Racing Post Trophy

[Guest]

Whatever horse wins Saturday’s Racing Post Trophy, it will probably be a good idea to put him into your notebook with next year in mind.

It went through the wilderness a little during the 1980s, but the Racing Post Trophy – and the Futurity Stakes and Observer Gold Cup before it – is proven as a rich source of future winners.

From Vaguely Noble and Ribocco in the 1960s through Reference Point to King’s Theatre and Celtic Swing in the early 1990s, the Racing Post Trophy winner often morphs into a top class middle-distance performer as a three-year-old.

That phenomenon has been more in evidence in the last 10 or 11 years than it had been for any sustained period in the history of the race. High Chaparral won the race in 2001, and he went on to win the Epsom Derby, the Irish Derby, the Irish Champion Stakes and the Breeders’ Cup Turf, twice. Or one and a half times, if you are splitting hairs.

Brian Boru won the Racing Post Trophy in 2002, and he won the St Leger the following year. The 2003 winner American Post was unusual, in that he didn’t successfully step up in trip, but he did win the French Guineas the following year, thereby maintaining the subsequent Group 1-winning record of Racing Post Trophy winners.

Motivator won the race in 2004, and he won the Derby the following year, Authorized won it in 2006, and he won the Derby, Camelot won it last year, and he won the Derby. The 2009 winner St Nicholas Abbey never made it past the Guineas as a three-year-old, but he won the Coronation Cup and the Breeders’ Cup Turf as a four-year-old, and he won the Coronation Cup again this year as a five-year-old.

In summary then, seven of the last 11 Racing Post Trophy winners went on to win Group 1 races. Six of them won a Group 1 race as a three-year-old, six of them won a Group 1 race over a mile and a half, and four of them won the Epsom Derby. Also, four of the six winning Racing Post Trophy favourites in the last 11 years went on to win Group 1 races subsequently, while, of the four Aidan O’Brien-trained winners during that time, two of them won the Derby, one of them won the St Leger and one of them missed most of his three-year-old season, but came back to win the Coronation Cup as a four-year-old and as a five-year-old.

Interestingly, of the seven trainers represented in Saturday’s race, O’Brien is the only one who has won the race before. But he has done it often enough for everyone. Six times, actually. It could be seven on Saturday.

Of the Ballydoyle maestro’s six entries at the five-day stage, it is interesting that, in a race in which he has often had more than one runner, he relies exclusively on supplementary entry Kingsbarns. The son of Galileo has a remarkably similar profile to the profile that Camelot had going into last year’s race. Once-raced, sent off the long odds-on favourite for his maiden, and won it doing handsprings. They obviously think a lot of Kingsbarns. Perhaps not quite as much as they thought of Camelot at this time last year, but still enough to pay the supplementary entry fee and to take his five stable companions out of the race. He is 2/1 now, but he could go off a fair bit shorter.

If you think that he will win on Saturday, you could do a lot worse than get him on side for the Derby before Saturday’s race. Other people have had that notion, he has been backed today for Epsom, once it became apparent that he was set to be the lone Ballydoyle ranger on Saturday, but there is still plenty of 14/1 available about him, which is just about as it was after he won his maiden at Navan two weeks ago.

If he does win on Saturday, the stats say (small sample size admittedly) that he has one chance in two of winning the Derby, and one chance in four of winning the St Leger. He is by Galileo out of a Belmez mare, but there is plenty of speed in his pedigree as well, so it may be that he will be about more than raw stamina.

This looks like a high-class renewal of the Racing Post Trophy, mind you. Trading Leather, Steeler, First Cornerstone and Van Der Neer all have the potential to go right to the top as three-year-olds. Whatever wins Saturday’s race could be very good indeed, and the race could have a deep impact on the 2013 Classic scene.

[mayo]

Twelve months after the procession of Camelot in the Racing Post Trophy, Aidan O'Brien unleashed another colt with immense potential as Kingsbarns ran out a ready winner of the final Group One of the season at Doncaster.

Having only made his debut 17 days ago, many racegoers will have only become aware of the Galileo colt, bred by O'Brien's wife Anne-Marie, when he was supplemented into the race on Monday. Some bookmakers introduced him into their betting at 8/1 but that did not last long and he was sent off the 15/8 favourite.

The result never looked in danger at any stage and Joseph O'Brien took it up over a furlong out before going away to win by a length and three-quarters. Van Der Neer got up on the line to beat Steeler for second, but Jim Bolger's Trading Leather was a disappointing fifth.

It was O'Brien's seventh win in the race and his enthusiasm for the colt was infectious. "We're obviously delighted. He's only a baby coming here but he's got an unbelievable cruising speed," said the master of Ballydoyle.

"He won his maiden on easy ground and we were intent on leaving him off for the season but we gave him one bit of work and after that he was very fresh.

"There was a big exam for this being sat and he passed it with flying colours and all his figures stacked up. You never know how they are going to react, but that's how he ended up being here (supplemented).

"All the boxes were ticked at home -- his speed figures, his recovery, his visuals and everything we do at home. The boys (owners) made the decision to let him come on his own. I'm a coward, I'd have run them all. You can never be sure of stamina but he's by Galileo. When they travel like him, though, it makes you wonder.

"He'll have learned a lot. That was the first time he's been away from home -- there's also a stiff wind and it's a wide-open place. Joseph said he was stopping in front and pricking his ears, he took it up earlier than he wanted. He's very exciting."

The younger O'Brien feels a Guineas tilt is not out of the question. "He was very relaxed and travelled well and I don't think the ground will ever be an issue for him," said O'Brien Jnr.

"He quickened up two out and then idled when he hit the front, as you'd expect from just his second run. It's obviously up to the owners and dad but I wouldn't be surprised to see him start off in the Guineas."

Bruce Raymond, racing manager for Saeed Manana, who owns Van Der Neer, said: "He ran on strongly. He looked well beaten at one stage yet when he switched him he maybe found a better strip of ground. He certainly stayed the trip."