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Originally posted by archie
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Not saying PR wins it but it does look like a misprice.
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Hills are 25/1 on Peregrine Run yet Paddy go 8/1.
Not saying PR wins it but it does look like a misprice. -
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Three Musketeers is an interesting contender for Gordie off 10st 5lbs.
Gordon's won 3 of the last 4 runnings of this and it's 15 years since a horse managed to carry 11stone or more to victory.
TM was fourth in the JLT four years ago when trained by Dan Skelton. He was beaten 5 1/2 lengths by Black Hercules with Bristol De Mai in second.
Fast forward three years and TM won a 2 1/2 mile handicap hurdle at Aintree's Grand National meeting last year. The win came just a week after the horse moved to Gordon's yard. He flopped at Punchestown a month later and something was obviously amiss.
He then had more than a year off and only resumed his racing career 10 days ago when he was beaten a nose in a 38k 3m 1f handicap chase at Kilbeggan with Davy on board. He jumped economically and almost got up on the line in the very short finishing straight.
TM was raised 4lbs to 139 for that effort
The last 6 winners Galway Plate winners were rated (last year first): 136, 147,146,145,142,149.
The downside is that TM is now aged ten (2 winners in the last 25 years) but his comeback effort looked very solid and there are worse each way bets at 16-1.Last edited by nortonscoin200; 21 July 2020, 07:48 AM.Comment
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Ther are five entries with Official Ratings of 150 and above, a sign of this years loss of Fairyhouse/Punchestown Festivals maybe, and more quality horses, racing in the summer.
That said, it’s not been possible to carry a 150+ rating and win the race in the last decade (though a few have been placed).
My choice for the race at first entries, is a Henry De Bromhead horse, and he has trained the winner of the race twice in the last five years.
His two winners were Balko Des Flos and Shanahans Turn.
* Both were just out of their Novice Chase season
* Both were rated in the mid-140’s (BDF 146, ST 142).
* Both relative youngsters at 6yo and 7yo.
Even without a similar profile to those and trained by HdB, I would still have picked the 7yo
SPYGLASS HILL for the race.
After a first season in 2018/19 getting placed in 2M4F-3M Novice Hurdles, he kicked off last season by bolting up in a 3M handicap hurdle (very well handicapped) before embarking on a four race Novice Chase run.
Those races included
- A 2nd to Bapaume over an inadequate trip.
- Falling at the second last when battling with Carefully Selected over 3M
- An easy 6 length win over subsequent Cheltenham Festival winner Milan Native over 2M4F was his 4th, and best chase run and earned him his 146 rating.
Given that Milan Native's 6th chase run saw him improve to win at Cheltenham and be raised to a mark of 149, then Spyglass Hill's mark of 146 could well have some upside to come.
As I fancy Milan Native could become a potent force in 3M+ handicaps this year, and raise his mark further, then I think Spyglass Hill also has untapped potential over 2M5F- 3M too.
Spyglass Hill's runs last season were unsurprisingly all on soft or heavy.
There’s no telling if he needs it, or not, and no comments post-race from the trainer on his two wins to suggest he needed that ground.
I’m hoping for a bit more than the initial flurry of 5 bookmakers pricing him at no bigger than 12/1, so I will wait until all of them have quoted tomorrow, hoping for a bit more meat on the price.
Last edited by Saxon Warrior; 21 July 2020, 09:29 AM."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head".Comment
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Saxon, he'd be the one that stands out to me the most as well.
Early Doors not far off him though, trip should suit much more. Very weird campaign with him, but given connections hardly surprising.Comment
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Looking at the stats Galvin has a tick in every box. Wins this and onto the Fez. Take the 20/1TWAR Fez price is my advice.
I tell a lie. Of 11 different stats he falls down on 1. 12/12 winners carried 10.13 or less. He's close enough. What's a lb between friends. I'm sure he'd lose that going to the start!Last edited by Lobos; 21 July 2020, 08:58 PM.Comment
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Yeh im quite sweet on galvin, ive had him in the double with aramon..only wonder is will galvin last 3 miles? He was certainly chugging up the hill at cheltenhamComment
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The Plate is 2m6.5f, Ray.Comment
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Best price for Galvin in the Galvin Plate is currently 13/2Originally posted by Kevloaf View PostI have taken the 10/1 now for him just because I think he'll go off single figures.
Will re-assess at that point, obviously.
Partly because I wouldn't be able to show my face if he won having highlighted it so many times
The Galvin Plate
Will get the weekend out of the way before concentrating on next week though!Comment
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Final decs:
A look through the previous winners shows that in the last 20 runnings:
1 winner carried 11st or more
2 6yo winners
4 winning favourites
On the plus side for Galvin,
Russell's only winner was a 6yo
Elliott has won 3 of the last 5.Last edited by archie; 27 July 2020, 11:44 AM.Comment
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It may have turned too soft for Galvin to show his best as well especially under 11 stone. Be happy for a good run under the conditions and set him up for the festival handicaps again.Originally posted by archie View PostFinal decs:
A look through the previous winners shows that in the last 20 runnings:
1 winner carried 11st or more
2 6yo winners
4 winning favourites
On the plus side for Galvin,
Russell's only winner was a 6yo
Elliott has won 3 of the last 5.Comment
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Just had a good look through final entries. The one that stands out at the weights/odds for me is Three Musketeers. Eye-catching run last time. Rated as high as 150 for Dan Skelton . Been placed at Aintree behind Champion Hurdle 3rd and World Hurdle winner Nichols Canyon and also finished 4th in JLT/Marsh at Fez. Now with handicap king Gord. Dropped way down ratings now and gets a further 5lbs off his back from jock.Last edited by Lobos; 27 July 2020, 01:03 PM.Comment
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Any thoughts on Townend on Royal Rendezvous and not Easygame? I'm assuming he would have had the choice so not sure if they think RR has the better chance?Comment
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I'd imagine it's because Patrick could only do the weight on Easygame. There's an article on RP saying Easygame and Aramon are the only two he could ride in the plate/hurdleComment
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SPYGLASSHILL 14/1 is catching my eye for HDB. Decent record in race for the trainer, only downside is dont think hes going too well at the minute?Comment
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