Juvenile Hurdlers 2021/22

[Kotkijet]

Lifetime Legend bg Neil King f11-0-4 (74) 83 j1-0-1 (123) 89 95
Pride Of Dubai (Galileo){5-h}(0.60) 3/1 First Mohican 4th Dovecote Novices’ Hurdle (G2), Kempton 2014
Andrew Oliver has supplied thirty-seven juvenile hurdlers to the division since 2006 and while Mega Fortune and Dodging Bullets were very talented sorts, their overall winner to runner rate is only fair at 18.92%. The most expensive of these to sell at auction was Lifetime Legend, who changed hands at Tattersalls for 55,000 guineas in the Autumn. Though a maiden after eleven starts, Lifetime Legend was capable of some fairly useful form on the flat. After finishing second at Galway in September 2020, he bit off a little more than he could chew at pattern level, but returned in the spring with a respectable third of thirteen at Cork in a ten furlong maiden. His next few outings were no better than fair but after a summer break, he began to reach his best form. Finishing fourth of fifteen in a Galway handicap over an extended mile, he was gelded before placing third in a Killarney handicap off 73 over eleven furlongs on soft, despite pulling hard early on. He filled the same position in a Leopardstown maiden a fortnight later where he looked one paced over ten furlongs on good ground. His tenure with Andrew Oliver ended with a tame effort at Navan and after his trip to Newmarket, would join a Neil King yard with respectable figures in the sphere; namely a winner to runner rate of 30.61% and an improvement rate of 54.05%. Lifetime Legend is a representative of sire Pride Of Dubai’s first crop of hurdlers. Being a precocious two-year-old from the Machiavellian line as well as being a cousin of Invincible Spirit, Pride Of Dubai does not have especially compelling credentials for the discipline. There is a little promise on the damline, however, as the third dam was responsible for First Mohican and The Price while the Munster National winner Star Clipper appears further back at 4/3. Lifetime Legend’s hurdling bow came at Wetherby over Christmas and he was the subject of strong support throughout the day, moving from 11/1 to 3/1 before going out slightly to 4/1 at the off. Settling in mid-division, his round was littered with novicey errors as well as a tendency to jump to his left. He turned for home just behind the leaders and though unable to reach the winner, stayed on to split the first and third by a length and three quarters apiece. A strict collateral reading of the form marks the performance as a respectable one. However, the sectionals from that contest were atrocious and the winner was well beaten in moderate company next time out. Lifetime Legend is entitled to improve for the experience but he has the most to find in this field on hurdling form and his jumping left handed will not held him around Huntingdon. Though not shown on the BHA site, an official rating of 123 is being reported which, if true, would make him one of the worst handicapped juveniles in training.

Parliament Hill chg Olly Murphy f4-0-0 (69) 77 j1-1-0 (-) 119 109
Sir Percy (Shamardal){7-a}(0.82) 2/1 Rainbow Dreamer 2nd Finesse Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Cheltenham 2017
Lightly raced on the flat in Ireland, Parliament Hill was gelded after his sole outing at two and during three outings in the spring, would twice place fifth in maidens at Tipperary and Navan; either side of a down the field finish at Leopardstown. An optimistic interpretation of his form would deem his official mark of 69 as somewhat generous, and though perhaps lacking a turn of foot, he appeared to race honestly enough. Juveniles formerly trained by John Joseph Murphy have a solid enough record in the sphere and new trainer Olly Murphy is also adept at preparing young hurdlers. The pedigree is also a useful one for the division as sire Sir Percy has a strong winners to runner rate of 31.82%, uncle Rainbow Dreamer was a useful juvenile and along with Warrsan, Needle Gun and Luso, the damline also includes dual winner Dalaki (3/1) and the top class Nichols Canyon (4/3). Parliament Hill was introduced to hurdles at Leicester in late November where he was supported during the morning from 4/1 to 13/8 before starting the race half a point higher. Keen in the early stages, he was eventually settled and tracking the leaders on the outer. Leading on the bridle three from home, he was asked for his effort approaching the last before running out a cosy five-and-a-half length winner. Parliament Hill looked inexperienced at times after clipping and skewing at the first and stumbling slightly at the fifth, was awkward over the last two while under pressure. Notwithstanding, he won nicely in the end and though the bare form is nothing special, he would have the most scope for improvement in this line-up and represents yard enjoying a good spell of form.

Rewired chg Dr Richard Newland f11-2-3 (78) 83 j1-0-1 (-) 106 106
Power (Montjeu){1-n}(0.54) 0.5 Keen Move 2nd Premio Criterium d’Inverno Hurdle (G2,4yH, Pisa 2016
Dr Richard Newland has some of the nicer figures in the juvenile hurdling division with his winner to runner rate of 40.91% in the top ten for trainers with twenty or more horses, and his record of eighty-one juveniles without a fall or unseat being second only to Oliver Greenall. His sole runner in the sphere this term has been Rewired, who came from David Menuisier with two wins and a rating of 78 to his name. Shaping well enough on his debut at Newbury in September 2020, he was off the mark next time when coming out on top of a blanket finish at Lingfield before consolidating his ability with a very narrow second in a ten furlong Newmarket nursery on heavy ground off 69. It took a couple of outings to shake off the cobwebs in the spring but was better than the result at Sandown on Eclipse day when fifth off 72 having met trouble in running. Compensation was gained at Esher a month later when making sure of a prominent position in a seven runner field, going for home at the distance and having enough to repel the runner-up’s late lunge by a neck. Raised seven pounds, Rewired finished last next time at Newcastle and though a return to Sandown saw him finish a two length fourth, too much was made of him at Chester in October. His final flat outing was a creditable one at Doncaster in first-time cheekpieces when Ryan Moore was rather too patient on his mount who was nearest at the finish but could only reach second place at the line. Fetching 45,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, Rewired was to embark on a new career for which he is feasibly bred. He is from the fifth crop of Power who has five winners from fifteen in the division while boasting a most promising improvement rate of 88.89%. His half-brothers Keen Move and Grey Mist each produced respectable jumps form as youngsters, the third dam had a couple of minor winners and the likes of Mariah Rollins (4/4), Pendra and Mercian King (4/5) appear further back on the damline. Rewired made his hurdling debut in a warm looking contest at Kempton eighteen days ago where he started at 5/1 having opened at twice that price in the morning. Held up towards the rear of midfield, he began to make headway on the far side but while he went into second approaching the penultimate flight, the winner had already flown; leaving Rewired seventeen lengths in his wake at the winning post. Rather awkward over the first three flights, Rewired hurdled better as the race progressed and though well beaten by the impressive winner, he still finished twelve and thirty lengths clear of the next two. Rewired is another recruit with a likeable profile who showed plenty of scope on his hurdling debut and represents an in-form stable. The bare form of his Kempton debut leaves him with a little to find and his propensity on the flat to follow a good outing with a modest one is a concern, but a strong showing in this contest can not be dismissed.

tl;dr
Cottingham – Three times a winner on the flat in France, the latest being a Clairefontaine claimer. Landed the odds when making a winning British/Hurdling debut at Musselburgh in November and two subsequent defeats at that venue are better than they appear at face value. Form in the book sets the standard and ground and likely pace could play to his strengths.

Genuflex – Fairly useful on flat and confirmed hurdling debut promise with wide margin win at Sedgefield. Ran to a new career best when second in Wensleydale Hurdle but ran no sort of race in Finale over Christmas. Will appreciate drop in class but is most exposed and may prefer quicker ground.

Kotmask – Regally bred insofar as French jumpers are concerned and debut at Dieppe for Gabriel Leenders was not without promise. Emphatic winner at Fontwell on sole start for new trainer and form is probably strongest of those behind Collingham. Conditions should suit, yard in-form and improvement can be expected.

Lifetime Legend – Eleven race maiden on flat but some reasonable form for Andrew Oliver. Patchy pedigree but well supported when second on jumps introduction at Wetherby. Bare form looks reasonable but sectionals were very poor and form has since been let down by winner. Entitled to improve but most to find.

Parliament Hill – Lightly raced maiden in Ireland but mark of 69 probably underestimates his ability. Nice pedigree for the division and well supported for hurdling debut at Leicester in November. Patently inexperience but still a very ready winner and though bare form nothing special, probably has most scope for improvement in this line-up.

Rewired – Dual winner on flat and brings highest rating from that sphere. Appropriately bred and joins good yard for juveniles. Put in his place but clear of rest on hurdles bow at Kempton. Plenty of scope and yard in form but could be inconsistent on flat.

Strong prospects
1. Collingham
Reasonable prospects
2. Kotmask
3. Parliament Hill
4. Rewired
Feasible prospects
5. Genuflex
Moderate prospects
6. Lifetime Legend

[Kotkijet]

Hopefully, the amusing bit in the introduction about the "Chatteris Fen" who lived in my imagination was enough to offset the frustration of watching the underestimated Collingham get gubbed in the real Chatteris Fen by the biggest danger by a head. If not, let's see if the Kempton preview is any better...

Kempton – 15th January – Preview
The first juvenile hurdle to appear on the Lanzarote Hurdle card came in 2002. Curiously, the fourth placed finisher from the first three editions emerged as the most accomplished graduate. Rigmarole would win a Bula and a Kingwell, Spectroscope won the Triumph and placed at Aintree and Punchestown while Cherub finished fourth in the Triumph before winning at Punchestown. Since then, the beaten horses have done no better than being also-rans at the Festival although five winners did return to place in the Adonis the following month (L’Unique would also win the Anniversary while Sadler’s Risk finished third at Liverpool), and Redicean landed the double in 2018. This years edition probably won’t be the worst running of the race; that honour goes to the 2016 renewal where the only subsequent wins came in handicaps off 99 and 80. Nevertheless, while good yards are represented and the only flat maiden was rated 80 at one point, the overall profile of the contest is not particularly substantial given that all of the runners have questions to answer. Though a flat, and fair, right-handed circuit, Kempton’s winning DIs of 1.04 median, 1.25 mean are lower than average. However, while it can get testing, these figures would likely be more indicative of the quality of runner than it being a particularly demanding circuit; especially as the figures for this particular contest are 1.15 median, 1.35 mean. Both the clear round and completion rates of 96.97% and 89.10% are kinder than average. Kempton is also a fair course for introducing a juvenile, ranking seventh in the country for comparative strike rate, and second for comparative clear rounds. Furthermore, Kempton also ranks highly for the success of odds-on favourites as well as having low average starting prices, indicating that outcomes at the venue are generally rational. Just the five are set to face the starter and though a couple have made the running in the past, they did so under sufferance. As such, unless something takes the initiative, a steady tempo would not be unexpected. The latest going description was soft, good to soft in places, with little to no rain forecast before post time.

Cuban Cigar bg Richard Hannon f25-2-7 (68) 78 j1-0-0 (-) 85 79
Havana Gold (Green Desert){16-b}(1.15) 3/1 Poirot PU Wensleydale Juvenile Hurdle (L), Wetherby 2005
Richard Hannon Snr saddled Right Win, Gran Alba and Lift And Load to win graded races over hurdles, but his last six juvenile hurdlers failed to win anything and the family tradition has been revived by junior with Cuban Cigar. A veteran of twenty-four flat outings prior to his hurdling debut at Leicester, Cuban Cigar was a largely consistent mid sixties/mid seventies performer and picked up a couple of races on the all-weather. Breaking his duck on his eleventh outing in a seven furlong Kempton handicap off 66 at the end of March, he doubled his tally nine races and twenty-one weeks later at Wolverhampton over an extended nine furlongs off a pound higher. His flat career showed him to be patently tough, consistent and mostly honest, with stamina limitations and a preference for flat, all-weather tracks. Cuban Cigar’s pedigree does not lend itself to a hurdling career as sire Havana Gold’s sole winning juvenile from thirteen did so in a good ground Kempton handicap off bottom weight, and the damline is devoid of jumps ability until Model Man (5/2), Far Pavilions (5/3), American Trilogy (5/4) and Melodic Rendezvous (5/4) stem from the fifth dam. He went as low as 6/1 on the morning of his Leicester bow at the end of November, but drifted out to 20/1 at the off. Held up towards the rear, his jumping lacked fluency as he was big and skewed over most of his hurdles. He did make some headway on the turn for home and jumped three out within a couple of lengths of the lead. However, he was soon weakening and though less imaginative, his jumps were tired ones as he faded to finish a thirty length fifth of nine. He was back on the flat a fortnight later when fourth of six at Wolverhampton. Cuban Cigar’s flat form is acceptable and this race could be limit of his stamina in terms of pace and distance. However, while it is curious that connections are persisting with this hurdling adventure, there is little in Leicester outing or his overall profile to suggest that he will pose a serious threat in this sphere on this surface in this company.

Dawn Tapper bg Joe Ponting f12-1-0 (51) 63
Dawn Approach (Shamardal){23}(1.17) 1/1 Dawn Hoofer 3rd 3-Y-O Hurdle, Punchestown 2018
Joe Ponting, who trained Dollydo to win a point-to-point at Tiverton when he was still at school, is one winner from one in his rookie season of training juveniles, courtesy of Gavin wining a handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter in November. His second juvenile hurdler is set to be Dawn Tapper, who came from a Jim Bolger whose former inmates have a winner to runner rate of 27.16% in the sphere. That rate does drop to 20.83% for trainers who are not Nigel Hawke and his least expensive winning juvenile hurdler sold at auction was Drumshambo for 8,000 guineas in 2009. Dawn Tapper fetched just 4,500 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, although his 53 rating was still higher than other ex-Bolger winners in Punch Bag (48) and peat Moss (50). Furthermore, Dawn Tapper also managed to win a race on the flat in the form of a seventeen runner, nine furlong Leopardstown handicap on soft ground, off a mark of 54. He ran to a similar level on his next two outings when beaten at Dundalk and Roscommon, but these performances during August were the standouts in his eleven race tenure, exceeding five prior and four subsequent efforts by upwards of a stone. Since joining Joe Ponting, Dawn Tapper had a spin around Wolverhampton a fortnight ago and while he beat only two of his eight rivals home, was beaten less than four lengths. Sire Dawn Approach has yet to sire a winning juvenile from twelve, Dawn Tapper’s full-sister Dawn Hoofer was a reasonable maiden in the sphere and the third dam produced fairly useful jumps winners New Millennium and Diamondgeezer Luke. There are bits and pieces of Dawn Tapper’s profile that are quite likeable, but the patches and class deficit give little cause for optimism first time out.

Dirham Emirati bg Gary Moore f5-1-1 (78) 81
Vadamos (Rip Van Winkle){23}(0.30) 2/1 Point of Principle 2nd Silver Trophy Handicap Hurdle (G3,135), Chepstow 2018
Both the highest rated and most expensive flat recruit in this line-up, Dirham Emirati commanded 62,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale in order to bring a mark of 78 to the sphere. Starting his career with David Simcock in a Kempton novice stakes last February, he shaped with promise when finishing midfield; learning enough to get off the mark at the second time of asking at Newcastle a month later. Stepping up to a mile and a half, Dirham Emirati travelled comfortably behind the leader and after taking the lead at the distance, was pushed out for a comfortable two length victory. His cause was helped by the favourite disappointing, but the subsequent form allows for a rating in the mid to high seventies. Given a ten week break, he returned with a reasonable third at Thirsk on soft ground before being comfortably and predictably outclassed in the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot. Following another break of two months, and a switch to the yard of Kevin Philippart De Foy, Dirham Emirati folded inside the final furlong to finish last of four in a fourteen-furlong Chelmsford handicap. Though beaten eight lengths, it was not a disgraceful effort as he was conceding weight all round and the front pair each won next time out. Though purchased by Philip Middleton to go hurdling, Dirham Emirati was switched to Gary Moore’s yard after being withdrawn from the Goffs December Horses-in-Training sale. Gary Moore’s strong record in the division is news to few and his winner to runner rate with flat recruits is a healthy 31.43%. There is also a fair deal to like about the pedigree. Vadamos is having his first crop of juveniles and while only one of his twelve British/Irish horses have won to date, Calvados and Big Boy Bobby have posted respectable efforts and his French crop of three-year-olds count two winners from four. The distaff side has a shade of purple about it with Cerulean Sky, Honolulu, Moonstone, Orchestra and US Army Ranger all closely related. Furthermore, granddam L’Ancresse, an Oaks and Breeders Cup runner-up herself, has produced winning hurdlers in the useful Point of Principle and former Cisswood Stables resident Light Well. Dirham Emirati’s form, pedigree, stamina and connections make him a compelling recruit and he ought to be treated with the upmost respect here. Notwithstanding, though potentially a statistical anomaly, the fact that Gary Moore has saddled only one winning juvenile from forty-nine is somewhat troubling.

Glide Down bg Alan King f6-0-3 (72) 78 j1-0-1 (-) 94 101
Point Of Entry (Silver Hawk){9-f}(1.44) 2/2 Tap Tap Boom 4th Prix Pierre de Lassus (G3,4yH), Auteuil 2018
In contrast to Gary Moore, Alan King has a fantastic record with his juveniles around Kempton. Since 2004/05, sixty-eight runs have resulted in twenty-one wins, and his record in this particular contest is even stronger with four of his eleven runners winning and another three reaching the frame. However, while those winners were all at least fairly useful (Pouvoir, Fidux, L’Unique and Redicean) this season’s representative is probably a class below that standard. The sole flat maiden in this contest, Glide Down raced six times in that sphere and his official rating of 72 does put him in the mix. Two runner-up placings at Salisbury and Chelmsford sandwiched a fourteen length second behind Derby winner Adayar at Nottingham. Gelded over the winter, he returned with a close third of five at Lingfield in March before finishing last of four and sixth of eight in handicaps at Lingfield and Newbury. There were excuses on each occasion, but his mark dropping to 72 still seemed a fair reflection of his overall abilities on the level. Glide Down was then given twenty-five weeks to prepare for his hurdling career. Being an American male, he does not have the most obvious sirelines as Point Of Entry’s other offspring have achieved little over hurdles, and the Dynaformer line is rather spurious; although he is the grandsire of Adagio. The distaff side is also predominantly set across the Atlantic, but a few of Glide Down’s cousins have done quite well over hurdles including Tap Tap Boom, Thumbs Up (the other one), Turf Trivia and New York Turf Writers Cup Hurdle winner Dark Equation. Glide Down’s hurdling debut came at Market Rasen in early December. Starting at 7/2 in what was a rather tepid contest, Glide Down raced freely while tracking the leaders. He was novicey over the first couple, but jumped better until getting close to the last in the back. Making his challenge on entering the straight, he completely misjudged the penultimate flight and stumbled on landing. Though back in the mix at the last, an awkward landing gave the initiative to Tease And Seize who extended his superiority to just over four lengths at the line. The winner was not disgraced in finishing midfield in the Finale Hurdle, and the third would go one better in a modest contest at Wetherby last week. Nevertheless, the performance could not be rated much higher than 100 which is not the most unassailable target for his rivals. Furthermore, while his hurdling experience will count for something, the yard has rather gone into hibernation as of late and recent comments on Glide Down suggest that his running here is more in the spirit of exploration than annexation.

Silver Shade grg Milton Harris f9-2-2 (73) 80
Kendargent (Alzao){4-b}(0.57) 2/1 Teenage Idol 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (124), Ayr 2012
Milton Harris has enjoyed an outstanding season to date in the division and much of this is down to some astute buying at Tattersalls at the July and Autumn sales. Aliomaana, Knight Salute, Genuflex and Galah have all won this term having gone around the Newmarket ring, with no price tag exceeding 21,000 guineas. Silver Shade cost 18,000 at the Autumn Sale, leaving Mark Johnston with two wins and a mark of 73 to his name. Finishing down the field during three outings at two, Silver Shade returned from his winter break sans testicles. The shedding of two stones reaped immediate results as he finished second over a mile and a half in a Lingfield handicap off 58 before landing a double at Newcastle and Southwell in March and April. Both contests were held over the same trip with neither being especially competitive. Silver Shade had only three rivals to defeat at Newcastle and while he was a most convincing winner, the subsequent form has not worked out. At Southwell, had only the one opponent who he beat in a canter to justify 30/100 favouritism. There is more substance to his Sandown second next time out where he raced over a heavy fourteen furlongs off 73. Although he was no match for Zinc White, he still had enough to fend off the challenge of Pied Piper for second; the latter, who was giving away thirteen pounds, is now prominent in the Triumph betting. Lacking the pace for a steadily run class 2 on good to firm at Doncaster, Silver Shade was last seen pulling up immediately after the start of a Musselburgh handicap in late June. No explanation was given for his pulling up, nor were any caveats given in his catalogue page where he was presumably sound enough to get past the Tattersalls vets. Since 2004/05, thoroughbred family 4-b has had no winning juveniles from six, although this does not appear to be an endemic issue as Three Kingdoms was a useful sort who won three times at four while K?nig Ulrich, a distant relative at 6/4, won the Prix Maurice Gillois (the Arkle chase for four-year-olds) in 1989. Closer on the damline are the good German hurdler K?nigstreuer at 4/1 while uncle Teenage Idol was a fairly useful winner. Kendargent is the winningmost sire of juvenile hurdlers represented in this field with two from his eleven, while his record in France is a fairly solid nine winners from forty-eight. Silver Shade’s mysterious pulling up last time does linger in the mind, but assuming good health, he probably has the least questions to answer in this field. His flat form is amongst the best, his pedigree is very feasible and the yard, which leads the country for juvenile debutants with clear rounds of jumping, is in healthy form without any misgivings over the track. Furthermore, neither stamina nor conditions present any concerns and with the possible opportunity for an easy lead, Silver Shade may prove difficult to catch at this level.

tl;dr
Cuban Cigar – Has ran twenty-five times on the flat and is hardy, consistent and honest enough in that sphere. Stamina not assured however and did not look a natural on hurdles bow.

Dawn Tapper – Inexpensive Jim Bolger dispersal but feasibly bred and should stay trip. Despite winning in Ireland, does have a class deficit to overcome and unlikely to be good enough first time.

Dirham Emirati – Highest rated and most expensive of these on the flat. Solid enough pedigree and with yard that does very well in sphere; although not so much at Kempton

Glide Down – Fair maiden on flat and second on hurdling debut at Market Rasen sets a fair but not unassailable standard. Stable has fine record in this race but this year’s representative looks a class below and not much enthusiasm drawn from trainer’s words or recent form.

Silver Shade – Dual winner on flat for Mark Johnston and best form is threatening in context of this race. Has to account for mysterious pulling up when last seen. Nevertheless, with highly capable yard, has perfectly acceptable pedigree, with conditions and possible race composition likely to suit.

Strong prospects
1. Silver Shade
Reasonable prospects
2. Dirham Emirati
Feasible prospects
3. Glide Down
Moderate/Negligible prospects
4. Dawn Tapper
5. Cuban Cigar

[Benjy23]

Top read and picked out another winner there pal. Thought you had yesterday as well!

[parimutuel]

Excellent write up again Kotkijet

[Grand Canyon]

Brilliant yet again Kotkijet, Really enjoy watching your analysis play out.

[Kotkijet]

Most appreciated lads

Even though I am not a tipster and INSIST that my content is strictly informative and never advisory, I am glad at least that those ignoring the advice have been doing quite well

The main reason I am very shy about the tipster label is because I do not bet on these races. Thus, if I am not willing to risk money on my content, it would be quite impudent of me to suggest that others should have a go!

Notwithstanding, the work has been very rewarding and, though I would be ashamed to admit it, the results have been a delightful bonus. Though there has been no material gain on my part, these figures indicate that I probably have a fair idea of what I am talking about when it comes to juvenile hurdlers. Particularly as I am unable to be remotely selective or make any account for "value". Indeed, such a run can not be sustainable so I may as well post this while I can enjoy doing so...



notes
1) Keepyourdreamsbig was initially the second choice, but an update was posted on race day where he was placed into the top slot
2) I have gone back to when I had something resembling secure accommodation which was around the start of August.

[Middle_Of_March]

Most appreciated lads

Even though I am not a tipster and INSIST that my content is strictly informative and never advisory, I am glad at least that those ignoring the advice have been doing quite well

The main reason I am very shy about the tipster label is because I do not bet on these races. Thus, if I am not willing to risk money on my content, it would be quite impudent of me to suggest that others should have a go!

Notwithstanding, the work has been very rewarding and, though I would be ashamed to admit it, the results have been a delightful bonus. Though there has been no material gain on my part, these figures indicate that I probably have a fair idea of what I am talking about when it comes to juvenile hurdlers. Particularly as I am unable to be remotely selective or make any account for "value". Indeed, such a run can not be sustainable so I may as well post this while I can enjoy doing so...



notes
1) Keepyourdreamsbig was initially the second choice, but an update was posted on race day where he was placed into the top slot
2) I have gone back to when I had something resembling secure accommodation which was around the start of August.

Just wanted to add my appreciation for all your hard work Kotkijet. I’ve genuinely never seen analysis this good on a specific division anywhere on fatjockey or in the real world. Thankyou.

[Kotkijet]

Just wanted to add my appreciation for all your hard work Kotkijet. I’ve genuinely never seen analysis this good on a specific division anywhere on fatjockey or in the real world. Thankyou.

Many thanks MoM. I am currently working on the Ascot preview, but yesterday, I did do a bit of a catch up on my Irish form going up to the new year, as per the curiosity of (and as a token of my appreciation for your appreciation)

I asked a similar question a week or so back Eggs and Kotkijet said there were still several potential nice ones that hadn't been out yet so he was holding off doing a kind of pre Triumph preview, will be fascinating reading when it's up though....

I know he's very keen on Knights Salute so it'll be interesting how he rates him in comparison to the Irish juveniles.

These thoughts are very much brief, arbitrary, and have not been subject to the same level of rigour usually applied to general profiles or previews. Nevertheless...

Ireland;-
Fil Dor has the best form in the book, but I am not sure how much further he is going to improve. He obviously jumps as well as you would like from a high class juvenile, but he strikes me more a chasing type than a fast and ready-made hurdler. Furthermore, given how slow his Leopardstown effort was in the early stages, one would have liked to have seen Fil Dor complete the final couple of furlongs in a quicker time. Granted he was not asked for his all, and Sir Gerhard is a very good prospect, but the latter didn't even come off the bridle. I am probably nit-picking, and I do not find Fil Dor's place at the head of the Triumph market to be disagreeable. However, by the same token, I do not think he is the good thing that the prices suggest.

Vauban was given a very strong write-up in an earlier piece and his hurdling debut at Punchestown has only strengthened my enthusiasm. Learned as he jumped and lost the race only due to the unfortunate manner in which the paths were chosen in the straight. Form and finishing time absolutely hold up and he has the scope to leave this performance a long way behind. Very much my idea of Ireland's biggest threat.

However, I do not think that the Irish are a league above the home contingent at this stage. Porticello's win at Chepstow is the strongest individual piece of form, but Knight Salute had his measure at Doncaster and while the former perhaps has more scope for improvement, Knight Salute has course form, versatility for pace and ground conditions, and is endowed with fantastic resolve.

Iceo looked good at Kempton but the impression is that his rivals got stuck in the mud. Will need another outing to get a better idea of his potential. Lunar Power is held by Fil Dor, Pied Piper has less scope than Vauban, and nothing else looks like a Triumph winner.

Again, all very arbitrary and nothing I will hold myself to until I have done a comprehensive assessment.

[Istabraq]

Many thanks MoM. I am currently working on the Ascot preview, but yesterday, I did do a bit of a catch up on my Irish form going up to the new year, as per the curiosity of





These thoughts are very much brief, arbitrary, and have not been subject to the same level of rigour usually applied to general profiles or previews. Nevertheless...

Ireland;-
Fil Dor has the best form in the book, but I am not sure how much further he is going to improve. He obviously jumps as well as you would like from a high class juvenile, but he strikes me more a chasing type than a fast and ready-made hurdler. Furthermore, given how slow his Leopardstown effort was in the early stages, one would have liked to have seen Fil Dor complete the final couple of furlongs in a quicker time. Granted he was not asked for his all, and Sir Gerhard is a very good prospect, but the former didn't even come off the bridle. I am probably nit-picking, and I do not find Fil Dor's place at the head of the Triumph market to be disagreeable. However, by the same token, I do not think he is the good thing that the prices suggest.

Vauban was given a very strong write-up in an earlier piece and his hurdling debut at Punchestown has only strengthened my enthusiasm. Learned as he jumped and lost the race only due to the unfortunate manner in which the paths were chosen in the straight. Form and finishing time absolutely hold up and he has the scope to leave this performance a long way behind. Very much my idea of Ireland's biggest threat.

However, I do not think that the Irish are a league about the home contingent at this stage. Porticello's win at Chepstow is the strongest individual piece of form, but Knight Salute had his measure at Doncaster and while the former perhaps has more scope for improvement, Knight Salute has course form, versatility for pace and ground conditions, and is endowed with fantastic resolve.

Iceo looked good at Kempton but the impression is that his rivals got stuck in the mud. Will need another outing to get a better idea of his potential. Lunar Power is held by Fil Dor, Pied Piper has less scope than Vauban, and nothing else looks like a Triumph winner.

Again, all very arbitrary and nothing I will hold myself to until I have done a comprehensive assessment.

Much appreciated K...

[Sprinter Sacre]

Kotkijet You think Vauban is a better prospect for the Triumph than Icare Allen?

[Kotkijet]

I have him about half a stone ahead on bare form. That said, they each have considerable strengths in their profiles and judging by the history of what happens when Mullins introduces one over Christmas, there is no real distinction insofar as which race gets the better entries... Vauban has the lead over Icare Allen, but it is not insurmountable.

[Sprinter Sacre]

I have him about half a stone ahead on bare form. That said, they each have considerable strengths in their profiles and judging by the history of what happens when Mullins introduces one over Christmas, there is no real distinction insofar as which race gets the better entries... Vauban has the lead over Icare Allen, but it is not insurmountable.

Amazing. Thanks for showing the spreadsheet image too.

[Geegees]

Any thoughts on the Irish hill race tomorrow? I know they was very sweet on him before his debut

[Kotkijet]

Any thoughts on the Irish hill race tomorrow? I know they was very sweet on him before his debut

I got you covered

***NOTICE***
During the time I was writing this essay, Graystone got bored and decided to do something else instead. The essay has been written and I will leave it as is for posterity. However, Hayedo, who initially had "feasible prospects", has been bumped up to top "reasonable prospect" on account of his likely uncontested lead.

Enjoy

Ascot – 22nd January – Preview
The Aurelius Hurdle, named after the St Leger winner who would go on to win a steeplechase at Ascot’s newly established National Hunt circuit, was first held in 1968 when Banquo would reach the frame in both this and the Triumph. Paddy’s Return won both races during the nineties, but the contest was discontinued, with something of a bang, in 2003 as it was taken by Tamarinbleu; who would win the Clarance House Chase four seasons later. Incidentally, it was on the 2008 card that this particular juvenile contest was established. One of just two juveniles held at Ascot, the other being the handicap towards the end of the season, it has since produced a Triumph winner in Zaynar, an almost Triumph winner in Goshen, Triumph placed Top Notch and Grandouet, along with future Ascot Chase winner Balder Succes. Its most notable winner came in the first renewal won by Binocular, who was the latest hurdling debutant to land the race before Tritonic made a strong impression last season. This year’s renewal contains a nicely bred Dan Skelton newcomer with a good flat rating, although the experienced participants do set a good standard; headed by four winning hurdlers with respectable form. A galloping, right-handed track with decent drainage and a steady climb from Swinley Bottom, Ascot has below average winning DIs of 1.14 median, 1.33 mean. However, though stamina is far from optional at Ascot, the figures are more indicative of the class of runner the course attracts. There is little difference between the winning DIs and those of beaten horses, and the completion rate of 93.07% is the second highest in Britain behind Haydock. The clear round rate of 98.54% is the third highest in the country, and that all ten odds-on favourites have obliged since 2004/05 further emphasises how fair Ascot is for juvenile hurdlers. Two of the previous winners in the line-up did so having forced the pace to a solid tempo looks likely. The going is currently described as soft, good to soft in places, and rainfall is not anticipated before post time.

Graystone rgg Lucy Wadham f11-3-3 (75) 80 j4-1-2 (121) 117 125
Dark Angel (Distorted Humor){8-k}(3.00) No jumps relatives
Costing 50,000 guineas at the Craven Breeze-up at two-years-old, Graystone is a son of Dark Angel out of a half-sister to a Grade 1 winning American filly. Though precociously bred, Graystone’s first piece of flat form came when winning on his first outing at three in a seven-furlong Yarmouth handicap off 66. From there, he would mostly perform consistently and maintain steady improvement; reaching a new level when stepped up to ten furlongs. Failing by a head to win a soft ground Beverley handicap on his penultimate flat outing, he made amends on his final start in that sphere when winning his third race at Kempton off 71. Graystone had a tendency to race freely on the flat and while Dark Angel gets winning juveniles. his record is only fair. Furthermore, given the American pedigree, there are no jumpers on the damline until one goes back eleven dams and forward seven to find Beau Trempoli. Nevertheless, Lucy Wadham does very well with her juvenile hurdlers (thirteen winners from twenty-seven prior to Graystone) and with a BHA mark in the eighty-second percentile of flat rated recruits, Graystone went off the 5/1 second favourite for his hurdles bow in a useful looking Warwick contest in early November. Setting off in a prominent position, he skewed over the first and became lit up after getting close to the second. Errors persisted in his round, but while the winner had flown, he got the better of the third by three lengths. The form, which looked reasonable at the time, has since been given some major boosts. In This World has not been out since but his victim in an AQPS bumper, Fil Dor, has emerged as favourite for the Triumph after some emphatic performances. Meanwhile, third placed Interne de Sivola won at Cheltenham ahead of two subsequent winners. With this in mind, Graystone’s second appearance over hurdles, coming in an all aged maiden at Huntingdon, can only be regarded as disappointing; as per his starting price of 1/2. Held up in the rear of midfield, he was already shaken up six furlongs from home and while he made some headway into contention towards the end of the back, he had no extra to give and would merely plug on into third on the run-in. His jumping also left plenty to be desired and the form has been besmirched by the clear winner and the fourth. Nevertheless, a return to Warwick brought about a return to winning ways as Graystone, sent off an unsteady 11/4 second favourite, was able to register his first win over hurdles. Reverting to a front-running role while taking a keen grip, Graystone was always travelling well within himself and had all but one of his rivals toiling on entering the straight. He was still given to making careless mistakes but apart from clambering over the last, where he had the race in safe keeping, there was nothing alarming about his aptitude and he ran out a comfortable seven length winner. He set a clear standard on hurdles form on his most recent outing at Taunton towards the end of last month, but was deposed as favourite by the Paul Nicholls newcomer, Irish Hill. Still racing freely, Graystone went into a clear lead, posting his best round of jumping in the process. His rivals were closing on him as they entered the straight, but to the eye, they did not appear to be doing so at a sufficient rate to reign in the leader and Graystone went as low as 1.03 in-running. However, having hurdled well to the penultimate flight, it was here that he made his first serious error; getting in very close without lifting his legs. His second error coming at the last where he skewed in the air, landed steeply before stumbling to the ground. The consensus is that he would most likely have won the race, although along with the sharp decline in his jumping, it is also worth noting that the final furlong was completed over two seconds slower than the previous. Even accounting for the fact that the final furlong featured no hurdles, the comparative times set by the all-the-way winner in the fillies’ race later on the card suggested more equilibrium could have been expected. Graystone does set the standard on bare form, is racing on fair terms, represents an in-form yard and is entitled to the according respect. However, despite the pull in weights with Irish Hill, he is not certain to confirm any perceived superiority and the likely pace angle will probably work against him here.

Hayedo bg Gary Moore f4-0-3 (-) 84 j3-1-1 (115) 114 118
Sea The Moon (Sholokhov){7-c}(0.65) 3/1 Hill Fairy 1st Lombardstown Mares Novice Chase (L), Cork 2008
https://www.pronoturf.es/ficha-cabal...60b8d619314a2e

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/hayedo

Starting his career in Spain before racing in France, the German bred Hayedo is set to have his fourth outing over British hurdles. After fetching €58,000 as a yearling, Hayedo twice ran for Patrik Olave at La Zarzuela, Madrid late in the season, placing second on each occasion. Hayedo’s third flat outing is much more easily quantified. Having his first run for Edouard Monfort, Hayedo reappeared in a quite valuable maiden contest at Longchamp over 2000m in May. Keen in the early stages, he pulled himself into the lead and settled better as a result. He would maintain his advantage to the distance and though outpaced by the winner, would keep on gamely to hold second. The form is of a reasonable standard with the length and a quarter winner rated 96.8, and the third rated 88. Hayedo failed to match this form on his sole subsequent outing which came over 2200m at Lyon the following month. Though running a similar kind of race, he did not settle quite so well and while he fought on bravely after being headed turning for home, he found himself swamped in the final strides, finishing just under two lengths behind in fourth. There was encouragement for Hayedo’s new vocation in the pedigree. Sea The Moon (Allmankind, Tritonic) has a winner runner rate of 28.57% and an improvement rate of 50%. Sholokhov is untried as a damsire but 30% of his own progeny win in the sphere and the third dam is the matriarch of winning jumpers Hill Fairy (3/1), Hey Little Boy (3/1) and North Hill (3/2). His first run over hurdles came at Fontwell in November where he was backed into 9/1 having opened twice that price in the ring. Initially held up, he moved into midfield during the first circuit and was tracking the leaders going out second time round. However, he began to lose touch nearing the end of the back and was ultimately beaten thirty-three lengths. His caused was not helped by some novicey jumping which grew more dramatic as the race progressed, closing his round by hopping through his hurdles. Hayedo reappeared at Sandown early last month and was once again subject to outside support, trimmed from 16/1 to 10/1 at the off. He was sent into the lead and though he was still prone to hopping through the top of his flights at times, it was a much better round overall. He ceded the lead approaching the penultimate flight and had little left after the last, losing a remote second close to the line. Four weeks later, Hayedo returned in a maiden hurdle at Hereford; drifting from 4/1 to 8/1 during the day, before returning to 9/2 in the ring. Taking a keen hold, Hayedo went straight to the front while demonstrating good improvement in his jumping. He was neat when ridden into the first, but though rather tight at the second, was fluent from thereon. His rivals were all in trouble at the cross section and by the time he entered the straight, was half-a-dozen lengths clear. He was steady before hopping through the top of the last, but the runner-up made an even worse blunder which allowed Hayedo to storm to a thirteen length success. His task was made easier by the favourite pulling too hard, but the form is close to his flat best and there may be even further to come. Hayedo is entitled to run in a race of this nature under a penalty and is the representative of an in-form Gary Moore yard whose last three runs in this race resulted in a win (Goshen) and two placings (Beat The Judge and Casa Loupi). However, while his form is only marginally the weakest of the previous winners, the prospect of another uncontested lead is not assured.

Irish Hill grg Paul Nicholls f4-2-1 (38.0/83.6) 80 j1-1-0 (-) 106 119
Kingston Hill (Monsun){14-a}(0.47) 2/1 Idjen 1st 3800m Conditions Hurdle, Wissembourg 2008

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/irish-hill

The sadly departed Jeremy and Mastercraftsman, each from the Danehill Dancer line, have been two of the most successful sires of juveniles in recent years despite their Dosage Indexes being 1.82. Two other sons, Fast Company and Choisir, have improvement rates of 65% and 73% despite having DIs of 2.06 and 2.60 respectively. Indeed, the former is already developing a nice record as a grandsire of juveniles with Olympic Glory and Starspangledbanner building positive records for themselves. Kingston Hill, a St Leger winning son of Mastercraftsman out of a half-sister to the useful hurdler Lord Jim, has a DI of just 0.90 and is a smidge taller than leading juvenile sire Authorized. Naturally, Kingston Hill makes for a most intriguing addition to the ranks of jumps stallions which explains why he was transferred from Coolmore to the operation’s National Hunt base at Castle Hyde Stud. His first crop did not achieve a great deal due to a lack of firepower. However, recent Paul Nicholls recruit Irish Hill is a couple of stones superior to the other Kingston Hills seen in the division thus far. Starting his career with Peter Schiergen, whose exports to the juvenile division have a winner to runner rate of 20.83%, not including the useful maidens Landin and the Paul Nicholls trained Ecco, and an improvement rate of 58.33%. Though previously based in Germany, Irish Hill has raced exclusively in France and made his debut at La Crouse Laroche over 2,500m when third to subsequent Groupe III runner-up Tides Of War in April. He got off the mark later that month when winning a 2400m maiden at Lyon on good to soft ground by three quarters of a length. Irish Hill raced lazily when well beaten at Nantes in June, but regained the winning thread towards the end of July on his final appearance in France at Longchamp. Stepping up to 2,800m, he travelled on the good ground with much more vibrancy while tracking the leader, and though his rival was a tough nut to crack, Irish Hill was able to get his head in front inside the final half-furlong before scoring by a length and a quarter. The form has a solid look to it with four last time out winners in behind, the runner-up was a 72.6 rated filly in receipt of four and a half kilos, and the third won a quinte handicap next time out. Paul Nicholls already has a few French recruits with hurdling form out this season including winners Magistrato and Iceo. Nevertheless, his continental flat imports also have a strong record with 57.89% of them winning as juveniles including the likes of Zarkandar, Pierrot Lunaire and Zubayr. The damline, being of a predominantly Teutonic nature, does not have much in the way of famous hurdlers but there are still several who have won in the sphere including Idjen (2/1), Imago (3/1), Interpret (3/2) and Iligan (4/1). Subject of a flattering report from Tom Malone, Irish Hill has ample class and stamina to make an impact in the sphere. Irish Hill’s British/jumps debut came just over three weeks ago at Taunton. It was a decent looking contest for the venue, but that did not prevent Irish Hill from being pushed into even money favouritism. He settled nicely enough while tracking the leader, although he did not make the best initial impression with his jumping as he was steady over the first two, went right at the third and was slow at the fourth. Nevertheless, though still given to brushing a couple while taking half a stride to get away from his flights, his hurdling did improve as the race progressed and was heading the pursuit of the leader turning for home. The deficit was not closing all too quickly, and he traded at 30 in-running before being left in the lead at the last. However, the leader’s capitulation and the closing sectionals make an argument for the race not being as cut and dry as it appeared. After side-stepping a tumbling Bryony Frost, Irish Hill stayed on to fend off the challenge of the closing Girandole, putting two lengths between himself and the runner-up, with the pair a further twenty lengths clear of the remainder. Paul Nicholls had a decent strike rate of 20% with continental flat recruits before Taunton, and that rate increases to 48% for their second outings. Irish Hill began his jumps career on a very solid platform and having shaped very much like an improver with pace and conditions looking likely to suit, he comes into this contest with a substantial profile.

[Kotkijet]

Twilight Twist bg Alan King f6-1-1 (70) 74 j3-1-1 (123) 111 120
Twilight Son (Pour Moi){14-c}(0.57) 3/1 Krosno 1st 4YO Maiden Hurdle, Naas 1998
Alan King is one of the most dominant trainers of juvenile hurdles in the game and his last four runners in this particular contest – Balder Succes, Gibralfaro, Nayati and Tritonic – were all winners. He is set to saddle two in this year’s renewal in Twilight Twist and Restitution. Costing 5,000 guineas at last year’s Tattersalls Guineas Breeze-up, Twilight Twist earned his sole flat victory when staying on well under pressure to narrowly land an ordinary Wolverhampton novice auction stakes in November 2020. He would fail to double his tally in four outings at three and reached the frame just the once when third off 70 in a twelve furlong handicap off back at Wolverhampton in mid-July. First season jumps sire, Twilight Son, is a reasonable height, but is not otherwise a particularly compelling prospect for the sphere; being a precocious, speedy sort. Nevertheless, some of this speed is mitigated by damsire Pour Moi, and those trained for both codes by Alan King have a strong winner to runner rate of 47.83%; to which Twilight twist contributed when making a winning hurdles bow at Huntingdon on Halloween. Warm in the market and starting the 9/4 second favourite, Twilight Twist was keen early while being restrained in mid-divsion. He got in close to the first, and steadied when clipping the penultimate flight, but posted a mostly fluent round first time. Making headway on the home turn, he entered the straight disputing the lead and though his rival was persistent, he was able to pull out a decisive length with the pair well clear. He returned four weeks later for a warm introductory hurdle at Newcastle where he was a solid 11/8 second favourite. Tracking the leaders in a steadily run, six-strong affair, he was untidy at the first and became lit up after hitting the second. Twilight Twist had settled better towards the end of the back and was in a decent jumping rhythm. Smoothly moving to the lead either side of three out, he looked to be travelling with purpose at the distance. However, he pecked after hitting the top of the penultimate flight and was headed shortly afterwards. Any remaining hope and momentum was lost when he flattened the last, before finishing nearly five lengths behind his market rival. Twilight Twist was out again a fortnight later, taking in a class two at Cheltenham. Though clashing with the Summit at Doncaster, it was still a good quality affair for which he was less fancied than usual at 11/1. Keen again in the early stages, Twilight Twist sat in midfield and apart from missing the fifth (he had been hampered by a larger rival at the previous flight), put in a fluent round of hurdling. Though towards the rear on top of the hill, Twilight Twist was still in close enough order, but was again hampered by the same oafish rival and entered the straight detached in last place. His path was blocked on landing after the last, but he stayed on well to make up five places on the run-in to get within half a length of the third. Even without the trouble in running, the performance marked a new career best and the second and third each boosted the form when winning over the holidays. Initially penciled in for the Finesse Hurdle at Cheltenham next week, Twilight Twist has been rerouted to assist Restitution in his yard’s quest to maintain its strong record in this contest. There is a fair deal to like about Twilight Twist’s improvement with each outing, and the decent pace can help him to settle better. However, while Alan King’s charges are not running abysmally, he has gone thirty-seven runs without a jumps winner which is most unusual for a trainer of his calibre.

Doctor Parnassus bg Dan Skelton f10-0-5 (75) 83
Make Believe (Authorized){1-n}(0.45) 0.5 Metier 1st Tolworth Novices’ Hurdle (G1), Sandown 2021
The sole hurdling debutant in this field, Doctor Parnassus was formerly trained by David O’Meara; the supplier of four winning juveniles to the division from eleven including the useful Redicean and the promising Dr T J Eckleburg. Though he failed to win in ten attempts, Doctor Parnassus reached the frame on four occasions including when last seen in a twelve furlong, soft ground, Pontefract maiden in early October. The 7/2 third favourite of eight, he made the running at an even tempo and posted what was probably a career best in that sphere. He was able to see off the favourite’s challenge from the top of the straight, but was caught and passed close home by the smart hurdling mare Indefatigable. The resolve of Doctor Parnassus had previously been called into question, and though he ran to the line, his head carriage under pressure was still somewhat suspect. Notwithstanding, his stamina and class were arguably sufficient for his 66,000 guinea price tag at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale without even accounting for his compelling pedigree. Make Believe made a good first impression as a jumps sire last season with three winning juveniles from nine including Sage Advice and First Impression. Damsire Authorized is one of the strongest influence in the sphere and the distaff side is also creditable. From the same family as Teofilo (3/1), Doctor Parnassus is a half-brother to Tolworth winner Metier, out of a full-sister to the capable Constancio, with another winner in Deadly Approach coming from the third dam. In Dan Skelton, Doctor Parnassus joins a trainer with a good credentials in the sphere. His winner to runner rate is 37.65%, his improvement rate of 53.66% is the highest in the field, and his flat recruits are generally ready to go straight away with those rated 70 and above boasting a 34.78% first time strike rate. This is a tough introduction for a newcomer, but Doctor Parnassus has ticks in most of the right boxes and though he needs to fully confirm his tenacity under pressure, a decent first showing would not be unexpected.

Girandole bg Mark Gillard f3-0-1 (50) 49 j2-0-2 (105) 103 117
No Nay Never (Whipper){4-r}(1.67) 3/1 Honoured 3rd 2m?f Novices’ Hurdle, Bangor 2011
Beginning his flat career in July, Girandole was beaten no less than twenty-four lengths and started no shorter than 150/1 in three outings. By No Nay Never, whose sole winning juvenile came in a hot potato of a race, the closest hurdler on the damline with form is the novice placed Honoured at 3/1. Mark Gillard has a 12.5% winner to runner rate in the sphere, yet such was the desperate quality of the field, Girandole was not only able to start at 20/1 for his hurdling debut at Exeter, but also finish second. Held up in the rear off a slow pace, Girandole had just one behind turning for home but was able to travel strongly into a prominent position by the time they reached three out. He was never reaching the winner, who wandered alone in front, but managed to hold on to third from another outsider. Despite the low quality of the contest, Girandole’s performance marked a new career best effort and he took another giant leap forward at Taunton three weeks ago. Sent off at 25/1 having received some outside support, Girandole was held up in midfield and apart from getting tight at the fifth, posted a good round of jumping. With tired rivals falling by the wayside, he found himself in third position turning for home and after being left in second at the last, looked to make a strong challenge as he traded at 2.52 in-running. The winner, Irish Hill, was able to repel him but he still finished twenty lengths ahead of the rest. Strictly at the weights, he has a chance of reversing the form although Irish Hill was clearly the superior racehorse of the two. Notwithstanding, while he was flattered by the pace of the race, his finishing clear of the rest can not be discredited and although this contest looks beyond his scope, there is a race out there for this good and safe hurdler.

Restitution bg Alan King f4-1-3 (76) 80 j1-0-1 (-) 93 94
Frankel (Kendargent){4-i}(0.49) 2/2 Galasina 5th 3550m 3yo Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2021
The stablemate of Twilight Twist and the intended sole arrow for his trainer, Restitution joined Alan King for 50,000 guineas having previously been trained by John Gosden. The master of Clarehaven rarely leaves wriggle room in his former pupils, with their winner to runner rate being a moderate 14.85% and only 20.63% improving on their flat form. Two previous juveniles have made the journey from Newmarket to Barbury Castle, with Tiffin Top landing a Hereford maiden in March, and Sam Lord scoring at five but doing better back on the flat. Third on his debut at Newcastle in December 2020, Restitution made a winning return in a Yarmouth maiden, landing odds of 1/4 in workmanlike fashion. Gelded and given a five month break, during which time he was sold in the Tattersalls Autumn sale, Restitution finished twelve lengths behind a former stablemate at Kempton before placing third on his handicap debut at the same venue off 76. He had been squeezed out inside the final furlong, but was being edged out at the time and would only have finished closer in the same position. His stamina and attitude looked appropriate for a hurdling career, although his pedigree is more passable than exciting. Frankel has yet to excel with his juvenile hurdlers as he has done on the flat, with his figures no better than fair and few of his progeny holding their form between codes. The likes of Noble Request (5/2) and Flying Tiger (5/3) can be found in the echoes of the damline, but the closest jumps relative is a cousin who finished down the field at Fontainebleau. Nevertheless, his flat form and trainer were enough to see him start a solid 9/2 third favourite at Kempton last month. Running mid-division in a strung out field, Restitution made some headway from the far side and turned for home within a couple of lengths of the leader. However, he was left in the winner’s wake shortly on entering the straight and lost second place moments later before toiling home a twenty-nine length third. Slow at times, particularly in the closing stages when tired, his jumping was also marked by a propensity to go right did not help, even around Kempton. Restitution is entitled to improve for the experience, particularly as it came on the softest ground he had hitherto encountered, and the yard does have a fine record in the race. However, he still has the most to find of those with hurdles form and his being joined by a stablemate could be disconcerting given that the yard has been struggling for winners recently.

tl;dr
Graystone – Fairly useful on flat and confirmed hurdling debut promise with a win at Warwick. Looked poised to double tally when falling at last at Taunton but was probably tired at the time. Has the strongest form, yard in good nick and fairly weighted, but vulnerable even without the prospects of a contested lead.

Hayedo – Capable maiden in France on flat and improved with each run over hurdles. Off the mark last time in Hereford maiden when making all to win by thirteen lengths. In-form yard has good record in the race and not much to find on form, but would prefer an uncontested lead.

Irish Hill – Exciting recruit for top yard and well fancied to make winning debut at Taunton. Did not impress in early stages but learned as he went and though seemingly fortunate to be left in front at last, could arguably have closed on fallen rival. Considerable improvement anticipated based on both the way he shaped and his trainer’s record with this sort. Conditions and complexion likely to suit.

Twilight Twist – Inexpensive but reasonable winner on flat. Patchy pedigree but those trained for both codes by Alan King have good record and hurdles debut at Huntingdon was a winning one. Jumping errors did not help at Newcastle but still solid performance and Cheltenham outing much better than face value. Roped in to help maintain yard’s strong record in contest, but said yard is going through cold spell.

Doctor Parnassus – Maiden on flat with possibly suspect attitude, but stamina and ability not in question. Those formerly with David O’Meara usually posess scope and pedigree is very interesting. Yard has healthy figures in the sphere, including with this type first time out.

Girandole – Decidedly modest during short flat career and unlikely profile for hurdling. However, proved debut second at Exeter was no fluke by filling same position at Taunton last time. Possibly flattered by race’s complexion and likely to be outclassed here, but safe and honest nevertheless.

Restitution – Winning son of Frankel formerly with John Gosden. Neither factor is regularly sustained over hurdles and though with Alan King, was well beaten on hurdling bow at Kempton. Capable of being competitive at some point but needs to leave debut running far behind. Potential question of confidence as was initially the sole intended runner for this contest.

Strong prospects
1. Irish Hill
Reasonable prospects
2. Hayedo
3. Doctor Parnassus
4. Twilight Twist
Moderate prospects
5. Girandole
6. Restitution
Negligible prospects
.