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I think you guys have summed it up well for me. TOTG is a nice antepost horse to have for the race if you were on early enough (I was), and will go off in the 4/1-5/1 range. So he’ll either be a nice price on the day, or a decent trade, depending on how the race looks.
It’ll be interesting to see the decs, or even earlier hearing trainers coming out stating their intention to run, because it’ll be easy to get a handle on their horse when we know TOTG is running off 164. I’ve got my eye on a few, so I hope to be able to get stuck into some decent horses off feather weights that’ll be available early at decent prices.
Agreed,
The Conditional can run off 147 after an Ultima win, and a 2nd place in last years Ladbrokes Trophy, which leaves him on a lovely low weight if top-weight is 164.
I do like TOTG and there is no denying that his RSA form now looks very good. The one thing that puts me off him for the Ladbroke is the fact they are going straight there. Very few winners of the race in recent years have won without a warm up and I think with the amount of time he's had off this will count against him.
I do like TOTG and there is no denying that his RSA form now looks very good. The one thing that puts me off him for the Ladbroke is the fact they are going straight there. Very few winners of the race in recent years have won without a warm up and I think with the amount of time he's had off this will count against him.
Paul Nicholls has won it twice, with Denman, first time out.
So there may be 'very few'... but some of the few are Paul Nicholls - one of the best target trainers National Hunt racing has ever seen....
So dismissing one of his horses on that stat is a mistake for me... it's a case of reading a stat but not understanding it in context.
Paul Nicholls has won it twice, with Denman, first time out.
So there may be 'very few'... but some of the few are Paul Nicholls - one of the best target trainers National Hunt racing has ever seen....
So dismissing one of his horses on that stat is a mistake for me... it's a case of reading a stat but not understanding it in context.
Not dismissing him just think it will count against him. For me comparisons with Denman is also a mistake. He is one of the top Chasers in recent times, probably all time, and i doubt even Nicholls thinks TOTG can reach those hights.
Not dismissing him just think it will count against him. For me comparisons with Denman is also a mistake. He is one of the top Chasers in recent times, probably all time, and i doubt even Nicholls thinks TOTG can reach those hights.
Well Topofthegame is only rated 1lb lower than Denman was over hurdles....and he's rated 3lbs higher than Denman was after they'd won the RSA.
So calling it a mistake is too far - they're not miles apart in any way really.
....and I don't know Paul Nicholls, but he's pretty bullish when I see him talking, so I bet he does
Denman is a legend, so probability says TOTG won't get there...but it's not a mistake to compare them by any stretch.
Well Topofthegame is only rated 1lb lower than Denman was over hurdles....and he's rated 3lbs higher than Denman was after they'd won the RSA.
So calling it a mistake is too far - they're not miles apart in any way really.
....and I don't know Paul Nicholls, but he's pretty bullish when I see him talking, so I bet he does
Denman is a legend, so probability says TOTG won't get there...but it's not a mistake to compare them by any stretch.
Think you are on your own there Kev re the Denman comparison. I was lucky enough to be at Denmans first Hennessy win and he blew that RSA rating out of the water and won with his head in his chest. Sometimes you just can't rely on ratings alone. I'm not saying TOTG can't replicate that but I'd be shocked if he did.
Think you are on your own there Kev re the Denman comparison. I was lucky enough to be at Denmans first Hennessy win and he blew that RSA rating out of the water and won with his head in his chest. Sometimes you just can't rely on ratings alone. I'm not saying TOTG can't replicate that but I'd be shocked if he did.
So he can replicate it?
So it's not a mistake is it.
Essentially, he doesn't need to ever be as good as Denman to win a Hennessy or a Gold Cup... and I don't think he'll hit those heights either...
I just think the term 'mistake' is wrong... Denman clearly improved after his novice year....
What will you do IF Topofthegame bolts up? That's your usual arguement
Thinking back, I was there when Paul Nicholls rode the winner of the Hennessy , Playschool, off 10 Stone 8lbs. Think he would have trouble doing that weight today !!!
Thinking back, I was there when Paul Nicholls rode the winner of the Hennessy , Playschool, off 10 Stone 8lbs. Think he would have trouble doing that weight today !!!
His Torso wouldn’t do the weight, let alone adding his head, arms and legs to it.
His Torso wouldn’t do the weight, let alone adding his head, arms and legs to it.
He also won the Hennessy the year before on Broadheath and did 10st 5lbs!!!! Just can't imagine him that light !! He must be at least 5 stone heavier now. Hope he still doesn't ride out !!!
On TOTG to win this and the gold cup at 150/1 from ages ago on one of the sky request a bets for a free bet. Good to hear he’s doing well and being aimed at the race
"He is going to go for the Great Yorkshire Hurdle at Wetherby on Charlie Hall weekend as a prep run for the Ladbrokes Trophy at Newbury. He is only one win from being a Gold Cup type of horse."
Colin not one to play down his own horses of course, but at least at 33/1 you know it's the target?
I like a hurdle prep....he's a Grade 1 winner?
I'm out of positives now though, one trip to Newbury and got beat. Was rubbish last time we saw him.
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