Ante Post for National Hunt 2021-2022 Season

[Lobos]

It's almost like you have some success at this predicting horse races thing isn't it?

I on the other hand, talked myself out of coole Cody and into backing siruh du Lac on the day, to go with the forum farinet punt. To be fair I'm forgiving myself of cc given Evan Williams basically said the new course wouldn't suit as well as the old. Coconut splash for the new year's Day 2.5miler anyone?

Its a lot easier picking horses out when you don't back them ! The PP GC form is always worth following for that race.

[Benjy23]

This 2m handicap hurdle at Ascot on Saturday looks interesting.

Few from the Greatwood reappearing. I'll watch it back a couple of times later but I backed Adagio that day (unfortunately) and seem to remember West Cork beating him quite well. Will he bounce for a second run after a long absence though, is that even a thing that exists these days? Can see why the 3rd that day (No ordinary Joe) is fancied as well having been keen and forced to lead the Greatwood on just his fourth start over hurdles, fifth of career. Tritonic the other one from the race but not such an obvious case at this stage.

Neither of WC or NOJ particularly exciting prices at the moment unfortunately so I won't be getting involved for now. But a race to get stuck into in the early part of the week. Starting with the Greatwood replays for me.

Any early thoughts?

[FinalFurlong91]

No ordinary Joe will be over bet after last time

Was a very obvious eye catcher but no guarantee he won't pull just as hard again

they need to try and bury him midfield

[Benjy23]

Yea, I don't think the plan was to lead last time but he pulled himself to the front as nothing was really going on at any great pace (from memory). As you say, he'd need a pace to run at and to settle in behind or you'd probably end up with the same problem. Another part of looking through the race will be looking at the pace but it was fairly unusual to not have a more natural front runner in a big 2m handicap. Can see why he might settle better but tend to agree he'll be over bet, or is already priced as if he has been.

[jack1092]

Bit of a quick turnaround, Benson would interest me. That run at Ascot last season is strong form.

[Pendil]

One that catches my eye is Llandinabo Lad who looks well handicapped.
He finished 2nd beaten 2 3/4l over cd last December by My Drogo who was getting 5lb. Soaring Glory getting 5lb was 3 1/4l further back in 3rd and No Ordinary Joe getting 5lb another 4 3/4l behind in 4th. he ran 2 stinkers after that and had his wind done for a 2nd time during the Summer.

His comeback run and first handicap run initially looks disappointing, beaten 9l by an 11yo, but that horse Hunters Call finished a 1l 3rd in the G2 International at Cheltenham on Saturday.

Tom Symonds could be in better form but Song for Someone ran on (eventually) to finish 2nd in The International.

16/1 boosted to 18/1 with Lads

[jack1092]

Bit of a quick turnaround, Benson would interest me. That run at Ascot last season is strong form.

Calvin has tipped him up....

[Benjy23]

One that catches my eye is Llandinabo Lad who looks well handicapped.
He finished 2nd beaten 2 3/4l over cd last December by My Drogo who was getting 5lb. Soaring Glory getting 5lb was 3 1/4l further back in 3rd and No Ordinary Joe getting 5lb another 4 3/4l behind in 4th. he ran 2 stinkers after that and had his wind done for a 2nd time during the Summer.

His comeback run and first handicap run initially looks disappointing, beaten 9l by an 11yo, but that horse Hunters Call finished a 1l 3rd in the G2 International at Cheltenham on Saturday.

Tom Symonds could be in better form but Song for Someone ran on (eventually) to finish 2nd in The International.

16/1 boosted to 18/1 with Lads

Interesting shout this. That C&D run does look very good now doesn't it. As you've said well beaten twice after but jockey reported stopping quickly both times and wind operations suggest there was something amiss.

That last run isn't too bad either. FTO over a trip that was potentially a bit too far. She's kicked on very early as well... interesting that he led as well though, given my early comments about pace.

[FredFlintstone]

New to the fatjockey forum.

PP have taken the position that Bob Olinger is unlikely to run in Ascot on Friday, I would have thought there is a good possibility he could run Friday.

Rachael would surly want to be ridding him in his next start having missed his beginners, she is likely to go to Kempton on the 26th.
If they do get a run into him on Friday they would have the option the go for the graded race in Punchestown.
The ground at limerick can be bottomless over Christmas.

I think with the possibility, slim it might be that Bob Olinger does not run on the 26th there could be value with some of the other horses entered PP have priced in the market. If he is not declared on Wednesday morning you will still have the option to cash out.

[Lobos]

With doubts over Buzz staying, questions over Thyme Hill after his French trip, Chump......say no more, imo Ronald Pump looks an EW snip at 7/1 in the Long Walk Hurdle. He deserves a big one after running really well against Honeysuckle twice.

[Zachx02]

With doubts over Buzz staying, questions over Thyme Hill after his French trip, Chump......say no more, imo Ronald Pump looks an EW snip at 7/1 in the Long Walk Hurdle. He deserves a big one after running really well against Honeysuckle twice.

7/1 feels far too big in my opinion for him

[That Horse]

7/1 feels far too big in my opinion for him

That was what I thought at first glance as well but now I'm not convinced about his general form, 2nd in a below par Stayers and best runs have been behind Honeysuckle, with the most recent 2nd being much more like the actual gap in quality between the two horses.

Thyme Hill opposable at the prices and the last run makes Thomas Darby stand out to me at 8/1. No idea why Bet365 have him same price as Paisley Park.

TD hit a flat spot in the race (which appears to be a good trait to have in top staying hurdlers) and then outstayed everyone who were a good distance in front. Softer ground at Ascot will be a positive as well.

If Buzz stays, he wins but no interest at the odds so TD it is.

[Zachx02]

That was what I thought at first glance as well but now I'm not convinced about his general form, 2nd in a below par Stayers and best runs have been behind Honeysuckle, with the most recent 2nd being much more like the actual gap in quality between the two horses.

Thyme Hill opposable at the prices and the last run makes Thomas Darby stand out to me at 8/1. No idea why Bet365 have him same price as Paisley Park.

TD hit a flat spot in the race (which appears to be a good trait to have in top staying hurdlers) and then outstayed everyone who were a good distance in front. Softer ground at Ascot will be a positive as well.

If Buzz stays, he wins but no interest at the odds so TD it is.

Not so sure on the Buzz point, he looks good but I'm not so sure he wins if he stays. Thyme Hill still the best horse in the race in my opinion but that France run might have taken something out of him

[Benjy23]

If this isn't won by Buzz or Thyme Hill it'll be a hugely disappointing race, as a Grade 1 and with a view to the Stayers. Appreciate neither are great prices but they're the two I'd like to see battling out the finish for the sport/festival, rather than my bank balance. Can also see they both come with dangers but they're the only potential stars in the field aren't they.

I backed Ronald Pump e/w for the Stayers antepost last year so I may still be a bit annoyed about that but he doesn't do much winning does he? Can see the each way angle and usually runs well but hasn't won for over 2 years (9 races).


TD and PP have each beaten each other once this season, and PP has carried a penalty both times - which he won't here. Can see why they're similarly priced to each other. PP surely past his Grade 1 winning days. And TD would need be the above three not to run to their best.

[That Horse]

Not so sure on the Buzz point, he looks good but I'm not so sure he wins if he stays. Thyme Hill still the best horse in the race in my opinion but that France run might have taken something out of him

Fair point re Thyme Hill being best horse, it's that France race that puts me right off.