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The inaugural Lingfield Winter Million meeting looks sure to provide some great antepost betting opportunities given the going is currently heavy, and unlikely to improve by the weekend. Only William Hill are priced up currently but you can avail of their prices in shop if you’re inclined to do so.
I’d welcome any thoughts on these races (as always but particularly so here) given the ground is a huge angle and there should be some fantastic bets lurking, it’s just a case of finding them.
Mares Novice Handicap Chase - I was most keen on Timeless Beauty at 6/1 given the underfoot conditions and the market support last time, but not quite enough to pull the trigger with the final field hard to decipher. A lot of these are unproven in the likely conditions and / or have significant stamina doubts.
Racehorselotto Handicap Chase - i doubt Brave Seasca will try to back up todays run, merely 6 days later. Although the ?50k total prize pot might make it tempting in what looks a weak enough race. The uncertainty around his participation makes this extremely tough because he’d justifiably be odds on from 9/4 if turning up and the rest of the field poor value. If he doesn’t take up the engagement, Eclair D’ainay and Le Ligerien both look ideally suited to conditions. It’s a field I can see cutting up so an each way play on Le Ligerien at 17/2, 1/5 first 3 was the closest I got but, again, no cigar given the doubts over Brave Seasca.
Winter Million Hurdle - On The Blind Side looks the obvious one at the weights with Molly Ollys Wishes having to shoulder a double penalty for her Listed wins. He’s got plenty of sound form on soft and heavy ground but Nicky remains convinced that he’s better suited by a sounder surface which is enough to temper enthusiasm at the antepost stage. If he runs, he’s definitely the one to beat in my book.
Novices Chase - another one with a favourite unlikely to turn up but one that should deal with the opposition easily enough. I had no angle whatsoever in to the remainder of the field so a conclusive no bet.
Sovereign Handicap Hurdle - this is where it gets interesting. A 100k handicap hurdle over 2 miles which is more than these 0-145 horses can dream of running for throughout the rest of the season. That probably means that the field won’t cut up too much, despite an awful lot of them not being suited by the heavy conditions. I’ll go through them one by one in betting order to make my thought process clear:
Lucky Max 5/1 - a progressive Irish raider on a three timer this year but looks defensively priced by the book and the UK handicapper is likely to give us a helping hand by raising his mark excessively.
Carrarea 6/1 - no form on soft and market / handicapper likely to be even harsher than the above given it’s an Emmet Mullins representative.
Garry Clermont 6/1 - highly progressive and went close in the Betfair Trophy which is a much deeper race than this so he’d be near the top of my list if getting his conditions. The issue is, he isn’t. His best form has come on a much sounder surface and lumping near top weight in these conditions isn’t something I’d view as a positive.
Metier 6/1 - only one place (albeit 6 lengths) further back than Garry Clermont in the Betfair Trophy and shaped as though a stiffer test is needed. Dropped 3lbs for that run and with conditions more in his favour, he’s got to be on the shortlist. There’s still enough doubt in my mind as to whether he’s ever deserved his rating to temper enthusiasm though, especially at 6/1 with usual antepost risks.
Hunters Call 9/1 - the grandest of servants but seen to best effect on a much sounder surface. I’ll be really surprised if he runs.
Hudson De Grugy 9/1 - winner over C&D in similar conditions on his latest start and every chance that was a sighter for this. His form over 2m on soft or heavy ground reads 21111 so it’s folly to ignore his chances here only up 3lbs for last time.
Zambezi Fix 10/1 - often shapes with bundles of promise but his jumping over fences let him down. Reverted back to hurdles last time he went very close but did have everything go his way that day so on balance I think he’ll find something better treated having been nudged up 2lbs for that run.
Gowel Road 10/1 - another that’s been kept to better ground in the main but does have a novice win on heavy so maybe it’s a case of circumstances rather than needing a good surface. He looks vulnerable from his mark all the same, and the ground questions mean he’s easy to pass over.
Sevenna Star 10/1 - another Irish raider that will get the treatment. I’m reluctant to pass over these three in honesty but they are being treated harshly so with ground doubts too it’s not a bet I could have.
Lively Citizen 11/1 - primed for his latest Cheltenham win judging by trainer comments afterwards and this is surely an afterthought. Ground not likely to be suitable and the form is questionable with Broomfield Burg a dog of the highest order if asked a question. There’s no form case through him to be made at all in my book.
Hacker Des Places 12/1 - really tough to weigh up although his return was poor enough. May have needed the run there but this looks a steep enough ask on just his fifth start.
Fine Casting 12/1 - huge step up in class and I’m not convinced that first time in a heavy ground handicap against much more experienced rivals is a good plan for the long term.
Esprit Du Large 12/1 - much improved run last time but this will be much deeper and doesn’t look the force of old. One that people will quickly make a case for after the event but it’s speculative at best beforehand.
Rockadenn 14/1 - solid enough for Paul Nicholls but the trainer switch doesn’t give much confidence and it’s hard to imagine that he’ll eek much more out. Might be one further down the line once his mark drops sufficiently but none too appealing for now.
Mack The Man 14/1 - this is surely the Rucker’s representative in here rather than Esprit Du Large. Beat Protektorat and Song For Someone in a heavy ground hurdle 2 seasons ago and was well supported prior to being brought down in a Betfair Hurdle next time. He was going close there which is a much hotter race than this on unfavoured ground. An aborted chasing campaign ruined last season and he’s come back this a rejuvenated animal. The return win on ground too fast when unfancied by the market deserves an upgrade but his latest run at Sandown in heavy is key. Bizarrely he was kept down the inside on the worst of the ground that day yet still travelled to the front like a seriously well handicapped horse until fading late on. That’s more than excusable given his passage and Evan Williams could have had this lined up from a long way out with the ground always likely to suit. He’s 4lbs better off with Zambezi Fix for that run and shaped the better of the two for me on the day.
Chti Balko 16/1 - has had his ideal conditions the last twice and couldn’t get the job done. As a result, I find it hard to think he’ll improve here in a deeper race (than last time, particularly).
Thibault 16/1 - I can see him running well with plenty of solid form in big fields on soft ground. The issue is he doesn’t quite look the force of old to me and it’s hard to make a case for him having much in hand despite form behind Tommy’s Oscar and some dubious enough rides.
Miss Heritage 16/1 - ran against Hudson De Grugy last time and whilst she was comprehensively beaten, she ran on the worst of the ground that day and actually did best of those who did. Dropped 3lbs for that is generous and if connections have learnt anything from the run she should be much closer to HDG. Ground is no worry with a second to Langer Dan in the Imperial Cup from 5lbs higher and overall figures of 12212264 over 2m on soft or worse. The 4 is explained above and the 6 was reappearance so it’s easy enough to think she needed the run especially given the 25/1 SP. She also set far too strong a pace that day at Ascot so you can probably mark the run up.
Antunes 22/1 - really hard to make any sort of case in a deeper field than he usually finds. Looks completely out of sorts.
Destrier 25/1 - same as above and probably better on a sounder surface although this one could be plotted with how he shaped last time.
Garo De Juilley 25/1 - nothing to make me think he’s ahead of his mark although conditions will be fine.
In summary, Mack The Man and Miss Heritage are my two bets here. They have plenty of interlocking form lines and both get ideal conditions, with reasons to mark up recent runs. Hudson De Grugy is next in closely followed by Metier but the prices just aren’t there at the moment for those two.
I’d welcome any thoughts on these races (as always but particularly so here) given the ground is a huge angle and there should be some fantastic bets lurking, it’s just a case of finding them.
Mares Novice Handicap Chase - I was most keen on Timeless Beauty at 6/1 given the underfoot conditions and the market support last time, but not quite enough to pull the trigger with the final field hard to decipher. A lot of these are unproven in the likely conditions and / or have significant stamina doubts.
Racehorselotto Handicap Chase - i doubt Brave Seasca will try to back up todays run, merely 6 days later. Although the ?50k total prize pot might make it tempting in what looks a weak enough race. The uncertainty around his participation makes this extremely tough because he’d justifiably be odds on from 9/4 if turning up and the rest of the field poor value. If he doesn’t take up the engagement, Eclair D’ainay and Le Ligerien both look ideally suited to conditions. It’s a field I can see cutting up so an each way play on Le Ligerien at 17/2, 1/5 first 3 was the closest I got but, again, no cigar given the doubts over Brave Seasca.
Winter Million Hurdle - On The Blind Side looks the obvious one at the weights with Molly Ollys Wishes having to shoulder a double penalty for her Listed wins. He’s got plenty of sound form on soft and heavy ground but Nicky remains convinced that he’s better suited by a sounder surface which is enough to temper enthusiasm at the antepost stage. If he runs, he’s definitely the one to beat in my book.
Novices Chase - another one with a favourite unlikely to turn up but one that should deal with the opposition easily enough. I had no angle whatsoever in to the remainder of the field so a conclusive no bet.
Sovereign Handicap Hurdle - this is where it gets interesting. A 100k handicap hurdle over 2 miles which is more than these 0-145 horses can dream of running for throughout the rest of the season. That probably means that the field won’t cut up too much, despite an awful lot of them not being suited by the heavy conditions. I’ll go through them one by one in betting order to make my thought process clear:
Lucky Max 5/1 - a progressive Irish raider on a three timer this year but looks defensively priced by the book and the UK handicapper is likely to give us a helping hand by raising his mark excessively.
Carrarea 6/1 - no form on soft and market / handicapper likely to be even harsher than the above given it’s an Emmet Mullins representative.
Garry Clermont 6/1 - highly progressive and went close in the Betfair Trophy which is a much deeper race than this so he’d be near the top of my list if getting his conditions. The issue is, he isn’t. His best form has come on a much sounder surface and lumping near top weight in these conditions isn’t something I’d view as a positive.
Metier 6/1 - only one place (albeit 6 lengths) further back than Garry Clermont in the Betfair Trophy and shaped as though a stiffer test is needed. Dropped 3lbs for that run and with conditions more in his favour, he’s got to be on the shortlist. There’s still enough doubt in my mind as to whether he’s ever deserved his rating to temper enthusiasm though, especially at 6/1 with usual antepost risks.
Hunters Call 9/1 - the grandest of servants but seen to best effect on a much sounder surface. I’ll be really surprised if he runs.
Hudson De Grugy 9/1 - winner over C&D in similar conditions on his latest start and every chance that was a sighter for this. His form over 2m on soft or heavy ground reads 21111 so it’s folly to ignore his chances here only up 3lbs for last time.
Zambezi Fix 10/1 - often shapes with bundles of promise but his jumping over fences let him down. Reverted back to hurdles last time he went very close but did have everything go his way that day so on balance I think he’ll find something better treated having been nudged up 2lbs for that run.
Gowel Road 10/1 - another that’s been kept to better ground in the main but does have a novice win on heavy so maybe it’s a case of circumstances rather than needing a good surface. He looks vulnerable from his mark all the same, and the ground questions mean he’s easy to pass over.
Sevenna Star 10/1 - another Irish raider that will get the treatment. I’m reluctant to pass over these three in honesty but they are being treated harshly so with ground doubts too it’s not a bet I could have.
Lively Citizen 11/1 - primed for his latest Cheltenham win judging by trainer comments afterwards and this is surely an afterthought. Ground not likely to be suitable and the form is questionable with Broomfield Burg a dog of the highest order if asked a question. There’s no form case through him to be made at all in my book.
Hacker Des Places 12/1 - really tough to weigh up although his return was poor enough. May have needed the run there but this looks a steep enough ask on just his fifth start.
Fine Casting 12/1 - huge step up in class and I’m not convinced that first time in a heavy ground handicap against much more experienced rivals is a good plan for the long term.
Esprit Du Large 12/1 - much improved run last time but this will be much deeper and doesn’t look the force of old. One that people will quickly make a case for after the event but it’s speculative at best beforehand.
Rockadenn 14/1 - solid enough for Paul Nicholls but the trainer switch doesn’t give much confidence and it’s hard to imagine that he’ll eek much more out. Might be one further down the line once his mark drops sufficiently but none too appealing for now.
Mack The Man 14/1 - this is surely the Rucker’s representative in here rather than Esprit Du Large. Beat Protektorat and Song For Someone in a heavy ground hurdle 2 seasons ago and was well supported prior to being brought down in a Betfair Hurdle next time. He was going close there which is a much hotter race than this on unfavoured ground. An aborted chasing campaign ruined last season and he’s come back this a rejuvenated animal. The return win on ground too fast when unfancied by the market deserves an upgrade but his latest run at Sandown in heavy is key. Bizarrely he was kept down the inside on the worst of the ground that day yet still travelled to the front like a seriously well handicapped horse until fading late on. That’s more than excusable given his passage and Evan Williams could have had this lined up from a long way out with the ground always likely to suit. He’s 4lbs better off with Zambezi Fix for that run and shaped the better of the two for me on the day.
Chti Balko 16/1 - has had his ideal conditions the last twice and couldn’t get the job done. As a result, I find it hard to think he’ll improve here in a deeper race (than last time, particularly).
Thibault 16/1 - I can see him running well with plenty of solid form in big fields on soft ground. The issue is he doesn’t quite look the force of old to me and it’s hard to make a case for him having much in hand despite form behind Tommy’s Oscar and some dubious enough rides.
Miss Heritage 16/1 - ran against Hudson De Grugy last time and whilst she was comprehensively beaten, she ran on the worst of the ground that day and actually did best of those who did. Dropped 3lbs for that is generous and if connections have learnt anything from the run she should be much closer to HDG. Ground is no worry with a second to Langer Dan in the Imperial Cup from 5lbs higher and overall figures of 12212264 over 2m on soft or worse. The 4 is explained above and the 6 was reappearance so it’s easy enough to think she needed the run especially given the 25/1 SP. She also set far too strong a pace that day at Ascot so you can probably mark the run up.
Antunes 22/1 - really hard to make any sort of case in a deeper field than he usually finds. Looks completely out of sorts.
Destrier 25/1 - same as above and probably better on a sounder surface although this one could be plotted with how he shaped last time.
Garo De Juilley 25/1 - nothing to make me think he’s ahead of his mark although conditions will be fine.
In summary, Mack The Man and Miss Heritage are my two bets here. They have plenty of interlocking form lines and both get ideal conditions, with reasons to mark up recent runs. Hudson De Grugy is next in closely followed by Metier but the prices just aren’t there at the moment for those two.
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