Punchestown 2021

[charlie]

Im siding with JOB in the two big handicaps. Sky go 7 places in the 3.40 and 4.50.

Scholastic in the 3.40 - may have disappointed at Cheltenham LTO but she's ahead of these off a mark of 123 IMO. She has been running in much more competitive races than this, has C&D winning form and with 7 places @ 9/1 I cannot see her out of the frame. Cheltenham may not have suited her and back here I think she has a massive chance. Took 12 on the exchange.

Midnight Run in the 4.50 is a really interesting one that feels like a plot to me. Was 2nd to Envoi Allen on the flat, then beat Column Of Fire and Easywork, which is pretty good going. Beat Colreevy in his maiden hurdle 10L on soft ground, and she was backed that day like defeat was out of the question. That was a good enough performance to book his place in the Royal Bond and Lawlors at Naas where he disappointed, and they subsequently went chasing. Ran a fine 6th on debut after 314 days off, but then ran Captain Guinness to 4L. That was a serious performance IMO and CG is a 150's animal, and the 3rd that day finishing 30L back has subsequently won since, as have a number of others who were beaten out of sight. He comes back to hurdles and JOB has booked arguably the best claimer in Ireland in Jordon Gainford to take 7lbs off his back. I could be way off, but this stinks of a plot to me. 14/1 EW 7 places seems fair and also took 19 on the Exchange. Doubled EW with Scholastic too.

Blue Lord v Echoes In Rain is a no bet race. I am in camp Blue Lord.

CPS v Allaho is a watching race. I am in camp CPS.

Envoi Allen v Monkfish is a watching race. I am in camp Envoi.

I want to see Envoi Allen demolish Monkfish.

In fact, I'll do a treble on the above 3. Watching lasted long

[Atlantic Viking]

Midnight Run in the 4.50 is a really interesting one that feels like a plot to me. Was 2nd to Envoi Allen on the flat, then beat Column Of Fire and Easywork, which is pretty good going. Beat Colreevy in his maiden hurdle 10L on soft ground, and she was backed that day like defeat was out of the question. That was a good enough performance to book his place in the Royal Bond and Lawlors at Naas where he disappointed, and they subsequently went chasing. Ran a fine 6th on debut after 314 days off, but then ran Captain Guinness to 4L. That was a serious performance IMO and CG is a 150's animal, and the 3rd that day finishing 30L back has subsequently won since, as have a number of others who were beaten out of sight. He comes back to hurdles and JOB has booked arguably the best claimer in Ireland in Jordon Gainford to take 7lbs off his back. I could be way off, but this stinks of a plot to me. 14/1 EW 7 places seems fair and also took 19 on the Exchange. Doubled EW with Scholastic too.

Spent a good bit of time last night on this one so i'm glad to see someone else mention it! Lovely win against Colreevy in the bank when giving weight, plus that very nice bumper form. The runs in the Royal Bond and Lawlors just look a simple case of being outclassed. He made a big mistake at the 2nd last in the former, but he was already weakening at a rate of knots by that point. I've taken 20s boosted with Paddy who go 6 places (7th place incoming... ). He just looks too big a price effectively off of 133 in what is basically a sizeable drop in class over hurdles.

I quite fancy Master McShee to run a big race too.

[Stormez]

I’ve gone for Great Bear & Jazzaway in the handicap hurdles.

Nuba Negra winning wouldn’t surprise me, though I haven’t backed him. Think this track could suit.

I’m hoping Envoi Allen wins, I’m still buying the ‘Second coming’ hype!

[Eggs]

...Cerebus for me, 33-1 PP paying 6 places.

[robith]

Took a look at the cards and I don't have a clue. Envoi's price is tempting me, but that's it really

Whacked a free bet on some of the jollies for the week though - CPS/Envoi/Ser Gerhard/Honeysuckle/Bolly/Concertista 61/1

I'm sure at least two of them get turned over but a bit of craic

[archie]

A little surprised to see Echoes In Rain fav over Blue Lord tomorrow in view of PT rejecting the ride on the Mare Who he is 3/3 on.

My take on it would be that they're trying to get the pro's title for Paul and the amateur's for Patrick so Patrick will get a few bonus rides.

[charlie]

Spent a good bit of time last night on this one so i'm glad to see someone else mention it! Lovely win against Colreevy in the bank when giving weight, plus that very nice bumper form. The runs in the Royal Bond and Lawlors just look a simple case of being outclassed. He made a big mistake at the 2nd last in the former, but he was already weakening at a rate of knots by that point. I've taken 20s boosted with Paddy who go 6 places (7th place incoming... ). He just looks too big a price effectively off of 133 in what is basically a sizeable drop in class over hurdles.

I quite fancy Master McShee to run a big race too.

Always nice to know someone else is thinking the same way! Yeh the Colreevy form is super. She was smashed into 8/13 that day and he gave her a 10L beating under her ideal conditions whilst giving away 7lbs. Cant see many in this line up being good enough to do that and as you say, I think his current mark with the claim underestimates his ability

[archie]

Spent a good bit of time last night on this one so i'm glad to see someone else mention it! Lovely win against Colreevy in the bank when giving weight, plus that very nice bumper form. The runs in the Royal Bond and Lawlors just look a simple case of being outclassed. He made a big mistake at the 2nd last in the former, but he was already weakening at a rate of knots by that point. I've taken 20s boosted with Paddy who go 6 places (7th place incoming... ). He just looks too big a price effectively off of 133 in what is basically a sizeable drop in class over hurdles.

I was with you until the 'effectively running off 133' business. I've been here before but that is simply not true unless you think that Gainford is already as good a jockey as Blackmore and Kennedy.

If you're looking at collateral form, I'd suggest that Jazzaway might be on a handy mark based on running against Mrs Milner. I wouldn't, though, be claiming that she's effectively off 123.

[Eggs]

.....Sky offer;

Monkfish/Allaho win Punchestown & GC/CC @ 66-1

[Atlantic Viking]

I was with you until the 'effectively running off 133' business. I've been here before but that is simply not true unless you think that Gainford is already as good a jockey as Blackmore and Kennedy.

Well of course, but it works out a bare 133 on paper and I don't see Gainford as a negative. Plenty see him as a positive. I don't think he's as good as those 2 but probably as good or better than a good few with no claim. A real terms '+ or -' lbs list on jockeys would certainly be a thread for lively (and neverending) debate!

[mayo]

Finding skybet doesnt like me combining their offer in multiples . Hateful feeling when you know you would have collected with them but wont with betfair. First world problem.

Sportsbook

Banjo 33/1
Jazzaway 10/1 /Call me Lyreen 20/1
First Flow 12/1
All for Rachael 25/1

?2ew to 242k


Case made for a few of them by Brendan Duke.

https://www.rte.ie/sport/racing/2021/0426/1212227-punchestown-festival-day-1-preview-and-tips/

[The King Pimm]

Betfair SB is offering 3 places in the 5.25 and you can get Cilaos Emery at 35/1 e/w with the boost.

[SeanRock]

Midnight Run my only bet today e/w & on the nose at 18/1

He looks well treated on his hurdles mark with JG claiming a valuable 7lb, the good ground would be a slight concern, I’d have preferred soft going!

[Lobos]

Betfair SB is offering 3 places in the 5.25 and you can get Cilaos Emery at 35/1 e/w with the boost.

Very clever of them in my view. Picking the 3rd looks mighty difficult.

[That Horse]

Anyone notice the price contraction for Merlin Giant in the 5:55? 10/1 into 9/2 showing on bet365, it's 7/2 on William hill.

Emmet Mullins and a 7lb claimer.