Newbury November Meeting Antepost discussion

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

Just to put the task into context the only horse in history who was able to come back and win this race having been placed in it the previous year was Arkle.

The only recent one to win and carry 11-12 was Denman.

If he has no chance in the gold cup then he has no chance in the Ladbrokes.

You cannot have both opinions.

Arkle and Denman were exceptional gold cup winners. A level above the standard gold cup winner level.

[Big Bucks]

I'm not sure who all has said what on here, but I personally havent considered him for the Gold Cup (but havent ruled him out either) but my opinion is at the minute which i think concurs with what ive read in this thread, that 20/1 is a big price for him in this race. My sort of bet ew, But is he definately going to race this weekend?

Fair play to you with your confidence in him, i just dont see it yet, saying that i havent had a good record in Gold Cup the last few years. You do seem more keen and confident than i was with Don Cossack, who I really liked tge year he won! But incidentally was my last winner in the GC!

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

One would assume he will definitely race this weekend. He was taken out of the betfair chase to allow Lostintranslation to win it.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

I would be talking about the people who call Elegant Escape a tugboat who is a high class handicapper but not good enough for grade 1s, yet they seem to think he is actually a good thing for this task.

They dont know what they are saying or realise that to pass this test from this mark carrying this weight you need to be one of the greats.

If he isnt an amazing bet for the gold cup at 50/1 then he certainly isnt well priced at 20/1 to win here.

He is only a good price at 20/1 to win the Ladbrokes if he is the 2020 gold cup winner. No ifs no buts and no inbetween.

[archie]

You're flipping the argument, ET.

Most are saying that, if Elegant Escape is good enough to win a Gold Cup, he should p*ss up in the Ladbrokes off 160. My view is that he's likely better than 160 but he's not yet shown that he's up to winning a Gold Cup. At the moment he's an outsider for March but he's got plenty of time to prove that he's a legitimate contender.

I'm not particularly interested in the prices because I won't be having a bet in either race.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

This race is dominated by 2nd season chasers who are on a decent handicap mark from the novice season and have developed and are far better than they have shown so far and are well handicapped.

If Elegant Escape can give weight to all these up and coming well handicapped horses then he is a grade 1 winner in waiting and would become one of the favourites for the gold cup.

Im not flipping any arguement. I believe he is the gild cup winner and as such I believe he will win this race.

The flippers are in fact the people who say he has no chance in a gold cup but believe he can emulate Denman, Arkle and Bobs Worth and win this race.
Native River won this by 1/2 length from a 5lb lower mark carrying 11lb less than EE before going on to win the gold cup.

The task in hand is huge and that 20/1 can only be value if you believe he can go on to win thr gold cup.

[Faugheen_Machine]

This race is dominated by 2nd season chasers who are on a decent handicap mark from the novice season and have developed and are far better than they have shown so far and are well handicapped.

If Elegant Escape can give weight to all these up and coming well handicapped horses then he is a grade 1 winner in waiting and would become one of the favourites for the gold cup.

Im not flipping any arguement. I believe he is the gild cup winner and as such I believe he will win this race.

The flippers are in fact the people who say he has no chance in a gold cup but believe he can emulate Denman, Arkle and Bobs Worth and win this race.
Native River won this by 1/2 length from a 5lb lower mark carrying 11lb less than EE before going on to win the gold cup.

The task in hand is huge and that 20/1 can only be value if you believe he can go on to win thr gold cup.

This year's renewal looks to be lacking decent 2nd season chasers though. TOTG, Santini, LIT would have all been bets in this for me. It looks a very average renewal and one of the worst I can't remember.

That's the reason I give EE a chance off 160. The track suits EE more than Cheltenham imo.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

Every running of the Ladbrokes Trophy will appear weak looking on paper. Its only as the season goes on that you can determine how strong the race was. Most runners true marks are hidden at present and they have been lined up for the race.

RSA winners and JLT winners dont tend to come here as a rule. This field is strong and the task is huge facing EE.

EE is a staying machine, Cheltenham is much better suited to EE than Newbury.

[luisgarciaisgod]

If EE was good enough to win a Gold Cup, he wouldn't have finished behind Ballyoptic if the Charlie Hall. The same horse who got beaten by 45l just gone in the Betfair Chase

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

We all know EE is a big horse, Tizzard confirmed he was heavy and needed the race. He was giving a race fit and in the form of his life Ballyoptic 4lb.
Ballyoptic recorded an rpr of 134 in the haydock race compared to 167 in the charlie hall.

Ballyoptic clearly ran well below the level of form in the haydock race. Him having a bad day at Haydock doesnt weaken the charlie hall form in anyway shape or form, he simply ran a shocker.

You either understand that or you dont.

The level of drop was too big. Perhaps Ballyoptic hated the ground at haydock and perhaps having been trained to peak early season and following 2 huge performances he ran flat.

[ELEGANTLY TASTED]

Had Ballyoptic ran to a similar level of form at Haydock as he did at Wetherby and still got beaten as far as he did then you could say that the form isnt good enough (though even then you would need to acknowledge that EE will improve for the race and wasnt fully fit at Wetherby )The fact that Ballyoptic ran so much below makes his haydock formlime completely irrelevant.

[samcow]

west approach is entered

[Big Bucks]

west approach is entered

Any link to the entries?

[Middle_Of_March]

Took 14s each way Elegant Escape (4 places). Must go close here surely. I’ll cover OK Corral on the day each way (5/6 places)

[Kevloaf]

On Ok Corral at 20-1.
Pretty certain Henderson entered him on my suggestion on here.
But. although I don't generally pay any attention to the working of horses at racecourses.
He looked knackered the other day, just jogging.
Also had small bet on Champagne Classic at 40-1 - Gordon has since said he won't run here, but does seem steady on exchange,

Also think Kim Bailey missed a trick by not running Vindication off his season starting mark.
And the other I liked for this is running today (Discorama) - so cashed that out.
Le Breuil's unlikely to run now as Pauling's busy feeding his horses banana's due to the potassium shortages.
The one I may back if declared is West Approach as this race may suit his style.

Paul Kealy
@PaulKealyRP

Been looking at Ladbrokes Trophy - surely OK Corral doubles in price at least? Last horse I would dream of backing


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So we know Quevega isn't secretly Paul Kealy....