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Juvenile Hurdlers 2021/22

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  • #61
    Better late than never, the review of Friday's race at Down Royal. The preview for tomorrow's contest at Worcester should hopefully be done before bedtime...

    Preview review
    No preview was written on this contest due to the fact that with temporary accommodation comes temporary sleep. The spreadsheets had been made and the introduction partially written, but further progress was curtailed by absolute fatigue. As such, I can only look at this race in hindsight while applying what may have been my processes going into a more lucid preview. While Albert Camus was an interesting newcomer with a decent pedigree, those coming from John Gosden rarely match their flat exploits in juvenile hurdles. As experience is useful at Down Royal, Whyzzat would likely have been given the strong prospects, although his massive drift in the market would have been a concern. The winner would not have been readily dismissed although the trainer hitherto being without a winner in the sphere would have been a drawback, although her sample size was small and both her prize money per race and improvement figures were respectable. The runner-up, who represented a trainer without a winner in the sphere, and a sire with a very modest record, was the subject of a heavy gamble. There probably would have been plenty to assess had the preview been written, but without same, much would be speculative at this point.

    Race review
    Northern Ireland, or the North of Ireland, hosted its first juvenile hurdle of the season at Down Royal last Friday. One of three held at the venue each term, Friday's corresponding contest tends not to be as strong as the one held during the Champion Chase meeting; which has been taken in the past decade by Triumph placed Guitar Pete, Coeur Sublime, Mega Fortune, and last season's winner Quilixios. Indeed, nothing coming out of previous renewals have subsequently landed any major juvenile prizes, although Tocororo, second in 2015, and Tudor City, unplaced the same year, did go on to become useful sorts. Friday's contest looked a fairly standard affair overall with the hurdling form being little better than average and the newcomers having patchy profiles. That the previous winner and the highly rated newcomer were both heavy drifters in the market detracted from the race's apparent strength in depth and the field being in a bunch turning for home further denigrates the form. Despite all fifteen runners completing the course, the quality of jumping was fair at best. The winner travelled nicely and won comfortably, but the stability of the form in behind is far from assured.

    Realist was formerly trained by Michael Bell, whose former inmates had a healthy winner to runner rate of 29.87% going into this contest. He won one of his eight starts on the flat, a Chelmsford handicap off 65 back in April, and his official rating of 74 was the third highest brought into the race. Shaping like a stayer on the flat, this nephew of Oaks runner-up Flight Of Fancy, herself the dam of two winning hurdlers, gave sire Camelot his first winner of the season, and his trainer her first winner in the sphere on her twenty-sixth attempt. Opening at 8/1, Realist drifted out to 14/1 at the off and while he was calm in the preliminaries, he was one of several who got quite warm at the start. Setting off just behind the leaders, Realist had only a few behind him going along the back - although with Bryan Cooper showing little urgency, this was likely more by design than Realist's racing lazily. Though he still only had one behind jumping three out, Realist needed only to be shoved along to make smooth headway and was within half-a-dozen lengths of the lead at the penultimate flight. He was rather steep going over the last, but he appeared to get more momentum from picking himself up than any impetus commanded by his rider and he crossed the line two very comfortable lengths ahead of the pack. The steep jump at the last was not the only error made during this round of jumping as he was slightly skewed at the first, went marginally to his right at the second, was slow when clipping the fourth, got in tight at the sixth and made his only serious error at three out where he did not get too high and stumbled for a stride on landing. Nevertheless, it would be harsh to decry his hurdling too much, particularly as he was still clever when atoning for his errors. With several of his rivals seemingly underperforming, and the winning time being no better than fair, this performance would not be worth a great deal at face value. Notwithstanding, Realist probably matched his flat mark and with plenty of scope for further improvement, he could be a reasonable recruit to the sphere. 109

    Bell Ex One had already faced the starter on sixteen occasions prior to his hurdling debut, but this dual winner had been running consistently since the spring and ran to a new career best last time when landing a fourteen furlong handicap at Galway at the start of the month. Trainer Ray Cody has yet to have a winning juvenile from four and sire Excelebration had a lamentable record of one win from fifty-three starts in the sphere. There were positives on the damline as uncle Loch Long finished third in Punchestown's Champion 4YO Hurdle, the third dam produced Long Walk third Top Spin, and the fourth dam had the good handicap hurdler Roark. Furthermore, Ray Cody earmarked a hurdling career for Bell Ex One after his Galway win and his enthusiasm was reflected in the market as he was back into 13/8 favouritism having been available at 8/1 during the day. Despite having a good size about him, Bell Ex One made several mistakes during his journey as he was close and untidy at the first and fourth, slow when ridden into the fifth and was very steady when close at the next. He was slow again at three out and his trailing his hind legs through the last cost him further momentum. Bell Ex One did travel nicely enough in midfield, although he did not quite have the pace to make any serious inroads prior to the race's conclusion. This was not a bad introduction however, and he should be up to winning a race of this nature given a more demanding test of stamina. 104

    Television finished nearer last than first on her three flat outings since her debut in late May, but her rating of 60 did not make her a forlorn prospect for hurdling and she was able to surpass that standard on her third try over hurdles. While she attracted some support through the day, this had been completely negated in the ring as she drifted from 10/1 to double that price at the off. Held up in touch, as she had been on her previous outing at Ballinrobe, Television was close and untidy at the first, and skewed over the second, but jumped without mishap from there. She did not settle particularly well during the contest, but still had Mike O'Connor hard at work from three out. Television was able to gain four places on the run-in, and put up her best performance to date in the process. While she would have to find a weak contest to get off the mark, she can remain competitive in this sphere. Furthermore, although her pedigree suggests otherwise, she shapes as though a sterner test would suit. 96

    Albert Camus, after fetching 115,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale, finished his spell at John Gosden's with a rating of 89. This mark, fully deserved during a campaign which saw him win three times in handicaps from ten to twelve furlongs, was much the highest in this line-up and puts him the 97th percentile of all flat recruits in the division. There was also plenty to like about his profile coming into the contest as his new handler had a 27.27% winner to runner rate in the sphere, sire Teofilo had a rate of 34.15% and his cousins include the talented Lord Jim and the winning juvenile Sebastian Beach. Juveniles formerly trained by John Gosden who maintain their flat form over hurdles are in a minority, but this would not justify Albert Camus drifting out to 15/2 having been 2/1 in the morning. Racing fairly keenly in midfield on the outer, he was somewhat novicey over the first few flights and got in tight when slow to get away from the sixth. Still travelling well within himself, he made an almighty blunder at three out where he barely got off the ground, forcing Simon Torrens to sit extremely tight in order to maintain the partnership. Though slightly ponderous at the penultimate flight, he was able to touch down in a marginal lead which he just about maintained after another unassured jump at the last. However, that would spell the end of his race and he was passed by three rivals before reaching the finish line. Albert Camus ran a good couple of stones below his flat best and while he has the credentials to leave this form well behind, this season's better races look beyond his compass at this juncture. 103

    Gamigin ran with credit in his first two outings on the flat at Leopardstown and Naas back in April. However, he failed to build on that promise and while he was able to get off the mark on his final start in that sphere, that win came in a modest ten furlong Sligo claimer after which he was bought for €10,000. New trainer James McAuley has had a winner in the sphere from four, and while Dark Angel is no better than fair overall, Gamigin is a nephew of two winning hurdlers and the cousin of another. Unfancied in the market, Gamigin was never far away from the front and took a share of the lead at the distance. However, that would be the extent of his effort and he faded to finish just over five lengths behind in fifth. His cause was not helped by his wandering into the last three hurdles, particularly not at two out where he barely took off. His earlier jumping was not much better either and this would be an area where he would have to improve. Gamigin was not disgraced on his hurdling debut, but given his poor hurdling and inconsistency on the flat, it remains to be seen if he can build on this effort. 100

    Virtual Hug was twice placed on the flat, although he never ran beyond a mile in that sphere and had a tendency to pull in his races. Withdrawn from his intended hurdling debut at Ballinrobe due to the ground being on the soft side of good, he was largely unconsidered in the market here. Running in a first time tongue tie, he went straight into the lead where he raced freely, but jumped adequately for much of the contest. His first error came at three out where he was steady and stumbled on landing. From here, he found himself challenged for the lead and while he would still be pitching at the last, his untidy jumping told that he was running on empty and he would fade to an eight length sixth by the line. This was not a bad introduction, but his stamina is rather suspect at this juncture and while this can improve with maturity, he may require sharper tests to be seen to good effect in the near future. 98

    Whyzzat won Roscommon's seasonal curtain raiser at the start of the month and although it was not tremendous form, it was solid enough to give him a live chance here. However, his trainer has been going through a lean patch and there was little confidence in the market as he drifted from 9/2 in the morning to 11/1 at the off. He had jumped well on his hurdling debut and there was no cause for complaint in his round here either as he took each flight without mishap. Nor was there anything wrong with the way he travelled as he settled well just behind the leaders and was always close enough if good enough. While improvement between first and second outings would generally be a given, it would be an exaggeration to describe this as a flop as he was only a few pounds below his Roscommon performance. Trainer form might be the most plausible explanation although it could also be that he was feeling the effects of this being his thirteenth race of the year. 103

    Lunar Power, representing a Noel Meade yard coming off a fine season in the division, was his trainer's highest rated recruit of the new campaign to the tune of over a stone. His mark of 72 was the result of win at Dundalk in April followed by a succession of second placings in handicaps at Leopardstown and Galway over distances between thirteen and fifteen furlongs. Sire Power had a strong winner to runner rate in the sphere of 33.33%, and a remarkable improvement rate of 85.71%. Half-brother Mariners Moon was only a modest winning chaser, but he is a cousin of useful winner Red Force One along with Zoffany who is a good sire in the division. Such a profile saw Lunar Power backed into second favouritism, but his performance can only be regarded as disappointing. Held up in the rear, he was slow when hopping over the first and very steady at the second. Although his hurdling tidied up over the next few, his progress through the field was leisurely and his being big and skewed over three out only added to his task. Plugging on in the closing stages to get within nine lengths of the winner, Lunar Power shaved very much like he would be suited by a more demanding test of stamina. However, since his decent flat form came on good ground, it is yet to be established whether he can get by on soft ground, or will need distances unavailable to him prior to the new year. 97

    Alice Kitty was well fancied ahead of her hurdling debut at Roscommon where she was making her first appearance since being claimed out of Jessica Harrington's yard for €5,000. However, she took a real clattering when falling at the first and would make it no further at the second time of asking when (softly) unseating at Killarney. These experiences saw her sent off at 22/1 here and racing in the rear, she was steady at the first. Slow jumping would repeat itself on numerous occasions and while she passed a few beaten horses in the straight, she never threatened to make an impression. Unless she is able to gain confidence over hurdles, Alice Kitty may be better served by a return to the flat. 84

    Grey Angel was another representative of Noel Meade, but had little flat form as a two-year-old and jumped poorly on her first appearance of 2021 at Roscommon where she was well beaten. Starting at 150/1, she raced towards the rear of midfield. While she was big and slightly skewed at the first and wandered into the fourth, her jumping was better this time around. She was also baulked at the second and fifth before making minor headway in the closing stages. This was an improvement on her debut outing, but the performance merely matches her modest two-year-old form and she still has plenty to find going forward. 83

    Supposedtobe failed to win on the flat, but went into his hurdling debut at Killarney with decent credentials and was not disgraced in finishing third to Feigh. Though he drifted through the day's exchanges, he was subject to some support in the ring being clipped from 10/1 to 7/1. Settled well enough in mid division, he was steady and tight over the first and got close to the second, but otherwise hurdled reasonably well. He was still in the leading bunch turning for home but completely downed tools under pressure and weakened to a seventeen length eleventh crossing the line. Supposedtobe has the ability to be competitive in the sphere, but his attitude thus far has been far from encouraging. 88

    Erikson is a cousin of capable hurdlers Wajaaha and Taaresh, but he fetched only 3,500 guineas at the Gainsborough dispersal at the Tattersalls February sale and showed next to nothing on his sole flat outing earlier in the month. Sent off at 125/1, he was held up towards the rear and jumped slowly throughout before finishing tired. 73

    Burren Shore was making his racecourse debut here and while trainer Stuart Crawford has yet to have a winner in the sphere, his charge was not completely unfancied at 20/1. Sire Moohaajim's sole previous juvenile hurdler was the winning Recent Revelations, granddam Dochas won a maiden hurdle as a four-year-old before producing the fair Crystal Earth, while 2002 Triumph winner Scolardy appears at 5/3 on the damline. However, none of these genetic credentials would make an appearance here. Sent off into a prominent position, Burren Shore raced freely, wandered and stumbled at the first, was untidy over the second and fourth, got in close to the next two and his jumping completely fell apart over the last couple of flights. His position had been lost with half a mile left to run and he was ultimately beaten thirty-seven lengths. Burren Shore may develop with time, but there is no immediate promise on this evidence. 69

    War Thunder began his career with Richard Hannon and if his Sligo third back in May is to be believed, he would not be a forlorn hope in the sphere. However, there is little pointing towards hurdling success in his pedigree and after losing his rider at the first at Killarney, he made another mistake at the next without a rider. Initially held up in midfield here, he managed to get baulked over the first three while also jumping big by his own volition. Dropping to the rear, his hurdling did not gain fluency for a clearer path and he was labouring a long way out before beating just one rival home. 64

    Guest was tailed off on his sole start as a two-year-old, and since left Ken Condon to join a yard that has yet to have a winner in the sphere from two. Unfancied on his hurdling debut at Roscommon, he was detached after getting badly hampered at the first and pulled up before halfway. Sent off the rank outsider here, he raced prominently and though he was fresh, there was little wrong with his hurdling. However, he was losing his position four furlongs from home and after getting hampered at three out, came home in his own time. Guest is probably better than this, but he has not shown enough to be competitive any time soon. 45

    Comment


    • #62
      Nice one Kotkijet and sorry to hear about your situation, I hope things improve for you in the very near future

      Comment


      • #63
        Cheers CoD. Things will improve when they are ready to improve. In the meantime, best I can do is plug on and try to maintain something resembling a routine!

        The preview for tomorrow's contest now with bonus tl;dr supplement! If that isn't worth a like/re-tweet/whatever then I don't know what is!

        https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/stat...38916323450884

        Thank you

        Having missed out last term due to the happenings, Lake Worcester is set to host its sole juvenile hurdle of the season tomorrow. Though the race is generally contested by ordinary sorts, Cliffs Of Dover and Chief Justice, winners in 2016 and 2018 respectively, went on to make an impact in graded company. This year's renewal is essentially a maiden contest although the field is headed by a pair who had shown respectable form on their sole outings. A flat, left handed circuit with a long home straight, winning DIs at Worcester are quite inconsistent due to a relatively low sample size. Nevertheless, given the pace that often prevails at the venue, there would appear to be an inclination towards stamina. Furthermore, with the clear round rate of 94.12% being the third lowest in Britain, Worcester can catch out inexperienced sorts. The going is currently described as good and with no rain forecast between now and racing, the ground is being watered to maintain.

        Boulette bg Nigel Hawke f6-0-1 (71) 72
        Epaulette (Tiznow){5-f}(1.00) 0.5 Pari Passu 10th 2m Maiden Hurdle, Kilbeggan 2019
        Nigel Hawke's record in the sphere is a solid one overall with his winner runner rate of 19.30% essentially matching the standard. However, when sourcing his juveniles from Jim Bolger, that record increases to five winners from eight including all three scoring last term - spearheaded by the useful Historic Heart. Boulette is set to be the first such juvenile making said switch to appear this term and his flat form is the strongest available in this line-up. Last of six on his sole outing last year, Boulette failed to win in five starts this season, although he has ran consistently and the company he kept justifies a mark that exceeds his BHA rating of 71. He sees his races out well and should have no difficulty getting the trip, although he has been difficult to settle in his latest outings which is never a positive in this sphere. Epaulette has already had a winner and a placed horse in the division this season, but that is the extent of promise in the pedigree as half-brother Pari Passu, his only relative to try hurdling, achieved nothing over jumps. Boulette is still an interesting recruit to the game given his connections and overall flat form, although as his trainer has a first time rate of just 3.57%, and he will want to settle better than he has done recently, he may well come on for the experience.

        Business Flight bg Gary Brown f9-0-1 (48) 66
        Fed Biz (Birdstone){9-f}(2.08) 4/3 Up Jumps A Monster 1st Ky Alta Handicap, Northlands Park 2012
        Starting his career with Robert Cowell, whose former inmates have won none of their eleven races in the sphere, Business Flight put up his best performance when third off 62 in a seven furlong handicap at Newcastle in March. Since then, he finished well beaten at Kempton and Chelmsford, with his form taking a nosedive after changing hands for 9,000 guineas at Tattersalls. Gary Brown has had a couple of winners in the division, but none for nine years and his improvement rate stands at just 20%. The American bred Business Flight has nothing in his pedigree to suggest he might take to jumping and although he has a 4/3 relative called Up Jumps A Monster, that horse never actually raced over hurdles.

        Corporal Jones bc Donald McCain j1-0-1 (-) 87 91
        War Command (Montjeu){3-h}(0.85) 1/0 Bessie Lou 1st 2m1f Mares Maiden Hurdle, Bellewstown 2011
        Costing ?23,000 purchase at last year's Tattersalls Ireland Breeze Up, Corporal Jones went to Market Rasen at the start of August without any previous racecourse experience. His profile was not without substance however as War Command has a couple of winners in the sphere, dam Bessie Lou was a winning hurdler, half-brother Cheeky Rascal won a juvenile hurdle and useful sorts Four Sox (3/1), Joke Dancer (3/1), Singapore Belle (4/1) and Asterion Forlonge (5/4) also appear on the damline. His trainer had already sent Sacre Pierre to make a winning racecourse debut and while not a plunge exactly , Corporal Jones was backed from a morning 7/2 to a steady in-ring 11/4. Understandably for a debutant, Corporal Jones showed signs of greenness, although it was more conspicuous than alarming. He raced keenly while tracking the leaders in the early stages, but had managed to settle better along the back stretch. His jumping was novicey and he made errors of one minor fashion or another at most flights. He was able to follow the winner when he made his move at the distance, but did not have enough to make any real inroads until the final fifty yards where the race was already put to bed. All told, it was a respectable debut effort and though the performance merely places him in the top third of juveniles seen thus far, the expected improvement would make him a threat in ordinary company for his in-form trainer.

        Gavin bg Joe Ponting f6-0-1 (50) 56 j1-0-0 (-) 39 33
        Bated Breath (Montjeu){16-c}(0.71) 2/1 Keys 2nd 2m1f Maiden Hurdle, Aintree 2011
        Prior to his hurdles bow at Stratford last week, Gavin had shown only moderate form on the flat for Rod Millman, although the damline does feature numerous winning jumpers. Completely unfancied in the market, starting at 125/1, he was initially held up in the rear. However, after getting baulked on landing at the second, he became lit up and pulled himself into a clear lead. He stumbled on the path approaching the third, but was able to recover in time to get over the flight safely enough and his jumping was reasonable from there. However, his exertions had taken their toll by the penultimate flight and he weakened rapidly before being the last to finish. There were some positives to be drawn from his speed and generally safe and sage jumping, although he could not be approached with optimism going forward on the basis of that performance or his overall profile.

        Keepyourdreamsbig bg Olly Murphy j1-0-1 (-) 86 97
        Vision d'Etat (Enrique){4-r}(0.78) 1/0 Take This Waltz 1st Prix D'Essai Des Pouliches, Enghien 2011
        Very similar to Corporal Jones, Keepyourdreamsbig made his first racecourse appearance in a juvenile hurdle this term, is out of a winning jumper, and ran a promising second on his introduction. A representative of Vision d'Etat's final crop, a sire with a very good record in the sphere, he is also a nephew of Prix Aguado fifth Great Shudder along with three other winners. Passing the Tattersalls Ireland ring for €25,000 as a yearling, Keepyourdreamsbig was the first unraced newcomer to represent Olly Murphy - a trainer with a fair 16.67% winner to runner rate in the sphere. Despite taking on two previous winners, he was not without support at Uttoxeter five weeks ago, starting at 6/1 having opened at 10/1. Held up in touch, he made his move on the turn for home and appeared to be travelling the strongest at the distance - trading at 1.2 in-running. However, while he loomed alongside Burristo, it took him most of the run-in to finally get his measure by which time subsequent Cartmel winner Sacre Pierre had already flown. Though his jumping was safe, it did lack the winner's neatness as he was prone to giving his flights more air than necessary. Nevertheless, this is an issue which ought to resolve itself with experience and having shown enough tenacity to win the battle for second, a race of this nature should be well within his scope. However, while his form was already the strongest before receiving its recent boost, Olly Murphy's charges were in good nick at the time. With the yard currently going through a lean spell, his prospects are a little less clear cut.

        Nazwa bg Oliver Sherwood f1-0-0 (-) 60 j1-0-0 (-) 71 68
        Sepoy (Authorized){9-e}(0.63) 2/1 Nisaal 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (80), Sedgefield 2012
        Oliver Sherwood is not renowned for his juvenile hurdlers, although he is perfectly capable of training them as his 39.39% winner to runner rate attests. Nazwa, who shaped with promise on his sole flat outing for David Simcock back in February, was easy to back ahead of his hurdles bow at Stratford in late July. He raced mostly in the rear and made only minor headway on the approach to the home turn. Several novicey errors were posted during his round and while he is entitled to come on for the experience, more will be needed in the short term.

        Vunipola bg Emma Lavelle f2-0-0 (-) 68
        Vadamos (Marju){1-n}(0.50) 2/1 Vorashann 1st 2m1?f Handicap Hurdle (116), Fontwell 2020
        Another trainer more noted for her exploits outside of the division, Emma Lavelle has gotten her fair share of winners and she enjoyed particular success in the 2000s with Bouggler and Crack Away Jack. However, juvenile hurdling has taken a backseat at Bonita Racing Stables and the last time one of hers found the winner's enclosure was in April 2017. Her first runner this term is set to be Vunipola who ran twice for Brian Meehan at the backend of last year. Having already had a wind operation prior to his debut, Vunipola ran with credit in finishing just over three lengths fifth at Kempton over a mile, but would not build on that effort at Lingfield on New Year's Eve and been absent ever since. Former inmates of Brian Meehan's win their fair share in the sphere, and there is some encouragement in the pedigree. Sire Vadamos is already off the mark with his first crop and while classy flat stayer Vazirabad is the most famous relative, winning hurdlers Vorashann (2/1) and Visibility (3/1) are also close on the damline. Vunipola's overall profile makes him a fairly interesting recruit, although it is not the most substantial and he has quite a bit to prove in this company after an eight month break.

        Dark Motive bf Jamie Snowden f6-0-1 (58) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 72 69
        Motivator (Zamindar){16-c}(1.07) 3/1 Prospect Wells 1st National Spirit Hurdle (G2), Fontwell 2013
        Following a six race flat career without a win, Dark Motive made the switch to a jumps yard without changing ownership, despite a falling handicap mark. Previously with Ralph Beckett, former residents of Kimpton Down Stables have a respectable winners to runners rate of 28%, although neither of the pair who ended up with Jamie Snowden managed to win as juveniles. A daughter of Motivator, whose juveniles count twelve winners from thirty-six, her third dam produced three useful sorts in Prospect Wells, Brooklyn's Gold and Old Way. However, the trainer's record in the sphere is less compelling as only three of his twenty juveniles have been winners, with none of them scoring prior to January. Steady in the market ahead of her jumps bow at Stratford, she raced in midfield, made numerous errors during the contest and did not have the pace to get involved. Ultimately beaten twenty-seven lengths, if Dark Motive is to become competitive in the sphere, it is more likely to be further down the road than any time soon.

        Free Degrees rof Sarah-Jayne Davies f3-0-0 (37) 39 j2-0-0 (-) 61 67
        Free Eagle (Verglas){5-g}(0.65) 4/1 Englishtown 1st 2m5?f Handicap Hurdle (120), Southwell 2009
        Showing little on the flat during three outings prior to this February, Free Degrees has fared no better during two attempts over hurdles. Racing keenly and prominently at both Uttoxeter and Stratford, she made errors and faded some way out on each occasion.

        Sentilly bf Alexandra Dunn f2-0-0 (-) 6 j2-0-0 (-) 49 46
        Air Chief Marshal (Elusive City){16-g}(1.40) 1/1 Saint Contest 3rd Juvenile Hurdle, Newbury 2016
        Twice beaten by over thirty lengths on the flat during the winter, Sentilly's hurdles campaign has started no better. Her jumping was novicey at both Newton Abbot and Stratford and while she improved between outings, she still finished tired last time when beaten by fifty-one lengths.

        TL;DR
        Boulette - Horses who join Nigel Hawke from Jim Bolger's have a strong record, and his flat form is the strongest in the contest. However, patchy pedigree, an inability to settle and trainer's first-time strike rate are not encouraging.
        Business Flight - Regressive on flat and American pedigree offers no respite.
        Corporal Jones - Green on racecourse debut at Market Rasen but put up respectable performance in the context of this race. About half-a-stone to find with Keepyourdreamsbig but yard is in better form.
        Gavin - Moderate on flat but not unfeasibly bred for the sphere. While he jumped smartly on his hurdles debut, he was ultimately well beaten and has lots to find on form.
        Keepyourdreamsbig - Out of a good juvenile hurdler in France and made promising racecourse debut at Uttoxeter behind Sacre Pierre. That form has since been boosted but the yard could be in better form.
        Nazwa - Lightly raced having had just one start under either code. Shown promise on each outing but still a bit to find with the leading contenders.
        Vunipola - Promise on debut at Kempton last November and pedigree is not without merit. Joins a yard capable of performing in the division but has not won in the sphere for over four years.
        Dark Motive - Regressive on flat and trainer yet to train a winning juvenile before January. Made numerous errors when well beaten on hurdles debut.
        Free Degrees - No worthwhile form on flat or hurdles.
        Sentilly - Even less in the way of worthwhile form.

        Strong prospects
        1. Corporal Jones
        Reasonable prospects
        2. Keepyourdreamsbig
        Feasible prospects
        3. Boulette
        4. Nazwa
        5. Vunipola
        Moderate prospects
        6. Dark Motive
        Negligible prospects
        7. Gavin
        8. Free Degrees
        9. Business Flight
        10. Sentilly

        Comment


        • #64
          Preview review
          Corporal Jones was initially given the strong prospects. However, the split between himself and Keepyourdreamsbig was due to the relative form of their trainers and those who were able to catch my updates will have seen that Olly Murphy's earlier winner probably tipped the balance in the favour of the latter. While it initially appeared that the noted greenness of Corporal Jones manifested during the closing stages, allowing Boulette to take second, it emerged that he returned lame on his near-fore which would explain his leaning during the closing stages. Boulette was the next best prospect due to the Bolger/Hawke connection and if one takes Vunipola out of the equation, the rest of the field finished according to the prospects list. Taking this race in isolation, I can only be pleased that the processes that went into the preview worked out rather well. Nevertheless, this does not change the immutable fact that I am not a tipster...

          Race review
          Though this was effectively a maiden contest, decent potential was brought into the race by the two experienced market leaders while a couple of newcomers brought flat form sufficient to win a race of this nature. The field travelled well enough for the most part and while the quality of jumping was not exceptional, it was respectable for the kind of contest. Unusually for Worcester, the pace was quite sedate. The winning time was quicker than that of the novice hurdle on the card, although that race began at a crawl and its sectionals were marginally faster throughout. The field was still bunched up entering the straight, but they were spread out well enough by the line and the positions were filled by those entitled to be there. However, while the form looks acceptable for what it is, that the runner-up will have been suited by a stronger pace and looks sure to improve, and the third finished the race lame, it can not be said with confidence that these placings would be replicated in a rerun a few months down the line. Notwithstanding, juvenile hurdlers who come out of contests at Worcester go on to have a strike rate of 16.47% during the remainder of the season which places the course behind only Aintree and Ascot, and just ahead of Cheltenham. The winners' subsequent strike rate of 42.31% is the highest in Britain and Ireland. It is prudent to account for a comparatively small sample size that is skewed heavily by prolific winners Cliffs Of Dover and Chief Justice. Nevertheless, excluding that pair, the subsequent strike rate of 12.18% is still above average so it would be no surprise to see this race throw up a few winners over the coming months.

          Keepyourdreamsbig, bred very much to be a juvenile hurdler, came into this contest on the back of a promising second to recent Cartmel winner Sacre Pierre at Uttoxeter. That performance already set the clear form standard prior to Sacre Pierre's subsequent success. Trainer Olly Murphy had been going through a lean spell in the interim, but with the yard scoring at Uttoxeter earlier in the day, there was more confidence in his charge here who displaced Corporal Jones at the top of the market. Taking the lead early, albeit at a sedate tempo, he jumped more neatly than on his debut with the only criticisms being that he was somewhat big and skewed over the third and slightly tight at the fourth, two out and the last where he was bumped on the approach. Injecting more pace turning for home, he was challenged up the straight by Corporal Jones until his rival went slightly lame; and after leaving him behind on the run-in, had built up enough of a lead to fend off the fast finishing Boulette by half a length. With more assured hurdling than first time, this marks an improvement of roughly half a dozen pounds and there should be further to come with experience. While still some way off pattern class and far from guaranteed to confirm placings with his two rivals in the future, there is enough about Keepyourdreamsbig's attitude, ability and aptitude to suggest that he is is capable of defying a penalty. 103

          Boulette is the latest in a series of juvenile hurdlers to have joined Nigel Hawke from Jim Bolger; a group which has produced five winners from eight prior to this contest. A six race maiden in Ireland, his performances exceeded his official mark of 71 and he shaped as though stamina would be no concern in this sphere. His new trainer's first time out strike rate is modest and with his yard's charges generally improving with experience, Boulette was slightly uneasy in the market. Sweating up beforehand, Boulette had a habit of pulling on the flat and he raced keenly off the modest pace here. Initially in midfield, he jumped the path crossing the stands, but was soon tracking the pacesetters and was within a couple of lengths of the lead jumping three out. He hurdled well enough save for skewing at the first and slightly reaching at the fourth, although the shift in gears rather caught him off guard as he got close to three out, and while he jumped the last two fine, he was not so quick in getting away from his hurdles. This cost him valuable momentum which exacerbated his lack of pace. He was about six lengths behind at the furlong marker and though able to rally after reorganising himself, he gave himself too much to do and was unable to bridge the gap in time. Given that he shaped like a horse who should come on plenty for the experience, Boulette probably emerges as the one to take out of this race and if he finds suitable conditions, he would be of interest over his next few outings. 102

          Corporal Jones, like the winner, came here on the back of a sole outing which saw him finish a promising second in a juvenile hurdle. Initially installed as clear favourite, he drifted out to 9/4 in the ring before being clipped back into 15/8 at the off. Conspicuously green at Market Rasen first time, he also made numerous errors on his debut. However, while he was still a bit fresh in the early stages, he had settled before too long and despite getting checked on landing at the first, put in a tidy round of jumping. Tucked in just behind the lead throughout, he was the only one to match the winner's turn of foot entering the straight and jumped the penultimate flight with a marginal lead. However, he stumbled on landing which is where he probably picked up his reported lameness on his near-fore. Drifting to his left on the approach to the last, he bumped into his rival and was skewed going over the flight. While he bravely renewed his challenge on the run-in, his being steered to a straight line ended his momentum and he finished the race a couple of lengths behind the winner. Had Corporal Jones not stumbled on landing at two out, where he was trading at 1.27, it is quite likely he would have won the race. He is certainly capable of winning a race of this nature if this experience does not leave a mark. It is hoped that the injury is none too serious and he is able to make a full recovery before too long. 101

          Nazwa, whose previous experience counted one run under either code, had shown some promise without troubling the leaders when finishing fifth on each of his outings. He raced in the rear when last seen at Stratford and did the same here. Nevertheless, apart from getting close to the sixth, his hurdling was much better on this occasion. Nazwa brought up the rear of remaining pack turning for home and rather than making up any real ground, he merely improved his position by virtue of his rivals dropping away. A couple of lengths was made on the run-in, but he never looked a threat before finishing just under four lengths behind in fourth. Notwithstanding, this marks a new career best in Nazwa's short career and another respectable effort in similar company would not be beyond him. 99

          Dark Motive had been regressive on the flat and although she is bred to hold her own in this sphere, her debut effort at Stratford was rather tepid. Subject to support during the day, starting at 7/1 having been 14/1 earlier, she raced more prominently than she had first time. There were less errors this time around although she was still very untidy at the first and got in close when ridden into the fourth before jumping left at two out. Though still travelling well rounding the bend, she found herself outpaced at the top of the home straight and was labouring from thereon. It was reported that she had lost her right-fore shoe, although it is difficult to guess how badly this affected her performance. Dark Motive ran to a better level of form than first time, but she is still some way off her flat best and she may need a fair handicap mark if she is to be competitive over hurdles. 84

          Gavin was only moderate on the flat for Rod Millman, but there are numerous winning jumpers in the pedigree. He became lit up on his hurdles debut at Stratford and ran out of steam before weakening rapidly. Though James Davies managed to keep him restrained in midfield, he still pulled hard and his jumping was not so tidy this time. He was still amongst the leaders turning for home, but had little left to give and was ultimately beaten by twenty lengths. Gavin is not a completely forlorn hope if he learns to settle, but he will more likely ply his trade in low-grade handicaps whatever happens. 82

          Free Degrees showed little on the flat and the descriptions for her two hurdles outings to date read as "raced keenly and prominently, made errors, faded". With first time cheekpieces applied, it was not too dissimilar on this occasion although she raced closer to midfield here. The mistakes were still there and she lost touch at the turn for home before finishing thirty lengths behind the winner. 66

          Business Flight dropped from a mark of 63 to 48 since the end of March and had nothing in his pedigree to suggest he might be adept in this sphere. Sent off at 200/1 and racing in the rear, he did not jump badly apart from being steady at the fourth and big at the fifth, and more of his impediments came from outside interference. Notwithstanding, he was off the bridle and getting detached before reaching the last in the back and eventually finished tailed off. 50

          Vunipola had not been seen since New Year's Eve but there was some promise on the first of his two outings. His pedigree is not unfeasible either and while he went out to 12/1 from an opening morning show of 6/1, he was steady in the ring and sent off at 17/2. However, he was very fresh on his first outing in eight months and along with making errors at the third, fifth and sixth, would never leave the rear of the field. Vunipola has the potential to do much better on paper, but there is little encouragement to be drawn from this evidence. 40

          Sentilly is a sibling of two who have shown reasonable form in the sphere, but has yet to show anything on either the flat or from two jumps outings. Sent off at 200/1, she started the race prominently, was steep over the first, blundered at the second, lost her position from there, jumped left along the back and was pulled up before reaching the straight. 0

          Comment


          • #65
            Since the long 2021/22 prospects list is already starting to get quite aged, I will be updating it soon. Here's a list of who's already on, who's due an update and who might be added. If there are any horses you would like to see added, or any updates you feel would be useful, please let me know. Thank you

            Comment


            • #66
              Originally posted by Kotkijet View Post
              Since the long 2021/22 prospects list is already starting to get quite aged, I will be updating it soon. Here's a list of who's already on, who's due an update and who might be added. If there are any horses you would like to see added, or any updates you feel would be useful, please let me know. Thank you

              Updating this regularly will prove invaluable K, many thanks for this…

              Comment


              • #67
                Preview for tomorrow's juvenile at Fontwell. The one for Perth should be up before breakfast. Enjoy

                After the cancellation of its mid August meeting, Fontwell hosts its first juvenile hurdle of the season on Sunday. A contest which has been held each year without interruption since 2005, its winners' average seasonal RPR of 111.25 is lower than those generally held at the course (114.71) which itself, is a few pounds lower than the average in the sphere. It has been won by a couple of respectable types in the past decade such as last season's dual listed winner Talking About You, and the eventually smart Vosne Romanee. This year's renewal does not threaten to be anything out of the ordinary, although it does feature the first appearance of a recruit with French jumping experience. Oneonechop heads those with British hurdles form while Tara Iti makes a bid for redemption for a yard that has won this contest on three occasions. Fontwell's clear round rate of 94.88% is in the bottom ten of the country with the figure for newcomers falling to 90.46%. The winning DIs at Fontwell of 1.15 median, 1.41 mean are on the lower side of average with the figures for this contest dropping to 1.06 and 1.36. The going is currently good, good to firm in places, and with no rain expected in the meantime, the course is being watered.

                Kinghenrytheninth bg Ben Clarke f6-0-0 (47) 48
                Heeraat (Whipper){7-f}(1.40) 1/0 Annaluna 1st 2m5?f Handicap Hurdle (97), Exeter 2012
                Ben Clarke has been training pointers for a few seasons and has earned a strike rate of 33% in hunter chases. Granted his NH licence last month, he is set to have his first runner over hurdles in the shape of Kinghenrytheninth. A maiden after six outings for Roger Teal, former inmates of whom are without a winner in the sphere from three, Kinghenrytheninth showed only moderate form on the flat at up to a mile. He was last seen beaten over nine lengths by Sir Taweel in a Windsor handicap off 50 in late April. Sire Heeraat is without a winner from four, although dam Annaluna did win a handicap over twenty-one furlongs as a three-year-old and the likes of Devilment (3/4), Atlaal (4/2) Annie Power (4/3) and Eddiemaurice (4/4) appear on the damline. Notwithstanding, Kinghenrytheninth's form leaves him with a lot to find on his rivals and his tendency to pull and inexperience beyond a mile makes his task a difficult one first time.

                Oneonechop bc David Pipe f19-6-5 (75) 79 j4-0-1 (104) 88 95
                Kheleyf (Captain Chop){16-c}(3.00) 2/1 Kheliana Chope 1st 3550m 4YO Conditions Hurdle, Fontainebleau 2020
                A six time winner in France, Oneonechop's equivalent rating of 79 placed him well above the typical recruit for the time of year. He had faded tamely on his British/hurdling debut at Stratford but finished with much more purpose and was arguably worried out of a better position when third at Newton Abbot on his second outing. Found out by the trip back at Stratford, he ran no kind of race on his return to the flat at Ffos Las, but confirmed himself to be well suited by Newton Abbot when finishing second off 104 in a handicap there a fortnight ago. Slightly keen in the early stages, he fluctuated in racing between mid division and just behind the leaders. He was boxed in on the turn for home, but while unable to make any impression on the easy winner, he outbattled his older opponents in the straight to finish a clear second. His hurdling was very neat for the most part and that performance very much sets the standard here on domestic form. Furthermore, David Pipe's juveniles have a strike rate of 21.43% at this venue and he saddled Talimos to win this contest in 2009. However, for all of the positives in the profile of Oneonechop, the extended trip around a course like Fontwell is unlikely to play to his strengths.

                Risky Business chg Martin Smith f5-0-0 (40) 47 j1-0-0 (-) 10 9
                Mastercraftsman (Dream Ahead){4-g}(2.33) 3/1 Laurel Seeker 1st 2m Handicap Hurdle (100), Hereford 1998
                Though a son of the prolific Mastercraftsman, Risky Business had little else going for him going into his jumps bow at Stratford eight weeks ago. Representing a trainer without a winner in this sphere, his best effort on the flat was a five length fifth off 46 in a Yarmouth handicap. Though he briefly showed in a prominent position in the early stages, Risky Business soon lost his place after a series of cautious jumps and was struggling from the fourth. He completed in his own time and it was reported that he lost a shoe.

                Sir Taweel bg Neil King f8-1-0 (60) 64 j1-0-0 (-) 53 53
                Sir Prancealot (Duke Of Marmalade){8-f}(0.85) 3/1 Big Occasion 2nd Scottish Grand National (132), Ayr 2013
                The first representative of the season for Neil King, Sir Taweel won a mile handicap on the flat off 56 for Mohamed Moubarak in April and while he failed to progress from there, his trainer and pedigree suggests he can find his level in this sphere. The yard has a solid winner to runner rate of 31.91% with juvenile hurdlers and has won three from twelve at this venue. Sir Prancealot has had just the one winner from ten thus far, but the damline includes good jumpers such as Big Occasion (3/1), Forgotten Voice (3/1) and Aigle Royal (4/2). However, he did not make the most compelling of hurdling debuts at Stratford a fortnight ago as he did not leave the rear of the field until passing tailed off rivals after the race had finished as a contest. His cause was hindered by the hurdles he encountered early on and while he can not be blamed for getting badly baulked on landing at the first, his being very steady and close at the second, and big and ungainly at the third, were his own doing. The yard's charges typically improve with experience and while Sir Taweel accomplished very little first time, he would not be a forlorn hope just yet. Nevertheless, although he can be expected to at least improve from his debut, the yard is not in a good vein of form at the moment and any improvement would have to be quite dramatic in order to challenge the principals here.

                Tara Iti chg Gary Moore f6-1-0 (62) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
                Sixties Icon (Sir Percy){9-c}(0.78) 3/1 Prince Of India 1st 2m?f Maiden Hurdle, Taunton 1998
                Despite fetching just 17,500 guineas at the Tattersalls online sale back in May, Tara Iti has a profile which arguably exceeds the price tag. His sire, Sixties Icon, has a solid winners to runners rate of 19.05%, with 55.56% of his juveniles improving for the switch in codes, and his progeny has a healthy strike rate of 16.44% between June and December. Gary Moore also has a compelling record in the sphere with a winner/runner rate of 33.82%, an above-average improvement rate of 47.11%, and a strike rate at Fontwell of 27.91% with three scoring in this particular contest. One from six for Ed Dunlop on the flat, Tara Iti's sole win came in a heavy ground mile nursery at Leicester off a mark of 60. He had not quite built on that performance on his first two outings this term and while he was supported ahead of his hurdling debut at Newton Abbot in early July, he was most disappointing on that occasion. Usually awkward on the flat, he was already agitated prior to the off and his being held up from the start further compounded his fate. Refusing to settle and further lit up in the early stages, Tara Iti was badly baulked at the first and almost unseated at the second. From there, he was never travelling with any ease or jumping with any fluency. Getting detached after the first in the back, he was pulled up before the straight. It later emerged that he burst a blood vessel, although Tara Iti looked destined for a poor performance from the outset. Tara Iti was last seen at Brighton a month ago where, stepping up to ten furlongs, he spent most of the contest trying to detach his riders arms from their sockets. He would finish last of six, but was beaten by less than three lengths which at least indicated a return to form. Gary Moore has a habit of winning juvenile hurdles at Fontwell and his charges can often exceed market expectations. Tara Iti is certainly capable of running a big race although his debut performance and general temperament would still be matters of concern.

                Ramure bf Stuart Edmunds j3-0-0 (57.0 - 125.4) 90 96
                Maresca Sorrento (Blue Bresil){9-c}(0.33) 2/1 Ocean's Wind 1st 3900m 4yo hurdle, Saint Malo 2016

                The first of this season's juvenile hurdlers imported from France is the thrice raced maiden Ramure. She made her racecourse bow on the first of June in Compiegne’s Prix du Grand Maitre – a debutant contest won in the past by the likes of Analifet, Triana du Berlais and Cicalina. Sent off the outsider of the field, Ramure jumped reasonably well, but was firmly beaten when getting brought down at the penultimate flight. Nine days later, she reappeared at Dieppe where she jumped well enough in a prominent position, but weakened tamely on leaving the back stretch and ultimately finished tailed off. Taking a step up in class on her return to Compiegne, she put up another mostly sound round of hurdling and was still in a fighting position entering the straight before losing touch on the approach to the last, finishing just over eighteen lengths behind the winner. Patrice Lenogue has been responsible for three juveniles in the UK thus far with a winner coming in the form of David Pipe’s €140,000 Hexham hero Great Tempo. Sire Maresca Sorrento has yet to have a winner from six juveniles outside of France, but he has gotten his fair share of winning juveniles in his native country. The dam failed to win over jumps but is a sibling of a Saint Malo winner, and top class sorts in Tamarindo (3/1), Sun Storm (3/1) and Djakadam (3/2) descend from the third dam. The most intriguing part of Ramure’s profile is her joining Stuart Edmunds, whose winner to runner rate of 50% in the division is bettered only by Henderson, Mullins and Nicholls. Ramure’s performances currently warrant a mark not exceeding the high 90s which is a far cry from the 125 suggested by her valeur. All the same, she will be her underrated trainer’s first recruit from the French jumping circuit and as he has already had a runner-up in the sphere this term, it will be interesting to see what he can achieve with this mostly fluent hurdler.

                The Yellow Mini bf Michael Wigham f14-0-1 (45) 53
                Cannock Chase (Primo Valentino){22-d}(1.00) 2/2 Arakhan 1st 2m4f Novices' Hurdle, Aintree 2019
                Canadian International winner Cannock Chase has yet to have a runner over jumps. His sire, Lemon Drop Kid, has a decent winner to runner rate of 38.46% in the sphere and with a DI of 0.82 and a height of 16.1hh, Cannock Chase has reasonable credentials for the sphere. His first juvenile hurdler is set to be The Yellow Mini who has had fourteen starts on the flat without a win to her name. Racing under the care of Polly Gundry until late July, The Yellow Mini ran her best race four outings ago when finishing three quarters of a length second in a Bath handicap off 45. She was 80/1 that day and no effort either side has matched that performance. The damline has plenty who have tried hurdling, although only Arakhan (2/2) and Empire Park (3/1) were able to score in the discipline. Michael Wigham has had two winning juveniles from fourteen, but has not participated in the sphere since November 2016 and is without any jumps winner since May 2018.

                tl;dr
                Kinghenrytheninth - First hurdles runner for new trainer. Damline has hints of promise but poor flat form and tendency to pull set a difficult task.

                Oneonechop - Flat winner in France who jumps well and has good form at Newton Abbot. However, has been found out by the trip at Stratford and is uncertain to fully see out this contest.

                Risky Business - His being by Mastercraftsman is the only positive in his profile. His flat form is poor and he jumped too cautiously when well beaten on his hurdles bow.

                Sir Taweel - Fair winner on flat. Trainer does well in sphere and there are good jumpers on the damline. Accomplished little on his hurdling debut and while he can improve, yard is not in good form.

                Tara Iti - Good profile for the sphere and flat form is respectable in this company. Trainer does well at the venue but Tara Iti disappointed on hurdling debut and temperament remains a large concern.

                Ramure - Unplaced in three outings over hurdles in France. Mostly a fluent jumper, form is still credible in the context of this race and trainer has a good record in the sphere.

                The Yellow Mini - Fourteen race maiden on the flat with rating of 45. Feasible prospects on breeding and trainer has been capable in past, although not to the to offset the negatives in the profile.

                Strong prospects
                1. Ramure
                Reasonable prospects
                2. Oneonechop
                3. Tara Iti
                Feasible prospects
                4. Sir Taweel
                Moderate prospects
                5. Kinghenrytheninth
                Negligible prospects
                6. The Yellow Mini
                7. Risky Business

                Comment


                • #68
                  Perth

                  Scotland's first juvenile hurdle of the season takes place tomorrow and is the resurrection of a contest that was held at Perth three times between 2014 and 2016. The field sizes for those editions were three, three and five; although while only five are set to face the starter here, there are only two races on the card with a larger number of runners. Juvenile hurdles overlooked by Scone Palace are generally modest affairs with their average winners' seasonal RPR of 110.77 being the eleventh lowest in the country. The Wallace Line, who won this race in 2014, was the best graduate from this contest - going on to finish third in the Finale. Ski Sunday and Orsippus are other decent juveniles to have ran here before the winter. This year's renewal looks fairly ordinary but it should be competitive as the placed hurdles form is of a respectable standard and the newcomers have flat ratings sufficient to be capable at this level. A flat, right handed circuit, Perth's easy configuration and generally firmer ground contribute to higher DIs than average of 1.50 median, and 1.58 mean. The clear round rate of 98.12% is the fifth highest in Britain and is also one of the kinder tracks for hurdling newcomers. The going is currently good with only slim prospects of rainfall during the morning.

                  Boundsy Boy bg Oliver Greenall f3-0-0 (60) 62 j3-0-2 (100) 85 91
                  Awtaad (Diktat){21-a}(1.25) 2/1 Majestic Sun 6th 2m Novices' Handicap Hurdle (97), Plumpton 2015
                  Fetching just 1,500 guineas when leaving Richard Fahey for Oliver Greenall last Autumn, Boundsy Boy ran with credit when an eleven length second to Koi Dodville at Aintree after a break of 309 days. His jumping had been acceptable and though the form is moderate, he was entitled to improve for his first outing after a long absence and surgeries to his wind and tackle. This is just what he did a month later at Stratford. Sent straight into the lead from flagfall, Boundsy Boy got in quite close to the first, but though he was by no means slick, he was competent enough from there until the penultimate flight where he was low and untidy. Joined at the top of the straight, he was unable to regain the lead despite having the rail to help. Nevertheless, he did not capitulate without a fight. His official mark of 103 looked harsh ahead of his handicap debut at Bangor twelve days ago and surrounded by more mature horses, his jumping also suffered as he was less nimble and made a couple of careless errors. Racing in the rear, he made some headway along the back, but made no impression from three out and would finish thirty-one lengths behind the winner. Boundsy Boy should appreciate this return to juvenile company and with his Stratford form being just about the strongest on offer over hurdles, he can give a good account of himself.

                  Don't Look Back grg Lucinda Russell f7-0-1 (64) 69
                  Oasis Dream (Kirkwall){14-c}(1.91) 2/1 Sleepy Hollow 5th Mersey Novices' Hurdle 2010
                  Local-ish trainer Lucinda Russell does get winning juveniles and although her overall record is just below average, half of her winners did so first time out. Her first runner in the sphere for this campaign is Don't Look Back who left Richard Hughes for 11,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July sale. Though he failed to score in seven outings, Don't Look Back has run consistently and his rating of 64 is a fair reflection of his ability. However, he has been awkward under pressure and of Richard Hughes's nine former inmates in the sphere, none have won or even improved on their flat exploits. Oasis Dream has one of the poorest records in the division with a winner runner rate of 6.67%, and an improvement rate of just 5.26%. The damline is more promising however as uncle Sleepy Hollow was a good novice hurdler and cousin Fiveandtwenty was a useful juvenile hurdler last term. Furthermore, Don't Look Back is a full brother to Gale Force Ten whose record as a sire in this sphere is three winners from eight with an improvement rate of 80%. The overall profile of Don't Look Back is something quite akin to the curate's egg as although there is enough merit to make him an interesting recruit, there are a couple of elements which destabilise his case in this company.

                  Moneykenny grg Olly Murphy f5-1-1 (65) 70 j2-0-1 (-) 87 90
                  Kendargent (Kheleyf){14-c}(1.22) 2/1 Blinka Me 92 1st 2m3f Handicap Hurdle (82), Sedgefield 2012
                  After leaving Andrew Balding for 26,000 guineas at the Tattersalls May sale, Moneykenny looked to have solid prospects ahead of his hurdling debut at Newton Abbot in early July. A 65 rated winner on the flat, his breeding and training connections suggested he should at least match his flat ability in time. However, he was very keen in the early stages and jumped the first with little fluency - wandering on the approach and jumping big and markedly to his right. Though his jumping would settle down over the next couple, he was still more than a handful for Aidan Coleman, keeping a keen grip passing the stands. Nevertheless, he still had enough energy to move into the lead turning for home and traded as low as 1.1 in-running. However, he landed steeply at the penultimate flight and got in very tight at the last before relinquishing the lead near the finish. Returning to the venue a fortnight later, he was weighted to come out on top. However, despite opening in the ring at 11/10, he drifted out to 5/2 and ran accordingly. Racing in touch on the inside, he was cautious over the first two and never really settled into a solid rhythm. While he was slightly baulked on landing at the penultimate flight, his race was already run by that stage. There was no explanation offered for this performance. He makes his return after a seven week absence but with his yard landing a double earlier in the week, his ability gives him some chance. Although given that he is prone to inconsistency, it remains to be seen if he is able to run to his potential.

                  New Reality bg Nigel Hawke f6-1-0 (81) 86
                  New Approach (Teofilo){5-f}(0.60) 2/1 Novis Adventus 1st 2m4f Handicap Hurdle (119), Worcester 2018
                  The passage between the yards of Jim Bolger and Nigel Hawke was covered earlier in the week when Boulette ran at Worcester. While Nigel Hawke's record in the sphere is respectable in and of itself, it becomes quite impressive when taking former Bolger horses in isolation. Five from eight such horses had been winners prior to Wednesday and Boulette came very close to making it six from nine when let down by a lack of experience. The latest animal cut from this cloth is New Reality who, with a flat mark of 81, is also the highest rated of this particular class. After failing to breach the front nine in a couple of outings last November, New Reality finished a respectable sixth on his return at Cork in first time tongue tie. He broke his duck next time when winning a Tipperary maiden over an extended twelve furlongs on yielding ground. Tracking the leader from the outset, he was getting shoved along with three furlongs left to race. Nevertheless, despite looking green under pressure, he stuck to his task well and managed to get his head in front in the shadow of the post. Four subsequent winners have since come out of that contest and the form took a large boost when the runner-up had six future winners behind when winning a Navan maiden by eleven lengths. New Reality stepped down in trip by a couple of furlongs at Naas next time and though not disgraced in finishing a five length fourth to Benaud, he did find himself rather flat footed. He was last seen in the Ulster Derby back in June where he ran no kind of race on the good ground and finished detached. Sire New Approach has a strong record in the division with a winner to runner rate of 38.10%, and cousin Novis Adventus (also by New Approach) was a useful handicap hurdler. New Reality has much the strongest form from the flat and while the yard's runners typically improve with experience, this did not prevent Boulette from running a fine race the other day and Nigel Hawke's record with juveniles at Perth stands at two winners from three. However, even if his performance in the Ulster Derby is ignored, New Reality will almost certainly need a much sterner test than is offered tomorrow before reaching his potential in this sphere.

                  Aliomaana chf Milton Harris f5-0-2 (74) 75 j1-0-1 (-) 87 86
                  Raven's Pass (Sea The Stars){8-f}(1.29) 2/1 Celestial Force 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (120), Newton Abbot 2021
                  Though winless after five outings for John Gosden, Aliomaana's rating of 74 is in the eightieth percentile for flat recruits in the division. She twice managed to grab second in a pair of all-weather maidens over ten furlongs at Wolverhampton and Chelmsford. At the former, she was no match for subsequent Oaks fourth Save A Forest, but did grab her second from a subsequent winner and was behind another subsequent winner in Percy's Pride at Chelmsford. That would be her last start for John Gosden before getting knocked down for 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. While former residents of Clarehaven Stables seldom maintain their flat form between codes, Milton Harris was able to get Pyramid Place to win three times last season and Aliomaana looked another promising recruit when third at Stratford last week. Available at 33/1 in the morning, she was eventually backed down to 12/1 by the off and was the only horse to seriously pursue the winner from the outset. Though fairly keen in the early stages, she settled better going on the second circuit. The gap between herself and the leader fluctuated and while she still held second turning into the straight, she had little left and ultimately had to settle for a thirteen length third. Aliomaana did make a few minor errors - namely hopping through some of the earlier jumps, slightly skewing over the fifth and, when probably tired, steadying at the last where she went to her left. Notwithstanding, it was a pleasing debut for the most part and while her tiring late on meant she ran below her flat form, there was enough to build on to suggest she can be more competitive in this discipline - particularly with her sex allowance here.

                  tl;dr
                  Boundsy Boy - Cheap purchase but ran creditably on his first two starts over hurdles. Failed to run to form in Bangor handicap last time but should appreciate the return to novice company.

                  Don't Look Back - Consistent maiden on the flat but has raced awkwardly. Sire has poor record although there are a couple of good novice hurdlers on the damline. Patchy profile overall.

                  Moneykenny - Winner on the flat and not without promise on hurdling debut. Disappointed when last seen seven weeks ago, lacks consistency and has a suspect temperament.

                  New Reality - Much the strongest flat form and represents interesting connections. However, will almost certainly need a much sterner test in order to be seen to best effect.

                  Aliomaana - Placed on flat for John Gosden and ran with promise on hurdles debut at Stratford last week. Tired late on but likely to improve and comes out well at the weights.

                  Strong prospects
                  1. Aliomaana
                  Reasonable prospects
                  2. New Reality
                  3. Boundsy Boy
                  Feasible/Moderate prospects
                  4. Don't Look Back
                  5. Moneykenny

                  Comment


                  • #69
                    Fascinating read Kotkijet,what I know about juvenile hurdlers or any horse for that matter you could write on the back of a stamp but your knowledge and attention to detail is unreal. Surely must be racing publications/websites out there that would love to have your input. Hope that dream job is just around the corner.

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      Most appreciated Johnoman and as always, I am very grateful whenever someone takes the time to read my work

                      My dream job is actually househusband but unfortunately, such a status symbol is not quite fashionable for the modern, middle class, professional woman... Making a living writing about horses or working in some research capacity would still be pretty cool though.

                      If anyone has the time, feels it is deserved and has not yet done so, giving these tweets could go a long way to making these dreams a reality!

                      https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/stat...39055354302472

                      https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/stat...39570150539266

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        Frustrating day for those who followed the strong prospects they traded at 1.54 and 1.22 in-running;- although this should serve as a solid reminder that I am not a tipster

                        Here is the review for the Fontwell contest. The write-up for Perth should be done before breakfast. Enjoy

                        FONTWELL - 5th September - Review
                        Preview review
                        Sometimes, when a horse springs a surprise, there are still clues within a profile which become obvious in hindsight having been overlooked beforehand. Other times, a newcomer becomes so invigorated by its first encounter with hurdles that it greatly surpasses any evidence based expectations. Yesterday's juvenile hurdle at Fontwell appears to be one such instance. The Yellow Mini brought with her a flat rating of just 45 which is the lowest for any winning debutant in the sphere since the 41 rated Egmont took Hexham's curtain raiser in June 2015. Put into context, there have since been 327 juvenile hurdlers rated 50 or lower on the flat with only 49 rated Alohamora winning on her debut at Catterick in February 2018. When looking for other clues, sire Cannock Chase, having his first runner in the sphere, was mentioned as having potential in the discipline but that would not been enough to build a case. Timeform's smart stats flagged up Gavin Sheehan's record at Fontwell and his eight rides on juveniles at the venue have resulted in two wins, a second and three thirds. While again, this would not have necessarily offset the rating, his fine judgement of pace and the conscientious in which he introduced The Yellow Mini to her hurdles was certainly a factor in her success and probably earns an early nomination for ride of the season. Trainer Michael Wigham rarely participates in these contests, but has sent out two juveniles to win first time with 43 rated Parsley's Return winning a Ludlow seller in December 2005, and 61 rated Skylark Lady taking the aforementioned Hexham contest in 2016. Beyond these factors, that the remainder of the field all had questions to answer which increased the likelihood of a surprise result, although hindsight is a wonderful thing. Taking The Yellow Mini out of the race, the completed field did so in precisely the same order as the prospects lists with Oneonechop's lack of stamina and Tara Iti's temperament proving themselves in the race. Nevertheless, this will offer scant consolation to the backers of Ramure; even though nothing written here ever is in any way advisory!

                        Race review
                        Several of these came into the race with feasible prospects but only two ran anywhere close to form. The quality of jumping was not brilliant and though the front two pulled well clear, the performances of those behind can be readily disregarded. Notwithstanding, most of the runners did settle well enough and as well as going a solid yet sensible gallop, the winning time was the quickest of the three over the distance on the card; including the handicap won by a 120 rated horse. As such, while the collateral form is essentially meaningless, the clock does afford the winning performance some substance. Whether the first two placings can be confirmed does not look certain as the runner-up was awkward during her first encounter with real pressure and the winner may struggle to outrun the penalty. Ultimately, the best horse on the day won and that is the most tangible conclusion that can be drawn from this contest.

                        The Yellow Mini was rated just 45 on the flat and her best effort, a second off 45 in a Bath handicap, was followed by three subpar performances. She was the first runner over hurdles for sire Cannock Chase, a stallion with feasible credentials, a cousin of a winning novice hurdler and while trainer Michael Wigham had not had a runner in the sphere since November 2016, he had previously sent out two to win first time. She was not completely unfancied, starting at 16/1, and was ridden with confidence as she disputed the lead from the outset. With the front two racing alongside each other for most of the contest, it was only when her rival began to fade leaving the back that she moved into a clear lead. Ramure managed to get within a length after jumping quicker at two out, but The Yellow Mini kept on doggedly to keep her rival at bay and ran with more purpose on the run-in to cross the line with just over three lengths in hand. While she clearly relished this new discipline, her hurdling was not without its blemishes. Distracted by her rival when making minor errors over the first two, she was slightly big over the third and sixth, steady when clipping the next, was outjumped at two out and went right at the last. Notwithstanding, these errors were not especially to her detriment and it is an area where she can improve with experience. Though unexposed in this discipline with a performance given credence by a respectable time, The Yellow Mini was the beneficiary of a fine ride from Gavin Sheehan along with a lack of fitness and experience from her sole serious adversary. It remains to be seen if she can progress but this should not detract from her exploits here. 100

                        Ramure was the season's first participant with French hurdling form and though she had yet to get within eighteen lengths of a winner in her native country, the form was respectable in the context of this race. She was also the first French import for trainer Stuart Edmunds whose winner runner rate in the sphere is strong, and is adept at getting winners first time out. A drifter during the day though steady enough in the market, Ramure was sent off the 2/1 second favourite. She was ridden with more patience than she had been in France, but made smooth headway along the back and travelled well into a challenging position entering the straight where she traded at 1.54 in-running. Managing to get within a length of the lead jumping the penultimate flight, she was keeping tabs on the winner all the way to the last before said horse jumped in front of her on landing. This forced Ramure to reorganise herself and her inexperience showed when coming under pressure as she wandered, giving the impetus to the winner. Sensibly, she was not given a hard time from there by Ciaran Gethings. Mostly fluent over hurdles in France, she was not quite so smooth over Fontwell's hurdles as she made a mistake at the second, wandered approaching the third and seventh and got very close to the sixth due largely to a lapse in concentration. Nevertheless, Ramure will have learned plenty from this outing and would be the one horse to take out of the contest. While it is hoped that her valeur is not taken into account when she is allotted an official mark, a race of this nature should still be within her range; particularly with more give in the ground. 97

                        Oneonechop was a busy horse in France and has been keep to a regular workload with this being his sixth outing since joining David Pipe in July. His efforts at Newton Abbot set the standard on domestic form and while not immune to minor errors, has mostly shown himself to be a neat and able jumper. Though sent off the 15/8 favourite, stamina had been a concern going into this contest and he ultimately put up his worst performance to date. Tracking the leaders in midfield, his round was littered with mistakes as he was untidy when reaching at the second, reached again at the third, was steady and low at the fourth, clipped the fifth and seventh before clattering his way through two out. Already off the bridle going along the back, he had been left behind before reaching the home straight and a very tired leap at the last confirmed he was a spent force. Ultimately beaten by forty lengths, Oneonechop is most probably due a break. Clearly lacking stamina at the best of times, any return during the winter may have to come on the flat where he is not particularly well treated. Nevertheless, should this performance see his BHA rating drop a few pounds, he would not be out of the reckoning for a small handicap around Newton Abbot come spring time; particularly as he is capable of jumping well enough to be competitive in that kind of contest. 67

                        Tara Iti is bred to make an impact in this sphere and is in the right hands to do so. However, while he has the ability to win races at this level, his temperament is another matter. The Gary Moore yard ran a similar horse in this race last term in Big Jimbo who was well backed during the day and ultimately finished second. Tara Iti was also well backed, starting at 3/1 having opened at 8/1 in the morning. However, after getting warm in the preliminaries, he was pulling extremely hard while being restrained in the rear of the field. His hurdling was also poor as he was steady, big and skewed over his early jumps before moving to steady and slow jumps as the race progressed; with a tendency to also jump to his right. Detached from a long way out, he passed a beaten rival on the run-in but was still tailed off in the end. Tara Iti is proving to be disappointing and unless a pet sheep or something to that effect cheers him up, it might be worth allowing him his head as nothing else seems to be working and he should not want for stamina. 53

                        Sir Taweel was a winner on the flat, is related to decent jumpers and has joined a capable yard; albeit one which is currently out of form. He offered only minor promise on his hurdles debut at Stratford but was backed during the day from 20/1 to 9/1 to do better here. Ridden to dispute the lead, he was slightly cautious over the first two but was clean over the next couple before going through the top of the fifth. He got away from the sixth well enough despite skewing, but after trailing his hind legs through the last in the back, he faded rapidly and his last jumps in the straight were those of a tired horse. Having never raced beyond a mile on the flat, his stamina over hurdles is becoming questionable and he may need a fair amount of time before he develops into something that can be competitive in the sphere. 43

                        Risky Business only has the fact he is by Mastercraftsman going for him in this sphere as he was moderate on the flat and jumped too cautiously on his hurdles debut at Stratford eight weeks earlier. Held up towards the rear, he wandered and hopped over the first two; getting a reminder after the second; did not enjoy the kickback on the bend, was slow over the rest of his hurdles and finished completely tailed off. 16

                        Kinghenrytheninth is out of a winning juvenile but his flat form for Roger Teal is modest at best. Initially racing keenly in midfield, he made errors and jumped right at his first five jumps before pulling up. 0

                        Comment


                        • #72
                          PERTH - 5th September - Review

                          Before I get into the review, I would like to thank Milton Harris for keeping us updated on the wellbeing of his admirable filly Aliomaana. She has returned home in one piece and is doing alright. If anybody is interested, there is an opportunity for ownership in her. Though it would be incredulous of me to suggest that she is guaranteed to win the Wensleydale, Prestbury, the Fillies' race at Aintree, Finale and Finesse before becoming the first four-year-old to win the Champion Hurdle since Forestation in 1942, I certainly wouldn't dissuade anybody from getting involved. She is a genuine and enthusiastic little filly not short of ability and should give connections plenty of fun days out through the season.

                          Preview review
                          This looked a trappy contest beforehand and this played out in the market with three of the five starting as 11/4 co-favourites with the fourth a 100/30 shot. Nevertheless, the front pair on the prospects list had the race between them going to the last with the strong prospect looking the likelier winner before capitulating. Moneykenny somewhat exceeded expectations but was still well held and did not do himself any favours by taking a hold. Boundsy Boy disappointed to the tune of one position and had probably not recovered from his handicap exertions. While the gods of fortune might be lamented, there is no real reflection necessitated by the outcome of this contest.

                          Race review
                          Just the five runners faced the starter but none of the participants could have been ruled out entirely. The contest for favouritism ended up being split three ways although two runners eventually stood (for want of a better term) above the rest; namely the highest rated flat recruit and the most promising of those with experience. To the former went the spoils as the latter was most unfortunate in falling at the last. No blame can be assigned to the rider who used the same level of cajoling at the two previous flights to get very neat leaps from his mount. Rather, she simply failed to pick up her legs in time and that was the end of her race. Mercifully, she returned home safe and sound to fight again another day. The pace was a steady one which was no quicker than sensible. Consequently, the winning time was slow, several of these took quite a keen hold and the overall standard of jumping left something to be desired. Notwithstanding, the winner and the faller looked much the best on the day and both should have more to give going forward.

                          New Reality won one from six on the flat for Jim Bolger with the form of his Tipperary success back in May working out very well. He was the latest in the line of juvenile hurdlers to make the journey from Coolcullen to Stoodleigh and though arguably fortuitous, he became the sixth of the eleven to win in the sphere. Starting the day as 5/2 joint favourite, he opened in the ring at 10/3 before being clipped into 11/4 co-favourite of three. Racing in midfield, he was fairly keen early but soon settled into a good rhythm. While he did not make any serious errors, he had a habit of steadying into his flights and did not get very high at three out. Making his move afterwards, he travelled strongly to loom upsides the leader at the penultimate flight. However, he was not as fluent as his rival as he hopped the flight and was slightly skewed; costing him some momentum. Though still seemingly full of running, he was not making ground on the leader and was a couple of lengths down when left in the lead at the last. There, he was very nearly brought down by Aliomaana and David Noonan did tremendously well to maintain the partnership. Such was the extent of New Reality's lead, it mattered not that his rider completed the race without irons as he passed the post fourteen lengths clear of the remainder. Whether New Reality would have won had his rival stayed upright is a matter of speculation. While he had yet to come fully off the bridle and surely would have stayed beyond the line, the question of his finding that necessary extra gear remained unanswered. Notwithstanding, this was a very promising hurdling debut and although the form is nothing out of the ordinary, and he could be vulnerable under a penalty over a sharp trip, New Reality looks to have more than enough scope to leave this behind and will be of interest in the coming months when the rain gets into the ground. 104

                          Moneykenny was a winner on his penultimate flat outing for Andrew Balding and has the profile to at least match his form over hurdles. His jumps debut at Newton Abbot in the beginning of July was not without promise, although he failed to match that performance a fortnight later and had not been seen since. Steady in the market throughout the day, Moneykenny raced keenly while held up in the rear. His hurdling was not especially fluent as he wandered before hopping over the first, got close to the fourth, was steady and tight at the fifth while his last two jumps were both steady and untidy. He had moved into third when he had left the back but never threatened to make any real impression on the leaders. Ground was lost on the winner as he too was hampered by the faller at the last, but he still had enough to hold on for second. Probably matching the form of his debut effort, Moneykenny will now be eligible for a handicap mark which appears to be his best chance to be competitive in the sphere. 90

                          Boundsy Boy, following a 309 day absence, finished runner-up on his first two starts over hurdles before disappointing on his handicap debut at Bangor twelve days ago. Though he should have appreciated the return to novice company, his latest experience appeared to leave a mark on his hurdling as he posted much his worst round of jumping to date. Going to his left on numerous occasions, he was particularly untidy over the first, third and sixth. Although he led the pursuit of the leader for much of the contest, he lost his position on leaving the back and was never a threat from there. While he may benefit from another drop in the weights, he has yet to run within nine pounds of his current mark and he questions to answer going forward. 89

                          Don't Look Back was not out of the reckoning on his consistent flat form and is closely related to a couple of good young jumpers on the damline. However, he was the only runner to go without market support and was keen both on his way to the start and in the race itself. Held up towards the rear, he made errors at all of his flights; starting with big and skewed jumps before moving to tired leaps in the closing stages. Beaten by forty lengths, there was not a great deal of encouragement to be drawn from this outing. 64

                          Aliomaana failed to win for John Gosden, but grabbed a couple of seconds on the all weather prior to fetching 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. Juveniles formerly trained by John Gosden often leave little wriggle room for their new handlers, although Milton Harris got three wins out of Pyramid Place last term and was unlucky not to make it two from two here. Quietly fancied ahead of her hurdling debut at Stratford, she was not the tidiest jumper but raced with plenty of enthusiasm before tiring late on to finish third. The first part of that story was similar here as, pulling herself into the lead shortly after the start, she was slightly distracted when steady at the first, but got over the second alright despite wandering on the approach. Though still fairly fresh, she had settled into a sensible rhythm up front and while she was rather skewed at the third and briefly lost her footing on some loose turf passing the stands, was still decent enough over the next. Hopping through the next in a fashion quite accurately described by Mike Cattermole as unconventional, Mitch Bastyan cajoled her at the right moment over the next two and got very neat leaps out of her in the process. While Aliomaana briefly looked in danger from the looming presence of New Reality, she bounded on nicely on the run to the last and appeared the likeliest winner at the time. Unfortunately, having a lapse in concentration, she did not lift her feet high enough and ended up rolling onto the ground. Mercifully, she got up ok and it has been reported that she returned home in one piece. Although she is still a good half-stone from her best flat form, this represented a decent leap forward from her debut at Stratford. Provided her ego remains unscathed, her consistency on the flat and promise over hurdles should make her more than capable of gaining compensation at this level. 100

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Preview review
                            No preview was written on this race and no previews will be written on races held under the jurisdiction of HRI for the foreseeable future. I had half the mind to forego this review and all reviews for Irish races but that might be unfair on those with clean records who follow and participate in the sport. Furthermore, as several Irish runners will likely compete in Britain this season, it will be beneficial for this project that an eye is kept on what is happening across the Irish sea.

                            Nevertheless, when a regulatory body sees fit to not only reduce the punishment of a man who allowed horses under his care to suffer immensely, but also afford that man the privilege of maintaining a very direct involvement in the sport is beyond comprehension. It is my opinion that HRI is completely unfit for purpose insofar as the welfare of its equine participants is concerned and I can not in good conscience endorse such a body by previewing their races. This is an issue that rightfully caused an uproar within the industry, but without sustained denunciation, is one which will quickly be forgotten until the next scandal rocks the sport for a few days. While my gesture is unlikely to have any potency, it is the only one I can make in my position.

                            Race review
                            Ballinrobe hosted juvenile hurdles during the September of each year between 2013 and 2019, albeit occurring a couple of weeks later than this contest. The quality of three-year-old races at the venue is typically above average with decent sorts Clarcam, Way Back Home and Noble Inn being introduced in previous renewals. While the hurdling form brought into this year's edition was ordinary, the newcomers brought a good standard of flat form to the race. The front pair were two such horses who were also representing trainers that had won this race in the past. The withdrawal of Albert Camus took a little depth out of the contest without causing too much damage. Won in a time two seconds quicker than the mares' maiden held half an hour later, the gallop was a good and consistent one. While the quality of jumping was moderate, the field settled and travelled well enough before finishing in good intervals. Since the first three were all newcomers, quite how well the form holds up in the coming months remains to be seen. Nevertheless, the winner was an impressive one and there is no real reason to question the stability of the form as it stands.

                            Too Bright took ten attempts to get off the mark on the flat, but showed considerable improvement when running away with a Roscommon handicap off 58 in first time tongue strap. A hurdling career was mooted post race and after being backed in from 5/1 to 3/1 at the off, Too Bright made a fine start to his new vocation. Slightly blocked just before the first flight, his involvement almost ended at that point as he missed the hurdle and pecked very badly on landing. This incident relegated him to midfield where he remained after getting close to the second. He had moved into a more prominent position by the third and was leading the chase going out onto the final circuit. His jumping was decent from hereon with only minor errors such as slightly wandering approaching the fifth and trailing his hind legs through the top of the last counted against him. He jumped into a share of the lead at the penultimate flight and though briefly challenged on the turn for home, he was travelling much the strongest and was coasting at the distance. A good, if imperfect, jump at the last gave him a clear advantage and having been shaken up for just a couple of strides, had the race completely sewn up before easing on the run to the line. Too Bright maintained his flat improvement with another career best and although he was not fluent early on, he learned plenty about hurdling as the race progressed. The second and third did not put in the best rounds of jumping but they headed the market and each had compelling profiles. The fourth was well beaten despite jumping better than on his debut and looks a reasonable benchmark. The winning time was a good one for the level and with the form looking to have substance, this would quite comfortably be the best performance over hurdles by a three-year-old thus far in Britain or Ireland. While the Triumph is a long way away, it is quite surprising that Too Bright has yet to be quoted for the contest as although he has yet to warrant a short price, he has more credentials and scope than several others on those lists. The Listowel contest on Sunday has been given as a target and it is a race in which Noel Meade has two winners and two seconds from four runners. It is hoped that he faces decent opposition so that more can be learned of this interesting recruit. 125

                            Powerful Kieran was the first runner over hurdles for sire Protectionist. The Melbourne Cup winner is from the K?nigsstuhl/Monsun line which has shown itself most adept in the sphere and his standing at a respectable 16.0?hh further adds to his credentials. Powerful Kieran also has a more jumping rich damline than most juveniles as he is out of a winning chaser who has already produced a couple of winners, is a nephew of the useful Valley Ride and his third dam is the matriarch of a family which includes Jodami (3/1), Beer Goggles (3/2), Home Farm (3/2) and Gemini Lucy (3/3). While an animal with this pedigree would usually be kept as a store horse, Powerful Kieran had nine runs on the flat coming into this contest that include a couple of handicap seconds in June and a win on his latest outing. Stepping up to fourteen furlongs, he got off the mark at Killarney in comfortable fashion from a mark of 72. Steady in the market and sent off the 5/2 second favourite, Powerful Kieran was always in a prominent position but despite his racecourse experience, was sometimes prone to greenness. Wandering on the approach to the first, he was slightly close to the second and got rather lit up approaching the stands before being lazy running away from them. Getting close at the sixth, he was off the bridle half a mile out and awkward jumps at the last two did him no favours. While he briefly loomed alongside the winner on the turn for home, he was very readily done for toe before plugging on at the one pace. Without Too Bright, Powerful Kieran would have been a nice winning debutant and while he lacked fluency on occasion, it is reasonable to imagine him improving with experience. A pleasing performance overall and one which makes him one of the more interesting recruits seen thus far. Though the best of him is unlikely to be seen this season, Powerful Kieran should still be able to pay his way over the coming months. 116

                            Razdan was the best backed horse in this contest, starting the 9/4 favourite having been 10/1 in the morning. Beginning his career as an Aga Khan horse with Michael Halford, he fetched €32,000 at the Goffs February sale and while he remained a maiden after ten outings, his ability exceeded his mid-seventies flat rating. An explanation for his failure to find the winners' enclosure is that he has developed a reputation for starting his races slowly. This attribute has followed him over jumps as along with racing in the rear for much of the contest, his hurdling was slow throughout; either going over or getting away from his hurdles. Still with most of the field in front of him jumping the penultimate flight, Razdan was making only steady headway at the distance with his best work being done in the closing stages. Just as on the flat, his ability to win a race might be surpassed by an unwillingness to do so. While he shaped like a dour stayer, his pedigree is not particularly stout and until he proves otherwise, he might become frustrating under both codes. 112

                            Gamigin brought the strongest hurdles form into the contest by way of a respectable fifth to Realist at Down Royal. A drifter beforehand, opening at 6/1 before starting at 11/1, Gamigin was not foot perfect as he was big over the first, skewed over the fourth and slow away from the last. Nevertheless, it was still an improvement on his debut round. Racing just behind the leaders, he kept tabs on the front runners for much of the second circuit and only started to lose touch on the approach to the last whereafter he lost third on the run-in. Though inconsistent on the flat, Gamigin confirmed his Down Royal effort and probably improved by a few pounds in the process. Stamina is likely to be an issue during the winter months but while he needs a weak contest to be competitive in open company, he could find himself on a workable mark come the spring. 105

                            Catch Kodi could only be described as a modest maiden on the flat but while she was her trainer's first runner in the sphere, she received outside support in the ring being trimmed to half her 66/1 opening show. Sent off straight into the lead, she wandered into several of her hurdles and was also clumsy at a couple. Though she still had a share of the lead at two out, she weakened from thereon and was ultimately beaten thirty-three lengths into fifth. This was not a debut outing without promise but it did not exceed her flat efforts and even if she is eventually able to get a trip over hurdles, she will need a generous mark if she is to become competitive. 80

                            Prince Of Verona started his career alongside stablemate St Mark's Basilica in a Curragh maiden last year but finished down the field and would be next seen in the spring representing Denis Hogan. He managed to win at the eighth attempt in a ten furlong Naas handicap off 72 in July and ran to a similar level at Fairyhouse later that month. His latest flat effort was a write-off but he was not without support ahead of his hurdling debut as he started at 15/2 from an opening 14/1. However, held up towards the rear, he was skewed at most of his hurdles and often steady on the approach. He made minor headway late on but was still beaten by over forty lengths. Prince Of Verona has the capacity to do better but this is his second lacklustre performance in succession and he needs to be more fluent in his hurdling in any case. 78

                            War Thunder is probably flattered by his flat rating of 71 and after unseating at the first on his hurdling debut, jumped poorly next time. Though initially racing in midfield, his big and slow jumping put paid to his position. He was progressively losing touch as the race progressed before finishing just under sixty lengths behind the winner. 60

                            Nakao ran a fair race on his second outing for Ger Lyons back in March but that effort has been followed by seven successive duck eggs with his latest four coming under the care of Paul Flynn. Completely unfancied in the market, Nakao was always in the rear and made mistakes at the first and third before finishing tired and completely tailed off. 15

                            Uno Miligre had bits and pieces of form as a two-year-old for Denis Hogan but has shown very little at three for James McAuley. Racing towards the rear, Uno Miligre made a few minor errors without making any impression on the contest before pulling up after two out. 0

                            No Never Again finished down the field in three outings last year and beat only two rivals home on his sole start at three. Sent off at 50/1, he went right and missed the first, giving Peter Carberry no chance of staying on board. He followed the field riderless and continued to make errors although he was decent enough over a couple. 0

                            Television was the shortest priced of the experienced runners and based on her performances in three prior hurdle races, looked likely to appreciate the conditions here. In touch for most of the contest, she jumped reasonably save for getting close to the second and being slightly big over the fourth. However, while she shaped like a stayer on previous outings, she appeared to tire in the closing stages. Losing ground after a steady jump two out, she missed the last, landed steeply and stumbled in a lateral manner which gave Eoin Walsh no chance of maintaining the partnership. Given that an extended trip on softer ground should have suited Television well theoretically, her underperformance suggests that she is perhaps not a stayer in waiting and rather a filly with more general limitations. 87

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Hello all.

                              I have updated the prospects list for the 2021/22 season. However, given its size, I would be unable to post it all in one go. That said, having such a wall of text would create havoc on this thread - aesthetically at least if not mechanically.

                              So I have posted it on twitter...



                              Likes and re-tweets would be most welcome. Suggestions, comments, questions, adoration, abuse etc can be left here or through twitter or wherever.

                              If you are too cool for twitter, and I was myself until recently, then there is a direct link to the blog post here.

                              14th September UpdateWith several horses added and updates attached to profiles of those written earlier, here is a list of horses likely to contest this season’s juvenile hurdles. These horses are…


                              Lots of love and all that

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                I’ve had a quick scan Kotki, and this is a hugely valuable resource. There’s several here I want to put in my tracker, and one or two I’d be keen to get priced up. If anyone else is thinking of reading, it’s worth doing for the quality of the writing alone, including this gem:

                                “Max Mayhem is not without potential for the division, but his temperament is not encouraging and while this might be rectified with his dating a pair of scissors, stablemate Benaud currently has a more solid profile.”

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