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i wonder if cyrname will drift out on the day/night before
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Last edited by samcow; 23 November 2019, 04:24 PM. -
I think he will drift and Altior will end up 1/2 or shorter and win. Cyrname doesn’t win first time out, and he has the best horse he has ever faced, to beat this time he debuts."Journeys to Glory, breathing in his head". -
Altior vs Cyrname.
When Cyrname won his last race, he won by 17 lengths and was not really asked much.
It's hard to crab the rating as the horses in behind (all 5 of them) were all rated in the 160's, and had similar lines of form against each other, here and there. It's pretty much impossible to suggest they all ran below par. It's far more reasonable to say that they ran to their ratings actually.
From memory, none had any real jumping excuses on the day either (could be wrong on this)
Altior - since his First Champion chase win, where he faced four horses rated in the 160's (including Douvan who fell) - He has been rated in the 170's ever since.
In the 6 races he has contested since that race, he has only faced 5 horses rated above 160. And only ever ran in one race where he faced 2 at the same time (politologue and Min in this years champion), a race in which Sceaux Royal earned his highest rating and Altior beat him next time up at Sandown.
The horses he has beat in the 160's are. Last 6 races in reverse order.
Sceaux Royal
Politologue & Min
Fox Norton
0
Un de Sceaux
0
Basically he's been beating a bunch of inferiors, who've been getting closer to him. And he never beat Politologue and Fox Norton as far as cyrname did that day.
He's rubbish
Getting more and more convinced that Cyrname will win Saturday, but could be a fitness thing on the day.Comment
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Going to be very difficult for me to move off Altior. Despite going over and racing on Cyrname's 'home turf'
However, there are two things that really concern me with Cyrname
That Ascot Chase - the race itself!
Cyrname's performance at Ascot was very impressive, both times and it appears the galloping right handed nature of the track suit he extremely well
My problem with that race is... it's in February, a few weeks before the MAIN EVENT, most [horses] having been put away. Yeah, there's some big names that have race in that Ascot Chase, but they end up being nothing more than
1) Grade 1 horses on the decline
or
2) horses that are no better than Grade 2
2018 - Waiting Patiently, won 'impressively', remember the commentator calling out the slashed odds for WP to take the King George. Been disappointing since. Grade 2 horse
2017 - Cue Card, won by 15 lengths. Proven Grade 1 horse, on the decline
2016 - Silviniaco Conti, won by 20 lengths. Proven Grade 1 horse, on the decline
2015 - Balder Succes. Grade 2 horse
2014 - Captain Chris - Won by 19 lengths. Grade 1 horse on the decline
False Comparisons
Seeing a lot of form comparisons being draw with Politologue being the marker. Firstly, these are two different course and differing distances. Politologue has clearly been a up and down horse last year, and has since undergo a wind op and dropped back down to 2 miles. So these comments 'Cyrname beat Politologue by 20 lengths, but Altior could only beat him by 1' is a load of rubbish. That logic doesnt explain why Min beat Politologue by 20 L next time out but could never beat Altior
Cynrame fitness FTO
Never won first time out, and Nicholl's top ranked have needed a run. Altior has come out time and time again, and won first time out. He'll be fit for tomorrow. Will Cyrname?
Yes, Altior is 9, yes he appears to jump left now on RH course, yes it's not Cheltenham its Ascot, yes he's going up in trip.
On paper, would I say Altior is the BEST 2 miler out there. Yes
On paper, would I say Altior is the BEST 2 and a half miler out there. I think he will get the trip, not doubt. So yes!
Do I think he wins, it all depends on his jumping. I hope with Cyrname in front, he'll tow Altior and HOPEFULLY help straighten him out. As long as it doesnt jump wildly, he wins.
Would I back Altior on Saturday, no. Price is silly short, and I'm already heavily invested with my heart
Hard to post, without being one sided. Some will disagree, but it's not going to change my mind - Altior is just one of those horse
I know one day, he'll get beat, but NOT THIS SATURDAY!Comment
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It's interesting the previous races and the winning distances being so big (but can't really work out why this might be a trend, or misleading form)
I'm not sure what your point is by the previous winners being fading stars, as Cyrname can't be put in that bracket. More of a star from nowhere.
The false comparisons thing I understand to a point, although it's a bit biased to say it's rubbish. As it is all factual. But you're correct that different days/courses/race paces etc have to be factored and not just simply calculate lengths beaten.
I'd like to think Nicholls would have Cyrname fit, and would be disapointed if he uses that as an excuse if he gets beaten, as he surely wants to make a statement.
I do think it's very close call as I think Altior could improve for further.
But the negatives for him jumping left added to Cyrname jumping almost perfectly at this course mean I'll be backing Cyrname.
But it's just that one race (and to a lesser extent the handicap he won) that stops me from going heavy.
Even though everything tells me I should believe the form of that race. It was just one race and Altior has impressed me more often (against lesser opposition though).
I can't decide how big a bet to make.
PS,
Using Bold type looks like a poker tell to me. I sense real doubt.Comment
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Cyrname will be ready no doubts about that Nicholls will have him as fit as he can be.
The 'Grade 1 horses on the decline' may well be a comment that applies to Altior this season.Comment
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The same horses beat by Cyrname were beat even further by Min at Aintree, who has been Altiors punching bag.Originally posted by quevega View PostAltior vs Cyrname.
When Cyrname won his last race, he won by 17 lengths and was not really asked much.
It's hard to crab the rating as the horses in behind (all 5 of them) were all rated in the 160's, and had similar lines of form against each other, here and there. It's pretty much impossible to suggest they all ran below par. It's far more reasonable to say that they ran to their ratings actually.
From memory, none had any real jumping excuses on the day either (could be wrong on this)
Altior - since his First Champion chase win, where he faced four horses rated in the 160's (including Douvan who fell) - He has been rated in the 170's ever since.
In the 6 races he has contested since that race, he has only faced 5 horses rated above 160. And only ever ran in one race where he faced 2 at the same time (politologue and Min in this years champion), a race in which Sceaux Royal earned his highest rating and Altior beat him next time up at Sandown.
The horses he has beat in the 160's are. Last 6 races in reverse order.
Sceaux Royal
Politologue & Min
Fox Norton
0
Un de Sceaux
0
Basically he's been beating a bunch of inferiors, who've been getting closer to him. And he never beat Politologue and Fox Norton as far as cyrname did that day.
He's rubbish
Getting more and more convinced that Cyrname will win Saturday, but could be a fitness thing on the day.Comment
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Personally I don't think Altior was the same horse after his fantastic race against UDS in the mud last year.Originally posted by ELEGANTLY TASTED View PostComment
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Aftertiming alert - My only bets for Haydock are BDM 7/4 and Highland Hunter 16/1 & 12.5
Mark Howard mentions this race in particular for Highland Hunter in OJA so took a chance on him at the prices.
Apologies for not posting earlier - been a hectic week.Comment
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I think I agreed with Opatcho that we could go back and forth in the form for a while.Originally posted by Folski View Post
The obvious point was the class of horses that Altior has beaten vs the class of horses in that one race Cyrname won.
It's an easier argument to suggest one or two horses may have underperformed or outperformed from their previous rating. But not so much 5 vs 1.
The class of opponent Altior has faced has been inferior overall, and one or two of of the 160+ rated opponents earnt their rating in defeat to him.Comment
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Going to be a great weekend that for sure.
Today - Birchdale, Fred & Master Debonair treble @ 14/1. I like Didero Vallis in the 2.40 @ 4/1. Really impressed me at the festival last year and there's every chance with in form Venetia Williams there will be further improvement from the ex Millins/Ricci horse. The one I like in the 3.45 is Malaya @ 8/1. Back over hurdles after debut over fences. Doesn't surprise me, Nichols often does this. I really like her and she has some good form including over C&D. She beat Monsieur Lecoq giving away 2lbs in the Imperial Cup at Sandown. That form looks very good indeed with Monsieur Lecoq going on to win the Welsh Champion Hurdle and a credible 3rd at Cheltenham last week. 8/1 EW seems like a good bet to me.
Re tomorrow, will have a look at the entire card later but on the big 2, it's the Altior (8/13) and Lostintranslation (6/4) double for me. I'm in the Cyrname being rated higher than Altior is laughable camp and think Cyrname will play catch me if you can tactics and go off hard, Altior will look momentarily like he is in trouble 3 out and then will stay on past Cyrname and win going away. Re the Betfair Chase, the only bet I had on this was Elegant Escape because his price was just too big for a horse that thrives on soft ground over 3m at this time of year, and I don't see BDM doing what Kauto and Cue Card couldn't by winning this 4 times. He will be vulnerable to a horse with more improvement and I think the world of Lostintranslation. He has to prove he can step into open grade 1 company and it will be his first real test, but this is a proper animal whose jumping display LTO was as good a round of jumping you are likely to see. If he relishes the step up to 3m like he did at Aintree (where tbf I think he beat a tired TOTG not at his best) then I think he could win well and really stake his claim for the Gold Cup in March (his price is so short now, goodness only knows what it will be if he wins tomorrow).Comment
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Think it's time for a VOTE.
We have.
Altior vs Cyname
&
Bristol de Mai vs LostinTransalation.
So what is everyone's Double.
Charlies already gone.
I'll go the opposite Bristol de Mai & Cyrname.Comment
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BALLYOPTIC and CYRNAME
If Lostintranslation is capable of winning tomorrow at this stage of his career then he will become a deserving gold cup favourite and will justify the hype behind the horse. I dont for a minute think that will happen however and expect him to come last.Comment
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Well that wasn’t a good day but can’t complain and would rather good run ended today than tomorrow!Comment
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