King George 2021

[Garrison Savannah]

First of all I want to say I really liked the look of Espoir De Romay last season. I think many of us took note of his performance at Aintree when coming down at the second last whilst leading the Mildmay Novices…but if we’re taking completed races only, his best form is taking a 7 length beating from Royal Pagaille.

So why do I mention this? Well upon reading Kim Bailey’s comments about this seasons potential targets, I thought I’d look at the current King George odds, thinking he might be a lively outsider at long odds. But he’s a best price 20/1.

Am I mad for thinking they’re terrible odds, particularly this far in advance? I mean last years winner and multiple grade 3, 2, and 1 horse, who has also been name checked as being aimed at the race is also available at 14/1 I think EDR’s stinks!

[That Horse]

I suppose if you thought he'd have beaten Chantry House at aintree, then you might think 20/1 EdR v 9/1 CH is good value.

However, that's discounting the different paths both took to get to aintree, with Chantry running in and winning the Marsh, whilst Espoir was winning down in class in a handicap around the same time. When both rocked up at aintree, I'd make the case Chantry may have had a little less in the tank following his Cheltenham exertions, plus there's no way of knowing Espoir would have won despite looking slightly the better before his fall - could have but may not have found anything when getting eyeballed by another horse.

Also, EdR has to defy a significant trend or win over three miles to have a chance of winning the KG.

In other words, I've taken a long time to say I agree with your thoughts

[opatcho]

I'm sticking close to my guns on this one, key trends I'm following

1) Course experience
2) Not a novice from last season, unless winning/placing in Kauto Star Novice chase
3) Has experience over 3 miles

Only horse that has broken these trends in the last 10 years was Thistlecrack, a 174 rated, grade 1 winning stayer hurdler who who the King George via an unorthodox campaign

Dont fit

Chantry House - Lacks course form, and a novice. Has 3 mile experience, but... still need to prove it to me
Espoir De Romay - Lacks course form, and a novice, I'll just about give him 3
Asterion Forlonge - Lacks course form*, and a novice and doesnt have 3 mile experience (but I've backed him for the gold cup lol - wtf!!)
Envoi Allen - Lacks course form*, and a novice or have 3 mile experience

*Now, it a little harsh marking down the Irish for not having Kempton course form, as its unlikely they would come over as novices. So, I will be less harsh of them for that


Questionables
Mister Fisher - 3 is still a question, does he stay. A 2 horse race over good ground at sandown doesnt tell me much
Champ - Lacks course form, and thats a concern given his jumping
Imperial Aura - Lacks course form (UR), Limited and poor 3 mile experience
Waiting Patently - 11, can't where further improvements to win this
Royale Pagaille - Novice from last season, but could be an unorthodox. Personally, not sure he'll be good enough - need to re-watch his performances
Fakir D'Oudairies - Cliff horse. Can't see it myself, questionable stayer


Shortlist
Update: 29th September
Thanks for Madmoose's post, realised I didnt analyse Shan Blue.... and boy, do I like him!

1) Course experience -
2) Not a novice from last season, unless winning/placing in Kauto Star Novice chase -
3) Has experience over 3 miles -

I really like his profile! ... and I love his price! 50/1, boosted on Betfair to 55/1

Has reasons for under-performing at Cheltenham and Aintree, that Scilly Isles was horrid! I dont want a KG winner that acts around Cheltenham, I want them to act around Kempton and this lad jumped for fun in the Kauto Star!

Unless alot of the horses higher up in the betting, this lad is targeting the King George

I'm in. 56/1 and threw in the each way aswell, why not at that price


Clan Des Obeaux (5/1) - Betfair left a mark, and last years King George lack any pace, downgrading the race to a Ryanair. Nicholls has learnt from that, similarly "dont run this horse are cheltenham". Nicholls is the man for getting horses to run up to their mark first time out, did it with this fellow last year in the Betfair giving Bristol a good battle in unfavoured conditions on a less favoured track. I'm expecting a better run from him this year, near his best. Hopefully there's a little bit more pace in this race or he pushes forward to make some

Allaho (8/1) - Not ran a Kempton however, Irish dont normally travel over. Two up on Vautour on above trends, Allaho has ran in 3 miles, and is 3rd season chaser. Not sure whether he'll come over.

Frodon (14/1) - I was quick to discount this horse from this list, but added him back on. Had it all his own way last time, similar to the Ryanair which he was unable to replicate. Will leave on short list and review again later

Saint Calvados (33/1) - Reminds me of a Cue Card, coming back his second attempt and improving on it. With Nichols now. Is this another Real Steel or can Nichols bolster his KG squad with a lively contender. Good effort last year, first time out and early season disruption. Have three concerns, firstly whether or not that Cotsolds chase left a lasting mark, secondly does he actually stay (last years KG pace was poor) and will he improve on his jumping as he jumped left at a few. Targeting the 1965 chase, which feeds alot of placed on-stayers for the King George. The more I write, the less I like

[Madmoose]

I did a blog for Shan Blue the other day

https://t.co/P7T6OWkycB

[opatcho]

I did a blog for Shan Blue the other day

https://t.co/P7T6OWkycB

Arhh just realised I missed Shan Blue from my analysis. Knew there was an obvious one missing!!
Will take a read, blog looks great

[Madmoose]

Arhh just realised I missed Shan Blue from my analysis. Knew there was an obvious one missing!!
Will take a read, blog looks great

Cheers, had a quick scribble on my dinner but thought 50/1 seemed big

[Faugheen_Machine]

Good write up opatcho

It's a race I've always struggled with.

The one I like at the moment is Royal Pagaille but I'm not sure if his well-being after the GC. He should be shorter in the betting than Espoir De Romay imo, having already beaten him last season. He's also a C&D winner, although admittedly he was probably best part of 2 stone well in at the time.

If he's fit and well they'll surely target the race, after winning the Betfair Chase

[Istabraq]

The one I like at the moment is Royal Pagaille but I'm not sure if his well-being after the GC. He should be shorter in the betting than Espoir De Romay imo, having already beaten him last season. He's also a C&D winner, although admittedly he was probably best part of 2 stone well in at the time.
:

Do you not think he looks more a National horse FM ?
I think things might happen a bit quick for him in a King George...

[Faugheen_Machine]

Do you not think he looks more a National horse FM ?
I think things might happen a bit quick for him in a King George...

Not sure Ista. He looked to pick up nicely at Kempton when he pulled clear of Double Shuffle and co but he obviously stays well judging by his Haydock win.

I think it was Spectre that was mad keen on him for the NH Chase so I'd be interested to hear how he sees it.

Just checked and he finished lame in the GC. Not sure if it was serious or not but is a reason for his average performance that day.

[Spectre]

I like him for it, and if he’s fit and well and there been sufficient rain around, you’d think he has to be there or there about. Kempton’s three miles can be a bit of a specialist track, and we know he’s put in a top drawer performance around it.

The potential issue is his fitness. He was pulled up injured in the Gold Cup, and I’ve heard nothing about his well-being. If it’s all systems go I’ll be at least having an each way bet on him for the race I’d imagine. I think he will at least place, and he has win chances.

[hardheld]

Envoi Allen Will pay for Xmas

20/1 with BF & PP is a gift with CO option.

CP will want him to try him again at 3miles to see if he truely stays. If he wins at Down Royal, very strong possibility he will come here. Davy on his back is a massive plus. APT will go Savills.

[FinalFurlong91]

Henry has said in his stable tour that this is minella indos likely early season target

I cant see him sending both indo and envoi here

From the Cheveley Park preview that floated about on here a few weeks back the horse they were considering giving an entry too is Allaho

Iv been knibbling away at both with the spare change when I back a winner with my day to day bets

Be interesting to see what ends up where

[opatcho]

I have Allaho backed for this already, but would need to take a look at Minella. Not sure whether to side with him now or see if he loses first time out and then assessign the situation and price change

[opatcho]

Shan Blue entered for Charlie Hall this weekend. I've backed him at big price for KG E/W, but I dont even know whether he'll be good enough to win the CH, never mind the KG.
Looking back on previous winners of the CH, they dont normally go on and do well in the KG, which makes sense given the conditions and types that tend to run in this race

[Lobos]

Still very keen on Asterion Forlonge for this. He looks made for the race especially with his preference for RH tracks. Will Mullins send him over though ? Odds against probably.