse is alright on any ground not accepting there are shades of grey?

Did I come out with a statement saying that I think Aramon is actually a soft ground horse? That would be dismissive of the ground, all I am saying is that the facts don't back up a clear preference, certainly not enough for me to use as an excuse. I put my big boy pants on and backed him at 10/1, and I'll potentially cash it out if the ground is terrible. (Probably wouldn't now out of spite haha)




Get as many excuses as you like in, if he loses you'll claim to have told me so, if he wins you'll claim owning the horse is far superior to backing it to win. I can't win either way but.....



C'mon Aramon
You can come on a ton
With a bit of Galway sun
Win it for the Forum
Old son
At juicy odds of 10-1

[archie]

In the last 20 years, Sharjah is the only top weight to have won. He was rated 146, started at 12/1 and, being ridden by Patrick, was presumably third choice of Willie's runners.

10/1 is a perfectly fair ew price for Aramon but nearly all big handicaps are won by either a champion or a horse who is 7lb or more ahead of its mark. Much as I like the horse, I don't think that he fits in either category.

I'm not in Shanning any more but she is much more like the profile of your typical winner.

[Lobos]

Agree with you on the ground Archie.

It is all about shades of grey and I was a little disappointed in him in the County even though looking back he probably had an impossible task giving 12lbs to Saint Roi. Even so, after travelling well into contention he didn't find much up the hill on the soft ground.

I'd hope for a stronger finish on better ground. I see the current forecast is for good ground according to the RP.

My five-star Norwegian weather app says Galway will receive 1/3 of an inch of rain between tomorrow and the Galway Hurdle.

Thankfully , the forecast says there will be hardly any rain in the 48 hours leading up to the race.

Afraid I don't buy the argument Willie's entered him to keep the weights down for some of his others. Be very surprised if Townend is not on board next week.

C'mon Aramon
You can come on a ton
With a bit of Galway sun
Win it for the Forum
Old son
At juicy odds of 10-1

He did have an impossible task giving 12lbs to Saint Roi. If Aramax runs, he may find it as hard giving that one half a stone more ! Really interested in Aramax this year. I do think there is a ton of improvement to come with him.