Juvenile Hurdlers 2021/22

[Kotkijet]

NEWTON ABBOT 18th July
Preview review
No preview was written and as several of these contested an unreviewed race beforehand, it could not be speculated in hindsight as to how the preview may have looked.

Race review
Five of these met over course and distance sixteen days prior and only one runner was making her hurdles debut. The overall quality of hurdling was no better than moderate but while a few keen early, the field settled before too long. The pace set was a fair one but the winning time compared to the handicap taken by an 82 rated animal was not strong. Jumping the penultimate flight, the front five were separated by less than half-a-dozen lengths and the winner aside, the five who reopposed finished in a different order to their previous encounter. As such, the form is unlikely to prove especially strong or reliable.

Scrappy Jack did not show on his flat debut in early June and was beaten twenty lengths on his hurdling bow later that month. However, that was not a run without promise and he was able to get off the mark over this course and distance at the start of this month. That race appeared to fall apart for him and he opened at 12/1 in the ring, although he was half that price at flagfall. He had hurdled adequately on that occasion with his round blemished only by sporadic skewing and steadying and it was much the same here with a slow jump at the fourth briefly relegating him to last position. Though never travelling with great zest, he made steady progress through the field and jumped the last within a length of the leader. Similar to his previous win, he did not hit the front until near the finish before passing the line with a half-length lead. While this was a Class 3, it was a weak event for its type and the form is not much stronger than his previous win. Though he can hold his own at this level, the penalties should have a telling effect sooner rather than later. 94

Fred Bear finished fourth to Scrappy Jack a fortnight earlier where he overcame poor early jumping to travel well into the race before getting outpaced late on. He was low and skewed at the first but showed better aptitude before getting close to the first two in the back second time round. Once again, after tracking the leader from flagfall, he moved nicely into the race and took up the lead approaching two out. However, while he traded as low as 1.2 in-running, he was unable to repel the winner's late challenge. This was a marginal step up on his debut form and though he may struggle outside of this company, Fred Bear should at least better his flat form over hurdles. 88

Oneonechop was more expensive than stablemate Koi Dodville to the tune of €1,630, but was the lesser fancied of the David Pipe pair. Nevertheless, he jumped much more fluently on his British debut at Stratford where he was beaten by lack of fitness more than lack of talent. Settled in the rear of midfield, he was slightly hampered at the first and the fifth, but apart from getting close to the third, he put in another neat round of jumping. His progress through the field was not rapid and he was still a couple of lengths in arrears jumping the last. He briefly looked threatening on the run-in but was worried out of it when attempting to find a gap between the front two. A six time winner on the flat in France, Oneonechop does not warrant undue caution on this evidence and a possible reapplication of blinkers would possibly see him emerge as the one to take out of this field. 87

Koi Dodville landed the odds at Hexham and Aintree on his first two starts over hurdles, but the form of neither performance was outstanding and his lack of fluency made him vulnerable under a double penalty. He was beaten at odds-on over course and distance and was not unfancied here - albeit at a longer price. Adopting his usual front-running tactics, he probably posted his best round to date even if it was littered by minor errors. However, he was under pressure entering the home turn and never looked like putting his stamp on the race - ultimately finishing just under five lengths behind the winner. His double penalty will continue to make life difficult and his official mark of 113 is decidedly harsh. It is possible he might find a little extra when encountering a softer surface. 94

Moneykenny has the flat form and the overall profile to do better in this sphere and following a reasonable debut second behind Scrappy Jack, was weighted to come out on top here. However, despite opening in the ring at 11/10, he drifted out to 5/2 and ran accordingly. Racing in touch on the inside, he was cautious over the first two and never really settled into a solid rhythm. While he was slightly baulked on landing at the penultimate flight, his race was already run by that stage. There was no explanation offered for this performance and while Moneykenny is not devoid of ability, he looks given to inconsistency. 76

McGregors Charge is a homebred related to decent sorts in France and though beaten nearly twenty lengths by Koi Dodville, he was not disgraced on his racecourse debut at Hexham in early June. Sent off the rank outsider, he was held up in the rear and was still stone last leaving the back. He passed three of his rivals and was nearest at the finish, beaten just over fourteen lengths. McGregors Charge jumped reasonably save for being big at the first and steady and close to the fourth. Though he has not shown enough ability to get competitive in the near future, he could develop when racing over further in time. 74

Baby Sham was the sole newcomer to hurdles in this contest and received some support at longer odds before the off. Being a daughter of Sir Percy and a winner on the flat for Stuart Williams, her prospects were not unfeasible. She skewed over the first and went through the top of the second, but jumped better in midfield prior to blundering at three out. Still in third place rounding the home turn, she had little else to give from thereon and was beaten fifteen lengths in the end. The trip ought not to have been an issue and a more reasonable explanation for her poor finishing would likely be her five month absence. Baby Sham would not have any grand aspirations but she should be able to leave this form behind. 66

Eagle's Realm started second favourite behind Koi Dodville at Aintree but while he jumped well enough, was beaten by thirty-four lengths. He beat just one home next time at Newton Abbot and it was the same case here as he never left the midfield group and was beaten some way from home. The good to firm ground may well have gone against him as his jumping was not poor. However, his patience for this game may well be wearing thin. 67

Thistleton brought decent recent flat form into his hurdling debut over course and distance a month prior, but ran a race which looked too bad to be true. In the interim, he was beaten seventeen lengths in a Newbury handicap and though not unsupported in the market, he ran another poor race here. Never settling in the rear, he jumped clumsily and ultimately finished tailed off. 21

UTTOXETER 25th July
Preview review
While it was true that this race could emerge as the best contested to date, the field did not finish in accordance with the prospects list. Nevertheless, there are two strands of thought which might help elucidate such oversights. Firstly, regarding the overestimation of Knotty Ash, there is a folly in estimating a horse's ability on a sole performance - particularly when the race in question contained no solid benchmarks as was the case in his Market Rasen showing. Secondly, on the underestimation of the two newcomers - while it is true that experience is valuable and unraced horses have a poor strike rate in the division, the overall figure of 2.14% increased to 3.97% when taking French breds in isolation. A figure that after yesterday's race reads at 4.58%. Furthermore, of the six previous winning French bred debutants (Goodbye Stranger, Montestrel, Diable de Sivola, Tiptronic, James de Vassy and New Entic), five were either out of, or a sibling to, a horse that placed either first or second over obstacles at three or four years old. The exception was from a family of cross country chasers whose dam still had experience in the sphere. That Sacre Pierre was a full-brother to three such horses gave him much better prospects on breeding than the typical newcomer.

Race review
With two previous winners taking on two well bred newcomers, this contest had the potential to be the strongest held to date this term. That this quartet very much had the race between them gives credence to this notion. Most of the field settled well enough and with the quality of jumping being of a reasonable level, there was little cause for complaint on a visual level. The winning time was the slowest of the three races held over the distance although the time taken to complete the run from the final flight was still fasted by over a second. Knotty Ash was unable to match his Market Rasen effort and may not have given his truest running. Notwithstanding, while it is difficult to predict the relative developments of the protagonists, the quality and integrity of the form looks solid enough for the time of year.

Sacre Pierre is a well bred juvenile hurdler for the time of year being a full-brother to three with form in France including the pattern class Gold Tweet who also made a winning debut at Vichy last June. There was not a great deal of confidence in the market as he drifted from a morning show of 11/2, starting the race at twice that price. Settled nicely in the rear, he was not asked to make his move until three furlongs from home. Though his response to being shaken up was not immediate, he got to within a length of the leaders at the last and showed very good acceleration once given the office by Brian Hughes to win by six lengths. Irishracing reports that Sacre Pierre was "not that fluent", but this does him a disservice. While he was sticky at the second, was a bit late at the fifth and got close to the last, his better jumps outweighed his flawed ones and he was actually quite neat by and large. It would be premature to speculate on Sacre Pierre's ceiling and this performance alone offers no promise of greatness. Nevertheless, it was still the best effort seen to date and with a solid foundation and scope for further improvement, he will be of interest over the coming months. 104

Keepyourdreamsbig was another newcomer bred to do himself justice at an early stage as his sire has a strong record in the sphere, his dam won in the spring at three and his uncle competed in pattern company at this age. More expensive and better supported than his compatriot (10/1 > 6/1), Keepyourdreamsbig also made a promising debut. Held up in touch, he made his move on the turn for home and appeared to be travelling the strongest at the distance - trading at 1.2 in-running. However, while he loomed alongside Burristo, it took him most of the run-in to finally get his measure by which time the winner had already flown. Though his jumping was safe, it did lack the winner's neatness as he was prone to giving his flights more air than necessary. Nevertheless, this is an issue which ought to resolve itself with experience and having shown enough tenacity to win the battle for second, a race of this nature should be well within his scope. 97

Burristo placed second and first on his hurdles outings to date and was a solid second favourite in the market here. Ridden with more impetus than previous, Burristo posted his cleanest round of jumping to date making his only errors when close at three out, and going through the top of the last. Nudged along turning for home and coming off the bridle at the distance, he lost his lead just before the last and while he rallied to regain second afterwards, he would ultimately come out second best of this protracted battle. This was a game showing and his best performance to date - matching what he had shown on the flat as a two-year-old. His official rating of 107 is not especially generous, but he can still hold his own under a penalty for the time being and may be capable of further improvement for his talented trainer. 103

Knotty Ash made a highly promising debut when taking a poorly contested juvenile at Market Rasen on his racecourse debut five weeks earlier. Starting the day at 4/5, he received sustained support throughout the morning before coming back out to 4/6 from an opening 1/2. However, his race began with a bad mistake at the first where he did not get far off the ground and stumbled on landing. He was slightly steady at the second and though cleaner over the next two, he wandered quite erratically after the turn on the approach to the first in the back. Never travelling with any real relish, he was off the bridle four furlongs out. While he was also briefly outpaced when winning at Market Rasen, he did not regain the bit here and after clipping the first two in the straight, he had already lost ground on his rivals approaching the last. Without disgracing himself, this was still a step down on his debut effort. No inquiry was made into this performance so it remains to be seen whether Knotty Ash can bounce back from a run spoiled by a first flight error, is given to inconsistency, shows better going right handed or is simply limited in his abilities. 97

Free Degrees had little going for her on paper other than being a daughter of Free Eagle and this was reflected in her starting price of 200/1. Though late and big at the first, she jumped reasonably while tracking the leaders from the outset. She was slightly baulked on landing at the sixth but was still within a couple of lengths of the lead turning from home. However, she had been relegated to fifth place at three out and had nothing else to give from thereon. Free Degrees travelled and jumped nicely enough, but would probably need to get in off a very low mark in order to be competitive in this sphere. 67

Andonno is capable, on paper at least, of showing a great deal more than he has over hurdles. However, this performance marks the third time in as many starts that he finished a tailed off last. He sweated badly beforehand but while he never left the rear of the field, he at least hurdled competently prior to a tired leap two out. This was his best showing over hurdles to date - all things relative - and although he has yet to show any promise from a form perspective, he could feasibly find himself well handicapped if eventually running to within a stone of his two-year-old form. 59

[Kotkijet]

Cheers for the note Archie and thanks for the question Freyno. Obviously it's difficult to tell at this stage how good Benaud might be at this stage or the relative merits of the competition but my initial impression is that he isn't screaming Triumph winner. Joesph O'Brien did win the Fred Winter with Band Of Outlaws who was also useful on the flat, but I wouldn't want to be pinned down with so little information But yeah, the profiles... finally!

Firstly an update on Illico des Places - he has joined Tom Symonds since the preview posted earlier in this thread. I have also noticed some support in the Triumph markets for Gentleman Joe, although beyond seeing that he is no longer registered with Joseph "cute with a t" Tuite, I have no idea where he is or what he is doing. If anybody knows then I would love to know as while he isn't tip top class, his being an Authorized cousin of a winning hurdler would make him a fairly interesting recruit...

Benaud brg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f7-2-0 (103) 105
Australia (Danehill Dancer){1-e}(0.76) 4/1 General Cloney 3rd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2000
At an opening price of 25/1, Bernaud is the first ante-post favourite for this season's Triumph Hurdle. This is presumably down to his connections and his official rating of 103 which he earned by finishing fourth in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot. Since the 2004/05 season, 125 horses have competed in juvenile hurdles having ran to marks of at least 100 on the flat - including two Triumph winners (Celestial Halo and Ivanovich Gorbatov), two Anniversary Hurdle victors (Faasel and Binocular), and a pair of Irish Grade One winners in Saldier and Sir Erec. Two of the aforementioned carried the McManus colours out of O'Brien yards as did Punchestown second Landofhopeandglory. However, while strong flat form can indicate success, it does not guarantee same as five of the nine triple-digit rated O'Brien juveniles failed to win during their juvenile campaigns. Looking at Benaud himself, he raced five times at two, getting off the mark at the fifth time of asking in a Leopardstown nursery off 79. He stepped up considerably on his seasonal reappearance when taking a twelve furlong rated race at Naas, and made further progress when fourth in the Queen's Vase. Doing his best work late on, he was in last position turning for home before making steady progress on the outside to ultimately finish within four lengths of the winner. While the form has yet to be tested extensively, runner-up Wordsworth has twice reached the frame behind Hurricane Lane in Group One company so Benaud's rating of 103 is justifiable. Australia made a promising start to his career as a sire of juveniles getting three winners from nine with his first crop, although none of his five last term were able to win and only one achieved an RPR exceeding 100. Danehill Dancer has a solid record as a damsire in the sphere and although Benaud's half-brother Eighteenhundred achieved little under either code, Italian winner Jar (3/1) and Triumph Hurdle third General Cloney (4/1) do appear further back on the damline. Stamina would appear to be absolutely assured for Benaud and while he still holds plenty of fancy entries on the flat, his being a gelding with Joseph O'Brien makes it likely that he will be seen over hurdles this term. Overall, Benaud certainly has the potential to be a useful addition to the sphere, although if the Triumph was held tomorrow, a couple of the French recruits would have more appealing prospects.

Zinc White grg Oliver Greenall f5-2-0 (87) 92
Vadamos (Dalakhani){7-a}(0.37) 3/1 Master Wells 1st 2m1f Novices' Selling Hurdle, Exeter 2009
The highest sum of money paid at public auction for a juvenile hurdler was 440,000 guineas for Purple Moon at the Tattersalls Autumn Horses-In-Training Sale in 2006. Ten have commanded figures exceeding ?300,000, six of whom won during their first campaigns over hurdles with €380,000 Arqana purchase Zubayr being the most successful when winning the Adonis in 2016. Lethal Steps, whose first win came at his eighth attempt - just shy of the end of season cut-off - was the latest when fetching 300,000 guineas at the 2018 July Sale. This was until the recent Goffs London Sale at Royal Ascot when Ralph Beckett's Zinc White was knocked down for ?310,000. Starting his racing career last September, Zinc White failed to reach the frame on his first three outings at Salisbury, Newmarket and Wolverhampton, showing only fair form in the process. Nevertheless, a gelding operation, winter break and considerable step up in trip brought about immediate improvement. Making his first venture into handicap company, his reappearance came at Wetherby off 69 in a five runner contest on the Eleventh of May. Ground conditions were such that the meeting was abandoned afterwards, but Zinc White took to them like a duck to standing water as he belied his keen running nature to keep on strongly, having taken the lead just before the distance to win by the best part of four lengths. Nine days later, he defied a six pound penalty to complete his brace at Sandown by seven and a half lengths where he was ridden into the lead within the distance and eased in the final half-furlong. Though the form of neither race has worked out at this juncture, the winning time at Sandown was respectable on a seconds per furlong basis and his topspeed was the highest registered on that card. Furthermore, while he has pulled hard and been incline to edge during his races, these factors are more in keeping with inexperience than any alarming temperament issues. Though there are no immediate pointers to a hurdling career in his pedigree, there are clues which suggest solid potential. Out of the Pretty Polly winner Chinese White, nothing on the damline attempted this discipline until the third dam Eljazzi who along with producing black type fillies Rafha and Chiang Mai, is also the matriarch of a line which includes capable hurdlers Master Wells (3/1), Fnan (3/2), Everything Zain (3/2) and Elysian Flame (3/3). Vadamos has his first crop of jumpers this season and his sole French runner to date, Javado, has shown respectable placed form without winning as of yet. Standing at an acceptable 1.65 meters, Vadamos won the Prix du Moulin over a mile but was also able to score over twelve furlongs and is the nephew of handicap hurdler Vadnagar. More pertinently, he is also a son of Monsun which puts him in the company of Maxios, Manduro, Gentlewave and the likes. Fifty horses formerly trained by Ralph Beckett have gone juvenile hurdling, fourteen of whom have been winners giving a respectable rate of 28%. Though the improvement rate 27.5% is less encouraging, four of his six former inmates rated 80 and above on the flat were able to win during their initial campaigns. In Oliver Greenall, he joins a trainer going from strength to strength whose latest campaign was his most successful in the division to date with six wins split between three laudable types including Herbiers who capped his season with Class 2 handicap wins at Ascot and Sandown. Zinc White will have to do something quite exceptional to justify the fee paid for him, particularly as he has yet to demonstrate he can perform on anything firmer than a ploughed field. Nevertheless, a solid overall profile and discernible scope and class would still make him an interesting recruit to the division.

Parmenion bg Willie Mullins f1-1-0 (-)
Soldier Hollow (Monsun){6-e}(0.41) 2/1 Ayrton Banks 1st 3YO Conditions Hurdle, Lyon-Parilly 2019

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/parmenion

During the past ten years, Willie Mullis has sourced seven juvenile hurdlers from the Arqana Summer Sale. Six of these would win during their juvenile campaigns including Adriana des Mottes, Petite Parisienne and Diakali. The last named, costing €160,000 in 2012, was the most expensive graduate of the sale until this year when Parmenion was knocked down for €230,000. Parmenion's sole flat outing came on the 17th of June in a 2,200 meter, fourteen runner maiden contest at Craon. Settled behind the leaders, Parmenion hit the from 300 meters from home, needing only to be pushed out to win by three lengths. Runner-up Laishann, who finished fourth on his debut, has joined Gordon Elliott after fetching €82,000 at the same sale while third placed Ker Welen is a 33 (72.6) rated horse who placed second on his two prior outings, and again subsequently off the same mark at Chateaubriant. By Soldier Hollow and out of a Monsun mare, Parmenion is from the same cross as Saldier who was a useful juvenile for the Mullins yard in the 2017/18 campaign. The damline is also conducive to a successful campaign in the sphere as uncle Ayrton Banks won a three-year-old hurdle at Lyon and cousin Swnymor fell in the rescheduled Finale Hurdle when holding every chance. Evening Hush and Wolf Prince, both placed in Grade One juvenile hurdles, also appear on the distaff side at 3/2. Though only so much can be inferred from a sole flat start, Parmenion shaped with plenty of promise and his joining a leading yard along with a likeable pedigree bodes well for the upcoming season.

Laishann chg Gordon Elliott f2-0-1 (-)
Footstepsinthesand (Teofilo){6-e}(0.57) 3/3 Kyalco 3rd Prix du President de la Republique (G3,62), Auteull 2017

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/laishann

Another graduate of the Arqana Summer sale, Laishaan was picked up by Gordon Elliott for €82,000. However, in contrast to the Mullins roll call, the master of Cullentra has not been so successful with his Arqana recruits as with the exception of Vercingetorix (who was bought privately), his three purchases failed to win in fourteen attempts as juveniles (although Cause Of Causes would eventually go on to finish second in the Grand National). Notwithstanding, the yard's overall record with French flat recruits does make for better reading with half of the fourteen said horses winning as juveniles including Farclas, Clarcam and Mitchouka. A twice raced maiden on the flat for Francis-Henri Graffard (whose sole export Farout won a Cork four-year-old maiden for Willie Mullins in May), Laishann finished a staying on fourth at Granville in May prior to finishing second behind Parmenion at Craon. Ridden more prominently on that occasion, he proved no match for the Mullins bound gelding but showed a good deal of tenacity to hold on for second. The form of the race is touched upon in Parmenion's profile and through Ker Welen, a rating in the mid seventies seems appropriate for Laishann. The Footstepsinthesand x Teofilo cross is not without promise as while neither have produced any top class juveniles, both produce more than their fair share of individual winners as sire and damsire respectively. Rather unusually for an Aga Khan bred, Laishann's pedigree is not teeming with jumpers as the closest notable relative is the good handicap chaser Kyalco at 3/3. Laishann (for the time being at least) is set to represent a leading yard and has the attitude and potential to be useful, but he would not be an obvious sort for top honours at this juncture.

Ebasari bg Willie Mullins f6-0-1 (72) 77
Lope de Vega (Azamour){13-c}(1.77) 3/1 Ebaziyan 1st Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2007
In 2005, the Aga Khan bred Ebaziyan left John Oxx's yard for €150,000 as a three-year-old. While he would not see a hurdle in public until he was six, he made up for lost time by landing the Supreme Novices' Hurdle for Willie Mullins. Sixteen years later, Ebaziyan's sister's grandson made the move to Closutton after leaving Michael Halford and the Aga Khan colours for €47,000 at the Goffs Online summer sale. Though he has yet to reach the frame in six outings, Ebasari has made progress this term and carries a rating of 72 which would be a fair reflection of his abilities. His best effort came last time out in a ten furlong Roscommon handicap when third of six off the same mark. He came into the race with every chance, although he has given the impression that he is either green or reluctant to put his best foot forward. Apart from the aforementioned Ebaziyan, Ebasari's pedigree is not massively encouraging as both sire Lope de Vega and damsire Azamour have below average winner to runner rates of 13.64% and 7.69% respectively. Both juveniles to have made the switch from Halford to Mullins were able to win during their initial campaigns so an average race could be within Ebasari's scope. Nevertheless, the yard will likely have stronger hands to play during the season.

Foxy Girl bf Henry de Bromhead j1-0-1 (-) 132
Saint des Saints (Sageburg){9-f}(0.50) 2/1 Far West 2nd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2013

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/foxy-girl-1

The Prix Wild Monarch is an early season listed hurdle for three-year-old debutants held during Auteuil's spring season and is split into divisions according to the horse's sex. The edition for colts and geldings has a richer history of producing horses who fare well in Britain and Ireland while the best graduates of the fillies' contest (Roll On Has, Nikita du Berlais, Whetstone) did their best work in their native France. Since 2008, just eight have come out of the race to contest juvenile hurdles across La Manche and only three of those were able to win during their initial campaigns - the most successful being 2010 eighth Tatispout who won a couple of late season handicaps for Charlie Longsdon, although Salsaretta went on to become a useful chaser for Willie Mullins. This season's renewal saw David Cottin saddle the first three home and the runner-up, Foxy Girl, has since joined Henry de Bromhead to run in the Robcour colours. Foxy Girl, the shortest price of the Cottin troupe, was initially held up in the rear of the field and while she jumped neatly herself, was slightly impeded over the first three flights. Making smooth headway after passing the stands, she was hampered jumping the last in the back but maintained her progress on the turn for home to get within a length of the lead jumping two out. Though she did nothing wrong in her jumping or effort, she was unable to match the winner as she went down by a length and a quarter while putting six lengths between herself and the rest of the field. The winner, Matilda du Berlais, won the Prix d'Iena next time by ten lengths and while she had to settle for second in the Grade Three Prix Sagan, she still stands as France's leading filly of her age group. The form of those who followed Foxy Girl has also stood up thus far, with third placed Saintamarin filling the same position in the d'Iena, and fourth placed La Cheneviere finishing second then first in a pair of useful conditions events at the same track. Along with very credible form, there is also plenty to like about Foxy Girl's pedigree as she is a daughter of Saint des Saints out of a mare who won over hurdles and fences at four. The dam is also a half-sister to three talented young hurdlers in Far West, second in the 2013 Triumph, Fabulously, third in the 2006 Prix Aguado, and Firmini who was third in the 2007 Prix d'Iena. Harry Whittington's useful Fou Et Sage (2/2) and champion four-year-old come top class chaser Feu Follet (2/3) also descend from Foxy Girl's granddam. Though not as prolific as their male counterparts, imported fillies have a respectable 35.42% winners to runners rate and count the likes of Apple's Jade, L'Unique and Gaspara amongst their numbers. While Aspire Tower finished second in the 2020 Triumph Hurdle, Henry de Bromhead's overall record in the sphere is not the best as his winner to runner rate of 10.81% attests. Nevertheless, there will be few fillies this season with stronger profiles than Foxy Girl and it is not unfeasible that she could develop into a threat against the boys come the Spring festivals.

Gaelic Warrior bg Willie Mullins j3-0-2 (-) 122
Maxios (Hernando){1-l}(0.58) 3/1 Bagan 1st 2m4?f Handicap Chase (128), Warwick 2008

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/gaelic-warrior

The first direct Macaire export, known Rich Ricci recruit, and Willie Mullins' first import with jumps experience, made his debut in the colts and geldings edition of the Prix Wild Monarch where he finished sixth behind Paradiso and the exciting Paul Nicholls signing Matterhorn. Held up in the rear, Gaelic Warrior made some headway along the back but never had the pace to land a blow, finishing seventeen lengths behind the winner. Apart from missing the last, he put in a clean round of jumping, albeit one possibly more befitting a future chaser than a quick hurdler. Three weeks later, Gaelic Warrior returned to Auteuil for a conditions race where, ridden more prominently, he put up another decent round of hurdling with his only errors coming when getting close to the fourth and taking off too early at the last. Neither of these errors had any real impact on his performance and he finished a length behind the winner in third. After another three weeks, Gaelic Warrior returned to Auteuil for a similar conditions event where his performance was in keeping with his previous efforts. Jumping cleanly for the most part and making headway through the race without threatening a win, this time finishing just over six lengths behind in third. Gaelic Warrior has produced comparable form on each outing, probably warranting a mark in the early 120s. This would be enough to win ordinary races and while further improvement under Willie Mullins is a reasonable assumption, Gaelic Warrior has been brought with chasing in mind. Maxios already has winning chasers in France and Ireland and along with Bagan appearing at 3/1 on the damline, Gaelic Warrior also has a cousin with wins in cross country events.

[Kotkijet]

Busy day tomorrow so I will post the preview for Thursday's race earlier than usual. Additional emphasis on the "I am not a tipster" disclaimer as I have essentially written this on auto pilot. I've also had Dark Entries by Bauhaus playing on a loop in my head thanks to Dark Motive's entry here so we'll see what impact that has...

Since the 2004/05 season, no trainer has saddled more winning juvenile hurdlers than Alan King whose tally stands at 104. Nicky Henderson lies third for individual winners and tops the table for prize money per race. Both trainers are set to send out their first juveniles of the season at Stratford on Thursday. While neither horse would have pretentions to becoming Triumph contenders, they are each rated in the 70s on the flat which poses a serious challenge to those with experience in this maiden contest. Experience is always handy in this sphere and those with same are headed by Fred Bear and Oneonechop who were second and third respectively at Newton Abbot eleven days ago. Juvenile hurdles held at Stratford during June are typically of a modest quality with the median winner's seasonal RPR being 110 and their flat rating being 65. The newcomers are a notch above this standard on paper, although neither has the most solid profile. Stratford's winning DIs of 1.00 median and 1.22 mean are among the lowest in the country and the clear round rate of 95.27% places the venue in the bottom third. The going is currently good to firm although some showers are forecast for tomorrow.

Caramelised bc Alan King f4-0-0 (73) 75
Dansili (Cozzene){9-e}(1.67) 2/2 Lord Condi 1st 2m1?f Novices' Hurdle, Plumpton 2018
As well as being the winningmost trainer of juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, Alan King has a winner to runner rate of 48.37%, an overall strike rate of 23.20% and a first time out rate of 26.29%. His first runner in the sphere this term is set to be Caramelised who is a four race maiden who earned a rating of 73 for Richard Hannon. Nine horses have left the Hannons for Alan King ahead of a juvenile campaign, although despite all of them achieving RPRs of 72 and above on the flat, only Who Dares Wins was able to find the winners' enclosure. Making his debut at Newmarket in April, Caramelised has finished nearer last than first on all four outings. The company he kept went some way to justifying his mark, although he was beaten by over six lengths on his handicap debut off 75 back at Newmarket last month. His cause was not helped by his sweating beforehand and pulling hard in the race itself. There is some encouragement in the pedigree as Dansili has a healthy winners to runners rate of 32.73% and his granddam, the talented Only Royale, is the matriarch of three winning jumpers in Lord Condi, Faith Jicaro and Mollasses (all 2/2). Caramelised is entitled to respect on the basis of his adequate mark and his representing an Alan King yard with a 20.41% strike rate during the summer months. However, enthusiasm is tempered by his free running style and the possibility that this switch in codes has been brought about by a stiff handicap mark.

Crane bg Nicky Henderson f6-1-1 (72) 77
Oasis Dream (Pivotal){6-e}(1.82) 3/2 Little Green 1st Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Fairyhouse 2011
Similar to Caramelised, Crane is another switching to a top jumps yard without changing ownership. Winning at the third time of asking in a Lingfield nursery on New Year's Eve, Crane has failed to progress in three handicaps at Redcar, Yarmouth and Beverley. A beaten favourite on his return in late April, he was subsequently beaten by ten and seven lengths within the space of a fortnight last month, drifting markedly under pressure last time out. Michael Bell is one of the better sources of juvenile hurdlers with former inmates having a winner to runner rate of 30.26%. Cunning Pursuit, the only other juvenile to move between the two yards, managed to win over hurdles despite a flat rating of just 50. However, Crane's pedigree does not offer much encouragement as sire Oasis Dream has a modest record in the sphere with a strike rate of 2.53% and just two of his twenty-nine juveniles able to score. Pivotal's record as a damsire is also below average and while Crane is out of a sister to Oaks winner Sariska, the closest useful jumper appears at 3/2 on the damline. Crane is entitled to respect by virtue of his best form and his trainer, whose record with juveniles at Stratford stands at two wins from six. However, there are enough holes in his profile to prevent exalted expectations.

Fred Bear bg Sheena West f4-0-0 (53) 52 j2-0-1 (105) 90 88
Kodi Bear (Barathea){16-c}(0.68) 2/1 Silk Affair 1st Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (G3,125), Cheltenham 2009
While no better than modest on the flat, Fred Bear's pedigree and his joining a yard with a fantastic improvement rate gave him the potential to do better over hurdles. In two outings at Newton Abbot, he has gone some way to fulfilling same as he followed a promising hurdling debut with a second on his return to the venue eleven days ago. His jumping, while not perfect, had improved between races and he moved nicely turning for home trading at 1.2 in running. He was unable to repel the winner's late challenge and while it marked a new career best, the performance was not of a high standard. Sheena West has had a winner and three placings from six juvenile runners at Stratford and Fred Bear is still capable of further improvement, although it is far from assured that he can confirm placings with Oneonechop who finished just behind him last time out.

McGregors Charge bg Nigel Hawke j2-0-1 (-) 77 77
Recharge (Le Triton){36}(1.13) 2/2 Pafadas 1st Prix de Chambly (L,3yH), Auteuil 2013
The homebred McGregors Charge is related to some useful types in France and though beaten a combined thirty-four lengths on his two starts thus far, he was not entirely disgraced on either occasion. His jumping is decent enough for this level but while his stamina would be assured, Stratford looks unlikely to offer a sufficient test at this juncture. Furthermore, there is little obvious reason why he would bridge the thirteen length gap between himself at his two rivals from Newton Abbot.

Nazwa bg Oliver Sherwood f1-0-0 (-) 60
Sepoy (Authorized){9-e}(0.63) 2/1 Nisaal 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (80), Sedgefield 2012
Oliver Sherwood is not reknowned for his juvenile hurdlers, although he is perfectly capable of training them as his 40.63% winner to runner rate attests. Nazwa, set to be his first runner in the sphere since February 2020, has made just the one trip to the racecourse for David Simcock. This came in a Wolverhampton novice stakes over an extended nine furlongs back in February. Held up in the rear, he was still in last place turning for home before passing eight of his rivals to finish just over six lengths behind the winner in fifth place. All those who finished ahead of him have been subsequent winners and the RPR of 60 could well underestimate him by a good half stone. Damsire Authorized is one of the leading sires in the sphere and while uncle Nisaal was only a modest winner over hurdles, the damline includes decent sorts in Mutakarrim at 3/1, and Power Elite and Waaheb at 3/2. However, sire Sepoy has had eight juvenile hurdlers thus far, none of whom winning a race or recording an RPR exceeding 83 in fifteen runs between them. Furthermore, the yard is generally quiet at this time of year and none of his juveniles have won prior to October.

Oneonechop bc David Pipe f18-6-5 (36.0 - 79.2) 79 j2-0-1 (104) 87
Kheleyf (Captain Chop){16-c}(3.00) 2/1 Kheliana Chope 1st 3550m 4YO Conditions Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2020
A veteran of eighteen races on the flat in France, Oneonechop not only brings the highest official rating in this field, but that rating is also based on his latest efforts under that code. Since leaving the Frederic Rossi yard for €16,136 after a claimer in mid-June, Oneonechop has taken in two hurdles races for his new trainer. A slight drifter ahead of his British debut at Stratford on the eleventh, he put in a decent round of jumping before folding during the closing stages as if in need of the run. Oneonechop reappeared a week later at Newton Abbot where he put up another neat round of jumping and finished with better purpose before being squeezed out on the run-in to finish third behind Scrappy Jack and Fred Bear. The jury would still be out as to whether Oneonechop has the stamina for the game as while there are several winning jumpers on the damline, he never raced beyond an extended mile on the flat and the Kheleyf x Captain Chop cross is very pace oriented. Furthermore, while the yard has a 25% strike rate with juveniles at Stratford, it has gone over a month without a winner. Notwithstanding, Oneonechop has shown he can jump, has the ability to better his hurdles performances to date, should not want for fitness and will likely benefit from the application of headgear.

Vamoos bgg Lawney Hill f5-0-1 (57) 63 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Vadamos (Zebedee){11}(0.40) 3/1 Ainama 3rd Mersey Novices' Hurdle (G2), Aintree 2009
Though he showed promise when third on his debut for Mick Channon last June, Vamoos failed to build on that effort in four subsequent outings. He was not fancied to belie a ten month absence on his hurdles bow at Stratford earlier this month, drifting from 25/1 to 40/1 on course. After tracking the leaders and jumping reasonably in the opening stages, his position and jumping deteriorated concurrently at the half way stage and he was ultimately pulled up before the last. Though his pedigree is not without merit, there is little reason to expect any immediate redemption.

Dark Motive bf Jamie Snowden f6-0-1 (58) 66
Motivator (Zamindar){16-c}(1.07) 3/1 Prospect Wells 1st National Spirit Hurdle (G2), Fontwell 2013
Like Caramelised and Crane, Dark Motive is another to make the switch to a jumps yard without changing ownership. Previously with Ralph Beckett, former residents of Kimpton Down Stables have a respectable winners to runners rate of 28%, although neither of the pair who ended up with Jamie Snowden managed to win as juveniles. Dark Motive's career began with a third at Newbury in a mile maiden before failing to show on her next two starts. In three outings this term, she has finished midfield in middle distance handicaps, dropping from 63 to 58 in the process. Temperamentally, there do not appear to be many issues and her pedigree warrants some attention. A daughter of Motivator, whose juveniles count twelve winners from thirty-six, her third dam produced three useful sorts in Prospect Wells, Brooklyn's Gold and Old Way. However, the trainer's record in the sphere is less compelling as only three of his nineteen juveniles have been winners, with none of them scoring first time out or even prior to January.

Sentilly bf Alexandra Dunn f2-0-0 (-) 6 j1-0-0 (-) 19 18
Air Chief Marshal (Elusive City){16-g}(1.40) 1/1 Saint Contest 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2016
Fetching just €4,500 at Arqana last autumn, Sentilly failed to show in a couple of outings at Wolverhampton during the winter. While her pedigree is not unreasonable, she was unfancied to fare much better on her hurdles debut at Newton Abbot last month. Her round was a mixed bag and having never left the rear, she was in trouble leaving the back and ultimately finished tailed off.

Strong prospects
1.Oneonechop
Reasonable prospects
2. Caramelised
3. Crane
Feasible prospects
4. Fred Bear
5. Nazwa
6. Dark Motive
Moderate prospects
7. McGregors Charge
Negligible prospects
8. Vamoos
9. Sentilly

[Kotkijet]

Alrighty. Last week was a bit of a clusterfunk, but by the grace of dog, I have would up in a homeless shelter which is, frankly, a fantastic relief. In one of life's ironies, despite being technically homeless, this place with a roof, door and relative stability already feels more like a home than anywhere else I have stayed for the past few years. In another one of life's ironies, while at Durham I was very much "ghetto as f***" on account of my upbringing and past, it tickles me that I am now in danger of being a conspicuously "Durham twat". Still, with this sense of grounding comes a foundation on which to build other areas of my life and most importantly, the ability to put more concentration into this absurd little project. Hurrah! So yeah, let's get right back up to date with the reviews and preview.

STRATFORD 29th July
Preview review
The first three came from the first four in the prospects lists. The winner was second on the list and while his tendency to pull hard was not enough to prevent success, it noted in the preview. The underperformance of Crane was also highlighted in the preview. The gap between Fred Bear and Oneonechop was wider than it should have been - particularly as the latter's stamina was still an unresolved concern. Given that Stratford's more testing nature was also mentioned, this matter should have been given more weight. Notwithstanding, worse previews have been written.

Race review
The hurdles form brought into this contest was nothing out of the ordinary. Nevertheless, there were two decently rated recruits from the flat, albeit with patchy profiles, representing top yards that had the potential to be comparatively useful types if making the switch to their new vocation. In the event, one of these ran out a comfortable winner despite struggling to settle for much of the contest. According to RP, the winning time was said to be 5.71 seconds slower than that recorded in the mares' handicap hurdle on the same card. However, as the early pace was comparable and the run-in was nearly a second quicker in the juvenile hurdle, this provoked an independent assessment using the pause key and a stopwatch. As it transpires, Timeform's time - which had the handicap ran in a time 1.20 seconds quicker - is much more likely to be accurate. Consequently, taking into account the weights carried along with WFA, the pace set was a reasonable one and the winning time one of the more respectable ones seen to date this term. The overall quality of jumping was not great, and the first two each raced freely. Nevertheless, they had every right to fill those positions on paper and with distances of seven and nineteen lengths splitting the first three, the form would still have a solid shape.

Caramelised was the first juvenile hurdler of the season for Alan King and, on BHA figures, the highest rated recruit seen to date. There was a concern about an inability to settle which manifested in the contest itself as he pulled hard up to the point he was sent for home. Held up in touch from the outset, he moved to track the leaders going out onto the second circuit and travelled nicely to challenge for the lead entering the straight. Shaken up to take a length advantage on the approach to the last, it took no more than a hands and heels drive to quickly extend his lead and cross the line seven lengths to the good. Caramelised posted a safe round of jumping without being consistently fluent as he was slightly skewed at the first, big over the second, steep at the third, reached at the sixth and, while it did not cost him momentum, rather hopped over the final flight. Caramelised will need to settle better if he is to go up in grade, and Alan King will almost certainly have stronger types in any case. Nevertheless, this was a pleasing debut performance overall and is probably the strongest seen to date. Should his jumping improve with experience, he can collect a few more prizes while the pool is still shallow. 105

Fred Bear had failed to get within ten lengths of the winner in four flat outings. Nevertheless, his pedigree and connections suggested better could come over hurdles and with two promising efforts at Newton Abbot under his belt, he began the race as 9/4 favourite from a morning show of 7/2. Sent straight into the lead from flagfall, Fred Bear raced freely for much of the contest, and while his hurdling improved between his first two outings, he was not quite so clean here. Along with steadying at a few hurdles, he also got in close to the first, fourth and sixth as well as having a slight tendency to wander on the approach. These flaws were not massively detrimental to his performance and though he conceded the lead shortly after the turn for home, proving no match for the winner, he still had upwards of nineteen lengths in hand over the remainder. This marks a new career best and although his official mark of 105 is harsh based on his actual accomplishments, he can continue to hold his own at this level. 96

Oneonechop was a six time winner in France and his equivalent rating of 79 puts him well above the typical recruit for the time of year (although it is roughly par for French imports). He had faded tamely on his British/hurdling debut at this venue eighteen days earlier. However, he finished with much more purpose and was arguably worried out of a better position when third at Newton Abbot just behind Fred Bear. Cheekpieces were applied for his return to Stratford and he was steady in the market throughout the day. His previous efforts over hurdles have been marked by respectable jumping and apart from hopping over the first and getting steady and somewhat close at the third and fourth, his round was solid enough once again. Tracking the leader from the outset, he was fairly free in the early stages but not enough to warrant concern. However, he began to come under pressure going over the hill before the home turn and had lost his position by the time he reached the straight. Oneonechop was able to hold on for third, but it can be said with confidence that his stamina limitations were exposed here. While he has the ability to win a race over hurdles, it would have to come in the sharpest of circumstances. 77

Dark Motive finished her stint with Ralph Beckett a 58 rated six race maiden. Being a daughter of Motivator from the family of Prospect Wells, her pedigree warranted some respect and on the evidence of her flat career, stamina was assured. Racing in midfield, she made numerous errors during the contest and did not have the pace to get involved. Ultimately beaten twenty-seven lengths, if Dark Motive is to become competitive in the sphere, it is more likely to be further down the road than any time soon. 69

Nazwa shaped with promise on his sole flat outing for David Simcock back in February. However, while there are decent sorts on the damline, the sire has yet to taste success in the sphere and his capable trainer is usually quiet around this time of year. Easy to back in the market, Nazwa raced mostly in the rear making only minor headway on the approach to the home turn. He made several novicey errors and while he is entitled to come on for the outing, more will be needed in the short term. 68

Crane was a winner on the flat as a two-year-old and joined a leading trainer in Nicky Henderson for his new hurdling career. After drifting from 9/4 to 3/1 in the morning, Crane was trimmed back into 11/4 to start the race as second favourite. However, while he was settled reasonably well and was in a good position behind the leaders, he was let down quite considerably by his jumping. Big and slow to get away from the first, he was slightly close to the second, steady and close at the third, and tight over the next three - the sixth he rather hopped over. Under pressure and losing ground from thereon, he was slow over the last and finished the race nearly forty lengths behind the winner. Poor jumping contributed to his undoing, although his stamina is also up for question and his pedigree did not give great cause for optimism beforehand in any case. His representing Nicky Henderson will keep him of interest over the coming weeks and months. However, it can be noted that none of the trainer's eight juveniles who finished outside of the front five first time out was able to score at the second time of asking. 66

Sentilly was twice beaten by over thirty lengths on the flat during the winter and her hurdles campaign has started no better. Always towards the rear, her jumping was novicey throughout and she jumped the last tired as she was beaten by fifty-one lengths. 46

Vamoos pulled up on his debut over this course and distance eighteen days earlier. Keen from the outset, he jumped poorly before veering left and unshipping Tom Bellamy at the third. He continued to jump in such a fashion while running loose and has thus far, shown no aptitude for the discipline. 0

MARKET RASEN 1st August
Preview review
I was in the process of doing the preview, had the spreadsheet and pedigrees ready and was about to write out the profiles when I was abruptly evicted. The winner would most probably have been given the strong prospects as his hurdles form was the strongest and the expected improvement left him with something in hand over the newcomers. A market check would have been suggested for the McCain debutant as the yard has already sent out a winning unraced juvenile this term. The Bravest had chances on his two-year-old form but had beaten just one of his twelve rivals this year. The ratings given in previous previews would have gained another one for the win column and incidentally, going by the amount of above average figures for trainers, sires, damsires, families and the damsires' records as sires, the field finished in the precise order - although the clues for the ?46.20 trifecta would not have mentioned which makes it a moot point. Notwithstanding, the processes used throughout the ongoing assessments would not have warranted any revisiting on the basis this result.

Race review
Evaluating this race is not an entirely straightforward as the times on the card throw a spanner in the works. Going off a strict and rigid comparison with the maiden hurdle held half an hour later, Langafel's winning time was almost three seconds quicker which roughly equates to fifteen lengths. The runner-up in the maiden was beaten a length and a half, carried a pound less than Langafel and was rated 110. 110 + 15 + 1 + 15 (weight for age) gives Langafel a performance rating of 141. This is patently ludicrous and along with the early pace being quicker in the juvenile hurdle, the standard time was also the second slowest over obstacles on the card. Going by visual indicators, most of the field settled quite well although the overall quality of jumping left plenty to be desired - particularly from the 80/1 shot who was beaten less than nine lengths in third. In all, the race was probably not of a high standard and while the front two are respectable sorts, the form may not be especially strong or reliable.

Langafel failed to reach the frame in five attempts on the flat and ended his initial spell under that code with a rating of 55. Nevertheless, this son of Fast Company is with a trainer who does well with juveniles and Langafel made a winning debut over hurdles at Newton Abbot forty-one days earlier. He had been taken out of a race at that venue two weeks prior to this race on account of the good-to-firm ground, but while 'firm' appeared in the description here, he was still allowed to take his chance. Starting the day at 4/7, he drifted out to evens before being clipped in to 10/11 at the off. In contrast to Newton Abbot where he raced keenly and made errors at each flight, Langafel settled much better here, tracking the free-running leader while maintaining his own sensible tempo. His hurdling was also much neater by comparison, his flaws being getting tight and skewing over the first, giving a bit of air at the third, going through the top of the fifth and hitting the penultimate flight. Langafel challenged the leader at the three furlong marker and as his rival faded, he carried a two length lead along the straight which was only marginally eroded by the green runner-up. Langafel did not achieve anything out of the ordinary here, but he continues to improve and in the right race and potentially with softer ground, he could be up to defying a double penalty. 99

Corporal Jones, a ?23,000 purchase at last year's Tattersalls Ireland Breeze Up, came into this race without any racecourse experience. His profile was not without substance as War Command has a couple of winners in the sphere, his dam was a winning hurdler, his half-brother won a juvenile hurdle and useful sorts Four Sox (3/1), Joke Dancer (3/1) and Singapore Belle (4/1) appear on the damline (as does Asterion Forlonge at 5/4). His trainer has already sent out a winning debutant juvenile and while not a plunge exactly , Corporal Jones was backed from a morning 7/2 to a steady in-ring 11/4. Understandably, for a debutant, Corporal Jones showed signs of greenness, although it was more conspicuous than alarming. He raced keenly while tracking the leaders in the early stages, but had managed to settle better along the back stretch. His jumping was novicey and he made errors of one minor fashion or another at most flights. He was able to follow the winner when he made his move at the distance, but did not have enough to make any real inroads until the final fifty yards where the race was already put to bed. All told, it was a respectable debut effort and though the performance merely places him in the top third of juveniles seen this far, the expected improvement would make him a threat in ordinary company. 91

Subtle Innuendo achieved very little in two starts over seven furlongs at Ayr and Newcastle last year, and was making his return after a near three hundred day layoff. There was no confidence behind him in the markets, although there were hints of promise in his pedigree as he is bred to get the trip, his sire and damsire have solid records in the sphere, and the damline contains winning handicapper War Party (2/1) and 1982 French Champion Hurdler World Citizen (4/1). Held up towards the rear, Subtle Innuendo was somewhat fresh in the early stages, although his jumping gave cause for greater concern. After being baulked on landing at the first, he was steady before hitting the second, slow over the next two, was untidy when hitting the penultimate flight and not much cleaner over the last. While he did not look like posing a threat, he was still in there pitching in the straight, but his errors allowed the front pair to leave him behind. Subtle Innuendo's profile suggests he should be suited by the discipline and although he has no designs on greatness, he could be competitive in moderate company should he learn from this experience. 85

The Bravest began the year with a rating of 71 which came courtesy of a narrow second in a Pontefract nursery during the Autumn. He failed to show on his reappearance but his sixth of seven three weeks earlier was at least a step in the right direction. A son of Jukebox Jury (four winning juveniles from nine prior to this race) and a nephew of the useful Townshend, The Bravest represented a yard with a solid record in the sphere and was the best backed horse in the race - starting at 16/5 having been available at 7/1 during the morning. However, his jumping was very poor in the early stages as he skewed quite erratically over the first four flights. His jumping marginally improved from there and after leaving the back in last position, he made some headway on the home turn. However, was unable to maintain his progress and was never dangerous. Beaten thirteen lengths in the end, The Bravest is probably capable of showing more - possibly when his yard is in better form - although he may benefit from a sterner test of stamina. 79

Rakish Paddy tore away on his hurdles debut over this course and distance in mid-June, and after finishing last at Chepstow in the interim, did the same again here. Similar to first time out, his jumping was less than fluent. While he was sound enough over the first two, he skewed and stumbled at the third, hit the fourth, was untidy at the fifth, hit the sixth, and having lost his position turning for home, was steady before hopping through the last. If nothing else, Rakish Paddy does have a measure of pace, but while there are stayers on the distaff side of his pedigree, his sire is not a stamina influence. In any event, he will need to jump and settle better before he threatens at any trip. 77

No Escape was beaten ten lengths at Kempton last September on her only previous racecourse appearance. Though her trainer has had a winner in the sphere, there was little enthusiasm to be had about the pedigree. Racing in a first time hood, No Escape jumped poorly in the rear and was receiving reminders as early as the second. While she was still just about in touch turning for home, she eventually finished nearly fifty lengths behind the winner. 37

[Kotkijet]

ROSCOMMON 3rd August
Preview review
No preview was written and I did not really get a chance to look at the race beforehand. Eternal Presence probably had the most solid profile on paper. The case for Whyzzat largely revolved around his trainer's decent clear round rate and his consistent jumping had a significant part to play in his victory. Nevertheless, hindsight without foresight with which to compare is a fairly empty endeavour and the way the race unfolded further compounds the futility.

Race review
With the exception of 2006 when Naas took the honours, Roscommon has been the first port of call for Ireland's juvenile hurdlers this century. Last year's runner-up Jeff Kidder was probably the most accomplished participant, with Won In The Dark and Rashaan also acquitting themselves well. The aforementioned are, by and large, the exceptions and the contests impact on the future is broadly scant with the average winner's median seasonal best RPR being just 113. This year's sixteen runner line up had a similar composition to previous renewals. However, paying homage to the Tour de France's "allez opi-omi lady", Alice Kitty radically changed the complexion of the race by taking out half of the field at the first - including two of the four who started at less than 10/1. Mercifully and rather surprisingly, it appears that the horses emerged without any serious damage, with Stand Staunch getting a bloody nose, and the culprit Alice Kitty being in receipt of various bumps and bruises for her troubles. Those who remained went a decent gallop and while a few were lit up by the carnage, most settled quite well. However, the quality of jumping was not of a good standard and there was further drama when the third favourite, yet to be asked a question, was knocked off her feet at the turn for home by a loose horse, impeding the third placed finisher in the process. The winner jumped well and likely had the measure of the runner-up who made a tremendous blunder on the first circuit. Beyond this however, it is difficult to afford much substance or stability to the overall standard of form.

Whyzzat cost 160,000 guineas as a yearling, but having failed to face the starter for George Scott, was sold to current connections for 9,000 guineas at last year's Tattersalls July Sale. While he reached the frame on three occasions, he failed to win during his sixteen race flat career, including in claiming company. Though initially rated 75 after his first three outings as a two-year-old, he went into this contest with a rating of 58. Damsire Desert Prince has a credible record in the sphere, but while Dark Angel does get his winners, his overall record is below average and there is little on Whyzzat's damline beyond being a nephew of maiden hurdle winner Under Oath. Denis Gerard Hogan has a modest winner to runner rate of 11.11%, and only one first time scorer to his name. Nevertheless, he has a strong clear round rate of 98.36% and none of his juveniles have fallen or unseated first time out. Accordingly, Whyzzat posted a good and consistent round of jumping with his only flaw coming at the last where he was very slightly steady and clipped the top of the flight. Prominent from the outset, he tucked in behind the leaders and travelling strongly, jumped into a share of the lead at three out. Ridden into a lead of a length after the penultimate flight, he opened the gap to the best part of four lengths which he would maintain to the line. Whyzzat was seemingly exposed on the flat, but he clearly has the aptitude for this game and probably ran close to his flat best first time out. His stamina has not always looked assured and it remains to be seen if he can stand up to sterner challenges. Nevertheless, there were more positives than negatives to take from this performance and it will be interesting to see if he can confirm this form against a more substantial field. 105

Eternal Presence never bettered his debut third at Killarney last August in five subsequent outings, but shaped better than his form figures suggested in a series of handicaps this term. While the only pedigree clue on the damline is the presence of fair French chaser Grapelli at 3/1, Mastercraftsman and Montjeu are both positive influences as sire and damsire respectively. Eternal Presence was not subject to the same degree of support as his stablemate, but was still sent off a steady 10/3 favourite. Left disputing the lead in the early stages, he took up the initiative after the last in the back and travelled strongly into the straight, trading as low as 1.31 in-running. However, he was unable to resist the winner's challenge and he eventually split first and third by similar margins of just under four lengths. Though he was close to the first and was steady when clipping the second, Eternal Presence jumped reasonably well save for an almighty blunder at the fifth where JJ Slevin did well to maintain the partnership. Establishing the impact of this error on his ultimate performance would be guesswork at this juncture. The form did not quite match what he has shown on the flat, but there was enough in this effort to suggest he can go on from here. 101

Project Two showed a modicum of promise on his two starts at Dundalk last year, but was completely tailed off on his first couple of outings this term and subsequently only hinted at form in a pair of modest handicaps. Breeding clues were threadbare as he was the first juvenile hurdler for sire Belardo, himself the first son of Lope de Vega to have such a runner, and the closest reasonable hurdling relative was Paseo at 3/2. Edward Harty has had his fair share of winners in the sphere, although the yard has not been firing on all cylinders as of late. Project Two, held up in touch for most of the race, began to get outpaced leaving the back and was further impeded by the hapless Helvic Princess. Nevertheless, while he never looked dangerous, he was able to plug on for third, finishing fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. This unexpected performance can not be rationalised by exceptional jumping either as although his hurdling was not terrible, he skewed when hopping over the second, got in close to the fourth, again at four our, hopped the next and got in tight when hopping through the last. Given his questionable overall profile, time will have to be the judge whether this performance was an anomaly. 98

Television only made her racecourse debut at the end of May and she finished closer to last than first in a trio of maiden contests. Her official mark of 60, while open for debate, was the fourth highest brought into this contest. The second juvenile hurdler for her trainer, and first for sire Estidhkaar (Dark Angel), Televisions only pedigree clue, apart from being 5/4 with Berjou, is that her fourth dam finished fifth in an Auteuil claimer in 1990. Starting in the rear, Television moved quickly through the field but was still caught up in the first flight drama. Though emerging relatively unscathed, her confidence was affected as she was steady at most of her remaining flights. Televison never made any further progress in the race, and passed only the fading Whipsaw on the run-in to finish twenty-two lengths behind the winner. 76

Whipsaw's best flat effort was a fifth placed finish in a seven furlong Cork handicap off 65 back in April. While he is a cousin of Calidus Mirabilis, who was fourth in this race last year, the Camacho x Oasis Dream cross is not conducive to stamina. Racing prominently from the outset, Whipsaw was lit up in the early stages and also had a habit of wandering into his flights. He lost his lead going out onto the second circuit and faded badly after losing his position on the home turn. Even without the jumping errors, any optimism for the future would be tempered by his apparent lack of stamina. 81

Grey Angel was one of two runners for Noel Meade, and an unfancied, longer priced of the pair. Three outings as a two-year-old saw her allotted a rating of 51 and she was last seen refusing to enter the stalls ahead of her intended reappearance at Cork back in May. Suffering considerable inconvenience at the first flight melee, Grey Angel spent the race bringing up the rear. She skewed over the second and third, wandered at the fourth and was slow over the fifth. Though she jumped better from there, she made no impression on the contest. She can largely be forgiven this outing, although there is still little in her profile that would make her of particular interest going forward. 53

Wicklow Silver capped six consecutive duck eggs with a twenty-one length eighth of eight on his latest outing in a twelve furlong Down Royal handicap. An Estidhkaar x Johannesburg cross with no jumpers on the damline, the only saving grace in his profile is that one of his trainer's six juveniles was a winner. Opening at 40/1 and drifting to 200/1 before halving in price at the off, Wicklow Silver rather missed the first flight of his own volition, but somehow managed to keep upright while scuttering over the bodies. Having jumped left at the second, he hurdled well enough before getting close to the seventh. While not looking an obvious danger, Wicklow Silver had yet to be asked a real question or lose any ground when very badly hampered by the slip of Helvic Princess. This is not to say that he would have gone on to accomplish anything in the race, but it is at least feasible that he can achieve more hurdles than on the flat - little though that might be. 24

Helvic Princess came into this as a nine race maiden on the flat, but she had thrice reached the frame in that sphere. Finishing third at this venue on her debut last June, she also ran creditably in a pair of ten furlong handicaps in the Spring - at Navan on heavy off 55, and at Cork on good off 57. However, Helvic Princess has been anything but model of consistency and she finished twelfth on each of her latest two outings. Nevertheless, she was much the stronger fancy of Noel Meade's two runners, shortening from 8/1 to 9/2 in the morning, and again to 18/5 in the ring. Furthermore, while she is the first runner over hurdles for Marcel, and daughters of Iffraaj have yet to produce a winning juvenile, Helvic Princess is a niece of top chaser Kempes, and a distant relative of the brilliant Our Conor at 4/2. Narrowly avoiding the drama at the first, she travelled nicely in midfield and made her only error when trailing her hind legs through the fifth. She had yet to be asked a question and was in a decent position leaving the back, but after getting impeded by a loose horse, she lost her back legs and slipped on the bend. This mishap happened too far from the finish to confidently judge how she may have otherwise fared, and her lack of consistency on the flat would warrant a degree of caution when she reappears. Notwithstanding, it would be fair to describe her as unlucky on this occasion and it is hoped she will get the opportunity to demonstrate her ability over hurdles before too long. 0

Admiral Brown was unable to better seventh position, or finish closer than seven lengths to the winner in six flat outings, and he arrived here with a rating of just 48. Though a nephew of fairly useful chaser Pure Science and out of a Dalakhani mare, his pedigree is noting out of the ordinary. He started the shorter of the Henry De Bromhead pair, but his profile did not really warrant the 10/1 starting price. Setting off just behind the leaders, he was brought down at the first. 0

Bullock Park was making his first appearance of the year having achieved little in three outings as a two-year-old. Anjaal has managed a winner from five in the sphere and half-brother Saint Jerome was a useful juvenile hurdler in 2014. Ross O'Sullivan has had one winner from nine and Bullock Park was completely unfancied drifting from 40/1 to 100/1 at the off. He was pulling in the rear when brought down at the first. 0

Dies Its Eine failed to show on his sole flat outing in June, but while he is a nephew of the highly talented juvenile filly, Unaccompanied, he was friendless in the ring going from 40/1 to 150/1. Setting off in a prominent position, he blundered at the first before getting brought down a split second later. He continued to gallop loose although while not averse to jumping more hurdles, he wasn't particularly fluent without his rider. 0

Guest was tailed off on his sole start as a two-year-old, and since left Ken Condon to join a yard that is yet to have a winner in the sphere from two. Acclamation and Montjeu are just on the lower side of average for sires and damsires, and modest handicap winner Beaumont's Party appears at 3/1 on the damline. Avalable at 25/1 in the morning, but starting at 150/1, Guest was in the rear when steady at the first and having to take evasive action to avoid the fallers. He was very slow at the next and was detached from there before pulling up at halfway. 0

Stand Staunch, unraced stablemate of the runner-up, went out to 12/1 in the morning. Opening in the ring at 15/2, he was backed down to 4/1 at the off. Sire Camelot enjoyed a fine first season in the sphere, but while his numbers were down the past two seasons, his overall figures are still healthy. The damline is less compelling as it largely consists of sprinters with the nearest winning jumper being the selling class Amazing Sail at 3/1. Just about in mid division, Stand Staunch was subject to a dramatic hampering which saw him emerge with a broken nose. While the money beforehand may have suggested a good performance was anticipated, it remains to be seen if his first racecourse outing leaves an impression on his psyche. 0

Alice Kitty was the first hurdles runner for Bobby's Kitten, but is a niece of winning hurdler Kilburn and the hurdles placed Popmurphy. One of two flat winners in the field, she broke her duck at the fifth time of asking in a modest Ballinrobe over an extended nine furlongs back in June. Claimed afterwards for €5,000, she was initially set to join Philip Makin in Yorkshire but instead made her hurdling for Denise Foster. Her new handler has yet to saddle a winner in the sphere from thirteen horses, and those who leave Jessica Harrington tend not to improve for the switch in codes. This did not prevent her from starting the day as 5/2 favourite and while she opened at 4/1 in the ring, she was clipped in half a point by flagfall. Sent off in a prominent position, she hesitated on the approach to the first where failed to get high enough and took a crashing fall, bringing down much of the field in the process. Among the injuries she reportedly sustained were an overreach on the right pastern, a right shoulder contusion, a skin wound and blood at the left nostril. Naturally it is hoped that she is able to recover from this baptism of floor and hooves. Insofar as her prospects in the division are concerned, there is little optimism to be drawn from this outing. 0

Annwyl Angharad finished last on all four flat outings, never finishing nearer than nineteen lengths to the winner, and starting at upwards of 250/1 on her three starts this term. Sire Dylan Thomas has a 21.21% winners to runners rate, but her trainer has yet to taste success in the sphere from his three runners. Drifting from 80/1 to 200/1 here, he was in mid-division when getting too close to the first and unshipping Simon Torrens independently of the surrounding carnage. Annwyl Angharad ran out at the next when running loose. 0

Mystery Show, previously with Archie Watson, was the other participant with winning flat form and had the highest official rating in that sphere at 81. She landed a ten furlong Ascot handicap off 80 back in May on soft ground and while she ran flat on two of her three subsequent outings, her penultimate performance still looked good in the context of this field. Signs of poor temperament were beginning to emerge however, and she left the Watson yard for 12,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. Her pedigree is not without merit as sire Showcasing has a healthy 27.27% winner to runner rate, and the dam is a half-sister to four winning jumpers including Dilshaan's Prize. John Joseph Hanlon does get winners, although his winner to runner rate of 13.04% is below average. Mystery Show went into 5/1 at one point in the morning, but was friendless in the ring, going from 15/2 to 16/1 at the off. Already showing some recalcitrance after the off, she drifted back through the field before getting very badly hampered at the first. She was pulled up shortly thereafter. 0

[Kotkijet]

Preview - BALLINROBE 9th August
Following Roscommon's curtain raiser last Tuesday, Ballinrobe is set to host Ireland's second juvenile contest of the season at Monday's twilight meeting. Said to be a racecourse of amazing beauty (although having not seen it myself, I am obliged to say it has nothing on Hexham), Ballinrobe is a right handed track which climbs up the back with the closing stages going downhill. With average winning DIs of 1.12 median, 1.44 mean, it is not a particularly testing circuit although its clear round rate of 94.67% is one of the lower ones in Ireland. Good sorts Zanahiyr and Zoffanien trod its turf last term, while Clarcam finished second here on his debut in September 2013. The overall quality of juvenile hurdles at this venue is on the higher side of average, although those hosted during August (of which there have been three starting in 2017) have taken little winning with the average winner's seasonal RPR being 114.67, and average flat rating being 56.17. Tomorrow's contest looks rather par for the course with the experienced runners headed by Roscommon runner-up Eternal Presence, and the highest rated newcomer being a questionable stayer with a mark of 74. The going is currently described as good to yielding with some light showers forecast between now and post time.

Drogheda Dave bg Henry De Bromhead f7-0-0 (48) 59
Pearl Secret (Desert King){4-n}(1.80) 2/1 Mezzanisi 2nd 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (100), Exeter 2013
Making his debut in mid May, Drogeheda Dave has had six starts on the flat without breaching the first five. His first five attempts came at a mile or shorter, with his latest two coming over nine and eleven furlongs - finishing weakly on each occasion. Henry De Bromhead's credentials as a jumps trainer are not for debate, although his record with juveniles does fall below his usual standards with a winner to runner rate of 10.26%, and overall strike rate of 6.82%. The pedigree offers little respite as rookie sire Pearl Secret does not have the profile to succeed in the sphere, and a fair hurdler at 2/1 is the extent of jumpers on the damline before one reaches Young Poli at 5/2.

Eternal Presence grc Joseph Patrick O'Brien f6-0-1 (72) 75 j1-0-1 (-) 106 101
Mastercraftsman (Montjeu){8-c}(0.74) 3/1 Grapelli 4th 3800m 4yo Listed Chase, Cagnes-Sur-Mer 2003
Though he never bettered his debut third at Killarney last August in five subsequent flat outings, Eternal Presence shaped better than his form figures suggested in a series of handicaps this year. While the only pedigree clue on the damline is the presence of fair French chaser Grapelli at 3/1, Mastercraftsman and Montjeu are both positive influences as sire and damsire respectively. Making his hurdling debut at Roscommon six days ago, Eternal Presence was not subject to the same degree of support as his stablemate, but was still sent off a steady 10/3 favourite. Left disputing the lead in the early stages, he took up the initiative after the last in the back and travelled strongly into the straight, trading as low as 1.31 in-running. However, he was unable to resist the winner's challenge and he eventually split first and third by similar margins of just under four lengths. Though he was close to the first and was steady when clipping the second, Eternal Presence jumped reasonably well save for an almighty blunder at the fifth where JJ Slevin did well to maintain the partnership. Establishing the impact of this error on his ultimate performance would be guesswork at this juncture. The form did not quite match what he has shown on the flat, but there was enough in that effort to suggest he can improve. Joseph O'Brien has a record of two wins and four placings from nine runners at the venue, and he also saddled the first two in the 2017 renewal of this contest. Furthermore, the yard has been in good form recently and his strike rate with juveniles goes from 10.29% first time out to 19.15% at the second time of asking. Setting the standard on form and having a substantial overall profile, the only real concern would be that he has yet to actually win a race.

Fake Plastic Trees bg A Oliver f4-0-0 (53) 52
Camacho (Street Sense){A29}(2.11) 0.5 Born To Ride 6th 3400m 3yo Hurdle, Clairefontaine 2020
Since starting his career in April, Fake Plastic Trees has demonstrated no better than moderate form on the flat, including last time when finishing eleventh of thirteen off 52 on his handicap debut over a mile on soft ground at Listowel. Trainer Andrew Oliver is winless from twenty-four attempts in the sphere and while Camacho has had winning juveniles, his winner runner rate of 13.64% is lower than average.

Grand Revival bg Denis Gerard Hogan f4-1-0 (62) 65
American Pharoah (Galileo){8-f}(1.00) 3/1 Arco Felice 4th 3m Handicap Hurdle (89), Ffos Las 2011
Formerly a resident at Ballydoyle, Grand Revival is bred to contest American classics as his sire won the Triple Crown and Classic, while his granddam won the Kentucky Oaks and the Belmont in 2007. This was not to be his destiny however and beginning his career with Denis Gerard Hogan in March, his first two outings saw him fail to best a single one of his thirty-two rivals, beaten a combined sixty-six lengths in the process. Fortunes would change however when stepping up to ten furlongs for a soft ground Fairyhouse claimer towards the end of May. Though he was off the bridle from an early stage, his jockey persevered and despite trading at 1000 in running, he took the lead inside the final furlong to win by two lengths. Though the form is modest and the favourites underperformed, he did had Roscommon winner Whyzzat over three lengths behind him in fourth. Normal services were resumed for his handicap debut four weeks ago as he beat only one home finishing over twenty lengths behind the winner. Impressive though the pedigree may be, it is not particularly conducive to a hurdling career. Nevertheless, the trainer did saddle the aforementioned Whyzzat last week and Grand Revival would not be completely without chance if running to his Fairyhouse form.

Li Mu Bai bg Gavin Cromwell f8-1-1 (74) 83
Sir Prancealot (Invincible Spirit){3-e}(1.67) 3/1 Plague O' Rats 1st 2m1f Novices' Hurdle, Exeter 1990
The highest rated newcomer in the field, Li Mu Bai comes with a mark of 74 courtesy of a win in a Fairyhouse handicap in early July, and a neck second at Galway later that month. Both of those efforts came over seven furlongs however, and he was slightly below form on his return to Galway eight days ago. A son of Sir Prancealot out of an Invincible Spirit mare, Li Mu Bai is not especially bred for a hurdles trip. Incidentally, he comes from thoroughbred family 3-e which is one of the more successful in the division, although the most accomplished recent juvenile in that family, Romain de Senam appears at 10/9 on the damline. Trainer Gavin Cromwell has been in decent form recently and his winner to runner rate of 21.82% is solid enough, although his first time out rate stands at just 5.66%. Li Mu Bai is far from a forlorn hope, although his stamina and specifics in his profile do dampen enthusiasm.

Luz Long bg J G Coogan f4-0-0 (45) 41
Elzaam (Rail Link){1-l}(0.71) 0.5 Jeff Kidder 1st Champion 4yo Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2021
Another who only made his racecourse debut this spring, Luz Long has been beaten at long odds on all four outings and his official mark of 45 exceeds his accomplishments. Notwithstanding, while sire Elzaam was a precocious and speedily bred sprinter, two of his eight juveniles have been winners and his progeny has a 57.14% improvement rate between codes. Furthermore, his half-brother Jeff Kidder was one of the leading juvenile hurdlers of last season and the useful Hills Of Aran also appears on the damline at 3/2. Just one of James Coogan's thirteen juveniles have been winners, but his charge's improvement rate of 71.43% is laudable and his sole winner did score first time out. The individual accomplishments of Luz Long afford him scant prospects here, but there is enough in his profile to suggest that he can at least make a better hurdler.

Project Two brg Edward P Harty f6-0-0 (54) 64 j1-0-1 (-) 102 98
Belardo (Mizzen Mast){8-h}(1.46) 3/2 Paseo 3rd Summit Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Doncaster 2019
Though he showed a modicum of promise on his two starts at Dundalk last year, Project Two was completely tailed off on his first couple of outings this term and subsequently only hinted at form in a pair of modest handicaps. Ahead of his hurdling debut at Roscommon last week, breeding clues were threadbare as he was the first juvenile hurdler for sire Belardo, himself the first son of Lope de Vega to have such a runner, and the closest reasonable hurdling relative was Paseo at 3/2. Edward Harty has had his fair share of winners in the sphere, although the yard has not been firing on all cylinders as of late. In the contest itself, Project Two was held up in touch for most of the race and began to get outpaced leaving the back, further impeded by the hapless slip of Helvic Princess. Nevertheless, while he never looked dangerous, he was able to plug on for third, finishing fifteen lengths clear of the remainder. This unexpected performance can not be rationalised by exceptional jumping as although his hurdling was not terrible, he skewed when hopping over the second, got in close to the fourth, again at four our, hopped the next and got in tight when hopping through the last. Given his questionable overall profile, time will have to be the judge whether this performance was an anomaly and there is no reason why he would reverse placings with Eternal Presence.

Rich Law No Law bg M Keane f8-0-2 (45) 52
Lawman (Singspiel){2-f}(0.78) 2/2 Percy Street 6th Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (G3,124), Cheltenham 2017
Starting his career with Kevin Prendergast, Rich Law No Law collected a couple of placings in a pair of nurseries last autumn. However, his final two starts of last year were below par and he joined Maurice Keane after fetching €5,500 at the Goffs February sale. He was well beaten off 46 on his first start for his new handler - who himself is without any jumps winner since September 2012. Lawman has a fairly solid record as a sire of juveniles and cousin Percy Street finished sixth in the 2017 Fred Winter. However, there are enough holes in Rich Law No Law's form and profile to temper any real enthusiasm here.

Virtual Hug bg Conor O'Dwyer f11-0-2 (65) 76
Buratino (Lilbourne Lad){3-o}(0.56) 4/1 Inchacooley 5th 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Leopardstown 1996
The second highest rated newcomer in the field is Virtual Hug who arrives here after eleven flat outings with a mark of 65. His best efforts came over a mile at Gowran last August, Naas the following month, and at Dundalk in January. He ran below par on his return from a three month break in May but shaped better when last seen at Leopardstown eighteen days ago. He has yet to race beyond a mile and his free running style may be more pronounced in this type of contest. Despite a low dosage index, his pedigree is not given to stamina although sire Buratino's sole juvenile to date has been a winner. Conor O'Dwyer has had a winner this month, but is yet to taste success in this discipline from fifteen individual juveniles. Virtual Hugs holds some chance on form, but he will absolutely need to settle if he is to have an impact in this sphere.

Whipsaw bg Henry De Bromhead f6-0-0 (59) 65 j1-0-0 (-) 87 81
Camacho (Oasis Dream){4-j}(2.11) 2/2 Calidus Mirabilis 2nd 3yo Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2020
One of two runners for Henry De Bromhead, Whipsaw is another veteran of last week's Roscommon contest. A maiden on the flat, his best effort was a fifth placed finish in a seven furlong Cork handicap off 65 back in April. While he is a cousin of Calidus Mirabilis, who was second in this race last year, the Camacho x Oasis Dream cross is not conducive to stamina and it played out last week. Racing prominently from the outset, Whipsaw was lit up in the early stages and also had a habit of wandering into his flights. He lost his lead going out onto the second circuit and faded badly after losing his position on the home turn. Even without the jumping errors, any optimism for the future would be tempered by his apparent lack of stamina.

Calvados bf John C McConnell f6-0-0 (55) 66
Vadamos (Nathaniel){5-h}(0.38) 3/1 Madrasa 1st 2m3?f Novices' Handicap Hurdle (95), Wetherby 2015
Though still without a win in six starts since her debut last November, Calvados ran her best race to date last time out at Killarney four weeks ago. Stepping up in trip to eleven furlongs and racing off 56, she travelled sensibly behind the leaders and though she did not have the pace to pose any real threat, she kept on well enough. Denied second place by just a head, she also had several of today's rivals behind her and comes out best at the weights. Sire Vadamos has had just the one juvenile to date, but the son of Monsun has the potential to be a useful weapon in the sphere. Calvados will be the first representative of Nathaniel as a damsire, but his record as a sire is very strong in terms of class and winners. John McConnell has a healthy record in the division with a 25% winner to runner rate, and comes here on the back of landing a treble at Downpatrick on Sunday. The yard's runners tend to improve for the run, and Calvados still has a bit to find on bare form, but she would still have the potential to do well in this company.

Mystery Show bf John Joseph Hanlon f8-2-1 (81) 85 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Showcasing (Kheleyf){9-h}(1.55) 2/1 Dilshaan's Prize 1st 2m Novice Hurdle, Naas 2011
Previously with Archie Watson, Mystery Show, holds winning flat form and has the highest official rating in that sphere at 81. She landed a ten furlong Ascot handicap off 80 back in May on soft ground and while she ran flat on two of her three subsequent outings, her penultimate performance still looked good in the context of this field. Signs of poor temperament were beginning to emerge however, and she left the Watson yard for 12,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. Her pedigree is not without merit as sire Showcasing has a healthy 27.27% winner to runner rate, and the dam is a half-sister to four winning jumpers including Dilshaan's Prize. John Joseph Hanlon does get winners, although his winner to runner rate of 13.04% is below average. Making her hurdling debut at Roscommon last week, Mystery Show went into 5/1 at one point in the morning, but was friendless in the ring, going from 15/2 to 16/1 at the off. Already showing some recalcitrance after the off, she drifted back through the field before getting very badly hampered at the first, and was pulled up shortly thereafter. While she would still be entitled to some respect on her flat form and breeding, her questionable temperament and dubious hurdles debut would make her a risky proposition.

Television bf Hugh Paul Finegan f3-0-0 (60) 62 j1-0-0 (-) 80 76
Estidhkaar (Footstepsinthesand){12-g}(0.71) 4/0 Marienthal 5th 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 1990
Making her racecourse debut at the end of May, Television finished closer to last than first in a trio of maiden contests. Her official mark of 60, while open for debate, was the fourth highest brought into Roscommon's curtain raiser last week. The second juvenile hurdler for her trainer, and first for sire Estidhkaar (Dark Angel), Televisions only pedigree clue, apart from being 5/4 with Berjou, is that her fourth dam finished fifth in an Auteuil claimer in 1990. Starting in the rear, Television moved quickly through the field but was still caught up in the first flight drama. Though emerging relatively unscathed, her confidence was affected as she was steady at most of her remaining flights. Televison never made any further progress in the race, and passed only the fading Whipsaw on the run-in to finish twenty-two lengths behind the winner. While she would be entitled to run a little better with a clearer run, her confidence would not yet be assured and there is still plenty of ground to be made up on Eternal Presence and Project Two.

RESERVES
Gervada bg Ciaran Murphy Unraced
Vadamos (Deposit Ticket){2-n}(0.80) 0.5 Free Code 5th 2m3f Maiden Hurdle, Limerick 2018
Going unsold for €17,000 as a yearling at the Goffs Sportsman's sale in 2019, Gervada could make his racecourse debut here if getting in the race. Another son of Vadamos, Gervada is a half-brother two three flat winners at up to a mile including Free Code who also finished fifth in a maiden hurdle at Limerick. The great Sea Bird also appears on the damline at 5/3 with top French chaser Aveu de Kervero a further step away at 5/4. He could be the first runner in a juvenile hurdle for Ciaran Murphy, whose overall strike rate with jumpers stands at 3%. Though not entirely without potential, Gervada does not quite have enough in his profile to offset the poor record of unraced debutants in the division.

Feigh chf W P Mullins Unraced
Well Chosen (Great Palm){14-a}(0.80) 2/1 Belmount 1st 3m1f Handicap Chase (127), Hereford 2016
Willie Mullins has a record with juvenile hurdlers which is basically the envy of everybody in the business. However, Feigh, his possible first runner of the campaign, failed to sell as a foal at the Tattersalls Ireland sale, passing through the ring with a bid of just €1,800. Bred to be a chaser for the long term, Feigh is by a Well Chosen whose sole juvenile failed to score. Her uncle Belmount was a fairly useful staying chaser and the likes of Afistfullofdollars (3/2) Gaye Brief, Gaye Chance and Black Humour (each at 4/1) also appear on the damline. While any Mullins representative would be entitled to some respect, it is worth nothing that he has yet to score with a racecourse debutant in the sphere.

Grey Angel cgf Noel Meade f3-0-0 (51) 55 j1-0-0 (-) 59 53
Lethal Force (Three Valleys){A29}(1.40) 3/1 Magnitude 3rd 2m Selling Hurdle, Leicester 2009
Three outings as a two-year-old saw Grey Angel allotted a rating of 51 and she was last seen on the flat refusing to enter the stalls ahead of her intended reappearance at Cork back in May. Making her hurdling debut last week, she suffered considerable inconvenience at the first flight melee and spent the race bringing up the rear. She skewed over the second and third, wandered at the fourth and was slow over the fifth. Though she jumped better from there, she made no impression on the contest. She can largely be forgiven that outing, although there is still little in her profile that would make her of particular interest going forward.

Strong prospects
1. Eternal Presence
Reasonable prospects
2. Calvados
3. Project Two
Feasible prospects
4. Grand Revival
5. Luz Long
6. Li Mu Bai
7. Mystery Show
Moderate prospects
8. Virtual Hug
9. Television
10. Gervada (R)
11. Feigh (R)
Negligible prospects
12. Whipsaw
13. Grey Angel (R)
14. Rich Law No Law
15. Drogheda Dave
16. Fake Plastic Trees

[CueCard]

Thank you for all your hard work here, Kotkijet - I really enjoyed reading your posts. I’m glad to read that you have found yourself somewhere safe and hope that your situation continues to improve.

[Kotkijet]

Very kind of you to say. Cheers Cue Card. Situation was a bit wobbly this week but it's healthy to be reminded that "temporary" is the operative word in temporary accommodation! Still, I'm in a much better position than a fortnight ago and while there will inevitably be more surprises ahead, best I can do is prepare myself for whatever eventuality...

I just realise I've been sitting on the Ballinrobe review for a couple of days... Will post after this PSA...

It will be a while before the next juvenile hurdle so I am hoping to get some profiles done for possible recruits to the division. If there are any suggestions that are not listed below then I am more than happy to have a look.

These are on my to-do list.
Tashkhan
Too Friendly
Champion Green
Champagne Piaff
Impulsive One
Brunello

These are on the maybe pile.
Knight Salute
Sonning
Genuflex
Book Of Secrets

These are listed for the Triumph but am unsure how likely they are to jump a hurdle in Britain or Ireland this term.
Altesse du Berlais
Mojo Star
Earlswood

I like a crack at these but I am unsure as to who they are with. If anybody can enlighten us then that would be most appreciated!
Message Personnel
Ramure
Tanganyika
Kotmask
In Excess
Il Etait Temps
Gentleman Joe

BALLINROBE - 9th August
Preview review
The winner, whose tissue price was 14/1 in the RP and 25/1 on ATR, placed second on the prospects list and received sustained market support throughout the day before being sent off the 10/3 second favourite. For a moment leaving the back, the first three on the prospects list looked set to match their positions on the course before Eternal Presence faded into third. While having the most solid profile, that the favourite had yet to actually win was raised as a concern, although whether by design or resignation, his going for home a long way out was probably a greater factor in his lacklustre finish. Li Mu Bai, the only runner starting shorter than 10/1 who failed to run a race, was flagged as a doubtful stayer and this played out in the race. The pulled-up 80/1 shot, Luz Long, was given a relatively positive assessment, though while he ran according to his price, he reportedly made respiratory noises in running. Overall, though a beaten strong prospect will always have a sting, when accounting for the fact that the preview is meant to be informative rather than advisory, it is difficult to be too disappointed.

Race review
This term's second juvenile hurdle to take place in Ireland looked fairly ordinary beforehand and the form of the race is unlikely to have any great relevance once the season goes into full swing. Nevertheless, the standard of jumping was better than in the Roscommon curtain raiser and the pace and winning time were very respectful compared to the other races at the distance on the card - with Calvados passing the post in a time 2.1 seconds quicker than the maiden, and 5.4 seconds faster than the handicap hurdle. The first three, who were entitled to be in the frame, were separated by over eleven lengths with wide intervals splitting the field from fourth place onwards. First and second are unexposed, improving sorts and while the third was probably denied a better position by ambitious tactics, he still stepped up on his debut effort by dint of a cleaner round. While the third placed horse could feasibly better his rivals in the future, the form still has a solid enough shape.

Calvados failed to reach the frame in six outings on the flat, but her latest effort in that sphere was her strongest to date. Stepped up to eleven furlongs for a Killarney handicap, she travelled sensibly and kept on to the finish, being denied a second place finish by a head. Trainer John McConnell has a healthy record in this discipline and the yard was in good form going into this contest. Furthermore, while sire Vadamos had hitherto been untested in the sphere, he has the attributes to be a useful source of juveniles and Calvados became his first winner over jumps with a convincing display. Overlooked in the tissue prices, she started the day at 6/1 which was also her opening show in the ring. However, she was the subject of sustained support in the lead up to the off and started the race as 10/3 clear second favourite. Sent off in a prominent position, she moved to track the leaders, travelling comfortably along the way. Nudged along to make headway from the top of the hill, she was ridden with more impetus approaching the distance and reached the leader jumping the last. Landing alongside, she noticeably more full of running than her rival and moved into a clear lead in a matter of strides before extending her advantage to half-a-dozen lengths and running out a fairly cosy winner. Calvados jumped nicely for a debutant with her only errors being a slight clip of the third and giving the fourth a bit of air. The form does not amount to a great deal but the winning time was decent and she did everything very professionally. Already an improver on the flat, Calvados has maintained her progress over hurdles and there should be more to come going forward. 108

Project Two did not show much in two runs last year, and fared little better following his winter break. However, he overcame some sloppy jumping along with interference in-running to surpass expectations and finish third on his hurdling debut at Roscommon. Available at 7/1 during the morning, he opened on course at 7/2 and while he drifted back out to 13/2 at the off, he was still considerably shorter than he had been at Roscommon. Settled just behind the leaders, he set off in pursuit of Eternal Presence along the back and had bridged the gap to a couple of lengths when blundering at the penultimate flight. He did not have the pace to immediately renew his challenge and while he was eventually able to overhaul the long time leader, the winner had already flown. Project Two proved that his hurdling debut was not a fluke and a better overall round of jumping brought about further improvement in form. While this performance would not amount to a great deal, it would still be one of the strongest seen to date in the division and a win would not be beyond Project Two's scope over the coming weeks. 108

Eternal Presence, by Mastercraftsman, out of a Montjeu mare and trained by Joseph O'Brien, has as very solid profile for a prospective hurdler. While he was a maiden after six runs on the flat, his official rating of 72 is well up to scratch for the time of year and his debut second at Roscommon was not without promise. Jumping well for the most part, save for a blunder on the first circuit, he found only one too good. Returning here six days later and starting a solid 6/4 favourite, Eternal Presence started prominently and made the lead his own after the third. Without pulling hard, he was fairly free up front and going along the back, he went into a clear lead. He still held a good advantage half a mile from home but initial signs of his faltering began to show at two out where he got close to the flight making his first real error of the contest. His advantage had been reduced almost to nil by the last and forfeiting the lead shortly after. he was soon treading water and lost third in the final two hundred yards. Though his cleaner round marks a slight step up on his debut outing, this marks the second occasion in as many runs where he was beaten after trading at long odds-on in running. Eternal Presence clearly has the ability to win a race of this nature, and the most feasible explanation for this defeat would be his being sent for home too early. Whether this was by design or whether Eternal Presence ran out of his rider's hands is not patently obvious. His stamina, while not bottomless, should still be sufficient to see out the minimum trip over hurdles. While he does not look particularly wayward, it is possible that he may benefit from a date with a pair of scissors. However, the fact remains that he has yet to deliver on his potential and until he gets his head in front where it matters, there will be a question mark hanging over his profile. 103

Television finished nearer last than first on her three flat outings since her debut in late May, but her rating of 60 does not make her a forlorn prospect for hurdling. She was the subject of light support ahead of her hurdles bow at Roscommon and ran on into fourth after getting caught up in the first flight drama. Available at 10/1 in the morning, she opening in the ring at 20/1 which would remain stagnant up to the off. Held up in touch, Television was big over the second and hopped over the third, but was more assured overall than she had been the previous week. Looking one paced as the race unfolded, she stayed on late to challenge for third and had upwards of eleven lengths in hand over the remainder of the field. This was more in keeping with her best flat form and while there were no excuses on this occasion, Television can still improve to be competitive in moderate company. 95

Whipsaw was the shorter priced of the two Henry De Bromhead runners although his flat form is no better than moderate. Another veteran of the Roscommon contest, his debut saw him race too freely to do himself justice and it started in a similar fashion here. Briefly leading in the early stages, he fought for his head before being pulled back behind the leaders. His hurdling benefited as a result and his only error was getting slightly big at the fifth. However, the greater restraint did not translate into a more purposeful finish and he lost touch leaving the back stretch. While Whipsaw put up a better performance than at Roscommon, stamina concerns still linger and he does not look an obvious winner in the making. 91

Grand Revival used to reside at Ballydoyle and parents have five American triple-crown races between them. However, he would not race in Coolmore colours and three of his four flat outings resulted in very little. He did, however, win a Fairyhouse claimer on his penultimate start, the form of which did not read badly in the context of this field. Grand Revival raced very lazily at Fairyhouse and he managed to get himself detached in the early stages here, jumping slowly and untidily in the process. Tailed off leaving the back, Grand Revival was able to pass a few beaten horses in the closing stages, although he still finished forty-one lengths behind the winner. Grand Revival is seemingly a horse capable of better than he shows, and while his unreliability would make him of little interest in the short term, he could potentially be competitive should he develop such a mentality. 73

Fake Plastic Trees collected four duck eggs from as many outings on the flat and his profile did not suggest that a change of fortunes was forthcoming over hurdles. Jumping big and slowly, Fake Plastic Trees was held up towards the rear and though he made some headway around the half-way stage, he soon lost his position with a tired jump two out. 72

Gervada, making his racecourse debut here, is by the same sire as the winner but that was essentially the extent of positives in his profile. Largely anonymous in the markets, he set off prominently, raced keenly, but did not make any real hurdling errors. He lost places along the back and after clinging on to the main body up to two out, would then weaken markedly and finish tailed off. His clean round of jumping is a positive, but there is little else to draw from this performance. 37

Mystery Show had the highest flat rating in this line up and had managed to win at Ascot for Archie Watson back in May. However, her temperament has begun to look suspect and was showing signs of recalcitrance on her hurdling debut before pulling up early on having been severely hampered. She opened at 18/1 in the ring, but most faith had dissipated as she drifted out to 50/1 by the off. Racing towards the rear, her hurdling lacked fluency or assurance and was losing ground on the leaders as the race progressed before finishing tailed off. 17

Rich Law No Law placed third in a pair of low grade nurseries last Autumn for Kevin Prendergast, but had failed to match that standard in two subsequent outings for the yard. Beaten by nearly twenty lengths off 46 on his reappearance under his new trainer, he was completely unfancied for this and started at 250/1. Always in the rear division, he was steady at his hurdles (reported by his rider to have jumped green) and finished the race tailed off and tired. 24

Drogheda Dave was the second string for Henry De Bromhead and his career highlights on the flat came by way of finishing midfield in a pair of seven furlong handicaps off marks in the fifties. Doubling in price to 66/1 at the off, Drogheda Dave lacked fluency at his hurdles, never left the rear and finished tired and detached. 7

Luz Long showed very modest form on the flat, failing to get within twenty lengths of the winner in four outings. There were glimmers of hope in his profile, however, as his sire has had winners from his few representatives in the sphere, half-brother Jeff Kidder was one of the leading juveniles of last season and his trainer's horses often improve for the switch in codes. Opening at 80/1 in the ring, he went out to 150/1 at one point before returning to his original price. Though he set off just behind the leaders, any optimism was short lived as he was hesitant at the first and would be slow and novicey from there, losing ground and pulling up before two out. Nevertheless, the embers are not completely extinguished as he reportedly made a noise during the race. 0

Li Mu Bai brought a rating of 74 from the flat which came courtesy of a first, then a second, in a pair of seven furlong handicaps at Fairyhouse and Galway the previous month. Though there were stamina concerns both on form and on breeding, he represented a Gavin Cromwell yard with a good record in the sphere and was sent off a steady third favourite at 5/1. Tucked in behind the leaders, he jumped the first couple reasonably before getting tight at the third and skewing over the next. Unable to keep up along the back, he faltered as the race reached the closing stages and was on course to finish towards the rear when making errors at the final two flights, unshipping his rider at the last. With his last outing coming eight days prior and the yard being in form, there are no obvious excuses beyond a lack of stamina and aptitude. 0

[Eggs]

…..great stuff & much appreciated. Interested in your view of Arctic Warriors win at Sligo on 5th Aug. He has been highlighted by a few on here ahead of that run.

[Magpie]

Just reading about your health issues Kotkijet, sorry to hear you ha e so much to deal with, I hope everything improves for you. Love reading your thoughts on racing, and as always it’s up to us as individuals if we use the knowledge to ultimately back a horse. Hope you keep the good work up, inwards and upwards mate.

[Kotkijet]

Can't remember where I was up to with the profiles for prospective juveniles, but since a few wanted updating in any case, and to keep things a little tidier without any running loose, I may as well pop them in the same post.

One of the updates is that a few of the French recruits have been given valeurs or official ratings. The BHA generally does a straight translation from kilos to pounds which, invariably results in some horses becoming very badly handicapped. Since the turn of the century, 182 imported juveniles have come with a French rating over jumps. Of these, 131 raced three times during their initial campaigns. The average peak RPRs of these horses was 114.44 mean, 118 median. Their average valeurs translated to pounds was 132.81 mean, 132 median. This leaves a gap of between 14 and 18.38 pounds and of these 131 horses, only nineteen would achieve an RPR exceeding their valeur. As such, while Brainstorm's 136.4 would have him amongst the top weights in most Fred Winters, it is worth remembering that he is an iffy sort who came out of an average claimer...

For the sake of clarity, a guide to the guide;-

Horse, sex, gender, trainer, record, (official rating), RPR, my rating, former trainer
Sire (damsire){thoroughbred family number}{dosage index) horse's x dam is the/x dam of noted horse*, noted horse, noted horse's most pertinent jumps performance
Link to French video form if applicable

*1/0 = dam of, 1/1 = full sibling, 0.5 = half-sibling, 2/1 = second dam is first dam of.../dam is sibling of, 3/2 = third dam is second dam of...

FRENCH JUMPS RECRUITS
Matterhorn bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 (-) 116 132 (Gabriel Leenders)
Martaline (Turgeon){1-x}(0.67) 2/1 Turgot 1st Prix La Haye Jousselin (G1), Auteuil 2004

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/matterhorn-3

By Martaline (We Have A Dream, Beaumec de Houelle, Kotkikova, Malaya) Matterhorn is a nephew of top staying chaser Turgot but is also related to useful juveniles. His dam won in the division, uncle Pontvallain finished third in the Prix Cambaceres (the championship contest for three-year-olds) while Sept Verites (2/2) and Dans La Foulee (2/3) made winning debuts in the Prix Wild Monarch. Recent graduates of the contest include Busselton, Footpad, Bivouac, Dolas and Botox Has while top-class animals such as Long Run, Golden Silver, Remember Rose, Hinterland and Le Grand Luce count themselves among the longer term introductions. During this season's renewal, Matterhorn was in the process of running a big race and certainly held a winning chance before going through the top of the last and dramatically losing his hind legs on landing. Conspicuously green on his racecourse debut, Matterhorn was keen early and making minor errors, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. He moved stylishly back into the lead turning for home and looked full of running approaching the final hurdle. The incident gave the initiative to Paradiso, who was representing a David Cottin yard which has been dominant in the division this season, while Matterhorn ran into third place after regaining his bearings. The form of the race is taking a solid shape as Paradiso has firmly established himself as the leading three-year-old of the season to date by taking the Prix Stanley and Prix Aguado in taking style. Sixth placed Gaelic Warrior finished third on two subsequent visits to the venue ahead of a move to Willie Mullins while eighth placed Issam won a Lyon contest next time out by twelve lengths. Former trainer Gabriel Leenders was responsible for five juvenile recruits of which three were winners (Teahupoo, Paros, Samarrive) while Haut En Couleurs placed third in both the Triumph and at Punchestown. Matterhorn's new trainer Paul Nicholls, has taken thirteen juveniles out of the Prix Wild Monarch, twelve of them winning during their first term at Manor Farm stables including Dolos, Hinterland and San Benedeto. The unpolished Matterhorn has considerable scope and potential and is in the right hands to make a strong impact on the sphere in the upcoming season.

Porticello bg Gary Moore j1-1-0 (-) 122 132 (David Cottin)
Sholokhov (Chichicastenango){31}(0.87) 2/1 Worldbest 3rd Grand Prix d'Automne (G1), Auteuil 2009

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/porticello

Francois-Marie Cottin has sent the likes of Sanctuaire, Napolitain and Star de Mohaison across the channel over the years. Cousin David has yet to match those levels as an exporter although Busselton was a creditable sort last term and this season has seen Mr Cottin take the French three-year-old division by storm with a team including leading colt Paradiso, and leading filly Matilda du Berlais. He also saddled the first two home in the Prix Grandak prior to the pair crossing the channel for pastures new. The Prix Grandak is another debutant contest with a rich history, being the launchpad of domestic stars Saint des Saints, Bonito Du Berlais, Beaumec De Houelle, On The Go and Beaumec De Houelle, as well as talented exports in Frodon, Far West, We Have A Dream and Quel Destin. This year's edition was taken by Porticello who having tracked the leaders throughout, made his challenge in a steady rather than explosive fashion and after taking the lead at the last, managed to pull a couple of lengths clear on the run-in. Apart from blundering at the fifth, he jumped well enough for a debutant and his style of racing was in keeping with his pedigree being a Sholokhov nephew of Grand Prix d'Automne third Worldbest. Notwithstanding, there is some precocity in his pedigree as his dam is a half-sister to graded placed juvenile Orcantara and the aunt of Prix Cambaceres runner-up Invicter. Furthermore, while Sholokhov is a Gold Cup winning sire, he is also responsible for Shishkin as well as classy youngsters Msassa, Esmondo and the aforementioned Invicter. The provisional Grandak form is looking reasonable with third placed Imprenable winning next time and fifth placed Coup de Coeur running respectably in decent company, although collateral form does place Porticello behind Matterhorn at this juncture. Notwithstanding, it should still be enough to make him competitive in good races and Gary Moore could have another useful recruit on his hands.

Foxy Girl bf Henry de Bromhead j1-0-1 (-) 120 132 (David Cottin)
Saint des Saints (Sageburg){9-f}(0.50) 2/1 Far West 2nd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2013

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/foxy-girl-1

The Prix Wild Monarch is an early season listed hurdle for three-year-old debutants held during Auteuil's spring season and is split into divisions according to the horse's sex. The edition for colts and geldings has a richer history of producing horses who fare well in Britain and Ireland and the best graduates of the fillies' contest (Roll On Has, Nikita du Berlais, Whetstone) did their best work in their native France. Since 2008, just eight have come out of the race to contest juvenile hurdles across La Manche and only three of those were able to win during their initial campaigns - the most successful being 2010 eighth Tatispout who won a couple of late season handicaps for Charlie Longsdon, although Salsaretta went on to become a useful chaser for Willie Mullins. This season's renewal saw David Cottin saddle the first three home and the runner-up, Foxy Girl, has since joined Henry de Bromhead to run in the Robcour colours. Foxy Girl, the shortest price of the Cottin troupe, was initially held up in the rear of the field and while she jumped neatly herself, was slightly impeded over the first three flights. Making smooth headway after passing the stands, she was hampered jumping the last in the back but maintained her progress on the turn for home to get within a length of the lead jumping two out. Though she did nothing wrong in her jumping or effort, she was unable to match the winner as she went down by a length and a quarter while putting six lengths between herself and the rest of the field. The winner, Matilda du Berlais, won the Prix d'Iena next time by ten lengths and while she had to settle for second in the Grade Three Prix Sagan, she still stands as France's leading filly of her age group. The form of those who followed Foxy Girl has also stood up thus far, with third placed Saintamarin filling the same position in the d'Iena, and fourth placed La Cheneviere finishing second then first in a pair of useful conditions events at the same track. Along with very credible form, there is also plenty to like about Foxy Girl's pedigree as she is a daughter of Saint des Saints out of a mare who won over hurdles and fences at four. The dam is also a half-sister to three talented young hurdlers in Far West, second in the 2013 Triumph, Fabulously, third in the 2006 Prix Aguado, and Firmini who was third in the 2007 Prix d'Iena. Harry Whittington's useful Fou Et Sage (2/2) and champion four-year-old come top class chaser Feu Follet (2/3) also descend from Foxy Girl's granddam. Though not as prolific as their male counterparts, imported fillies have a respectable 35.42% winners to runners rate and count the likes of Apple's Jade, L'Unique and Gaspara amongst their numbers. While Aspire Tower finished second in the 2020 Triumph Hurdle, Henry de Bromhead's overall record in the sphere is not the best as his winner to runner rate of 10.81% attests. Nevertheless, there will be few fillies this season with stronger profiles than Foxy Girl and it is not unfeasible that she could develop into a threat against the boys come the Spring festivals.

Magistrato bg Paul Nicholls j1-0-1 (-) 119 129 (David Cottin)
Kapgarde (Poliglote){3-d}(1.00) 1/0 Franche Alliance 2nd Prix Beugnot (L,63.0), Enghien 2015

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/magistrato

Runner-up to Porticello in the Prix Grandak, Magistrato is another addition to the Paul Nicholls ranks and is following in the hoofprints of Far West, Frodon, Quel Destin, Qualando and Marracudja who all started in the same contest. Fresh on his racecourse debut, Magistrato soon established a clear lead which he would to the final flight where he was headed by Porticello. Jumping better overall than the winner, he done more by a lack of pace than fatigue and still managed to increase his advantage of the subsequent winner in third. A son of Kapgarde, his dam showed useful form over nineteen furlongs on heavy ground and is herself a half-sister to La Bague Au Roi and Kaysersberg. As such, the 3000 meters at Auteuil was unlikely to suit and while it is to his credit that he performed satisfactorily, it perhaps indicates that he would be a more longer term prospect. Nevertheless, there ought to be races won during his first season in Great Britain and he could be of particular interest with give in the ground.

Tanganyika bg Venetia Williams j3-1-0 (61.5 - 135.3) 120 124 (Francois Nicolle)
Martaline (Kapgarde){4-n}(0.44) 2/1 Notario Has 3rd Prix Congress (G2), Auteuil 2012

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/tanganyika

While Venetia Williams will be more reknowned for her staying chasers, her record in the juvenile hurdling division is still very laudable. Boasting a winner to runner rate of 31.34%, she has also done well with her French recruits including the likes of Houblon des Obeaux, Tango de Juilley and Kapga de Cerisy. Her first known recruit of the season is the Martaline gelding Tanganyika, who went for €40,000 at the Arqana Summer Sale at the start of July. Starting his career with Francois Nicolle, whose previous exports include Quilixios, Monmiral and Allblak des Places, Tanganyika made a winning debut in the Prix du Brevent at Compiegne in mid April. A contest which has been taken by the likes of Adrien du Pont, Bertimont and Ibis du Rheu in the past, with Cristal Bonus, King's Socks and Giorgio Quercus also among past participants. Sent off the shortest price of the newcomers, Tanganyika found himself outpaced early on, and did not help himself by making a series of errors throughout the race. He managed to move into a more competitive position turning for home and after drawing alongside the leader with a furlong to go, he went on to grind out a winning margin of just over a length. Runner up Tkliwy Nihilista has gone on to win the first three-year-old chase of the year, fourth placed Surprising won at the venue next time while the third placed Moulins Clermont since joined Gary Moore for €70,000. That would be Tanganyika's peak performance of his three outings as he twice failed to make an impact on a pair of Auteuil conditions events. Inconsistent jumping plagued his next outing when he was beaten just under twenty lengths at the start of June when, having started prominently, lost his position early on and the headway he made approaching the home turn was negated when the leaders left him behind. In the Prix Frascati towards the end of the month, Tanganyika started the race with a fairly wayward jump, but to his credit, he posted much his cleanest round to date. However, too much use was made of him over the 3500m trip and along the back stretch, he had a good twenty lengths over his pursuers. He was caught by the penultimate obstacle but while fairly spent and dropping back to fifth, he was still within nine lengths of the winner crossing the line. Sire Martaline has a fine record with hurdlers and chasers alike and Tanganyika comes from a good family of French jumpers. More specifically, several on his damline made their marks as young chasers as Notario Has (2/1) was placed in a Prix Congress, Victoire des Borde (3/3) was third in the 2013 Prix Ferdinand Dufaure (Grade 1 for four-year-old chasers) while Utopie Des Bordes (3/3) won the 2012 Prix Maurice Gillois (the four-year-old chasers' championship) ahead of a solid career with Nicky Henderson. Tanganyika's overall profile is that of a medium long term prospect and, though not without merit, his form leaves him with something to find with the more promising recruits. Notwithstanding, when conditions are right, there will be races to be won this term.

Gaelic Warrior bg Willie Mullins j3-0-2 (63,0 - 138.6) 117 122 (Guillaume Macaire)
Maxios (Hernando){1-l}(0.58) 3/1 Bagan 1st 2m4?f Handicap Chase (128), Warwick 2008

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/gaelic-warrior

The first known Rich Ricci recruit, along with Willie Mullins' first import with jumps experience, made his debut in the colts and geldings edition of the Prix Wild Monarch where he finished sixth behind Paradiso and the exciting Paul Nicholls recruit Matterhorn. Held up in the rear, Gaelic Warrior made some headway along the back but never had the pace to land a blow, finishing seventeen lengths behind the winner. Apart from missing the last, he put in a clean round of jumping though one possibly more befitting a future chaser than a quick hurdler. Three weeks later, Gaelic Warrior returned to Auteuil for a conditions race where, ridden more prominently, he put up another decent round of hurdling with his only errors coming when getting close to the fourth and taking off too early at the last. Neither of these errors had any real impact on his performance in finishing a length behind the winner in third. After another three weeks, Gaelic Warrior returned to Auteuil for a similar conditions event where his performance was in keeping with his previous efforts. Jumping cleanly for the most part and making headway through the race without threatening a win, this time finishing just over six lengths behind in third. Gaelic Warrior has produced comparable form on each outing, probably warranting a mark in the early 120s. This would be enough to win ordinary races and while further improvement under Willie Mullins is a reasonable assumption, Gaelic Warrior has been brought with chasing in mind. Maxios already has winning chasers in France and Ireland and along with Bagan appearing at 3/1 on the damline, Gaelic Warrior also has a cousin with wins in cross country events.

Moulins Clermont bg Gary Moore j1-0-1 (-) 117 121 (Bertrand Lefevre)
Free Port Lux (Ungaro){3-o}(0.67) 0.5 Paris Clermont 1st 4300 Conditions Chase, Aix-les-Bains 2016

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/moulins-clermont

It is a sign of the times, probably compounded by events of the past year, that this next entry was purchased not privately or at a public auction, but on an online shop. For €70,000, Moulins Clermont left Bertrand Lefevre to become another recruit to the Gary Moore ranks. Continuing the prototype theme, Moulins Clermont represents the first crop of jumpers by Group Two winner Free Port Lux - a giant of a horse at 1.70m who despite being by Oasis Dream, has a stamina laden pedigree and has already produced an eighteen length winner at Auteuil. Moulins Clermont's sole start came in the Prix du Brevent at Compiegne which is a reasonable conditions race that has been contested by the likes of Adrien Du Pont, Ibis Du Rheu, Cristal Bonus. Held up in midfield, Moulins Clermont had a propensity to get tight at his hurdles but rarely caused alarm. However, despite the race being the slowest held at the venue this term, he still looked short of pace and was doing his best work towards the end of the contest. Though clearly not devoid of ability, Moulins Clermont would, for the immediate future, appear to be better suited to a slog around Fontwell as opposed to something like the Adonis.

Illico des Places bg Tom Symonds j1-1-0 (-) 119 (Francois Nicolle)
Jeu St Eloi (Anabaa Blue){6-e}(2.00) 0.5 Gatsby des Places 1st 3yo Hurdle, Royan 2019

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/illico-des-places

With his sole start coming in a debutants contest at Ch?teaubriant, on a sleepy Sunday provincial meeting last month, Illico des Places does not yet have a profile page on the racing post site. Nevertheless, despite his rustic introduction to the sport, he could potentially be a useful sort. The field barely came out of a canter during the opening stages during which Illico des Places pulled extremely hard. Jumping himself into the lead at the fourth, he was still fairly headstrong but was not allowed to run away under Ga?tan Masure. Though he went through the top of the seventh, was flat footed at the eighth and got in close to the tenth, his jumping was neat overall and at times, quite taking. Holding a dozen length advantage turning into the straight, one might assume that there was another circuit to be completed given the lack of urgency displayed by the other riders. Nevertheless, this advantage was increased to eighteen lengths at the line which was achieved with the utmost ease. A race of its nature would take little winning, but the form is taking a reasonable shape with the second and the third each finishing runner-up next time in similar company. Former trainer Francois Nicolle has a strong record of producing talented juveniles with last season's Quilixios and Monmiral enhancing the standards previously set by the likes of Botox Has, Allblak des Places and Coko Beach. Sire Jeu St Eloi has yet to have a runner in Britain or Ireland, but his first two crops in France have resulted in seven winners from twenty-one foals thus far. Half-brother Gatsby des Places has won on three of his four completed starts while winners Kentucky Star (2/1), Double Double (3/1) and Happy Reunion (3/1) appear nearby on the damline. In Tom Symonds, he joins a trainer who has yet to win with any of his juveniles recruited from British flat trainers, despite six of them being rated 70 and above. However, his record with French recruits is a different story altogether as five of the six have been winners, including Don Bersy and Song For Someone. Though he was thrown into fairly shallow waters for his debut, Illico des Places fits the "could be anything" category and will warrant definite intrigue wherever he next appears.

[Kotkijet]

Message Personnel bg Dan Skelton j2-1-0 (-) 117 (Jean-Philippe Dubois)
Saint Des Saints (Muhtathir){4-l}(0.50) 2/1 Wonderful Charm 3rd Peterborough Chase (G2), Huntingdon 2014

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/message-personnel-1

Jean-Philippe Dubois has been the source of four juvenile hurdlers in Britain and Ireland, two of whom were winners, and another being last season's useful Saint Sam. His first export this season is the twice raced Message Personnel who joins Dan Skelton under the ownership of John Hales. Making his debut in an ordinary contest at Chateauxbriant in the middle of May, Message Personnel brought up the rear in a steadily ran contest, and was rather caught flat footed when the tempo increased on the second circuit. The winner, Tom Symond's recruit Illico des Places, was long gone by the time he reached the straight and while ground was made on the runner-up, Message Personnel was unable to get the better of his third placed stablemate. Nevertheless, he jumped well apart from getting slightly close to a couple and he was able to make amends next time in a slightly more valuable event at Dieppe on the first of July. Racing again in the rear but keeping tabs on the leaders, Message Personnel travelled well and made smooth headway on the turn for home. He was within a couple of lengths of the leaders at the penultimate hurdle where his task was made easier by the fall of the favourite who in turn, hampered the second favourite. Notwithstanding, he ran on well to beat what was left, quickening on the run-in to emerge the three-and-a-half length winner. Given the incident at two out, it is difficult to get a good grasp of the form but there were two previous winners involved at the time and the runner-up ran to a similar level on her next outing. New trainer Dan Skelton has a strong record in the sphere with a winner to runner rate of 38.96% contributed to by the likes of Allmankind, Bedrock and Nube Negra. His better juveniles have been flat recruits and none of his French recruits won first time, although half of the six would score during their first campaigns for the trainer. Saint des Saints is more given to producing chasing types, but his record with juveniles is still very strong with 29.41% of his British and Irish juveniles being winners including Monmiral, Djakadam and Fusil Raffles. Classy chaser Wonderful Charm (2/1) would be the most esteemed of the relatives on the nearby damline, but his dam and third dam were each able to show good form at three and four years old and Muhtathir's broodmares have a 30% winner runner rate in the sphere. Message Personnel, whose form is denied a measure of credibility, has yet to show enough to suggest he is destined for the highest ranks and may have greater aspirations for the long term. Nevertheless, he is in good hands and not without potential so he could still be competitive in respectable company.

Brainstorm bc Sophie Leech j3-1-1 (62,0 - 136.4) 101 106 (Guillaume Macaire > Francois-Marie Cottin)
No Risk At All (Hawk Wing){12-g}(1.00) 2/1 Top Notch 1st 1965 Chase (G2), Ascot 2017

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/brainstorm-2

Guillaume Macaire has, this century, won the Prix Rush with Robin des Champs, Balko, Esmondo and Choeur du Nord, while Master Dino, Goliath du Berlais and Twist Magic are just a few of the talents also introduced in the contest. His sole representative this season was Brainstorm - a half-brother to Yes Indeed and Never Adapt, and a nephew of the sadly passed Top Notch. Sent off the third favourite, Brainstorm was fairly keen in the early stages, but soon settled into a nice rhythm in the front and jumped and travelled kindly. That is until he got to the seventh. The camera angle was not the best, but he appeared to hit it at an incorrect stride, reach for the hurdle and blunder terribly. This error cost him the lead and most likely any chance in the contest. Reaching again at the next, he faded through the field on the turn for home, jumped big at two out and steady at the last. Sensibly allowed to coast home in his own time from some way out, Brainstorm appeared to be the horse to take out of the contest. However, his next appearance came in a Compiegne claimer in which he was finished a six length third before being sold for €16,777. He was next seen in another claimer at Fontainebleau where, held up, he jumped safely but without any confidence. Nevertheless, he moved easily into the race approaching the last from where, he ran out a fairly comfortable two-and-a-half length winner. Afterwards, he was sold again for €16,777 of James Finch's money. Reportedly exported to Great Britain, it could be presumed that Brainstorm is now with Sophie Leech although this is speculation based on conjecture. Brainstorm's form is better than that of the standard juvenile hurdler and while he would have to improve considerably to match his initial reputation, he is capable of winning average races.

Ramure bf Stuart Edmunds j3-0-0 (57.0 - 125.4) 95.5 (Patrice Lenogue)
Maresca Sorrento (Blue Bresil){9-c}(0.33) 2/1 Ocean's Wind 1st 3900m 4yo Hurdle, Saint Malo 2016

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/ramure

One of the lesser lights of the recent imports is the thrice raced maiden Ramure. She made her racecourse bow on the first of June in Compiegne's Prix du Grand Maitre - a debutant contest won in the past by the likes of Analifet, Triana du Berlais and Cicalina. Sent off the outsider of the field, Ramure jumped reasonably well, but was firmly beaten when getting brought down at the penultimate flight. Nine days later, she reappeared at Dieppe where she jumped well enough in a prominent position, but weakened tamely on leaving the back stretch and ultimately finished tailed off. Taking a step up in class on her return to Compiegne, she put up another mostly sound round of hurdling and was still in a fighting position entering the straight before losing touch on the approach to the last, finishing just over eighteen lengths behind the winner. Patrice Lenogue has been responsible for three juveniles in the UK thus far with a winner coming in the form of David Pipe's €140,000 Hexham winner Great Tempo. Sire Maresca Sorrento has yet to have a winner from six juveniles outside of France, but he has gotten his fair share of juveniles in his native country. The dam failed to win over jumps but is a sibling of a Saint Malo winner and top class sorts in Tamarindo (3/1), Sun Storm (3/1) and Djakadam (3/2) descend from the third dam. The most intriguing part of Ramure's profile is her Stuart Edmunds whose winner to runner rate of 53.33% in the division is bettered only by Henderson, Mullins and Nicholls. Ramure's performances currently warrant a mark not exceeding the high 90s and if her valeur is taken into account when allotting a mark, she could be in trouble. All the same, she will be her underrated trainer's first recruit from the French jumping circuit so it will be interesting to see what he can achieve with this mostly fluent hurdler.

Kotmask chg Gary Moore j1-0-0 (-) 94 (Gabriel Leenders)
Masked Marvel (Martaline){20-a}(0.38) 0.5 Kapkiline 3rd Prix Ferdinand Dufaure (G1), Auteuil 2018

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/kotmask

Something of an unknown quantity, Kotmask has just the one run to his name which in an ordinary contest at Dieppe in mid June. Sent off at 11/1 in an eleven runner contest, he took the early lead and was taking quite a pull, but was able to settle better once getting a lead. His jumping was marked by inexperience as he was often steady on the approach and untidy at numerous obstacles. Kotmask was still in contention turning for home, but ultimately found four of his rivals too strong and was beaten by just under thirteen lengths. The five exports of Gabriel Leenders last term included three winners on top of the Triumph and Punchestown placed Haut En Couleurs. Sire Masked Marvel does respectably with his three-year-old hurdlers in France, among whom is another Leenders export in Teahupoo. With a name like Kotmask, the damline is predictably inundated with talented French jumpers and a brief role call of nearby relatives includes half-sister Kapkiline, Kobrouk (2/1) Katgary (2/1), Kotkieglote (3/1), Katenko (3/1), Kotky West (3/1), with Kotkijet at 5/1. Gary Moore's prowess has already been covered in the profiles of his recruits with more discernible potential. The bare form of Kotmask's sole outing would only be worth a mark in the mid nineties, but he was still very green on that occasion and more can be learned of him in due course.

[Kotkijet]

FLAT RECRUITS
Benaud brg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f7-2-0 (103) 105
Australia (Danehill Dancer){1-e}(0.76) 4/1 General Cloney 3rd Triumph Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2000
At an opening price of 25/1, Bernaud is the first ante-post favourite for this season's Triumph Hurdle. This is presumably down to his connections and his official rating of 103 which he earned by finishing fourth in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot. Since the 2004/05 season, 125 horses have competed in juvenile hurdles having ran to marks of at least 100 on the flat including two Triumph winners (Celestial Halo and Ivanovich Gorbatov), two Anniversary Hurdle victors (Faasel and Binocular), and a pair of Irish Grade One winners in Saldier and Sir Erec. Two of the aforementioned carried the McManus colours out of O'Brien yards as did Punchestown second Landofhopeandglory. However, while strong flat form can indicate success, it does not guarantee same as five of the nine triple-digit O'Brien juveniles failed to win during their juvenile campaigns. Looking at Benaud himself, he raced five times at two, getting off the mark at the fifth time of asking in a Leopardstown nursery off 79. He stepped up considerably on his seasonal reappearance when taking a twelve furlong rated race at Naas, and made further progress when fourth in the Queen's Vase. Doing his best work late on, he was in last position turning for home before making steady progress on the outside to ultimately finish within four lengths of the winner. While the form has yet to be tested extensively, runner-up Wordsworth has twice reached the frame behind Hurricane Lane in Group One company so Benaud's rating of 103 is justifiable. Australia made a promising start to his career as a sire of juveniles getting three winners from nine with his first crop, although none of his five last term was able to win and only one achieved an RPR exceeding 100. Danehill Dancer has a solid record as a damsire in the sphere and although Benaud's half-brother Eighteenhundred achieved little under either code, Italian winner Jar (3/1) and Triumph Hurdle third General Cloney (4/1) do appear further back on the damline. Stamina would appear to be absolutely assured for Benaud and while he still holds plenty of fancy entries on the flat, his being a gelding with Joseph O'Brien makes it likely that he will be seen over hurdles this term. Overall, Benaud certainly has the potential to be a useful addition to the sphere, although if the Triumph was held tomorrow, a couple of the French recruits would have more appealing prospects.

Zinc White grg Oliver Greenall f5-2-0 (87) 92 (Ralph Beckett)
Vadamos (Dalakhani){7-a}(0.37) 3/1 Master Wells 1st 2m1f Novices' Selling Hurdle, Exeter 2009
The highest sum of money paid at public auction for a juvenile hurdler was 440,000 guineas for Purple Moon at the Tattersalls Autumn Horses-In-Training Sale in 2006. Ten have commanded figures exceeding ?300,000, six of whom won during thier first campaigns over hurdles with €380,000 Arqana purchase Zubayr being the most successful when winning the Adonis in 2016. Lethal Steps, whose first win came at his eighth attempt - just shy of the end of season cut-off - was the latest when fetching 300,000 guineas at the 2018 July Sale. This was until the recent Goffs London Sale at Royal Ascot when Ralph Beckett's Zinc White was knocked down for ?310,000. Starting his racing career last September, Zinc White failed to reach the frame on his first three outings at Salisbury, Newmarket and Wolverhampton, showing only fair form in the process. Nevertheless, a gelding operation, winter break and considerable step up in trip brought about immediate improvement. Making his first venture into handicap company, his reappearance came at Wetherby off 69 in a five runner contest on the Eleventh of May. Ground conditions were such that the meeting was abandoned afterwards, but Zinc White took to them like a duck to standing water as he belied his keen running nature to keep on strongly having taken the lead just before the distance to win by the best part of four lengths. Nine days later, he defied a six pound penalty to complete his brace at Sandown by seven and a half lengths where he was ridden into the lead within the distance and eased in the final half-furlong. Though the form of neither race has worked out at this juncture, the winning time at Sandown was respectable on a seconds per furlong basis and his topspeed was the highest registered on that card. Furthermore, while he has pulled hard and been incline to edge during his races, these factors are more in keeping with inexperience than any alarming temperament issues. Though there are no immediate pointers to a hurdling career in his pedigree, there are clues which suggest solid potential. Out of the Pretty Polly winner Chinese White, nothing on the damline attempted this discipline until the third dam Eljazzi who along with producing black type fillies Rafha and Chiang Mai, is also the matriarch of a line which includes capable hurdlers Master Wells (3/1), Fnan (3/2), Everything Zain (3/2) and Elysian Flame (3/3). Vadamos has his first crop of jumpers this season and his sole runner to date, Javado, has shown respectable placed form without winning as of yet. Standing at an acceptable 1.65 meters, Vadamos won the Prix du Moulin over a mile but was also able to score over twelve furlongs and is the nephew of handicap hurdler Vadnagar. More pertinently, he is also a son of Monsun which puts him in the company of Maxios, Manduro, Gentlewave and the likes. Fifty horses formerly trained by Ralph Beckett have gone juvenile hurdling, fourteen of which have been winners giving a respectable rate of 28%. Though the improvement rate 27.5% is less encouraging, four of his six former inmates rated 80 and above on the flat were able to win during their initial campaigns. In Oliver Greenall, he joins a trainer going from strength to strength whose latest campaign was his most successful in the division to date with six wins split between three laudable types including Herbiers who capped his season with Class 2 handicap wins at Ascot and Sandown. Zinc White will have to do something quite exceptional to justify the fee paid for him, particularly as he has yet to demonstrate he can perform on anything firmer than a ploughed field. Nevertheless, a solid overall profile and discernible scope and class would still make him a very interesting recruit to the division.

Parmenion bg Willie Mullins f1-1-0 (-) (Edouard Monfort)
Soldier Hollow (Monsun){6-e}(0.41) 2/1 Ayrton Banks 1st 3YO Conditions Hurdle, Lyon-Parilly 2019

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/parmenion

During the past ten years, Willie Mullis has sourced seven juvenile hurdlers from the Arqana Summer Sale. Six of these would win during their juvenile campaigns including Adriana des Mottes, Petite Parisienne and Diakali. The last named, costing €160,000 in 2012, was the most expensive graduate of the sale until yesterday when Parmenion was knocked down for €230,000. Parmenion's sole flat outing came on the 17th of June in a 2,200 meter, fourteen runner maiden contest at Craon. Settled behind the leaders, Parmenion hit the from 300 meters from home, needing only to be pushed out to win by three lengths. Runner-up Laishann, who finished fourth on his debut. has joined Gordon Elliott after fetching €82,000 at the same sale while third placed Ker Welen is a 33 (72.6) rated horse who placed second on his two prior outings, and again off the same mark at Chateaubriant. By Soldier Hollow and out of a Monsun mare, Parmenion is from the same cross as Saldier who was a useful juvenile for the Mullins yard in the 2017/18 campaign. The damline is also condusive to a successful campaign in the sphere as uncle Ayrton Banks won a three-year-old hurdle at Lyon and cousin Swnymor fell in the rescheduled Finale Hurdle when holding every chance. Evening Hush and Wolf Prince, both placed in Grade One juvenile hurdles, also appear on the distaff side at 3/2. Though only so much can be inferred from a sole flat start, Parmenion shaped with plenty of promise and his joining a leading yard along with a likeable pedigree bodes well for the upcoming season.

Tashkhan bg Brian Ellison f9-3-2 (93) 102 (Emmet Mullins)
Born To Sea (Raven's Pass){8-i}(0.87) 2/1 Tarkari 3rd Welsh Champion Hurdle, Ffos Las 2011
Failing to show in three outings as a two-year-old, Tashkhan broke his duck on his reappearance in a ten furlong handicap at Navan in late March. Afterwards, then trainer Emmet Mullins stated that Tashkhan would make a nice three-year-old hurdler down the line. He soon joined a Brian Ellison yard with a good record in the divsion, whose winner to runner rate stands at 31.82%, with the likes Marsh Warbler, Nietzsche and Ultimate performing with credit for the Norton handler. Tashkhan's maiden win came off just 57, but such was the manner of his success that he ran off 70 his British debut at York in May. Denied by a short head, he would double his tally at Haydock at the end of May, running off 75 and scoring by over three lengths. Finishing midfield in the King George V handicap at Royal Ascot, a return to Haydock saw a resumption of winning ways as he landed a valuable fourteen furlong handicap off 86. He was a beaten odd-on favourite last time at Pontefract when failing to land a four runner contest off his new mark of 92. The winner's enterprising ride could be an excuse although it could simply be a case that he has reached the ceiling of his flat ability. Notwithstanding, stamina would not be a concern for the juvenile trip and his rating in the nineties would make him an above average recruit to the sphere should connections opt to go down that route (neither trainer nor owner are not shy about having runners over jumps). Tashkhan's pedigree speaks quite favourably for such a career as Born To Sea's progeny win their fair share of races in the division and include a couple of classy sorts in Aspire Tower and A Wave Of The Sea. Raven's Pass has not had any real success as a damsire, although Tashkhan's dam is a half-sister to three winning hurdlers including the useful Tarkari. It would be too soon to speculate on Tashkhan's potential in the grand scheme, and there may be a reliance on softer ground. Nevertheless, Brian Ellison does well with classy flat recruits (seven from the ten rated 80 and above were able to win in the sphere) and Tashkhan has more positives than negatives in his overall profile.

Champion Green bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien f3-0-2 (-) 87
The Gurkha (Lope De Vega){4-k}(0.83) 2/1 Selective 3rd 2m Maiden Hurdle, Plumpton 2005
This season sees The Gurkha have his first crop of juvenile hurdlers. Lightly raced and having his racing career truncated after winning the 2016 Sussex Stakes, The Gurkha had only one attempt beyond a mile where he was a beaten favourite when runner-up in the Eclipse. Galileo was more than capable of producing sires of winning juveniles with 73.91% of his stallions having winners in the sphere. The Gurkha was described as one of his speedier sons, and his height of 15.3? hands is perhaps shorter than ideal. Nevertheless, he was not short on class and his granddam was a half-sister to useful hurdlers Prospect Wells and Brooklyn's Gold. The first son of The Gurkha to appear on a Triumph Hurdle list is the J P O'Brien trained, and J P McManus owned, Champion Green. A maiden after three starts, his best effort came on his second outing when fifth in a seven furlong Curragh contest last November where he was beaten no more than a length and a quarter by four subsequent winners all rated at least 100. Making his seasonal reappearance in a Galway maiden over an extended mile at the end of July, he did not match that form, finishing three-quarters of a length behind a 77 rated animal. He did not settle during the contest, although this could be forgiven as it was his first run in nine months and he also ran fairly green in general. Stamina for hurdling can not be guaranteed on breeding as along with being by one of Galileo's faster sons, speedy types Etlaala (2/1) and Battaash (2/2) dominate the nearby damline. Notwithstanding, he was doing his best work at Galway towards the finish so the minimum trip over hurdles could still be within his scope. Champion Green is capable of winning races, but given the patchy nature of his profile, the 50/1 currently on offer for the Triumph Hurdle is more fair than generous.

Champagne Piaff bbg Gary Moore f4-1-0 (83) 86
Le Havre (High Chaparral){8-f}(0.85) 4/1 Kruguyrova 2nd Prix de Chambly (Listed 3yo Fillies' Hurdle), Auteuil 2006
Gary Moore has yet to win a Grade One juvenile hurdle, but has still done well with the likes of Goshen, Pace Shot and Nassalam and has long been a force to be reckoned with in the division. Several of his best were those he trained on the flat himself (Goshen, Chris Pea Green, Sussex Ranger, Altihar, Mister Chow) and his first such horse to appear on the Triumph lists this term is Champagne Piaff. A winner at the second time of asking last Autumn, when taking a Salisbury novice stakes on soft ground, he took his chance in the Horris Hill but found the step up in class beyond him. His return came in an eleven furlong Goodwood handicap at the end of July where he finished sixth of eleven, three and a quarter lengths from the winner. Champagne Piaff travelled well enough, but did not look entirely straightforward under pressure. Sire Le Havre has had one winning juvenile from five in Britain and Ireland, a fairly standard figure which is reflected in his winner/runner rate in France which stands at 18.92%. High Chaparral has a good record in this discipline as a sire, but is not as successful a damsire and the nearest jumps relative on the damline is the talented Kruguyova at 4/1. Nevertheless, there is enough to like about Champagne Piaff's profile and his overall flat form is encouraging when accounting for the fact that of the seven who were rated 75 and above for Gary Moore on the flat before going juvenile hurdling, five were winners who each recorded RPRs of 115 or better. The yard likely has stronger recruits imported from France, but there is enough to suggest that Champagne Piaff should at least be up to winning in the division should he go down that route.

Too Friendly bg Dan Skelton f6-1-2 (85) 91 (George Scott)
Camelot (One Cool Cat){14-c}(0.86) 2/2 Arch Stanton 2nd 3m?f Handicap Hurdle (97), Roscommon 2018
In 2019, the Gredleys sent Allmankind to Dan Skelton for whom he won graded contests at Cheltenham and Chepstow prior to placing third in the Triumph. Last season, Stepney Causeway followed suit and landed a four timer during his first campaign in the sphere. This time around, the first such horse is set to be Too Friendly who left George Scott with a rating of 85. Placed on his first two racecourse appearances at Lingfield over the winter, Too Friendly returned after a break to win the ten furlong maiden at Doncaster's Lincoln meeting, winning under a confident ride with something to spare from dual subsequent winner Dhushan. He then took a step up in class when contesting the Listed Blue Riband Trial at Epsom and while he finished sixth of eight, it still marked a career best. Too Friendly had taken a keen hold at Epsom and though cheekpieces were applied for his two subsequent outings, they failed to negate the issue as he finished closer to last than first in handicaps at Royal Ascot and at Newmarket. In Dan Skelton, Too Friendly joins one of the strongest yards in the division who along with a healthy winners to runners rate of 38.96%, also boasts some talented sorts in Bedrock, Azzuri, Nube Negra and Cabot Cliffs along with the aforementioned Gredley representatives. None of George Scott's six former inmates have won in the division, including Olympic Odyssey, a son of Camelot, who joined Harry Fry for six figures in 2018. Camelot made a strong start to his career as a stallion in the division with his first crop spearheaded by Sir Erec and Gardens Of Babylon. However, his winner/runner rate has flattened down to 22.58% with only one of his nine runners finding the winners enclosure last term. One Cool Cat has a 30% winner/runner rate as a damsire, but while Too Friendly's granddam was the highly talented filly Marling, jumpers are a sparse breed on the damline with moderate Arch Stanton (2/2) being the only nearby relative to show form in the sphere. Overall, Too Friendly's profile is much like the curate's egg as the positives are often negated by negatives. While he would have every right to win in the sphere, one would like to see more consistency in the profile before getting too enthusiastic.

Impulsive One bg Nicky Henderson f8-1-5 (80) 85 (William Haggas)
Union Rags (Lonhro){4-m}(1.77) 2/2 El Picador 1st Juvenile Hurdle, Musselburgh 2019
Impulsive One is not yet featured in the Triumph lists, but given that he is owned by Simon Munir and has recently joined Nicky Henderson, his inclusion might not be too far away. Previously trained by William Haggas, whose former inmates have a healthy 31.82% winner runner rate in the division, Impulsive One won his penultimate outing as a two year old when landing a Bath nursery off 73 last September. Though yet to taste success this term, he placed third in handicaps at Ripon and Redcar over eight and ten furlongs respectively, before finishing second of four back at Ripon over twelve furlongs on his latest outing. Impulsive One travels well in his races, and seemingly has little issue with middle distances. However, there does appear to be a marked preference for firm ground and his pedigree offers little respite in this regard. American bred, he is from a Union Rags x Lonhro cross which, while not alarming where stamina is concerned, does not forebode much success over hurdles. Some horses on the distaff side have performed on soft, and the moderate winning juvenile El Picador appears at 2/2 on the damline. Ground concerns and the lack of jumping credentials from sirelines are obviously detrimental to the overall profile. Nevertheless, he is not without stamina or quality so while sights might have to be kept low and on specific targets, Impulsive One can still be competitive in the sphere.

[Kotkijet]

Laishann chg Gordon Elliott f2-0-1 (-) (Francis-Henri Graffard)
Footstepsinthesand (Teofilo){6-e}(0.57) 3/3 Kyalco 3rd Prix du President de la Republique (G3,62), Auteull 2017

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/laishann

Another graduate of the Arqana Summer sale, Laishaan was picked up by Gordon Elliott for €82,000. However, in contrast to the Mullins roll call, the master of Cullentra has not been so successful with his Arqana recruits as with the exception of Vercingetorix who was bought privately, his three purchases failed to win in fourteen attempts as juveniles (although Cause Of Causes would eventually go on to finish second in the Grand National). Notwithstanding, the yard's overall record with French flat recruits does make for better reading with half of the fourteen said horses winning as juveniles including Farclas, Clarcam and Mitchouka. A twice raced maiden on the flat for Francis-Henri Graffard (whose sole export Farout won a Cork four-year-old maiden for Willie Mullins in May), Laishann finished a staying on fourth at Granville in May prior to finishing second behind Parmenion at Craon. Ridden more prominently on that occasion, he proved no match for the Mullins bound gelding but showed a good deal of tenacity to hold on for second. The form of the race is touched upon in Parmenion's profile and through Ker Welen a rating in the mid seventies seems appropriate for Laishann. The Footstepsinthesand x Teofilo cross is not without promise as while neither have produced any top class juveniles, both produce more than their fair share of individual winners as sire and damsire respectively. Rather unusually for an Aga Khan bred, Laishann's pedigree is not teeming with jumpers as the closest notable relative is the good handicap chaser Kyalco at 3/3. Laishann (for the time being at least) is set to represent a leading yard and he has the potential on paper to be useful, but he would not be an obvious sort for top honours at this juncture.

Ebasari bg Willie Mullins f6-0-1 (72) 77 (Micheael Halford)
Lope de Vega (Azamour){13-c}(1.77) 3/1 Ebaziyan 1st Supreme Novices' Hurdle (G1), Cheltenham 2007
In 2005, the Aga Khan bred Ebaziyan left John Oxx's yard for €150,000 as a three-year-old. While he would not see a hurdle in public until he was six, he made up for lost time by landing the Supreme Novices' Hurdle for Willie Mullins. Sixteen years later, Ebaziyan's sister's grandson made the move to Closutton after leaving Michael Halford and the Aga Khan colours for €47,000 at the Goffs Online summer sale. Though he has yet to reach the frame in six outings, Ebasari has made progress this term and carries a rating of 72 which would be a fair reflection of his abilities. His best effort came last time out in a ten furlong Roscommon handicap when third of six off the same mark. He came into the race with every chance, although he has given the impression that he is either green or reluctant to put his best foot forward. Apart from the aforementioned Ebaziyan, Ebasari's pedigree is not massively encouraging as both sire Lope de Vega and damsire Azamour have below average winner to runner rates of 13.64% and 7.69% respectively. Both juveniles to have made the switch from Halford to Mullins were able to win during their initial campaigns so an average race could be within Ebasari's scope. Nevertheless, the yard will likely have stronger hands to play during the season.

Brunello bg Henry De Bromhead f2-0-0 (-) 76
Muhtathir (Peintre Celebre){1-l}(1.00) 2/1 Lone Ranger 3rd 1m7?f Maiden Hurdle, Wincanton 2013
Henry de Bromhead boasts an enviable record as a trainer of National Hunt horses which includes fifteen Cheltenham Festival winners, six of whom found glory in the 2021 edition. However, for all he has made an art of his profession, his record with juvenile hurdlers is less exceptional. Of the forty juveniles he has trained since 2004/05, only four (including Triumph winner Quilixios, who was trained by Gordon Elliott during much of the season) have been winners and only the aforementioned and Aspire Tower achieved RPRs exceeding 130. Nevertheless, he already has a charge listed in the Triumph markets in the shape of Brunello. Making his racecourse debut in a Tipperary maiden in April over an extended twelve furlongs, Brunello travelled well enough, if looking somewhat green under pressure, and was not disgraced in finishing midfield. His sights were set higher on his second, and latest, outing when taking in the Yeats Stakes - a listed race at Navan over thirteen furlongs. Starting at 80/1, he was predictably outclassed, finshing eighteen lengths behind the winner and beating just one home - but largely running to the same mid 70s standard of his debut. Sire Muhtathir (Quel Destin, Twinlight, Indietir, Kruguyrova) does very well with young hurdlers wherever they race (36.36% winners to runners in Britain and Ireland, 26.67% in France) and damsire Peintre Celebre is similarly strong in his role. Furthermore, while the average Lone Ranger is the closest jumps relative on the damline, useful types Baguette Magique (3/1) and Lounaos (3/2) are not too far removed. Brunello's inclusion in the Triumph lists is largely speculative at the moment and the yard already has a more substantial prospect in the unquoted Foxy Girl. Notwithstanding, while he and his trainer still have plenty to prove insofar as championship aspirations are concerned, there is enough in the pedigree to make him an interesting recruit.


Thanks for the kind words Magpie. Situation isn't ideal but it's better than it could be - and that's without even considering the utterly horrible things happening in the middle east. It helps to have a hobby/activity/distraction which I can use to keep myself reasonably sane and happy... even if the effing character count is testing the last of my patience!!!1

Hi Eggs... I can tell you straight away that he won't be winning the Triumph :P

Novice hurdlers are rather outside my area of interest so while I am happy to have a look when I get a chance, my opinion will be compromised by an unfamiliarity with the whole landscape and processes...

[Spectre]

Thanks Kotki. That was both extremely useful and an excellent read. Your hard work and dedication is very much appreciated.