Juvenile Hurdlers 2021/22

[Kotkijet]

Thank you

[Zachx02]

Great read thanks Kotki, I like you mentioned Parmenion as I had him on my radar when reading on the france galop websites news a few months back

[Kotkijet]

Morning all.

Not sure why I have done this or where I think it could possibly lead, and am totally out of my comfort zone insofar as self-promotion is concerned. Nevertheless, I have put the above on a blog which is linked through this tweet;-

https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/status/1427728074427207681

If you enjoyed the above prospects preview and partake in the whole twitter thing then it would be really cool if you could re-tweet, like, and so forth

Great read thanks Kotki, I like you mentioned Parmenion as I had him on my radar when reading on the france galop websites news a few months back

Cheers Zach. To be honest, I have tried to include any horse that could be included! That said, while I am shy about stating any preferences, I would probably say that Parmenion is the most interesting of the flat recruits at this juncture.

[Mighty]

You may have spotted me following you Kotki! Twitter is very much my thing, so will be watching what you put up carefully. I need to spend some time getting my head round the detailed analysis you’ve put up, as I’d never heard of DI before this week. Still, that’s what next week’s holiday in Cheltenham is for…

[Kotkijet]

Cheers Mighty! I have had quite a number of new followers over the past day and a bit so I'm afraid I can not place you - and don't wish to risk offence by guessing

Twitter is a very new and confusing device for me, but one I will probably have to get to using if I am to stand a chance of writing about the sport professionally. Should such a thing happen then that would be an absolute dream and I am fully aware of the fact that it is an impossible goal to realise without the support of others. So thank you very much for your help and thanks also to everybody else that engaged with the twitter thing

Ireland's third juvenile hurdle of the season is set to take place tomorrow at Killarney. Set against the backdrop of Ross Castle and McGillycuddy Reeks, its glorious landscape helps to offset the generally mediocre nature of juvenile hurdles held at the venue. Winners of such contests have a below average seasonal RPR of 112.33 and of the 143 participants since 2005, only three went on to collect black type that season. Chica Buena, sixth in this race in 2018, won the listed fillies' hurdle at Aintree, Dreux finished third at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting while Grey Waters, who won this contest in 2017, would finish third in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle. Tomorrow's edition does not threaten to be exceptional as the newcomers are without any flat wins between them, and though six have hurdling experience, the only one to make it beyond a single hurdle finished tailed off. A sharp, undulating, left-handed track, winning juveniles at Killarney have average DIs of 1.56 median, 1.73 mean, which are the fifth highest in Ireland, indicating that stamina would not be at a premium. The clear round rate of 98.59% is higher than average and those making their hurdles bow win slightly more than their fair share of races. The going is currently good although showers are forecast in the interim.

Admiral Brown bbg Henry De Bromhead f5-0-0 (48) 55 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Bated Breath (Dalakhani){4-k}(0.56) 2/1 Pure Science 1st 2m4f Novices' Handicap Chase (120), Uttoxeter 2014
Unable to better seventh position, or finish closer than seven lengths to the winner in six flat outings, Admiral Brown went into his hurdles debut at Roscommon with a rating of just 48. Though a nephew of fairly useful chaser Pure Science and out of a Dalakhani mare, his pedigree is noting out of the ordinary and neither of Bated Breath's previous two juveniles have achieved anything in the sphere. He started the shorter of the Henry De Bromhead pair on the day, but his profile did not really warrant the 10/1 starting price. Setting off just behind the leaders, he only made it to the first flight where he was brought down.

Dies Its Eine bg Mrs Prunella Dobbs f1-0-0 (-) 0 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Gutaifan (Invincible Spirit){9-f}(1.22) 2/1 Unaccompanied 1st Spring Juvenile Hurdle (G1), Leopardstown 2011
Though he failed to show on his sole flat outing at Down Royal in June, Dies Its Eine is a nephew of the highly talented juvenile filly Unaccompanied. However, while Prunella Dobbs has had a winning juvenile hurdler, Dies Its Eine was friendless in the ring ahead of his hurdling bow at Roscommon, going from an opening 40/1 to 150/1. Setting off in a prominent position, he blundered at the first before getting brought down a split second later. He continued to gallop loose although, while not averse to jumping more hurdles, he was not particularly fluent without his rider.

Doctor Brown Bear bg Brendan W Duke f2-0-0 (-) 65
Estidhkaar (Bahri){1-l}(1.50) 2/1 Chica Buena 1st Fillies' Juvenile Hurdle (Listed), Aintree 2018
Making his racecourse debut in a ten furlong Naas maiden back in April, Doctor Brown Bear finished tenth of fourteen, eight lengths behind the winner and half-a-length behind the improved Silaiyli. However, while a promising debut at face value, he was the only one to fade back through the field among those racing prominently and may be flattered by the result. Returning in mid August for a similar contest at The Curragh, he set off prominently but was checked in the early stages and fell through the field before plugging on to finish just over eight lengths behind the winner, tenth of twenty-two. Trainer Brendan Duke has a good record in the sphere with a healthy winners to runners rate of 28.95%. He ran Doctor Brown Bear's auntie, Chica Buena, in this contest back in 2018 where she finished sixth before going on to win the listed fillies' race at Aintree that December. Half-sister Rock Chica was also a winning juvenile last season, but while Bahri has a solid record as a damsire in the sphere, Estidkhaar's two representatives have achieved little and sons of Dark Angel are not renowned for producing juvenile hurdlers. Though not copper bottomed, there is enough in Doctor Brown Bear's profile to make him of interest in this company and though his trainer's juveniles tend to improve with experience, three of thirty-eight did score first time and the yard enjoyed a recent winner at Dundalk.

Real Dude chg Michael Winters f4-0-0 (54) 54
Dawn Approach (Nayef){4-g}(1.29) 3/1 Zabriskie 3rd 2m1?f Novices Claiming Hurdle, Fontwell 1999
Former inmates of Roger Charlton's win their fair share of juvenile hurdles, one of whom being the useful Old Guard. However, only 23.08% improve for the switch in codes and Real Dude does not bring a solid profile to the table. While residing at Beckhampton Stables, Real Dude ran four times as a two-year-old, looking green and finishing closer to last than first on each occasion. In Michael Winters, he has joined a trainer with one winner from his five in the division, coming in a weak Cork maiden in March 2017, although he is currently on the cold list. The pedigree offers no respite as Dawn Approach is without a winner from ten individuals in the division, and the only jumps relative on the damline was the very moderate Zabriskie at 3/1.

Rich Law No Law bg M Keane f8-0-2 (45) 52 j1-0-0 (-) 23 24
Lawman (Singspiel){2-f}(0.78) 2/2 Percy Street 6th Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle (G3,124), Cheltenham 2017
Starting his career with Kevin Prendergast, Rich Law No Law collected a couple of places in a pair of nurseries last autumn. However, his final two starts of last year were below par and he joined Maurice Keane after fetching €5,500 at the Goffs February sale. He was well beaten off 46 on his first start for his new handler - who himself is without any jumps winner since September 2012. Rich Law No Law is the only runner in this field to have completed a hurdles race, doing so at Ballinrobe eleven days ago. However, he was completely unfancied and started at 250/1. Always in the rear division, he was steady at his hurdles (reported by his rider to have jumped green) and finished the race tailed off and tired. His pedigree is at least reasonable as Lawman has a fairly solid record as a sire of juveniles and cousin Percy Street finished sixth in the 2017 Fred Winter. However, that glimmer of hope from his pedigree has been diminished by what he has shown on the track this year.

Stand Staunch bg Joseph Patrick O'Brien j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Camelot (Danehill){14-b}(0.76) 3/1 Amazing Sail 1st 2m5f Novices' Selling Handicap Hurdle (88), Sedgefield 1997
Unraced on the flat, Stand Staunch made his first racecourse appearance at Roscommon early this month. Going out to 12/1 in the morning he opened in the ring at 15/2 before being backed down to 4/1 at the off. Just about in mid division, Stand Staunch was subject to a dramatic hampering which saw him get brought down and emerge with a bloody nose. Though with Joseph O'Brien, a trainer who won this race in 2017 and has a solid 25% winners to runners rate in the sphere, Stand Staunch has a fairly mixed profile. Sire Camelot enjoyed a fine first season in the sphere, and while his numbers were down the past two seasons, his overall figures are still healthy. The damline is less compelling as it largely consists of sprinters with the nearest winning jumper being the selling class Amazing Sail at 3/1. Furthermore, the record of previously unraced horses in juvenile hurdles is modest and most need several runs before approaching standard strike rates. The trainer himself has failed to win with any of his nine unraced debutants in the sphere. While the money before his debut may have suggested a good performance was anticipated, the profile on paper is not particularly solid and it remains to be seen if his first racecourse outing left an impression on his psyche.

Supposedtobe grg James M Barrett f8-0-1 (69) 76
Epaulette (Mastercraftsman){1-w}(0.60) 2/2 Kendancer 2nd 2m?f 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Punchestown 2020
The most experienced newcomer in this line-up, Supposedtobe had eight starts on the flat with his best placing being a third on his debut at Tipperary last October. Below that form in four subsequent outings, he put up an improved performance in a ten furlong handicap at Leopardstown in early June. Running off a mark of 70, he made headway to move into a prominent position turning for home and was just about in second position at the furlong marker. However, he carried his head fairly awkwardly under pressure and lost five places before the finish line - albeit to horses who have since maintained solid form. Down in trip next time for a mile handicap at Killarney, Supposedtobe was not disgraced in finishing in midfield, but did not have the pace to make an impression on the contest. He was last seen in first time blinkers when running just below his best over a mile back at Leopardstown - once again looking awkward under pressure. James Barrett is zero from two with his juvenile hurdlers and has gone over a year without a jumps winner, although he did score on the flat last week. Epaulette failed to win with his first two runners in the sphere, but Scrappy Jack has helped him out by landing a double at Newton Abbot last month. Mastercraftsman's recent passing is a great loss to the industry and in particular, the juvenile hurdling division as his record of a sire was well above average, with no stallion producing more winners since Mastercraftman's progeny hit the scene in 2014/15. Nevertheless, there are signs that he could be also be potent as a damsire with his early record in that role being two winners from five including Talking About You who won two listed contests last term. Supposedtobe's flat form is perfectly adequate in the context of this race and his overall profile is not without potential, although there would be a degree of concern regarding his attitude under pressure.

War Thunder bg D J Ryan f5-0-1 (73) 75
Cityscape (Nicolette){1-w}(1.67) 3/1 Great Heights 2nd 2m Maiden Hurdle, Ayr 1993
Officially the race's highest rated newcomer, War Thunder arrives here with a flat mark of 73 following five outings in that sphere. Starting off with Richard Hannon, War Thunder was beaten no more than five lengths in a couple of starts on the all weather last autumn, running green on both occasions. Fetching 24,000gns at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale, he was gelded over the winter and his first outing for David Ryan came in a ten furlong Navan maiden on heavy ground back in March. He starting at 150/1 and ran accordingly, doing only moderate late work and finishing nearly thirty lengths behind the winner. Just over a month later, he stepped up his form considerably to finish third in a ten furlong Sligo maiden, beaten five lengths and a head by a pair of subsequent winners. Though the less testing, good to yielding, ground may have been in his favour, he was also the beneficiary of a race which rather fell apart around him. War Thunder failed to confirm the promise when last seen in a Sligo handicap where though he led for a long way, folded very tamely and finished tailed off, beating just the one home. The remainder of his profile offers little encouragement as sire Cityscape is without a winning juvenile from five, close relatives Taanif (0.5), Coumenole (2/2) and Great Heights (3/1) were moderate over jumps, and the trainer is without a winner of any description for over two years. War Thunder's best form entitles him to consideration, although the reliability of said form is questionable and the remainder of his profile is without substance.

Alice Kitty chf Denise Foster f6-1-2 (74) 77 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Bobby's Kitten (Galileo){1-n}(0.82) 2/1 Kilburn 1st 2m Maiden Hurdle, Plumpton 2011
The only previous winner set to face the starter in tomorrow's contest, Alice Kitty, broke her duck at the fifth time of asking in a modest Ballinrobe claimer over an extended nine furlongs back in June. Sold afterwards for €5,000, she was initially set to join Philip Makin in Yorkshire but instead made her hurdling for Denise Foster. Her new handler has yet to saddle a winner in the sphere from twenty-four attempts, and those who leave Jessica Harrington to go juvenile hurdling tend not to improve for the switch in codes as illustrated by an improvement rate of just 18.18%. Nevertheless, when she made her hurdles debut at Roscommon, these factors did not prevent Alice Kitty from starting the day as 5/2 favourite and while she opened at 4/1 in the ring, she was clipped in half a point by flagfall. Sent off in a prominent position, she hesitated on the approach to the first where she failed to get high enough and took a crashing fall, bringing down much of the field in the process. Among the injuries she was reported to have sustained were an overreach on the right pastern, a right shoulder contusion, a skin wound, and blood at the left nostril. Mercifully, she has apparently been able to recover from this baptism of floor and hooves. The first hurdles runner for Bobby's Kitten (the El Prado sireline is not without its winners in the sphere), she is a niece of winning hurdler Kilburn, and of the hurdles placed Popmurphy. Prior to her Roscommon fiasco, Alice Kitty's profile would not have been without merit. However, the nature of that experience does not give rise to optimism going forward.

Annwyl Angharad bf Edward P Mitchell f4-0-0 (-) 35 j1-0-0 (-) 0 0
Dylan Thomas (Mukaddamah){1-h}(2.00) 0.5 Luddenmore 2nd 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Gowran Park 2011
During her four flat outings, Annwyl Angharad finished last on each occasion, never finishing nearer than nineteen lengths to the winner, and starting at odds upwards of 250/1 on three starts this term. Sire Dylan Thomas has a 21.21% winners to runners rate, but the trainer has yet to taste success in the sphere from four runners. Drifting from 80/1 to 200/1 ahead of her Roscommon bow, Annwyl Angharad was in mid-division when getting too close to the first and unshipping Simon Torrens independently of the surrounding carnage. She then ran out at the next when running loose.

Feigh chf W P Mullins Unraced
Well Chosen (Great Palm){14-a}(0.80) 2/1 Belmount 1st 3m1f Handicap Chase (127), Hereford 2016
Willie Mullins has a record with juvenile hurdlers which is basically the envy of everybody in the business. However, Feigh, set to be his first runner of the campaign, failed to sell as a foal at the Tattersalls Ireland sale, passing through the ring with a bid of just €1,800. Bred to be a chaser for the long term, Feigh is by a Well Chosen whose sole juvenile failed to score. Her uncle Belmount was a fairly useful staying chaser and the likes of Afistfullofdollars (3/2) Gaye Brief, Gaye Chance and Black Humour (each at 4/1) also appear on the damline. While any representative of the in-form Willie Mullins would automatically be entitled to some respect, particularly in a race of this standard, it is worth noting that neither of his racecourse debutants have scored in the sphere, nor have either of his juveniles who ran at Killarney.

Strong prospects
1. Supposedtobe
Reasonable prospects
2. Doctor Brown Bear
3. Stand Staunch
4. Feigh
Feasible prospects
5. Alice Kitty
6. War Thunder
Moderate prospects
7. Dies Its Eine
8. Admiral Brown
Negligible prospects
9. Rich Law No Law
10. Real Dude
11. Annwyl Angharad

[Kotkijet]

An update on the season's prospects piece;- Champagne Piaff just ran out a convincing winner of the ten furlong handicap at Windsor this evening. Though still clearly green, his credentials have certainly been boosted by today's performance and it would be good to see him over hurdles this winter. 66/1 for the Triumph is still available and while I would not opine on whether or not someone should take that price, it is at least better than the 50/1 on Champagne Green, and 40/1 on Caramelised.

Since I am here giving an update, it hopefully makes my twitter plug slightly less obnoxious... Will try not to get too spammy with the whole self-promotion thing...

Here is the tweet for the preview of tomorrow's race,

https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/status/1428416069111369731

and you can follow me at @HarchibaldS

If you like the preview, please share, re-tweet and so forth as it would really help me a lot while I am starting out. If you do not like the preview then definitely re-tweet it so the world gets to see how terrible it is

[Kotkijet]

Preview review
The four runners who were given reasonable prospects and better filled the first four places, coming a long way clear in the process. While the finishing order was not entirely precise, the strong prospect at least exceeded market expectations to run into a place, although the noted concerns over his temperament did manifest during the closing stages. The winner was a class apart, although her profile was such that had she been with almost any other trainer, her prospects would have been dismissed. In the event, she was representing Willie Mullins and to highlight a pitfall in previewing races in advance, she was well backed during the day. Given that the front two had not previously raced on the flat or abroad, there could be an argument to not underestimate unraced debutants in the future. However, statistics over fifteen seasons show that such horses still have a poor record, regardless of how they are bred. Indeed, among the sires who top the table for unraced juveniles who failed to win in the sphere are the likes of Balko, Jeremy, Old Vic and Presenting, while the damsire contingent includes Good Thyne, Orchestra, Supreme Leader and Turgeon. As such, while the preview was imperfect (which will essentially apply to all previews), the one for this contest was largely satisfactory and demands little reflection.

Race review
Juvenile hurdles at Killarney generally take little winning and as the subsequent strike rate of its participants is just 8.15% (sixth lowest in Ireland - average across all courses is 10.85%), they rarely have much of an impact going forward. This afternoon's contest looked little different beforehand, but the winner, already a rarity in making a winning racecourse debut in the sphere, could emerge to be an exception. Though not as theatrical as the curtain raiser at Roscommon, this race was not without incident as three runners departed at the first, and one of the loose horses almost carried out the winner passing the stands for the second circuit. Drama notwithstanding, most of the field travelled well enough in themselves, although the overall quality of jumping left something to be desired. While the field set off at a decent clip, the overall pace through the contest was not taxing once the runners had settled and the winning time was some ten seconds slower than the handicap taken by a 119 rated horse half an hour later on the card. Nevertheless, the field finished strung out with the prominent horses having every right to fill their positions. While the winner's ceiling is difficult to establish, and the bare form behind does not amount to a great deal, it would still be fair to assume that the form, for what it is, should be fairly reliable.

Feigh passed through the ring as a foal without selling, attracting a bid of only €1,800. By Well Chosen and related to Belmount (2/1), Afistfullofdollars (3/2) and Black Humour (4/1), she is bred more to be a staying chaser than a juvenile hurdler. Going into the contest, unraced debutants had a strike rate of just 2.24% in all juvenile hurdles since 2004/05 and were she with any other trainer, she would have started as an outsider. However, her trainer is master of all trades, including juvenile hurdlers, Willie Mullins. While his record with unraced juvenile hurdlers and those sent to Killarney was barren in isolation, Feigh attracted plenty of market support through the day going from a shade of odds against in the morning, to 4/6 at flagfall. Sent off into a prominent position, though she was keen in the opening stages, she had to be ridden into her early hurdles and was steady over the first three. Popping over the fourth, she was fine again over the last on the first circuit before averting potential calamity when the loose Dies Its Eine almost carried her out of the contest shortly after passing the stands. The incident wiped out her lead of a good dozen lengths, but it is to her credit that she put in her best jump of the contest at the very next flight. Feigh settled into a good rhythm from there and had effortlessly moved into a lead of half-a-dozen lengths going towards the penultimate flight. Though she made her first bad error of the contest at this hurdle, hitting it hard and stumbling on landing, she merely had to be given a bit of rein approaching the final flight and while she was slightly untidy once again, she cruised along the run-in to win by a very easy nine lengths. Value for more than the winning margin, not to mention what she lost passing the stands, Feigh was conspicuously inexperienced, but she will have learned a lot from this outing. Her quick recovery after almost being carried out is also testament to her likeable attitude. Though quantifiably, it is difficult to suggest she achieved a great deal here, she did demonstrate a healthy amount of promise and this performance would put her atop the provisional early standings in the division. Her pedigree suggests that better can be expected in the longer term but it will still be interesting to see what she can achieve during her first season against stronger types. 113

Stand Staunch was an unraced debutant going into the Roscommon contest early this month, but being a Joseph O'Brien trained son of Camelot meant that his profile was not without substance, and he was the subject of steady market support prior to taking a beating during the first flight fracas. Emerging with a bloody nose, it was a matter of speculation as to how much of an impact was left on his psyche. Steady in the ring and sent off the 5/1 second favourite, Stand Staunch was slightly slow at the first, but appeared to show no ill effects from the experience from thereon. Settled behind the leaders, he jumped well during the first circuit, but had dropped to mid division going out for the second time. He was shaken up after wandering and getting close to the seventh flight and had yet to make inroads when blundering badly at three out. Going through the top of two out, he had no pretentions of catching the winner, but he did manage to win the battle for second place on the run-in. Stand Staunch has plenty of scope and he showed enough here to suggest he should at least be competitive at this level - even if his future lies over further, or softer. 104

Supposedtobe had the benefit of eight racecourse outings to his name coming into this race and while he placed no better than third on the flat, the best of his form gave him a chance in this field. Despite his trainer being winless in this discipline, there was enough in his pedigree to suggest that the switch in codes could bring some improvement. Setting off in midfield before moving into a more prominent position, Supposedtobe posted much the best round of jumping in this contest. He was left in front going out onto the second circuit and was briefly lit up by his involuntary position, but settled better once he was given a lead. Unable to keep tabs on the leader, he was niggled along turning onto the cross section and, distracted by lateral approach of the loose horse, he went right and rather tripped over the penultimate hurdle. He was untidy again at the final flight and similar to what he had done on the flat, was reluctant to give best when pressed for second, ceding that position without any real resistance. Supposedtobe is perfectly capable of performing in this sphere and while not copper bottomed, his stamina should have been enough to see out today's trip. However, his attitude is a different matter entirely and until he proves otherwise, his prospects for actually winning a race will be sketchy. 103

Doctor Brown Bear had shown fair form during two flat outings, is closely related to a pair of winning juvenile hurdlers and his trainer has a solid record in the division. Starting the day at 10/1, he halved in price during the day's exchanges before drifting back out to 9/1 at the off. Held up towards the rear, he hurdled reasonably to begin with, but skewed and stumbled over the fourth and was close and untidy two flights later. He made some headway along the back, but never threatened to get involved in the contest and merely plugged on before getting outpaced on the run in. Finishing five and a half lengths behind the third and a distance clear of the remainder, this was not a debut outing without some promise and he was not far off his flat performances here. There is scope for improvement in his hurdling and his trainer's juveniles tend to improve from their debuts. Doctor Brown Bear's relatives did well in the sphere on soft ground and that could be the key to him leaving this effort behind. 98

Rich Law No Law was placed in a pair of nurseries for Kevin Prendergast last autumn, but since joining Maurice Keane for €5,500 at Goffs in February, has shown nothing either at Cork on the flat, or Ballinrobe over hurdles. Starting the race in a prominent position, he was soon relegated to midfield before passing the stands, and would only continue to lose ground. He was steady at several of his flights and his hurdling was never better than fair. This was a step up on his debut performance, but there is still a wide gap between where he is, and where he needs to be if he wants to be competitive over hurdles. 66

Admiral Brown is rated just 48 on the flat, and while he is with a trainer firmly established at the top table of national hunt racing, Henry de Bromhead's record with juvenile hurdlers is not the strongest. Admiral Brown's starting price of 10/1 was not warranted by his profile and after a steady, big and slow jump at the first, he was rear-ended by Dies Its Eine on landing. From there, he raced towards the rear of midfield and his jumping was steady, slow and untidy at most of his flights. Ultimately beaten by over fifty lengths, Admiral Brown has shown nothing thus far to suggest he can perform in this discipline. 63

Annwyl Angharad was very modest on the flat and she was completely unfancied when unseating at the first on her hurdles bow. While she was able to complete on this occasion, there was next to no aptitude in her jumping and she finished hopelessly tailed off. 0

Real Dude started his career with Roger Charlton, but was modest in four outings and was making his first appearance here after a nine month absence. Drifting from 25/1 to 66/1 in the ring, he set off in a prominent position but was burdened by slow and untidy jumping throughout. He fell through the field along the back stretch before being pulled up two from home. 0

Alice Kitty was well fancied ahead of her hurdling debut at Roscommon where she was making her first appearance since being claimed out of Jessica Harrington's yard for €5,000. She only made it as far as the first there and sustained numerous injuries during the melee. Ridden into the first flight here, she appeared to jump it well enough. However, from the camera angle offered, it looked like a very soft unseat by her conditional rider. While it may be unfair to call out such a thing for a young rider, to not do so would also be unfair on the horse. There was some bunching up going on where the unseat took place so in the absence of definitive footage, the benefit of doubt can be given. Alice Kitty galloped on unharmed, and avoided causing interference when opting not to jump the third. 0

War Thunder, if his best flat effort can be taken at face value, brought just about the strongest form into this contest. However, there is reason to suspect that he was flattered by his Sligo third and his pedigree offered little encouragement for his hurdling bow. Unconsidered in the market, he was towards the rear when he was hesitant on arrival at the first, jumped steeply and untidily before getting rid of his rider. He did the same at the second flight without a rider in the saddle and decided to follow Alice Kitty's lead in calling it a day at the third. 0

Dies Its Eine is a nephew of the classy juvenile hurdler Unaccompanied, but that is the extent of his credentials. He was brought down at the first on his hurdling debut and after jumping into the rear of Admiral Brown, would depart at the same flight here. Galloping on loose, he clambered over the third and almost took out Feigh when passing the stands. Whenever he jumped again, it was untidy and it is becoming apparent that he has inherited nothing from his auntie that would be of much use in this discipline. 0

[Kotkijet]

Juvenile hurdling returns to Great Britain Today with Stratford hosting its third, and fourth, such contests this season. Generally speaking, field sizes for juvenile hurdles held during August are the third lowest on the calendar, with the mean of 9.76 greater than only June and July. However, due to a gap of over three weeks in the division, prolonged by Fontwell's abandonment, a glut of entries were made for this contest with twenty-two runners standing their ground. As a result, Stratford's race has become the first juvenile hurdle in Britain to be split since the 16th of October 2019 when Lady Shanawell and Maria Magdalena won a division apiece at Wetherby.

Stratford's juvenile hurdles, the majority of which take place during the summer, are generally less competitive than the standard contest in the division with the average winner's seasonal RPR of 112.72 being a near half-stone below par. Nevertheless, good juveniles have trod The Bard's boards and this particular race, last held in 2015, was taken that year by subsequent Triumph fifth Leoncavallo, while 2008 winner Simarian would win and place at Cheltenham in the following months. While Langafel and Sacre Pierre were not amongst the entries who stood their ground here, the two divisions each have enough intriguing runners to make both races up to scratch. The first division's experienced runners are headed by dual winner Scrappy Jack and course and distance placed Fred Bear, while Dan Skelton, Colin Tizzard and Neil King are represented among the flat recruits. Half an hour later, Britain's leading juvenile Caramelised should be kept honest by representatives of Stuart Edmunds, Amy Murphy and Sophie Leech. Though a sharp, left-handed circuit, dosage index figures from Stratford's juvenile hurdles indicate that stamina is a useful asset at the venue as the average winning DI of 1.11 is lower only at Cheltenham, Hexham and Chepstow. Jumping can be trickier than usual as the clear round rate of 95.20% is in the lower quarter of British and Irish racecourses, and that figure drops to 93.22% for hurdling debutants. Experience is also valuable around Stratford as newcomers have an impact value of 0.61 since 2004/05. The going was last reported to be Good, Good to Firm in places. It has been watered, although there is no rain forecast between now and flagfall.

DIVISION ONE

Scrappy Jack bg Bill Turner f1-0-0 (-) 0 j3-2-0 (113) 95 94
Epaulette (Compton Place){11}(2.00) 2/1 The Final Whistle 7th 2m Handicap Hurdle (100), Ludlow 2018
Posting an uninspired performance on his flat debut in early June, Scrappy Jack was beaten twenty lengths on his hurdling bow at Newton Abbot later that month. However, that was not a run without promise and he was able to get off the mark over that course and distance at the start of July. That was a race which appeared to fall apart for him, but while he opened at 12/1 in the ring ahead of his return there a fortnight later, he was half that price by flagfall. Though never travelling with great zest, he made steady progress through the field and jumped the last within a length of the leader. Similar to his previous win, he did not hit the front until near the finish, passing the line with a half-length lead over Fred Bear. Scrappy Jack hurdled adequately during his wins, with his rounds blemished only by sporadic skewing and steadying. However, although his latest victory came in a Class 3 contest, it was a weak event for its type and the form was not much stronger than his previous success. While Scrappy Jack can still hold his own at this level, and trainer Bill Turner has been in fair form as of late, the penalties should have a telling effect sooner rather than later.

Colden's Passion chg Colin Tizzard f7-0-0 (60) 68
Twilight Son (Shamardal){1-h}(1.32) 0.5 Gerry's Way 4th 2m 4yo Maiden Hurdle, Cork 2020
Compared to his usual strings, Colin Tizzard is seldom found in juvenile hurdles, although he fares well whenever he does partake. His runner to winner rate in the sphere is a healthy 35.71% with Third Intention and Padleyourowncanoe among his stronger representatives. Nevertheless, Colden's Passion will be a new venture in two regards as he will be the yard's first juvenile to appear during the summer, and the first to have been campaigned on the flat while residing at Venn Farm. Costing ?47,000 at the Goffs Breeze Up last year, Colden's Passion has finished closer to last than first on all but the first of his seven outings. Though not disgraced in handicaps at Salisbury and Lingfield this year, his latest two outings have seen him beaten a total of sixty-three lengths while failing to beat a single rival home. He is set to be Twilight Son's first runner over hurdles and apart from being a respectable 16.1 hands tall, he does not have a promising profile for the discipline. Raced exclusively over six furlongs, the Haydock Sprint and Diamond Jubilee winner is a son of Kyllachy whose own record in the sphere is among the worst. The damline is quite tepid as half-brother Gerry's Way has shown only fair form, and the closest jumps winners are Fearless Falcon and Watchalike at 3/1. Most of the interest in Colden's Passion would derive from the novelty value as there is not enough substance to entertain real intrigue in this company, particularly as his most recent form has been poor.

Devious Dreamer chg Denis Quinn f13-1-2 (72) 77
Buratino (Refuse To Bend){19}(0.78) 3/2 High Kicker 4th 2m Maiden Hurdle, Ballinrobe 2018
One of two newcomers in the field with winning flat form, Devious Dreamer found the winners enclosure after winning a seven furlong handicap at Gowran in mid June off a mark of 65. Sent off the 7/4 favourite, he was able to dictate a steady pace and after kicking for home at the distance, was able to hold on by half-a-length. That form has not been matched in two subsequent outings and he has shown himself difficult to settle. Devious Dreamer has since left James Barrett to join Newmarket trainer Denis Quinn who has had one juvenile hurdle win from twenty-one attempts. Sire Buratino does not have the obvious qualities to succeed in the sphere, although his sole representative to date has been a winner. There is little encouragement on the distaff side however as the close relatives are best up to a mile, and the jumpers in close proximity were modest. The quality of Devious Dreamer's flat form reads well in the context of this race, but his profile is wanting in the context of this discipline.

Fred Bear bg Sheena West f4-0-0 (53) 52 j3-0-2 (105) 95 96
Kodi Bear (Barathea){16-c}(0.68) 2/1 Silk Affair 1st Fred Winter Juv HcH (G3,125), Cheltenham 2009
While no better than modest on the flat, there was enough in Fred Bear's profile to suggest he could do better over hurdles. Out of a full-sister to Fred Winter winner Silk Affair, trainer Sheena West boasts an outstanding improvement rate of 72.97%. During his first two two outings at Newton Abbot, he went some way to fulfilling this assertion as he followed a promising hurdling debut at the start of July with a second on his return to the venue a fortnight later. Last seen over today's course and distance twenty-five days ago, he began the race as 9/4 favourite from a morning show of 7/2. Sent straight into the lead from flagfall, Fred Bear raced freely for much of the contest, and while his hurdling improved between his first two outings, he was not quite so clean here. Along with steadying at a few hurdles, he also got in close to the first, fourth and sixth as well as having a slight tendency to wander on the approach. These flaws were not massively detrimental to his performance and though he conceded the lead shortly after the turn for home, proving no match for the winner, he still had upwards of nineteen lengths in hand over the remainder. This marked a new career best and although his official mark of 105 is harsh based on his actual accomplishments, he sets the standard over Scrappy Jack at the weights as well as having proven course form. Furthermore, while Sheena West has not been busy as of late, her record with juveniles at Stratford is a respectable with her seven runners collecting a win and four places at the venue.

Nayon bg Robert Eddery f5-0-0 (44) 38
Nayef (Singspiel){14-c}(1.00) 0.5 Virnon 1st 2m1f Handicap Chase (113), Market Rasen 2017
Beating just five of his forty-seven rivals during four outings for David Evans, Nayon's first run for Robert Eddery saw him beaten 120 lengths at Windsor seven weeks ago. There is a glimmer of hope in the pedigree as Nayef's winner/runner rate of 16.98% is solid, if just below average, and half-brother Virnon was a fairly useful chaser. Robert Eddery's sole win from eighteen in the divsion came when Isabella Liberty landed a plunge at Fakenham in October 2014. Similar shenanigans will be required here if Nayon is to make a winning hurdles bow.

Rhythmic Blues chg Michael Easterby f3-0-0 (63) 60
Bobby's Kitten (Exchange Rate){1-w}(3.00) 5/3 Papus 1st 4600m Grand Prix de Pau (80.0) Pau 1992
Set to be his trainer's first representative this term is Rhythmic Blues who has finished in the rear during three starts over a mile this year. Though his latest outing can be excused as the rider lost an iron, his alloted BHA mark of 63 was not enough to tempt a switch into handicap company. Bobby's Kitten has yet to be tested as a sire in the division, but his credentials are not the worst for an American bred. The damline offers no clues other than the appearance to top class French chaser Papus at 5/3. Michael Easterby does get winners in the sphere, although his winner/runner rate of 11.27 and improvement rate of 23.33% are modest, and just one from seventy scored first time.

Scots Gold grg Dan Skelton f6-0-0 (66) 70
Dark Angel (Duke Of Marmalade){8-f}(1.40) 3/2 Major Drive 1st 2m5f Handicap Hurdle (106), Sedgefield 2004
For four out of the past six seasons, Dan Skelton has had a strike rate in the division exceeding 20% and is already off the mark this term with Knotty Ash scoring at Market Rasen. His first time rate with flat recruits rated 62 and above is 29.63% and from seven runners in Stratford juveniles, he has two wins and four places. However, he has gone without a winner for five weeks and Knotty Ash disappointed second time out. Having his first outing here for Dan Skelton is Scots Gold, who despite failing to place in six starts for Tom Dascombe (whose former inmates have a solid record), was not entirely disgraced on the flat. His penultimate outing, which came in a ten furlong Nottingham handicap back in April, was probably his strongest to date as while he was outpaced at the distance in a slowly run affair, he did his best work late on and only narrowly failed to reach third at the post. The form of that race has also worked out well with those surrounding him finished first or second in subsequent outings. He was unable to match that form next time at Goodwood on the first of May and has not been seen since. Similar to Nayef, Dark Angel gets winners in the division, albeit taking less than his fair share. The damline is less encouraging as those that appear prior to the fairly useful Major Drive back at 3/2 were poor over jumps. Scots Gold has enough quality about him to be a threat in this company, and his trainer always warrants respect with this type. However, his unproven stamina for Stratford, near four month absence and the yard's recent form do temper enthusiasm.

Sir Taweel bg Neil King f8-1-0 (60) 64
Sir Prancealot (Duke Of Marmalade){8-f}(0.85) 3/1 Big Occasion 2nd Scottish Grand National (132), Ayr 2013
Neil King's most notable juvenile hurdlers would be Nordano and Lil Rockerfeller, but his overall winner/runner rate of 32.61% and improvement rate of 57.14% are also worthy of respect. His first runner in the division this term is set to be the other winning newcomer in the line-up, Sir Taweel. Showing little for Marco Botti as a two year old, Sir Taweel joined Mohamed Moubarak after fetching 8,000 guineas at the Tattersalls Autumn Sale. Following a winter break and a gelding operation, he was able to get off the mark in a mile handicap at Windsor off 56 towards the end of April. Sent off at 28/1, he travelled strongly in the rear and after making good headway, took up the running at the furlong marker. He did not go on as he might have been expected and carried his head awkwardly under pressure, but did not look in danger of throwing the race away. Returning to Windsor at the end of May, he ran a very similar race off six pounds higher. However, after taking the lead inside the final furlong, he did not follow through with his effort dropped back into fourth in the dying strides. Sir Taweel was then beaten out of sight in a pair of handicaps in June and hung left last time out. He runs in the same colours for his hurdles debut, but while Mohamed Moubarak was able to get a tune out of Kentucky Hardboot last term, the owners have opted to send him to Neil King. Sir Prancealot has a record of just one winner from nine in the division, although they have tended to maintain their flat form and the granddam is a full-sister to the staying chaser Big Occasion, and half-sister to Dovecote winner Forgotten Voice. Overall, there are worse profiles than that of Sir Taweel, but his temperament can not go without question and for all his new trainer has a good record in the sphere, his juveniles do tend to improve with experience.

Aliomaana chf Milton Harris f5-0-2 (74) 75
Raven's Pass (Sea The Stars){8-f}(1.29) 2/1 Celestial Force 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (120), Newton Abbot 2021
The highest rated flat horse in the contest, boosted by a favourable sex allowance, Aliomaana twice managed to grab second in a pair of all-weather maidens over ten furlongs at Wolverhampton and Chelmsford. At the former, she was no match for subsequent Oaks fourth Save A Forest, but did grab her second from a subsequent winner and was behind another subsequent winner in Percy's Pride at Chelmsford. That would be her last start for John Gosden before getting knocked down for 17,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. Thirteen former residents of Clarehaven Stables have gone on to win juvenile hurdles, although this comes at a rate of 14.44% and, illustrating how difficult it can be to squeeze out further improvement from such types, only 21.67% would better their flat form over hurdles. Nevertheless, Milton Harris was able to do just that last season when Pyramid Place won three times for the master of The Beeches. Milton Harris's overall record in the sphere is fair without being strong, but while his first time strike rate is just 4.65%, he does hold the distinction among British trainers of having the highest number of juvenile debutants without any falls or unseats at forty-three. Although she is a great-granddaughter of Arc runner-up Aquarelliste, Aliomaana is not unfeasibly bred for her new career as Raven's Pass gets his fair share of winning juveniles as well as having a good improvement rate of 61.11%. Her dam is also a full-sister to this summer's useful hurdler Celestial Force. Aliomaana's overall profile makes her an interesting recruit to the sphere, although given that her new trainer could be in better form, she may be one to come on for this outing.

Fiamette chf Jo Davis f3-0-0 (56) 48
Free Eagle (Dr Fong){13-e}(0.57) 2/1 High Stratos 3rd 2m4f Conditions Hurdle, Punchestown 2015
Finishing eighth on all three starts on the all weather this winter, Fiamette's mark of 56 exceeds her accomplishments. Leaving Anthony Carson for Jo Davis, she joins a trainer who has had a couple of winning juveniles, although none of her twelve with official marks improved on their flat form. Free Eagle is a positive as he enjoyed three winners from his first crop, and the damline has several winning jumpers nearby in High Stratos (2/1), Poet (2/1), Vanishing Point (2/2) and Alum Bay (3/1). However, while Fiamette would have the potential to better her flat showings, there is still a large gap between herself and several of these.

Lanika chf Gary Brown f17-0-3 (45) 57
Outstrip (Dansili){22-a}(3.00) 3/1 Danking 6th 2m2?f Novices' Hurdle, Stratford 2021
The most experienced runner in this line-up, seventeen race maiden Lanika appears to be exposed as plating class. While she has placed at twelve furlongs, those were in slowly run affairs. Former inmates of Sylvester Kirk's have a good 25.81% winner runner rate and Gary Brown won this contest in 2012 with Hilali, although the aforementioned was some twenty pounds superior on the flat. Sire Outstrip is currently without a winner from two and the damline offers nothing for this sphere.

Strong prospects
1. Fred Bear
Reasonable prospects
2. Scrappy Jack
3. Scots Gold
4. Aliomaana
Feasible prospects
5. Sir Taweel
6. Colden's Passion
Moderate prospects
7. Devious Dreamer
8. Rhythmic Blues
Negligible prospects
9. Fiamette
10. Nayon
11. Lanika

[Kotkijet]

DIVISION TWO

Caramelised bc Alan King f4-0-0 (73) 75 j1-1-0 (-) 106 105
Dansili (Cozzene){9-e}(1.67) 2/2 Lord Condi 1st 2m1?f Novices' Hurdle, Plumpton 2018
On top of being the winningmost trainer of juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, Alan King has a winner to runner rate of 48.61% and an overall strike rate of 23.29%. His first time out rate was bolstered when Caramalised made a winning hurdles debut over this course and distance twenty-five days ago. A four race maiden for Richard Hannon, he had finished nearer last than first on all four outings and had shown himself a free running sort. Nevertheless, his rating of 73 was the highest BHA mark seen in the division to that point and he was sent off a steady 4/1 third favourite of eight. The concern over an inability to settle manifested in the contest itself as he pulled hard up to the point he was sent for home. Held up in touch from the outset, he moved to track the leaders going out onto the second circuit and travelled nicely to challenge for the lead entering the straight. Shaken up to take a length advantage on the approach to the last, it took no more than a hands and heels drive to quickly extend his lead and cross the line seven lengths to the good. Caramelised posted a safe round of jumping without being consistently fluent as he was slightly skewed at the first, big over the second, steep at the third, reached at the sixth and, while it did not cost him momentum, rather hopped over the final flight. Caramelised will need to settle better if he is to go up in grade, and as Alan King will almost certainly have stronger types for the coming season, the 40/1 currently offered for the Triumph Hurdle would make little appeal at this stage. Nevertheless, it was a pleasing debut performance overall and while his quirks might leave him vulnerable to a newcomer, he sets the clear standard of those with hurdles experience.

Aggagio bg Sophie Leech f7-2-2 (76) 79
Born To Sea (Verglas){16-a}(3.00) 3/1 Latest Dream 7th 2m?f Maiden Hurdle, Taunton 2009

https://www.equidia.fr/chevaux/aggagio

Starting his career in France, Aggagio finished his career there with a valeur of 36.5, and an emphatic success in a Morlaix claimer. He was under the care of Jean-Claude Rouget whose exports have a winner runner rate of 37.84% in the division, although the improvement rate from their flat ratings stands at just 15.15%. After being claimed for €15,007, he joined Sophie Leech under whom he has since ran with credit in handicaps at Haydock and Chepstow. Despite only beating one rival home during those two outings, he was beaten by less than four lengths each time while looking relatively straight forward in the process. His new trainer has enjoyed some success in the division as four of her sixteen juveniles have been winners, and she has no falls or unseats from fifty-seven starts. However, she is another with a modest improvement rate, is yet to have a winning newcomer from fifteen attempts and is currently on the cold list. Born To Sea has a solid record in the sphere, but there are no decent jumpers to be found on the damline until Kazlian at 5/3. Aggagio has some class about him and his profile is not without merit. However the trainer's profile and the sparse damline are enough to temper enthusiasm at this juncture.

Crane bg Nicky Henderson f6-1-1 (72) 77 j1-0-0 (-) 68 66
Oasis Dream (Pivotal){6-e}(1.82) 3/2 Little Green 1st Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle (G2), Fairyhouse 2011
Winning on the flat as a two-year-old for Michael Bell, Crane joined a leading trainer in Nicky Henderson for a new hurdling career which began over this course and distance late last month. After drifting from 9/4 to 3/1 in the morning, Crane was trimmed back into 11/4 to start the race as second favourite. However, while he was settled reasonably well and was in a good position behind the leaders, he was let down quite considerably by his jumping. Big and slow to get away from the first, he was slightly close to the second, steady and close at the third, and tight over the next three - the sixth he rather hopped over. Under pressure and losing ground from thereon, he was slow over the last and finished the race nearly forty lengths behind the winner. Poor jumping contributed to his undoing, although his stamina is also up for question and his being by Oasis Dream did not give great cause for optimism beforehand in any case. His representing Nicky Henderson will likely keep him of interest by default. However, it can be noted that none of the trainer's eight juveniles who finished outside of the front five first time out was able to score at the second time of asking, and there is no reason why he should bridge the gap with Caramelised on their previous meeting.

Gavin bg Joe Ponting f6-0-1 (50) 56
Bated Breath (Montjeu){16-c}(0.71) 2/1 Keys 2nd 2m1f Maiden Hurdle, Aintree 2011
Joe Ponting, who trained Dollydo to win a point-to-point at Tiverton when he was still at school, is set to have his first jumps runner under rules in Gavin. Formerly with Rod Millman, whose former charges have a respectable record in the sphere, Gavin showed nothing in his first three outings but was subject to a plunge on his handicap debut at Salisbury in late April. While the gamble went astray, he still posted a career best when third off 55. However, despite the gamble being repeated for his next outing, he ran disappointingly and his recent efforts have also seen the emergence of temperament issues. Sold for just 3,500 guineas at Tattersalls in July, there is a modicum of hope in the pedigree. Though Bated Breath's three juveniles have achieved little to date, winning jumpers Keys (2/1), Stanley Stanley (2/2) and Forto (3/1) appear on the damline and damsire Montjeu is a solid influence in the sphere. Nevertheless, while better might be expected during this new vocation, this would not be enough to create too much excitement in this company.

Gonna Go Viral brg Johnny Farrelly f4-0-0 (60) 58
Alhebayeb (Singspiel){16-a}(1.55) 2/2 Nina Candela 1st 3500m Handicap Hurdle (63,0), Enghien 2013
Since making his debut at Leopardstown in April, Gonna Go Viral has finished no closer than twenty-one lengths to the winner on four outings. His best effort came on his penultimate outing in a twelve furlong maiden at the same venue, but he was still fourteenth of eighteen having started at 400/1. New trainer Johnny Farrelly is still awaiting his first winner in the division after thirteen attempts, but the breeding offers some encouragement. Alhebayeb had two winners in his first crop last term, including the tough and promising Duffle Coat. Singspiel is a solid enough damsire in the sphere and cousin Nina Candela was a fairly useful hurdler in France. Gonna Go Viral may eventually find his level over hurdles, although this contest looks rather deep for him at this stage.

Prey For Glory bg Denis Quinn f9-0-5 (63) 70
Free Eagle (Shirocco){14-c}(0.64) 2/2 Mourad 2nd Champion 4YO Hurdle (G1), Punchestown 2009
The best bred runner across both divisions, Prey For Glory's pedigree would befit any serious juvenile hurdler. Sire Free Eagle, had his first crop last season which boasted three winners including the useful Coltor. Prey For Glory's cousin was the highly talented Mourad who along with landing four graded contests, also did well as a juvenile finishing third in the Triumph, second at the Punchestown Festival, and fourth in the Prix Alain du Breil. Other useful juveniles on the damline include Darter (3/1) and Maybewave (2/3). Prey For Glory's flat form is also respectable in this company as while he failed to win in nine starts for James Ferguson, he did finish third on five occasions including successive handicaps at Wolverhampton, Yarmouth and Windsor during the spring. Disappointing at Linfield in early June, he hinted at a return to form back at Yarmouth when last seen two months ago, although he did hang quite badly under pressure. Withdrawn from the Tattersalls July Sale, he has since joined Denis Quinn who has one win from twenty-one in the division. Prey For Glory is entitled to respect on his breeding, but the yard is without a jumps winner for over a year and while the flat form is acceptable, the absence and questionable attitude rather offset the positives.

Sabre Jet bg Amy Murphy f5-0-2 (62) 65
Zoffany (Teofilo){19-c}(1.46) 3/1 Corton 4th 2m4f Maiden Hurdle, Worcester 2005
Amy Murphy went without a winner in her first three seasons in the sphere, but she made a discernible impact last term with three individual winners giving her a 20.83% strike rate. Furthermore, she has sent out juvenile hurdlers on forty-one occasions and counting without a single fall or unseat to date. Her first runner in the sphere this season is set to be Sabre Jet, who posted his best effort to date last time out. His first two starts on turf did not match his all-weather outings over the winter. However, the application of tongue tie and cheekpieces, and a return to ten furlongs, saw him keep on well to finish second off 62 at Yarmouth nineteen days ago. Zoffany would not be an obvious jumping sire, but his winners to runners rate of 26.19% is a healthy one and he is also capable of getting decent types such as Sir Psycho and Zoffanien. Teofilo is almost as strong a damsire as he is a sire in the division with his broodmares boasting a winner/runner rate of 28.57%. The damline would be less encouraging, and the standard of flat form is a little behind a few of these. Nevertheless, Sabre Jet's attitude as well as his sirelines and trainer profile would not have a decent showing readily ruled out.

Von Melas bg Michael Easterby f3-0-1 (64) 53
Battle Of Marengo (Rock Of Gibraltar){16-c}(0.82) 2/1 Karawaan 2nd 2m Handicap Hurdle (106), Tipperary 2021
Though officially rated 64 after three spins on the flat, Von Melas only hinted at that type of mark last time out when plugging on to finish a fourteen length third at in a ten furlong novice stakes at Nottingham early this month. He still looked green on that occasion and similar to his stablemate in the first division, the mark has not enticed connections to try handicapping. Von Melas is feasibly bred to do better over hurdles as Battle Of Marengo has had three winning juveniles from nine, and while Rock Of Gibraltar is not as strong a damsire as sire, uncle Karawaan has managed to place over hurdles. The yard's over record in the sphere could be worse, but its first time out rate is a poor one.

Addosh bf Stuart Edmunds f11-1-4 (71) 78
The Gurkha (Dubawi){10-a}(0.63) 3/2 State Crown 1st 2m1f Handicap Hurdle (110), Newton Abbot 2021
Of all the trainers in Britain and Ireland who have had fifteen of more juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, only Henderson and Nicholls have a strike rate higher than Stuart Edmunds' 27.03%. Furthermore, when it comes to first time out winners, his strike rate of 42.86% is bettered only by Nicky Henderson and Desmond McDonogh. Hoping to maintain that record will be the 71 rated filly Addosh. Winless as a two-year-old, the application of the hood on her second start of 2021 saw her win a mile handicap at Thirsk by just under two lengths in ready fashion off a mark of 67. Though she failed to add to her tally, she continued in good form over her next three outings, putting up her best performance on her penultimate start when a staying on second over ten furlongs at Haydock at the start of July. The contest had an honest pace, the finish was contested by in form sorts and the winner and third have each won since. That would be her last start for Hugo Palmer and she sold for 15,000 guineas at the Tattersalls July Sale. Palmer's former inmates have a weak record in juvenile hurdles of one winner from sixteen, although Stuart Edmunds' other purchase at the same sale was another 15,000 guineas purchase, Wolf Of Windlesham, who would win three for the yard in 2015/16 including the Prestbury Hurdle. Addosh was slightly below form at Newmarket on her stable debut where her chances were compromised by her pulling hard, although she was not helped by the lack of early pace. The Gurkha is having his first crop of juvenile hurdlers and though one of Galileo's speedier sons, the sireline has a good record in the division and hurdlers Prospect Wells and Brooklyn's Gold do appear on his damline at 3/1. Damsire Dubawi has a 28.57% winner to runner rate in that role which includes Leoncavallo and State Crown - the latter being a 3/2 relative of Addosh who won a handicap hurdle as a juvenile last season. For all that Stuart Edmunds is quite seriously underestimated in this sphere, his clear round rate of 91.89% is not the highest, and it remains to be seen if Addosh's keenness last time was due to the pace or a more embedded issue. Nevertheless, there are still enough positives in her profile to make her worthy of serious attention in this contest.

Baby Sham bf Seamus Mullins f11-1-5 (62) 66 j1-0-0 (-) 70 66
Sir Percy (Shamardal){4-o}(1.00) 3/2 Shubaat 1st 3m Handicap Hurdle (130), Southwell 2014
A winner on her penultimate flat outing for Stuart Williams, Baby Sham received some support at longer odds before her jumps bow at Newton Abbot five weeks ago. Being a daughter of Sir Percy and distant relative of winners Shubaat (3/1), Jefferson Davis (3/1) and Well Chief (5/4) her prospects were not unfeasible. She skewed over the first and went through the top of the second, but jumped better in midfield prior to blundering at three out. Still in third place rounding the home turn, she had little else to give from thereon and was beaten fifteen lengths in the end. The trip ought not to have been an issue and a more reasonable explanation for her poor finishing would likely be her five month absence. Baby Sham would not have any grand aspirations in the game and has a bit to find with a few of these. Nevertheless, she should be able to leave that form behind eventually and the yard has had a winner at this venue in the past, even if their charges typically need a few races before finding their better form.

Free Degrees rof Sarah-Jayne Davies f3-0-0 (37) 39 j1-0-0 (-) 61 67
Free Eagle (Verglas){5-g}(0.65) 4/1 Englishtown 1st 2m5?f Handicap Hurdle (120), Southwell 2009
Apart from being a daughter of Free Eagle, Free Degrees had little going for her ahead of her jumps introduction at Uttoxeter a month ago. This was reflected in her starting price of 200/1. Though late and big at the first, she jumped reasonably while tracking the leaders from the outset. She was slightly baulked on landing at the sixth but was still within a couple of lengths of the lead turning from home. However, she had been relegated to fifth place at three out and had nothing else to give from thereon. Free Degrees travelled and jumped nicely enough, but would probably need to get in off a very low mark in order to eventually be competitive in this sphere.

Strong prospects
1. Addosh
Reasonable prospects
2. Caramelised
3. Sabre Jet
Feasible prospects
4. Aggagio
5. Prey For Glory
6. Baby Sham
Moderate prospects
7. Crane
8. Von Melas
9. Gonna Go Viral
Negligible prospects
10. Free Degrees
11. Gavin

[Kotkijet]

Here is the review for division one of today's juvenile hurdle at Stratford. The one for division two should hopefully be up for tomorrow morning.

Preview review
Very difficult to be disappointed with that one. Move Scrappy Jack two places down and the first five are in the correct order. The well backed Fred Bear, who was 5/2 in the morning, was given strong prospects as he set the standard and had the course experience that Scrappy Jack did not. Aliomaana started the day at 33/1 in places but went well for a long way, trading as low as 3.9 in-running before running out of steam. Scrappy Jack was slightly disappointing, but he merely demonstrated that Newton Abbot suited better. 200/1 shot Fiamette, who was still beaten 57 lengths, rather disrupted the streak yet even her potential improvement was mentioned on account of her pedigree. To look for any discernible flaws would be to tilt at windmills. If only all the other previews worked out like this one.

Race review
The second division patently had the better winner, but while it also appeared to have more depth beforehand, it was the first division that saw more participants run to a reasonable level of form.
The pace set was strong but measured, and the field was strung out for a long way. The protagonists travelled well enough and jumped respectably for the most part. They each had every right to finish as they did and while the fourth did not run to his previous winning form, he may be something of a course specialist. The second and third could possibly improve past the winner with experience, but as it stands, the form looks solid.

Fred Bear was modest on the flat, but his trainer and pedigree suggested better could come over hurdles. Following a promising debut at Newton Abbot, he has improved with each outing and finally earned his deserved success at the fourth time of asking. Assuming his customary front running role, he went straight into a clear lead with only a couple of rivals attempting to pursue. Going out onto the second circuit, he increased his lead to the best part of a dozen lengths and while his rivals closed when he took a breather over the hill, he still had a three length cushion turning for home which he would maintain to the line. Without ever being bad, the consistency of his hurdling had fluctuated between runs going into this race. However, he jumped with neatness and aplomb this time around and he was still able to tidily find his feet when a little late at the sixth. Either feeling the effects of his exertions, or losing a bit of concentration, he was low and untidy at the penultimate flight, and rather missed the last where he stumbled on landing. Nevertheless, he recovered quickly on each occasion and never looked in danger of getting caught before the line. This performance marks a new career best for Fred Bear and is one which justifies his previously stiff looking handicap mark. In essence, he ran the perfect race for a horse of his ability and it can not be said with confidence that there is much more scope remaining for further improvement. In the right contest, he can defy a penalty and can also be competitive in handicaps off this kind of mark. Fred Bear may also find a few pounds through his willing attitude, although it will do for now to appreciate this performance for what it was. 106

Scots Gold did not reach the frame on the flat for Tom Dascombe, but he ran to a fair standard and his pedigree is reasonable for this discipline. New trainer Dan Skelton has a fine record in the sphere, although he has not been at his usual standard as of late and while Scots Gold started the day as favourite, he would drift from a morning 7/4 to 3/1 at the off. Settled in mid-division some way off the pace, he made steady headway along the back before coming under a drive going over the hill. While he managed to get to within a few lengths of the winner approaching the home turn, and was able to outlast the long time pursuer, he was unable to make further inroads along the straight. He still had upwards of ten lengths over his remaining rivals and his jumping was good for a debutant; his only errors being a bit late at the fourth, which he still negotiated well, and getting slightly slightly close at three out. A likeable debut with a performance close to his flat best, Scots Gold can improve for this experience and will be of further interest when his yard goes through the gears. 103

Aliomaana placed twice on the flat for John Gosden prior to joining Milton Harris, and brought the highest flat rating into this contest. Pyramid Place made the same journey last season prior to winning three in the division, yet Aliomaana was still available at 33/1 in the morning. She was eventually backed down to 12/1 by the off and she was the only horse to seriously pursue the winner from the outset. She was fairly keen in the early stages, but settled better going on the second circuit. The gap between herself and the leader fluctuated and while she still held second turning into the straight, she had little left and ultimately had to settle for a thirteen length third. Milton Harris has yet to have a juvenile debutant fall or unseat, but Aliomaana did make a few minor errors - namely hopping through some of the earlier jumps, slightly skewing over the fifth and, when probably tired, steadying at the last where she went to her left. Notwithstanding, this was a pleasing debut for the most part and while her tiring late on meant she ran below her flat form, there was enough to build on to suggest she should be more competitive in this discipline before long. 86

Scrappy Jack ran no race on his debut on the flat in early June, but his hurdles debut at Newton Abbot was not without promise and he subsequently improved to land a double at that venue the following month. Shouldering a double penalty, Scrappy Jack was steady in the ring and was sent off the 4/1 third favourite. Initially leading the peloton while settled off the pace, he lost his position passing the stands and was off the bridle going onto the second lap. Though he plugged on to go into fourth turning for home, the race had left him well behind at that point and was beaten thirty-three lengths in the end. Despite being untidy after wandering into the first, and steadying going into the third, Scrappy Jack probably posted his cleanest round to date. His coming off the bridle so soon may have suggested something was amiss, but he has raced lazily in the past and it is more likely that he is better suited to Newton Abbot than Stratford. This was still some way below his best and unless he finds a weak contest around a favourable circuit, Scrappy Jack is likely to struggle under his penalty and his inflated BHA rating. 83

Sir Taweel won a mile handicap on the flat off 56 for Mohamed Moubarak in April and while he failed to progress from there, his trainer and pedigree suggest he can find his level in this sphere. However, he did not make the most compelling of debuts as he did not leave the rear of the field until passing tailed off rivals after the race had finished as a contest. His cause was hindered by the hurdles he encountered early on and while he can not be blamed for getting badly baulked on landing at the first, his being very steady and close at the second, and big and ungainly at the third, were his own doing. The yard's charges typically improve with experience and while Sir Taweel accomplished very little here, he is not a forlorn hope just yet. 53

Fiamette was poor at best during three outings for Anthony Carson this winter, although her pedigree gave her some hope of doing better over hurdles. Racing in a first time visor, she gave chase to the two leaders and was not beaten off until dropping away towards the end of the back. Her hurdling was slow and steady to begin with, but she jumped better when ridden into her flights. Fiamette is a long way from being competitive in any contest, but it is not unfeasible that she might eventually play a role if she can race off a low enough mark. 42

Colden's Passion is a rare juvenile hurdler for Colin Tizzard, rarer still in that he raced on the flat for the master of Venn Farm. His best form in that sphere was rather fair, but it had deteriorated in recent outings and his breeding is not an obvious one for his new vocation. Racing off the pace but prominent in the main pack, he briefly went into fourth along the back but was beaten a long way from home. His jumping was not particularly fluent as he skewed at the second, was early and untidy at the third, slow away from the sixth and close at two out. Beaten over seventy lengths in the end, there is little encouragement to be drawn either from his profile or from this performance. 35

Rhythmic Blues finished towards the rear in three outings over a mile this year, and his allotted mark of 63 did not entice connections to try a handicap. Unfancied in the market, he never left the rear and young Tom Midgley did well to maintain the partnership after his mount skewed badly at the second. Rhythmic Blues' jumping was otherwise big and slow throughout and he finished tailed off. 28

Lanika was the most experienced runner in the line-up but was also exposed as modest as she held a rating of just 45 after seventeen races. Sent off at 100/1, she was very steady and big at the first, big and slow at the second, and while her jumping improved marginally from there, she lost her place in the pack shortly after passing the stands and finished virtually pulled up. 0

Nayon was poor on the flat, started this race at 250/1, never left the rear and was pulled up along the back. To his credit, he was quite clever to jump out of the way of a slow jumper at the second, but that is the only positive to be drawn from this performance. 0

Devious Dreamer had winning form on the flat in Ireland and his mark of 72 was respectable in this company. He opened at 10/1 in the ring but he was more than twice that price at the off. His hurdling was not fluent, but it was not the worst either. However, stamina was a major concern coming into this contest and he was struggling a long way from home before pulling up along the back. 0

[Kotkijet]

Preview review
The first two had the strongest prospects and while they finished in reverse order, the runner-up was a decent price. Nevertheless, there is still an element of lamentation since the winner should have been given the strong prospects. Hurdles experience was mentioned as important at a track like Stratford, the concern about the winner's pulling did not stop him scoring first time, and while the runner-up was clear best of the rest, the concerns about her jumping and tendency to pull should have kept her from top position. Everything else in behind was beaten by at least a distance so estimating which of these were under or overestimated would be a fairly trivial exercise.

Race review
With the previous course winner being a bit of a handful, and several of the newcomers having feasible profiles, this contest looked like it might have been more competitive than the betting indicated. However, this turned out to be an utter demolition job from the previous course and distance winner which, unusually for a summer jumper, propelled him to the top of the Triumph Hurdle market. The pace was strong but uneven as the lead changed hands depending on which horse had pulled himself to the front. Along with some buzzy performances, outside of the winner, the quality of jumping was also somewhat below par. The winning time was just over a second slower than in the first division, although the winner did complete the run-in over a second quicker despite being held on the bridle. From a form perspective, it is difficult to view the race as much beyond "Caramelised first, rest nowhere" since the winner was so superior, everything else looked much of a muchness. The runner-up had the most potential of the newcomers and given that she was keen in patches and made errors, should also emerge as second best going forward. The third jumped and travelled better than first time out but was still two-and-a-half stones away from his flat form.

Caramelised was winless in four outings for Richard Hannon and his mark of 73 did not look especially generous. A switch to hurdles may have been moved forward by said mark, but though he pulled hard on his jumps debut over this course and distance, he was still a most convincing winner and the form has since been boosted by the placed horses each going one better next time. Backed as though defeat was out of the question, he went from 4/7 to 4/9 in the ring, causing all his rivals to be squeezed out by his market share. Initially tucked in just behind the leaders, he settled better than he had first time around and though he was lit up after the third, Tom Cannon regained the bit by the time they reached the hill second time which is also where Caramelised moved stylishly into the lead. Shaken up ever so gently on the turn for home, he entered the straight with an advantage of half-a-dozen lengths and without any impetus from the rider, that gap was extended to thrice that amount at the line. Apart from getting slightly big at the first and maybe brushing the top of two out, Caramelised put in an exhibition round of jumping that would not have looked out of place during a veteran hurdler's schooling session. Furthermore, the fact that he completed the run-in in a faster time than the previous race while on the bridle shows that he has a tremendous amount of speed for the division. His tendency to race freely might become a concern when the stiffer competition emerges, but he was still better than last time which is encouraging given that he is still an entire. Ironically, stablemate Midnights Legacy was another entire tried in the division last term with a view to a stallion career in the longer term. While the aforementioned may do better if returning to the sphere, Caramelised has already proven himself a natural and being a son of Dansili, would not look out of place on a National Hunt stallion roster - particularly as six of his ten sons to have tried have produced winning juveniles and the sadly departed Zoffany had been compiling quite the record. In the nearer, less fanciful future, Market Rasen's September contest was nominated as Caramelised's next target and it is a race that his trainer has used for some good juveniles in the past including City Dreamer, Cracker Factory, Silencio and, more notably, Franchoek and Katchit. A lot can happen in the space of a month, but Caramelised is currently a stone better than anything else seen domestically in the division and unless one of the French recruits is introduced in Lincolnshire's showpiece, it will take the emergence of something very good to challenge him. Caramelised was cut to 25/1 joint favourite for the Triumph after this performance and while that price would make little appeal at this juncture, his opening price of 40/1 now looks quite reasonable. 120

Addosh amassed a win and three places on the flat for Hugo Palmer and her BHA mark of 71 made her strong at the weights in this contest. Her pedigree is not without its potential, although the greatest strength in her profile lay in her joining a Stuart Edmunds who invariably punches above his weight in this sphere. Steady in the market throughout the day, she did drift out to 15/2 on course, but this was on account of the confidence behind the winner and she still started second favourite. Held up in the early stages, she pulled hard in patches but was able to settle reasonably well before too long. Towards the rear at the fifth, she made robust headway in a short amount of time along the back and was travelling strongly just behind the leaders two flights later. She was the last pursuer still on the bridle approaching the home turn, but had been completely outpaced by the winner who was long gone before they could see the stands. Nevertheless, while no match for the winner, the remainder of the field were left in her wake and there were sixteen and thirteen lengths between herself, the third and the fourth. Addosh jumped some of her hurdles quite well, although she was steep at the first, very untidy at the third and low at the last while also showing a slight tendency to go right. Overall, it was a satisfactory introduction and while she was a class below the winner, there was enough to suggest she has a future in this sphere. Though not a headcase, she could still settle better which might enable her to run a more consistent race insofar as pace is concerned. Better hurdling should come with experience and she may even be served by going right handed. Addosh has built herself a decent foundation and with ample scope for improvement, she should be a nice recruit to the sphere. 79

Crane won a nursery on the flat for Michael Bell, but his seemingly being handicapped to the hilt saw him move to Seven Barrows for a hurdling campaign. Although his trainer has an outstanding record in the sphere, Crane's pedigree did not give cause for optimism and his jumps bow over this course and distance was lacklustre. Poor jumping contributed to his disappointment first time around but while he was steady, close and untidy at the first here, he hurdled better from thereon, making only minor errors occasionally. Keen in the early stages, he went to the front from flagfall but eventually managed to settle better when an even more headstrong animal gave him a lead. Crane briefly moved back to the front climbing the hill but was easily brushed aside in a matter of strides by the winner. The runner-up also had his measure quite comfortably but Crane was able to win the battle for third from a very tired rival. While losing ground on the winner between their outings, Crane did improve by a few pounds from his hurdling debut. He is still a long way from his two-year-old form and unless he is given a generous handicap mark, would need to keep modest company if he is to be competitive any time soon. 70

Prey For Glory finished third in half of his flat outings for James Ferguson, and while his BHA rating had dropped half a stone to 63, his form was not disgraceful. There is encouragement in his pedigree for this switch in codes as his being a Free Eagle cousin of Mourad positively screams juvenile hurdler. Held up in the rear and still a long way behind approaching the hill, he made some late headway to plug on for a distant fourth. His jumping lacked fluency as he was slightly skewed at the first, badly skewed at the second and after getting baulked at the fifth, was early and untidy at the next before clipping the last. The bare form is worth little in and of itself, but the performance was not devoid of promise and he may be able to do his pedigree more justice when getting more give in the ground. 57

Sabre Jet was fairly ordinary on the flat, but he had been improving during the summer and ran a career best last time out in first time tongue-tie and cheekpieces. Representing an Amy Murphy whose latest season in the sphere was a good one, he was clipped a couple of points in the ring to start at 12/1. Held up in touch, he was still just about amongst the leading group crossing the hill, but was soon losing touch and though he entered the straight in third place, he was a spent force and weakened from thereon. His early jumping was not bad, but it rather deteriorated as the race progressed. While Sabre Jet showed glimmers of promise, he found this trip beyond him and may appreciate a sharper test in his quest to match his flat ability. 55

Von Melas only showed form on his recent return to the course after a winter break, but he was still beaten nearly fifteen lengths in a Nottingham novice stakes and his mark of 64 looked stiff. Racing keenly in the rear, his hurdling lacked fluency and he merely passed beaten horses towards the end. Though Von Melas is still unexposed, he has yet to show he can be competitive in open company. 49

Aggagio's flat form was the strongest from that sphere in this line-up, and sire Born To Sea has a solid record with juvenile hurdlers. Drifting from 6/1 to 9/1 during the day, he was clipped in half a point prior to the off. He raced in touch for much of the contest, but lacked confidence at most jumps and lost his position along the back before eventually finishing tailed off. He is probably capable of better but there was not much encouragement to be drawn from this outing. 47

Gavin had shown only moderate form on the flat for Rod Millman, but the damline does feature numerous winning jumpers. Completely unfancied in the market, starting at 125/1, he was initially held up in the rear. However, after getting baulked on landing at the second, he became lit up and pulled himself into a clear lead. He stumbled on the path approaching the third, but was able to recover in time to get over the flight safely enough and his jumping was reasonable from there. However, his exertions had taken their toll by the penultimate flight and he weakened rapidly before being the last to finish. There were some positives to be drawn from his speed and generally safe and sage jumping, although he would not be approached with optimism going forward on the basis of this performance or his overall profile. 33

Baby Sham won on her penultimate flat start for Stuart Williams and though fading late on, was not disgraced on her hurdling debut at Newton Abbot five weeks earlier. Apart from a few novicey jumps at the second, third and two out, her hurdling was not too bad. However, she never reached midfield and was struggling along the back prior to pulling up before the last. A low handicap mark could be a saving grace, but her bare form and the way she has been finishing her races are a concern as stamina ought not to be an issue. 0

Gonna Go Viral collected nothing but fat duck eggs for Matthew Smith in Ireland, but his pedigree is not the worst for the game. Sent off at 66/1, he raced amongst the main body and jumped reasonably for the most part before struggling at the hill and eventually pulling up. 0

Free Degrees raced keenly and prominently on her hurdles debut at Uttoxeter prior to fading. She did the same here except she faded even earlier and was detached when pulling up before two out after a very tired jump at the previous flight. 0

Still homeless and unemployed so will begrudgingly ask people to like and share on twitter (provided you think the review is alright of course!)

https://twitter.com/HarchibaldS/status/1430104807268888589

[Kotkijet]

Apologies for missing the Down Royal contest. While living in temporary accommodation is a situation gratefully preferred to the alternative, it is still a building which houses a lot of trauma that often manifests very audibly at very inconvenient hours. This on top of the early starts necessitated by my volunteering role means that I have spent the past week as a grouchy and inattentive zombie. Accordingly, while I will attempt to stay on top of this project to the best of my abilities, the best of my abilities will be curtailed for the foreseeable future. That said, this can be mitigated if any betting shop managers in the Stockport/South Manchester area fancy hiring a cashier who has absolutely zero interest in being a betting shop manager... Sleep willing, the Down Royal review should not be too long in the offing. In the meantime, the absolute joy which is Cartmel. If one were to look up the word "idiosyncratic" in the dictionary, you will find a dry description of the word "idiosyncratic". Nevertheless, if horse racing were to ever release an illustrated dictionary of the turf, a picture of Cartmel racecourse will likely accompany the definition. Set in the glorious South Lakes and nestled between the woods and the priory, it is essentially a funfair surrounded by a racecourse. While even the child version of this author would lament that those raucous children seemed more interested in the irrelevant festivities than the racing itself - a sentiment which has gotten worse with age and has expanded to encompass a large section of the racegoing public - it is not for nothing that this charming venue is a favourite of all who have made a visit. Good horses have graced the Cumbrian carnival with 2011 winner Countrywide Flame being the most notable, 2014 winner Vosne Romanee becoming a useful sort, while Silver Streak rather surprisingly finished fourth here in 2016 on his hurdling debut. However, given its rather novel nature, participants in Cartmel's juvenile hurdles are typically a modest breed with only Fakenham having an inferior winner's seasonal RPR. Apart from the home stretch being located on the track's inner, there is not a great deal idiosyncratic about the hurdles course itself. A tight, flat, left handed circuit, the winning juvenile DIs of 1.33 median, 1.88 mean are predictably higher than average - although against those of the average runner, they are still quite low comparatively which ties into the notion that speedy flat breds will not get an easy ride. A point further illustrated by the fact that while the clear round rate of 96.23% is close to bang average, the completion rate of 81.13% is the ninth lowest in the division. All five odds-on favourites in Cartmel's juveniles since 2004/05 have justified their favouritism and with the median winner's SP being the third lowest in the country at 2.81, it is not a course prone to surprise results. Those with racecourse experience have a much stronger strike rate than newcomers (17.57% to 5.88%) and the strike rate for horses bringing winning hurdles form jumps up to 38.46%. The field here is headed by one such horse in Donald McCain's Sacre Pierre, while the Britain's first Munir/Souede juvenile of the season heads the three strong opposition. The going is currently described as good with warm and cloudy weather forecast between now and post time. Sacre Pierre bg Donald McCain j1-1-0 (-) 94 104 On Est Bien (Goldneyev){8-a}(1.22) 1/1 Gold Tweet 1st Prix Hopper (G3 4yo Chase), Compiegne 2021 An unraced horse with a good French pedigree prior to making a winning debut at Uttoxeter, Sacre Pierre is a full-brother to the good young jumper Gold Tweet along with two others who have shown respectable form in Apollo Creed and Chuck Bass. Granddam Jance was a good three-year-old hurdler in 1996 while the 1999 Prix Alain du Breil third Kidder appears at 3/1 on the damline. Fetching €8,000 at the Osarus two-year-old breeze up, his trainer Donald McCain has a strong record in the sphere with a 29.09% winners to runners rate, and a record in this contest of two wins and a place from seven runners. There was not a great deal of confidence in the market ahead of his Uttoxeter bow seven weeks ago as he drifted from a morning show of 11/2 before starting the race at twice that price. Nevertheless, he settled nicely in the rear and was not asked to make his move until three furlongs from home. Though his response to being shaken up was not immediate, he got to within a length of the leaders at the last and showed very good acceleration once given the office by Brian Hughes to win by six lengths. Irishracing reported that Sacre Pierre was "not that fluent", but this does him a disservice. While he was sticky at the second, a bit late at the fifth and got close to the last, his better jumps outweighed his flawed ones and he was actually quite neat by and large. It would be premature to speculate on Sacre Pierre's ceiling and this performance alone offers no promise of greatness. Nevertheless, it is still one of the better efforts seen to date and with a solid foundation and scope for further improvement, he will be a tough nut to crack in this field. Forever Forward bc Peter Bowen f8-0-4 (78) 84 Exceed And Excel (Teofilo){16-h}(1.13) 3/1 High Day 4th Scottish County Hurdle (123), Musselburgh 2006 Soldatino, Peace And Co, Top Notch, Bristol de Mai and Grandouet are but a small sample of the talented juvenile hurdlers owned over the years by Munir & Souede, and Forever Forward is set to be the first to carry the green and green in the sphere this term. Costing 105,000 guineas as a yearling, Forever Forward ran eight times on the flat for Clive Cox and comes here with an official mark of 78 which puts him in the 87th percentile of rated newcomers. Though he failed to find the winners' enclosure, he came close on a couple of occasions and would likely have landed a four runner handicap at Nottingham in May but for hanging under pressure. He maintained his form next time at Sandown when headed inside the final furlong, but would beat only one home on his return to that venue when last seen nearly two months ago. Former inmates of Clive Cox have a fair winner to runner rate of 15.15% in the division, and Forever Forward is set to be the first of his owners' horses to run for Peter Bowen. The Pembrokeshire handler enjoyed some success in the division with Serabad in 2007/08, although his overall record in the sphere is not prolific. Sending out twenty-five juvenile hurdlers since 2004/05, only three of whom would be winners, he has not experienced a first or second time out scorer and his last runner came in December 2019. Forever Forward's pedigree is also patchy as Exceed and Excel has enjoyed just one winning juvenile from eighteen and the closest relative with hurdling form, prior to Totalize at 4/3, is the fair hurdler High Day at 3/1. While the high rating entitles Forever Forward to respect, and Peter Bowen has an overall strike rate of 25% at Cartmel, enthusiasm is tempered by the patchy profile and potentially dubious attitude. So Savvy chg Rebecca Menzies f2-0-0 (-) 64 Sepoy (Haafhd){4-m}(3.00) 3/1 Elaando 1st Juvenile Maiden Hurdle, Folkestone 1999 Though yet to break into the upper echelons of the training ranks, Rebecca Menzies did enjoy her highest tally of winners last season and her record in juvenile hurdles is a respectable one given her ammunition. Along with a solid two winners from nine thus far, five of her eight qualifying charges have improved for the switch between codes, with the 62.50% rate far exceeding the 38.42% standard. Her first runner this term is set to be the twice raced maiden So Savvy. Making his debut at Newcastle in late June, he ran green but was not disgraced when finishing midfield, running to a mark in the mid-sixties. However, he was unable to build on that effort when last seen at Ripon in early July as while he was close up for a long way, he weakened passing the distance before finishing over a seventeen length eighth of eleven. The pedigree does not give rise to optimism either as Sepoy is winless from nine runners in the sphere, Haafhd's fine record as a sire has not been carried by his broodmares, and while Dodging Bullets (4/2) and Elgin (4/4) appear in the shadows of the damline, the nearest winning jumper is the fair Elaando at 3/1. The Bravest rog Iain Jardine f5-0-2 (67) 71 j1-0-0 (-) 78 79 Jukebox Jury (Silvano){8-b}(0.45) 2/1 Townshend 1st 3m Handicap Chase (136), Ascot 2020 Beginning the year with a rating of 71, which came courtesy of a narrow second in a Pontefract nursery during the Autumn, The Bravest failed to show on his reappearance, although his sixth of seven three weeks prior to his hurdles bow at Market Rasen was at least a step in the right direction. A son of Jukebox Jury and a nephew of the useful staying chaser Townshend, The Bravest represents a yard with a fair record in the sphere. He was the best backed horse on his hurdling debut, starting at 16/5 having been available at 7/1 during the morning. However, his jumping was very poor in the early stages as he skewed quite erratically over the first four flights. His hurdling marginally improved from there and after leaving the back in last position, he made some headway on the home turn. However, was unable to maintain his progress and was never dangerous. Beaten thirteen lengths in the end, The Bravest is probably capable of showing more now his yard is in better form. However, he may benefit from a sterner test of stamina and has plenty to find with Sacre Pierre. Oustanding prospects 1. Sacre Pierre Reasonable prospects 2. Forever Forward Feasible prospects 3. The Bravest Moderate prospects 4. So Savvy

[Kotkijet]

Preview review
Ignoring the atrocious formatting of the above post... Difficult to have gotten this one wrong, market being what it was. Nevertheless, first four in the correct order with the winner winning as one with "outstanding prospects" should means there is no real cause for reflection here.

Race review
A four runner affair which only briefly threatened to deviate from expectations. The runners did not jump particularly well although the winner did tidy up his hurdling after halfway. Nothing can be drawn from the winning time as it was the slowest on the card against the standard, as well as being the slowest but one (ran on soft) of the previous renewals over the same trip. The runner-up failed to match his flat form and while those with experience improved on their debut efforts, it would only be by an arbitrary amount. Given that the field finished strung out in market order, there is no real reason to doubt the form as it stands.

Sacre Pierre made a winning racecourse debut at Uttoxeter five weeks earlier and this well-bred youngster set the standard on that performance. A solid, long odds-on favourite, Sacre Pierre initially tucked in behind the leaders before going to the front entering the wood side second time round. His early jumping lacked fluency as he was steady and close at the first two before clipping the fourth. However, he soon remembered his job at the halfway stage and was neat over the next three. Though he was briefly and narrowly headed leaving the back, Sacre Pierre soon found another gear to see off his challenger. He did wander quite erratically on the approach to the last, but this was much more likely due to a lapse in concentration than any temperament concerns as he was smooth around all of the other turns, and ran true along the run-in. Beyond his being in good shape and confirming the promise of his debut, not much more was learned of Sacre Pierre. The bare form is nothing special, but he can jump well and is not short of an engine so while there is nothing controversial about his remaining at 66/1 for the Triumph, it will be interesting to see how far he can go when stepping up in class. 109

Forever Forward has a higher flat rating than most recruits to the division and his running in the double green is bound to draw some interest. He is a rare juvenile for Peter Bowen and the first Souede/Munir runner for his new trainer, although some of his schooling had been conducted under the care of Henrietta Knight who won the Anniversary Hurdle with Stompin in 1995. Drifting from 15/8 to 11/4 during the day's trading, Forever Forward drifted further in the ring and was sent off as 4/1 second favourite. He attempted to dispute the lead in the early exchanges, but he gave his hurdles enough air to cost him ground and momentum at each flight and was relegated to third on leaving the wood side first time. Off the bridle on the approach to two out, he made heavy weather of making any inroads on the leader and would only take second on the run-in. The performance was a fair way off his flat form, but it was an outing marked by inexperience and the possible application of scissors and/or headgear may bring about enough improvement for him to be competitive in this sphere. 92

The Bravest was not unfancied on his Market Rasen hurdling bow at the beginning of the month, but poor hurdling let him down and he failed to justify the support. He was once again the subject of confidence and was sent off at 9/2 having been available at 10/1 in the ring at one point. Going straight into the lead, his poor hurdling threatened to re-emerge as he was very steady, big and slow at the first. However, Conor O'Farrell made his mount's mind up from there and The Bravest responded with much more fluent jumps over the next couple of flights. Foreshadowing the winner's antics at the last, The Bravest wandered around on the approach to the fourth and while he got over it well enough, this was sufficient to light him up for a while. He was not hurdling fluently from there and he would lose his lead going onto the wood side second time. The Bravest briefly regained an advantage on the long run between the last two, but was left behind once the winner found another gear and an untidy jump at the last saw him lose second shortly after. This was an improvement from his introduction at the start of the month, but he will need moderate company to be challenging for a win at this juncture and may be suited either by time or a generous handicap mark. 87

So Savvy made his first racecourse appearance with a midfield placing at Newcastle in June, but was unable to match that effort at Ripon on his only subsequent outing. He received some support at long odds during the day, but more than trebled in price in the ring and started the race at 66/1. Rather fractious at the start, he began the race in last place and would keep a firm grip of this position throughout. His hurdling left plenty to be desired as along with reaching at his flights, he also had a habit of stumbling on landing. So Savvy was still just about in touch leaving the back, but would be allowed to come home in his own time once the race had left him behind. 38

[Mighty]

Interesting write up - I’ve paid more attention to the juvenile hurdlers since I spotted your previews, and had a dabble on Sacre Pierre as part of a multiple. Totally agree with your assessment, and the race doesn’t really advance the sum of human knowledge as to how good a Triumph prospect he’ll be. He certainly had me catching my breath before the last, but one to keep an eye on for the future.

Just wanted to say thanks, and appreciate the effort you’ve put into the project. Hope you find something fruitful in the near future.

[Kotkijet]

Interesting write up - I’ve paid more attention to the juvenile hurdlers since I spotted your previews, and had a dabble on Sacre Pierre as part of a multiple. Totally agree with your assessment, and the race doesn’t really advance the sum of human knowledge as to how good a Triumph prospect he’ll be. He certainly had me catching my breath before the last, but one to keep an eye on for the future.

Just wanted to say thanks, and appreciate the effort you’ve put into the project. Hope you find something fruitful in the near future.

Appreciate it Mighty

Didn't have a penny on the race (as per usual) so while I might otherwise have had a nervy moment before the last, the detachment allowed me to accept it as simple inexperience. If only I could always be this zen

Hope the rest of your multiple did the business!