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Thank you, KOMC 
Irish Hill possibly a fortunate winner, although seeing as Graystoke was ended his round with a couple of tired leaps having jumped well beforehand, I am not convinced that he would not have tied up on the run-in. Five from five is pretty good for December so let's see if the momentum is maintained going into 2022...
MUSSELBURGH - 1st JANUARY - PREVIEW
2021 kicks off with a Grey Bomber (named after the ill-fated juvenile of Denys Smith) qualifier at the very Musselburgh where the ?30,000 final is due to be hosted in March. Typically over half a stone stronger than the standard race at the venue, it also serves as a step towards the Scottish Triumph Trial with five horses reaching the frame in both races since 2014 and last season's winner, Fiveandtwenty, winning in both before finishing third in the Anniversary at Aintree. Furthermore, Project Bluebook and Nietzsche, first and third in 2017, would go on to finish fourth and third respectively in that season's Fred Winter. Next year's renewal looks up to scratch with two fairly useful winning hurdlers taking on a pair of intriguing recruits, with a couple of Iain Jardine's representing the Scottish contingent. A sharp and almost flat left-handed track, Musselburgh's average winning DIs of 1.26 median, 1.41 mean are on the higher side of standard and its clear round rate of 96.27% is close to average. Odds-on favourites have a decent strike rate of 70.97%, the median winning SP of 2/1`is the fifth lowest in Britain. Newcomers have a somewhat lower chance against experienced rivals than at other venues, but their clear round rate 96.88% is actually higher than the average; one of a handful of racecourses where this is the case. All of this combines to indicate that Musselburgh is one of the most straightforward racecourses around. In this particular contest, of which there have been eight runnings, newcomers have a strike rate of 20% with an impact value 1.38 while previous winners have similar figures of 21.43% and 1.47 respectively. Previous course experience is not a particularly telling factor although winning form at Musselburgh is a positive with with such horses having a 28.26% strike rate. Furthermore, five previous course winners have taken in this contest with all of them reaching the frame and two of them passing the post in front. Despite the small field, most of these horses have either led or raced prominently so a strong pace looks likely. The going is currently described as good to soft, soft in places, with breezes and light rain anticipated in the interim.
Collingham bg Donald McCain f13-3-4 (33,0-72.6) 82 j2-1-1 (123) 118 121
Samum (Mull of Kintyre){6-d}(0.78) 0.5 Chez Hans 1st 2m2?f Handicap Hurdle (131), Newton Abbot 2021
Juvenile hurdlers bought out of French flat claimers have solid winner to runner rate of 22.81% which increases to 32% when the horse won its claimer. Adagio and Noble Request are two notable examples, although few will develop into much above average. Nevertheless, Donald McCain's first juvenile to come out of a French claimer, Collingham, has made a promising start to his hurdling career. Initially with Christian von der Recke, Collingham first racecourse appearance came in a Compiegne claimer last October where he won by three lengths, and was claimed afterwards for €30,009 to join Fabrice Vermeulen. Runner-up on his remaining three outings at two, he began 2021 with a valeur of 39 (85.8 BHA) but his poor runs outnumbered his good and that mark would drop six kilos in the run-up to July. That month saw him dropped into a modest Aix-les-Bains claimer over 2500m on soft ground. Held up in midfield, he was outpaced on the turn for home but though he made a meal of going through the gears, he was able to hit the front 100m out and regain the winning thread by a length. His final start in France came in a slightly better claimer at Clairefontaine in similar conditions. Here, he found it easier to stay in contention and after getting to the lead 300m out, would run on strongly to win by two and a half lengths. Changing hands for €17,800, he embarked on a British hurdling career which was certainly feasible on breeding. Samum has a solid record with juveniles in Britain and France while the dam has already produced two winning jumpers in Chandos Belle and Chez Harris; the former incidentally taking the Von Der Recke, French claiming route to the division, but failing to win for Paul Nicholls before eventually becoming quite useful. Collingham made his hurdling debut at Musselburgh in early November and was well supported in the ring getting backed into 8/11 from an opening 6/5. Initially prominent in a decently run race, he was restrained during the back stretch and began the home straight with a couple of lengths to find. He jumped two out with a share of the lead but as at Aix-les-Bains, he was not immediate in quickening. Nevertheless, the penny did drop after the last and he pulled ahead towards the line for a five length win. His jumping was a little untidy at times but few of his errors cost him any real momentum. The form was respectable without being much better than average, and a sterner examination was given back at the venue some four weeks ago. He was sent off a steady 3/1 behind the odds-on Skycutter who was soon in a very clear lead. Collingham led the pursuit and though there was still well over a dozen lengths between the two entering the straight, that gap had been reduced to a length by the furlong pole. However, the effort to close the gap, where he completed the penultimate furlong over a second quicker than the winner, proved telling with the pair finishing almost a distance clear of the remainder. Skycutter did not advertise the form in the Finale although he enjoyed nothing like the gift he received here. During his two outings, Collingham has already come close to his flat best and is due credit for his latest performance where his hurdling was also much tidier. This is a tight contest but he just about brings the best hurdles form which and it being achieved at this venue is a solid positive. Furthermore, Donald McCain, who is in good form at the moment, also has a strong record at Musselburgh with last year's winner Fiveandtwenty contributing to a 29.63% strike rate.
Inca Prince bg Ruth Jefferson bg f6-1-0 (84) 87 j4-1-2 (120) 112 119
Fast Company (Hawk Wing){5-g}(1.00) 3/1 Definate Spectacle 2nd Tipperary Hurdle (G2), Tipperary 2007
Starting career with Henry de Bromhead, Inca Prince made a winning debut at Dundalk last September and left the yard with a rating of 86 after finishing sixth in a listed race there in early March. However, his three flat outings for new trainer Cormac Farrell (hitherto winless in juvenile hurdles) resulted in him standing on himself in the stalls, refusing to race and finishing detached. Though he was running beyond a mile for the first time and was sent off a 125/1 outsider for his hurdles bow at Listowel in September, there was cause for optimism in the pedigree. Fast Company had a strong winner to runner rate of 34.78% with juveniles going into the race while the useful Definate Spectacle appears at 3/1 on the damline. Held up in the rear, Inca Prince took a keen hold during the early stages and was not especially fluent over the second or third. Nevertheless, he jumped and settled better going onto the second circuit and made steady headway before turning for home in the leading pack. He made mistakes over the last two which cost him momentum, but was able to win the battle for fifth on the run-in. Inca Prince completely outran his odds and though he is still some way off his earlier flat form, this was a definite step in the right direction. Sporting a first time hood, he continued his progression in a Gowran Park maiden a fortnight later. He was steady in the ring at 8/1, but unsteady in the race itself; immediately pulling himself to the front from a midfield position while doing his best to pull out Adam Short's arms. Though decent enough over the second and third, his hurdling was also wayward despite getting a lead along the back where he was especially close to the fourth and seventh. Nevertheless, he was still travelling well when jumping the penultimate flight with a narrow lead, and comfortably extended that gap to three lengths before meeting the last on completely the wrong stride. He was immediately headed on landing and would be relegated to third on the run-in. Apart from the fifth winning next time, the subsequent form has been disappointing. The same can not be said of Inca Prince's third start where he ran into two subsequent pattern winners at Down Royal at the end of October. Though still keen for much of the race, his rider did manage to restrain him in the rear and his jumping was much better as a result. Winner Fil Dor was in a class and race of his own, but Inca Prince did finish within a length of Sea Sessions who would land a listed fillies' race at Aintree next time. A move to Ruth Jefferson followed with his British debut coming in a fairly average contest at Catterick eighteen days ago. Starting the solid 85/40 favourite, he went straight into the lead and though still conspicuously keen, at least appeared to travel better up front. Inca Prince was in a clear lead going along the back at which point the field was well strung out. Nothing else looked like landing a blow prior and kept up to his work, he passed the post upwards of six lengths clear of the rest. The pace he set was a sensible one rather than one which would burn off average horses, but while the runner-up ran completely flat next time at Wetherby, the third did score in the same contest. The yard has had few juveniles or runners at Musselburgh to date, but it did have a winner at Kelso on Wednesday. Inca Prince's form is not far off Collingham's and he is entitled to respect, although he will still want to settle better and he probably won't get another uncontested lead here.
Individualiste rog Paul Nicholls f3-0-2 (32.0/70.4)
Cima de Triomphe (Slickly){4-m}(0.66) 2/2 Hollywood Park 1st 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2016
Ludovic Gadbin has supplied four winners from seven to the sphere, although all four of those who won did so with David Pipe. The latest to make his way to the West Country is Individualiste who joins Paul Nicholls after fetching €56,000 at the Arqana Summer Sale. Though the most expensive of Gadbin’s exported juveniles, he is among the lowest rated insofar as valeurs are concerned with this thrice raced maiden arriving at Ditcheat with an equivalent rating of 70.4. Looking very much in need of the experience when finishing fourth on his debut at Nantes in April, Individualiste went one better next time in a minor contest at Nort sur Erdre. Nevertheless, he was still beaten by nearly twelve lengths and would only finish a few lengths closer when filling the same position on his latest outing at Chateaubriant at the end of May. Racing over 2,650 metres, he was difficult to settle at times but while still conspicuously green under pressure, he at least saw out the distance well enough. The second and the fifth both won next time, although based on the ratings of those who surrounded Individualiste, the aforementioned valeur does not appear to underestimate him. Indeeed, the winner at Chateaubriant has since joined the British juvenile hurdling ranks where he has achieved the sum total of nothing in three starts. Cima de Triomphe has yet to have a juvenile hurdler in Britain or Ireland, but four of his twelve progeny have won minor races in France as three-year-olds. From the family of Mondialiste, Intello and, further back, Dubai Millennium, Individualiste has no notable jumps relatives although two of his cousins won minor contests over hurdles as youngsters. Any horse running for Paul Nicholls warrants attention, and three of the six juveniles to have ran at Musselburgh were winners. However, the sole debutant was a disappointment and while it is a long journey from Ditcheat to just south of Edinburgh, he will be in the company of three stablemates so the benefit of the endeavour will not rest on his shoulders. Individualiste, for all that he was patently unpolished when last seen, does not fit the profile of an obvious star in the making and while he can make an interesting recruit, there are others with more substantial profiles.
Meritorious bg John McConnell f6-1-2 (83) 86
Make Believe (Teofilo){3-c}(0.45) 2/1 Eminent Poet 1st 2m7?f Handicap Hurdle (135), Sandown 2018
Following a lacklustre Newmarket debut for John Gosden last July, Meritorious ran much better at the venue three months later where he finished second; just ahead of a green, future Grade 1 winner in Bolshoi Ballet. Disappointing again next time at Newcastle, he was gelded over the winter and though he showed nothing like his Newmarket form, returned with fair midfield finishes in ten furlong novice stakes at Leicester and Nottingham. Meritorious was last seen back at HQ when making his handicap debut in a soft ground, twelve furlong handicap off 80 where he started the 11/4 second favourite. An inability to settle had characterised his races to date and it was no different here as it took Frankie Dettori a few furlongs to get his mount into a rhythm. Tucked in behind the leaders, Meritorious was angled out to make his challenge half a mile out and was disputing the lead by the three pole. He hung markedly to his right under pressure at the distance but ran on well up the hill to win by a length and a tail. The subsequent form is sparse and not well advertised by those who have been out since, but it would still rank as the strongest available from the flat in this contest. Withdrawn from the July sale, he was offered at the Autumn Horses-in-Training where he was knocked down to Irish handler John McConnell. A trainer with a good winner to runner rate of 26.47%, his three stabs at this particular contest has resulted in Hannon winning in 2019, and Never Do Nothing landing the spoils a year later. This year's renewal does look stronger than either of those runnings and the yard is not in the strongest form at the moment with only one winner from twenty in the past fortnight, and forty-one runs passing since he last scored over jumps. His first time strike rate of 6.45% is below average and his juveniles generally improve from their debut outings. Notwithstanding, the pedigree of Meritorious is considerably more encouraging. Sire Make Believe has three winners from nine in the sphere to date and the dam is a half-sister to the useful Eminent Poet along with Orzare and Gabier who each won as juveniles. Meritorious is also a cousin of three further winning hurdlers, all of whom scored at either three or four years old. Any association with John Gosden would generally be a positive, but this does not ring true with his former inmates who go juvenile hurdling. The 15.31% winner to runner rate is fair at best at the 20.97% improvement rate is well below-average; although it can be noted that the promising Punchestown winner Pied Piper could be a possible trend breaker. Overall, there is plenty to like about the profile of Meritorious and it would be no surprise to see him emerge as a useful recruit. However, this is a decent contest for the venue and there are a couple of factors that temper enthusiasm.
Push For Sixty blg Iain Jardine f1-0-0 (-) 14 j1-0-0 (-) 36 39
Sixties Icon (Verglas){9-b}(0.71) 1/0 Push Me 1st 2m?f Handicap Hurdle (91), Perth 2014
Iain Jardine is doubly represented as he flies the saltire in the Hogmaneigh card's opener. The Carrutherstown handler has had a winning juvenile at Musselburgh, but this is alongside fourteen losers and his three runners in this contest have each failed to place. Push For Sixty never left the rear and beat just one home on his sole flat outing when twenty-eight lengths behind the winner in a Ripon maiden back in July. Three months later, he made his hurdling debut at this venue in Collingham's race. His dam won a handicap hurdler and Sixties Icon can do well in the sphere during the summer, but his 66/1 starting price was not a generous reflection of his prospects. Taking a keen hold in the rear, Push For Sixty did not jump with fluency and though just about in touch leaving the back, he would only get detached from thereon and was the tailed off last to complete.
Oot Ma Way bf Iain Jardine f12-2-2 (52) 57 j2-0-0 (-) 89 99
Power (Giant's Causeway){22-d}(1.00) 2/1 Monotype 1st 2m Rated Hurdle, Wexford 2018
Stablemate Oot Ma Way achieved little in two outings for Katie Scott last Autumn before switching to Iain Jardine during the winter. She did little at Newcastle on her return but in nine outings between June and November, she developed into a largely consistent sort at a modest level. A keen going sort, cheekpieces were applied in late August and a drop town to ten furlongs the following month saw her finally get off the mark in a Newcastle handicap off 46. Raised three pounds for this success, she followed up at Wolverhampton with a brave performance before finishing midfield off 53 on her last flat appearance. A switch to hurdling was next on the agenda and it is a pastime for which she is feasibly bread. Power has a 33.33% winner to runner rate in the sphere and an impressive 88.89% of his progeny have improved for the switch in codes. Uncle Monotype has shown respectable form over hurdles while good youngsters Gibralfaro and Brave Dancing appear on the damline at 3/2. Her introduction came in an introductory hurdle at Newcastle on Fighting Fifth day. Having a couple of stones to find on flat form, she started the race as 50/1 outsider. Dashing through the snow, her keen nature saw her pull herself into a clear lead which was greatly reduced when she was very slow at the third. Headed when jumping three out, her retreat was not a hasty one but she was tired by the time they reached the last and she faded to finish eleven lengths behind the winner. It was a satisfactory debut outing and apart from her being slow at the third and tired at the last, she jumped respectably overall. Oot Ma Way was out a week later iat Musselburgh where she was again unfancied at 40/1. While keen early, she did settle on reaching the back and apart from getting three out completely wrong, put in another sound hurdling exhibition. However, she never had pretentions of reaching the leader or following Colllingham and was beaten much further than she had been at Newcastle. With a fair rating, there is a future over hurdles for Oot Ma Way, although it will probably begin sometime after New Year's Day.
Irish Hill possibly a fortunate winner, although seeing as Graystoke was ended his round with a couple of tired leaps having jumped well beforehand, I am not convinced that he would not have tied up on the run-in. Five from five is pretty good for December so let's see if the momentum is maintained going into 2022...
MUSSELBURGH - 1st JANUARY - PREVIEW
2021 kicks off with a Grey Bomber (named after the ill-fated juvenile of Denys Smith) qualifier at the very Musselburgh where the ?30,000 final is due to be hosted in March. Typically over half a stone stronger than the standard race at the venue, it also serves as a step towards the Scottish Triumph Trial with five horses reaching the frame in both races since 2014 and last season's winner, Fiveandtwenty, winning in both before finishing third in the Anniversary at Aintree. Furthermore, Project Bluebook and Nietzsche, first and third in 2017, would go on to finish fourth and third respectively in that season's Fred Winter. Next year's renewal looks up to scratch with two fairly useful winning hurdlers taking on a pair of intriguing recruits, with a couple of Iain Jardine's representing the Scottish contingent. A sharp and almost flat left-handed track, Musselburgh's average winning DIs of 1.26 median, 1.41 mean are on the higher side of standard and its clear round rate of 96.27% is close to average. Odds-on favourites have a decent strike rate of 70.97%, the median winning SP of 2/1`is the fifth lowest in Britain. Newcomers have a somewhat lower chance against experienced rivals than at other venues, but their clear round rate 96.88% is actually higher than the average; one of a handful of racecourses where this is the case. All of this combines to indicate that Musselburgh is one of the most straightforward racecourses around. In this particular contest, of which there have been eight runnings, newcomers have a strike rate of 20% with an impact value 1.38 while previous winners have similar figures of 21.43% and 1.47 respectively. Previous course experience is not a particularly telling factor although winning form at Musselburgh is a positive with with such horses having a 28.26% strike rate. Furthermore, five previous course winners have taken in this contest with all of them reaching the frame and two of them passing the post in front. Despite the small field, most of these horses have either led or raced prominently so a strong pace looks likely. The going is currently described as good to soft, soft in places, with breezes and light rain anticipated in the interim.
Collingham bg Donald McCain f13-3-4 (33,0-72.6) 82 j2-1-1 (123) 118 121
Samum (Mull of Kintyre){6-d}(0.78) 0.5 Chez Hans 1st 2m2?f Handicap Hurdle (131), Newton Abbot 2021
/https://api.equidia.fr/api/public/media/original/20230414-r6c7p19-png?updated_at=2023-04-13T09:33:29+02:00)
Juvenile hurdlers bought out of French flat claimers have solid winner to runner rate of 22.81% which increases to 32% when the horse won its claimer. Adagio and Noble Request are two notable examples, although few will develop into much above average. Nevertheless, Donald McCain's first juvenile to come out of a French claimer, Collingham, has made a promising start to his hurdling career. Initially with Christian von der Recke, Collingham first racecourse appearance came in a Compiegne claimer last October where he won by three lengths, and was claimed afterwards for €30,009 to join Fabrice Vermeulen. Runner-up on his remaining three outings at two, he began 2021 with a valeur of 39 (85.8 BHA) but his poor runs outnumbered his good and that mark would drop six kilos in the run-up to July. That month saw him dropped into a modest Aix-les-Bains claimer over 2500m on soft ground. Held up in midfield, he was outpaced on the turn for home but though he made a meal of going through the gears, he was able to hit the front 100m out and regain the winning thread by a length. His final start in France came in a slightly better claimer at Clairefontaine in similar conditions. Here, he found it easier to stay in contention and after getting to the lead 300m out, would run on strongly to win by two and a half lengths. Changing hands for €17,800, he embarked on a British hurdling career which was certainly feasible on breeding. Samum has a solid record with juveniles in Britain and France while the dam has already produced two winning jumpers in Chandos Belle and Chez Harris; the former incidentally taking the Von Der Recke, French claiming route to the division, but failing to win for Paul Nicholls before eventually becoming quite useful. Collingham made his hurdling debut at Musselburgh in early November and was well supported in the ring getting backed into 8/11 from an opening 6/5. Initially prominent in a decently run race, he was restrained during the back stretch and began the home straight with a couple of lengths to find. He jumped two out with a share of the lead but as at Aix-les-Bains, he was not immediate in quickening. Nevertheless, the penny did drop after the last and he pulled ahead towards the line for a five length win. His jumping was a little untidy at times but few of his errors cost him any real momentum. The form was respectable without being much better than average, and a sterner examination was given back at the venue some four weeks ago. He was sent off a steady 3/1 behind the odds-on Skycutter who was soon in a very clear lead. Collingham led the pursuit and though there was still well over a dozen lengths between the two entering the straight, that gap had been reduced to a length by the furlong pole. However, the effort to close the gap, where he completed the penultimate furlong over a second quicker than the winner, proved telling with the pair finishing almost a distance clear of the remainder. Skycutter did not advertise the form in the Finale although he enjoyed nothing like the gift he received here. During his two outings, Collingham has already come close to his flat best and is due credit for his latest performance where his hurdling was also much tidier. This is a tight contest but he just about brings the best hurdles form which and it being achieved at this venue is a solid positive. Furthermore, Donald McCain, who is in good form at the moment, also has a strong record at Musselburgh with last year's winner Fiveandtwenty contributing to a 29.63% strike rate.
Inca Prince bg Ruth Jefferson bg f6-1-0 (84) 87 j4-1-2 (120) 112 119
Fast Company (Hawk Wing){5-g}(1.00) 3/1 Definate Spectacle 2nd Tipperary Hurdle (G2), Tipperary 2007
Starting career with Henry de Bromhead, Inca Prince made a winning debut at Dundalk last September and left the yard with a rating of 86 after finishing sixth in a listed race there in early March. However, his three flat outings for new trainer Cormac Farrell (hitherto winless in juvenile hurdles) resulted in him standing on himself in the stalls, refusing to race and finishing detached. Though he was running beyond a mile for the first time and was sent off a 125/1 outsider for his hurdles bow at Listowel in September, there was cause for optimism in the pedigree. Fast Company had a strong winner to runner rate of 34.78% with juveniles going into the race while the useful Definate Spectacle appears at 3/1 on the damline. Held up in the rear, Inca Prince took a keen hold during the early stages and was not especially fluent over the second or third. Nevertheless, he jumped and settled better going onto the second circuit and made steady headway before turning for home in the leading pack. He made mistakes over the last two which cost him momentum, but was able to win the battle for fifth on the run-in. Inca Prince completely outran his odds and though he is still some way off his earlier flat form, this was a definite step in the right direction. Sporting a first time hood, he continued his progression in a Gowran Park maiden a fortnight later. He was steady in the ring at 8/1, but unsteady in the race itself; immediately pulling himself to the front from a midfield position while doing his best to pull out Adam Short's arms. Though decent enough over the second and third, his hurdling was also wayward despite getting a lead along the back where he was especially close to the fourth and seventh. Nevertheless, he was still travelling well when jumping the penultimate flight with a narrow lead, and comfortably extended that gap to three lengths before meeting the last on completely the wrong stride. He was immediately headed on landing and would be relegated to third on the run-in. Apart from the fifth winning next time, the subsequent form has been disappointing. The same can not be said of Inca Prince's third start where he ran into two subsequent pattern winners at Down Royal at the end of October. Though still keen for much of the race, his rider did manage to restrain him in the rear and his jumping was much better as a result. Winner Fil Dor was in a class and race of his own, but Inca Prince did finish within a length of Sea Sessions who would land a listed fillies' race at Aintree next time. A move to Ruth Jefferson followed with his British debut coming in a fairly average contest at Catterick eighteen days ago. Starting the solid 85/40 favourite, he went straight into the lead and though still conspicuously keen, at least appeared to travel better up front. Inca Prince was in a clear lead going along the back at which point the field was well strung out. Nothing else looked like landing a blow prior and kept up to his work, he passed the post upwards of six lengths clear of the rest. The pace he set was a sensible one rather than one which would burn off average horses, but while the runner-up ran completely flat next time at Wetherby, the third did score in the same contest. The yard has had few juveniles or runners at Musselburgh to date, but it did have a winner at Kelso on Wednesday. Inca Prince's form is not far off Collingham's and he is entitled to respect, although he will still want to settle better and he probably won't get another uncontested lead here.
Individualiste rog Paul Nicholls f3-0-2 (32.0/70.4)
Cima de Triomphe (Slickly){4-m}(0.66) 2/2 Hollywood Park 1st 3yo Claiming Hurdle, Auteuil 2016
/https://api.equidia.fr/api/public/media/original/20210529-r2c5p11-png?updated_at=2021-05-27T18:49:40+02:00)
Ludovic Gadbin has supplied four winners from seven to the sphere, although all four of those who won did so with David Pipe. The latest to make his way to the West Country is Individualiste who joins Paul Nicholls after fetching €56,000 at the Arqana Summer Sale. Though the most expensive of Gadbin’s exported juveniles, he is among the lowest rated insofar as valeurs are concerned with this thrice raced maiden arriving at Ditcheat with an equivalent rating of 70.4. Looking very much in need of the experience when finishing fourth on his debut at Nantes in April, Individualiste went one better next time in a minor contest at Nort sur Erdre. Nevertheless, he was still beaten by nearly twelve lengths and would only finish a few lengths closer when filling the same position on his latest outing at Chateaubriant at the end of May. Racing over 2,650 metres, he was difficult to settle at times but while still conspicuously green under pressure, he at least saw out the distance well enough. The second and the fifth both won next time, although based on the ratings of those who surrounded Individualiste, the aforementioned valeur does not appear to underestimate him. Indeeed, the winner at Chateaubriant has since joined the British juvenile hurdling ranks where he has achieved the sum total of nothing in three starts. Cima de Triomphe has yet to have a juvenile hurdler in Britain or Ireland, but four of his twelve progeny have won minor races in France as three-year-olds. From the family of Mondialiste, Intello and, further back, Dubai Millennium, Individualiste has no notable jumps relatives although two of his cousins won minor contests over hurdles as youngsters. Any horse running for Paul Nicholls warrants attention, and three of the six juveniles to have ran at Musselburgh were winners. However, the sole debutant was a disappointment and while it is a long journey from Ditcheat to just south of Edinburgh, he will be in the company of three stablemates so the benefit of the endeavour will not rest on his shoulders. Individualiste, for all that he was patently unpolished when last seen, does not fit the profile of an obvious star in the making and while he can make an interesting recruit, there are others with more substantial profiles.
Meritorious bg John McConnell f6-1-2 (83) 86
Make Believe (Teofilo){3-c}(0.45) 2/1 Eminent Poet 1st 2m7?f Handicap Hurdle (135), Sandown 2018
Following a lacklustre Newmarket debut for John Gosden last July, Meritorious ran much better at the venue three months later where he finished second; just ahead of a green, future Grade 1 winner in Bolshoi Ballet. Disappointing again next time at Newcastle, he was gelded over the winter and though he showed nothing like his Newmarket form, returned with fair midfield finishes in ten furlong novice stakes at Leicester and Nottingham. Meritorious was last seen back at HQ when making his handicap debut in a soft ground, twelve furlong handicap off 80 where he started the 11/4 second favourite. An inability to settle had characterised his races to date and it was no different here as it took Frankie Dettori a few furlongs to get his mount into a rhythm. Tucked in behind the leaders, Meritorious was angled out to make his challenge half a mile out and was disputing the lead by the three pole. He hung markedly to his right under pressure at the distance but ran on well up the hill to win by a length and a tail. The subsequent form is sparse and not well advertised by those who have been out since, but it would still rank as the strongest available from the flat in this contest. Withdrawn from the July sale, he was offered at the Autumn Horses-in-Training where he was knocked down to Irish handler John McConnell. A trainer with a good winner to runner rate of 26.47%, his three stabs at this particular contest has resulted in Hannon winning in 2019, and Never Do Nothing landing the spoils a year later. This year's renewal does look stronger than either of those runnings and the yard is not in the strongest form at the moment with only one winner from twenty in the past fortnight, and forty-one runs passing since he last scored over jumps. His first time strike rate of 6.45% is below average and his juveniles generally improve from their debut outings. Notwithstanding, the pedigree of Meritorious is considerably more encouraging. Sire Make Believe has three winners from nine in the sphere to date and the dam is a half-sister to the useful Eminent Poet along with Orzare and Gabier who each won as juveniles. Meritorious is also a cousin of three further winning hurdlers, all of whom scored at either three or four years old. Any association with John Gosden would generally be a positive, but this does not ring true with his former inmates who go juvenile hurdling. The 15.31% winner to runner rate is fair at best at the 20.97% improvement rate is well below-average; although it can be noted that the promising Punchestown winner Pied Piper could be a possible trend breaker. Overall, there is plenty to like about the profile of Meritorious and it would be no surprise to see him emerge as a useful recruit. However, this is a decent contest for the venue and there are a couple of factors that temper enthusiasm.
Push For Sixty blg Iain Jardine f1-0-0 (-) 14 j1-0-0 (-) 36 39
Sixties Icon (Verglas){9-b}(0.71) 1/0 Push Me 1st 2m?f Handicap Hurdle (91), Perth 2014
Iain Jardine is doubly represented as he flies the saltire in the Hogmaneigh card's opener. The Carrutherstown handler has had a winning juvenile at Musselburgh, but this is alongside fourteen losers and his three runners in this contest have each failed to place. Push For Sixty never left the rear and beat just one home on his sole flat outing when twenty-eight lengths behind the winner in a Ripon maiden back in July. Three months later, he made his hurdling debut at this venue in Collingham's race. His dam won a handicap hurdler and Sixties Icon can do well in the sphere during the summer, but his 66/1 starting price was not a generous reflection of his prospects. Taking a keen hold in the rear, Push For Sixty did not jump with fluency and though just about in touch leaving the back, he would only get detached from thereon and was the tailed off last to complete.
Oot Ma Way bf Iain Jardine f12-2-2 (52) 57 j2-0-0 (-) 89 99
Power (Giant's Causeway){22-d}(1.00) 2/1 Monotype 1st 2m Rated Hurdle, Wexford 2018
Stablemate Oot Ma Way achieved little in two outings for Katie Scott last Autumn before switching to Iain Jardine during the winter. She did little at Newcastle on her return but in nine outings between June and November, she developed into a largely consistent sort at a modest level. A keen going sort, cheekpieces were applied in late August and a drop town to ten furlongs the following month saw her finally get off the mark in a Newcastle handicap off 46. Raised three pounds for this success, she followed up at Wolverhampton with a brave performance before finishing midfield off 53 on her last flat appearance. A switch to hurdling was next on the agenda and it is a pastime for which she is feasibly bread. Power has a 33.33% winner to runner rate in the sphere and an impressive 88.89% of his progeny have improved for the switch in codes. Uncle Monotype has shown respectable form over hurdles while good youngsters Gibralfaro and Brave Dancing appear on the damline at 3/2. Her introduction came in an introductory hurdle at Newcastle on Fighting Fifth day. Having a couple of stones to find on flat form, she started the race as 50/1 outsider. Dashing through the snow, her keen nature saw her pull herself into a clear lead which was greatly reduced when she was very slow at the third. Headed when jumping three out, her retreat was not a hasty one but she was tired by the time they reached the last and she faded to finish eleven lengths behind the winner. It was a satisfactory debut outing and apart from her being slow at the third and tired at the last, she jumped respectably overall. Oot Ma Way was out a week later iat Musselburgh where she was again unfancied at 40/1. While keen early, she did settle on reaching the back and apart from getting three out completely wrong, put in another sound hurdling exhibition. However, she never had pretentions of reaching the leader or following Colllingham and was beaten much further than she had been at Newcastle. With a fair rating, there is a future over hurdles for Oot Ma Way, although it will probably begin sometime after New Year's Day.
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