Ante Post for National Hunt 2021-2022 Season

[FinalFurlong91]

That was what I thought at first glance as well but now I'm not convinced about his general form, 2nd in a below par Stayers and best runs have been behind Honeysuckle, with the most recent 2nd being much more like the actual gap in quality between the two horses.

Thyme Hill opposable at the prices and the last run makes Thomas Darby stand out to me at 8/1. No idea why Bet365 have him same price as Paisley Park.

TD hit a flat spot in the race (which appears to be a good trait to have in top staying hurdlers) and then outstayed everyone who were a good distance in front. Softer ground at Ascot will be a positive as well.

If Buzz stays, he wins but no interest at the odds so TD it is.

Thomas Darby has had his day id say

He finds little to nothing for pressure and id be thinking he only won because the race fell apart and the other horses were absolutely legless

Personally I'm hoping we see thyme hill put the race in France behind him

At double the price of buzz I'm tempted

Then there is champ, probably the best of these ability wise but god knows how hes going to run

Wouldnt be surprised if he won easily, wouldn't be surprised if he came last

[Benjy23]

Watched the Greatwood a few times now and I still can't decide between West Cork and No Ordinary Joe. There's a lot to like about both of there runnings there.

Feel sure we'll get a better pace on Sunday as Onemorefortheroad, Global Citizen, Llandinabo Lad and Goshen all like to be on or close to the pace. Although the latter two probably prefer softer ground and Goshen is a head case so anything could happen. Hopefully they all turn up and run their races though. Could make a reasonable case for three of them individually but if all running they could well set if up for something from further off the pace.

Nicholls is a bit of an unknown. He's got two impressive wins with a poor run inbetween. Not sure what the excuse for that was? Not my sort of bet but enough to put me off backing others in the race in singles.

I can't really narrow it down enough to have a proper bet. So I think I'm going to play the Greatwood form in forecast and tricasts for a bit of interest. No Ordinary Joe, West Cork & Tritonic...

[FinalFurlong91]

Mack the man 25s e/w for me

Gets in off a very low weight

Has some back form that makes him look exceptionally well handicapped

He beat lightly squeeze who was running off 109 and is now 137

He then beat protektorat who was off 128 and song for someone off 147

They tried chasing last year and it just didn’t work out

Drifted like a barge from 2/1 to 13/2 on reappearance and is so well handicapped he won anyway

I’m convinced he has a good few lbs in hand

I’m hoping this has been the plan for a while

[TiggerRoll]

Top Ville Ben for Rowland Meyrick at anything double figures looks a steal. Won the race at a canter two years ago at 3/1f from 4lbs higher but was forced in to graded company as a result. Kirby loves a Boxing Day gamble and Dowson jocked up, looks too obvious.

He did have a hard enough fall at Aintree but got up and galloped away quickly and have to trust he wouldn’t be here if there wasn’t an issue. These fences are easy, tracks suits his prominent style and any amount of rain won’t be an issue.

Only 19 at 5 day stage, 8 last year, 10 year before, then 8, 8, 10, 11, 8, 7 so you get the picture in terms of how much it’s likely to cut up.

[Cashew King]

Top Ville Ben for Rowland Meyrick at anything double figures looks a steal. Won the race at a canter two years ago at 3/1f from 4lbs higher but was forced in to graded company as a result. Kirby loves a Boxing Day gamble and Dowson jocked up, looks too obvious.

He did have a hard enough fall at Aintree but got up and galloped away quickly and have to trust he wouldn’t be here if there wasn’t an issue. These fences are easy, tracks suits his prominent style and any amount of rain won’t be an issue.

Only 19 at 5 day stage, 8 last year, 10 year before, then 8, 8, 10, 11, 8, 7 so you get the picture in terms of how much it’s likely to cut up.

A bid for a second victory in the Rowland Meyrick is next on the agenda for Top Ville Ben after returning home none the worse from his fall in Saturday's Becher Chase at Aintree.

Phil Kirby's charge appeared to have taken well to the famous fences on Merseyside before coming to grief at the 12th obstacle.

Having emerged unscathed, the nine-year-old will now be prepared for Wetherby's Grade Three feature on Boxing Day, which he won in 2019.

Kirby said: "Top Ville is absolutely fine. He was loving it until he came down, but he's capable of doing something stupid like that!

"He'll probably go to the Rowland Meyrick again and we'll see where we go from there."

[Istabraq]

Has anyone got any interest in Rames de Teille in the Welsh National ?
Have to say I couldn't believe it when I realised he was only 9 so although he looks to have been regressing it was only a year ago he won a valuable chase at Cheltenham when rated 149, his poor efforts since have seen him tumble to 146 when not always getting his ground.
There looks to be some 20/1 around which I can't get but I'd like to think someone else will be around that mark and maybe with some extra places too...

[Benjy23]

What is his ground in your opinion? Seems to have good and bad runs on a mix of grounds.

Had a look through and struggled to like anything much as a bet to be honest.

Would be nice to see Native River win it again but would be some effort off 166.

[Istabraq]

What is his ground in your opinion? Seems to have good and bad runs on a mix of grounds.

Had a look through and struggled to like anything much as a bet to be honest.

Would be nice to see Native River win it again but would be some effort off 166.

Is that a response to my post ?
He's always a horse I thought needed deep ground but maybe that's because his better performances seemed to come in big TV races when soft/heavy, but he has some solid form on slightly quicker ground, that said my confidence will increase when I see the rain falling over the weekend.
He looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper for me...

[Benjy23]

Is that a response to my post ?
He's always a horse I thought needed deep ground but maybe that's because his better performances seemed to come in big TV races when soft/heavy, but he has some solid form on slightly quicker ground, that said my confidence will increase when I see the rain falling over the weekend.
He looks to have been given a chance by the handicapper for me...

Aye, sorry should have quoted. Fair play, hope it rains for you! Definitely well in on old form isn't he. As you initially mentioned, question of if he's regressing is the issue with that. His form in the race last year is a bit of a concern but he went well in the race couple of years before didn't he. Think he's just a bit in and out in general mind I think. Hopefully on a going day. GL

[Istabraq]

Aye, sorry should have quoted. Fair play, hope it rains for you! Definitely well in on old form isn't he. As you initially mentioned, question of if he's regressing is the issue with that. His form in the race last year is a bit of a concern but he went well in the race couple of years before didn't he. Think he's just a bit in and out in general mind I think. Hopefully on a going day. GL

I think I’d convinced myself he was regressing sharply but that Cheltenham win a year ago showed he still has something about him, could be a genius Pipe plot but I’m not sure this generation of Pipe is that capable…

[CJW]

Penciled in Stage Star for the challow and you can get 3/1.

Just seen Ginto has a entry, surely doesn't run

[TiggerRoll]

Have bet Marie’s Rock for the Lanzarote antepost at 10/1. Was fav for the Mares Novice two years ago before injury struck which shows the ability and regard in which she's held. She came back far too keen from the injury and her form suffered dramatically as a result.

Mark dropped from 141 to 131 prior to an incredibly impressive win over C&D at Christmas. She settled much better up in trip there and bolted clear in incredible style. Bowen never got serious, she flattened the last and yet still spreadeagled the field.

Now she's settling better there should be an awful lot more to come at the trip with a largely unexposed horse. The Owners Group publication nominated this as the target so that's a big positive in terms of intent and Nicky has a good record in the race, albeit shit or bust:

2021 - 20 runners, 13th 50/1, PU 6/1
2020 - 13 runners, 1st 5/1
2019 - 14 runners, PU 8/1
2018 - 16 runners, 1st 7/1, 5th 5/1
2017 - 13 runners, no runner
2016 - 9 runners, PU 5/1
2015 - 13 runners, 11th 6/1
2014 - 13 runners, PU 6/1
2013 - 18 runners, 1st 5/1, 6th 8/1

I'm fairly convinced that Winter Fog is mark fishing which takes a nice chunk out of the antepost market. Gelino Bello, Up For Parol, Cobblers Dream are all doubly entered so it might not end up the strongest of races (which tends to be reasonably common for this).

All in all, I see Marie's Rock vying for favouritism at around the 4/1 mark max come the day so taking the 10/1 now seems as obvious a play as they come. Revised mark of 140 is extremely workable and a big field handicap hurdle looks ideal for her.

[Ice]

Have bet Marie’s Rock for the Lanzarote antepost at 10/1. Was fav for the Mares Novice two years ago before injury struck which shows the ability and regard in which she's held. She came back far too keen from the injury and her form suffered dramatically as a result.

Mark dropped from 141 to 131 prior to an incredibly impressive win over C&D at Christmas. She settled much better up in trip there and bolted clear in incredible style. Bowen never got serious, she flattened the last and yet still spreadeagled the field.

Now she's settling better there should be an awful lot more to come at the trip with a largely unexposed horse. The Owners Group publication nominated this as the target so that's a big positive in terms of intent and Nicky has a good record in the race, albeit shit or bust:

2021 - 20 runners, 13th 50/1, PU 6/1
2020 - 13 runners, 1st 5/1
2019 - 14 runners, PU 8/1
2018 - 16 runners, 1st 7/1, 5th 5/1
2017 - 13 runners, no runner
2016 - 9 runners, PU 5/1
2015 - 13 runners, 11th 6/1
2014 - 13 runners, PU 6/1
2013 - 18 runners, 1st 5/1, 6th 8/1

I'm fairly convinced that Winter Fog is mark fishing which takes a nice chunk out of the antepost market. Gelino Bello, Up For Parol, Cobblers Dream are all doubly entered so it might not end up the strongest of races (which tends to be reasonably common for this).

All in all, I see Marie's Rock vying for favouritism at around the 4/1 mark max come the day so taking the 10/1 now seems as obvious a play as they come. Revised mark of 140 is extremely workable and a big field handicap hurdle looks ideal for her.

The bookies must have read your post, the 10's has gone and all in blue on oddschecker now. Good luck with her.

[TiggerRoll]

The bookies must have read your post, the 10's has gone and all in blue on oddschecker now. Good luck with her.

Haha cheers. Chris Day on Sporting Life Weekend View and Gavin Lynch both have her a good shout

[Ice]

Haha cheers. Chris Day on Sporting Life Weekend View and Gavin Lynch both have her a good shout

I waa looking at the race earlier and she was of definite interest to me, very impressive on boxing day and i know she has always been highly thought of and like you said her mark is certainly workable.