2021 Scottish Grand National

[Eggs]

Moved to next Sunday because of the Royal funeral, I thought it might be worth it’s own thread for a chat.

With doubts about so many turning up, I’m taking a big leap of faith Lord Napier @ 56-1 (with boost) makes the cut. Bowen targets Aintree & when this one was withdrawn from the final declarations it meant he didn’t have a single runner at the meeting. Bowen is shrewd & recently gave LN a spin over hurdles so perhaps this has been the plan.

I remember Al Co winning this for Bowen @ 40-1, hoping Lord Napier turns up.

[Quevega]

I’ve backed three this morning and I’m not certain on running plans.
vintage clouds 16-1 sky
150 rated means he will need to be on as good form as at Cheltenham and be error free to be able to see it out, but he’s one of my favourites and if he runs he’s likely to be shorter priced.

mister fog patches 50-1 pp bfsb
his form from the last run looks strong and to be honest I simply went through the likely Irish runners.
needs 25 not to run but I went through them and he may just squeeze in. His rating would normally mean he’d miss out so I may lose on it. Encouraged that he’s been backed this afternoon though.

hollow ginge 40-1
i read on here that he’s expected to run and run well so I thought he may also prove popular and bits of his form give him a chance on a possibly decent mark.

be happy if a couple get declared then I’ll have another look.

[Hurricane fly]

I’ve gone for Sams adventure so far.

For me, 5 of the top 6 in the betting won’t turn up so definitely some value that will put weight the additional place offers at this point

[Outlaw]

Galvin doesn't go it's just been reported. Plenty be eyeing him up for next years GN now you'd think.

[Eggs]

Galvin doesn't go it's just been reported. Plenty be eyeing him up for next years GN now you'd think.

....33-1 is the best price I’ve seen.

[Eggs]

....looks like only 31 remain after the latest declaration stage:

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/3/ayr/2021-04-18/779587/

[Faugheen_Machine]

Moved to next Sunday because of the Royal funeral, I thought it might be worth it’s own thread for a chat.

With doubts about so many turning up, I’m taking a big leap of faith Lord Napier @ 56-1 (with boost) makes the cut. Bowen targets Aintree & when this one was withdrawn from the final declarations it meant he didn’t have a single runner at the meeting. Bowen is shrewd & recently gave LN a spin over hurdles so perhaps this has been the plan.

I remember Al Co winning this for Bowen @ 40-1, hoping Lord Napier turns up.

I backed him for the handicap chase at Aintree last week and have doubled down for the Scottish National. I'd just like a run for my money at this point

[knockando]

Appreciate this thread looks to be purely for the Scottish National, but thought to just throw in a shout for a horse running earlier on the card.

Marown is entered in the 1.50 CPMS Novice Chase and is currently 7s - 4 places which I think is superb value.

I was on a Zoom preview night with my syndicate where Mark Howard gave a favourable mention to this horse, and Tfou as another to keep an eye out for.

Following his win at Wetherby end of March (went off 11/8) - RP ran this article saying that a potential Grand National contender and that Hemmings and Richards clearly like him a lot. Note that he has another entry on the card in the 3pm but Brian Hughes is jocked up in the 1.50. He got raised 3lbs for the Wetherby win, which in reality looks to be on the generous side of the handicapper given that Messire Des Obeaux was pulled up as Marown won by half the track.

https://www.racingpost.com/news/hemmings-could-have-a-future-grand-national-contender-with-marown/480597

Richards with chasers is 12 / 19 (4 places as this race is) / 44 at Ayr in last 5 seasons, for a 27% win and 70% win / place rate for a ?17 LSP.
Brian Hughes is 30 / 50 (4 places) / 106 for a 28% win and 75% win / place rate for ?34 LSP over same period.
As a combo with chasers, they are operating at 24% win rate.

Marown's course form at Ayr is 1 1 3 1 - 7/1 with four places looks terrific to me and with a number of horses double entered at this stage and not jocked up - the race will invariably cut up a bit.

[Garrison Savannah]

Is he definitely not running in the intermediate trip novices Chase the same day?

[knockando]

Is he definitely not running in the intermediate trip novices Chase the same day?

Not 100% confirmed but a few confidence boosters - firstly Hughes jocked up in CMPS and not the intermediate trip race, and also read somewhere that Richards been targeting him at this particular race, I’m happy to take the chance he’ll show up in this one

[charlie]

Mighty Thunder @ 14/1 stands out as a very good EW bet to me

[charlie]

Mighty Thunder @ 14/1 stands out as a very good EW bet to me

He ticks so many boxes. Ground no issue, stays every inch of the trip, 11-1 is a nice weight, Tom Scudamore up top on a redemption mission after last week - I just cant see him out the frame barring a clean round of jumping

[Lobos]

The Irish are that far Infront of the English that you might as well back all their horses in the race blind.

[Odin]

I&#8217

mister fog patches 50-1 pp bfsb
his form from the last run looks strong and to be honest I simply went through the likely Irish runners.
needs 25 not to run but I went through them and he may just squeeze in. His rating would normally mean he’d miss out so I may lose on it. Encouraged that he’s been backed this afternoon though.

.

Win or lose, it's difficult not to applaud this one.. I was happy when I snaffled 14s after he was declared! For what it's worth, I've no idea about his form, I was just thinking along the same lines as Lobos and backed Pilbara and Fogpatches blind as the only Irish horses in both races.

[jack1092]

Win or lose, it's difficult not to applaud this one.. I was happy when I snaffled 14s after he was declared! For what it's worth, I've no idea about his form, I was just thinking along the same lines as Lobos and backed Pilbara and Fogpatches blind as the only Irish horses in both races.

Been watching him for most of the year, didn't think he'd get in here but did get a nice price was it looked more likely *not Qs price lol.

Very much fancy him as long as he stays the trip. Been clearly laid out for a handicap back up to a staying trip on good ground.