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I've been looking over this race including watching a few replays of previous runs. Similar to Opatcho I think that grade one form, form over 3mile+ and course form are key factors here. This singles out three horses: Clan des Obeaux, Frodon and Lostintranslation, except LiT has been pulled up in the race twice = once may be due to the Tizzard out of form year but the other?
Watching some of these races I noticed that CDO's jumping can be pretty sketchy (being kind) - this seemed to be why he was out the back for much of last year's race. He jumped well at Aintree last spring but even Punchestown LTO was iffy at times. CDO wins these races despite his jumping because he stays on well in the closing stages He gave the first fence an almighty belt in the 2018 Betfair (4th there before winning his first KG).You had virtually the same runners in those two 2018 races - finishing in a totally different order- so much for form! CDO didn't beat much in 2019 when Cyrname proved to be a non stayer as Frodon did for 3m1f+ in the 2020 Gold Cup.
There doesn't seem to be a problem with staying for 3m at Kempton for Frodon. He jumps well with occasional differences of opinion between horse and jockey about going short or long. A horse that tends to be underrated and overpriced imo - because of the jockey or coming up through handicaps? His poor run at Aintree last autumn can be put down to the missing fences. Native River being beaten by Lake View Lad indicates a freak result.
So of the two Nicholls fancied horses I prefer the higher priced Frodon as being the better jumper and has a season run. Saint Calvados seemed to be a non stayer last year - never won over 3m or longer.
But established stars do get beat eventually and 7-8 is the best age range. It's odd to call Minella Indo up and coming but MI has only 4 chase wins from 9 runs and has never run at Kempton. Clearly the Gold Cup win is the best form here. MI has never run on good ground but handles GS well. He looks a better jumper than Clan Des Obeaux except for making a snall number of unexpected bad errors - falling in the Savills when under no real pressure and belting the 2nd last in the Irish GC - again seeming to have a clear view of the fence.
I don't understand the fuss about Asterion Forlonge - never run over 3m, never won a Grade 1 chase and an iffy jumper - the hype seems to be based on who the trainer is.
On the other hand Chantry House makes more appeal as a newcomer with excellent Grade One form over the distance at Aintree (no run at Kempton though) and so far has jumped solidly in his chases. Lack of experience at this level is a negative but if not this year then maybe next year.
I think Mister Fisher is better than his price but there are doubts about staying the trip and jumping. Has the ability to win a grade one imo
Tornado Flyer could well benefit from the step up in trip running on well in the Ryanair but will be be outpaced at the back and left with too much to do in the short straight: like Waiting Patiently last year?
So I see this being fought out by Frodon and Minella Indo with Lostintranslation as the best e/w value.
Selection: Frodon.
Watching some of these races I noticed that CDO's jumping can be pretty sketchy (being kind) - this seemed to be why he was out the back for much of last year's race. He jumped well at Aintree last spring but even Punchestown LTO was iffy at times. CDO wins these races despite his jumping because he stays on well in the closing stages He gave the first fence an almighty belt in the 2018 Betfair (4th there before winning his first KG).You had virtually the same runners in those two 2018 races - finishing in a totally different order- so much for form! CDO didn't beat much in 2019 when Cyrname proved to be a non stayer as Frodon did for 3m1f+ in the 2020 Gold Cup.
There doesn't seem to be a problem with staying for 3m at Kempton for Frodon. He jumps well with occasional differences of opinion between horse and jockey about going short or long. A horse that tends to be underrated and overpriced imo - because of the jockey or coming up through handicaps? His poor run at Aintree last autumn can be put down to the missing fences. Native River being beaten by Lake View Lad indicates a freak result.
So of the two Nicholls fancied horses I prefer the higher priced Frodon as being the better jumper and has a season run. Saint Calvados seemed to be a non stayer last year - never won over 3m or longer.
But established stars do get beat eventually and 7-8 is the best age range. It's odd to call Minella Indo up and coming but MI has only 4 chase wins from 9 runs and has never run at Kempton. Clearly the Gold Cup win is the best form here. MI has never run on good ground but handles GS well. He looks a better jumper than Clan Des Obeaux except for making a snall number of unexpected bad errors - falling in the Savills when under no real pressure and belting the 2nd last in the Irish GC - again seeming to have a clear view of the fence.
I don't understand the fuss about Asterion Forlonge - never run over 3m, never won a Grade 1 chase and an iffy jumper - the hype seems to be based on who the trainer is.
On the other hand Chantry House makes more appeal as a newcomer with excellent Grade One form over the distance at Aintree (no run at Kempton though) and so far has jumped solidly in his chases. Lack of experience at this level is a negative but if not this year then maybe next year.
I think Mister Fisher is better than his price but there are doubts about staying the trip and jumping. Has the ability to win a grade one imo
Tornado Flyer could well benefit from the step up in trip running on well in the Ryanair but will be be outpaced at the back and left with too much to do in the short straight: like Waiting Patiently last year?
So I see this being fought out by Frodon and Minella Indo with Lostintranslation as the best e/w value.
Selection: Frodon.
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